Good thread header from Alistair. I particularly agree with his assessment of UKIP. They really are a party without a purpose now. They have achieved the aim for which they were created and should now disband.
Without MEPs shortly do you think they will disband or will a rich benefactor keep them going ?
Must be demob happy, and ready to pick up her P45. Doubt that she has an incumbency advantage in Fleetwood and Lancaster.
The draft boundary changes further cut her majority in half to about 500. I suspect the Tories will strongly object to the new proposed Lancashire North seat as being too big and unwieldy. If the commission go back to separate Lancaster and Morecambe seats, both could be notionally Tory.
Good thread header from Alistair. I particularly agree with his assessment of UKIP. They really are a party without a purpose now. They have achieved the aim for which they were created and should now disband.
Without MEPs shortly do you think they will disband or will a rich benefactor keep them going ?
I think they will continue to hang around trying to find a new raison d'etre but unless they are going to become genuinely extremist - in itself a dead end - I don't see what useful.part they can play in politics and really they will just be stroking a few inflated egos.
Must be demob happy, and ready to pick up her P45. Doubt that she has an incumbency advantage in Fleetwood and Lancaster.
The draft boundary changes further cut her majority in half to about 500. I suspect the Tories will strongly object to the new proposed Lancashire North seat as being too big and unwieldy. If the commission go back to separate Lancaster and Morecambe seats, both could be notionally Tory.
I think she will be out at the next GE, there is also the nuclear factor,many from Lancaster and surrounding area earn their living from the 2 Nuclear power stations at Heysham, and there is always hope for a third. There is a new road now connecting the power stations to the M6 and this removes a previous possible problem with building a new power station.
Good thread header from Alistair. I particularly agree with his assessment of UKIP. They really are a party without a purpose now. They have achieved the aim for which they were created and should now disband.
Without MEPs shortly do you think they will disband or will a rich benefactor keep them going ?
I think they will continue to hang around trying to find a new raison d'etre but unless they are going to become genuinely extremist - in itself a dead end - I don't see what useful.part they can play in politics and really they will just be stroking a few inflated egos.
I guess it's worth them hanging around in some form or another for a couple of years, if only to keep the PM honest as the Brexit negotiations go through, but after that they've achieved all they set out to do.
As we see Mr Farage is already making a name for himself in the US, after the MEPs go the only source of public funding with be the Short Money - but that's conditional on Carswell not re-crossing the floor back to Theresa's blue team.
Assuming Brexit goes according to plan, will there be any need for UKIP by 2020? I'm not sure there will be.
Tessa Jowell being brutally honest about Labour on Sky News. Admits that Labour doesn't have any answers to the big questions, or any big policy ideas.
Question - following a by-election gain, if the winners hold it at a GE, does it still on the night count as a Gain from the last GE?
Yes.
At the 2015 election, the BBC displayed everything that had changed hands at a by election as "X WIN" rather than GAIN or HOLD, with verbose explanations from Laura K.
Actually Leigh will be interesting. It is almost identical to Stoke, in terms of Con/UKIP except the Tories start off 2nd.
There is a bigger gap to Labour too but I reckon the Tory vote share will rise...
500 of the TUSC vote to various odds and sods (loony, Ind, Green etc) First up double the raw Lib Dem vote from the GE : 1150 * 2 = 2,300 Give UKIP roughly half of their GE vote 4,500
Set turnout to 40%. It'll be less high profile than Stoke was but the GE vote share is slightly better. Better weather too. Though it is safe Labour so people might not bother. 40% feels right as an estimate anyhow.
That gives 30,400 electorate.
23,100 to distribute between Labour and Tory.
I'll assume a 3% swing from Lab to Tory - as I think it'll be somewhere between Stoke and Copeland... Andy Burnham think what you like of him was reasonably high profile too back in 2015.
76% of the electorate goes for the big two. The gap was 31.9% in 2015, a 6% swing means that is 25.9% - which yields Labour 51.4% (They are losing remainers to the Lib Dems as per Curtice) Tories 25.5%.
Labour 15625 51.4% Tory 7752 25.5% UKIP 4500 14.8% LD 2300 7.6% Other 500 1.6%
So in summary neither Labour or Ukip have the testicular fortitude to change after last nights reaming - there is no hope for either party - just a depressing decline to oblivion.
Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.
Do you think people on Copeland would think as May's accent as posh or not?
When are the grown-ups going to get a grip of the Labour party?
They aren't. It must surely be becoming apparent to even the most stubbornly optimistic of Labour MPs that the Far Left, having won control, are never going to surrender it. Corbyn will not budge and the party membership will not permit his removal.
Those MPs who are still interested in trying to claw their way, somehow, someday, back into power are going to have to break away. It's either that, an entire career in helpless opposition, deselection by loony activists, or being swept away by the electorate. A split is difficult and painful for a host of reasons, but are there any better options left?
The post-Brexit role for UKIP could be as a culturally conservative and in particular immigration-sceptic party - after all, having taken back control of immigration policy, the Conservatives may not actually limit it that much.
There would be a niche for UKIP in working-class Labour seats, but then again FPTP and the fact that UKIP is a tent full of piss mean they'll probably fizzle out.
The post-Brexit role for UKIP could be as a culturally conservative and in particular immigration-sceptic party - after all, having taken back control of immigration policy, the Conservatives may not actually limit it that much.
There would be a niche for UKIP in working-class Labour seats, but then again FPTP and the fact that UKIP is a tent full of piss mean they'll probably fizzle out.
Ukip consistently scores in the low teens in the VI polls, and thus far its numbers appear remarkably resilient. Perhaps it has an irreducible core who are presently unwilling to go elsewhere.
That said, if that situation changes and they do go into real decline, does anyone have a real handle on where the voters might end up going? Would be an awful lot of votes up for grabs!
Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.
Do you think people on Copeland would think as May's accent as posh or not?
Listening to her now on the BBC news stood outside the West County Hotel in the market square. Not sure her accent comes into the equation. My point was this event would have been unthinkable 5 years ago.
The post-Brexit role for UKIP could be as a culturally conservative and in particular immigration-sceptic party - after all, having taken back control of immigration policy, the Conservatives may not actually limit it that much.
There would be a niche for UKIP in working-class Labour seats, but then again FPTP and the fact that UKIP is a tent full of piss mean they'll probably fizzle out.
Ukip consistently scores in the low teens in the VI polls, and thus far its numbers appear remarkably resilient. Perhaps it has an irreducible core who are presently unwilling to go elsewhere.
That said, if that situation changes and they do go into real decline, does anyone have a real handle on where the voters might end up going? Would be an awful lot of votes up for grabs!
Many will have a Conservative party now embracing Brexit to return to. Those who defected from Labour and would never vote Tory are more interesting - they won't vote for Corbyn's Labour, so might end up staying at home.
Sadly it's Farage who's on with Morgan. I'd definitely have watched if it were Ashcroft - his work in amassing the VC collection is both astonishing and moving.
The ironic thing is that Farage probably would have had a very good chance of winning Stoke Central if he'd been the UKIP candidate. He chose exactly the wrong time to take a back seat.
So in summary neither Labour or Ukip have the testicular fortitude to change after last nights reaming - there is no hope for either party - just a depressing decline to oblivion.
Very likely yes.
And remember, both parties' electoral agonies don't end here. Next stop is May, when the Lib Dems are probably going to leave Ukip for dust in terms of gains in the English councils. And north of the border, Sturgeon and Davidson are getting ready to turn off Scottish Labour's life support machine.
Nobody seems to have a clue what purpose a post-Brexit UKIP serves.
In that context, finishing 2nd in Stoke wasn't such a terrible result. What were those 5,000 people voting for?
Finishing second with what was it 20%+ of the vote was not bad at all considering the primary purpose of the party has been achieved. I also note that nobody is asking why the Lib Dems should continue exist despite their having come forth in Stoke and regularly polling behind UKIP, even after the referendum.
So I wonder if some are not approaching the question from the wrong end, as you hint. Why are so many people still voting for UKIP or saying that they will at the next GE? Some on here will no doubt say that such voters are just thick, racists etc. etc. but I don't think that argument holds. It seems to me that there is a kernel of the electorate whose concerns are not being addressed by the two major parties.
The ironic thing is that Farage probably would have had a very good chance of winning Stoke Central if he'd been the UKIP candidate. He chose exactly the wrong time to take a back seat.
Absolutely, it would have been his best chance possibly ever at winning a seat. It appears that, in his own mind, his work here was completed on 23rd June last year.
Jo Johnson to backdate £27k tuition fees for all previous graduates.
Apologies, misread that.
He's just proposing to up tuition fees to £14k/year for *new* students.
For 2 year courses.
Though I'm sure it'll become a 3 year course.
And then of course the payment which won't be met (As an aggregate). How much extra is the taxpayer going to be funding the Unis now ?
Late to this but many other jurisdictions don't take our 3 year degree courses seriously (views on whether length = quality vary but many make that leap) so heavens knows what they'll make of 2 year degrees.
The ironic thing is that Farage probably would have had a very good chance of winning Stoke Central if he'd been the UKIP candidate. He chose exactly the wrong time to take a back seat.
Absolutely, it would have been his best chance possibly ever at winning a seat. It appears that, in his own mind, his work here was completed on 23rd June last year.
Do you think he can be bothered? If you can make a good living appearing on tv/radio/giving speeches, and your whole reason for being in politics has been achieved, why bother being an MP? I don't know that he would be a very good one either! Being leader of UKIP with no seat was probably perfect for him
People are voting Tory in the full knowledge that the NHS is collapsing, being privatised, that refugee children are being left molested at Calais and that a bunch of Tory incompetents are in charge - because they want Brexit.
People are voting Tory in the full knowledge that the NHS is collapsing, being privatised, that refugee children are being left molested at Calais and that a bunch of Tory incompetents are in charge - because they want Brexit.
People who are guided by partisan party loyalty rather than a moral compass baffle me. They are often the biggest hypocrites
Reading between the lines there, there was a breakin at his residence and a shotgun got stolen because it wasn't locked away. Surely that is an offence for which a custodial sentence is appropriate?
Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.
Do you think people on Copeland would think as May's accent as posh or not?
Listening to her now on the BBC news stood outside the West County Hotel in the market square. Not sure her accent comes into the equation. My point was this event would have been unthinkable 5 years ago.
The new Tory MP has a nice accent. Didn't realise west Cumbrian sounded like that. It sounds a bit like a soft version of Scouse.
The ironic thing is that Farage probably would have had a very good chance of winning Stoke Central if he'd been the UKIP candidate. He chose exactly the wrong time to take a back seat.
Absolutely, it would have been his best chance possibly ever at winning a seat. It appears that, in his own mind, his work here was completed on 23rd June last year.
Do you think he can be bothered? If you can make a good living appearing on tv/radio/giving speeches, and your whole reason for being in politics has been achieved, why bother being an MP? I don't know that he would be a very food one either! Being leader of UKIP with no seat was probably perfect for him
Exactly, Farage can't be bothered. He's still getting an MEP salary and allowances, and he's obviously making a good living on the US speaking circuit. Having achieved the realisation of a lifetime last year, I'd be the same if I were in his shoes.
It's quite some midlife crisis....High profile position on newsnight to weird unemployed bloke making less sense than a homeless drunk outside kings cross after 12 cans of special brew.
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Have you read/seen the Big Short? It didn't matter how much evidence there was that a disaster was coming, the price of insuring mortgage bonds didn't increase.
But in this case, presumably the loss just goes to the tax payer?
If I had been asked, I might have been one of the ones who thought the result was excellent for Labour: it means JC could be on the way out sooner than expected.
Back in 2007 I made this comment at another place:
It focuses on a different part of the country but notice the last sentence. I think we saw this prediction come true in Copeland:
' Derbyshire NE, Rother Valley, Don Valley, Bassetlaw and Penistone/Stocksbridge have near identical social makeups and elecion results.
They have a number of characteristics that could bode well for the Conservatives in future:
Extremely white, very few students, no extremes in wealth, socially conservative, distrust of London and Europe, good motorway communications leading to new commuter developments, formerly dominated by old-labour industry (coal) but no longer, discredited local Labour party.
With the right sort of leader (David Davis would be better in these areas than David Cameron) and Rosindell style local candidates the Conservatives would have great potential.
This may sound far-fetched but how many people would have predicted only 10 years ago that the Republicans could win West Virginina (by 15% no less) whilst losing New Hampshire.
This could also apply to the four Labour constituencies in Cumbria. '
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
I wasn't aware of his politics a decade ago and I've been rather shocked by his behaviour since leaving journalism. But I don't think you should underestimate a person's willingness to play a desired role for personal gain. Now he's made enough money and raised his profile, he probably feels he can do and say what he likes.
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
Bit of both...How a music teacher rose to be an economics editor of major factorals programmes has always been a mystery to me.
In comparison, You can question Flanders impartially when was on the bbc, but not her qualifications for the role.
Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.
Do you think people on Copeland would think as May's accent as posh or not?
Listening to her now on the BBC news stood outside the West County Hotel in the market square. Not sure her accent comes into the equation. My point was this event would have been unthinkable 5 years ago.
The new Tory MP has a nice accent. Didn't realise west Cumbrian sounded like that. It sounds a bit like a soft version of Scouse.
She actually lives in Bootle 8 miles from Millom and I understand has lived there for quite awhile.
Well let us hope Trudy Harrison can really make a difference, because Copeland certainly needs it. This area of the UK has been neglected and left behind,it is disconnected from the main infrastructure, and does not benefit from Lake District tourism, even second home owners stay away. Places such as Egremont, and Cleator moor look very unloved, the constituency needs a champion, let us hope Trudy is the one.
Born in Whitehaven spent my formative years in Millom. Just listened to radio 5 and Theresa May doing an interview from Millom. A Conservative Prime Minister in Millom with a Local Conservative MP , shows how far below the bar Labour have traveled in such a short time.
Do you think people on Copeland would think as May's accent as posh or not?
Listening to her now on the BBC news stood outside the West County Hotel in the market square. Not sure her accent comes into the equation. My point was this event would have been unthinkable 5 years ago.
The new Tory MP has a nice accent. Didn't realise west Cumbrian sounded like that. It sounds a bit like a soft version of Scouse.
She actually lives in Bootle 8 miles from Millom and I understand has lived there for quite awhile.
Well let us hope Trudy Harrison can really make a difference, because Copeland certainly needs it. This area of the UK has been neglected and left behind,it is disconnected from the main infrastructure, and does not benefit from Lake District tourism, even second home owners stay away. Places such as Egremont, and Cleator moor look very unloved, the constituency needs a champion, let us hope Trudy is the one.
Voting Conservative against an ineffectual Labour establishment in former mining villages and ports.
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
I wasn't aware of his politics a decade ago and I've been rather shocked by his behaviour since leaving journalism. But I don't think you should underestimate a person's willingness to play a desired role for personal gain. Now he's made enough money and raised his profile, he probably feels he can do and say what he likes.
He says he's still a journalist, only now he can tell the truth.
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
I do not agree with Paul Mason about much but I think his phrase "The Brexit Delusion" is apt...
The new lord chief justice will have to be 65 or younger in order to steer the judiciary through the uncertainties of Brexit, ruling out several leading candidates including Lord Leveson.
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
I do not agree with Paul Mason about much but I think his phrase "The Brexit Delusion" is apt...
Smug lefty remain voter agrees with another smug lefty remain voter . Pass the popcorn....
The Femen intervention at the Le Pen event today ("Marine - feministe fictive!") won't lose her any votes. But I wish newspapers wouldn't call her the only woman running for the French presidency. Nathalie Artaud is also standing.
I'm wondering whether Femen have ever actually caused political harm to someone they've demonstrated against? Can you hire them?
Reading between the lines there, there was a breakin at his residence and a shotgun got stolen because it wasn't locked away. Surely that is an offence for which a custodial sentence is appropriate?
I'm sure the convicted burglar will receive a prison sentence.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
The new lord chief justice will have to be 65 or younger in order to steer the judiciary through the uncertainties of Brexit, ruling out several leading candidates including Lord Leveson.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
When? 2040?
Probably a couple of years of now. Yes, lots(!) of value destruction but the core business is sound. That ABN Amro deal though..... Hubris unlimited.
The Guardian and the Telegraph are now saying that both Fillon and Le Pen have been accused of irregularities, seemingly having "forgotten" Macrongate. Not that many French voters care what they say.
Russian strategy will probably be to take out Macron after they've dispensed with Fillon. Do it one at a time, as in the US Republican primaries. But there is resistance in the French state elite and perhaps Le Pen will even be arrested. Stakes will be raised. I think this particular terrain is OK for her because even if the French police arrest her in this connection it's the EU she's alleged to have diddled.
Waiting for Le Pen to drift before increasing my investment.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
When? 2040?
That's optimistic An analyst today called them 'the jam tomorrow' bank. Which sums it up.
PFI is nearly over, Williams and Glyn has a positive resolution , just the mega US justice dept. fine really to come. Bulk of today's loss was against that upcoming fine.
The new lord chief justice will have to be 65 or younger in order to steer the judiciary through the uncertainties of Brexit, ruling out several leading candidates including Lord Leveson.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
When? 2040?
He might well be right. Still, I had a good run with them from 186.9 to 246 - I was expecting a loss but not £7 billion. :>
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
When? 2040?
He might well be right. Still, I had a good run with them from 186.9 to 246 - I was expecting a loss but not £7 billion. :>
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
When? 2040?
Probably a couple of years of now. Yes, lots(!) of value destruction but the core business is sound. That ABN Amro deal though..... Hubris unlimited.
Just fully privatise RBS now, the management would have a freer hand in making the radical restuchering, redundancy's and so on that are needed and it will be profitable within a year or 2.
The best way to do it would be to transfer some shares to each of the government employee pension funds, that have big deficits guaranteed by tax payers, that way the government loos is its dead hand of control over the bank, but taxpayers benefit in any subsequent raise in share price.
Dunno, I bailed like a bandit at about 10 am this morning though.
Still ploughing through the historical issues from 2007-8. The underlying business is making 4Bn a year profit, eventually the legacy stuff will finish dragging them down.
When? 2040?
He might well be right. Still, I had a good run with them from 186.9 to 246 - I was expecting a loss but not £7 billion. :>
It is genuinely incredible that Newsnight and C4 thought him appropriate (by education and temperament) as their economics editor. I see from looking at Wikipedia that he's won awards for business reporting - either standards are incredibly low or he's had one hell of a mid-life crisis.
Bit of both...How a music teacher rose to be an economics editor of major factorals programmes has always been a mystery to me.
In comparison, You can question Flanders impartially when was on the bbc, but not her qualifications for the role.
Indeed. Also a shame that Linda Yueh isn't more of a telly natural... if she was the main face of economics reporting in the UK, at least we'd know where to tune in to see someone who knows whereof she speaks.
Economics, medical and science reporting really ought to be specialist roles with subject knowledge qualifications.
Comments
synonyms: unbelievable, beyond belief, hard to believe, scarcely credible, unconvincing, far-fetched, strained, laboured, implausible, improbable, highly unlikely, not in the least likely, questionable, dubious, doubtful, inconceivable, unthinkable, unimaginable, impossible, astonishing, astounding, breathtaking, staggering, absurd, preposterous, phenomenal, extraordinary
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/835179043251240960
As we see Mr Farage is already making a name for himself in the US, after the MEPs go the only source of public funding with be the Short Money - but that's conditional on Carswell not re-crossing the floor back to Theresa's blue team.
Assuming Brexit goes according to plan, will there be any need for UKIP by 2020? I'm not sure there will be.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/835107834882834432
There is a bigger gap to Labour too but I reckon the Tory vote share will rise...
500 of the TUSC vote to various odds and sods (loony, Ind, Green etc)
First up double the raw Lib Dem vote from the GE : 1150 * 2 = 2,300
Give UKIP roughly half of their GE vote 4,500
Set turnout to 40%. It'll be less high profile than Stoke was but the GE vote share is slightly better. Better weather too. Though it is safe Labour so people might not bother. 40% feels right as an estimate anyhow.
That gives 30,400 electorate.
23,100 to distribute between Labour and Tory.
I'll assume a 3% swing from Lab to Tory - as I think it'll be somewhere between Stoke and Copeland... Andy Burnham think what you like of him was reasonably high profile too back in 2015.
76% of the electorate goes for the big two. The gap was 31.9% in 2015, a 6% swing means that is 25.9% - which yields Labour 51.4% (They are losing remainers to the Lib Dems as per Curtice) Tories 25.5%.
Labour 15625 51.4%
Tory 7752 25.5%
UKIP 4500 14.8%
LD 2300 7.6%
Other 500 1.6%
Is my initial guess for Leigh.
Those MPs who are still interested in trying to claw their way, somehow, someday, back into power are going to have to break away. It's either that, an entire career in helpless opposition, deselection by loony activists, or being swept away by the electorate. A split is difficult and painful for a host of reasons, but are there any better options left?
There would be a niche for UKIP in working-class Labour seats, but then again FPTP and the fact that UKIP is a tent full of piss mean they'll probably fizzle out.
That said, if that situation changes and they do go into real decline, does anyone have a real handle on where the voters might end up going? Would be an awful lot of votes up for grabs!
I'd definitely have watched if it were Ashcroft - his work in amassing the VC collection is both astonishing and moving.
And remember, both parties' electoral agonies don't end here. Next stop is May, when the Lib Dems are probably going to leave Ukip for dust in terms of gains in the English councils. And north of the border, Sturgeon and Davidson are getting ready to turn off Scottish Labour's life support machine.
So I wonder if some are not approaching the question from the wrong end, as you hint. Why are so many people still voting for UKIP or saying that they will at the next GE? Some on here will no doubt say that such voters are just thick, racists etc. etc. but I don't think that argument holds. It seems to me that there is a kernel of the electorate whose concerns are not being addressed by the two major parties.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39074850
If only Guardian readers could see some of his posts on here :-)
But in this case, presumably the loss just goes to the tax payer?
It focuses on a different part of the country but notice the last sentence. I think we saw this prediction come true in Copeland:
' Derbyshire NE, Rother Valley, Don Valley, Bassetlaw and Penistone/Stocksbridge have near identical social makeups and elecion results.
They have a number of characteristics that could bode well for the Conservatives in future:
Extremely white, very few students, no extremes in wealth, socially conservative, distrust of London and Europe, good motorway communications leading to new commuter developments, formerly dominated by old-labour industry (coal) but no longer, discredited local Labour party.
With the right sort of leader (David Davis would be better in these areas than David Cameron) and Rosindell style local candidates the Conservatives would have great potential.
This may sound far-fetched but how many people would have predicted only 10 years ago that the Republicans could win West Virginina (by 15% no less) whilst losing New Hampshire.
This could also apply to the four Labour constituencies in Cumbria. '
In comparison, You can question Flanders impartially when was on the bbc, but not her qualifications for the role.
This area of the UK has been neglected and left behind,it is disconnected from the main infrastructure, and does not benefit from Lake District tourism, even second home owners stay away. Places such as Egremont, and Cleator moor look very unloved, the constituency needs a champion, let us hope Trudy is the one.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/24/new-lord-chief-justice-must-be-65-or-younger-to-navigate-brexit-leveson?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Unlucky old bean.
I'm wondering whether Femen have ever actually caused political harm to someone they've demonstrated against? Can you hire them?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/labour-obliterated-fat-majority-tories-results-had-general-election/
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/835124628641181697
penelopegate 1100000
fillongate 87900
lepengate 5470
macrongate 5180
The Guardian and the Telegraph are now saying that both Fillon and Le Pen have been accused of irregularities, seemingly having "forgotten" Macrongate. Not that many French voters care what they say.
Russian strategy will probably be to take out Macron after they've dispensed with Fillon. Do it one at a time, as in the US Republican primaries. But there is resistance in the French state elite and perhaps Le Pen will even be arrested. Stakes will be raised. I think this particular terrain is OK for her because even if the French police arrest her in this connection it's the EU she's alleged to have diddled.
Waiting for Le Pen to drift before increasing my investment.
PFI is nearly over, Williams and Glyn has a positive resolution , just the mega US justice dept. fine really to come. Bulk of today's loss was against that upcoming fine.
The best way to do it would be to transfer some shares to each of the government employee pension funds, that have big deficits guaranteed by tax payers, that way the government loos is its dead hand of control over the bank, but taxpayers benefit in any subsequent raise in share price.
1833.05 Sell 28/02/17
After all costs.
Economics, medical and science reporting really ought to be specialist roles with subject knowledge qualifications.