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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

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  • matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    Late to this but many other jurisdictions don't take our 3 year degree courses seriously (views on whether length = quality vary but many make that leap) so heavens knows what they'll make of 2 year degrees.
    The 3 year degrees do waste a lot of time. Some US unis do let you finish early, if you race through the credit (though 2 years would be odd!).

    Not really dissimilar to doing a double degree (two separate bachelors degrees in different subjects) in 4 years, which is quite common e.g. in Australia. (Wasn't this the USP of going to Keele in the UK?)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tony said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    RBS. Just what the f*** is going on?

    Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
    Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
    When? 2040?
    He might well be right. Still, I had a good run with them from 186.9 to 246 - I was expecting a loss but not £7 billion. :>
    So that's about 11/8, over what time period?
    1420.71 Buy 19/08/16
    1833.05 Sell 28/02/17

    After all costs.
    Good effort, and I think you chose the right time to get out - no way that upward trajectory is going to continue!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    edited February 2017
    Brendan O'Neill's epic obituary to the Labour Party. He sounds like @SeanT at his finest, only slightly less sweary.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/labour-finished-cant-blame-corbyn/

    There’ll be an explosion in ‘What now for Labour?’ articles. But they still do not get the yawning, abyssal depth of the crisis they face. They still don’t see that their party isn’t merely in trouble; it’s finished, over, kaput. Labour is a zombie party, a Frankenstein creature patched together from dead slogans and middle-class anti-Tory angst; a living-dead entity utterly incapable of making a connection with the living.
  • Paul Mason has a brand to maintain. He's the go to guy for inflammatory comment about Corbyn and Labour moderates. It gets him TV slots, book deals, radio and TV programme commissions, and plenty of paid trips to conferences around the world. There is no madness in what he's doing. It is sound, hard-nosed commercial logic.

    There are a number of leftie journalists and commentators whose financial well- being is tied to the far left's control of the Labour leadership. When that ends, so does their ability to get work. It's all business.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Interesting who has and has not come out to defend Corbyn today. Has: McDonnell, Cat Smith, Thornberry, Livingstone, Chakrabarti..

    @JohnRentoul: .. Has not: Abbott, Long-Bailey, Rayner ..

    Conspiracy theorists, you may start your engines...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    Late to this but many other jurisdictions don't take our 3 year degree courses seriously (views on whether length = quality vary but many make that leap) so heavens knows what they'll make of 2 year degrees.
    The 3 year degrees do waste a lot of time. Some US unis do let you finish early, if you race through the credit (though 2 years would be odd!).

    Not really dissimilar to doing a double degree (two separate bachelors degrees in different subjects) in 4 years, which is quite common e.g. in Australia. (Wasn't this the USP of going to Keele in the UK?)
    Depends on your view of what a degree is meant to do. I take an, I suspect old fashioned view that it's a time for students to expand their minds (in the widest sense of the word). On current tends they'll be working into their 70s so rushing into work, which is, I assume, the aim, is an incredibly short-termist and superficial way of thinking,

    The risk is that a 2 year degree moves university education to a quasi-spoon feeding experience. I don't think that this is a wise long term strategy on a global basis.

    The interesting thing is that I doubt the better universities will move to this so the end result will be that outcomes will be increasingly stratified. This may be a realistic outcome of the pack them to university regardless of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Interesting who has and has not come out to defend Corbyn today. Has: McDonnell, Cat Smith, Thornberry, Livingstone, Chakrabarti..

    @JohnRentoul: .. Has not: Abbott, Long-Bailey, Rayner ..

    Conspiracy theorists, you may start your engines...

    Dentist appointments?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,290
    True - but they also told Muslims in Stoke they'd go to Hell if they didn't vote Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cookie said:

    True - but they also told Muslims in Stoke they'd go to Hell if they didn't vote Labour.
    Gentler, kinder politics!
  • Scott_P said:
    Much more concise than me but I like my company.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    Cookie said:

    True - but they also told Muslims in Stoke they'd go to Hell if they didn't vote Labour.
    Gentler, kinder politics!
    I forgot about that! Can we get Snell chucked out?
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    French Betfair volatile. Anyone know why?
  • Scott_P said:
    Much more concise than me but I like my company.
    You are more descriptive.

    If we all wrote in the same style the English language would be much inferior.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter puts the Copeland result through the Electoral Calculus model. There's rather a lot of blue in the north of England.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/labour-obliterated-fat-majority-tories-results-had-general-election/

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/835124628641181697

    Darlington, Bishop Auckland and East Middlesbrough gone blue....
  • matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    Late to this but many other jurisdictions don't take our 3 year degree courses seriously (views on whether length = quality vary but many make that leap) so heavens knows what they'll make of 2 year degrees.
    The 3 year degrees do waste a lot of time. Some US unis do let you finish early, if you race through the credit (though 2 years would be odd!).

    Not really dissimilar to doing a double degree (two separate bachelors degrees in different subjects) in 4 years, which is quite common e.g. in Australia. (Wasn't this the USP of going to Keele in the UK?)
    Depends on your view of what a degree is meant to do. I take an, I suspect old fashioned view that it's a time for students to expand their minds (in the widest sense of the word). On current tends they'll be working into their 70s so rushing into work, which is, I assume, the aim, is an incredibly short-termist and superficial way of thinking,

    The risk is that a 2 year degree moves university education to a quasi-spoon feeding experience. I don't think that this is a wise long term strategy on a global basis.

    The interesting thing is that I doubt the better universities will move to this so the end result will be that outcomes will be increasingly stratified. This may be a realistic outcome of the pack them to university regardless of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    Rushing into work might be a bad thing for some but rushing into university at the current costs will be a bad thing for many more.

    In a changing world alternating periods of work and study might well be a better thing.
  • Off topic. Has BBC parliament channel said what election programming they're rerunning this year yet?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Interesting who has and has not come out to defend Corbyn today. Has: McDonnell, Cat Smith, Thornberry, Livingstone, Chakrabarti..

    @JohnRentoul: .. Has not: Abbott, Long-Bailey, Rayner ..

    Conspiracy theorists, you may start your engines...

    Abbott had a sudden headache
  • matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    Late to this but many other jurisdictions don't take our 3 year degree courses seriously (views on whether length = quality vary but many make that leap) so heavens knows what they'll make of 2 year degrees.
    The 3 year degrees do waste a lot of time. Some US unis do let you finish early, if you race through the credit (though 2 years would be odd!).

    Not really dissimilar to doing a double degree (two separate bachelors degrees in different subjects) in 4 years, which is quite common e.g. in Australia. (Wasn't this the USP of going to Keele in the UK?)
    Depends on your view of what a degree is meant to do. I take an, I suspect old fashioned view that it's a time for students to expand their minds (in the widest sense of the word). On current tends they'll be working into their 70s so rushing into work, which is, I assume, the aim, is an incredibly short-termist and superficial way of thinking,

    The risk is that a 2 year degree moves university education to a quasi-spoon feeding experience. I don't think that this is a wise long term strategy on a global basis.

    The interesting thing is that I doubt the better universities will move to this so the end result will be that outcomes will be increasingly stratified. This may be a realistic outcome of the pack them to university regardless of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    A lot of Oxford degrees are now four years: Maths, Physics, Chemisty, Greats etc. although they give you a BA after three and an MSomething after the fourth year. On the other hand one of my friends there did his maths degree in two (back in the days when it was supposed to take three. That mean he graduated at eighteen...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,290
    matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    .
    Depends on your view of what a degree is meant to do. I take an, I suspect old fashioned view that it's a time for students to expand their minds (in the widest sense of the word). On current tends they'll be working into their 70s so rushing into work, which is, I assume, the aim, is an incredibly short-termist and superficial way of thinking,

    The risk is that a 2 year degree moves university education to a quasi-spoon feeding experience. I don't think that this is a wise long term strategy on a global basis.

    The interesting thing is that I doubt the better universities will move to this so the end result will be that outcomes will be increasingly stratified. This may be a realistic outcome of the pack them to university regardless of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    I did an undergraduate degree in the mid-90s, so this isn't exactly current - but my social sciences degree from a Russell Group uni wasn't exactly taxing. It was almost impossible to do well enough to get a first or badly enough to get a 2:2. I did plenty of 'expanding my mind' - if having a generally nice time with some agreeable and like-minded people counts as 'expanding my mind' - but I'm not sure if this would justify the fees of today by itself. Ten years later, I did a one-year postgrad at another Russell Group uni (one and a bit, to be fair) and learned more in that one year than in three years of undergraduatism, even while working one day a week.
    I'd say doing an undergraduate course in two years would be no great stretch. One and a half years should be possible - not least because the academic year only amounts to about half of the calendar year.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Cookie said:

    True - but they also told Muslims in Stoke they'd go to Hell if they didn't vote Labour.
    And at the same time as a courting of the muslim vote there is an increase in anti semitism in the party.

    hmmmmm.
  • https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2432

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/02/23/president-trump-media-quinnipiac-poll/98283962/

    Very interesting. You have to wonder how Trump will be remembered as a President if the majority of Americans continue to see his agenda in this way.

    This survey is even more interesting as it breaks things down along class, gender and racial lines: http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-more-half-disapprove-donald-trump-s-job-performance-n724856

  • Freggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter puts the Copeland result through the Electoral Calculus model. There's rather a lot of blue in the north of England.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/labour-obliterated-fat-majority-tories-results-had-general-election/

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/835124628641181697

    Darlington, Bishop Auckland and East Middlesbrough gone blue....
    Sedgefield might well do so as well if the regional variations are larger.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    There are no words to describe how bad this is for Labour. All you can do is laugh at the party trying to explain the situation to itself.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
  • Cookie said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    .
    Depends on your view of what a degree is meant to do. I take an, I suspect old fashioned view that it's a time for students to expand their minds (in the widest sense of the word). On current tends they'll be working into their 70s so rushing into work, which is, I assume, the aim, is an incredibly short-termist and superficial way of thinking,

    The risk is that a 2 year degree moves university education to a quasi-spoon feeding experience. I don't think that this is a wise long term strategy on a global basis.

    The interesting thing is that I doubt the better universities will move to this so the end result will be that outcomes will be increasingly stratified. This may be a realistic outcome of the pack them to university regardless of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    I did an undergraduate degree in the mid-90s, so this isn't exactly current - but my social sciences degree from a Russell Group uni wasn't exactly taxing. It was almost impossible to do well enough to get a first or badly enough to get a 2:2. I did plenty of 'expanding my mind' - if having a generally nice time with some agreeable and like-minded people counts as 'expanding my mind' - but I'm not sure if this would justify the fees of today by itself. Ten years later, I did a one-year postgrad at another Russell Group uni (one and a bit, to be fair) and learned more in that one year than in three years of undergraduatism, even while working one day a week.
    I'd say doing an undergraduate course in two years would be no great stretch. One and a half years should be possible - not least because the academic year only amounts to about half of the calendar year.
    Doing a full undergraduate course within two years in a STEM subject would be a lot harder than the one many Arts students do.

    With the internet etc you could probably do many Arts degrees without leaving your house.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Mason is a five letter fellow. Fact.
  • SeanT said:

    Cookie said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    .
    Depends of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    I did an undergraduate degree in the mid-90s, so this isn't exactly current - but my social sciences degree from a Russell Group uni wasn't exactly taxing. It was almost impossible to do well enough to get a first or badly enough to get a 2:2. I did plenty of 'expanding my mind' - if having a generally nice time with some agreeable and like-minded people counts as 'expanding my mind' - but I'm not sure if this would justify the fees of today by itself. Ten years later, I did a one-year postgrad at another Russell Group uni (one and a bit, to be fair) and learned more in that one year than in three years of undergraduatism, even while working one day a week.
    I'd say doing an undergraduate course in two years would be no great stretch. One and a half years should be possible - not least because the academic year only amounts to about half of the calendar year.
    I stopped going to lectures after my first term, stopped going to tutorials after my first year. I spent the rest of my three year undergrad Philosophy course at UCL (supposedly one of the world's great universities) doing drugs and drinking cheap beer in the Union bar.

    I had a fabulous time. Met many lifelong friends. Fell in love. Got my heart broken. Expanded my horizons enormously. But the useful educational element of my three year degree could literally have been compressed into about eight weeks.

    I got a 2:2
    That's the difference between a BA and a BSc or a BEng.

    Lab work.

    With the internet you can should be able to do a BA at home (with perhaps a few weekends location based study).

    After all isn't that what the Open University was all about ?
  • Floater said:

    Cookie said:

    True - but they also told Muslims in Stoke they'd go to Hell if they didn't vote Labour.
    And at the same time as a courting of the muslim vote there is an increase in anti semitism in the party.

    hmmmmm.
    On this issue at least, Labour have "done the math".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Just noticed the header of the last thread- perhaps this was Cameron's plan all along, take us out of the EU to nullify UKIP? :smiley:
  • SeanT said:

    Cookie said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    .
    Depends of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    I did an undergraduate degree in the mid-90s, so this isn't exactly current - but my social sciences degree from a Russell Group uni wasn't exactly taxing. It was almost impossible to do well enough to get a first or badly enough to get a 2:2. I did plenty of 'expanding my mind' - if having a generally nice time with some agreeable and like-minded people counts as 'expanding my mind' - but I'm not sure if this would justify the fees of today by itself. Ten years later, I did a one-year postgrad at another Russell Group uni (one and a bit, to be fair) and learned more in that one year than in three years of undergraduatism, even while working one day a week.
    I'd say doing an undergraduate course in two years would be no great stretch. One and a half years should be possible - not least because the academic year only amounts to about half of the calendar year.
    I stopped going to lectures after my first term, stopped going to tutorials after my first year. I spent the rest of my three year undergrad Philosophy course at UCL (supposedly one of the world's great universities) doing drugs and drinking cheap beer in the Union bar.

    I had a fabulous time. Met many lifelong friends. Fell in love. Got my heart broken. Expanded my horizons enormously. But the useful educational element of my three year degree could literally have been compressed into about eight weeks.

    I got a 2:2
    ... and you never learned to punt.
  • nielh said:

    There are no words to describe how bad this is for Labour. All you can do is laugh at the party trying to explain the situation to itself.

    Corbyn is actively destroying the labour party to turn it into his own image of a protest movement thereby satisfying his own pathetic vanity and meaning he has no need to have any ambition to become PM having to make real decisions that have consequences.

    As a conservative I am angry with the fool but cannot even start to think how labour MP's feel but the time is now to collectively turn their back on him, preferably publicly at a PMQ's, and elect their own shadow opposition ignoring Corbyn and his acolytes.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    RobD said:

    Just noticed the header of the last thread- perhaps this was Cameron's plan all along, take us out of the EU to nullify UKIP? :smiley:

    Haha

    Mission accomplished!
  • I see the Leave vote continues to have disastrous consequences:

    ' Aerospace giant Boeing has announced plans to build its first European factory in Sheffield.

    The £20 million facility will manufacture parts and systems used on aeroplane wings for the company’s aircraft.

    The firm will also initiate a major research and development programme with the University of Sheffield’s Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) to develop new manufacturing techniques.

    The proposed 2,300 sq m factory will be built alongside the AMRC, between Sheffield and Rotherham. It is expected to begin hiring new employees next year. '

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-4256176/Boeing-build-European-factory-Sheffield.html

    Just think, if Cameron had kept his word he would now be regarded as one of the greatest politicians of all time.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148

    I see the Leave vote continues to have disastrous consequences:

    ' Aerospace giant Boeing has announced plans to build its first European factory in Sheffield.

    The £20 million facility will manufacture parts and systems used on aeroplane wings for the company’s aircraft.

    The firm will also initiate a major research and development programme with the University of Sheffield’s Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) to develop new manufacturing techniques.

    The proposed 2,300 sq m factory will be built alongside the AMRC, between Sheffield and Rotherham. It is expected to begin hiring new employees next year. '

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-4256176/Boeing-build-European-factory-Sheffield.html

    Just think, if Cameron had kept his word he would now be regarded as one of the greatest politicians of all time.

    Well of course, it is far easier to get planning permission on barren wasteland :)
  • Freggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter puts the Copeland result through the Electoral Calculus model. There's rather a lot of blue in the north of England.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/labour-obliterated-fat-majority-tories-results-had-general-election/

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/835124628641181697

    Darlington, Bishop Auckland and East Middlesbrough gone blue....
    Sedgefield might well do so as well if the regional variations are larger.
    Wasn't that the seat of one Anthony Blair?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    scoop said:

    Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.


    Interesting bit of info about Trudy. She lives in Bootle which is currently in Copeland, but when the constituency is abolished with boundary review Bootle gets transferred into Barrow. I don't think Trudy is going to be a one term MP.
  • notme said:

    scoop said:

    Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.


    Interesting bit of info about Trudy. She lives in Bootle which is currently in Copeland, but when the constituency is abolished with boundary review Bootle gets transferred into Barrow. I don't think Trudy is going to be a one term MP.
    Is that why John Woodcock is so angry today
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/

    She's not wrong.
    Must be demob happy, and ready to pick up her P45. Doubt that she has an incumbency advantage in Fleetwood and Lancaster.
    Oh how we laughed, and laughed, and laughed and laughed again:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-32333596
  • RobD said:

    Just noticed the header of the last thread- perhaps this was Cameron's plan all along, take us out of the EU to nullify UKIP? :smiley:

    And consign Osborne to the back benches. Win double.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    edited February 2017
    SeanT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
    It will be IRONIC if the ICE TWINS saves the Guardian. OK maybe also utterly impossible. But there is a piquancy.
    You may have given them enough of a boost to survive for one or a couple more issues. :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/835232610066575360

    I bet May is hating the FTPA right about now.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    notme said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/

    She's not wrong.
    Must be demob happy, and ready to pick up her P45. Doubt that she has an incumbency advantage in Fleetwood and Lancaster.
    Oh how we laughed, and laughed, and laughed and laughed again:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-32333596
    Makes screen grab. Thanks for that, a real gem.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
    What will be interesting to see is how long May's new direction for the conservative party lasts. My gut instinct is that it is simply a temporary thing to get Brexit through, and to see off the UKIP challenge. But only time will tell.
  • nielh said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
    What will be interesting to see is how long May's new direction for the conservative party lasts. My gut instinct is that it is simply a temporary thing to get Brexit through, and to see off the UKIP challenge. But only time will tell.
    I think that what you see in May today is what you will get throughout her Premiership as she takes over the centre ground of politics
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Just love that first sentence. Very good thread header.

    As I said earlier today I think that even this understates Labour's problems. As UKIP lose relevance and any remaining coherence it is likely that the Tories will gain disproportionately bringing Stoke and the like into play.

    We will always have an opposition, no matter how weak and at the moment there is no obvious substitute for Labour at the moment. That is the one redeeming feature of the situation for Labour. It isn't much.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    nielh said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
    What will be interesting to see is how long May's new direction for the conservative party lasts. My gut instinct is that it is simply a temporary thing to get Brexit through, and to see off the UKIP challenge. But only time will tell.
    I think that what you see in May today is what you will get throughout her Premiership as she takes over the centre ground of politics
    May is not centre grounded. She is a right winger through and through. That is how she has kept UKIP in check.
  • surbiton said:

    nielh said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
    What will be interesting to see is how long May's new direction for the conservative party lasts. My gut instinct is that it is simply a temporary thing to get Brexit through, and to see off the UKIP challenge. But only time will tell.
    I think that what you see in May today is what you will get throughout her Premiership as she takes over the centre ground of politics
    May is not centre grounded. She is a right winger through and through. That is how she has kept UKIP in check.
    Hardly - she voted remain and she has several policies that imitate labour. You may wish to paint her as right wing but she most certainly is not
  • NEW THREAD

  • isam said:
    What point is Paul Mason trying to make?
  • tlg86 said:

    isam said:
    How utterly delusional and pathetic
    People are voting Tory in the full knowledge that the NHS is collapsing, being privatised, that refugee children are being left molested at Calais and that a bunch of Tory incompetents are in charge - because they want Brexit.

    Evidence ?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    AndyJS said:

    scoop said:

    nunu said:

    scoop said:

    Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.

    Do you think people on Copeland would think as May's accent as posh or not?
    Listening to her now on the BBC news stood outside the West County Hotel in the market square. Not sure her accent comes into the equation. My point was this event would have been unthinkable 5 years ago.
    The new Tory MP has a nice accent. Didn't realise west Cumbrian sounded like that. It sounds a bit like a soft version of Scouse.

    They generally don't, but as you move down the south of the county the accent becomes much more Lancashire.

    This is generally west Cumbrian, though I use an extreme example:

    https://youtu.be/xDvrVLXlzLg
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Excellent article Alastair, many thanks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2432

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/02/23/president-trump-media-quinnipiac-poll/98283962/

    Very interesting. You have to wonder how Trump will be remembered as a President if the majority of Americans continue to see his agenda in this way.

    This survey is even more interesting as it breaks things down along class, gender and racial lines: http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-more-half-disapprove-donald-trump-s-job-performance-n724856

    Have you seen this article?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/red-state-blue-city/513857/

    It was very noticeable on US election night that the reporting district maps colored rural and small town areas red, and the cities blue, even in "Red states" Indiana and Kentucky for example, but also Florida and Georgia. This divide has always been there, but is now even more extreme. 88/100 of Americas biggest metropolitan areas voted Hillary.

    Same here of course, except with US colours reversed. Even on a microscale: in Copeland Whitehaven was red and the countryside blue.

    One silver lining of the Tories taking some urban seats is that they might have to start taking urban issues more seriously. Indeed I muse that if Leicester's 3 urban (Labour) seats and Leics 7 (Tory) rural and suburban seats were pie segment shaped rather than a Labour yolk surrounded by Tory eggwhite, then both parties would start to pay attention to each others core concerns. Better still have the whole lot as 2 five member STV constituencies.
  • surbiton said:

    nielh said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    I see our very own @seanT 'Ice Twins' is being given away free with tomorrow's Guardian at Tesco Express stores.

    If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)

    Shhhh!!!
    Quite some kudos in that, to have one's work offered as an incentive to buy the Guardian.

    Good evening, everyone. Left-leaning I may be, but I admit to real pleasure in hearing that the Conservatives gained Copeland. All things considered, I feel they deserve it. What's more, I hope that such an historic win will motivate those in government to see to it that Copeland's voters have no cause to regret their choice.
    What will be interesting to see is how long May's new direction for the conservative party lasts. My gut instinct is that it is simply a temporary thing to get Brexit through, and to see off the UKIP challenge. But only time will tell.
    I think that what you see in May today is what you will get throughout her Premiership as she takes over the centre ground of politics
    May is not centre grounded. She is a right winger through and through. That is how she has kept UKIP in check.
    And this attitude, ladies and gentlemen, is why Labour are going backwards...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    PS hard to believe they still have them , do they have them in Edinburgh

    When I was at school, I do remember going to the chippy at lunchtime and getting pizza. But that was not yesterday
    Yes I had once or twice after 10 or 12 pints many many moons ago but hard to believe still on the go. Steak pies were the same.
    Embarrassed to admit that I too tried this Scottish delicacy a couple of times in my youth at the end of a boozy student night out.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Cyan said:

    Google give me the following numbers of results for these four web searches:

    penelopegate 1100000
    fillongate 87900
    lepengate 5470
    macrongate 5180

    The Guardian and the Telegraph are now saying that both Fillon and Le Pen have been accused of irregularities, seemingly having "forgotten" Macrongate. Not that many French voters care what they say.

    Russian strategy will probably be to take out Macron after they've dispensed with Fillon. Do it one at a time, as in the US Republican primaries. But there is resistance in the French state elite and perhaps Le Pen will even be arrested. Stakes will be raised. I think this particular terrain is OK for her because even if the French police arrest her in this connection it's the EU she's alleged to have diddled.

    Waiting for Le Pen to drift before increasing my investment.



    I would have thought that Le Pen being arrested over charges relating to the EU might actually further harden her core vote (not much room there, but still) and even win her some more sympathizers.
  • https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2432

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/02/23/president-trump-media-quinnipiac-poll/98283962/

    Very interesting. You have to wonder how Trump will be remembered as a President if the majority of Americans continue to see his agenda in this way.

    This survey is even more interesting as it breaks things down along class, gender and racial lines: http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-more-half-disapprove-donald-trump-s-job-performance-n724856

    Have you seen this article?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/red-state-blue-city/513857/

    It was very noticeable on US election night that the reporting district maps colored rural and small town areas red, and the cities blue, even in "Red states" Indiana and Kentucky for example, but also Florida and Georgia. This divide has always been there, but is now even more extreme. 88/100 of Americas biggest metropolitan areas voted Hillary.

    Same here of course, except with US colours reversed. Even on a microscale: in Copeland Whitehaven was red and the countryside blue.

    One silver lining of the Tories taking some urban seats is that they might have to start taking urban issues more seriously. Indeed I muse that if Leicester's 3 urban (Labour) seats and Leics 7 (Tory) rural and suburban seats were pie segment shaped rather than a Labour yolk surrounded by Tory eggwhite, then both parties would start to pay attention to each others core concerns. Better still have the whole lot as 2 five member STV constituencies.
    Cameron and Osborne (and Clegg) spent a decade looking for votes in the metropolitan areas.

    And all they got were the locals putting their Xs in ever increasing numbers in the Labour box.

    Remember what the last by-election of the Cameron premiership was ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooting_by-election,_2016

    A constituency which they had been expecting to turn Blue for ten years.

    But its result was very different to Copeland.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Hope not. If they charge us 5x more, we'll be paying $10,500 per month in medical insurance.
  • SeanT said:

    Cookie said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    .
    Depends of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    I did an undergraduate degree in the mid-90s, so this isn't exactly current - but my social sciences degree from a Russell Group uni wasn't exactly taxing. It was almost impossible to do well enough to get a first or badly enough to get a 2:2. I did plenty of 'expanding my mind' - if having a generally nice time with some agreeable and like-minded people counts as 'expanding my mind' - but I'm not sure if this would justify the fees of today by itself. Ten years later, I did a one-year postgrad at another Russell Group uni (one and a bit, to be fair) and learned more in that one year than in three years of undergraduatism, even while working one day a week.
    I'd say doing an undergraduate course in two years would be no great stretch. One and a half years should be possible - not least because the academic year only amounts to about half of the calendar year.
    I stopped going to lectures after my first term, stopped going to tutorials after my first year. I spent the rest of my three year undergrad Philosophy course at UCL (supposedly one of the world's great universities) doing drugs and drinking cheap beer in the Union bar.

    I had a fabulous time. Met many lifelong friends. Fell in love. Got my heart broken. Expanded my horizons enormously. But the useful educational element of my three year degree could literally have been compressed into about eight weeks.

    I got a 2:2
    That's the difference between a BA and a BSc or a BEng.

    Lab work.

    With the internet you can should be able to do a BA at home (with perhaps a few weekends location based study).

    After all isn't that what the Open University was all about ?
    The OU Geology BSc is considered one of the best degrees in the subject in the country.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    SeanT said:

    Cookie said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    .
    Depends of appropriateness approach but will not sit well with the equalities of outcomes thinkers.

    I did an undergraduate degree in the mid-90s, so this isn't exactly current - but my social sciences degree from a Russell Group uni wasn't exactly taxing. It was almost impossible to do well enough to get a first or badly enough to get a 2:2. I did plenty of 'expanding my mind' - if having a generally nice time with some agreeable and like-minded people counts as 'expanding my mind' - but I'm not sure if this would justify the fees of today by itself. Ten years later, I did a one-year postgrad at another Russell Group uni (one and a bit, to be fair) and learned more in that one year than in three years of undergraduatism, even while working one day a week.
    I'd say doing an undergraduate course in two years would be no great stretch. One and a half years should be possible - not least because the academic year only amounts to about half of the calendar year.
    I stopped going to lectures after my first term, stopped going to tutorials after my first year. I spent the rest of my three year undergrad Philosophy course at UCL (supposedly one of the world's great universities) doing drugs and drinking cheap beer in the Union bar.

    I had a fabulous time. Met many lifelong friends. Fell in love. Got my heart broken. Expanded my horizons enormously. But the useful educational element of my three year degree could literally have been compressed into about eight weeks.

    I got a 2:2
    When you got your 2:2 though is very significant. Until well into the 1980s most people received a 2:2 despite no more than 10% being on a degree course at all. Most people today being awarded 2:1s would almost certainly have got the same thirty years ago. It just serves to highlight the massive grade inflation over the years!
This discussion has been closed.