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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?
It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened. We should try to do better. In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications. Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold.
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Oh and first
CSPAN
WATCH: Donald Trump past #CPAC appearances https://t.co/T5OATSiiIe https://t.co/BEQTR1d0vK
The real criticism of Conservative policies comes from the Liberal Democrats. Their problem is that the media tend to not report what they say.
The result is that the general public do not realise just how dreadful the Tories are.
FPT. I doubt anyone on the left wants to listen but there you go.
Excellent. Thank you Mr Meeks.
13% of the country voted for a load of candidates with no experience of running anything because they liked Farage on the telly
Two of the statements are definitely false, one is a matter of view ("seem to spend") - it might seem that way, but it's confirmation bias; and the last relies on an incorrect premise.
http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg
I think the Lib Dems do well when they get stuck in to campaigning in an area, especially when other parties do next to nothing. In Richmond, for example, there was no Conservative campaign, but the Lib Dem campaign was extremely lively, as it was in recent local government byelections in Rotherham and Sheffield. In Stoke and Copeland, other parties were far more energetic, so their vote held up, and the lively Lib Dem campaign did not stand out.
With the Lib Dems being highly energised as a result of recent disasters, it seems to me that they can make excellent progress in many parts of the country, regardless of the way people there voted in the Referendum.
That puts them on 26% if universally applied across GB.
Many foods can be made delicious with butter.
How many 'quite a few' turns out to be is very hard to say at this stage, of course. However, they do have a point when they say they are the only opposition to the Tories at the moment; the only opposition with a clear message, anyway.
Mallon (SDLP) N Belfast @ Evens
Attwood (SDLP) W Belfast @ 7/2
Stewart (UUP) E Antrim @2/1
McCandless (UUP) E L/derry @ 33/1
Dolan (SF) F&ST @ 15/8
Overend (UUP) M Ulster @ Evens
Kennedy (UUP) N & A @ 4/11
McGuigan (SF) N Antrim @ 8/15
Kelly (SDLP) Upper Bann @ 11/2
I had pieces about each seat but for now it's pointless.
If PP odds were used as basis of betfair, there's some great lay options. But it's all come down now.
Small margins of improvement in unfavourable seats, much greater gains in the affluent parts of the south east.
What we ideally need to see now is a straight two way fight between Lib and Lab in somewhere like Hornsey or Southwark.
Well off, but where the Tories aren't really in the race.
I think the NHS is still very important - one of the touchstone issues along with house prices and the cost and ease of motoring. The point is, the public can pick out empty sloganeering when they see it. It's not a substitute for a proper policy on something they know is difficult.
Which would be a bloody nightmare.
The markets are there alright. Politics, Northern Ireland constituencies.
I'm on all your tips anyhow ::)
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/835161244315316225
Edited extra bit: were*
That's the penalty for procrastinating instead of working...
EDIT Sadly it was a composing error rather than an editing error.
Have you seen Last Tango in Paris?
Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.
Alonso's said podium finishes are not enough this year. May well be bluster, but he's hoping, it seems, to return to wins.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39079883
I actually backed him at shorter odds (still long, though) but Vandoorne is 101 for the title. Each way, particularly given Australia's circuit has historically favoured McLaren, that could be worth a small sum as a trading bet, to be hedged immediately after Oz.
The odds had all changed by the time I found them again. Most were so far out from what I thought that I still went in. McCandless moved from 33/1 to 14/1. Which is probably too short.
He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.
And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
Edit: note your correction above.
Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/
This was Ryan Clayton from Bob Creamer group "Americans Take Action" handing Russian flags. Ryan was forcibly removed. You edited that out. https://t.co/hKwywREjn5
But there isn't and there won't be.
The fees just go up and up.
We do need a proper Opposition. A part of me is curious to see just what would happen if Corbyn led Labour into an election, though.
The government are quite happy to retrospectively change the terms of existing loans though.
They did it just last year.
All we are saying is give us Keir Starmer !
Le Pen 26 ..down 0.5
Macron 23.5 ..up 1
Fillon 20.5 NC
Hamon 13 .. down 0.5
http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/24-02-2017.pdf
PS hard to believe they still have them , do they have them in Edinburgh
It is done so we can calculate things like share of the vote/swings etc from the last general election.
For example at GE2015 Rochester and Strood was called a Con Hold and Clacton a UKIP gain.
"Let Copeland be our final warning, not the latest signpost on the road to decline."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/02/copeland-must-be-labours-final-warning
Looks like Corbyn is now on borrowed time. I really don't think Tories can rely on him being there in 2019/20.
So Con winning Copeland in 2020 will be a gain
The end looks nigh for Jezza for me.
One last push from Woodcock in Barrow should tip the barge.