Japan's refugee policy is horrible, but no, obviously it isn't the reason why I live here. Who chooses what country to live in based on its refugee policy? I mean apart from refugees.
I doubt the Japanese find their government's refugee policy " horrible " .
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
Japan's refugee policy is horrible, but no, obviously it isn't the reason why I live here. Who chooses what country to live in based on its refugee policy? I mean apart from refugees.
I doubt the Japanese find their government's refugee policy " horrible " .
There are a number of them, they have a variety of different opinions.
I'm sorry, I can't get too worked up about Ms Clennell. The Leave vote was a vote to be unpleasant to foreigners and to self-justify it as something else afterwards. Ms Clennell's deportation and the reaction to it by Leavers is entirely consistent with that.
it;s the way you tell them antifrank Carson
What else can you conclude when the headbangers gleefully praise the deportation of a woman married to a British citizen since 1990, with children and a grandchild based here who are British citizens?
The loss of the country's sense of decency is to be deeply sorrowed. But this is an instance of something that has already happened and not itself a watershed.
There's no reason to believe that similar cases didn't occur at any stage after we introduced immigration controls for Commonwealth nationals.
For example this case:
' An A-level student has been deported to Mauritius after a last-ditch bid to let her stay in the country was denied.
A judge at London's Law Courts refused to grant an emergency injunction to block the removal of Mauritian teenager Yashika Bageerathi from Britain.
The 19-year-old has now been sent back alone to her home country, separated from her mother and her siblings, after immigration authorities refused her claim for asylum.
The decision slaps down a high-profile campaign which had sought to reverse the decision to deport Ms Bageerathi, a promising student, before she was able to take her A-level exams. '
Anyone want to check back to see who was or wasn't getting upset by that deportation.
Why would someone from Mauritius apply for asylum in the UK - were the Mauritian government persecuting her for being their political opponent or was her life in danger if she returned there?
IIRC it was said to be an abusive family situation.
Another deportation story where emotions run high, but facts are scant. From the little I’ve read on the subject, she arrived from Mauritius with her mother and siblings and attempted to claim asylum on the grounds of an abusive family member back home. As with all these cases, it is the glacially slow process that adds to the heart ache as friends, local links and education are made in the interim.
Any idea how this will play out? Assuming refusing it will only fan the flames. Grant them the referendum and see what happens.
She certainly won't grant any referendum until Brexit has been completed and the SNP win an overall majority at the next Holyrood elections with it in their manifesto (or at the bare minimum maintain the present majority with the Scottish Greens)
If Theresa May does not want to grant the SNP a second referendum, she should perhaps also refrain from ill-judged hostages to fortune like this: Prime Minister Theresa May has urged voters across Scotland to use the upcoming local elections to express their opposition to Scottish independence.
The Polling Matters survey tells us very little of which we weren't already aware.
As I said in my thread header yesterday afternoon (and thank you for the kind words), Corbyn is A problem but he's not THE problem for Labour. That being said, were he to be replaced with A.N Other or S.O Else, it's likely Labour would enjoy a polling uptick simply because those who were anti-Corbyn but pro-Labour would presumably feel able to return to back to the party.
The post-Corbyn Labour leader would obviously have to go through the traditional baptism of fire (more akin to being prodded with Klingon pain sticks) from the hostile media and the anti-Labour crowd on here but were that individual to emerge fairly unscathed, the pressure would be back on May.
May will have her own problems - she was ridden the wave of post 23/6 well and I'm happy to give her credit for that and Labour's implosion has aided her enormously but as we've seen from the business rates issue and the Surrey notareferendum, she faces pressures and I'm yet to be convinced she is willing to confront her own side. Indeed, all I see is the Government caving in to those groups willing to shout a lot.
The point about the business rates revaluation (arguably long overdue as is the revaluation of Council Tax bands but I can't imagine someone like May who wants everyone to like her, to be willing to tackle that little problem) is that it was meant to be part of the process of Government no longer funding local authorities. By getting access to local business rates as a source of income, Government was hoping to disengage from the funding of local authorities by 2019-20. Increasing business rates is part of plugging that funding gap but of course it was done in a cackhanded way and created anomalies which meant a big supermarket actually did quite well and the local shop very badly and we can imagine that went down like a lump of cold sick at many a Conservative MP's surgery.
Being responsive to public demand is part of Government - I get that - but the funding problems of local Government won't be solved if one of the main funding streams for local income isn't available. I suppose we could always charge the good people of England £20 per hour to park in the local car park.
Finally, RIP Sir Gerald Kaufmann. I wonder if "The Silent Men of Westminster" is on YouTube. I think I'll watch it again.
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
There will be plenty of arch-Remainers, student or otherwise. 65% Labour Remainers (possibly higher in this seat) of 67% Labour vote gives around 45% potential targets for the LDS - not that it would be reasonable to expect them to get all of them.
Also, I know realise that Swype managed to turn 'surely' into 'portobello'. It's done that before. Surprising with so mushroom on the keyboard.
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
Don't write off the Greens. Those student types will be more easily swayed by the pro-remain greens rather than Corbyn's brexit-supporting Labour. The LD's will probably still be tainted by tuition fees/'enabling the tories' to win here, but the greens could provide a good fight.
If the Greens can make it about brexit they should have a chance.
Perhaps this lady has made errors but are we a nation that rigidly sticks to rules, is unbending and has a lack of compassion. I'd like to think not.
Our public sector has many Vogon type individuals working in it.
I would think few doubt that abuses of the immigration system have been widespread and in many cases the Home Office make correct judgments. They may say, and others here have echoed the view, that they have followed the "rules".
However in whose interests has it been that these rules have been enforced so rigidly? :
The family - clearly not and especially the British husband who has lost his carer and wife or the wider public and taxpayer who will have to provide care. Nor would I argue the Home Office that appear intransigent and heartless.
The winner is the "system" and all the jobsworths who sail in her and those that support them and opt for the "rules" at all costs at all times.
If someone wants to return to the Commons (Ed, David,Tony), Gorton is about a safer bet as you are likely to get.
Good idea. David or Tony and it probably comes with a free season ticket to the Etihad. Which reminds me the seat also has the Free Trade Hall famous for ......
On topic, this polling is a bit hard to read. I'd be surprised if as many as 24% thought Corbyn was the right person to lead Labour into an election from a "hope they win" point of view.
What we really need is some standard VI polling but with the alternatives to Corbyn named.
Mr. Jessop, my own interest is less than it was. I think it's a combination of the television coverage (and when it is on Channel 4 I can't watch anything pre- or post-race because Steve Jones grates), and the on-track issues (dominant Mercedes, new circuits being rubbish).
We'll have to see how the technical changes affect overtaking, and how close, or not, it is at the sharp end. At least if Mercedes are dominant, my Bottas tip will come off.
My sources, Mr D, lead to suspect that some changes might be coming in publicity/PR, although probably not in the short term-due to contract problems
It seems to me that if common sense had prevailed and discretion that both the Home Office and government exercise day to day had been actioned, then this deportation would have been avoided as it should have been.
When Conservatives talk about the importance of the "family" and relatives taking a more important role in social care we might feel ourselves entitled to a wry smile.
Perhaps this lady has made errors but are we a nation that rigidly sticks to rules, is unbending and has a lack of compassion. I'd like to think not.
That is a fair point, but it is utterly impossible for you, me or anyone not at the sharp end of the case to know whether it is appropriate for the exercise of compassion or not.
Life is about choices - she doesn't like the consequences of the one she made.
Aside from whether the rules are being correctly applied in this case, it's not obvious why it's in anyone's interests to force people to choose between looking after their parents when they get sick and looking after their spouse when they get sick later on.
I think the reasonable cause for disagreement here (if the case is being correctly reported) is whether the problem is these specific rules, the way the rules were applied, or whether the entire enterprise is a fool's errand.
Some countries don't allow dual nationality. If people from those countries choose to marry elsewhere they are then forced into a choice of where they ultimately wish to end up. Not a choice they want - but a choice they face. They need to discuss this choice with family and friends in advance and make a mature considered decision. I suspect Singapore takes this route because they are too small to be a viable 'fall back optoin' if their citizens leave but then wish to return later in life. In the freedom or living standards dilemma they chose living standards.
No ... I think Lee Kuan Yew made the choice for them!
Japan's refugee policy is horrible, but no, obviously it isn't the reason why I live here. Who chooses what country to live in based on its refugee policy? I mean apart from refugees.
I doubt the Japanese find their government's refugee policy " horrible " .
There are a number of them, they have a variety of different opinions.
That old chestnut, Edmund san. The numbers speak for themselves.
A nation that pays far too much attention to buzzfeed, it would seem.
Individual immigration issues can be sad - but the rules are there for a reason. See last nighht's thread for far more even handed detail on this case.
I dont think the full facts have been established on this case. Googling her and finding random stories on the internet is not the same as reading the home office files. The basic point is that even though she has a family here, 2 generations, and is caring for her ill british husband she is still being deported and that is what most people find outrageous. But the rules are the rules.
When even the Daily Mail has a supportive article you know the PB Tories are out on their own.
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
27% students, 29% Muslim, 57% living in rented accomodation, should be ideal territory for Corbyn, though the students may be angry at his "betrayal" over Brexit. I expect that Muslims are much more dependable voters than students, and they probably aren't particularly exercised by Brexit, so it should be an easy Labour hold with Lib Dems second.
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
It seems to me that if common sense had prevailed and discretion that both the Home Office and government exercise day to day had been actioned, then this deportation would have been avoided as it should have been.
When Conservatives talk about the importance of the "family" and relatives taking a more important role in social care we might feel ourselves entitled to a wry smile.
Perhaps this lady has made errors but are we a nation that rigidly sticks to rules, is unbending and has a lack of compassion. I'd like to think not.
That is a fair point, but it is utterly impossible for you, me or anyone not at the sharp end of the case to know whether it is appropriate for the exercise of compassion or not.
I accept that reservation but on the balance of the evidence in the public domain I think it's fair to say we are not dealing with a marriage of convenience, internet bride or scam.
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
Don't write off the Greens. Those student types will be more easily swayed by the pro-remain greens rather than Corbyn's brexit-supporting Labour. The LD's will probably still be tainted by tuition fees/'enabling the tories' to win here, but the greens could provide a good fight.
If the Greens can make it about brexit they should have a chance.
The only group which has swung to Labour since the last general election is green voters
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
27% students, 29% Muslim, 57% living in rented accomodation, should be ideal territory for Corbyn, though the students may be angry at his "betrayal" over Brexit. I expect that Muslims are much more dependable voters than students, and they probably aren't particularly exercised by Brexit, so it should be an easy Labour hold with Lib Dems second.
Agreed and if any group prioritises the class struggle over the EU it is left-wing students
If they hold the by election in May, I'm calling it now, massive Lab to LD swing now.
The Labour-Tory swing is the important thing (For the model I'm developing). Which way will that be ?
Lab to Con swing.
There'll be a massive unwind of the personal vote. I suspect the swing will be more down to a major fall in the Lab share of the vote than a massive increase in the Tory share of the vote.
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
John McDonnell has issued an extraordinary warning to the Corbynite left that a “soft coup” is in progress to unseat Jeremy Corbyn. McDonnell accuses an alliance of Labour centrists and “the Murdoch media empire” of working “covertly” to undermine the leader, taking the unusual step of naming Sunday Times journalist James Lyons, suggesting Lyons has “regularly received leaks from within the Labour Party – usually used to attack Jeremy and his team“. The text appeared yesterday on the hard-left Labour Briefing website.
Perhaps this lady has made errors but are we a nation that rigidly sticks to rules, is unbending and has a lack of compassion. I'd like to think not.
Our public sector has many Vogon type individuals working in it.
I would think few doubt that abuses of the immigration system have been widespread and in many cases the Home Office make correct judgments. They may say, and others here have echoed the view, that they have followed the "rules".
However in whose interests has it been that these rules have been enforced so rigidly? :
The family - clearly not and especially the British husband who has lost his carer and wife or the wider public and taxpayer who will have to provide care. Nor would I argue the Home Office that appear intransigent and heartless.
The winner is the "system" and all the jobsworths who sail in her and those that support them and opt for the "rules" at all costs at all times.
The alternative to fact based systems are ones that run on opinion which generate similar issues (Atos medical boarding, social care systems for children). The one advantage of a fact based system is that it is easier to administer.
In many of these issues, the government and public sector are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
McDonnell: "The coup plotters are willing to sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they regain control of the Party than it is to win elections."
Pot, Kettle!
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
If they hold the by election in May, I'm calling it now, massive Lab to LD swing now.
The Labour-Tory swing is the important thing (For the model I'm developing). Which way will that be ?
"There is a raging battle between Councillor Rabnawaz Akbar, Councillor Julie Reid and Councillor Luthfur Rahman to replace Sir Gerald, as they believe there could be a by-election very soon. Afzal Khan MEP is also positioning himself in the event of a vacancy but is trying to keep himself out of local arguments. Multiple very senior sources tell me that these local figures are running open campaigns. Rahman and Akbar are said to have a “poisonous” relationship."
Brilliant trolling by the interviewer, who clearly picks up that Corbyn is close to exploding. Also unfortunate for Corbyn, the stil looks markedly madder than the video (which is still pretyy bonkers though. Corbyn 6/4 to go this year, with it being still only Feb, begins to look like value
McDonnell: "The coup plotters are willing to sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they regain control of the Party than it is to win elections."
Pot, Kettle!
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
Mike's planning on using it, in one of those amusing pile ups, at one point yesterday we had six guest threads ready to use.
I was worried there for a moment that a new LibDem MP for Manchester Gorton would require the Auchentennach Fine Pie empire to branch out to the wilds of the land of the red shoes and fashion victims ....
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
That bit doesn't make sense to me. You don't normally apply for ILR. It is a status that comes from being resident for a period of time and meeting various other criteria. More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
Immigration is Joseph Heller's Catch-22 in non-metaphor. So you apply for a temporary visa to stay permanently in the UK with your family. The immigration official knows this is your purpose and in principle doesn't have an objection to it, but if he suspects you will overstay your visa that means rejection. Another one: Immigration are on the lookout for those that will take jobs away from indigenous Brits and, above all, any sign that you might require welfare and other resources from the State. But the way you avoid falling back on the State is to have a job.
The UK Border Agency is inefficient, arbitrary and incompetent at levels that would surprise people who haven't come into contact with it. I don't know whether other countries' immigration "services" are just as bad. In my experience the UKBA isn't downright nasty, so I suppose that's something.
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
Ed is of course already an MP, so it's Tony then?
Almost certainly not, Blair is also enjoying his millions and despises Corbyn Labour and this is one seat which in a straight Blair v Green contest the Green candidate could win
McDonnell: "The coup plotters are willing to sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they regain control of the Party than it is to win elections."
Pot, Kettle!
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
Mike's planning on using it, in one of those amusing pile ups, at one point yesterday we had six guest threads ready to use.
We're two down, four to go.
So many people wanting to write about AV!
Actually, there have been some great guest threads - thanks to all for taking the time to inform us and make us think.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
Ed is of course already an MP, so it's Tony then?
Almost certainly not, Blair is also enjoying his millions and despises Corbyn Labour and this is one seat which in a straight Blair v Green contest the Green candidate could win
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
Ed is of course already an MP, so it's Tony then?
Almost certainly not, Blair is also enjoying his millions and despises Corbyn Labour and this is one seat which in a straight Blair v Green contest the Green candidate could win
Gorton would be a good seat for George Galloway to return triumphantly to Labour.
Perhaps this lady has made errors but are we a nation that rigidly sticks to rules, is unbending and has a lack of compassion. I'd like to think not.
Our public sector has many Vogon type individuals working in it.
I would think few doubt that abuses of the immigration system have been widespread and in many cases the Home Office make correct judgments. They may say, and others here have echoed the view, that they have followed the "rules".
However in whose interests has it been that these rules have been enforced so rigidly? :
The family - clearly not and especially the British husband who has lost his carer and wife or the wider public and taxpayer who will have to provide care. Nor would I argue the Home Office that appear intransigent and heartless.
The winner is the "system" and all the jobsworths who sail in her and those that support them and opt for the "rules" at all costs at all times.
The alternative to fact based systems are ones that run on opinion which generate similar issues (Atos medical boarding, social care systems for children). The one advantage of a fact based system is that it is easier to administer.
In many of these issues, the government and public sector are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
I refer you to my comment at 9.37am.
It makes you wonder whether instead of all the man hours involved in deporting this woman that a Home Office bod couldn't at an early stage recognize the nature of this case and walk the family through the system.
However it seems as if the Home Office prefers to prosecute a worst case option rather than exercise a reasonable judgement for the benefit of a British family.
King Cole, online options would be popular, and some would enjoy tailored packages (some people might only want races in a convenient timezone, for example).
Might well be contracts forbidding such things, though. Can't imagine Sky would be happy.
McDonnell: "The coup plotters are willing to sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they regain control of the Party than it is to win elections."
Pot, Kettle!
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
Then raise the scarlet standard high Beneath its folds we'll live and die Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer We'll keep the red flag flying here.
That always seems to me to have creepy undertones of "we'll string the cowards and traitors up from lampposts in due course".
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
Ed is of course already an MP, so it's Tony then?
Almost certainly not, Blair is also enjoying his millions and despises Corbyn Labour and this is one seat which in a straight Blair v Green contest the Green candidate could win
Agree that it won't be Blair. I doubt he would like to fill in the register of interest with all his outside earnings.
Any idea how this will play out? Assuming refusing it will only fan the flames. Grant them the referendum and see what happens.
She certainly won't grant any referendum until Brexit has been completed and the SNP win an overall majority at the next Holyrood elections with it in their manifesto (or at the bare minimum maintain the present majority with the Scottish Greens)
If Theresa May does not want to grant the SNP a second referendum, she should perhaps also refrain from ill-judged hostages to fortune like this: Prime Minister Theresa May has urged voters across Scotland to use the upcoming local elections to express their opposition to Scottish independence.
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
Ed is of course already an MP, so it's Tony then?
Almost certainly not, Blair is also enjoying his millions and despises Corbyn Labour and this is one seat which in a straight Blair v Green contest the Green candidate could win
Gorton would be a good seat for George Galloway to return triumphantly to Labour.
Certainly Galloway would be more likely to put his name forward than Blair in this seat
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
I am not talking about Visitor's visas. If you come in on one of those and overstay you will be deported and blacklisted. It looks like Mrs Clennel fell between two stools: she no longer qualified for a Returning Resident Visa because she had a gap of over two years while her husband worked in Singapore and she looked after her parents, but for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
Of course the events of November 1990 in the Conservative Party are in no way similar, For years afterward, there was huge ill-will among Conservatives over what happened and what the Party did to Margaret Thatcher.
No, it's not a left-right thing at all - look at what happened to IDS. The right are more than capable of treachery and betrayal (as are all other parties).
I don't quite see the need to make it a theme about the "left".
McDonnell: "The coup plotters are willing to sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they regain control of the Party than it is to win elections."
Pot, Kettle!
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
Then raise the scarlet standard high Beneath its folds we'll live and die Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer We'll keep the red flag flying here.
That always seems to me to have creepy undertones of "we'll string the cowards and traitors up from lampposts in due course".
Not TB’s version then
Don’t let that scarlet banner float We need the middle classes vote Although our ancient comrades sneer We’ll stay in power for many a year.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
Maybe. I'm guessing you haven't had intimate dealings with the UKBA!
Anyway, @rcs1000, this will be the first time in France that presidential candidates debate each other on TV before the first round, so I am not persuaded that the 2015 regionals are a suitable yardstick. This year's primaries, much more recent and in both of which non-favourites shone brightly in TV debates and then went on to win, are more useful. The only other such event was for the SP primary of 2011, in which that didn't happen, but that was long before Trump and this is now. Opinion is practically unanimous that Le Pen will crush Macron in any debate. For that reason, I think Hamon and Fillon and possibly even Mélenchon would have a better chance than Macron against Le Pen in the second round. Le Pen is nowhere near as much of a pariah as she was. Her campaign also outclasses her rivals on social media, as the Financial Times has warned. Playing the Nordic card suggests that Macron's advisers don't really get the Twitter era.
Something could happen to Le Pen, such as arrest and indictment. If she fits it into her narrative of telling the EU where to get off, that could strengthen her. Or it could destroy her chances. But the trolls won't be stood down. Dupont-Aignan may be a reserve.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
Maybe. I'm guessing you haven't had intimate dealings with the UKBA!
I have. Went to Lunar House in Croydon many times as my wife went through the hoops. The bottom line is - do what they ask when they ask and it will be fine. Fail to give the papers they ask for or do so late and it'll take forever. Oh...and apply for citizenship. Trying to spend your whole life in the arrivals lounge is not going to cut the mustard. They're jobsworths managing a process. Get with the process.
The meme of betrayal is quite strong on the Left. I have written a thread on just this topic which OGH may or may not use.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
Of course the events of November 1990 in the Conservative Party are in no way similar, For years afterward, there was huge ill-will among Conservatives over what happened and what the Party did to Margaret Thatcher.
No, it's not a left-right thing at all - look at what happened to IDS. The right are more than capable of treachery and betrayal (as are all other parties).
I don't quite see the need to make it a theme about the "left".
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
Maybe. I'm guessing you haven't had intimate dealings with the UKBA!
I have. Went to Lunar House in Croydon many times as my wife went through the hoops. The bottom line is - do what they ask when they ask and it will be fine. Fail to give the papers they ask for or do so late and it'll take forever. Oh...and apply for citizenship. Trying to spend your whole life in the arrivals lounge is not going to cut the mustard. They're jobsworths managing a process. Get with the process.
I agree that's part of it. It's possible Mrs Clennell didn't follow the process, or got so hung up with trying to reclaim residence status she damaged her chances of starting anew. Previous rejections will count against her even if she meets criteria. Knowing how to play the system is important, having connections helps and maybe most important, luck.
This is like the time Kimi Raikkonen was declared the winner of the 2003 Brazilian Grand Prix, but then had to hand it over to Giancarlo Fisichella the following week because the FIA had calculated correctly who was leading at the last complete lap before the race was red flagged.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
Perhaps so and the family may have made all sorts of mistakes over the years.
However to my mind the essence of this story is whether their marriage of 27 years is a scam and should government agencies be there in the interests of their citizens both as individuals and in collective greater good.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
Maybe. I'm guessing you haven't had intimate dealings with the UKBA!
Indeed I have. From permission to stay, to indefinite leave to remain, to citizenship. Follow the system and it works. Cut corners or ignore the rules and you may end up in trouble. What we have now is one side of a story and the UKBA unable to comment. Forgive me if I'm a little sceptical that we've had the whole story.....
If Labour fail to win Gorton, I would hope Corbyn would be finished. The downside might be wall to wall coverage of Tim Farron hiring a larger minibus.
Corbyn would definitely go. Labour will win, I bet any money.
Given Corbyn can squeeze the Green vote who came second in 2015 and it is full of students Manchester Gorton could even produce a rare pro Labour swing, it is an ideal by election for Corbyn after the Copeland disaster
They'll be more than cancelled out by Lab-Lib defections, surely. The Greens will portobello lose second place though.
It is studentville central, can't see that many swapping Corbyn for Farron
27% students, 29% Muslim, 57% living in rented accomodation, should be ideal territory for Corbyn, though the students may be angry at his "betrayal" over Brexit. I expect that Muslims are much more dependable voters than students, and they probably aren't particularly exercised by Brexit, so it should be an easy Labour hold with Lib Dems second.
Imagine the Gorton Labour constituency selection committee. 'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
Doubt even that majority would tempt David Miliband given the big pay cut and move from Manhattan it would entail plus it is Corbynista central and not ideally suited for Balls either
Ed is of course already an MP, so it's Tony then?
Almost certainly not, Blair is also enjoying his millions and despises Corbyn Labour and this is one seat which in a straight Blair v Green contest the Green candidate could win
Gorton would be a good seat for George Galloway to return triumphantly to Labour.
That's scarily plausible. Not likely, but plausible.
How on Earth can there now not be a challenge over the summer? Corbyn looks like he's completely lost the plot. As @stodge said in yesterday's thread, the government need a functioning opposition who at least look like they're a government-in-waiting. This shambles don't have any policies and don't have any serious personalities.
But McDonnell’s article was written about a week ago, before the Copeland defeat. It was prompted by Tony Blair’s speech on Brexit and Lord Mandelson’s admission that he tries to undermine Corbyn every day. A spokesman for McDonnell said that this article “does not represent [McDonnell’s] current view”.
There is a wider lesson for anyone who cares to take note of it. The SNP do not speak for Scotland. At worst, they speak for less than half of it. Admittedly, what they lack in numbers, they compensate for in volume and arrogance. But it is a profound mistake for anybody trying to do “the right thing for Scotland” to listen only to demands being made by the ascendant minority.
That point has urgent application in the context of drum-beating for a second referendum on independence. While all the manoeuvring in preparation for such an announcement provides interminable media fodder, it is much more difficult for the majority who have absolutely no desire for such an event to make themselves heard. The mistake would be to discount them.
How on Earth can there now not be a challenge over the summer? Corbyn looks like he's completely lost the plot. As @stodge said in yesterday's thread, the government need a functioning opposition who at least look like they're a government-in-waiting. This shambles don't have any policies and don't have any serious personalities.
What do you mean no policies...21st century socialism..It's like failed 1970s socialism but with added pandering to terrorists.
The PLP's problem stems back to Owen Thingy's challenge last year. Now Corbyn has had (And will have perhaps in May) poor actual election results, it would be the ideal time to give it a go. But they've given it a go once, and although they are entitled and probably should give it another push the utterly dire candidate and timing the first time round damages their ability to do so a second time.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
The former Home Secretary and current Prime Minister had six years to sort something out. Regardless of this case, and Brexit too, I've yet to be convinced Theresa May feels very strongly about immigration one way or the other. If she does, then she probably does not have a good solution.
Most of the accounts are omitting non-trivial details.
Arrived UK 1988 Married 1992 - granted indefinite leave to remain - provided she did 'remain' 1993 - left UK 1999 - returned to UK - 'indefinite leave to remain' had lapsed as she had not done what she'd said she'd do and 'remained' 1999 - applied for indefinite leave to remain - has been turned down multiple times.
When you apply for 'indefinite leave to remain' its made very clear that you do have to 'remain' and prolonged absences - a couple of years, say - would lead to it being revoked - she was out for six.
More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
As a Singaporean she can come to the UK without a visa
for reasons that haven't been revealed, she didn't get a Family of a Settled Person visa either.
She's had 18 years to sort something out......
Perhaps so and the family may have made all sorts of mistakes over the years.
However to my mind the essence of this story is whether their marriage of 27 years is a scam and should government agencies be there in the interests of their citizens both as individuals and in collective greater good.
Epic fail from the Home Office.
I think that's right. Meeting the criteria isn't good enough. You have to know how to play the system. As always, those who are educated and well connected will succeed where ordinary people who think, why wouldn't they give me a visa, won't. Even so, you need luck. Decisions are very arbitrary,
Comments
The Polling Matters survey tells us very little of which we weren't already aware.
As I said in my thread header yesterday afternoon (and thank you for the kind words), Corbyn is A problem but he's not THE problem for Labour. That being said, were he to be replaced with A.N Other or S.O Else, it's likely Labour would enjoy a polling uptick simply because those who were anti-Corbyn but pro-Labour would presumably feel able to return to back to the party.
The post-Corbyn Labour leader would obviously have to go through the traditional baptism of fire (more akin to being prodded with Klingon pain sticks) from the hostile media and the anti-Labour crowd on here but were that individual to emerge fairly unscathed, the pressure would be back on May.
May will have her own problems - she was ridden the wave of post 23/6 well and I'm happy to give her credit for that and Labour's implosion has aided her enormously but as we've seen from the business rates issue and the Surrey notareferendum, she faces pressures and I'm yet to be convinced she is willing to confront her own side. Indeed, all I see is the Government caving in to those groups willing to shout a lot.
The point about the business rates revaluation (arguably long overdue as is the revaluation of Council Tax bands but I can't imagine someone like May who wants everyone to like her, to be willing to tackle that little problem) is that it was meant to be part of the process of Government no longer funding local authorities. By getting access to local business rates as a source of income, Government was hoping to disengage from the funding of local authorities by 2019-20. Increasing business rates is part of plugging that funding gap but of course it was done in a cackhanded way and created anomalies which meant a big supermarket actually did quite well and the local shop very badly and we can imagine that went down like a lump of cold sick at many a Conservative MP's surgery.
Being responsive to public demand is part of Government - I get that - but the funding problems of local Government won't be solved if one of the main funding streams for local income isn't available. I suppose we could always charge the good people of England £20 per hour to park in the local car park.
Finally, RIP Sir Gerald Kaufmann. I wonder if "The Silent Men of Westminster" is on YouTube. I think I'll watch it again.
Also, I know realise that Swype managed to turn 'surely' into 'portobello'. It's done that before. Surprising with so mushroom on the keyboard.
If the Greens can make it about brexit they should have a chance.
However in whose interests has it been that these rules have been enforced so rigidly? :
The family - clearly not and especially the British husband who has lost his carer and wife or the wider public and taxpayer who will have to provide care. Nor would I argue the Home Office that appear intransigent and heartless.
The winner is the "system" and all the jobsworths who sail in her and those that support them and opt for the "rules" at all costs at all times.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36211789
What we really need is some standard VI polling but with the alternatives to Corbyn named.
They were supportive of that Guantanamo inmate who trousered money and then joined IS. T
Usually best to find out the facts first and then come to a view.
'Thank you Mr Balls, please tell Mr Blair to come in and ask both Mr Milibands to stand by.'
If they hold the by election in May, I'm calling it now, massive Lab to LD swing now.
There'll be a massive unwind of the personal vote. I suspect the swing will be more down to a major fall in the Lab share of the vote than a massive increase in the Tory share of the vote.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/27/mcdonnell-soft-coup-underway-murdoch-moderates-behind-plot/
In many of these issues, the government and public sector are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
For a fictional version see, for instance, A Very British Coup by Chris Mullin or the TV series G.B.H.
http://www.writeyou.co.uk/manchestergortonbyelection
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2957633/jeremy-corbyn-says-he-takes-his-share-of-responsibility-for-losing-the-copeland-seat-to-the-tories-but-he-will-stay-on-as-leader-to-finish-the-job/
Brilliant trolling by the interviewer, who clearly picks up that Corbyn is close to exploding. Also unfortunate for Corbyn, the stil looks markedly madder than the video (which is still pretyy bonkers though. Corbyn 6/4 to go this year, with it being still only Feb, begins to look like value
We're two down, four to go.
Phew ....
That bit doesn't make sense to me. You don't normally apply for ILR. It is a status that comes from being resident for a period of time and meeting various other criteria. More likely she applied for temporary entry visas, which were turned down.
Immigration is Joseph Heller's Catch-22 in non-metaphor. So you apply for a temporary visa to stay permanently in the UK with your family. The immigration official knows this is your purpose and in principle doesn't have an objection to it, but if he suspects you will overstay your visa that means rejection. Another one: Immigration are on the lookout for those that will take jobs away from indigenous Brits and, above all, any sign that you might require welfare and other resources from the State. But the way you avoid falling back on the State is to have a job.
The UK Border Agency is inefficient, arbitrary and incompetent at levels that would surprise people who haven't come into contact with it. I don't know whether other countries' immigration "services" are just as bad. In my experience the UKBA isn't downright nasty, so I suppose that's something.
Political party 'plots' to gain seats. Next the Telegraph will have an exclusive on the sun rising in the morning.
Actually, there have been some great guest threads - thanks to all for taking the time to inform us and make us think.
It makes you wonder whether instead of all the man hours involved in deporting this woman that a Home Office bod couldn't at an early stage recognize the nature of this case and walk the family through the system.
However it seems as if the Home Office prefers to prosecute a worst case option rather than exercise a reasonable judgement for the benefit of a British family.
Might well be contracts forbidding such things, though. Can't imagine Sky would be happy.
Beneath its folds we'll live and die
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer
We'll keep the red flag flying here.
That always seems to me to have creepy undertones of "we'll string the cowards and traitors up from lampposts in due course".
I doubt he would like to fill in the register of interest with all his outside earnings.
https://twitter.com/PwC/status/835206435105562624
No, it's not a left-right thing at all - look at what happened to IDS. The right are more than capable of treachery and betrayal (as are all other parties).
I don't quite see the need to make it a theme about the "left".
Don’t let that scarlet banner float
We need the middle classes vote
Although our ancient comrades sneer
We’ll stay in power for many a year.
Something could happen to Le Pen, such as arrest and indictment. If she fits it into her narrative of telling the EU where to get off, that could strengthen her. Or it could destroy her chances. But the trolls won't be stood down. Dupont-Aignan may be a reserve.
Hilariously hubristic, though it was tough to see how they could f*ck it up. Until they did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DKDaSd-4nY
However to my mind the essence of this story is whether their marriage of 27 years is a scam and should government agencies be there in the interests of their citizens both as individuals and in collective greater good.
Epic fail from the Home Office.
https://twitter.com/samhaqitv/status/836153454431199237
At least it confirms (if any doubt remained) what he thinks of the PLP.....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/27/lords-article-50-bill-debate-gordon-brown-leads-tributes-to-gerald-kaufman-politics-live?page=with:block-58b3f844e4b05f755cc0cd70#block-58b3f844e4b05f755cc0cd70
That point has urgent application in the context of drum-beating for a second referendum on independence. While all the manoeuvring in preparation for such an announcement provides interminable media fodder, it is much more difficult for the majority who have absolutely no desire for such an event to make themselves heard. The mistake would be to discount them.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-westminster-should-kick-out-indyref2-1-4375506
But they've given it a go once, and although they are entitled and probably should give it another push the utterly dire candidate and timing the first time round damages their ability to do so a second time.
Plenty of Lib Dems to flood into Gorton.