Even on current polling Copeland is neck and neck between the Tories and Labour, the Tories are not ahead. Copeland is also different from Richmond Park in that it is the Tories who are the insurgents challenging in a strong Leave area while in Richmond it was the LDs who were the insurgents in a strong Remain area
We shouldn't ignore something that was probably overlooked at the time in Richmond: just how big a handicap it was to Zac not to have access to the Tory data bank of pledges.
FWIW, I think Labour are too short in both seats. They should be clear favourites in Stoke and while Con should still be favourites in Copeland, I wouldn't be backing anywhere south of 4/5.
Didn't Zac have the backing of his association? Weren't they the people who did the canvassing originally? Did they forget where his supporters lived?
Even on current polling Copeland is neck and neck between the Tories and Labour, the Tories are not ahead. Copeland is also different from Richmond Park in that it is the Tories who are the insurgents challenging in a strong Leave area while in Richmond it was the LDs who were the insurgents in a strong Remain area
We shouldn't ignore something that was probably overlooked at the time in Richmond: just how big a handicap it was to Zac not to have access to the Tory data bank of pledges.
FWIW, I think Labour are too short in both seats. They should be clear favourites in Stoke and while Con should still be favourites in Copeland, I wouldn't be backing anywhere south of 4/5.
Doesn't that mean that, like me, you'd be gobbling up Labour a5 3.5 (= 3.375 net) with the BetfairEx. These appear ridiculously generous odds against an incumbent party.
I agree with you as regards Stoke - backing Labour at 1.91 looks like the value bet of the year so far.
Even on current polling Copeland is neck and neck between the Tories and Labour, the Tories are not ahead. Copeland is also different from Richmond Park in that it is the Tories who are the insurgents challenging in a strong Leave area while in Richmond it was the LDs who were the insurgents in a strong Remain area
We shouldn't ignore something that was probably overlooked at the time in Richmond: just how big a handicap it was to Zac not to have access to the Tory data bank of pledges.
FWIW, I think Labour are too short in both seats. They should be clear favourites in Stoke and while Con should still be favourites in Copeland, I wouldn't be backing anywhere south of 4/5.
Didn't Zac have the backing of his association? Weren't they the people who did the canvassing originally? Did they forget where his supporters lived?
Even on current polling Copeland is neck and neck between the Tories and Labour, the Tories are not ahead. Copeland is also different from Richmond Park in that it is the Tories who are the insurgents challenging in a strong Leave area while in Richmond it was the LDs who were the insurgents in a strong Remain area
We shouldn't ignore something that was probably overlooked at the time in Richmond: just how big a handicap it was to Zac not to have access to the Tory data bank of pledges.
FWIW, I think Labour are too short in both seats. They should be clear favourites in Stoke and while Con should still be favourites in Copeland, I wouldn't be backing anywhere south of 4/5.
Didn't Zac have the backing of his association? Weren't they the people who did the canvassing originally? Did they forget where his supporters lived?
I'm sure they knew in general terms where the areas of support were but in terms of access to the pledge lists (and contact details), they should have been blocked from accessing Con Party data. There are tens of thousands of voters in a constituency. I could only tell remember a tiny fraction of pledges - and those either because I know the personally as activists in one party or another, because they're poster sites or because the voter was memorably rude!
Richmond Tories must have had a number of councillors and activists who would each know their patch. As you say they shouldn't have had access to the computerised records but having the Tory Association and Councillors on his side must have offset that somewhat.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
I was in the Phillippines one Easter and saw the crucifixions. Pretty yukky and no, not a lot of confectionery around.
I'm taking no chances with Stoke. Although unlikely, both candidates and parties have significant weaknesses and repel in equal measure.
I could see a weird result there.
LibDem gain?
Unlikely but not impossible. Certainly not 60/1.
If I were Farron I'd be focusing on Stoke and playing the plague on both your houses card. Trouble is he will probably repel Leavers too much, and by design.
I think the Lib Dems have a chance, here is the reasoning.
Brinsworth & Catcliffe/Sunderland, both targeted by the Lib Dem ground game. Both quite leavey and not a million miles from Stoke in terms of social metrics I'm guessing.
LD Adam Carter 2000 [66.0%; +50.4%] Labour 519 [17.1%;-26.2%] UKIP 389 [12.8%; -16.4%] Conservative 91 [3.0%; -8.8%] Green 30 [1.0%; +1.0%] 32% turnout Majority 1481 Votes: 3030 (9470 eligible votes)
That Sunderland ward:
Bryan George Foster - UKIP: 343 Helmut Izaks - Green: 23 Stephen Francis O’Brien - Lib Dem: 824 (45% of the vote) Gary Edward Waller - Labour: 458 Gavin William Christopher Wilson - Con: 184
Total votes cast: 1,832 Turnout: 23.8% (7700 eligible votes)
So of 17170 eligible votes, the Lib Dems got 2824.
In Stoke there are 63000 eligible votes. 6000 could well be enough, given the splits. The Lib Dems might get 6000 votes - they are the only candidate fielding a non Brexit candidate
Stoke on Trent Central on a 65.7% turnout gets ~ 41,400 eligible votes. The seat voted 35% to remain which is 14,490 votes.
So the yellow peril need ~ 42% of the remain vote to come out 'just this once' and vote. It isn't likely, but Betfair's current 60-1 looks like good value to me.
Good rationale. A very low turnout with Labour and UKIP in the high 20s, Tories in the high teens or low twenties, but the LDs in the low 30s seems most likely to me.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
I was in the Phillippines one Easter and saw the crucifixions. Pretty yukky and no, not a lot of confectionery around.
I have never seen that to be fair, it only happens in a very few places these days, because the church frowns very heavily on it and brands it, with some justification, as fanaticism. What is especially odd is it is often the same people being nailed up year after year. The government told them if they wanted to do it they had to have up to date tetanus shots and only use sterilized stainless steel nails!
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
I was in the Phillippines one Easter and saw the crucifixions. Pretty yukky and no, not a lot of confectionery around.
I lived there for 4 years. They take their religion seriously. Easter is for them a religious thing. Whereas here it seems to be more about daffodils, chocolate, bunnies, eggs and B&Q.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe especially given he was re elected by over 60% of them just 5 months ago
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
I was in the Phillippines one Easter and saw the crucifixions. Pretty yukky and no, not a lot of confectionery around.
I have never seen that to be fair, it only happens in a very few places these days, because the church frowns very heavily on it and brands it, with some justification, as fanaticism.
Interesting - it was some years ago and we were on our way to Banaue, which was quite a drive from Manila but I've no idea where exactly we stopped to watch it.
Mr. Patrick, he said one was surprising, hence going for a surprise.
Mr. Borough, a little Danish prize does sound nice on Valentine's Day.
Mr. Bob, Jesus doesn't rise from the dead at your convenience. Humbug to your heathen secularism.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
The really big point is that far from being a tumultuous, cacophonic, unstable, firecracker of a polity, Brexit Britain is starting to feel like a relative island of calm, more at ease with itself than it has been for many years, led by a sort of 1950s Prime Minister, who is nearly 20 points ahead in the polls.
The spotlight of worry has swivelled round elsewhere, to Greece, France and to the United States. If Brexit is a revolution, it is so far turning out to be a very British and incremental one, lacking in violence or upset. More tea, vicar?
Good rationale. A very low turnout with Labour and UKIP in the high 20s, Tories in the high teens or low twenties, but the LDs in the low 30s seems most likely to me.
I'm sceptical. I spent a whole day meeting voters there, as I reported the other day. I met nobody who appeared to be giving the LibDems any consideration whatever, or who mentioned having heard from them. It was seen entirely as a Lab-UKIP thing. I understand that the LibDems have a candidate who is targeting the Kashmiri community in one ward, which is essentially a spoiler strategy that will hurt Labour, but not a winning approach from Stoke as a whole, where it would be fair to say that concern over Kashmir or ethnic minority issues more generally is not obvious in the general electorate.
The mistake, I think, is to overestimate the significance of Brexit in by-election voting. Neither supporters nor remainers who I talked to were making it a major factor. UKIP's strength reflects general disenchantment rather than a passion to pursue the Brexit theme.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe especially given he was re elected by over 60% of them just 5 months ago
I can understand why you want this to be true and why you would have no idea about the depth of disenchantment there is now with Corbyn's leadership inside Labour.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
I was in the Phillippines one Easter and saw the crucifixions. Pretty yukky and no, not a lot of confectionery around.
I have never seen that to be fair, it only happens in a very few places these days, because the church frowns very heavily on it and brands it, with some justification, as fanaticism.
Interesting - it was some years ago and we were on our way to Banaue, which was quite a drive from Manila but I've no idea where exactly we stopped to watch it.
[As an aside, Easter is my favourite holiday. Utterly voluntary, if you buy eggs then you only need a few, they're cheap, and the day after the shops are full of cut-price chocolate. Huzzah!].
Easter is a little less voluntary here. If you live in a city its very odd as all of a sudden the roads are relatively clear as half the population decamp back to the provinces to observe Easter with their extended family. Churches, always busy, are completely rammed, and in the city will be saying 8-10 masses each day. The devout (ie, about half the people you meet) will be attending lots of those, plus assorted other events. Out here in the sticks people will be up at 3am on Good Friday to walk the stations of the cross around their village. Events will continue for all of Holy Week and then there will be a massed return to the cities. To accommodate all this the summer holiday usually starts a week before Easter, this year it will be April 8th, and the kids will go back to school early to mid June.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
I was in the Phillippines one Easter and saw the crucifixions. Pretty yukky and no, not a lot of confectionery around.
I have never seen that to be fair, it only happens in a very few places these days, because the church frowns very heavily on it and brands it, with some justification, as fanaticism.
Interesting - it was some years ago and we were on our way to Banaue, which was quite a drive from Manila but I've no idea where exactly we stopped to watch it.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe especially given he was re elected by over 60% of them just 5 months ago
I can understand why you want this to be true and why you would have no idea about the depth of disenchantment there is now with Corbyn's leadership inside Labour.
Just 5 months ago Corbyn won a landslide amongst Labour members against the Europhile Owen Smith despite Brexit and there has been no polling to show that position has changed so it is actually you who are acting more in hope than reality. Until polling shows the Labour membership want to move back to the centre again Corbynism is going nowhere
Good rationale. A very low turnout with Labour and UKIP in the high 20s, Tories in the high teens or low twenties, but the LDs in the low 30s seems most likely to me.
I'm sceptical. I spent a whole day meeting voters there, as I reported the other day. I met nobody who appeared to be giving the LibDems any consideration whatever, or who mentioned having heard from them. It was seen entirely as a Lab-UKIP thing. I understand that the LibDems have a candidate who is targeting the Kashmiri community in one ward, which is essentially a spoiler strategy that will hurt Labour, but not a winning approach from Stoke as a whole, where it would be fair to say that concern over Kashmir or ethnic minority issues more generally is not obvious in the general electorate.
The mistake, I think, is to overestimate the significance of Brexit in by-election voting. Neither supporters nor remainers who I talked to were making it a major factor. UKIP's strength reflects general disenchantment rather than a passion to pursue the Brexit theme.
That also seemed to be the general thrust of Newsnight's vox pops last night. General disenchantment that Stoke had been left to rot after de-industrialisation.
The most telling was the young woman with children who said both her working class parents had reasonable industrial jobs as she grew up and she had a decent enough upbringing with no endless worry and crisis about money. Her own children would not enjoy that security as she bought them up.
The really big point is that far from being a tumultuous, cacophonic, unstable, firecracker of a polity, Brexit Britain is starting to feel like a relative island of calm, more at ease with itself than it has been for many years, led by a sort of 1950s Prime Minister, who is nearly 20 points ahead in the polls.
The spotlight of worry has swivelled round elsewhere, to Greece, France and to the United States. If Brexit is a revolution, it is so far turning out to be a very British and incremental one, lacking in violence or upset. More tea, vicar?
I am always reminded that in 1848 - known to historians as the Year of Revolutions - whilst chaos reigned across Europe, the British Chartists had a large picnic on Kennington Common.
Nick Palmer. I am sceptical can you make an overall assessment. There are different responses in different areas. With respect perhaps you should stay for 10 days. Having said that I am happy to go with a Labout win at this stage. See where we are next Monday.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe especially given he was re elected by over 60% of them just 5 months ago
I can understand why you want this to be true and why you would have no idea about the depth of disenchantment there is now with Corbyn's leadership inside Labour.
Seems to me, on the outside, that the 3 line whip on A50 has been the death knell for Corbyn.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe especially given he was re elected by over 60% of them just 5 months ago
I can understand why you want this to be true and why you would have no idea about the depth of disenchantment there is now with Corbyn's leadership inside Labour.
Seems to me, on the outside, that the 3 line whip on A50 has been the death knell for Corbyn.
Yep - the scales have fallen from many eyes. Also, his continuing friendliness with the rape-cult SWP has aggravated many. A lot on the left are beginning to understand he could kill them off completely. They are desperate to find an alternative, but the landscape is shifting. Corbyn no longer gets to anoint his successor.
The Internet of Tat Things is going to lead to some really serious problems for society within a few years. Security's difficult enough without having so many essentially uncontrolled devices about.
They're already being used for DDoS attacks. It's a problem that's only going to get worse.
Good rationale. A very low turnout with Labour and UKIP in the high 20s, Tories in the high teens or low twenties, but the LDs in the low 30s seems most likely to me.
I'm sceptical. I spent a whole day meeting voters there, as I reported the other day. I met nobody who appeared to be giving the LibDems any consideration whatever, or who mentioned having heard from them. It was seen entirely as a Lab-UKIP thing. I understand that the LibDems have a candidate who is targeting the Kashmiri community in one ward, which is essentially a spoiler strategy that will hurt Labour, but not a winning approach from Stoke as a whole, where it would be fair to say that concern over Kashmir or ethnic minority issues more generally is not obvious in the general electorate.
The mistake, I think, is to overestimate the significance of Brexit in by-election voting. Neither supporters nor remainers who I talked to were making it a major factor. UKIP's strength reflects general disenchantment rather than a passion to pursue the Brexit theme.
I'm not saying it will happen. I'm mapping out the 5-10% scenario where it could conceivably happen.
Tories a bit mispriced for sure - but it's frankly astonishing that two years in and with a massive amoiunt of noise around Brexit etc that the opposition aren't streets ahead. Labour would seem to have no hope of forming a government any time soon.
No, they haven't. Not a sliver. The Corbynista had a fabulous dream. But it was only a dream.
The question, as was mentioned in a post over the weekend, I believe, is at what point if ever the Momentumista loses faith with Jezza and realises that it too wants to put its "overthrow the Tories" mantra into practice.
NPXMPX2 still some way off, according to his post.
This is no longer up to the Corbynista. Corbyn is highly unlikely to be LOTO by 2020. He has had enough personally as far as I can see. The process has begun.
What are the mechanics for that to happen?
He resigns or offers to resign in exchange for the 38 signatures required to get X (fill in lefty names as they are rolled out and kite tested) on to the ballot.
Or erstwhile union allies call for a contest, so killing off disloyalty card.
It's when, not if.
The only thing that matters is the membership, until polling comes out showing they no longer back Corbyn or Corbynism he and his allies are safe especially given he was re elected by over 60% of them just 5 months ago
I can understand why you want this to be true and why you would have no idea about the depth of disenchantment there is now with Corbyn's leadership inside Labour.
Seems to me, on the outside, that the 3 line whip on A50 has been the death knell for Corbyn.
Yep - the scales have fallen from many eyes. Also, his continuing friendliness with the rape-cult SWP has aggravated many. A lot on the left are beginning to understand he could kill them off completely. They are desperate to find an alternative, but the landscape is shifting. Corbyn no longer gets to anoint his successor.
You're at this stage now, but in a year's time it is "Labour's has performed better than expected in parliamentary by-elections and the May locals (Just price up the Copeland/Stoke double), and changing the leader now will look like panic". Inertia and the want to retain a united party front carry him through to 2019, and probably 2020.
At 1.98% we came pretty close - and of course our GDP has been bigger than many predicted.....
Anyone would think there was nothing else happening in the world if that sort of thing is considered news worthy... looks like a squirrel, smells like a squirrel...
The third was a surprise to me. How did that happen?
Bulgaria, although not a member of the ERM, pegs its currency to the Euro. This imposes severe fiscal discipline on the government, as they can no longer print their own money without threatening the peg.
If the Eurozone were agile they'd agree an accelerated transition programme rather than the usual ERM then wait for 2 years model for Euro membership.
Is the problem for the Labour moderates that their longer term hopes require the left to crash and burn spectacularly? If they oust Corbyn before they lose a GE the Labour left will squawk like a pink monkey bird. The necessary order of events ought to be: 1. Corbyn loses the GE big style 2. Corbyn gets replaced by a non-muppet non-marxist 3. Tories go stale or complacent or evil 4. Labour return Losing the GE whilst having a non-lunatic at the helm would actually be counter-productive. The sane need the insane to lose so badly they can't revive.
On most counts at this very early stage of her leadership, May scores highly. She has had more experience than most incoming prime ministers after six years in the Home Office, although this is not a department that is testing in terms of economic or foreign policy. She has, for now, command of her party. But in terms of context she is more constrained than any of her modern predecessors, inheriting Brexit, the energy-sapping issue that dominates her government and will determine her fate.
Re Stoke - if I was a constituent I would despair at the choices.
Labour - appalling candidate UKIP - yesterday's news and a chaotic party Lib Dems - extreme pro Europe party in a high leave area Conservatives - difficult to see a win in this staunch labour seat
I think I would vote conservative out of loyalty and definitely not tactically for UKIP
Re Copeland
Think the NHS may have a negative effect on the conservatives.
Also what effect will Toshiba's likely withdrawal from nuclear have
I hope the conservatives win but too close to call though if they have got out their postal votes they may just get over the line
I think the Democrats will - they should definitely be trying to get him impeached, even if Pence has views that are actually further from the Democrats in many ways. Trump will be a trickier opponent to beat than Pence in 2020. Pence is a generic republican - they know how to beat those guys, Trump is sui generis and has so far run rings around all his opponents.
Re Stoke - if I was a constituent I would despair at the choices.
Labour - appalling candidate UKIP - yesterday's news and a chaotic party Lib Dems - extreme pro Europe party in a high leave area Conservatives - difficult to see a win in this staunch labour seat
Maybe Labour are trying to rub it in: "Look how shite our candidate was, unphotogenic, potty mouthed, incontinent on Twitter, approves of slapping women - and we still won"
The third was a surprise to me. How did that happen?
Bulgaria, although not a member of the ERM, pegs its currency to the Euro. This imposes severe fiscal discipline on the government, as they can no longer print their own money without threatening the peg.
If the Eurozone were agile they'd agree an accelerated transition programme rather than the usual ERM then wait for 2 years model for Euro membership.
Wake me up when it happens...
That is why Mrs T and her fellow Conservatives wanted to join. Admittedly the sainted Margaret later changed her mind (when Alan Walters got her to abandon housewife economics) since when our joining has been seen as a lefty plot, despite it having been Jim Callaghan and Gordon Brown who kept us out.
I think the Democrats will - they should definitely be trying to get him impeached, even if Pence has views that are actually further from the Democrats in many ways. Trump will be a trickier opponent to beat than Pence in 2020. Pence is a generic republican - they know how to beat those guys, Trump is sui generis and has so far run rings around all his opponents.
The Republican's know this and wont vote to impeach him while there is any other option so long as he continues to toss chunks of red meat in their direction from time to time. The SCOTUS nomination bought him a long line of credit with many Republicans.
The really big point is that far from being a tumultuous, cacophonic, unstable, firecracker of a polity, Brexit Britain is starting to feel like a relative island of calm, more at ease with itself than it has been for many years, led by a sort of 1950s Prime Minister, who is nearly 20 points ahead in the polls.
The spotlight of worry has swivelled round elsewhere, to Greece, France and to the United States. If Brexit is a revolution, it is so far turning out to be a very British and incremental one, lacking in violence or upset. More tea, vicar?
Well that was the point. It WAS a British revolution. We trudged to the polls on a Summers day and decided to change the course of the nation for the next century. And in so doing we changed the government too.
Afterwards the establishment and MSM had a collective meltdown (Faisal is still in a state of extreme heightened emotion) but the people just shrugged and went back to watching Coronation Street.
Now we're on our way out of the EU with the reassuring presence of this generations Super Mac (Mrs May) at the helm and things are stable with the economy going far better than even the most excitable of Brexiteers could have expected.
I'd have thought the Tories will be quite happy if Labour can cling on in both seats?
#OperationSaveJezza
It would be a shame if the Conservatives wasted Corbyn on by-elections and never faced him in a General Election. I am reminded of Kerry Packer's comment on Alan Bond after he made $750m off him selling then buying back a TV station in three years:"You only get one Alan Bond in your life and I've had mine."
May must know she'll only get one Corbyn in her Prime Ministerial career and she has maximise the benefit from his utter, utter incompetence.
Good rationale. A very low turnout with Labour and UKIP in the high 20s, Tories in the high teens or low twenties, but the LDs in the low 30s seems most likely to me.
I'm sceptical. I spent a whole day meeting voters there, as I reported the other day. I met nobody who appeared to be giving the LibDems any consideration whatever, or who mentioned having heard from them. It was seen entirely as a Lab-UKIP thing. I understand that the LibDems have a candidate who is targeting the Kashmiri community in one ward, which is essentially a spoiler strategy that will hurt Labour, but not a winning approach from Stoke as a whole, where it would be fair to say that concern over Kashmir or ethnic minority issues more generally is not obvious in the general electorate.
The mistake, I think, is to overestimate the significance of Brexit in by-election voting. Neither supporters nor remainers who I talked to were making it a major factor. UKIP's strength reflects general disenchantment rather than a passion to pursue the Brexit theme.
But then a Labour ex MP would want to talk up the most easily beatable candidate. I've no idea who will win, but if one party can become seen as the main opponent to Labour they may be in trouble, if the split is fairly even between UKIP, LDs and Tories they'll be fine.
No surprise that May is more popular than her party, or Corbyn is less popular than his (except Scotland).
What does surprise me is that outside London the Labour brand is being damaged and is much less popular than Conservatives in the Midlands and even marginally in the North....
It's amazing - and telling - just how terrified the PB Tories are of Labour changing its leader. Proves the old theory that Mother Theresa's support is a mile wide, and an inch deep.
"Appalling as both are, these two characters exemplify in their own very different ways why the modern Left has collapsed as an electoral force.
Which is why it is so revealing that Baroness Chakrabarti has chosen to leap to the defence of Mr Shiner. Speaking on Sunday she told us how upset she is at Mr Shiner’s downfall.
He had, she said, done “very good work” before “losing his way”.
How telling this is about her world view. She believes not only that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party must be protected from the accusation that it harbours anti-Semites but also that Phil Shiner must be protected from the idea that he is a nasty piece of work who deserves everything that has come to him.
Is the problem for the Labour moderates that their longer term hopes require the left to crash and burn spectacularly? If they oust Corbyn before they lose a GE the Labour left will squawk like a pink monkey bird. The necessary order of events ought to be: 1. Corbyn loses the GE big style 2. Corbyn gets replaced by a non-muppet non-marxist 3. Tories go stale or complacent or evil 4. Labour return Losing the GE whilst having a non-lunatic at the helm would actually be counter-productive. The sane need the insane to lose so badly they can't revive.
Good rationale. A very low turnout with Labour and UKIP in the high 20s, Tories in the high teens or low twenties, but the LDs in the low 30s seems most likely to me.
I'm sceptical. I spent a whole day meeting voters there, as I reported the other day. I met nobody who appeared to be giving the LibDems any consideration whatever, or who mentioned having heard from them. It was seen entirely as a Lab-UKIP thing. I understand that the LibDems have a candidate who is targeting the Kashmiri community in one ward, which is essentially a spoiler strategy that will hurt Labour, but not a winning approach from Stoke as a whole, where it would be fair to say that concern over Kashmir or ethnic minority issues more generally is not obvious in the general electorate.
The mistake, I think, is to overestimate the significance of Brexit in by-election voting. Neither supporters nor remainers who I talked to were making it a major factor. UKIP's strength reflects general disenchantment rather than a passion to pursue the Brexit theme.
But then a Labour ex MP would want to talk up the most easily beatable candidate. I've no idea who will win, but if one party can become seen as the main opponent to Labour they may be in trouble, if the split is fairly even between UKIP, LDs and Tories they'll be fine.
You are right. Only newbies or the terminally daft on here pay any regard to NPxMP's canvassing "reports".
At 1.98% we came pretty close - and of course our GDP has been bigger than many predicted.....
bloody fake news....it is also why hard gdp related targets are nonsense. I can see some sir Humphrey now going to buy a load of pot plants for the office just to make up the 0.02%
"Appalling as both are, these two characters exemplify in their own very different ways why the modern Left has collapsed as an electoral force.
Which is why it is so revealing that Baroness Chakrabarti has chosen to leap to the defence of Mr Shiner. Speaking on Sunday she told us how upset she is at Mr Shiner’s downfall.
He had, she said, done “very good work” before “losing his way”.
How telling this is about her world view. She believes not only that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party must be protected from the accusation that it harbours anti-Semites but also that Phil Shiner must be protected from the idea that he is a nasty piece of work who deserves everything that has come to him.
It's.A.Labour.Thing
"He was supporting Zionism before he went mad and ended up killing six million Jews"
The really big point is that far from being a tumultuous, cacophonic, unstable, firecracker of a polity, Brexit Britain is starting to feel like a relative island of calm, more at ease with itself than it has been for many years, led by a sort of 1950s Prime Minister, who is nearly 20 points ahead in the polls.
The spotlight of worry has swivelled round elsewhere, to Greece, France and to the United States. If Brexit is a revolution, it is so far turning out to be a very British and incremental one, lacking in violence or upset. More tea, vicar?
Well that was the point. It WAS a British revolution. We trudged to the polls on a Summers day and decided to change the course of the nation for the next century. And in so doing we changed the government too.
Afterwards the establishment and MSM had a collective meltdown (Faisal is still in a state of extreme heightened emotion) but the people just shrugged and went back to watching Coronation Street.
Now we're on our way out of the EU with the reassuring presence of this generations Super Mac (Mrs May) at the helm and things are stable with the economy going far better than even the most excitable of Brexiteers could have expected.
"Appalling as both are, these two characters exemplify in their own very different ways why the modern Left has collapsed as an electoral force.
Which is why it is so revealing that Baroness Chakrabarti has chosen to leap to the defence of Mr Shiner. Speaking on Sunday she told us how upset she is at Mr Shiner’s downfall.
He had, she said, done “very good work” before “losing his way”.
How telling this is about her world view. She believes not only that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party must be protected from the accusation that it harbours anti-Semites but also that Phil Shiner must be protected from the idea that he is a nasty piece of work who deserves everything that has come to him.
On the button even if he thinks the Law Society is part of a left-wing, anti-Establishment conspiracy?
It's amazing - and telling - just how terrified the PB Tories are of Labour changing its leader. Proves the old theory that Mother Theresa's support is a mile wide, and an inch deep.
I never believed that she deserved that Nobel Peace Prize. Calcutta wasn't as bad as she made out.
No surprise that May is more popular than her party, or Corbyn is less popular than his (except Scotland).
What does surprise me is that outside London the Labour brand is being damaged and is much less popular than Conservatives in the Midlands and even marginally in the North....
The Midlands will be horrible for Labour at the next GE. Miliband and Corbyn could have been designed to do the maximum damage to the party in this part of the world.
The really big point is that far from being a tumultuous, cacophonic, unstable, firecracker of a polity, Brexit Britain is starting to feel like a relative island of calm, more at ease with itself than it has been for many years, led by a sort of 1950s Prime Minister, who is nearly 20 points ahead in the polls.
The spotlight of worry has swivelled round elsewhere, to Greece, France and to the United States. If Brexit is a revolution, it is so far turning out to be a very British and incremental one, lacking in violence or upset. More tea, vicar?
Well that was the point. It WAS a British revolution. We trudged to the polls on a Summers day and decided to change the course of the nation for the next century. And in so doing we changed the government too.
Afterwards the establishment and MSM had a collective meltdown (Faisal is still in a state of extreme heightened emotion) but the people just shrugged and went back to watching Coronation Street.
Now we're on our way out of the EU with the reassuring presence of this generations Super Mac (Mrs May) at the helm and things are stable with the economy going far better than even the most excitable of Brexiteers could have expected.
All typically British.
You missed out the warm beer.
Not to mention spinsters cycling from evensong to the polling stations to TAKE BACK CONTROL.
"I can forgive many of the sins of the Trump-is-Hitler, Brexit-is-Beelzebub lobby. I mean, we all lose the plot occasionally. We’re all susceptible to freaking out.
One day you’re a paragon of measured political chatter and the next you’re on Twitter at 3am screaming ‘FASCIST!’ at eggs and plotting to make Hampstead a republic so you don’t have to share citizenship with former miners and women called Chardonnay who don’t like the EU.
Meltdowns happen. I get it. Let’s not be too hard on these people who’ve left the land of reason for the world of WTF, where Godwin’s Law is permanently suspended...
But there’s one thing for which I’ll never forgive them: making me defend Piers Morgan. Anything but this. Alas, needs must... Yes, this is how thoroughly the plot has been lost by the EU-backing, Hillary-pining part of the chattering class: they’ve managed to make Piers Morgan look like the voice of reason. Heaven help us. Or them.
I think that guy is a binary options system scammer.
Well the Sunday Times was careful to say he was not "implicated in any wrongdoing" but even the title of their piece "He wins, you lose in binary casino" ought to give the game away really.
Just thought it was very very shoddy from the Mail. They'd already sussed that there was more to his "trading" than met the eye, and even he admitted much of his income came from "coaching" new marks. Quick scan of the media database (or google news - the exposé was only two months ago!) would have found the Sunday Times piece. A scroll down his Twitter feed would show he was a perennial show-off in between occasional plugs to join his "trading team". Five minutes on google would show how he works, if your common sense wasn't enough to deduce there must be a referral/affiliate scheme somewhere along the line - a young chap claiming 60k profit/month on the back of a student loan shouldn't sound credible. And sadly the Sunday Times piece shows just how dodgy some of what was being pushed was.
Also some mention must go to Channel 4 for sticking him on their Rich Kids Go Shopping "documentary", letting him flaunt his lifestyle, push his social media profile, and sell his "follow me if you want to get rich like me" story. With no critical examination of his claims, just showing him "make a thousand pounds in fifteen minutes". Goodness knows how many thousands of pounds he made from the exposure. But then, we all know that C4 "reality documentaries" are not really "journalism".
The Mail has given the guy free publicity before. Even for the same thing before - oh no, I've had a supercar crash! Fortunately I have LOTS OF MONEY from my trading system so it doesn't really matter! And I am big on social media so follow me on Twitter/Insta if you wanna get rich too! I even do coaching for the newbs!!
That they were so desperate to uncritically run the provided pictures of smashed up supercars, plus some cringey "rich kids of Insta" stuff, without joining any of the dots together that were right there in front of them, was poor stuff.
(The comments section BTL is also disappointing, occasionally more switched-on readers do point out "erm, can't you guys see what is going on here?" or even warn other readers "if you're tempted to follow this guy, google first, DO NOT GET INVOLVED WITH HIM" ... but no, it's the bland "well done you but don't flaunt your wealth if you don't want to get in trouble" or "wish I knew his secret" type of stuff.)
Labour effectively at 5/1 for Copeland (unless you think that they'll finish outside the top two, which really would be an earthquake)? I don't mind if I do:
The third was a surprise to me. How did that happen?
Bulgaria, although not a member of the ERM, pegs its currency to the Euro. This imposes severe fiscal discipline on the government, as they can no longer print their own money without threatening the peg.
If the Eurozone were agile they'd agree an accelerated transition programme rather than the usual ERM then wait for 2 years model for Euro membership.
Wake me up when it happens...
Estonia is interesting in there with a flat rate tax system.
"I can forgive many of the sins of the Trump-is-Hitler, Brexit-is-Beelzebub lobby. I mean, we all lose the plot occasionally. We’re all susceptible to freaking out.
One day you’re a paragon of measured political chatter and the next you’re on Twitter at 3am screaming ‘FASCIST!’ at eggs and plotting to make Hampstead a republic so you don’t have to share citizenship with former miners and women called Chardonnay who don’t like the EU.
Meltdowns happen. I get it. Let’s not be too hard on these people who’ve left the land of reason for the world of WTF, where Godwin’s Law is permanently suspended...
On bill Maher on Friday he tried to take the criminal position that trump is wrong but might not be the new Hitler and to say so doesn't help the argument against trump. to which he was shouted down and told repeatedly to f##k off and that Hitler worked up to killing the Jews, he didn't kill them on day one.
This us oly the third time I have ever posted here over a period years of lurking. However reading NikP's post on Stoke has motivated me. It is pure fantasy. The libdems are aiming for the scenario that casino royale has eluded to. I believe it is about a 30% chance that their extremely heavy campaign and GOTV will give them the low 30% of the vote they need. I have them at 40 to 1which must be value.
Labour effectively at 5/1 for Copeland (unless you think that they'll finish outside the top two, which really would be an earthquake)? I don't mind if I do:
Labour effectively at 5/1 for Copeland (unless you think that they'll finish outside the top two, which really would be an earthquake)? I don't mind if I do:
I'm not a Lib Dem booster in either of these constituencies. They lost their deposits in both of these seats and while I'm sure they'll do better this time, if a yellow wave hits, it will hit me on the back of the head.
It's amazing - and telling - just how terrified the PB Tories are of Labour changing its leader. Proves the old theory that Mother Theresa's support is a mile wide, and an inch deep.
Well not really. Even if Labour does change leaders the damage done to the Labour brand is so great that it's hard to see how they win the next election.
But a new leader could keep the situation roughly where it was in 2015 where-as a Jezza leadership would give the Tories a landslide in all probability.
The UK dipped slightly below this at 1.98 per cent, as its economy grew faster in 2016 than its defence spending.
"Nonetheless, the UK remained the only European state in the world's top five defence spenders in 2016.
"If all Nato European countries were in 2016 to have met this 2 per cent of GDP target, their defence spending would have needed to rise by over 40 per cent."
Labour effectively at 5/1 for Copeland (unless you think that they'll finish outside the top two, which really would be an earthquake)? I don't mind if I do:
I'm not a Lib Dem booster in either of these constituencies. They lost their deposits in both of these seats and while I'm sure they'll do better this time, if a yellow wave hits, it will hit me on the back of the head.
If you think they could be a 10% chance of nicking 2nd its probably worth a bet.
This us oly the third time I have ever posted here over a period years of lurking. However reading NikP's post on Stoke has motivated me. It is pure fantasy. The libdems are aiming for the scenario that casino royale has eluded to. I believe it is about a 30% chance that their extremely heavy campaign and GOTV will give them the low 30% of the vote they need. I have them at 40 to 1which must be value.
Who knows, but you are effectively saying the market (a weak one admittedly) is 28% wrong. So many people on here are saying the Lib Dems are going to almost win this, yet they are still 50/1, how has this price remained?
Labour effectively at 5/1 for Copeland (unless you think that they'll finish outside the top two, which really would be an earthquake)? I don't mind if I do:
I'm not a Lib Dem booster in either of these constituencies. They lost their deposits in both of these seats and while I'm sure they'll do better this time, if a yellow wave hits, it will hit me on the back of the head.
If you think they could be a 10% chance of nicking 2nd its probably worth a bet.
I see the logic, but (famous last words) I don't see their chance of nicking second as a 10% chance in Copeland.
Re Stoke - if I was a constituent I would despair at the choices.
Labour - appalling candidate UKIP - yesterday's news and a chaotic party Lib Dems - extreme pro Europe party in a high leave area Conservatives - difficult to see a win in this staunch labour seat
I think I would vote conservative out of loyalty and definitely not tactically for UKIP
Re Copeland
Think the NHS may have a negative effect on the conservatives.
Also what effect will Toshiba's likely withdrawal from nuclear have
I hope the conservatives win but too close to call though if they have got out their postal votes they may just get over the line
Monster Raving Loony Party to come through on the rails?
It's amazing - and telling - just how terrified the PB Tories are of Labour changing its leader. Proves the old theory that Mother Theresa's support is a mile wide, and an inch deep.
I never believed that she deserved that Nobel Peace Prize. Calcutta wasn't as bad as she made out.
Christopher Hitchens wasn't a big fan, his book on her was a trifle controversial
This us oly the third time I have ever posted here over a period years of lurking. However reading NikP's post on Stoke has motivated me. It is pure fantasy. The libdems are aiming for the scenario that casino royale has eluded to. I believe it is about a 30% chance that their extremely heavy campaign and GOTV will give them the low 30% of the vote they need. I have them at 40 to 1which must be value.
Well if you make them a somewhere between 3 and 7/2 chance you really should be filling your boots at 50 on betfair.
Labour effectively at 5/1 for Copeland (unless you think that they'll finish outside the top two, which really would be an earthquake)? I don't mind if I do:
I'm not a Lib Dem booster in either of these constituencies. They lost their deposits in both of these seats and while I'm sure they'll do better this time, if a yellow wave hits, it will hit me on the back of the head.
If you think they could be a 10% chance of nicking 2nd its probably worth a bet.
I see the logic, but (famous last words) I don't see their chance of nicking second as a 10% chance in Copeland.
Fair enough, no bet!
In case anyone was wondering how to work out the prices on Spread betting 25/10 Indices, you take the first place % (betting to 100%) and multiply by .25, then do the same for 2nd place and multiply by 10
So in Stoke, Labour are 50% chance to win on Betfair, that gives you 12.5points, and Sporting Index must think they have roughly 37.5% chance of coming second, which gives you 3.75 leading to their midpoint being 16.25 (15.5-17)
The Richmond Park odds weren't necessarily wrong. They gave Zac about a two-thirds charnce of winning. If the odds were exactly right, then one in three times a bet on him should have lost, which is quite often. This was one of those one in three times.
Of course, in political betting we don't get to rerun the same contest under exactly the same conditions again and again, so we can never say that any particular set of odds was right or wrong. Nonetheless, we shouldn't be at all surprised that an outcome to which the betting markets assign a one in three probability occurs. On the contrary, we should be surprised if such a thing rarely occurred.
This means that Richmond doesn't tell us anything about the Copeland probability. We can only use our judgement, on limited information, as to whether the Tories have a higher or lower probability of winning than the 69% implied by the odds.
It's amazing - and telling - just how terrified the PB Tories are of Labour changing its leader. Proves the old theory that Mother Theresa's support is a mile wide, and an inch deep.
It's not amazing at all that the supporters of one political party don't want the opposing political party, currently led by a donkey, to upskill.
"Appalling as both are, these two characters exemplify in their own very different ways why the modern Left has collapsed as an electoral force.
Which is why it is so revealing that Baroness Chakrabarti has chosen to leap to the defence of Mr Shiner. Speaking on Sunday she told us how upset she is at Mr Shiner’s downfall.
He had, she said, done “very good work” before “losing his way”.
How telling this is about her world view. She believes not only that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party must be protected from the accusation that it harbours anti-Semites but also that Phil Shiner must be protected from the idea that he is a nasty piece of work who deserves everything that has come to him.
It's.A.Labour.Thing
"He was supporting Zionism before he went mad and ended up killing six million Jews"
Did you see Dominic Lawson in STimes? Well worth registration to two free articles for it - it covers a lot of ground
The third was a surprise to me. How did that happen?
Bulgaria, although not a member of the ERM, pegs its currency to the Euro. This imposes severe fiscal discipline on the government, as they can no longer print their own money without threatening the peg.
If the Eurozone were agile they'd agree an accelerated transition programme rather than the usual ERM then wait for 2 years model for Euro membership.
Wake me up when it happens...
Estonia is interesting in there with a flat rate tax system.
I am a big supporter of flat tax. Sadly, politically it is a non-starter (like legalising drugs).
Comments
I agree with you as regards Stoke - backing Labour at 1.91 looks like the value bet of the year so far.
DYOR in both instances.
Not a chocolate egg in sight
It's when, not if.
The spotlight of worry has swivelled round elsewhere, to Greece, France and to the United States. If Brexit is a revolution, it is so far turning out to be a very British and incremental one, lacking in violence or upset. More tea, vicar?
https://capx.co/theresa-mays-britain-is-starting-to-look-like-a-safe-haven/
The mistake, I think, is to overestimate the significance of Brexit in by-election voting. Neither supporters nor remainers who I talked to were making it a major factor. UKIP's strength reflects general disenchantment rather than a passion to pursue the Brexit theme.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Pedro_Cutud_Lenten_Rites
https://twitter.com/wefail/status/831426332236079104
The most telling was the young woman with children who said both her working class parents had reasonable industrial jobs as she grew up and she had a decent enough upbringing with no endless worry and crisis about money. Her own children would not enjoy that security as she bought them up.
University couldn't figure out why network was slow... turns out it was being attacked by its own vending machines https://t.co/9UeqLq8dfH https://t.co/ZJijQ4SgKs
Edited extra bit: originally planned to release the sequel around December this year, but if at all possible I'll bring it forward.
Estonia - 10%
Lux - 22%
Bulgaria - 26%
The third was a surprise to me. How did that happen?
They're already being used for DDoS attacks. It's a problem that's only going to get worse.
https://twitter.com/AliBunkallSKY/status/831432052587241473
68% Remain 15° Left 17° International
If the Eurozone were agile they'd agree an accelerated transition programme rather than the usual ERM then wait for 2 years model for Euro membership.
Wake me up when it happens...
1. Corbyn loses the GE big style
2. Corbyn gets replaced by a non-muppet non-marxist
3. Tories go stale or complacent or evil
4. Labour return
Losing the GE whilst having a non-lunatic at the helm would actually be counter-productive. The sane need the insane to lose so badly they can't revive.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/14/theresa-may-up-to-the-job-prime-minister-how-to-tell
On most counts at this very early stage of her leadership, May scores highly. She has had more experience than most incoming prime ministers after six years in the Home Office, although this is not a department that is testing in terms of economic or foreign policy. She has, for now, command of her party. But in terms of context she is more constrained than any of her modern predecessors, inheriting Brexit, the energy-sapping issue that dominates her government and will determine her fate.
Labour - appalling candidate
UKIP - yesterday's news and a chaotic party
Lib Dems - extreme pro Europe party in a high leave area
Conservatives - difficult to see a win in this staunch labour seat
I think I would vote conservative out of loyalty and definitely not tactically for UKIP
Re Copeland
Think the NHS may have a negative effect on the conservatives.
Also what effect will Toshiba's likely withdrawal from nuclear have
I hope the conservatives win but too close to call though if they have got out their postal votes they may just get over the line
http://www.edwest.co.uk/uncategorized/why-ken-loach-is-a-stupid-head-and-poverty-is-a-myth/
#OperationSaveJezza
https://twitter.com/suzanneevans1/status/831439000137302018
One clarification - I did not welcome the Carswell EDM, I noted it.
we're ignoring you :-)
Afterwards the establishment and MSM had a collective meltdown (Faisal is still in a state of extreme heightened emotion) but the people just shrugged and went back to watching Coronation Street.
Now we're on our way out of the EU with the reassuring presence of this generations Super Mac (Mrs May) at the helm and things are stable with the economy going far better than even the most excitable of Brexiteers could have expected.
All typically British.
May must know she'll only get one Corbyn in her Prime Ministerial career and she has maximise the benefit from his utter, utter incompetence.
*If - lol.
Net - May / Corbyn:
London: -3 / -37
RoS: +22 / -44
Mid/Wal: +7 / -40
North: - / -35
Scot: -28 / -36
Conservatives / Labour
London: -25 / -25
RoS: +6 / -37
Mid/Wal: -10 / -33
North: -17 / -19
Scot: -43 / -40
No surprise that May is more popular than her party, or Corbyn is less popular than his (except Scotland).
What does surprise me is that outside London the Labour brand is being damaged and is much less popular than Conservatives in the Midlands and even marginally in the North....
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/767024/labour-party-shami-chakrabarti-phil-shiner
"Appalling as both are, these two characters exemplify in their own very different ways why the modern Left has collapsed as an electoral force.
Which is why it is so revealing that Baroness Chakrabarti has chosen to leap to the defence of Mr Shiner. Speaking on Sunday she told us how upset she is at Mr Shiner’s downfall.
He had, she said, done “very good work” before “losing his way”.
How telling this is about her world view. She believes not only that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party must be protected from the accusation that it harbours anti-Semites but also that Phil Shiner must be protected from the idea that he is a nasty piece of work who deserves everything that has come to him.
He's always got an agenda.
"He was supporting Zionism before he went mad and ended up killing six million Jews"
Calcutta wasn't as bad as she made out.
Labour 1.3/2.00
UKIP 5.5/2.08
LD 51/60
Con 8.0/60
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/581540/nicola-sturgeon-is-celebrities-valentines-day-sweetheart-as-she-wins-army-of-showbiz-fans/
According to bearded clown Frankie Boyle the British can't handle a female leader.
"I can forgive many of the sins of the Trump-is-Hitler, Brexit-is-Beelzebub lobby. I mean, we all lose the plot occasionally. We’re all susceptible to freaking out.
One day you’re a paragon of measured political chatter and the next you’re on Twitter at 3am screaming ‘FASCIST!’ at eggs and plotting to make Hampstead a republic so you don’t have to share citizenship with former miners and women called Chardonnay who don’t like the EU.
Meltdowns happen. I get it. Let’s not be too hard on these people who’ve left the land of reason for the world of WTF, where Godwin’s Law is permanently suspended...
But there’s one thing for which I’ll never forgive them: making me defend Piers Morgan. Anything but this. Alas, needs must... Yes, this is how thoroughly the plot has been lost by the EU-backing, Hillary-pining part of the chattering class: they’ve managed to make Piers Morgan look like the voice of reason. Heaven help us. Or them.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/trump-fearing-brexit-loathing-set-make-even-piers-morgan-look-reasonable/
Just thought it was very very shoddy from the Mail. They'd already sussed that there was more to his "trading" than met the eye, and even he admitted much of his income came from "coaching" new marks. Quick scan of the media database (or google news - the exposé was only two months ago!) would have found the Sunday Times piece. A scroll down his Twitter feed would show he was a perennial show-off in between occasional plugs to join his "trading team". Five minutes on google would show how he works, if your common sense wasn't enough to deduce there must be a referral/affiliate scheme somewhere along the line - a young chap claiming 60k profit/month on the back of a student loan shouldn't sound credible. And sadly the Sunday Times piece shows just how dodgy some of what was being pushed was.
Also some mention must go to Channel 4 for sticking him on their Rich Kids Go Shopping "documentary", letting him flaunt his lifestyle, push his social media profile, and sell his "follow me if you want to get rich like me" story. With no critical examination of his claims, just showing him "make a thousand pounds in fifteen minutes". Goodness knows how many thousands of pounds he made from the exposure. But then, we all know that C4 "reality documentaries" are not really "journalism".
The Mail has given the guy free publicity before. Even for the same thing before - oh no, I've had a supercar crash! Fortunately I have LOTS OF MONEY from my trading system so it doesn't really matter! And I am big on social media so follow me on Twitter/Insta if you wanna get rich too! I even do coaching for the newbs!!
That they were so desperate to uncritically run the provided pictures of smashed up supercars, plus some cringey "rich kids of Insta" stuff, without joining any of the dots together that were right there in front of them, was poor stuff.
(The comments section BTL is also disappointing, occasionally more switched-on readers do point out "erm, can't you guys see what is going on here?" or even warn other readers "if you're tempted to follow this guy, google first, DO NOT GET INVOLVED WITH HIM" ... but no, it's the bland "well done you but don't flaunt your wealth if you don't want to get in trouble" or "wish I knew his secret" type of stuff.)
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.9f8d2c71-7848-416e-9425-0d911d5fff70/copeland-by-electon-index
But a new leader could keep the situation roughly where it was in 2015 where-as a Jezza leadership would give the Tories a landslide in all probability.
"Nonetheless, the UK remained the only European state in the world's top five defence spenders in 2016.
"If all Nato European countries were in 2016 to have met this 2 per cent of GDP target, their defence spending would have needed to rise by over 40 per cent."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/14/uk-dips-nato-target-2pc-national-defence-spending
youre becoming a regular :-)
In case anyone was wondering how to work out the prices on Spread betting 25/10 Indices, you take the first place % (betting to 100%) and multiply by .25, then do the same for 2nd place and multiply by 10
So in Stoke, Labour are 50% chance to win on Betfair, that gives you 12.5points, and Sporting Index must think they have roughly 37.5% chance of coming second, which gives you 3.75 leading to their midpoint being 16.25 (15.5-17)
Sorry if this is obvious!
Depending on how many questions from the insurance company you want to answer, I suppose.
Of course, in political betting we don't get to rerun the same contest under exactly the same conditions again and again, so we can never say that any particular set of odds was right or wrong. Nonetheless, we shouldn't be at all surprised that an outcome to which the betting markets assign a one in three probability occurs. On the contrary, we should be surprised if such a thing rarely occurred.
This means that Richmond doesn't tell us anything about the Copeland probability. We can only use our judgement, on limited information, as to whether the Tories have a higher or lower probability of winning than the 69% implied by the odds.
FWIW, I'm on Labour.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2017-02-12/comment/a-reminder-for-remainers-the-uneducated-protect-us-from-brilliant-idiots-cqv08b6pp