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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but reme

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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    PlatoSaid said:

    Joel B Pollack
    Beyond ridiculous. @CNN claims the mainstream media asks good questions at presidential pressers. Reminder: https://t.co/0PRssauoJl

    Nice to know - the media blew a gasket when Trump wasn't asked about Flynn at his joint press conference with Trudeau.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    edited February 2017
    felix said:

    Patrick said:

    You seem to have a view of pensioners as poor old people. They're rich! (On average). What % of supercars are bought by the over 60? Alot. Who is buying cruises and running the heating on full? Who overspends on christmas presents? Who bets on politics? Who goes to theatre? Who drinks champagne? I'd contend that much of the exuberant spending in our consumption heavy economic model is spent by those pesky oldies and all their wonga.

    Certainly, in my circle we're doing our bit!
    A gradual rise in interest rates over the next 2 years would be a very healthy sign of a truly recovering economy.
    Indeed.

    It's like the patient has recovered from a heart attack but is still being kept on life-support - Which in itself is not without consequences for the patient.
    welshowl said:



    The other part in all of this, is the devastating effect low interest rates have on pensions, with both companies and individuals having to "defensively save" (liquidity trap I believe it's called?) to build ever bigger funds to compensate for such measly returns. That is also a huge drag on demand.

    Good point.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited February 2017
    Total health spending ought to rise to around 11% of GDP, not the current 9% or so that we have now. That would match France/Germany.
    At the same time the billions need to be looked after in the NHS - ye but its only overspending by 20 million here, 10 million there; the blind costs £800 to procure because we need to tick a hundred boxes with it. All that sort of crap needs to be cut out, Lansley's reforms just added cost for no real benefit so far as I can work out. As for Brown and the GP settlement/legacy PFI nonsense he's left us with. Well.

    More joined up thinking between homes and the NHS to get people to the appropriate place (Out of a bed, into a halfway house or w/e)
    But on top of all that it could do with more cash. We're aging as a population and although by definition you can never have a perfect public health service (Demand is infinite) it is not in the state I think as commonly portrayed and some extra billions SPENT THE RIGHT WAY would definitely help.

    The right have a point that alot of the cash is pissed up the wall, and the left that there isn't enough of it.
    I think both are correct. Sort the spending and increase the spending.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Remember how much we all like a Stoke housing technicality...

    https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/831416274790051840

    If I lived in Newcastle-under-Lyme, I'd be offended if someone said I lived in Stoke!
    That just demonstrates how parochial an area it is. Reminds me of people who insist that Gateshead is an entirely separate town to Newcastle when it is palpably a suburb in the same city, whatever the local administrators say. These petty obsessions hold cities back – Manchester and London have the right idea – merge and govern. Size matters.
    Mr Bob, it's some years since I lived in the area, but there was a distinct difference between the two towns. And not just the Tyne!
    The 'people who insist' are, in my experience, 'the people of Gateshead'.......easiest way to wind them up is to refer to 'the Newcastle Millennium Bridge' or 'The Sage Newcastle'.....
    WRONG. My wife is a Geordie, from Gateshead. She says she is from Newcastle. I know the area well. You are talking about a small parochial group.
    Not in my experience of living there for 15 years. Now back to your Focus Group of One.....
    I worked in Gateshead for 20 years - people from Newcastle would NEVER cross any of the five bridges to work or shop in Gateshead.
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    Mr. Rex, in 2,000 years time, the civilised will still be referring to the Second Punic War, and the tedious will still be referring to a campaign bus :p
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    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Lock him up for violating The Logan Act.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited February 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Lock him up for violating The Logan Act.
    Trump or Flynn ?

    Flynn I see. He could well be tried for that.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,798

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.

    hey

    you joined Corbyns party

    people in glasshouses etc
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Lock him up for violating The Logan Act.
    Trump or Flynn ?
    The latter for sure, Trump ? Depends if Flynn was acting under orders from Trump.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.

    There is a car bumper sticker that goes as follows "This car might be old and slow, but its paid for and in front of yours". Trump might observe the same applies to being POTUS ;)
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited February 2017

    Mr. Rex, in 2,000 years time, the civilised will still be referring to the Second Punic War, and the tedious will still be referring to a campaign bus :p

    The Romans won. Suck it up.

    Edit: just to bring things down to the same level as the arguments about the bus!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,587
    edited February 2017
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Essexit said:

    In his last blog post on the referendum, Cummings suggests that the betting markets may have been skewed by hedge funds. He doesn't have hard evidence, but points out the following:
    - Betting markets have become more important as a way of predicting results
    - He knows that some funds had private polling pointing to a Leave win
    - The amount of money required to skew markets and send false signals to rivals is small compared to the amounts to be made y
    With all that in mind, why wouldn't they do it?

    Because if that is why they were doing it they could be locked up.
    For what?
    The amount of money required to skew markets and send false signals to rivals is small compared to the amounts to be made

    Sounds like classic market abuse to me
    betting markets, not stock markets. I've no idea how they're regulated but the sentence doesn't make sense. If they carried out private polling predicting a Leave vote then they would have bet on Leave. And vice versa, presumably, albeit it might have been "inside" knowledge (good luck with proving that in court).

    What false signals would they have sent to rivals? Adding in their weekly performance update a bit about how they expected Remain to win?

    Edit: I see @Pulpstar got there first.
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    Mr. Rex, it was rigged. Flaminius was so stupid. What a loser! Led his army to total annihilation. Sad!
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    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Trump was told by the DoJ that Flynn was a liability weeks ago.

    http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/319361-doj-warned-wh-on-flynn-report

    I wonder what else he has been told and has ignored.

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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017

    Jesus. Are we still going to be having this same bloody argument in 2021?

    What a depressing thought.

    Only on here. After the next GE the public won't give a cr@p, either the tories got kicked out in which case they got their just desserts, or they got re-elected in which case the public decided that the suggestion we might considering spending 350m on the NHS wasnt enough to elect someone else.
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    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.

    hey

    you joined Corbyns party

    people in glasshouses etc

    But UKIP think I am great!

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,798

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Trump was told by the DoJ that Flynn was a liability weeks ago.

    http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/319361-doj-warned-wh-on-flynn-report

    I wonder what else he has been told and has ignored.

    Labour were told Corbyn was a liability 2 years ago, he's still there
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @CarlottaVance

    Surely you mean my focus group of hundreds? My wife's massive family all live in Gateshead, I visit regularly, and I lived in the region myself for several years. There are always going to be some parochial types (that's across the park from me, there be dragons) but the truth is cities grow and expand over time. Manchester, London and Liverpool realise this – hence why they have wisely merged into combined authorities and are governed by a strategic mayor. More fool Newcastle for not taking the opportunity.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Mr. Rex, it was rigged. Flaminius was so stupid. What a loser! Led his army to total annihilation. Sad!

    Mr Eagles will be along shortly to say something similar about Zama, I've no doubt.

    Personally I find all this Second Punic War stuff a bit new-fangled. I'm waiting for a thread to get hijacked by a discussion of whether Ramses II or Muwatalli II was the real victor at Kadesh.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Trump was told by the DoJ that Flynn was a liability weeks ago.

    http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/319361-doj-warned-wh-on-flynn-report

    I wonder what else he has been told and has ignored.

    Labour were told Corbyn was a liability 2 years ago, he's still there

    Er, yes - and he is totally irrelevant. Unfortunately, Trump isn't.

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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    GIN1138 said:

    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So now that inflation is *finally* getting back towards trend, any chance that interest rates might begin to move upwards to a more sensible level?

    My Mother put £15,000 into an ISA with a floating rate last year (we figured rates couldn't go lower so no point having a fixed rate) and what happened? BoE, against what Boy George had been promising before the referendum, cut the rate again lol.

    They interest she's earning on her ISA is just derisory.

    Hopefully not. Most of Gen X are mortgaged to the hilt and raises in interest rates are a surefire way to depress aggregate demand. Many more people are borrowers or parents of borrowers than are savers without any mortgaged children.
    So we just indefinitely keep rates around where they was when the economy suffered its heart attack in 2008?

    Surely an inflation rate of around 2-3% and an interest rate of around 2-3% is what we should be aiming for as a sign that the economy is back to a long term sensible situation?
    That is the rate than most mortgagees are paying on their mortgages now. If you increase the base rate to 3% you are looking at mortgages at something around 6-7%. Result - massive slump in aggregate demand from exactly the group of people that keep the economy moving.
    Well, I didn't say increase it to 3% I said increase it to 2-3%. 3% would be at the far upper level.

    So lets say we meet in the middle and aim for an interest rate of 2.5% I really think a sensible, healthy economy should be able to cope with an interest rate of 2.5%.

    That would still be a lot lower than the interest rates through most of my life up to 2008 - Including during most of the last Labour government until the final two years - When rates were at 5-6% on average.
    Yes, but you have to examine what the market will bear. It won't bear such a large hike without a severe impact on aggregate demand.

    Well of course you wouldn't hike rates from pretty much 0% to 2.5% overnight.

    If they did it I'd expect it to happen slowly over a couple of years.

    Lets say by 2020, 2% inflation. 2.5% interest rate with tax maintained at a sensible level and bobs your uncle - We're back to normal.
    2020 is less than three years away. A short time for a huge spike.

    Interesting that the PB-Savers-Without-Mortgaged-Children favour a huge hike in interest rates.

    Thankfully for the rest of the country the Monetary Policy Committee beg to differ.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Jesus. Are we still going to be having this same bloody argument in 2021?

    What a depressing thought.

    Only on here. After the next GE the public won't give a cr@p, either the tories got kicked out in which case they got their just desserts, or they got re-elected in which case the public decided that the suggestion we might considering spending 350m on the NHS wasnt enough to elect someone else.
    I'm ahead of the curve then. I don't give a cr@p already.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Essexit said:

    In his last blog post on the referendum, Cummings suggests that the betting markets may have been skewed by hedge funds. He doesn't have hard evidence, but points out the following:
    - Betting markets have become more important as a way of predicting results
    - He knows that some funds had private polling pointing to a Leave win
    - The amount of money required to skew markets and send false signals to rivals is small compared to the amounts to be made y
    With all that in mind, why wouldn't they do it?

    Because if that is why they were doing it they could be locked up.
    For what?
    The amount of money required to skew markets and send false signals to rivals is small compared to the amounts to be made

    Sounds like classic market abuse to me
    betting markets, not stock markets. I've no idea how they're regulated but the sentence doesn't make sense. If they carried out private polling predicting a Leave vote then they would have bet on Leave. And vice versa, presumably, albeit it might have been "inside" knowledge (good luck with proving that in court).

    What false signals would they have sent to rivals? Adding in their weekly performance update a bit about how they expected Remain to win?

    Edit: I see @Pulpstar got there first.
    May be they are smarter than me, but if they are betting Remain then I don't see how they make money on the betting markets for leave winning... the only way @Essexit 's post makes sense is if they are making money else where - on forex or the stock markets. Forex probably the easiest.

    But this is a fairly pointless discussion about how you interpret someone else's post...
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    weejonnie said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Joel B Pollack
    Beyond ridiculous. @CNN claims the mainstream media asks good questions at presidential pressers. Reminder: https://t.co/0PRssauoJl

    Nice to know - the media blew a gasket when Trump wasn't asked about Flynn at his joint press conference with Trudeau.
    I could spend a working day pointing this out - but it changes few minds. Haters, hate.

    Bill and Obama said exactly the same stuff about walls, immigration etc - it's all on YouTube - but the liberals can't cope with it and convince themselves it never happened.

    Now it's all FASCIST HITLER NAZI.

    Pathetic.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Lock him up for violating The Logan Act.
    Trump or Flynn ?
    The latter for sure, Trump ? Depends if Flynn was acting under orders from Trump.
    Could Trump be vulnerable for his stint as Scottish Business Ambassador 2006-15?

    I know it was a Jack McConnell appointment, but he lasted through all of Salmond and a fair bit of Sturgeon. If I were the SNP I'd be pretty bloody embarrassed about that.
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    In really big news today, the Settle to Carlisle railway is reintroducing scheduled services pulled by a steam locomotive. Huzzah!

    The good doctor Sunil will no doubt be packing his bags for a journey North as we speak, and Mr. Jessup will be penning a post as to why this is a massive retrograde step, will do nothing to increase capacity and only the technology of the mid-twentieth century can get us through the 21st century.

    Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

    Already off to a cracking start this year :) This time last week I was actually at Skipton, but only did the electric train from Leeds.

    January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

    February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York, Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby. Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester).
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is doing fine. Flynn engaged in international diplomacy as a private citizen by his own admission so had to go.

    Lock him up for violating The Logan Act.
    Trump or Flynn ?
    The latter for sure, Trump ? Depends if Flynn was acting under orders from Trump.
    Could Trump be vulnerable for his stint as Scottish Business Ambassador 2006-15?

    I know it was a Jack McConnell appointment, but he lasted through all of Salmond and a fair bit of Sturgeon. If I were the SNP I'd be pretty bloody embarrassed about that.
    Nope.
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    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.

    Clearly a usage of the word "Genius" I was not previously aware of..... :D
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    weejonnie said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Joel B Pollack
    Beyond ridiculous. @CNN claims the mainstream media asks good questions at presidential pressers. Reminder: https://t.co/0PRssauoJl

    Nice to know - the media blew a gasket when Trump wasn't asked about Flynn at his joint press conference with Trudeau.
    I could spend a working day pointing this out - but it changes few minds. Haters, hate.

    Bill and Obama said exactly the same stuff about walls, immigration etc - it's all on YouTube - but the liberals can't cope with it and convince themselves it never happened.

    Now it's all FASCIST HITLER NAZI.

    Pathetic.
    What's that got to do with Trump being asked about Flynn?
    "Mr Flynn is said to have misled officials about his call with Russia's ambassador before his own appointment.
    It is illegal for private citizens to conduct US diplomacy."
    Surely that would be an expected and valid subject to question him on?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Total health spending ought to rise to around 11% of GDP, not the current 9% or so that we have now. That would match France/Germany.

    Stick it on general taxation and call it "The £350m Brexit Bonus". People keep saying "Put more money into the NHS". Who could possibly complain?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    The Dear Leader (Yes that one)'s brother has just come to an unfortunate end in Malaysia.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.

    I enjoyed you signalling what you consider to be your no bullshit, straight talking virtues there.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    The Dear Leader (Yes that one)'s brother has just come to an unfortunate end in Malaysia.
    Although I understand that since he tried to go to Disneyland he was out of favour in Heavenly-Paradise-on-Earth (aka Pyongyang)
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.

    I've met him. Or more precisely I have seen his mummified corpse in Cairo.

    One thing about him is, that poem Ozymandias is about him - there's a fallen down statue of him in Egyptian Thebes (Luxor) - and the poem is therefore complete bollocks, because you still can't walk 100 yards in Egypt without coming across yet another 100x life size statue of the bastard.
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    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.

    What with Flynn resigning just hours after the Washington Post published its story on him and the warnings given to Trump it's almost as if it was that which prompted him to go. Surely not.

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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    Your post would have been great had you avoided using the puerile patois of rightwing internet warriors.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.

    I enjoyed you signalling what you consider to be your no bullshit, straight talking virtues there.

    Mind you, as I sit out my final hours glowing in the dark there will be a small part of me saying "in your face, Hillary".
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,272
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    And more fake news - it's getting absurd now.

    I saw this supposed twitter account and immediately thought fake. An ITV journalist retweeted cobblers from Rogue White House as a potential source. They've lost their minds

    Gabriel Malor
    NYTimes has removed the portion including tweets from an unverified account purporting to be Flynn. This is the perfect mistake for 2017. https://t.co/ioGgAzVTfe
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.

    I enjoyed you signalling what you consider to be your no bullshit, straight talking virtues there.

    Ronseal-virtues-signalling?
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    A

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.

    What with Flynn resigning just hours after the Washington Post published its story on him and the warnings given to Trump it's almost as if it was that which prompted him to go. Surely not.

    A lucky coincidence for the MSM.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of disagreeing with a PB Leaver on politicalbetting.com
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    If I'm thinking a first strike by the USA could be justified then imagine what is going through "Mad Dog"'s head. I wouldn't book a trip to North Korea any time soon !
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,272
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
    Tensions might rise again though over Taiwan
  • Options

    Jesus. Are we still going to be having this same bloody argument in 2021?

    What a depressing thought.

    Only on here. After the next GE the public won't give a cr@p, either the tories got kicked out in which case they got their just desserts, or they got re-elected in which case the public decided that the suggestion we might considering spending 350m on the NHS wasnt enough to elect someone else.
    I'm ahead of the curve then. I don't give a cr@p already.
    "See, I'm not a monster. I'm just ahead of the curve!" - The Joker, in The Dark Knight (2008).
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Jobabob said:

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of disagreeing with a PB Leaver on politicalbetting.com
    A slightly more nuanced position :D:D
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
    Tensions might rise again though over Taiwan
    I think China and the USA would de-escalate before it became a nuclear war though. The Chinese aren't stupid, the problem for that region is that North Korea most definitely is stupid.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of disagreeing with a PB Leaver on politicalbetting.com
    A slightly more nuanced position :D:D
    :)
  • Options
    Jobabob said:

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of disagreeing with a PB Leaver on politicalbetting.com
    Voting REMAIN in last year's referendum is the epitome of virtue signalling in this virtue signalling world of ours :)
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    How to wind up the left: agree with them about something. It's like the "Gentleman doesn't want to 'aggle" bit in Life of Brian.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017
    Here's your chance to have your say:

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/feb/13/how-did-the-global-womens-marches-affect-you

    Somehow, I don't think 'Not in the slightest bit' is the answer they're fishing for.
  • Options
    They may well. By-elections are an excellent, largely cost-free opportunity to kick the government. They're also an opportunity to kick others. However, that 'cost-free' point may be critical. There is no risk to Sellafield if Labour win because the Tories will still be in government. Labour's negative campaign, by contrast, has more meaning for the obvious reason that the Conservatives can do something about local health services, and can make a decision this year.

    That dynamic wouldn't carry over to a general election and in a GE, I'd expect a Con win in Copeland if Corbyn remains Labour leader. But this isn't a general election and while it might be fun for some to kick Labour given the state they're in, there's more value to kicking the Tories.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    For @MarqueeMark

    Rare WHITE blackbird caught on camera in British garden.
    #nature #wildlife
    https://t.co/rYYkmwJI3q https://t.co/OdNEyY0bZy
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,272
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
    Tensions might rise again though over Taiwan
    I think China and the USA would de-escalate before it became a nuclear war though. The Chinese aren't stupid, the problem for that region is that North Korea most definitely is stupid.
    You would hope so. If North Korea sent a missile to Japan the Trump administration would certainly respond forcefully I agree
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.

    I've met him. Or more precisely I have seen his mummified corpse in Cairo.

    One thing about him is, that poem Ozymandias is about him - there's a fallen down statue of him in Egyptian Thebes (Luxor) - and the poem is therefore complete bollocks, because you still can't walk 100 yards in Egypt without coming across yet another 100x life size statue of the bastard.
    And if you make it as far as Abu Simbel there are three of them, a hell of a lot more than life sized.

    He had a bigger ego than Trump. Though possibly not as big as Bercow.
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    As a lifelong admirer of Ron and Maggie's battle against the Kremlin, it makes me weep that Owen Jones, with some legitimacy,can now hijack that noblest of causes on behalf of the British far Left:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/14/michael-flynn-vladimir-putin-populist-right-europe

    This must be how the old socialists of yore felt, when so many of their number went grovelling to Stalin.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PlatoSaid said:

    And more fake news - it's getting absurd now.

    I saw this supposed twitter account and immediately thought fake. An ITV journalist retweeted cobblers from Rogue White House as a potential source. They've lost their minds

    Gabriel Malor
    NYTimes has removed the portion including tweets from an unverified account purporting to be Flynn. This is the perfect mistake for 2017. https://t.co/ioGgAzVTfe

    A spoof Trumpite poster attacking fake news is a meta-spoof! Bravo!
  • Options
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    It's a lot more likely than that. 0.1% implies one nuclear war every 4000 years. I'd suggest that North Korea's actions alone run a much greater risk than that (not to mention the other nuclear powers).
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Here's your chance to have your say:

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/feb/13/how-did-the-global-womens-marches-affect-you

    Somehow, I don't think 'Not in the slightest bit' is the answer they're fishing for.

    Would "yer what?" do?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,272

    They may well. By-elections are an excellent, largely cost-free opportunity to kick the government. They're also an opportunity to kick others. However, that 'cost-free' point may be critical. There is no risk to Sellafield if Labour win because the Tories will still be in government. Labour's negative campaign, by contrast, has more meaning for the obvious reason that the Conservatives can do something about local health services, and can make a decision this year.

    That dynamic wouldn't carry over to a general election and in a GE, I'd expect a Con win in Copeland if Corbyn remains Labour leader. But this isn't a general election and while it might be fun for some to kick Labour given the state they're in, there's more value to kicking the Tories.
    From the phoning I have done Copeland is neck and neck, even if Labour win their majority will be down. It will be Brexit and nuclear power v the NHS
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.

    I've met him. Or more precisely I have seen his mummified corpse in Cairo.

    One thing about him is, that poem Ozymandias is about him - there's a fallen down statue of him in Egyptian Thebes (Luxor) - and the poem is therefore complete bollocks, because you still can't walk 100 yards in Egypt without coming across yet another 100x life size statue of the bastard.
    The original statue supposedly bears an inscription which is approximates to "King of Kings am I, Ozymandias. If anyone would know how great I am and where I lie, let him surpass one of my works." Shelley was probably commenting these pretensions and how little there was left to show of it, presumably he never visited Egypt ;)
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,587
    Ishmael_Z said:

    How to wind up the left: agree with them about something. It's like the "Gentleman doesn't want to 'aggle" bit in Life of Brian.

    Haven't you already agreed with the left in noting how the Nazis were keen to come together with and help their Jewish citizens leave Germany. Before Hitler went a bit mad, of course, that is.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    It's a lot more likely than that. 0.1% implies one nuclear war every 4000 years. I'd suggest that North Korea's actions alone run a much greater risk than that (not to mention the other nuclear powers).
    Don't think so - until PRK gets nukes themselves.

    At the moment China will roll them over in 48 hours if there is any serious risk of thinks spiraling out of control.

    If PRK gets nukes (and the capability to deliver them) then all bets are off...
  • Options

    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.

    On which subject, how many survivors are there of those who attended the last British coronation in person? It's a good job it was all televised.
  • Options
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.

    I enjoyed you signalling what you consider to be your no bullshit, straight talking virtues there.

    Mind you, as I sit out my final hours glowing in the dark there will be a small part of me saying "in your face, Hillary".
    https://twitter.com/thatdutchperson/status/827283588752171008
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,955
    edited February 2017
    Jobabob said:

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of disagreeing with a PB Leaver on politicalbetting.com
    PB Tory 'virtue signalling' is proving that Merkel is the anti-Christ because she took in refugees. When this left normal people scratching their heads they then set about proving that the refugees were 1. criminal 2. rapists 3 sexual molesters 4. adults pretending to be children. All of which proved that they weren't heartless bastards but people with a heart who cared about the Germans.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just got matched backing the Lib Dems at 70 on Betfair

    If the people who think they are a 30% chance mean it, there can be no way they are 70. I can only decipher they don't really mean it
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    Say what you like about the crazy North Koreans but they certainly come up with ingenius ways of bumping people off don't they?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/14/kim-jong-uns-older-brother-killed-north-korean-spies-poison1/
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The PB subtitles that you can't switch off are back I see
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2017

    Jobabob said:

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of disagreeing with a PB Leaver on politicalbetting.com
    Voting REMAIN in last year's referendum is the epitome of virtue signalling in this virtue signalling world of ours :)
    VIRTUE SIGNALLING! VIRTUE SIGNALLING! DO NOT MISS OUT! GET SOME LURVLY VIRTUE SIGNALLING HERE!!!!

    No Sunil - Voting REMAIN was the epitome of common sense. One does not get better trading with one's biggest markets by telling them to get lost!
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How to wind up the left: agree with them about something. It's like the "Gentleman doesn't want to 'aggle" bit in Life of Brian.

    Haven't you already agreed with the left in noting how the Nazis were keen to come together with and help their Jewish citizens leave Germany. Before Hitler went a bit mad, of course, that is.
    No, they were trying to expel them, not help them; but in the special case of expulsion where the specific aim was to send them to Palestine, their intention could be called (extremely unhelpfully, as I said at the time) Zionist. And Hitler was mad from the start, he expressly advocated genocide of the Jews as early as Mein Kampf (1925).

    So I don't see what your point is.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    isam said:

    Just got matched backing the Lib Dems at 70 on Betfair

    If the people who think they are a 30% chance mean it, there can be no way they are 70. I can only decipher they don't really mean it

    Blimey, who has given them a 30% chance ?

    I think it is maybe 3% or so.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
    Tensions might rise again though over Taiwan
    I think China and the USA would de-escalate before it became a nuclear war though. The Chinese aren't stupid, the problem for that region is that North Korea most definitely is stupid.
    No, they're not stupid; they're reckless. It's a different thing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,272

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    It's a lot more likely than that. 0.1% implies one nuclear war every 4000 years. I'd suggest that North Korea's actions alone run a much greater risk than that (not to mention the other nuclear powers).
    In the event of nuclear war which of TSE and OGH is the designated survivor in the PB nuclear bunker?
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Virtue signalling (v): The act of popping someone's belief bubble by pointing out the patently obvious

    Seems some lefties don't agree

    http://www.newstatesman.com/helen-lewis/2015/07/echo-chamber-social-media-luring-left-cosy-delusion-and-dangerous-insularity
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    What is going to be the impact on the Copeland by-election from the Toshiba troubles? They are the majority owner of the proposed nuclear powersite at Moorside and they are looking to dispose of their interests.

    Will we see some Government action over the next few days to facilitate a solution, perhaps bringing in a South Korean nuclear company?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Just got matched backing the Lib Dems at 70 on Betfair

    If the people who think they are a 30% chance mean it, there can be no way they are 70. I can only decipher they don't really mean it

    Blimey, who has given them a 30% chance ?

    I think it is maybe 3% or so.
    Someone earlier in this thread. Said they were on at 40s and thought it was 30% chance

    Probably the person who laid me 70!!!
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    isam said:

    Just got matched backing the Lib Dems at 70 on Betfair

    If the people who think they are a 30% chance mean it, there can be no way they are 70. I can only decipher they don't really mean it

    I doubt they are a 30 percent chance. Pretty sure that with a very low turnout that 70 is a humongous price.
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    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    It's a lot more likely than that. 0.1% implies one nuclear war every 4000 years. I'd suggest that North Korea's actions alone run a much greater risk than that (not to mention the other nuclear powers).
    Don't think so - until PRK gets nukes themselves.

    At the moment China will roll them over in 48 hours if there is any serious risk of thinks spiraling out of control.

    If PRK gets nukes (and the capability to deliver them) then all bets are off...
    They have atomic bombs because they've tested them. Whether they're capable of being fitted to a missile is unknown. That they're not full H-bombs is beside the point: they'd still do devastating damage to S Korea before the US and/or China put an end to it - and it'd still be a nuclear exchange.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.

    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
    Tensions might rise again though over Taiwan
    I think China and the USA would de-escalate before it became a nuclear war though. The Chinese aren't stupid, the problem for that region is that North Korea most definitely is stupid.
    Choose life, choose a blog, choose a Korea. Choose a step-family. Choose a f*cking big Twitter hashtag, choose energy-efficient washing machines, hybrid cars, the latest smart-phones and MP3 players. Choose good Bake-off recipes, choose organic produce, and mental health insurance. Choose the Help-to-Buy Scheme. Choose a matchbox-sized flat in central London. Choose your Facebook friends. Choose a budget flight on Ryanair and the meagre amount of luggage they let you take on board. Choose a snazzy shell-suit from Primark in a range of f*cking fabrics. Choose cordless DIY tools and wondering who the f*ck Andrew Marr's guests are on Sunday mornings. Choose sitting on that couch watching mind-numbing, spirit-crushing Reality TV shows, stuffing f*cking take-away food you ordered by mobile app. Choose rotting away at the end of it all, pissing your last in a badly-run old-people's home, nothing more than an embarrassment to the selfish, f*cked up social justice warriors you spawned to replace yourselves. Choose your future. Choose life... But why would I want to do a thing like that? I chose not to choose life. I chose somethin' else. And the reasons? There are no reasons. Who needs reasons when you've got Politicalbetting.com!
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    Pulpstar said:


    I think China and the USA would de-escalate before it became a nuclear war though. The Chinese aren't stupid, the problem for that region is that North Korea most definitely is stupid.

    I wouldn't say "definitely"; They've been playing the Crazy Fearsome Cripple Gambit successfully, and they wisely got themselves nuclear weapons in time to avoid going the way of Saddam and Gaddafi. They probably rational and deterrable, but you can't quite be sure.
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    HYUFD said:

    In the event of nuclear war which of TSE and OGH is the designated survivor in the PB nuclear bunker?

    Whichever gets there first, of course.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017

    No Sunil - Voting REMAIN was the epitome of common sense. One does not get better trading with one's biggest markets by telling them to get lost!

    Its just possible that 52% of the public didn't consider the short term economy to be the most important thing in their lives, even considering the bullshit of the treasury report and punishment budget. Yelling at them that their actions don't make economic sense wont get you very far.
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    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Just got matched backing the Lib Dems at 70 on Betfair

    If the people who think they are a 30% chance mean it, there can be no way they are 70. I can only decipher they don't really mean it

    Blimey, who has given them a 30% chance ?

    I think it is maybe 3% or so.
    3% is still near-enough double the 69/1 that isam got.
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    midwinter said:

    isam said:

    Just got matched backing the Lib Dems at 70 on Betfair

    If the people who think they are a 30% chance mean it, there can be no way they are 70. I can only decipher they don't really mean it

    I doubt they are a 30 percent chance. Pretty sure that with a very low turnout that 70 is a humongous price.
    70 is a great price. I've had a pints worth earlier at 55
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.

    Well, it usually started with a bit of incest, I believe.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Rex, Ramses.

    On the basis he's the only one I've heard of. I do know he lived so long all his children died before him, and when he did die everyone had forgotten how the ceremony of making a new pharaoh was meant to go.

    I've met him. Or more precisely I have seen his mummified corpse in Cairo.

    One thing about him is, that poem Ozymandias is about him - there's a fallen down statue of him in Egyptian Thebes (Luxor) - and the poem is therefore complete bollocks, because you still can't walk 100 yards in Egypt without coming across yet another 100x life size statue of the bastard.
    And if you make it as far as Abu Simbel there are three of them, a hell of a lot more than life sized.

    He had a bigger ego than Trump. Though possibly not as big as Bercow.
    Abu Simbel is beyond comprehension, until you see it. Moving it was even more amazing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCDQikYVnCA
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:
    The Stoke by-election is the ultimate race to the bottom. Maybe the Yellow Peril will indeed come through the middle!
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    The likelihood of nuclear war with Russia is less than with Hillary but the likelihood of nuclear war with China is higher under Trump
    I don't think China would retaliatory strike the USA if Trump was to melt Pyongyang.
    North Korea are seriously pushing it at the moment with their missile tests towards Japan, it is getting towards the point where a first strike by the USA could be well justified.
    Tensions might rise again though over Taiwan
    I think China and the USA would de-escalate before it became a nuclear war though. The Chinese aren't stupid, the problem for that region is that North Korea most definitely is stupid.
    No, they're not stupid; they're reckless. It's a different thing.
    Recklessness is a form of stupidity.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,272

    HYUFD said:

    In the event of nuclear war which of TSE and OGH is the designated survivor in the PB nuclear bunker?

    Whichever gets there first, of course.
    True enough
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    edited February 2017

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Jobabob said:

    Do I take it that the liberal media just don't get how Trump has run rings round them once again by being forced to dump his National Security Adviser after just three weeks? I note that he has brilliantly managed to drop his approval rating down to 40% as well. The bloke is a genius.


    Yes his genius and besting of the media was there for all to see when he a) created a toothless executive order that invoked the rejection of the judiciary and b) managed to be snapped breaking security protocol by signing official documents with the Japanese PM in an open air restaurant, thus invoking widespread derision from the rest of the world. He really is an absolute Don, the Donald.
    I think you can afford to stop virtue-signalling on this one. The likelihood of nuclear war in the next four years is, oooh, ten times what it would have been under Hillary. The world therefore divides clearly into those who are anti-Trump, and those in imperative need of straitjackets and thorazine.
    I suspect it is A HUNDRED times more likely! It has moved from 0.001% to 0.1%
    It's a lot more likely than that. 0.1% implies one nuclear war every 4000 years. I'd suggest that North Korea's actions alone run a much greater risk than that (not to mention the other nuclear powers).
    Don't think so - until PRK gets nukes themselves.

    At the moment China will roll them over in 48 hours if there is any serious risk of thinks spiraling out of control.

    If PRK gets nukes (and the capability to deliver them) then all bets are off...
    They have atomic bombs because they've tested them. Whether they're capable of being fitted to a missile is unknown. That they're not full H-bombs is beside the point: they'd still do devastating damage to S Korea before the US and/or China put an end to it - and it'd still be a nuclear exchange.
    China are the ones holding North Korea back from using nukes, not the US. The US deters them from launching a conventional attack on South Korea.

    If PRK were ever so reckless as to try that I expect China would very quickly sort it out, even if they have little love for South Korea.

    They have too much to lose.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,322
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Stoke by-election is the ultimate race to the bottom. Maybe the Yellow Peril will indeed come through the middle!
    I think that not enough people yet think it is winnable for the Lib Dems to come through to win, at least at the moment, but on the ground I do hear that "the signs are encouraging".
This discussion has been closed.