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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    Top notch analysis Alastair.

    Oh and first
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Trump previous speeches at CPAC

    CSPAN
    WATCH: Donald Trump past #CPAC appearances https://t.co/T5OATSiiIe https://t.co/BEQTR1d0vK
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    edited February 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Paul Nuttall, through his strained relationship with the truth, seemed to put the nut into Nuttall and in doing so he ensured that UKIP got the all out of f-all.

    Been chuckling at that all morning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Labour does have three years. There is time to throw Corbyn overboard. But they also need to decide what they're there for.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Great header.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-39067931
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Labour will flirt with being a left wing party once every two generations. It will end disastrously. This is what we have learned.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    The advantage that the Conservatives have is that under Corbyn, the Labour Party no longer criticises the Conservatives - indeed they seem to spend all their time going into the voting lobby to support what the Conservatives are doing.

    The real criticism of Conservative policies comes from the Liberal Democrats. Their problem is that the media tend to not report what they say.

    The result is that the general public do not realise just how dreadful the Tories are.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    I'm not sure that UKIP is done for, I think Nuttall dragged them down. A better leader might make a fair bit of difference. UKIP really need a Farage Mk. II, someone who is a "big beast" and cuts through the media barracking.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/labour-finished-cant-blame-corbyn/

    FPT. I doubt anyone on the left wants to listen but there you go.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Excellent. Thank you Mr Meeks.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    PClipp said:

    The advantage that the Conservatives have is that under Corbyn, the Labour Party no longer criticises the Conservatives - indeed they seem to spend all their time going into the voting lobby to support what the Conservatives are doing.

    The real criticism of Conservative policies comes from the Liberal Democrats. Their problem is that the media tend to not report what they say.

    The result is that the general public do not realise just how dreadful the Tories are.

    Hahahaha. It's all a media plot to fool the public - now where have we heard that before. :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/835152285009334273
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    glw said:

    I'm not sure that UKIP is done for, I think Nuttall dragged them down. A better leader might make a fair bit of difference. UKIP really need a Farage Mk. II, someone who is a "big beast" and cuts through the media barracking.

    There isn't anyone else. Farage is irreplaceable, they should really have jacked it in when he quit

    13% of the country voted for a load of candidates with no experience of running anything because they liked Farage on the telly
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    PClipp said:

    The result is that the general public do not realise just how dreadful the Tories are.

    "It's not us, it's the electorate that are wrong."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/835152285009334273

    Are the men in grey boiler suits starting to work themselves up to making an intervention in around 12 months time?
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Carswell for UKIP leader?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    Are we agreed Council elections in May are the very last failure the Labour Party can take? Ps, Ranieri for LOTO
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Cheers Mr Meeks, another cracker, hard to disagree or find fault with any of that.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    felix said:

    PClipp said:

    The advantage that the Conservatives have is that under Corbyn, the Labour Party no longer criticises the Conservatives - indeed they seem to spend all their time going into the voting lobby to support what the Conservatives are doing.

    The real criticism of Conservative policies comes from the Liberal Democrats. Their problem is that the media tend to not report what they say.

    The result is that the general public do not realise just how dreadful the Tories are.

    Hahahaha. It's all a media plot to fool the public - now where have we heard that before. :)
    Five statements, only one of which is unarguably true, though not for Clipp's reason - the media don't report what the LDs say because the LDs, with all of 9 MPs, are irrelevant.

    Two of the statements are definitely false, one is a matter of view ("seem to spend") - it might seem that way, but it's confirmation bias; and the last relies on an incorrect premise.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Mr Meeks makes great play of the Leave-Remain divide, but I am not convinced he is right in claiming that the Leave areas are necessarily difficult for the Lib Dems.

    I think the Lib Dems do well when they get stuck in to campaigning in an area, especially when other parties do next to nothing. In Richmond, for example, there was no Conservative campaign, but the Lib Dem campaign was extremely lively, as it was in recent local government byelections in Rotherham and Sheffield. In Stoke and Copeland, other parties were far more energetic, so their vote held up, and the lively Lib Dem campaign did not stand out.

    With the Lib Dems being highly energised as a result of recent disasters, it seems to me that they can make excellent progress in many parts of the country, regardless of the way people there voted in the Referendum.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    grabcocque said:

    Labour will flirt with being a left wing party once every two generations. It will end disastrously. This is what we have learned.

    This is because at the end of the day voters care most about their jobs. The state of the NHS et al is highly important but still secondary to that primary consideration. Voters sense Corbyn puts narrow political dogma above that primary consideration as evidenced by the film clip that he wished to see the end of nuclear power in the UK to the cheers of his far left supporters. Fatal in Copeland obviously but not much less so elsewhere.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    MrsB said:

    Carswell for UKIP leader?

    Well it would certainly be interesting. He seems to very different to average UKIP. More a radical libertarian who is a bit obsessed with democratic things like recall and referenda.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/835154904108961793
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    I'm not sure if this has been remarked upon, but Labour have strung together five straight falls in vote share since the referendum. The average drop relative to GE2015 is 5%.

    That puts them on 26% if universally applied across GB.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    The weekend papers are going to be a sight to behold wrt to Corbyn and Labour.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Hard to argue with Alastair's piece, except that I think he's been a bit unfair on the LibDems. Unless your expectations were Mark Seniorish, I'd say they did reasonably well in the circumstances. These were two seats where they were starting from nowhere, with demographics not favourable to them, and with powerful opponents squeezing them. There's nothing in these two by-elections to suggest that they won't gain quite a few seats in the next GE, subject to how the boundary changes hit them.

    How many 'quite a few' turns out to be is very hard to say at this stage, of course. However, they do have a point when they say they are the only opposition to the Tories at the moment; the only opposition with a clear message, anyway.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    MarkHopkins said:

    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

    How would PB feel about butter as a pizza topping?
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Goddamn. I've spent an hour putting together an article on NIA odds and PP have removed them. For interest only, here were my recs based on what was up.

    Mallon (SDLP) N Belfast @ Evens
    Attwood (SDLP) W Belfast @ 7/2
    Stewart (UUP) E Antrim @2/1
    McCandless (UUP) E L/derry @ 33/1
    Dolan (SF) F&ST @ 15/8
    Overend (UUP) M Ulster @ Evens
    Kennedy (UUP) N & A @ 4/11
    McGuigan (SF) N Antrim @ 8/15
    Kelly (SDLP) Upper Bann @ 11/2

    I had pieces about each seat but for now it's pointless.

    If PP odds were used as basis of betfair, there's some great lay options. But it's all come down now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    There's always sweetcorn, just not necessarily at that stage of the digestive process.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    MrsB said:

    Carswell for UKIP leader?

    Does seem to be an obvious choice. - If a UKIP leader can’t manage to get elected to the commons, give it to the only kipper in the house.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Fletcher, it's irksome when work is wasted because of something like that.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    The Lib Dems have gone in the opposite direction to Labour since the referendum; five straight increases in vote share.

    Small margins of improvement in unfavourable seats, much greater gains in the affluent parts of the south east.

    What we ideally need to see now is a straight two way fight between Lib and Lab in somewhere like Hornsey or Southwark.

    Well off, but where the Tories aren't really in the race.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    RobC said:

    grabcocque said:

    Labour will flirt with being a left wing party once every two generations. It will end disastrously. This is what we have learned.

    This is because at the end of the day voters care most about their jobs. The state of the NHS et al is highly important but still secondary to that primary consideration. Voters sense Corbyn puts narrow political dogma above that primary consideration as evidenced by the film clip that he wished to see the end of nuclear power in the UK to the cheers of his far left supporters. Fatal in Copeland obviously but not much less so elsewhere.
    My emphasis.

    I think the NHS is still very important - one of the touchstone issues along with house prices and the cost and ease of motoring. The point is, the public can pick out empty sloganeering when they see it. It's not a substitute for a proper policy on something they know is difficult.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    rottenborough said:

    The weekend papers are going to be a sight to behold wrt to Corbyn and Labour.

    It makes writing Sunday's threads in advance a bit of a nightmare.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fletcher, it's irksome when work is wasted because of something like that.

    They had a result of DUP 34, SF 25.5, UUP 9.5, SDLP 8, All 7, Grn 2, PBP 1, TUV 1, Ind 1

    Which would be a bloody nightmare.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Goddamn. I've spent an hour putting together an article on NIA odds and PP have removed them. For interest only, here were my recs based on what was up.

    Mallon (SDLP) N Belfast @ Evens
    Attwood (SDLP) W Belfast @ 7/2
    Stewart (UUP) E Antrim @2/1
    McCandless (UUP) E L/derry @ 33/1
    Dolan (SF) F&ST @ 15/8
    Overend (UUP) M Ulster @ Evens
    Kennedy (UUP) N & A @ 4/11
    McGuigan (SF) N Antrim @ 8/15
    Kelly (SDLP) Upper Bann @ 11/2

    I had pieces about each seat but for now it's pointless.

    If PP odds were used as basis of betfair, there's some great lay options. But it's all come down now.

    Cheers, I've put as much as Paddy will accept on all those for a total of 250 stake.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/835159534524121088
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    Kennedy in N & A has been cut to 3-10 btw but I got on the rest at your advised prices.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    edited February 2017
    @Lucian_FLetcher

    The markets are there alright. Politics, Northern Ireland constituencies.

    I'm on all your tips anyhow ::)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ouch

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/835161244315316225
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    So I wasn't dreaming :smiley:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    edited February 2017
    Mr. D, depends. Where you dreaming of eating babies drenched in butter, with pineapple on top?

    Edited extra bit: were*

    That's the penalty for procrastinating instead of working...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. D, depends. Where you dreaming of eating babies drenched in butter, with pineapple on top?

    Edited extra bit: were*

    That's the penalty for procrastinating instead of working...

    Well I wasn't, but you can bet your bottom dollar I will be now :D
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. D, then you probably wouldn't. (My bets all failed in the by-elections. Alas. Woe is me. Behold the Curse of Morris Dancer, and tremble!).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Essexit said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

    How would PB feel about butter as a pizza topping?
    Did you mean Batter, yummy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,559
    Very good analysis @AlastairMeeks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    malcolmg said:

    Essexit said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

    How would PB feel about butter as a pizza topping?
    Did you mean Batter, yummy
    Battered pineapple?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alastair's statement that the LibDems are the "party of Brexit" is surely an editing error .. :smile:

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited February 2017
    JackW said:

    Alastair's statement that the LibDems are the "party of Brexit" is surely an editing error .. :smile:

    I was waiting for someone to spot that!

    EDIT Sadly it was a composing error rather than an editing error.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    AlastairMeeks said:

    JackW said:

    Alastair's statement that the LibDems are the "party of Brexit" is surely an editing error .. :smile:

    I was waiting for someone to spot that!
    No one will spot it now
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MarkHopkins said:

    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

    Tis a versatile comestible.

    Have you seen Last Tango in Paris?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,559
    FF43 said:

    RobC said:

    grabcocque said:

    Labour will flirt with being a left wing party once every two generations. It will end disastrously. This is what we have learned.

    This is because at the end of the day voters care most about their jobs. The state of the NHS et al is highly important but still secondary to that primary consideration. Voters sense Corbyn puts narrow political dogma above that primary consideration as evidenced by the film clip that he wished to see the end of nuclear power in the UK to the cheers of his far left supporters. Fatal in Copeland obviously but not much less so elsewhere.
    My emphasis.

    I think the NHS is still very important - one of the touchstone issues along with house prices and the cost and ease of motoring. The point is, the public can pick out empty sloganeering when they see it. It's not a substitute for a proper policy on something they know is difficult.
    I think it all stems from the public finances, and that people are realising that just throwing more borrowed money at a problem doesn't necessarily make it go away. They're also increasingly suspicious of any politician promising higher spending in any area, without at the same time identifying either what spending will be cut or what taxes will rise to pay for it.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    F1: three days until the first test. A month until the first race weekend.

    Alonso's said podium finishes are not enough this year. May well be bluster, but he's hoping, it seems, to return to wins.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39079883

    I actually backed him at shorter odds (still long, though) but Vandoorne is 101 for the title. Each way, particularly given Australia's circuit has historically favoured McLaren, that could be worth a small sum as a trading bet, to be hedged immediately after Oz.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Pulpstar said:

    @Lucian_FLetcher

    The markets are there alright. Politics, Northern Ireland constituencies.

    I'm on all your tips anyhow ::)

    **sniff**

    The odds had all changed by the time I found them again. Most were so far out from what I thought that I still went in. McCandless moved from 33/1 to 14/1. Which is probably too short.
  • CynosargesCynosarges Posts: 44
    AlastairMeeks said:

    JackW said:

    Alastair's statement that the LibDems are the "party of Brexit" is surely an editing error .. :smile:

    I was waiting for someone to spot that!
    It could be argued that there was no error. You can make a case that both UKIP and the LibDems are the party OF Brexit - i.e. a party that is defining itself using the issue of Brexit. UKIP are the party FOR Brexit, the LibDems are the party AGAINST Brexit, both are parties OF Brexit - without the issue, what are they for?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AlastairMeeks said:

    JackW said:

    Alastair's statement that the LibDems are the "party of Brexit" is surely an editing error .. :smile:

    I was waiting for someone to spot that!

    EDIT Sadly it was a composing error rather than an editing error.
    It takes an old Jacobite to keep you young whippersnappers on the mark .. :smile:
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,559
    edited February 2017
    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    The article is about allowing higher annual fees for two-year intensive degree courses, which on the face of it seems a good idea. There's no mention of what would certainly be illegal retrospective fees for existing graduates, unless the article changed.

    Edit: note your correction above.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,559
    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    James O'Keefe
    This was Ryan Clayton from Bob Creamer group "Americans Take Action" handing Russian flags. Ryan was forcibly removed. You edited that out. https://t.co/hKwywREjn5
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Cynosarges said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    JackW said:

    Alastair's statement that the LibDems are the "party of Brexit" is surely an editing error .. :smile:

    I was waiting for someone to spot that!
    It could be argued that there was no error. You can make a case that both UKIP and the LibDems are the party OF Brexit - i.e. a party that is defining itself using the issue of Brexit. UKIP are the party FOR Brexit, the LibDems are the party AGAINST Brexit, both are parties OF Brexit - without the issue, what are they for?
    Well the Lib Dems always have potholes and barcharts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/

    She's not wrong.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    malcolmg said:

    Essexit said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

    How would PB feel about butter as a pizza topping?
    Did you mean Batter, yummy
    Deep fried pizza...why not indeed.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    PMQs is a microcosm of Labour's irrelevance. When is the last time anyone can remember a single Labour MP asking a question about the economy, or jobs? I know they've got this thing with the NHS running (that worked well in Copeland), but are there any serious people at all left in the PLP?

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/

    Cat Smith, May 2020: "Winning 150 seats was an incredible achievement, from 22 points behind in the polls."
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    Apologies, misread that.

    He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
    For 2 year courses.

    Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.

    And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
    I actually have no problem with upping tuition fees to whatever, so long as there's an equivalent graduate charge/tax imposed. It could be included/added to inheritance tax or something.

    But there isn't and there won't be.

    The fees just go up and up.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/

    She's not wrong.
    Must be demob happy, and ready to pick up her P45. Doubt that she has an incumbency advantage in Fleetwood and Lancaster.
  • scoopscoop Posts: 64
    Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Essexit, in a 600 seat Parliament, it could be lower than that.

    We do need a proper Opposition. A part of me is curious to see just what would happen if Corbyn led Labour into an election, though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Essexit said:

    Deep fried pizza...why not indeed.

    Known as a pizza crunch in Scotland
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Good article. Picking on Labour, it is clear that their metropolitan elite has moved further from its working class base. The elite have found that technology has made them more global and the working class have suffered from globalisation. All the campaigners in the Labour party are elitist or ethnic. No WWC. And I hear this happening now in France and the US for sure. I'm delighted.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Sandpit said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39076191

    Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.

    The article is about allowing higher annual fees for two-year intensive degree courses, which on the face of it seems a good idea. There's no mention of what would certainly be illegal retrospective fees for existing graduates, unless the article changed.

    Edit: note your correction above.
    Yeah. I was semi-trolling with my original post.

    The government are quite happy to retrospectively change the terms of existing loans though.

    They did it just last year.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "If Labour are to avoid a defeat that exceeds that of the Conservatives in 1997 for severity, they need to act fast. Time is not on their side."

    All we are saying is give us Keir Starmer !
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Todays french poll ifop:

    Le Pen 26 ..down 0.5
    Macron 23.5 ..up 1
    Fillon 20.5 NC
    Hamon 13 .. down 0.5

    http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/24-02-2017.pdf
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Good thread header from Alistair. I particularly agree with his assessment of UKIP. They really are a party without a purpose now. They have achieved the aim for which they were created and should now disband.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    williamglenn said:

    malcolmg said:

    Essexit said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    RobC said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    Essexit said:

    PB may be interested or enraged by what I had for lunch today.

    http://i.imgur.com/FzAON5Lh.jpg

    no sweetcorn?
    Pineapple is food of the gods. Sweetcorn is an abomination.
    A fresh ripe sweetcorn cob from the field is delicious with butter.

    Many foods can be made delicious with butter.

    How would PB feel about butter as a pizza topping?
    Did you mean Batter, yummy
    Battered pineapple?
    as per Chinese restaurants yes, though I was joking about battered pizza originally
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Scott_P said:

    Essexit said:

    Deep fried pizza...why not indeed.

    Known as a pizza crunch in Scotland
    Scott, you must mean "East of Scotland"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited February 2017
    malcolmg said:

    Scott, you must mean "East of Scotland"

    Yer man, Kevin Bridges talks about it in his show, so, no...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/835152285009334273

    Or what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Question - following a by-election gain, if the winners hold it at a GE, does it still on the night count as a Gain from the last GE?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    edited February 2017
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott, you must mean "East of Scotland"

    Yer man, Kevin Bridges talks about it in his show, so, no...
    even worse Glasgow, might have known

    PS hard to believe they still have them , do they have them in Edinburgh
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    kle4 said:

    Question - following a by-election gain, if the winners hold it at a GE, does it still on the night count as a Gain from the last GE?

    Yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,374
    kle4 said:

    Question - following a by-election gain, if the winners hold it at a GE, does it still on the night count as a Gain from the last GE?

    Yes it will be considered a gain at the by election.

    It is done so we can calculate things like share of the vote/swings etc from the last general election.

    For example at GE2015 Rochester and Strood was called a Con Hold and Clacton a UKIP gain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    PS hard to believe they still have them , do they have them in Edinburgh

    When I was at school, I do remember going to the chippy at lunchtime and getting pizza. But that was not yesterday
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Prentis:

    "Let Copeland be our final warning, not the latest signpost on the road to decline."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/02/copeland-must-be-labours-final-warning


    Looks like Corbyn is now on borrowed time. I really don't think Tories can rely on him being there in 2019/20.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,559
    kle4 said:

    Question - following a by-election gain, if the winners hold it at a GE, does it still on the night count as a Gain from the last GE?

    Yes, most commentators will compare one GE result to the previous GE result, which nullifies any interim by-election changes.

    So Con winning Copeland in 2020 will be a gain :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/835152285009334273

    Or what?
    Len's effectively got the whip hand over the Labour National Executive Committee.

    The end looks nigh for Jezza for me.

    One last push from Woodcock in Barrow should tip the barge.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Labour are now going beyond parody.

    Cat Smith MP describes Labour's performance in Copeland as "An incredible achivement". That's one way of putting it I guess.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/cat-smith-copeland-incredible-achievement-labour/

    She's not wrong.
    Must be demob happy, and ready to pick up her P45. Doubt that she has an incumbency advantage in Fleetwood and Lancaster.
    or she is on psycho-active drugs.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,653
    Jez is losing the unions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Question - following a by-election gain, if the winners hold it at a GE, does it still on the night count as a Gain from the last GE?

    Yes, most commentators will compare one GE result to the previous GE result, which nullifies any interim by-election changes.

    So Con winning Copeland in 2020 will be a gain :)
    Doubt we will notice it much on the night as vast swathes of Northern England and Midlands fall to the Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/835152285009334273

    Or what?
    Len's effectively got the whip hand over the Labour National Executive Committee.

    The end looks nigh for Jezza for me.

    One last push from Woodcock in Barrow should tip the barge.
    It's more I'm suspicious if he will get other 'final' warnings.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/835152285009334273

    Or what?
    Len's effectively got the whip hand over the Labour National Executive Committee.

    The end looks nigh for Jezza for me.

    One last push from Woodcock in Barrow should tip the barge.
    Losing Leigh to the Tories would be the end surely?
This discussion has been closed.