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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory governments age well in the memory. Labour governments turn sour.

No recent Prime Minister was popular as they left office. Each of the last five had net satisfaction scores – the proportion satisfied minus the proportion dissatisfied – below minus 20 points in their final month, according to MORI’s satisfaction data.

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Morris_Dancer

My decision not to back an Ireland win by 30+ points is beginning to look a bit silly.

HYUFD

Certainly true of recent Labour and Tory governments, though the Attlee Labour government is still remembered rather well in most surveys and the Eden and Heath governments rather badly

BannedInParis

I like this analysis, not particularly because of the result, but because these things are time dependent and very few of the articles on here look at the time series

(especially when, for example, you have things like ....

PM satisfaction - https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorjanuary2017-170119111241/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-january-2017-8-638.jpg?cb=1485171745

Oppo satisfaction - https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorjanuary2017-170119111241/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-january-2017-9-638.jpg?cb=1485171745

etc

etc

etc)

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

My decision not to back an Ireland win by 30+ points is beginning to look a bit silly.

Yes, the Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the Battle of Cannae.

BannedInParis

HYUFD said:

Certainly true of recent Labour and Tory governments, though the Attlee Labour government is still remembered rather well in most surveys and the Eden and Heath governments rather badly

If the numbers exist, they'd certainly add to the story.

FrancisUrquhart

Perhaps people on reflection think that Thatcher made a lot of unpopular decisions at the time that 20 years down the line seemed to have worked out well for the country e.g. much that the bankers get bashed the city creates enormous tax returns, outside some isolated cases we now have few issues with nationwide strikes / unions holding the whole country to ransom etc etc etc. Even with Brexit, the flexible labour laws we have here are showing that UK is still much more attractive than say France.

Where as Tony sounded like he was doing the right thing at the time, the NHS and schools did need investment, but in reality we ended up with massive immigration, Iraq war that is still causing huge worldwide issues today, money pissed up the wall left, right and centre with little to show for it (remember all the new hospitals and schools weren't paid for, there are still massive mortgages on hospitals and schools as the money spent wasn't on the infrastructure), etc etc etc.

CarlottaVance

The Daughter of Time...

ThomasNashe

FrancisUrquhart said:

Perhaps people on reflection think that Thatcher made a lot of unpopular decisions at the time that 20 years down the line seemed to have worked out well for the country e.g. much that the bankers get bashed the city creates enormous tax returns, outside some isolated cases we now have few issues with nationwide strikes / unions holding the whole country to ransom etc etc etc, where as Tony sounded like he was doing the right thing at the time, but in reality we ended up with massive immigration, Iraq war that is still causing huge worldwide issues today, money pissed up the wall left, right and centre with little to show for it (remember all the new hospitals and schools weren't paid for, there are still massive mortgages on hospitals and schools as the money spent wasn't on the infrastructure), etc etc etc.

With him, it all comes down to one word: Iraq

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, just on PFI: this ought to be mentioned rather more when it comes to things like Health and Education spending. The money might be off the books, but it still has to be paid, for decades.

OldKingCole

Blair’s record will always have the ugly stain that is Iraq on it, as Cameron’s will have the referendum. Likewise Thatcher’s will have the Falklands War. Major has Black Wednesday and his epic defeat, although he behaved with considerable dignity in the circumstances.

ThomasNashe

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, just on PFI: this ought to be mentioned rather more when it comes to things like Health and Education spending. The money might be off the books, but it still has to be paid, for decades.

Not so different to the student loans f*** up, the consequences of which will be with us for decades to come. Thanks you, David Willetts.

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, just on PFI: this ought to be mentioned rather more when it comes to things like Health and Education spending. The money might be off the books, but it still has to be paid, for decades.

Yes PFI has gone off the radar. The thing is PFI itself isn't a terrible idea...IF it is done right and it been transparent on the books.

Instead Labour especially signed up to PFI contracts that were so one sided that they basically signed up for a mortgage where you have to accept to a substandard build, which you aren't allowed to change in anyway and if a lightbulb goes you have to pay somebody, who got the contract from somebody, who got the contract from somebody to come and change it (with you lumbered for all these admin fees).

Nobody in their right minds would agree to that for their own home.

TheScreamingEagles

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

BannedInParis

OldKingCole said:

Blair’s record will always have the ugly stain that is Iraq on it, as Cameron’s will have the referendum. Likewise Thatcher’s will have the Falklands War. Major has Black Wednesday and his epic defeat, although he behaved with considerable dignity in the circumstances.

So why do some stains seem to matter more than others?

Morris_Dancer

Cheers to Mr. Barasi for his article (he does sound rather like a Godfather character...).

Morris_Dancer

Six Nations: maybe they should make it a two tier contest, and demote Italy.

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Six Nations: maybe they should make it a two tier contest, and demote Italy.

In recent years Italy have got a lot more competitive. The problem is they lack any strength in depth. A few injuries or retirements and they are very short of players that can compete at that level.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, yeah, they've beaten every team but us at least once. But no wins since 2015. It's a bit rubbish.

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, yeah, they've beaten every team but us at least once. But no wins since 2015. It's a bit rubbish.

It is a tricky one. Sure you could in theory have a second division and have Italy, Georgia, Russia...but Italy are too good for those kind of teams. The thinking was enough years playing your Englands and Frances will spread the game and increase the quality. A couple of years ago that theory was looking like it was working out.

Remember even last year, 1st half vs England it was neck and neck. It was injury to Italy's best player (if I remember correctly) and a bit of lack of fitness that allowed England to pull away in the end.

stodge

Afternoon all

Wish I cared about the rugby but having played it at school I find it tedious beyond belief and the acres of press coverage ridiculous.

Rant over (well, that one).

I don't accept the premise at all - right now, there are many more Conservative voters than Labour ones. One day that won't be the case. In addition, by 2020, Margaret Thatcher will be as far removed from current voters as Heath and Wilson are from us.

Perhaps it will be May who will be derided though apparently one of our number (and I'll smoke whatever he's on) thinks May is Elizabeth I and a new Golden Age dawns.

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

FrancisUrquhart

Are we all ready for the Trump whinge-athon, I mean the BAFTAs, tomorrow night?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, it's like Pinky and the Brain.

"What are we going to do tonight, Brain?"

"The same thing we do every night, Pinky. Try to put up with endless Trump media coverage."

OldKingCole

BannedInParis said:

OldKingCole said:

Blair’s record will always have the ugly stain that is Iraq on it, as Cameron’s will have the referendum. Likewise Thatcher’s will have the Falklands War. Major has Black Wednesday and his epic defeat, although he behaved with considerable dignity in the circumstances.

So why do some stains seem to matter more than others?

Yes; who remembers Eden apart from the PR disaster that was Suez. Oh, and encouraging John Prescott to get interested in politics.
PFI is something that will come back to haunt us, but to some extent that’s Brown’s fault. We’ve already seen the consequences of Thatchers Two Nations, although that was surely an unintended consequence.

surbiton

What utter bullshit ! We should have had an AV thread instead.

dr_spyn

Thatcher and Falklands, triggered off some big unintended changes in South America for the better.

Restharrow

OldKingCole said:

BannedInParis said:

OldKingCole said:

Blair’s record will always have the ugly stain that is Iraq on it, as Cameron’s will have the referendum. Likewise Thatcher’s will have the Falklands War. Major has Black Wednesday and his epic defeat, although he behaved with considerable dignity in the circumstances.

So why do some stains seem to matter more than others?

Yes; who remembers Eden apart from the PR disaster that was Suez. Oh, and encouraging John Prescott to get interested in politics.
PFI is something that will come back to haunt us, but to some extent that’s Brown’s fault. We’ve already seen the consequences of Thatchers Two Nations, although that was surely an unintended consequence.

Not many people regard the Falklands as an ugly stain on Thatcher's record.

Corbyn and his friends, possibly.

CarlottaVance

dr_spyn said:

Thatcher and Falklands, triggered off some big unintended changes in South America for the better.

Thatcher, mother of South American democracy.....

justin124

The reality is that many traditional Labour voters see the Blair/Brown Governments - at least until late 2008 - as de facto Tory Governments which were well to the right of the pre-Thatcher Tory Govts since World War 2 of 1951 -1964 and 1970 - 1974. Personally I have always despised Blair far more than Thatcher. A survey asking people about their opinions of the Attlee and Wilson Governments would be likely to produce very different results.

dr_spyn

Juncker not standing for second term.

https://twitter.com/DiePresse_Pol/status/830436246816116736

PlatoSaid

There's an amusing twitter spat between Piers Morgan, JK Rowling and Godfrey Elfwick right now

OldKingCole

Restharrow said:

OldKingCole said:

BannedInParis said:

OldKingCole said:

Blair’s record will always have the ugly stain that is Iraq on it, as Cameron’s will have the referendum. Likewise Thatcher’s will have the Falklands War. Major has Black Wednesday and his epic defeat, although he behaved with considerable dignity in the circumstances.

So why do some stains seem to matter more than others?

Yes; who remembers Eden apart from the PR disaster that was Suez. Oh, and encouraging John Prescott to get interested in politics.
PFI is something that will come back to haunt us, but to some extent that’s Brown’s fault. We’ve already seen the consequences of Thatchers Two Nations, although that was surely an unintended consequence.

Not many people regard the Falklands as an ugly stain on Thatcher's record.

Corbyn and his friends, possibly.

No, badly worded. Apologies. She deserves a lot of credit for that. I for one expected it to end badly and it didn’t. Maybe I’ll be that wrong about Brexit!!!!

AlsoIndigo

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Seriously ?

/vomit

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

dr_spyn said:

Thatcher and Falklands, triggered off some big unintended changes in South America for the better.

Thatcher, mother of South American democracy.....

The *itch is dead!

surbiton

Morris_Dancer said:

Six Nations: maybe they should make it a two tier contest, and demote Italy.

I rather have them than Georgia.

dr_spyn

CarlottaVance said:

dr_spyn said:

Thatcher and Falklands, triggered off some big unintended changes in South America for the better.

Thatcher, mother of South American democracy.....

Put the Argentine Generals back in the barracks since 1983, bear in mind 6 coups 1930 - 76.

OldKingCole

surbiton said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Six Nations: maybe they should make it a two tier contest, and demote Italy.

I rather have them than Georgia.

To be fair, a year or so ago you might have classed Scotland below Italy. Now look at them!

justin124

Stodge said:

'I don't accept the premise at all - right now, there are many more Conservative voters than Labour ones. One day that won't be the case. In addition, by 2020, Margaret Thatcher will be as far removed from current voters as Heath and Wilson are from us.'


Not quite true - though I share the sentiment behind your point. By 2020 Thatcher will be 30 years in the past whilst Wilson & Heath have already left office more than 40 years ago!

williamglenn

dr_spyn said:

Juncker not standing for second term.

Time for another political heavyweight in the job.

Charles

Morris_Dancer said:

My decision not to back an Ireland win by 30+ points is beginning to look a bit silly.

Answered you on prior thread

AlsoIndigo

stodge said:

I don't accept the premise at all - right now, there are many more Conservative voters than Labour ones. One day that won't be the case. In addition, by 2020, Margaret Thatcher will be as far removed from current voters as Heath and Wilson are from us.

To some extent who people vote for is beside the point though. Surely what matters is what policies end up being followed. At one time a lot of people voted Labour, but its was Blair following what many on the left consider to be Conservative policies (relaxed about getting stinking rich etc). Similar a smaller but significant number voted for Cameron, who followed what many on the right consider to be Lib Dem policies (vastly increased minimum tax thresholds etc). The question must surely be what sort of policies are the common ground of voters prepared to lend their vote to, which in times of plenty might well be social democracy and generosity when they feel the country has money to spare, but in time when the voters feel threatened by falling income, they will be receptive to a more conservative agenda - whoever appears to be offering it and looks vaguely competent.

The problem recently for Labour is that they have been so lacking in perceived competence that no one is prepared to give their policy platform a hearing.

Jonathan

What a load of old cock.

Governments don't age, but parties go in and out of fashion. Take this 15 years ago or 15 years hence and you'll get a different result.

Restharrow

OldKingCole said:

Restharrow said:

OldKingCole said:

BannedInParis said:

OldKingCole said:

Blair’s record will always have the ugly stain that is Iraq on it, as Cameron’s will have the referendum. Likewise Thatcher’s will have the Falklands War. Major has Black Wednesday and his epic defeat, although he behaved with considerable dignity in the circumstances.

So why do some stains seem to matter more than others?

Yes; who remembers Eden apart from the PR disaster that was Suez. Oh, and encouraging John Prescott to get interested in politics.
PFI is something that will come back to haunt us, but to some extent that’s Brown’s fault. We’ve already seen the consequences of Thatchers Two Nations, although that was surely an unintended consequence.

Not many people regard the Falklands as an ugly stain on Thatcher's record.

Corbyn and his friends, possibly.

No, badly worded. Apologies. She deserves a lot of credit for that. I for one expected it to end badly and it didn’t. Maybe I’ll be that wrong about Brexit!!!!

We all feared it would end badly. She took a huge gamble and got away with it. Unlike Eden, who took a smaller risk but failed.

Stark_Dawning

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

I think 'no Iraq' is messing with alternative history a bit, unless you're assuming Ken Clarke as PM.

Fishing

This survey is likely to be biased because the country is in a fairly Conservative mood at the moment. On the other hand, the country is in a Conserative mood at least in part because Labour made such a mess the last time they were in power. So I think the feedback is likely to work both ways.

Nations do not escape from their past, and to know something about where people stood on the reforms of the 1980s is to know a surprising amount about their opinions today. (The same with Americans and Vietnam).

stodge

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

The reason we haven't been Conservative is that from 1990-97, the Conservative Party entered into a period of self-indulgent self-harm leading to 1997 and even then it took them until 2003 to realise what they had done.

I presume by "Tory" you mean Margaret Thatcher and equally competent successors - the Margaret Thatcher who signed up to the Single European Act which instigated the notion of Freedom of Movement.

This is also the same Conservative Party that was even more enthusiastic supporters of Iraq then Blair and you.

I suspect if the Conservatives had somehow remained in power things wouldn't be that different - well, it wouldn't have happened because eventually the Conservatives would have suffered a 1906-style defeat to a Lab-Lib electoral pact whose first act would have been to redraw the constituency boundaries and introduce PR to prevent another Conservative majority.

BannedInParis

Jonathan said:

What a load of old cock.

Governments don't age, but parties go in and out of fashion. Take this 15 years ago or 15 years hence and you'll get a different result.

Well, surely you can check this and show us that it is, indeed, so.

Jonathan

Leaving the partisan aspect aside. It's quite interesting to look at defeated manifestos and think what might have been.

We'd all have ID cards now if Major had won in 97.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Charles, I agree with that specific point, my concern is that freedom of the press is very much on the agenda right now and I wouldn't want leaks to lead to that freedom being permanently curtailed.

Jonathan

BannedInParis said:

Jonathan said:

What a load of old cock.

Governments don't age, but parties go in and out of fashion. Take this 15 years ago or 15 years hence and you'll get a different result.

Well, surely you can check this and show us that it is, indeed, so.

Will take 15 years, but sure, see you in 2032.

In 2001 the association with st Maggie was used effectively to defeat William Hague. You would have thought it was a welcome thing, but it wasn't.

AndyJS

Who would have thought John Major's government would end up being more highly rated than Tony Blair's?

OldKingCole

stodge said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

The reason we haven't been Conservative is that from 1990-97, the Conservative Party entered into a period of self-indulgent self-harm leading to 1997 and even then it took them until 2003 to realise what they had done.

I presume by "Tory" you mean Margaret Thatcher and equally competent successors - the Margaret Thatcher who signed up to the Single European Act which instigated the notion of Freedom of Movement.

This is also the same Conservative Party that was even more enthusiastic supporters of Iraq then Blair and you.

I suspect if the Conservatives had somehow remained in power things wouldn't be that different - well, it wouldn't have happened because eventually the Conservatives would have suffered a 1906-style defeat to a Lab-Lib electoral pact whose first act would have been to redraw the constituency boundaries and introduce PR to prevent another Conservative majority.

‘Like' button pressed!

justin124

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

If the last Labour Govt was as bad as you claim - and I never voted for it! - why was it re-elected with a second landslide in 2001 and a good majority in 2005?. Things did not go tits up until the world wide financial crisis of 2007/08 which few saw coming - certainly not Cameron & Osborne. Many economists are far more critical of Osborne's stewardship of the economy than they are of Brown & Darling.

Jonathan

AndyJS said:

Who would have thought John Major's government would end up being more highly rated than Tony Blair's?

Is this the end?

AndyJS

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.

DecrepitJohnL

ThomasNashe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, just on PFI: this ought to be mentioned rather more when it comes to things like Health and Education spending. The money might be off the books, but it still has to be paid, for decades.

Not so different to the student loans f*** up, the consequences of which will be with us for decades to come. Thanks you, David Willetts.

George Osborne rather than Willetts, perhaps? The reason for the student loans debacle was the Chancellor's insistence that there could not be a graduate tax. The irony is that an income-contingent repayable loans system might actually be a good idea in other areas (not that I've given it a great deal of thought but it could work for, say, government support of industries or agriculture through cyclical turndowns or acts of god).

On PFI, I've often posted here that this is why Gordon Brown should be excoriated and not some alternative history fantasy about the Bank of England somehow preventing the global financial crisis if it weren't for those pesky kids at the FSA.

williamglenn

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.

If he hadn't ramped up immigration so much between 1997 and 2004 then those statistics wouldn't have had anything like the impact they ended up having.

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

Juncker not standing for second term.

https://twitter.com/DiePresse_Pol/status/830436246816116736

To spend more time with his family drinking.

OldKingCole

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.

If he hadn't ramped up immigration so much between 1997 and 2004 then those statistics wouldn't have had anything like the impact they ended up having.

The mistake was agreeing to let Eastern Europe into the EU on the same terms as previous joiners. As someone pointed out upthread, FoM was agreed to by Thatcher.

rottenborough

Reading through coverage of Trump's latest nonsense, I suddenly wondered:

Is there anyone left in UK now who believes replacing our constitutional monarchy with an elected president would be a good idea?

Morris_Dancer

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

RobD

Good afternoon PB.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, good afternoon.

Italy got rather murdered.

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot fewer Osties that Westies.

Ireland 60+ points now.

Edited.... poor English.

Sean_F

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Pass the sick bag.

isam

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Pass the sick bag.

That's a wind up I think

OldKingCole

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Pass the sick bag.

Difficult to do irony in print, to be fair.

MonikerDiCanio

Hopefully there'll never be another Labour PM. Shitbirds to a man.

Alanbrooke

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Pass the sick bag.

lol

dissolve the electorate, they are not worthy

FrancisUrquhart

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.

Ireland 60+ points now.

To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK. I am going to guess the nice climate and continuing very close knit families probably reduces the amount of people who think moving to rainy England is a great move.

One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.

nunu

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all ready for the Trump whinge-athon, I mean the BAFTAs, tomorrow night?

I'm ready for the PB posters who say nobody cares about what they think......and then comment on them anyway.

FrancisUrquhart

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all ready for the Trump whinge-athon, I mean the BAFTAs, tomorrow night?

I'm ready for the PB posters who say nobody cares about what they think......and then comment on them anyway.

Failing Hollywood Actors...Sad...I remember when Hollywood had the best actors, made the best films...now vvvvvhinna is raping us, demanding we put their actors and products in the films.

OldKingCole

FrancisUrquhart said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.

Ireland 60+ points now.

To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK.

One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.

Hmm. There were/are quite a few Portuguese working on the land in East Anglia. Around 2000 a couple of CABx had to find advisors who spoke the language because of the way they were treated.
Of course, there aren’t as many of them as there are East Europeans.

Just finished a novel about Ireland in the crash where the (Irish) ‘heroine’ noted at one point that on a Dublin bus there was no-one speaking a language she recognised.

another_richard

Re the respective merits of Italy and Georgia

Isn't the Georgian team composed of Georgians while the Italian team is rather dependent upon residency and grandparent qualified players ?

FrancisUrquhart

OldKingCole said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.

Ireland 60+ points now.

To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK.

One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.

Hmm. There were/are quite a few Portuguese working on the land in East Anglia. Around 2000 a couple of CABx had to find advisors who spoke the language because of the way they were treated.
Of course, there aren’t as many of them as there are East Europeans

I didn't say none, also Poland has 4 times as many people. But I think (might be wrong) but the movement of people to / from Portugal has been fairly modest and more a drip drip drip.

According to wikipedia from the census, it has gone from ~40k to ~100k in 15 years. Have to be a bit careful as well because a lot of Brazilians and Indians have got Portuguese passports specifically to come to the UK.

GIN1138

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Maybe it's not too late for the petty, racist, jealous and xenophobic great unwashed to come to their senses, get down on their hands and knees and beg Lord Cameron to return and do them the amazing act of kindness that would be governing for them?

dr_spyn

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot fewer Osties that Westies.

Ireland 60+ points now.

Edited.... poor English.

Too early to judge, they haven't kicked off yet.

FrancisUrquhart

FrancisUrquhart said:

OldKingCole said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, freedom of movement between comparable nations is a very different beast to freedom of movement between countries with wildly differing living standards and wages, though.

Indeed. That’s what I said, more or less. I always thought treating the former Communist States as immediate equal partners was a mistake. Even West Germany had problems coping with the former DDR and a) they all spoke the same language and b) there were a lot less Osties that Westies.

Ireland 60+ points now.

To be generous, I think part of the flawed thinking was that the example of Portugal say, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but freedom of movement hasn't led a mass exodus to places like the UK.

One big difference when Poland et al joined, everybody except UK and Ireland, effectively put up the barriers for several years. So if you were a skilled Pole thinking I fancy heading abroad to earn some decent money, your choice was one of two countries.

Hmm. There were/are quite a few Portuguese working on the land in East Anglia. Around 2000 a couple of CABx had to find advisors who spoke the language because of the way they were treated.
Of course, there aren’t as many of them as there are East Europeans

I didn't say none, also Poland has 4 times as many people. But I think (might be wrong) but the movement of people to / from Portugal has been fairly modest and more a drip drip drip.

According to wikipedia from the census, it has gone from ~40k to ~100k in 15 years. Have to be a bit careful as well because a lot of Brazilians and Indians have got Portuguese passports specifically to come to the UK.

So in the first 15 years of membership (1986 -> 2001) basically bugger all people came from Portugal to the UK. More recently has seen more people coming, but nowhere in the same numbers as Poland, Romania etc (I believe already there are more Romanians registered here than Portuguese despite Romanians only technically had access to free movement for handful of years).

But I think my initial point is valid, Spain and Portugal joined in 1986 and especially Portugal was very poor and hardly any Portuguese rushed to come here.

FrancisUrquhart

Wales wing George North will not play against England and has been replaced by Alex Cuthbert just an hour before kick-off.

TheWhiteRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wales wing George North will not play against England and has been replaced by Alex Cuthbert just an hour before kick-off.

Presumably just to ruin my fantasy chances.

I seem not to have set a captain (!!) so maybe that's already blown. Too used to the PL one where they carry over.

nunu

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

This is the same Dave who gave gongs to the leaders of the REMAIN campaign? What a twat he was.

Essexit

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

This is the same Dave who gave gongs to the leaders of the REMAIN campaign? What a twat he was.

We shouldn't begrudge them their consolation prize too much. The Companion of Honour for Osborne was particularly disgraceful though.

Afternoon all.

felix

dr_spyn said:

Juncker not standing for second term.

https://twitter.com/DiePresse_Pol/status/830436246816116736

Maybe sitting? It is late afternoon.

foxinsoxuk

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.

His two mistakes were the Iraq war and letting Gordon go bonkers with the chequebook.

The million Poles have settled well, with far less disruption than previous waves of migrants. A credit to both their new and old countries.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?

MaxPB

dr_spyn said:

Juncker not standing for second term.

https://twitter.com/DiePresse_Pol/status/830436246816116736

His head starts spinning too much when he stands?

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?

He ballsed up the constitution too...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, alright. But apart from foreign policy, the economy and the constitutional arrangements of the country, Blair did ok, yes?

[It's like an inverted "What did the Romans ever do for us?"...].

Essexit

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?

He ballsed up the constitution too...

Messed up devolution and ducked the chance to change the voting system.

The only thing better than AV is AV+.

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?

He ballsed up the constitution too...

Since Blair's constitutional proposition was clearly stated in the Labour '97 manifesto which was voted for in a landslide, presumably the British people ballsed up the constution.

BigRich

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, alright. But apart from foreign policy, the economy and the constitutional arrangements of the country, Blair did ok, yes?

[It's like an inverted "What did the Romans ever do for us?"...].

What about civil liberty's i.e. detention with out trial for 90 days!

Morris_Dancer

Anyway, I must be off.

FrancisUrquhart

England really miss Big Billy...they would have had that over the line 2 mins earlier. Nathan Hughes is an infinity earlier guy to put down despite his size.

williamglenn

OldKingCole said:

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.

If he hadn't ramped up immigration so much between 1997 and 2004 then those statistics wouldn't have had anything like the impact they ended up having.

The mistake was agreeing to let Eastern Europe into the EU on the same terms as previous joiners. As someone pointed out upthread, FoM was agreed to by Thatcher.

In retrospect I think the transition period should have been mandatory. It's easy to forget that at the time the UK government thought it was getting one over on the conservative Germans and French by allowing full freedom of movement from day one.

RobD

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?

He ballsed up the constitution too...

Since Blair's constitutional proposition was clearly stated in the Labour '97 manifesto which was voted for in a landslide, presumably the British people ballsed up the constution.

Yes, I am sure that was the primary reason for the landslide.

Ishmael_Z

BigRich said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, alright. But apart from foreign policy, the economy and the constitutional arrangements of the country, Blair did ok, yes?

[It's like an inverted "What did the Romans ever do for us?"...].

What about civil liberty's i.e. detention with out trial for 90 days!

No, that was a masterstroke; without it we would still know that David Davis was a twat, but the full majestic scale of his twattosity would have remained a secret.

Malmesbury

dr_spyn said:

CarlottaVance said:

dr_spyn said:

Thatcher and Falklands, triggered off some big unintended changes in South America for the better.

Thatcher, mother of South American democracy.....

Put the Argentine Generals back in the barracks since 1983, bear in mind 6 coups 1930 - 76.

The Foreign Office, at the time of the Falklands war, warned that if the Generals lost the war too badly the regime would fall. Which would be bad for the stability of South America....

To be fair, the rest of South America was down to the "Drop your barstewards and we will drop ours" deal between Bush I and Gorbachev. This was quiet and informal, but it was what led to 1989 being the year of revolutions.

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, so, apart from foreign policy and the economy, Blair did alright?

He ballsed up the constitution too...

Since Blair's constitutional proposition was clearly stated in the Labour '97 manifesto which was voted for in a landslide, presumably the British people ballsed up the constution.

Yes, I am sure that was the primary reason for the landslide.

You're not suggestiing that voters were too stupid to know for what they were voting? Wash your mouth out with liberals' tears.

Malmesbury

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a very interesting analysis by Leo, as an aside, I'm doing a similar thread in a few weeks time, and I reckon Cameron will be remembered fondly too in the future.

He was the only PM to leave office, sans general election, to be consistently leading in the polls.

Dave was just too good for this world. His folly was assuming that the people were as clever and sensible as he was. I don't believe he imagined for one second that the British public - his British public - would vote for Brexit on the basis of xenophobic pettiness, jealousy and resentment. It's a cautionary tale. In the end we simply didn't deserve Dave, and we let him down most awfully.

Pass the sick bag.

lol

dissolve the electorate, they are not worthy

After the uprising of the 23rd of June
The Editor of the Guardian
Had leaflets distributed in Hoxton
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

With apologies to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Lösung

Malmesbury

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go down as a competent and reasonable leader, who did the stupidest thing in the history of cutting-off-your-own-goolies, thanks to a fatal arrogance and laziness. He's Sui generis.

As for the rest, but of course. Since 1979 all Tory governments have at least been effective, some have been brilliant - e.g, Thatcher in mid season form. All the Labour governments have been shitshows. Dismal. And their mistakes loom ever larger. Imagine where the UK would be now if we'd been Tory from 1987 til now.

Exactly. No mass immigration. No absurd PC. No need for Brexit. No Iraq. We'd be an immeasurably richer and happier country.

Blair's biggest mistake was expecting 13,000 Eastern Europeans to come to the UK when he brought in free movement in 2004. It turned out to be more than a million.

His two mistakes were the Iraq war and letting Gordon go bonkers with the chequebook.

The million Poles have settled well, with far less disruption than previous waves of migrants. A credit to both their new and old countries.

His three mistakes....