King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.
Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.
Ireland 60+ points now.
To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK.
One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.
Hmm. There were/are quite a few Portuguese working on the land in East Anglia. Around 2000 a couple of CABx had to find advisors who spoke the language because of the way they were treated. Of course, there aren’t as many of them as there are East Europeans
I didn't say none, also Poland has 4 times as many people. But I think (might be wrong) but the movement of people to / from Portugal has been fairly modest and more a drip drip drip.
According to wikipedia from the census, it has gone from ~40k to ~100k in 15 years. Have to be a bit careful as well because a lot of Brazilians and Indians have got Portuguese passports specifically to come to the UK.
So in the first 15 years of membership (1986 -> 2001) basically bugger all people came from Portugal to the UK. More recently has seen more people coming, but nowhere in the same numbers as Poland, Romania etc (I believe already there are more Romanians registered here than Portuguese despite Romanians only technically had access to free movement for handful of years).
But I think my initial point is valid, Spain and Portugal joined in 1986 and especially Portugal was very poor and hardly any Portuguese rushed to come here.
Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?
He ballsed up the constitution too...
Since Blair's constitutional proposition was clearly stated in the Labour '97 manifesto which was voted for in a landslide, presumably the British people ballsed up the constution.
Yes, I am sure that was the primary reason for the landslide.
You're not suggestiing that voters were too stupid to know for what they were voting? Wash your mouth out with liberals' tears.
I think it ironic that the likes of Mssrs Glenn, Meeks and P (Scott) all think the UK is so weak and powerless going into the Brexit negotiations, and yet Junckers thinks this:
"Now everyone is saying in relation to Trump and Brexit: 'Now is Europe's big chance. Now is the time to close ranks and march together,'" Juncker said in the radio interview which will be aired on Sunday.
"I wish it will be like this, but will it happen? I have some doubt. Because the Brits will manage without big effort to divide the remaining 27 member states."
Sure, that may just really be a warning shot across the bows of the 27 rather than what he really thinks, but you don't fire warning shots without cause.
I think it ironic that the likes of Mssrs Glenn, Meeks and P (Scott) all think the UK is so weak and powerless going into the Brexit negotiations, and yet Junckers thinks this:
"Now everyone is saying in relation to Trump and Brexit: 'Now is Europe's big chance. Now is the time to close ranks and march together,'" Juncker said in the radio interview which will be aired on Sunday.
"I wish it will be like this, but will it happen? I have some doubt. Because the Brits will manage without big effort to divide the remaining 27 member states."
Sure, that may just really be a warning shot across the bows of the 27 rather than what he really thinks, but you don't fire warning shots without cause.
The reaction to Trump, Brexit, 5*, FN, etc etc etc, is not hmmm it seems that there is a reaction to how globalization and EU superstate isn't working out too well for a sizable proportion of people, hmmmm, what we need more bigger ever closer EU.
The thinking is the problem isn't too much EU / globalization, it is too little of it. One of the EU bureaucrats actually said on the BBC2 documentary that the time now is for a "proper EU".
I said during the EU ref, the vote wasn't as being sold i.e. status quo vs exit, it was ever closer union vs exit.
Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?
He ballsed up the constitution too...
Since Blair's constitutional proposition was clearly stated in the Labour '97 manifesto which was voted for in a landslide, presumably the British people ballsed up the constution.
Yes, I am sure that was the primary reason for the landslide.
You're not suggestiing that voters were too stupid to know for what they were voting? Wash your mouth out with liberals' tears.
Nope, just that they have priorities.
And that all winners of elections think that they have a mandate for every last piece of the kitchen and sink in the manifesto, whereas in reality they usually only won because the electorate wanted to kick the other bastards out.
I would doubt that the electorate positively vote for more than one or max two of the winning side's manifesto promises in any given election.
I think it ironic that the likes of Mssrs Glenn, Meeks and P (Scott) all think the UK is so weak and powerless going into the Brexit negotiations, and yet Junckers thinks this:
"Now everyone is saying in relation to Trump and Brexit: 'Now is Europe's big chance. Now is the time to close ranks and march together,'" Juncker said in the radio interview which will be aired on Sunday.
"I wish it will be like this, but will it happen? I have some doubt. Because the Brits will manage without big effort to divide the remaining 27 member states."
Sure, that may just really be a warning shot across the bows of the 27 rather than what he really thinks, but you don't fire warning shots without cause.
The reaction to Trump, Brexit, 5*, FN, etc etc etc, is not hmmm it seems that there is a reaction to how globalization and EU superstate isn't working out too well for a sizable proportion of people, hmmmm, what we need more bigger ever closer EU.
The thinking is the problem isn't too much EU / globalization, it is too little of it. One of the EU bureaucrats actually said on the BBC2 documentary that the time now is for a "proper EU".
I said during the EU ref, the vote wasn't as being sold i.e. status quo vs exit, it was ever closer union vs exit.
I agree that that is the reaction from the majority of EU bureaucrats. I was commenting more on expectations of the negotiating dynamics.
Hmm - 2019 stand down. Merkel may be looking for another job around then (whether or not she wins in September this year). The EU desperately needs a respected heavyweight leading one of the institutions, not minnows from Belgium and Luxembourg.
I think it ironic that the likes of Mssrs Glenn, Meeks and P (Scott) all think the UK is so weak and powerless going into the Brexit negotiations, and yet Junckers thinks this:
"Now everyone is saying in relation to Trump and Brexit: 'Now is Europe's big chance. Now is the time to close ranks and march together,'" Juncker said in the radio interview which will be aired on Sunday.
"I wish it will be like this, but will it happen? I have some doubt. Because the Brits will manage without big effort to divide the remaining 27 member states."
Sure, that may just really be a warning shot across the bows of the 27 rather than what he really thinks, but you don't fire warning shots without cause.
The reaction to Trump, Brexit, 5*, FN, etc etc etc, is not hmmm it seems that there is a reaction to how globalization and EU superstate isn't working out too well for a sizable proportion of people, hmmmm, what we need more bigger ever closer EU.
The thinking is the problem isn't too much EU / globalization, it is too little of it. One of the EU bureaucrats actually said on the BBC2 documentary that the time now is for a "proper EU".
I said during the EU ref, the vote wasn't as being sold i.e. status quo vs exit, it was ever closer union vs exit.
...and yet the idea that a federal EU is in the works is still treated like a conspiracy theory. It was the openly-stated intention of the EU's founders, and of its current leaders. Without Britain the brakes will be off on ever-closer union and others will follow us out.
King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.
Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.
Ireland 60+ points now.
To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK.
One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.
Hmm. There were/are quite a few Portuguese working on the land in East Anglia. Around 2000 a couple of CABx had to find advisors who spoke the language because of the way they were treated. Of course, there aren’t as many of them as there are East Europeans
I didn't say none, also Poland has 4 times as many people. But I think (might be wrong) but the movement of people to / from Portugal has been fairly modest and more a drip drip drip.
According to wikipedia from the census, it has gone from ~40k to ~100k in 15 years. Have to be a bit careful as well because a lot of Brazilians and Indians have got Portuguese passports specifically to come to the UK.
So in the first 15 years of membership (1986 -> 2001) basically bugger all people came from Portugal to the UK. More recently has seen more people coming, but nowhere in the same numbers as Poland, Romania etc (I believe already there are more Romanians registered here than Portuguese despite Romanians only technically had access to free movement for handful of years).
But I think my initial point is valid, Spain and Portugal joined in 1986 and especially Portugal was very poor and hardly any Portuguese rushed to come here.
Portugal's gdp per capita is a third more than Poland's and more than double that of Romania and Bulgaria. Free movement could also be extended to Serbia, Albania and Macedonia and maybe Bosnia too in the next decade which are all EU candidate nations
I think it ironic that the likes of Mssrs Glenn, Meeks and P (Scott) all think the UK is so weak and powerless going into the Brexit negotiations, and yet Junckers thinks this:
"Now everyone is saying in relation to Trump and Brexit: 'Now is Europe's big chance. Now is the time to close ranks and march together,'" Juncker said in the radio interview which will be aired on Sunday.
"I wish it will be like this, but will it happen? I have some doubt. Because the Brits will manage without big effort to divide the remaining 27 member states."
Sure, that may just really be a warning shot across the bows of the 27 rather than what he really thinks, but you don't fire warning shots without cause.
The reaction to Trump, Brexit, 5*, FN, etc etc etc, is not hmmm it seems that there is a reaction to how globalization and EU superstate isn't working out too well for a sizable proportion of people, hmmmm, what we need more bigger ever closer EU.
The thinking is the problem isn't too much EU / globalization, it is too little of it. One of the EU bureaucrats actually said on the BBC2 documentary that the time now is for a "proper EU".
I said during the EU ref, the vote wasn't as being sold i.e. status quo vs exit, it was ever closer union vs exit.
...and yet the idea that a federal EU is in the works is still treated like a conspiracy theory. It was the openly-stated intention of the EU's founders, and of its current leaders. Without Britain the brakes will be off on ever-closer union and others will follow us out.
The UK was of course never a founder member of the EEC but was originally in EFTA with the Scandinavian nations, Austria, Switzerland and Portugal
Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.
As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.
Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.
Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.
His two mistakes were the Iraq war and letting Gordon go bonkers with the chequebook.
The million Poles have settled well, with far less disruption than previous waves of migrants. A credit to both their new and old countries.
His three mistakes....
The third is the Lisbon treaty.. and the fourth...
Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.
As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.
Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.
Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.
His two mistakes were the Iraq war and letting Gordon go bonkers with the chequebook.
The million Poles have settled well, with far less disruption than previous waves of migrants. A credit to both their new and old countries.
His three mistakes....
The third is the Lisbon treaty.. and the fourth...
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.
He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.
Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.
Pass the sick bag.
lol
dissolve the electorate, they are not worthy
After the uprising of the 23rd of June The Editor of the Guardian Had leaflets distributed in Hoxton Stating that the people Had forfeited the confidence of the government And could win it back only By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier In that case for the government To dissolve the people And elect another?
"The public are more likely to be favourable toward Nigel Farage than they are toward Jeremy Corbyn (22% v 20%).
More British people have a favourable opinion of Donald Trump (14%) than Tim Farron (11%), although President Trump’s negative scores are considerably worse (68% unfavourable v 26%)."
King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.
Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.
Ireland 60+ points now.
To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK.
One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.
Hmm. There were/are quite a few Portuguese working on the land in East Anglia. Around 2000 a couple of CABx had to find advisors who spoke the language because of the way they were treated. Of course, there aren’t as many of them as there are East Europeans
I didn't say none, also Poland has 4 times as many people. But I think (might be wrong) but the movement of people to / from Portugal has been fairly modest and more a drip drip drip.
According to wikipedia from the census, it has gone from ~40k to ~100k in 15 years. Have to be a bit careful as well because a lot of Brazilians and Indians have got Portuguese passports specifically to come to the UK.
So in the first 15 years of membership (1986 -> 2001) basically bugger all people came from Portugal to the UK. More recently has seen more people coming, but nowhere in the same numbers as Poland, Romania etc (I believe already there are more Romanians registered here than Portuguese despite Romanians only technically had access to free movement for handful of years).
But I think my initial point is valid, Spain and Portugal joined in 1986 and especially Portugal was very poor and hardly any Portuguese rushed to come here.
@CarlottaVance can speak with more authority but from my family connections I know there was a big (relatively speaking) influx of poor Portuguese (especially from Madeira) into the Channel Islands - especially Jersey at that time.
There are now articles/pages in Portuguese in the local Jersey Evening Post for those who didn't really integrate.
"The public are more likely to be favourable toward Nigel Farage than they are toward Jeremy Corbyn (22% v 20%).
More British people have a favourable opinion of Donald Trump (14%) than Tim Farron (11%), although President Trump’s negative scores are considerably worse (68% unfavourable v 26%)."
Farron has a number of problems, but high on the list is - of course - obscurity.
David Herdson was probably right in his previous piece - they're throwing resources at selected local council by-elections in the hope of creating a narrative of success based on the intensive targetting of tiny numbers of voters at insignificant, low turnout by-elections that few people care about. The intention of this - paired with the fundamentalist Anti-Ukip positioning on the EU - is to try to get themselves back in the game by garnering more media attention.
It's a nice try, and it may be helping a little - the ComRes voter churn figures are similar to other recent surveys, in that the 2015 Lib Dem vote is quite soft but overall they're gaining sufficient 2015 Labour voters to cover all of their losses and add some extra strength on top of that - but they've still got a very long way to go.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
Why are you so pathetically grateful for a crumb from a Brussels nobody ? Cringeworthy subservience.
@CarlottaVance can speak with more authority but from my family connections I know there was a big (relatively speaking) influx of poor Portuguese (especially from Madeira) into the Channel Islands - especially Jersey at that time.
There are now articles/pages in Portuguese in the local Jersey Evening Post for those who didn't really integrate.
That is interesting, Mr M. Unless one had great wodges of cash or had accepted a public sector vacancy (e.g. science teacher), it used to be impossible to get a resident's permit for Jersey. I wonder what changed. Local youngsters moving off island and a labour shortage in the agriculture sector, perhaps.
P.S. I am told that there is now quite a large Romanian community in Portugal.
Wales should have won that, but England under Eddie Jones really have something special...the Alex Ferguson-esque find a way to win even when second best team and missing lots of the best players.
Anecdote report, take with appropriate caution. Spent the day in Stoke with a team of 10 from Nottingham, part of the roughly 250 Labour canvassers who had come in from all points of the compass - trains, buses, cars, Momentum groups, Scots members, Welsh members, you name it. We were in a fairly central ward where UKIP and indeed the BNP have been strong in the past. I spoke to 100 or so people. We ran into Nuttall, who was out with 3 helpers - we politely wished each other a pleasant day
It seemed a bit of an unpopularity contest there. Voters were friendly and chatty - much more so than in pissed-off wards in some run-down communities that I've canvassed in the past - and actually interested in discussing issues. But one voter summed up the general mood: "I don't want to give Labour a vote of confidence. I don't want that carpetbagger Nuttall. I wouldn't ever vote Tory or LibDem. I'm blowed if I know what I'll do."
Certainly on the evidence of this patch it's a pure Lab-UKIP contest, to the extent that I wonder if the Conservatives will retain their deposit: in 5 hours on the doorstep, I met one single Tory (and no LibDems or Greens). UKIP is seen locally as a perfectly normal party - people discuss possibly voting for it in the same tone as a London voter might weigh up Tories vs Labour vs LibDems. On the other hand, Nuttall is seen with some derision, even by some people who voted UKIP last time - wavering voters spontaneously told me that he'd stood in 4-5 other places and was just faking interest in Stoke. Contrary to established wisdom about not naming your opponent, the Labour leaflets go on about the alleged defects of Nuttall at considerable length. Other parties aren't mentioned.
The Labour candidate was accepted as genuinely local, but many voters felt they'd seen lots of Labour running the council and representing them in Parliament, and didn't feel enthusiastic about us. So they might have been up for a change, but Nuttall? Hmm. Brexit was generally seen as good but not especially a reason to vote UKIP. Corbyn didn't seem to be figuring as a big factor either way, cited by one voter asa a reason to vote Labour and by two as a reason not to.
Conclusions: Low poll likely. Sheer weight of Labour organisation should edge it in the end. DYOR, of course.
Wales should have won that, but England under Eddie Jones really have something special...the Alex Ferguson-esque find a way to win even when second best team and missing lots of the best players.
Hmm - 2019 stand down. Merkel may be looking for another job around then (whether or not she wins in September this year). The EU desperately needs a respected heavyweight leading one of the institutions, not minnows from Belgium and Luxembourg.
Would that not make the German's very strong position a little too blatant to be healthy?
Anecdote report, take with appropriate caution. Spent the day in Stoke with a team of 10 from Nottingham, part of the roughly 250 Labour canvassers who had come in from all points of the compass - trains, buses, cars, Momentum groups, Scots members, Welsh members, you name it. We were in a fairly central ward where UKIP and indeed the BNP have been strong in the past. I spoke to 100 or so people. We ran into Nuttall, who was out with 3 helpers - we politely wished each other a pleasant day
It seemed a bit of an unpopularity contest there. Voters were friendly and chatty - much more so than in pissed-off wards in some run-down communities that I've canvassed in the past - and actually interested in discussing issues. But one voter summed up the general mood: "I don't want to give Labour a vote of confidence. I don't want that carpetbagger Nuttall. I wouldn't ever vote Tory or LibDem. I'm blowed if I know what I'll do."
Certainly on the evidence of this patch it's a pure Lab-UKIP contest, to the extent that I wonder if the Conservatives will retain their deposit: in 5 hours on the doorstep, I met one single Tory (and no LibDems or Greens). UKIP is seen locally as a perfectly normal party - people discuss possibly voting for it in the same tone as a London voter might weigh up Tories vs Labour vs LibDems. On the other hand, Nuttall is seen with some derision, even by some people who voted UKIP last time - wavering voters spontaneously told me that he'd stood in 4-5 other places and was just faking interest in Stoke. Contrary to established wisdom about not naming your opponent, the Labour leaflets go on about the alleged defects of Nuttall at considerable length. Other parties aren't mentioned.
The Labour candidate was accepted as genuinely local, but many voters felt they'd seen lots of Labour running the council and representing them in Parliament, and didn't feel enthusiastic about us. So they might have been up for a change, but Nuttall? Hmm. Brexit was generally seen as good but not especially a reason to vote UKIP. Corbyn didn't seem to be figuring as a big factor either way, cited by one voter asa a reason to vote Labour and by two as a reason not to.
Conclusions: Low poll likely. Sheer weight of Labour organisation should edge it in the end. DYOR, of course.
Labour will be fine, people have been predicting a shock loss in one of these donkey seats for nigh on two years and it always works out fine.
Evening all, well that was a hugely entertaining afternoon of rugby, accompanied by more than a few hops-based beverages, as they call them over here. Well done Ireland for putting more than an Australian cricket score past Italy for the bonus point.
But England, what a team. Twice in a week they've refused to give up and their injury-prone side has ground out a result. The unbeaten run continues and now we surely must win the title again this year?
Hmm - 2019 stand down. Merkel may be looking for another job around then (whether or not she wins in September this year). The EU desperately needs a respected heavyweight leading one of the institutions, not minnows from Belgium and Luxembourg.
There's been three leaders of the EU from Luxemburg:
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Anecdote report, take with appropriate caution. Spent the day in Stoke with a team of 10 from Nottingham, part of the roughly 250 Labour canvassers who had come in from all points of the compass - trains, buses, cars, Momentum groups, Scots members, Welsh members, you name it. We were in a fairly central ward where UKIP and indeed the BNP have been strong in the past. I spoke to 100 or so people. We ran into Nuttall, who was out with 3 helpers - we politely wished each other a pleasant day
It seemed a bit of an unpopularity contest there. Voters were friendly and chatty - much more so than in pissed-off wards in some run-down communities that I've canvassed in the past - and actually interested in discussing issues. But one voter summed up the general mood: "I don't want to give Labour a vote of confidence. I don't want that carpetbagger Nuttall. I wouldn't ever vote Tory or LibDem. I'm blowed if I know what I'll do."
Certainly on the evidence of this patch it's a pure Lab-UKIP contest, to the extent that I wonder if the Conservatives will retain their deposit: in 5 hours on the doorstep, I met one single Tory (and no LibDems or Greens). UKIP is seen locally as a perfectly normal party - people discuss possibly voting for it in the same tone as a London voter might weigh up Tories vs Labour vs LibDems. On the other hand, Nuttall is seen with some derision, even by some people who voted UKIP last time - wavering voters spontaneously told me that he'd stood in 4-5 other places and was just faking interest in Stoke. Contrary to established wisdom about not naming your opponent, the Labour leaflets go on about the alleged defects of Nuttall at considerable length. Other parties aren't mentioned.
The Labour candidate was accepted as genuinely local, but many voters felt they'd seen lots of Labour running the council and representing them in Parliament, and didn't feel enthusiastic about us. So they might have been up for a change, but Nuttall? Hmm. Brexit was generally seen as good but not especially a reason to vote UKIP. Corbyn didn't seem to be figuring as a big factor either way, cited by one voter asa a reason to vote Labour and by two as a reason not to.
Conclusions: Low poll likely. Sheer weight of Labour organisation should edge it in the end. DYOR, of course.
Great report for the Can't Be Arsed Party. Comes back to the core issue - why should people vote for Labour at the moment? Force of habit and dislike of UKIP seem the only two drivers of their vote. Will it be enough? Probably. Someone has to win the damn thing!
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
Anecdote report, take with appropriate caution. Spent the day in Stoke with a team of 10 from Nottingham, part of the roughly 250 Labour canvassers who had come in from all points of the compass - trains, buses, cars, Momentum groups, Scots members, Welsh members, you name it. We were in a fairly central ward where UKIP and indeed the BNP have been strong in the past. I spoke to 100 or so people. We ran into Nuttall, who was out with 3 helpers - we politely wished each other a pleasant day
It seemed a bit of an unpopularity contest there. Voters were friendly and chatty - much more so than in pissed-off wards in some run-down communities that I've canvassed in the past - and actually interested in discussing issues. But one voter summed up the general mood: "I don't want to give Labour a vote of confidence. I don't want that carpetbagger Nuttall. I wouldn't ever vote Tory or LibDem. I'm blowed if I know what I'll do."
Certainly on the evidence of this patch it's a pure Lab-UKIP contest, to the extent that I wonder if the Conservatives will retain their deposit: in 5 hours on the doorstep, I met one single Tory (and no LibDems or Greens). UKIP is seen locally as a perfectly normal party - people discuss possibly voting for it in the same tone as a London voter might weigh up Tories vs Labour vs LibDems. On the other hand, Nuttall is seen with some derision, even by some people who voted UKIP last time - wavering voters spontaneously told me that he'd stood in 4-5 other places and was just faking interest in Stoke. Contrary to established wisdom about not naming your opponent, the Labour leaflets go on about the alleged defects of Nuttall at considerable length. Other parties aren't mentioned.
The Labour candidate was accepted as genuinely local, but many voters felt they'd seen lots of Labour running the council and representing them in Parliament, and didn't feel enthusiastic about us. So they might have been up for a change, but Nuttall? Hmm. Brexit was generally seen as good but not especially a reason to vote UKIP. Corbyn didn't seem to be figuring as a big factor either way, cited by one voter asa a reason to vote Labour and by two as a reason not to.
Conclusions: Low poll likely. Sheer weight of Labour organisation should edge it in the end. DYOR, of course.
Reading between the lines, Snell's a prize turkey and Labour are in real trouble.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
@CarlottaVance can speak with more authority but from my family connections I know there was a big (relatively speaking) influx of poor Portuguese (especially from Madeira) into the Channel Islands - especially Jersey at that time.
There are now articles/pages in Portuguese in the local Jersey Evening Post for those who didn't really integrate.
That is interesting, Mr M. Unless one had great wodges of cash or had accepted a public sector vacancy (e.g. science teacher), it used to be impossible to get a resident's permit for Jersey. I wonder what changed. Local youngsters moving off island and a labour shortage in the agriculture sector, perhaps.
P.S. I am told that there is now quite a large Romanian community in Portugal.
It's very easy to move there and take a job in for example the hotel industry living in their accommodation. Terraced houses were converted into multiple occupancy rooms for the purpose. You're thinking of a work permit, which also works in a horribly complicated point/job sector system.
You're also, I suspect, thinking of full residency which gives the right to buy. Locally known as Quallies (housing qualifications) they were categoried by letter depending on how you ... ahem ... qualified. By birth is the common one, but born overseas if a parent was serving in the Forces also got you a Category as a random example I know about. And then finally there was a Category for the very rich (J-Cat) of which a certain number were granted per year to the uber wealthy or lucky. One of the first people to get that exemption was John Nettles (Jim Bergerac) who filmed his detective series in the island, put Jersey on the map, and then found he wasn't allowed to buy a house afterwards!
You used to be able to set up a company and have that buy a house and rent it back to you but they stopped that trick. If you rented for 20 years you got a certain Qually and could then buy. I think they've dropped this to about 13 years now as a method of population management.
In Guernsey it's very different as I recall. Houses themselves are categorised as "local" or "anyone" and can be bought as such. So two sides of an equal semi-detached house can have a vastly different value.
I'm sure the Jersey stuff was accurate for 10 years ago, but for more recent info and for all the Guernsey info I'm open to correction.
One in eight (12%) 2015 Labour voters now say that they will vote for the Lib Dems.
Theresa May appears to be successfully attracting UKIP supporters, with one in five (20%) who voted for the party in 2015 now saying they will vote Conservative.
The UK should follow the US and introduce its own ‘travel ban’ on immigrants from Muslim-majority countries
Agree 29%
Disagree 55%
DK 16%
Three quarters of UKIP voters (75%) agree that the UK should introduce its own travel ban on immigrants from Muslim-majority countries. A third (32%) of Conservative voters say the same, half (50%) disagree. A clear majority of Labour voters (69%) do not support a UK travel ban, and only one in five (19%) support it.
Also, I've found the Lib Dem ceiling with their anti-Brexit approach and the pickle Labour find themselves in.
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the public say that the Labour party should not try and block Britain’s exit from the EU. Half of Labour voters are more likely to say the party should not try and block exit from the EU (48%), although a significant minority (39%) disagree.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
I wonder if Andrew Neil likes both Country AND Western?
He definitely loves Drum and Bass. Big fan.
It reminds me of The Fast Show sketch with Roger the nouveau football fan, when he was confused when someone said Dennis Bergkamp plays for Arsenal AND Holland*
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
The unweighted figures for how the respondents voted in 2015 are Con 570, Lab 573. Lib Dem 144, Ukip 270. The weighted figures effectively take shares from all three opposition parties and credit them to the Tories (637, 536, 137, 226.)
In the current VI figures, weighting benefits Con, Green and SNP and penalises Lab, LD, and Ukip - although, as with the 2015 figures, the Lib Dems move much the least.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
In EU terms Scotland's no more a country than Herzegovina is.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
As a country, we voted to LEAVE:
"Should the UNITED KINGDOM remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
In EU terms Scotland's no more a country than Herzegovina is.
Reading between the lines, Snell's a prize turkey and Labour are in real trouble.
I would face a really difficult choice if I lived in Stoke. Do I vote for a party led by a man who hangs out with serial killers and Holocaust deniers, or for a party led by a man who is (a) a candidate and (b) is a serial liar who doesn't even seem to know for sure where he lives?
As Jeremy Corbyn might also arguably fit part (b) of the latter criteria too I suppose it could be argued Nuttall is the lesser of two evils. However, the real value in this by-election would seem to be for turnout to be below 10%.That not being available, UKIP to poll between 30-40% (which would surely make it close) looks like value even at 5/4 with Ladbrokes.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
In EU terms Scotland's no more a country than Herzegovina is.
Or England.
As a country, we voted to LEAVE:
"Should the UNITED KINGDOM remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
It is a very small sub-sample. Doubt Labour are doing quite that dreadfully in Scotland. Yet.
I was about to say that, on the other hand, the 25% Labour share for Southern England looks too generous. But ComRes haven't separated out London, so I guess it's just about plausible.
I was thinking of you earlier TSE because I was watching a documentary on Rome which described Hannibal as a brilliant general and was quite critical of Julius Caesar. (And no, it wasn't written by Morris Dancer.)
Labour appear to be trying to re-enact the Battle of Zama. However, have they deployed their elephants yet? And if not, how much worse can things get for them?
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
In EU terms Scotland's no more a country than Herzegovina is.
Or England.
Despite the rugby result given both England and Wales voted Leave and the mediocre performance of Plaid Cymru compared to the SNP and Sinn Fein, England is unlikely ever to be an independent country even in the event both Scotland and NI left the UK as the UK would still be comprised of England and Wales
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
Isn't that turnout weighting current voters then rebasing then seeing the effect on past voting intention, i.e. they have concluded that past Tories are now more likely to say they will vote?
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
To be fair at one point they were separate and the Turks (I think) combined them for administrative convenience. I think they are still pretty distinct with one being Catholic and one Muslim.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
Not so much a klaxon than as a klu klux klaxon - men in white suits will take you away if you believe it.
I've always wanted to join the KKK, so I can find out which detergent they use that gets their clothes so brilliantly white.
Say what you like about the KKK but the one thing you can't say is that they aren't immaculately dressed.
Mrs M says that she adds a glass of white wine vinegar along with the washing powder when she's doing mine.
i was recently advised by a scientist that I know that it has v little to do with the powder and a lot to do with ultra violet fibres that make some whites look so white, but then the detergent co's wouldn't want us to know that would they ?. I think manganese is involved in the powder but I seem to recall that too much rots the material.
Lichfield Cathedral must be one of the most beautiful buildings in England, set in one of its most unspoiled cities. One of the perks of living in Cannock is that it's only ten miles away.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
No it doesn't.
Yes it does
As I say, it is weighted by past vote (37% v 31%) then the respondents numbers are given, then there is the additional weighting by turnout/likelihood of voting, and the 14% comes out of looking back at past vote after that. It's more complicating than messing up the past weightin to begin with.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
No it doesn't.
Yes it does
As I say, it is weighted by past vote (37% v 31%) then the respondents numbers are given, then there is the additional weighting by turnout/likelihood of voting, and the 14% comes out of looking back at past vote after that. It's more complicating than messing up the past weightin to begin with.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
In EU terms Scotland's no more a country than Herzegovina is.
Or England.
Despite the rugby result given both England and Wales voted Leave and the mediocre performance of Plaid Cymru compared to the SNP and Sinn Fein, England is unlikely ever to be an independent country even in the event both Scotland and NI left the UK as the UK would still be comprised of England and Wales
It would either comprise, or be composed of, England and Wales.
And it wouldn't, it would cease to be the UK and revert to being just E & W.
@ydoethur Haven't been to Lichfield Cathedral for ages. Will make the effort at some point.
Worth doing, certainly. Still one of the very few cathedrals in England that doesn't charge for entry, despite the fact it's not exactly in a rich or populous diocese. I suspect the Heritage Lottery Fund is paying for most of the fabric these days. But there could be worse uses for their money.
A complete debunking of Carlotta's much trumpeted Telegraph fake news the other day. Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
I notice Andra Neil had his arse handed him on a plate this afternoon. Apparently he thinks Bosnia & Herzegovina are two countries.
The unionists seem absolutely desperate for the EU to reject Scotland. In a crowded field it's possibly the nuttiest political position in the UK at the moment.
Yep, constantly and belligerently telling a country that voted to remain in the EU that it's definitely going to be out but the best option is to stick with the country that's forcing it out is...mystifying.
In EU terms Scotland's no more a country than Herzegovina is.
Or England.
Despite the rugby result given both England and Wales voted Leave and the mediocre performance of Plaid Cymru compared to the SNP and Sinn Fein, England is unlikely ever to be an independent country even in the event both Scotland and NI left the UK as the UK would still be comprised of England and Wales
It would either comprise, or be composed of, England and Wales.
And it wouldn't, it would cease to be the UK and revert to being just E & W.
Whatever it would be called and of course Wales was a Principality, England and Wales is still not an independent England
Copeland is in range for the Tories on that poll but Labour should hold Stoke Central on a reduced majority
Comres overstating Labour again
ICM and Yougov are showing the same trend but Comres would have to be seriously wrong for UKIP to win Stoke at least on national swing
National swing versus local circumstances... I expect Ukip to outperform the polls but fall short against Labour in Stoke, which will of course put pressure on Nuttall to explain where they *can* actually win one of these contests.
If Ukip fall well short or, conversely, if they actually do it and Labour are beaten, then certain people on one side or the other are going to have some serious explaining to do.
@ydoethur Had a brief look round Chester Cathedral at the end of November, by brief I mean I had only enough time to poke my head round the door. Chester appears to have a bird of prey rescue centre in the grounds.
Copeland is in range for the Tories on that poll but Labour should hold Stoke Central on a reduced majority
Comres overstating Labour again
ICM and Yougov are showing the same trend but Comres would have to be seriously wrong for UKIP to win Stoke at least on national swing
National swing versus local circumstances... I expect Ukip to outperform the polls but fall short against Labour in Stoke, which will of course put pressure on Nuttall to explain where they *can* actually win one of these contests.
If Ukip fall well short or, conversely, if they actually do it and Labour are beaten, then certain people on one side or the other are going to have some serious explaining to do.
UKIP at least have the excuse any defeat reflects the polls and their failure to make much traction nationally after the EU referendum, if Labour lose they would be underperforming even their poor poll ratings which would be very concerning for them
Not so much a klaxon than as a klu klux klaxon - men in white suits will take you away if you believe it.
I've always wanted to join the KKK, so I can find out which detergent they use that gets their clothes so brilliantly white.
Say what you like about the KKK but the one thing you can't say is that they aren't immaculately dressed.
Mrs M says that she adds a glass of white wine vinegar along with the washing powder when she's doing mine.
How many KKK suits do you have ? ....
Rather like dinner jackets - experience teaches us that it's preferable to have two. That way one is being cleaned whilst the other one is constantly available for meetings.
After all, you never know when an impromptu meeting might be called in the middle of some unsuspecting person's front lawn.
Is this a proper VI comes poll? I thought due to weighting issues they weren't doing them for the foreseeable future and/ or we shouldn't read anything into ones that contain voting intentions.
This is their first foray back into voting intention polling.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
With horrendous weighting adjustments turning a 3% Conservative lead into a 15% lead
Is that because the unweighted figures show that the sample shows the Tories only won the last general election by 2-3%?
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Only partly for that reason .
Comres post weighting figures have the Conservatives winning the last GE by 14% over Labour !!!!!!!!!
No it doesn't.
Yes it does
TheWhiteRabbit is correct, once you start adjusting the sample for current turnout the subsamples shouldn't look like the previous election. You can see in both this poll and many others that Labour 2015 voters state a lower likelihood to vote than Conservative 2015 voters. So you would expect that if you weight a sample based on current likihood to vote it will skew any past vote subsample away from Labour.
Indeed that ties in with evidence from other polling that a significant fraction of the current Labour VI is made up of previously non-Labour voters.
Comments
"Now everyone is saying in relation to Trump and Brexit: 'Now is Europe's big chance. Now is the time to close ranks and march together,'" Juncker said in the radio interview which will be aired on Sunday.
"I wish it will be like this, but will it happen? I have some doubt. Because the Brits will manage without big effort to divide the remaining 27 member states."
Sure, that may just really be a warning shot across the bows of the 27 rather than what he really thinks, but you don't fire warning shots without cause.
The thinking is the problem isn't too much EU / globalization, it is too little of it. One of the EU bureaucrats actually said on the BBC2 documentary that the time now is for a "proper EU".
I said during the EU ref, the vote wasn't as being sold i.e. status quo vs exit, it was ever closer union vs exit.
I would doubt that the electorate positively vote for more than one or max two of the winning side's manifesto promises in any given election.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/830471970684813312
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/830476525380239361
Independent Scotland would be fast-tracked into EU says top Brussels official
Jacqueline Minor says Scotland would be "starting from a point different from other applicant countries" because it had already incorporated European laws.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-fast-tracked-9798523
The British working class was deemed to have failed the guardianistas and fatcats long before last June.
More British people have a favourable opinion of Donald Trump (14%) than Tim Farron (11%), although President Trump’s negative scores are considerably worse (68% unfavourable v 26%)."
http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/independent-sunday-mirror-political-poll-february-2017/
Looks as if Farron has a voter problem.
There are now articles/pages in Portuguese in the local Jersey Evening Post for those who didn't really integrate.
David Herdson was probably right in his previous piece - they're throwing resources at selected local council by-elections in the hope of creating a narrative of success based on the intensive targetting of tiny numbers of voters at insignificant, low turnout by-elections that few people care about. The intention of this - paired with the fundamentalist Anti-Ukip positioning on the EU - is to try to get themselves back in the game by garnering more media attention.
It's a nice try, and it may be helping a little - the ComRes voter churn figures are similar to other recent surveys, in that the 2015 Lib Dem vote is quite soft but overall they're gaining sufficient 2015 Labour voters to cover all of their losses and add some extra strength on top of that - but they've still got a very long way to go.
https://twitter.com/Kenny__Stewart/status/830480344814071808
Great game of rugby.
P.S. I am told that there is now quite a large Romanian community in Portugal.
It seemed a bit of an unpopularity contest there. Voters were friendly and chatty - much more so than in pissed-off wards in some run-down communities that I've canvassed in the past - and actually interested in discussing issues. But one voter summed up the general mood: "I don't want to give Labour a vote of confidence. I don't want that carpetbagger Nuttall. I wouldn't ever vote Tory or LibDem. I'm blowed if I know what I'll do."
Certainly on the evidence of this patch it's a pure Lab-UKIP contest, to the extent that I wonder if the Conservatives will retain their deposit: in 5 hours on the doorstep, I met one single Tory (and no LibDems or Greens). UKIP is seen locally as a perfectly normal party - people discuss possibly voting for it in the same tone as a London voter might weigh up Tories vs Labour vs LibDems. On the other hand, Nuttall is seen with some derision, even by some people who voted UKIP last time - wavering voters spontaneously told me that he'd stood in 4-5 other places and was just faking interest in Stoke. Contrary to established wisdom about not naming your opponent, the Labour leaflets go on about the alleged defects of Nuttall at considerable length. Other parties aren't mentioned.
The Labour candidate was accepted as genuinely local, but many voters felt they'd seen lots of Labour running the council and representing them in Parliament, and didn't feel enthusiastic about us. So they might have been up for a change, but Nuttall? Hmm. Brexit was generally seen as good but not especially a reason to vote UKIP. Corbyn didn't seem to be figuring as a big factor either way, cited by one voter asa a reason to vote Labour and by two as a reason not to.
Conclusions: Low poll likely. Sheer weight of Labour organisation should edge it in the end. DYOR, of course.
But England, what a team. Twice in a week they've refused to give up and their injury-prone side has ground out a result. The unbeaten run continues and now we surely must win the title again this year?
Pre weighting
Con 35
Lab 32
LD 10
UKIP 13
Others 10
After weighting
Con 41
Lab 26
LD 11
UKIP 11
Others 11
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Commission
The first was a French patsy, the second resigned in a corruption scandal and the third is Juncker.
It is a proper, kosher VI poll.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_tspk1ifFI
You're also, I suspect, thinking of full residency which gives the right to buy. Locally known as Quallies (housing qualifications) they were categoried by letter depending on how you ... ahem ... qualified. By birth is the common one, but born overseas if a parent was serving in the Forces also got you a Category as a random example I know about. And then finally there was a Category for the very rich (J-Cat) of which a certain number were granted per year to the uber wealthy or lucky. One of the first people to get that exemption was John Nettles (Jim Bergerac) who filmed his detective series in the island, put Jersey on the map, and then found he wasn't allowed to buy a house afterwards!
You used to be able to set up a company and have that buy a house and rent it back to you but they stopped that trick. If you rented for 20 years you got a certain Qually and could then buy. I think they've dropped this to about 13 years now as a method of population management.
In Guernsey it's very different as I recall. Houses themselves are categorised as "local" or "anyone" and can be bought as such. So two sides of an equal semi-detached house can have a vastly different value.
I'm sure the Jersey stuff was accurate for 10 years ago, but for more recent info and for all the Guernsey info I'm open to correction.
From this ComRes
One in eight (12%) 2015 Labour voters now say that they will vote for the Lib Dems.
Theresa May appears to be successfully attracting UKIP supporters, with one in five (20%) who voted for the party in 2015 now saying they will vote Conservative.
The UK should follow the US and introduce its own ‘travel ban’ on immigrants from Muslim-majority countries
Agree 29%
Disagree 55%
DK 16%
Three quarters of UKIP voters (75%) agree that the UK should introduce its own travel ban on immigrants from Muslim-majority countries. A third (32%) of Conservative voters say the same, half (50%) disagree. A clear majority of Labour voters (69%) do not support a UK travel ban, and only one in five (19%) support it.
Also, I've found the Lib Dem ceiling with their anti-Brexit approach and the pickle Labour find themselves in.
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the public say that the Labour party should not try and block Britain’s exit from the EU. Half of Labour voters are more likely to say the party should not try and block exit from the EU (48%), although a significant minority (39%) disagree.
I'm on my phone, so can't properly zoom at the tables.
I know it is a problem ICM have had in the past, where often their unweighted sample shows Labour won the last general election.
Labour on 10% in Scotland.
*The Netherlands.
In the current VI figures, weighting benefits Con, Green and SNP and penalises Lab, LD, and Ukip - although, as with the 2015 figures, the Lib Dems move much the least.
"Should the UNITED KINGDOM remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
As Jeremy Corbyn might also arguably fit part (b) of the latter criteria too I suppose it could be argued Nuttall is the lesser of two evils. However, the real value in this by-election would seem to be for turnout to be below 10%.That not being available, UKIP to poll between 30-40% (which would surely make it close) looks like value even at 5/4 with Ladbrokes.
Say what you like about the KKK but the one thing you can't say is that they aren't immaculately dressed.
"Should the UNITED KINGDOM remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
I was about to say that, on the other hand, the 25% Labour share for Southern England looks too generous. But ComRes haven't separated out London, so I guess it's just about plausible.
Labour appear to be trying to re-enact the Battle of Zama. However, have they deployed their elephants yet? And if not, how much worse can things get for them?
https://twitter.com/donaeldunready/status/830495598537240578
And it wouldn't, it would cease to be the UK and revert to being just E & W.
If Ukip fall well short or, conversely, if they actually do it and Labour are beaten, then certain people on one side or the other are going to have some serious explaining to do.
After all, you never know when an impromptu meeting might be called in the middle of some unsuspecting person's front lawn.
Indeed that ties in with evidence from other polling that a significant fraction of the current Labour VI is made up of previously non-Labour voters.