Lib Dems should not be ignored in either Stoke or Copeland.
Stoke possibly, but I will be surprised if they manage to get higher than third in Copeland. They've also cooled off on nuclear policy recently (since leaving government) so they have the same basic weakness as Labour without 82 years of tribal loyalty to fall back on.
Whatever the result, it is the most shocking indictment imaginable of Corbyn that either seat is even considered vulnerable.
On topic. I think the scale of the Lib Dem revival is due to their appeal to the heavily politicised section of the remain vote, which is boosting them immensely. It turns out, even in council by-elections, unlike either side's more unenthusiastic voters - who might well have seen last June as a means to express their views then get on with life. It doesn't take an awful lot of those people to win a council byelection.
Farron's no Charlie Kennedy but he's lucky in his opponents. With Labour a complete mess people who are really sceptical that May will make Brexit work have no where really to go, but are desperate to do something, anything to express their displeasure. Even something as futile as electing a local councillor who shares their views on Brexit. May is more popular than Cameron with the more traditionalist parts of the electorate but disliked among the more liberal part of the electorate Dave was capable of winning over. The former have never voted Lib Dem, the latter are a key part of any of the party's route to building an electoral coalition.
The Lib Dems' continuity Remain stance may be implausible and unpractical but in the absence of Labour putting forward say, a plan for a soft Brexit keeping single market access it also holds appeal to those who accept the referendum result but think there's a real danger that in prioritising cutting immigration above the economy, May may be cutting the chords to the parachute that could bring us down safely after jumping out of the plane on 23 June. That holds more appeal than the Lib Dems unabashed pro-European stance usually had. In the absence of a proper opposition articulating an alternative plan, what do you do? Vote for the party who at least know where they stand in principle.
Ironic, given why Corbyn's cheerleaders wanted him as Labour leader. His useful idiots have turned the Lib Dems from unprincipled pariahs into comparatively appealing principled prospects next to their hero.
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.
Or leftwingers that are hard of reading
I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order
That is a different section of the order. Three is a separate provision specific to Syria. Apologize or slink off into the grass
No.
A moratorium on Syrians while they check their screening process is not a Muslim ban, its not even a Syrian ban, its a Syrians wait until we have reviewed our screening process. For anyone from the other seven countries named, its please wait 90 days. No one has been banned. Since say Saudi isn't even mentioned is could not be a Muslim anything, ban or otherwise. Logic please.
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.
Or leftwingers that are hard of reading
I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order
That is a different section of the order. Three is a separate provision specific to Syria. Apologize or slink off into the grass
No.
A moratorium on Syrians while they check their screening process is not a Muslim ban, its not even a Syrian ban, its a Syrians wait until we have reviewed our screening process. For anyone from the other seven countries named, its please wait 90 days. No one has been banned. Since say Saudi isn't even mentioned is could not be a Muslim anything, ban or otherwise. Logic please.
Please show where I mentioned Muslims.
I said it indefinitely banned Syrians from coming as refugees. Can you show me where a defined date for the end of the Syrian ban is given? No? Then it's indefinite isn't it.
Stop being deliberately obtuse, you're convincing nobody
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
Against Fillon , le Pen will be able to tack left and the campaign will be about globalisation and the eu far more than the threat of Islam. Given Fillon has tried to present himself as tough on Islam etc already he can't attack her from there, so he's left fighting a defence of globalisation etc. So I think it's likely that Mélenchon and ps voters will back her over him (obviously not the parisien metro elite types of course!)
Yes, Fillon is now a better opponent for Le Pen than Macron. The hard left may back Le Pen over Fillon but not Le Pen over Macron, she keeps her own first round vote in either scenario
All good points. I am however basing my own prediction of a Le Pen win mainly on the 'domino theory' of nationalist populism which some academic put forward the other day (can't find the link I'm afraid).
The populist surge is going from country to country. I don't think after Trump we can rely on polls too much and given, that once again, we have a scenario where the populist's opponents seem to be crap and/or corrupt elitists for one reason or another. Well...
It was close in both the UK and US though and Hillary won the popular vote
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Yes, pretty much. Good post.
Personally I’m becoming much more worried about groups like Euratom, and the European Medicines Agency Leaving the EU seems to involve leaving those as well, and, in the case of the EMA may have consequences for the NHS.
That's just been a power accretion by the EU bureaucrats. It's perfectly logical to have multi-lateral cooperation in things like medical regulation. I'm sure there will be a way to opt back in
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Yes, pretty much. Good post.
Personally I’m becoming much more worried about groups like Euratom, and the European Medicines Agency Leaving the EU seems to involve leaving those as well, and, in the case of the EMA may have consequences for the NHS.
That's just been a power accretion by the EU bureaucrats. It's perfectly logical to have multi-lateral cooperation in things like medical regulation. I'm sure there will be a way to opt back in
A few weeks ago you were telling us the EU had no role in it anyway.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
snip (obviously not the parisien metro elite types of course!)
Yes, Fillon is now a better opponent for Le Pen than Macron. The hard left may back Le Pen over Fillon but not Le Pen over Macron, she keeps her own first round vote in either scenario
All good points. I am however basing my own prediction of a Le Pen win mainly on the 'domino theory' of nationalist populism which some academic put forward the other day (can't find the link I'm afraid).
The populist surge is going from country to country. I don't think after Trump we can rely on polls too much and given, that once again, we have a scenario where the populist's opponents seem to be crap and/or corrupt elitists for one reason or another. Well...
What you also see is that supporters of UKIP, Trump, Le Pen etc are looked down on and insulted
One lefty commentator on here recently expressed the view that those responding on polls wanting to curb immigration were obviously of lower intelligence (like leavers and Trumpers).
You think some of those supporters might keep quiet in public, like shy tories maybe?
Learning the language should be important, but we Brits can be guilty of that too.
I remember chatting in a cafe in France with some expats.
Wife and I ordered in French, this other couple commented on it and said they hadn't bothered.
Been living there over 5 years and couldn't order a coffee ............
I discovered my school girl French whilst in Morocco - and made feeble attempts to learn Arabic. Not knowing a word of English in the UK or US isn't something to be glossed over - it encourages ghettos and no local integration.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
I don't think Brexit is an issue in local elections, unless there are special factors like a large number of unpopular migrants. The Libdems do have good candidates and put in an effort. Ask any conservative candidate who they would rather have as an opponent - UKIP or the Libdems - and the honest answer is UKIP. Local by-elections are what Libdems do and excell at. The leafleting, the canvassing and the GOTV effort are formidable especially as the turn-out is usually well under 50%.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. Add in people with a vested interest in European trade, which is a big number. That's a pretty powerful group. It doesn't have to be an absolute majority, though it wouldn't surprise me if it was already close to that.
But we don't rejoin via a mirror image of the Brexit campaign. First we elect a government committed to improved ties with the EU, and joining some of the less political european projects. The EMA is an obvious one. Then we negotiate closer trade agreements.
Before long the argument isn't should we join or not, it's what is the point of being outside? There won't be another referendum. It will just be part of the winning party's manifesto. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
The Lib Dems don't do referendum anymore,they don't get the results they want.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Yes, pretty much. Good post.
Personally I’m becoming much more worried about groups like Euratom, and the European Medicines Agency Leaving the EU seems to involve leaving those as well, and, in the case of the EMA may have consequences for the NHS.
That's just been a power accretion by the EU bureaucrats. It's perfectly logical to have multi-lateral cooperation in things like medical regulation. I'm sure there will be a way to opt back in
A few weeks ago you were telling us the EU had no role in it anyway.
They didn't when it was originally set up. (As EMEA not EMA). It missed the change because it is irrelevant to my business activities.
I don't have any sources at the top end of the finance or legal industry, but those further down say their firms remain bullish, though too many of them (to my ears) seeming to think there be other people's weakness to exploit.
Lib Dems should not be ignored in either Stoke or Copeland.
They did worse in both seats than they did nationally at the last general election and both voted heavily Leave, if the LDs win either Farron is heading for Downing Street!
Been living there over 5 years and couldn't order a coffee ............
I have been living here almost a decade, and I can order coffee in a few places around the country, but not many, having 175 regional languages makes life a little interesting. For example the language spoke on the island I live on is spoken by less than 400k people.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
Another intriguing parallel with the Reformation.
History is essentially cyclical. Nothing really changes.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
Another intriguing parallel with the Reformation.
Jumping out of plane without a parachute , SeanT yells 500 feet from the ground - " See Told You No Problem"
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Yes, pretty much. Good post.
Personally I’m becoming much more worried about groups like Euratom, and the European Medicines Agency Leaving the EU seems to involve leaving those as well, and, in the case of the EMA may have consequences for the NHS.
That's just been a power accretion by the EU bureaucrats. It's perfectly logical to have multi-lateral cooperation in things like medical regulation. I'm sure there will be a way to opt back in
A few weeks ago you were telling us the EU had no role in it anyway.
They didn't when it was originally set up. (As EMEA not EMA). It missed the change because it is irrelevant to my business activities.
On topic. I think the scale of the Lib Dem revival is due to their appeal to the heavily politicised section of the remain vote, which is boosting them immensely. It turns out, even in council by-elections, unlike either side's more unenthusiastic voters - who might well have seen last June as a means to express their views then get on with life. It doesn't take an awful lot of those people to win a council byelection.
Farron's no Charlie Kennedy but he's lucky in his opponents. With Labour a complete mess people who are really sceptical that May will make Brexit work have no where really to go, but are desperate to do something, anything to express their displeasure. Even something as futile as electing a local councillor who shares their views on Brexit. May is more popular than Cameron with the more traditionalist parts of the electorate but disliked among the more liberal part of the electorate Dave was capable of winning over. The former have never voted Lib Dem, the latter are a key part of any of the party's route to building an electoral coalition.
The Lib Dems' continuity Remain stance may be implausible and unpractical but in the absence of Labour putting forward say, a plan for a soft Brexit keeping single market access it also holds appeal to those who accept the referendum result but think there's a real danger that in prioritising cutting immigration above the economy, May may be cutting the chords to the parachute that could bring us down safely after jumping out of the plane on 23 June. That holds more appeal than the Lib Dems unabashed pro-European stance usually had. In the absence of a proper opposition articulating an alternative plan, what do you do? Vote for the party who at least know where they stand in principle.
Ironic, given why Corbyn's cheerleaders wanted him as Labour leader. His useful idiots have turned the Lib Dems from unprincipled pariahs into comparatively appealing principled prospects next to their hero.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
Another intriguing parallel with the Reformation.
Jumping out of plane without a parachute , SeanT yells 500 feet from the ground - " See Told You No Problem"
Using wildly extravagant metaphor in the absence of a cogent marshalling of facts has always been a Remainer trait. Odd, considering they are the side with all the 'experts'.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
Another intriguing parallel with the Reformation.
Jumping out of plane without a parachute , SeanT yells 500 feet from the ground - " See Told You No Problem"
Running down the track doing the 100m hurdles pursued by a bunch of remainers screaming at you that you are going to break your leg just before every jump.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. Add in people with a vested interest in European trade, which is a big number. That's a pretty powerful group. It doesn't have to be an absolute majority, though it wouldn't surprise me if it was already close to that.
But we don't rejoin via a mirror image of the Brexit campaign. First we elect a government committed to improved ties with the EU, and joining some of the less political european projects. The EMA is an obvious one. Then we negotiate closer trade agreements.
Before long the argument isn't should we join or not, it's what is the point of being outside? There won't be another referendum. It will just be part of the winning party's manifesto. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
On topic. I think the scale of the Lib Dem revival is due to their appeal to the heavily politicised section of the remain vote, which is boosting them immensely. It turns out, even in council by-elections, unlike either side's more unenthusiastic voters - who might well have seen last June as a means to express their views then get on with life. It doesn't take an awful lot of those people to win a council byelection.
Farron's no Charlie Kennedy but he's lucky in his opponents. With Labour a complete mess people who are really sceptical that May will make Brexit work have no where really to go, but are desperate to do something, anything to express their displeasure. Even something as futile as electing a local councillor who shares their views on Brexit. May is more popular than Cameron with the more traditionalist parts of the electorate but disliked among the more liberal part of the electorate Dave was capable of winning over. The former have never voted Lib Dem, the latter are a key part of any of the party's route to building an electoral coalition.
The Lib Dems' continuity Remain stance may be implausible and unpractical but in the absence of Labour putting forward say, a plan for a soft Brexit keeping single market access it also holds appeal to those who accept the referendum result but think there's a real danger that in prioritising cutting immigration above the economy, May may be cutting the chords to the parachute that could bring us down safely after jumping out of the plane on 23 June. That holds more appeal than the Lib Dems unabashed pro-European stance usually had. In the absence of a proper opposition articulating an alternative plan, what do you do? Vote for the party who at least know where they stand in principle.
Ironic, given why Corbyn's cheerleaders wanted him as Labour leader. His useful idiots have turned the Lib Dems from unprincipled pariahs into comparatively appealing principled prospects next to their hero.
I do miss Charles Kennedy.
So do I at least he had the sense not to want the Lib Dems to formally join Cameron's coalition .
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
Another intriguing parallel with the Reformation.
I've said it before and I'll say it again May is the modern Elizabeth I and we are bound for a new Golden Age.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
But it is also a question of how important an issue people think it is. Europe wasn't one of people's big concerns prior to the referendum. I don't think it will stay a big issue for long.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. Add in people with a vested interest in European trade, which is a big number. That's a pretty powerful group. It doesn't have to be an absolute majority, though it wouldn't surprise me if it was already close to that.
But we don't rejoin via a mirror image of the Brexit campaign. First we elect a government committed to improved ties with the EU, and joining some of the less political european projects. The EMA is an obvious one. Then we negotiate closer trade agreements.
Before long the argument isn't should we join or not, it's what is the point of being outside? There won't be another referendum. It will just be part of the winning party's manifesto. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
It won't be able to sign up to full membership without signing up to both the euro and Schengen. It seems impossible that either of the latter two would be signed up for without it being at least on a public path to full membership.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
But it is also a question of how important an issue people think it is. Europe wasn't one of people's big concerns prior to the referendum. I don't think it will stay a big issue for long.
Yes and No. Immigration has been in the top three for years, and its indelibly linked in the mind of the public with the EU. The public currently believe May about controlling our borders, and its still at the top of the list.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
But it is also a question of how important an issue people think it is. Europe wasn't one of people's big concerns prior to the referendum. I don't think it will stay a big issue for long.
As ever, it's only a big issue as long as it's in the news.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
Where is your evidence that she could get 35-40% of the vote? If she gets to the final which is by no means certain I'd be surprised if she gets to 30%.
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
With 70% of the public opposed to joining the Euro, and it therefore being electoral suicide to even look like you are considering it, this must be some new definition of "quite possible" I hadn't previously encountered.
But it is also a question of how important an issue people think it is. Europe wasn't one of people's big concerns prior to the referendum. I don't think it will stay a big issue for long.
As ever, it's only a big issue as long as it's in the news.
And when it can be related to everyday life.
Ask people in an opinion poll what they care about and Europe will be low. Ask them whether they like it when it is related to wage suppression, the currency in your pocket and access to public services and you'll get a much more revealing picture. This is something that many political activists don't understand.
Mr. Divvie, May's lack of understanding/contempt for civil liberties (the Snooper's Charter happening whilst everyone was scaring at squirrels) is one of my major concerns about her.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
It won't be able to sign up to full membership without signing up to both the euro and Schengen. It seems impossible that either of the latter two would be signed up for without it being at least on a public path to full membership.
And where is that written in stone? The EU might well allow us to create some kind of associate status where we participate a bit in a few areas of EU business. From their point of view it would be a small step in the right direction. And from the UK side who could argue against mutually beneficial co-operation? Once we start drifting back in I can't see any line that would stop us ultimately rejoining. The "will of the people" argument is the only thing holding us back. It's a powerful factor, but it won't last forever. Especially once we have actually left. Having done so, the democratic decision has been respected.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
It won't be able to sign up to full membership without signing up to both the euro and Schengen. It seems impossible that either of the latter two would be signed up for without it being at least on a public path to full membership.
And where is that written in stone? The EU might well allow us to create some kind of associate status where we participate a bit in a few areas of EU business. From their point of view it would be a small step in the right direction. And from the UK side who could argue against mutually beneficial co-operation? Once we start drifting back in I can't see any line that would stop us ultimately rejoining. The "will of the people" argument is the only thing holding us back. It's a powerful factor, but it won't last forever. Especially once we have actually left. Having done so, the democratic decision has been respected.
New members have to sign up to Schengen and the euro, it's in the treaties. Even if that weren't the case, do you really think that the EU would let us back in if there were any chance at all we would be the same old obstructive, half-in/half-out, nonbeliever in the Project?
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
Where is your evidence that she could get 35-40% of the vote? If she gets to the final which is by no means certain I'd be surprised if she gets to 30%.
Another keeper. Such certainty in the face of so many wrong calls about populism over the previous couple of years is hilarious...
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
It seems impossible that either of the latter two would be signed up for without it being at least on a public path to full membership.
And where is that written in stone? The EU might well allow us to create some kind of associate status where we participate a bit in a few areas of EU business. From their point of view it would be a small step in the right direction. And from the UK side who could argue against mutually beneficial co-operation? Once we start drifting back in I can't see any line that would stop us ultimately rejoining.
New members have to sign up to Schengen and the euro, it's in the treaties. Even if that weren't the case, do you really think that the EU would let us back in if there were any chance at all we would be the same old obstructive, half-in/half-out, nonbeliever in the Project?
We have form for opting out of treaties. But the route back in I just outlined is in any case a way of getting around that requirement.
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.
Plato is reigning PB POTY. She's mainstream and centrist in her politics.. Only a socially confused misfit like yourself would find her views in any way extreme.
Plus, given the referendum to join and the referendum to leave there would have to be a vote.
Agree an associate membership is a theoretical possibility. Not sure it'll happen, though.
We didn't have a referendum to join the first time. It was after the event to help Harold Wilson sort out divisions in his party. The vote to leave was held for similar reasons. In both cases the people calling the election were expecting to get the result they wanted. Harold's success might have influenced Dave's decision. Dave's failure won't be ignored in the future.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
My point was it won't do it all in one go. But we live in a parliamentary democracy. We don't need a referendum to do any of those things. Joining the Euro is the interesting one. I couldn't conceive of any way that would ever happen before the referendum. It now seems quite possible.
It won't be able to sign up to full membership without signing up to both the euro and Schengen. It seems impossible that either of the latter two would be signed up for without it being at least on a public path to full membership.
And where is that written in stone? The EU might well allow us to create some kind of associate status where we participate a bit in a few areas of EU business. From their point of view it would be a small step in the right direction. And from the UK side who could argue against mutually beneficial co-operation? Once we start drifting back in I can't see any line that would stop us ultimately rejoining. The "will of the people" argument is the only thing holding us back. It's a powerful factor, but it won't last forever. Especially once we have actually left. Having done so, the democratic decision has been respected.
There already is an associate status, the EEA or parts of the EEA in the case of Switzerland, however that is still not the EU
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
Where is your evidence that she could get 35-40% of the vote? If she gets to the final which is by no means certain I'd be surprised if she gets to 30%.
Another keeper. Such certainty in the face of so many wrong calls about populism over the previous couple of years is hilarious...
France was occupied by the Nazis that may still influence their politics.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
Where is your evidence that she could get 35-40% of the vote? If she gets to the final which is by no means certain I'd be surprised if she gets to 30%.
Another keeper. Such certainty in the face of so many wrong calls about populism over the previous couple of years is hilarious...
Don't confuse your wish list with analysis or you and the rest of the Grimsby/Hartlepool posse are only going to be disappointed.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
Yes, it probably is correct right now. In many places, people leaving are not being replaced.
LOL
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
Yes, belief in the economic collapse of the UK, post-Brexit, increasingly resembles belief in transubstantiation. Nothing is visibly happening but mere belief that it is happening means it really is happening.
Another intriguing parallel with the Reformation.
I was hoping for a soft Reformation.
As someone who is testing the job market at the moment - there are a large number of roles open in banking and banking related jobs (IT etc) in London. Pay is going up, if anything.
Plus, given the referendum to join and the referendum to leave there would have to be a vote.
Agree an associate membership is a theoretical possibility. Not sure it'll happen, though.
We didn't have a referendum to join the first time. It was after the event to help Harold Wilson sort out divisions in his party. The vote to leave was held for similar reasons. In both cases the people calling the election were expecting to get the result they wanted. Harold's success might have influenced Dave's decision. Dave's failure won't be ignored in the future.
The British constitution is what happens. It's well established now that significant constitutional change requires a referendum.
Is there a single person here who knows the difference between national polling figures and local council election results? I ask because I'm seriously beginning to wonder.
Just back from visiting Mr Stodge Senior who didn't fancy a trip out in the cold but I managed to get him to his local and a table by the fire for lunch which cheered him up no end.
Sometimes it's just the simple things that make you happy - like a decent lunch or a by-election win.
To pick up on a couple of points from earlier - the LDs had no choice but to fight Witney and Richmond with everything. It was possible to excuse a weak performance in a strongly Labour constituency where the party had no history of activity but to pass on places like Witney and Richmond would have been inexcusable for Tim who, let's not forget, may not be the favourite of the non-LDs but is the favourite of the LD members and activists.
Richmond was Tim's Romsey - the seat he had to win to make the grade as Party leader. Sarah Olney's win was Tim's win as well and has given the whole Party a huge boost for which we must think both Theresa May and Zac Goldsmith.
The other point was the usual old nonsense that LD members aren't really liberals but Labour supporters who are anti-Corbyn. Perhaps I should argue that most Conservatives are united more by their fear/hatred of Labour and the left than any common belief or understanding of what conservatism is or should be.
I don't care why or how another LD member came to the party - we all have our political journeys - but as long as they support and work for the party that's fine by me. I'm encouraged by the rush of newer younger members and the party is being changed by them. We had become, to use the expression, pale, male and stale and the party that is evolving out of the 2015 wreckage and the 2016 Referendum is going to look very different from the quasi-Social Democratic morass that I knew and loved (or at least with which I cohabited).
That would stop me voting for him there and then. Send that to parliament?
Seriously? I swear like a s*** frequently, usually for f****** emphasis, although I rarely drop the c*** word (and never in front of women) because it's usually f****** unwarranted. The "s" word, whether s*** or its North Eastern s**** variant, gets used to, as occasionally does the oedipal gerund ("m*****f*****"). T*** can be amusing too, though the misogynistic terms such as b**** or its variant b**-a*** feel harsh in the mouth, like a kid pretending to be a gangsta, and get little used.
It is contextual. In work it is "oh, bother" and "flippety-flop" in order to not cause offence to the people I work with, but it is situational. Amongst friends I can sometimes achieve arias, and I swear to goodness I once came out with "you coney s****hawk dips*** m*****f*****" (I was listening to the intro to "Do The Right Thing" and it fit beautifully).
Is there a single person here who knows the difference between national polling figures and local council election results? I ask because I'm seriously beginning to wonder.
Yes the difference is that polls are a theoretical response to a hypothetical question. Byelections, whether council or parliamentary are real votes in real elections.
Plus, given the referendum to join and the referendum to leave there would have to be a vote.
Agree an associate membership is a theoretical possibility. Not sure it'll happen, though.
We didn't have a referendum to join the first time. It was after the event to help Harold Wilson sort out divisions in his party. The vote to leave was held for similar reasons. In both cases the people calling the election were expecting to get the result they wanted. Harold's success might have influenced Dave's decision. Dave's failure won't be ignored in the future.
The British constitution is what happens. It's well established now that significant constitutional change requires a referendum.
Agreed, but a set of small steps over a number of years isn't a significant constitutional change.
As someone once said "the only thing worse in life than being talked about is not being talked about".
Thank you for the piece, David, as always and plenty with which I disagree though I realise that's the point.
I'm puzzled as to why a Conservative activist is making such a song and dance over a couple of LD by-election gains. It's not as though the Conservative party can't afford to lose a few hundred Councillors as they have so many to spare.
As I've said before, the attrition of Councillors damaged the LDs more than the sudden loss of nearly 50 MPs. Years of losses have reduced three decades of gains and while we're not back to the 100 or so Liberal Councillors in 1977, we were as much back to our local bedrock as the Conservatives were in the mid 90s.
The Conservative local recovery began on GE day 1997 and continued throughout the Blair/Brown years while the Party languished in the futility of Opposition. Even under IDS, the Party made local gains.
The post-2015 LD recovery is curious - the surge in members has not only been in areas of pre-existing strength but in new areas where new groups of activists are joining together to take on moribund Labour and Conservative party machines who have enjoyed unchallenged dominance for decades. The truth is though the Party has a small army of mobile activists who can achieve transitory successes at local level and at constituency level (Richmond) under special circumstances.
I think the May elections will be interesting - I suspect the Conservative performance will be mixed with gains from UKIP being offset by losses to the LDs to produce a broadly neutral return.
Cheers for the comment and apologies for the delay in replying - I was out delivering in Wakefield (feedback on the doorsteps: Creagh would lose if the election was tomorrow).
As an activist, no, I'm not particularly bothered about a couple of wards here or there, particularly if it's down to tactics tha can't be replicated on a wide scale in a general election. However, as an analyst, I'm intrigued by the disparity between the polls and the election results - and indeed, between some election results and others, with no obvious pattern. Hence asking the question.
Mr. Divvie, May's lack of understanding/contempt for civil liberties (the Snooper's Charter happening whilst everyone was scaring at squirrels) is one of my major concerns about her.
Leaking negotiations papers in the moddle of what is arguably the most important negotiation the country has had in a generation is directly counter to the national interest. The final outcome will rightly be scrutinised by Parliament, and the government judged by the electorate, but they need the freedom to know that their deliberations are secret.
Sadly a culture that it is acceptable to leak all confidential documents has developed in the last 20 years. It is not.
That would stop me voting for him there and then. Send that to parliament?
Seriously? I swear like a s*** frequently, usually for f****** emphasis, although I rarely drop the c*** word (and never in front of women) because it's usually f****** unwarranted. The "s" word, whether s*** or its North Eastern s**** variant, gets used to, as occasionally does the oedipal gerund ("m*****f*****"). T*** can be amusing too, though the misogynistic terms such as b**** or its variant b**-a*** feel harsh in the mouth, like a kid pretending to be a gangsta, and get little used.
It is contextual. In work it is "oh, bother" and "flippety-flop" in order to not cause offence to the people I work with, but it is situational. Amongst friends I can sometimes achieve arias, and I swear to goodness I once came out with "you coney s****hawk dips*** m*****f*****" (I was listening to the intro to "Do The Right Thing" and it fit beautifully).
My record was dropping seven f-bombs into one coherent sentence. I was a mite exercised at the time though. I try not to curse, but there's nothing wrong with a bit of anglo-saxon for emphasis.
Comments
Whatever the result, it is the most shocking indictment imaginable of Corbyn that either seat is even considered vulnerable.
Farron's no Charlie Kennedy but he's lucky in his opponents. With Labour a complete mess people who are really sceptical that May will make Brexit work have no where really to go, but are desperate to do something, anything to express their displeasure. Even something as futile as electing a local councillor who shares their views on Brexit. May is more popular than Cameron with the more traditionalist parts of the electorate but disliked among the more liberal part of the electorate Dave was capable of winning over. The former have never voted Lib Dem, the latter are a key part of any of the party's route to building an electoral coalition.
The Lib Dems' continuity Remain stance may be implausible and unpractical but in the absence of Labour putting forward say, a plan for a soft Brexit keeping single market access it also holds appeal to those who accept the referendum result but think there's a real danger that in prioritising cutting immigration above the economy, May may be cutting the chords to the parachute that could bring us down safely after jumping out of the plane on 23 June. That holds more appeal than the Lib Dems unabashed pro-European stance usually had. In the absence of a proper opposition articulating an alternative plan, what do you do? Vote for the party who at least know where they stand in principle.
Ironic, given why Corbyn's cheerleaders wanted him as Labour leader. His useful idiots have turned the Lib Dems from unprincipled pariahs into comparatively appealing principled prospects next to their hero.
A moratorium on Syrians while they check their screening process is not a Muslim ban, its not even a Syrian ban, its a Syrians wait until we have reviewed our screening process. For anyone from the other seven countries named, its please wait 90 days. No one has been banned. Since say Saudi isn't even mentioned is could not be a Muslim anything, ban or otherwise. Logic please.
I said it indefinitely banned Syrians from coming as refugees. Can you show me where a defined date for the end of the Syrian ban is given? No? Then it's indefinite isn't it.
Stop being deliberately obtuse, you're convincing nobody
You can't see it happening but the true believers still know its happening.
I remember chatting in a cafe in France with some expats.
Wife and I ordered in French, this other couple commented on it and said they hadn't bothered.
Been living there over 5 years and couldn't order a coffee ............
One lefty commentator on here recently expressed the view that those responding on polls wanting to curb immigration were obviously of lower intelligence (like leavers and Trumpers).
You think some of those supporters might keep quiet in public, like shy tories maybe?
The Libdems do have good candidates and put in an effort. Ask any conservative candidate who they would rather have as an opponent - UKIP or the Libdems - and the honest answer is UKIP. Local by-elections are what Libdems do and excell at. The leafleting, the canvassing and the GOTV effort are formidable especially as the turn-out is usually well under 50%.
"Power accretion" sounds so much more...harmless
Says it all doesn't it
@ThomasEvansGB More colourful language here from Labour candidate Gareth Snell #stokebyelection @CllrBSilvester @busybuk @DavidHadley1973 https://t.co/yv6zGjKo6n
Oh my word, Snell is quite a potty mouth
http://ec.europa.eu/health//sites/health/files/files/eudralex/vol-1/reg_1993_2309/reg_1993_2309_en.pdf
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/councillors
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/830350668032532480
Ask people in an opinion poll what they care about and Europe will be low. Ask them whether they like it when it is related to wage suppression, the currency in your pocket and access to public services and you'll get a much more revealing picture. This is something that many political activists don't understand.
Plus, given the referendum to join and the referendum to leave there would have to be a vote.
Agree an associate membership is a theoretical possibility. Not sure it'll happen, though.
A shame. It'd be nice if someone made McLaren great again.
NEW THREAD
Just back from visiting Mr Stodge Senior who didn't fancy a trip out in the cold but I managed to get him to his local and a table by the fire for lunch which cheered him up no end.
Sometimes it's just the simple things that make you happy - like a decent lunch or a by-election win.
To pick up on a couple of points from earlier - the LDs had no choice but to fight Witney and Richmond with everything. It was possible to excuse a weak performance in a strongly Labour constituency where the party had no history of activity but to pass on places like Witney and Richmond would have been inexcusable for Tim who, let's not forget, may not be the favourite of the non-LDs but is the favourite of the LD members and activists.
Richmond was Tim's Romsey - the seat he had to win to make the grade as Party leader. Sarah Olney's win was Tim's win as well and has given the whole Party a huge boost for which we must think both Theresa May and Zac Goldsmith.
The other point was the usual old nonsense that LD members aren't really liberals but Labour supporters who are anti-Corbyn. Perhaps I should argue that most Conservatives are united more by their fear/hatred of Labour and the left than any common belief or understanding of what conservatism is or should be.
I don't care why or how another LD member came to the party - we all have our political journeys - but as long as they support and work for the party that's fine by me. I'm encouraged by the rush of newer younger members and the party is being changed by them. We had become, to use the expression, pale, male and stale and the party that is evolving out of the 2015 wreckage and the 2016 Referendum is going to look very different from the quasi-Social Democratic morass that I knew and loved (or at least with which I cohabited).
It is contextual. In work it is "oh, bother" and "flippety-flop" in order to not cause offence to the people I work with, but it is situational. Amongst friends I can sometimes achieve arias, and I swear to goodness I once came out with "you coney s****hawk dips*** m*****f*****" (I was listening to the intro to "Do The Right Thing" and it fit beautifully).
:-)
As an activist, no, I'm not particularly bothered about a couple of wards here or there, particularly if it's down to tactics tha can't be replicated on a wide scale in a general election. However, as an analyst, I'm intrigued by the disparity between the polls and the election results - and indeed, between some election results and others, with no obvious pattern. Hence asking the question.
Sadly a culture that it is acceptable to leak all confidential documents has developed in the last 20 years. It is not.