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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » POLL ALERT: Labour has a ‘Corbyn problem’ and it’s not going away
A new Polling Matters / Opinium survey, taken before the Copeland and Stoke by-elections, shows that voters think Corbyn is the wrong person to lead Labour into a General Election, with those considering voting Labour more likely to do so if he is replaced. Keiran Pedley explains.
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I was robbed, robbed I tell you!
Pause for dramatic effect :
"RobD"
Wrong envelope ....
The real winner of the New Thread Oscar is ....
Extra long pause for acute dramatic effect :
"JackW"
my postman, the postman's wife and her dog - Spot .....
Tears ....
Can't remember the rest .....
"La la la la la ....
We're all in La La Land now
..................................
Someone sang that to OGH once ..... not any more .....
Yours, Jeremy Corbyn
OMG, OMG, OMG – wrong film named best picture at Oscars…! - Gerald Kaufman. RIP.
http://labourbriefing.squarespace.com/home/2017/2/26/the-soft-coup-is-under-way
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you.
Truly a new day of shocks has dawned, has it not?!?!
What a totally futile exercise it has been this year attempting to turn a profit by betting on the Oscars.
Despite my having correctly picked the winner in 17 of the 24 categories, I still succeeded in showing a loss of 1.75 units or 7% (25 units invested with 23.25 units returned) on account of the miniscule odds available on the favourites which were as short as 1/20, most of which were clearly therefore foregone conclusions.
The only way to make any money is to find a gem of an outsider, as Roger succeeded in doing last year, or by identifying 3 or 4 winners at odds rather better than evens. An impossible task on this occasion.
Oh well, there's always next year!
Pot, Kettle!
First!
Cant see Doc Nuttall trying again here, his scouse accent not likely to go down too well, and Aaron Banks' comments on pushing the immigrant line yesterday also tricky here.
I expect a whole series of threads with observations like "The above numbers clearly show that Tim Farron is part of the problem....The solution is obvious. The LibDems need new leadership. Whether it will get it (and when) is anybody’s guess."
I thought they printed the nominations on the outside of the envelope. I think I've heard a story that someone once didn't actually open the envelope and assumed the winner was the first name printed on the outside! Luckily, it was actually the winner. So it would be interesting to know how the nominations were read out in this case.
Say one thing and mean whatever.
Here's the link from yesterday, out of the UK from 1992 to 2013 - http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporean-fighting-deportation-from-britain
He’s been getting a bad deal from the media ever since he refused a Government position under Clegg.
What kind of nation have we become?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO
Damn.
Of course it was results like this that made the Labour vote so much less efficient than it had been in the Blair landslides. Piling up votes where they did least good.
I think Corbyn exacerbates that tendency too. He does appeal to a hard core Labour supporter far more left wing that the country as a whole. Kieran's analysis shows that this is at the cost of repelling those whose support is needed to do well overall. If that is right then the current polling/electoral models probably understate the damage he would do in an election campaign.
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporean-fighting-deportation-from-britain
As for which to believe... The Straits Times or Buzzfeed.. hmmm, that's a tough one.
The local election results and the Richmond Park by-election indicate he's on a good path. His important audience is inside his party and would-be and past supporters.
Corbyn, on the other hand, is in a position (however unlikely) to be PM. His audience should be as much of the electorate as possible. I say should be, as he's rather spectacularly failing at that.
Now the second wave of banzai morons are running straight at the truth with bayonets fixed.
In the name of all that's holy can we just ignore him, please. It's one of the thicker ones this time.though That may or may not help.
Donald Trump
The Academy screw up saved us from 6 hours of thespian moaning and gave the Donald a clean break
Prime Minister Theresa May has urged voters across Scotland to use the upcoming local elections to express their opposition to Scottish independence.
Writing exclusively for Holyrood magazine ahead of the Scottish Conservative conference, the PM frames the local elections, held on 4 May, on constitutional grounds.
May also rejects SNP claims that Scotland’s vote to remain in the European Union has been ignored in Downing Street’s approach to Brexit negotiations, writing that “every voter had an equal say and the collective answer was final”.
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/exclusive-theresa-may-urges-scots-use-local-elections-reject-independence
The couple lived apart for years until she was finally able to re-enter Britain in 2013, on the basis of making another application within the country. She stayed on even though her subsequent applications failed.
We might get away with it
But LOL that Hollywood managed to screw up the biggest award on their biggest night of the year!
If nothing else it should tell us about the measure of his current appeal in his heartlands.
Individual immigration issues can be sad - but the rules are there for a reason. See last nighht's thread for far more even handed detail on this case.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/27/uk-rises-become-third-important-country-company-growth-prospects/
we havent left yet etc..
The basic point is that even though she has a family here, 2 generations, and is caring for her ill british husband she is still being deported and that is what most people find outrageous. But the rules are the rules.
On topic, one has to be careful about this sort of poll, as people sometimes respond to hypotheticals whimsically. "Would you consider voting Labour?" will have a chunk of people who politely say they'll consider anything: the fact that over a third of these (37%) don't care who the leader is shows their lack of genuine interest at this point. On the face of it the figures show a Labour potential of 51%, but in reality I expect it's more likle 40%.
The fact that a fifth of current Labour voters would be less likely to vote Labour if Corbyn was replaced is interesting though again might or might not prove real - it depends partly on whether he stood down voluntarily (which would produce an "oh well, all the best" reaction) or was ousted (which I think would do real damage to the core vote).
Whether of the Balls or Miliband variety....
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4190826/amp/Grandmother-married-Briton-27-years-deported.html