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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

Another week, another excellent set of local election results for the Lib Dems. Two gains from the Conservatives on big swings re-emphasised the extent of party’s success in the last year, following up on the even bigger and more even more unexpected gains in Sunderland and Rotherham.

Read the full story here

foxinsoxuk

first, like the Lib Dems!

Charles

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

TheWhiteRabbit

FPT

The Civil Service has tightened up its pension scheme, but it is is as krkrkrk says still defined benefit.

daodao

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

CarlottaVance

FPT:

John_M said:

Civil service pensions used to be seriously good.

That was part of the 'deal' which had Civil service salaries poorer than Private Sector - then that got torn up under New Labour and Civil Service salaries roared ahead while Civil Service Pensions stayed in place. Then Brown's raid on Pension schemes sank the already weaker Private Sector final salary defined benefit schemes.......its been a right Horlicks....

foxinsoxuk

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

MarqueeMark

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I reckon you can swap those Tory and Labour numbers round in Copeland.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

It's bizarre - it looks like its how he thinks Farrage would dress - voters will spot a fake miles off.....Dr Nuttall......

AlastairMeeks

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

TheKrakenAwakes

Charles said:

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

These are "virtual" phone banks - usually set up via Facebook where volunteers from where-ever can make the calls from their own phones.

AlastairMeeks

Using my rule of thumb that the more hapless a by-election candidate seems to be in the estimation of their opponents, the better they do, Stoke Central seems too close to call.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

NickPalmer

Charles said:

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

Yes, quite strict ones. But phoning is a notorious hard-to-define soft spot in the system, which led the Fiona Jones' disqualification (and although she overturned it on appeal, indirectly set off a train of events leading to her decline and death): it's very hard for an investigation to tell how much phoning is done and even hard for a phone bank honestly to know the exact data if they are calling in several seats. Moreover, a sneaky operation will wrap it up as a general survey rather than asking specifically about the election (even if amazingly the current calls are bearly all to Snoring-by-Sea). But I think a losing candidate in one of the local by-elections who has evidence of people being called specifically about the by-election should lodge a complaint and see if it gets anywhere - if only to put a damper on abuse.

I think there is more willnginess of Labour voters in safe Tory seats to give the LDs tactical support than vice versa at the moment, and that's clearly helping them. But they are still recoivering from the widespread "not a reliable party, wouldn't vote for them" judgment which hit them in 2015.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

Using my rule of thumb that the more hapless a by-election candidate seems to be in the estimation of their opponents, the better they do, Stoke Central seems too close to call.

Surely the Labour candidate there is hapless too!

View_From_Cumbria

A very intelligent analysis and as someone who has witnessed Farron and his local LDs at close hand since he emerged in 1999 I can certainly say this is all his, or more accurately his agent Paul Trollope's, doing.

Essentially they divide the world into ardent LDs, possible LDs and the rest. The rest are ignored except for leaflets comparing the main opposing candidate unfavourably to a child molester. ( I jest only slightly. )

The ardents are rung up well before election day to confirm their sympathies. They are then rung up the day before to remind them. They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice.

When and only when there are no more ardents still to ring up and annoy they work through the possibles.

I do not know what capacity the LDs have to ramp this up on local election days, but I suspect it is greater that the narrow analysis would suggest. Last year Farron himself was in Kirkby Lonsdale all day acting as a runner I imagine he will be there this year.

As far as I can see he used to have supporters and others who thought he was doing a good job but didn't vote for him. The latter are now extremely abusive about him without any prompting ( his Brexit stance). I think they will have no difficulty getting out their core vote in May but Brexiteers now hate him.

As for Copeland - look at the 2009 county elections when Labour completely failed to bring out its vote. I think Labour will lose Remain votes to the LDs and traditional votes to the Cons. However most votes will be lost to staying at home. As a neo-Blairite Jamie Reed was popular with traditional voters and definitely had a personal vote. The present candidate has tried to weaponise the NHS - a Farron tactic. Apart from that there is no reason to vote for her.

Mortimer

"They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice."


Bleeding heck. I'd definitely play along if I received that call.

'Oh no, I will be posting. Call me back in an hour or two to remind me, pls?"

Repeat ad infinitem then at 9pm tell them I've voted Tory as they wanted, right?

Mortimer

MarqueeMark said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I reckon you can swap those Tory and Labour numbers round in Copeland.

Yeh, me too.

When even guardian journos are tweeting bad things about Copeland, you know they've lost the plot.

Nuclear will be the key there. I think we all underestimate the impact it has on Copeland.

Charles

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Charles said:

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

These are "virtual" phone banks - usually set up via Facebook where volunteers from where-ever can make the calls from their own phones.

Presumably minimal cost then. Thanks

foxinsoxuk

View_From_Cumbria said:

A very intelligent analysis and as someone who has witnessed Farron and his local LDs at close hand since he emerged in 1999 I can certainly say this is all his, or more accurately his agent Paul Trollope's, doing.

Essentially they divide the world into ardent LDs, possible LDs and the rest. The rest are ignored except for leaflets comparing the main opposing candidate unfavourably to a child molester. ( I jest only slightly. )

The ardents are rung up well before election day to confirm their sympathies. They are then rung up the day before to remind them. They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice.

When and only when there are no more ardents still to ring up and annoy they work through the possibles.

I do not know what capacity the LDs have to ramp this up on local election days, but I suspect it is greater that the narrow analysis would suggest. Last year Farron himself was in Kirkby Lonsdale all day acting as a runner I imagine he will be there this year.

As far as I can see he used to have supporters and others who thought he was doing a good job but didn't vote for him. The latter are now extremely abusive about him without any prompting ( his Brexit stance). I think they will have no difficulty getting out their core vote in May but Brexiteers now hate him.

As for Copeland - look at the 2009 county elections when Labour completely failed to bring out its vote. I think Labour will lose Remain votes to the LDs and traditional votes to the Cons. However most votes will be lost to staying at home. As a neo-Blairite Jamie Reed was popular with traditional voters and definitely had a personal vote. The present candidate has tried to weaponise the NHS - a Farron tactic. Apart from that there is no reason to vote for her.

@GillTroughton has been campaigning on the NHS her whole life. Snell in Stoke may well be an opportunist, but Gill Troughton is as straight as they come. A good old fashioned Christian Socialist, local councillor who knows the NHS very well. There is no falsity or spin there. A local candidate for local people on local issues.

Jonathan

LD national recovery still limited by recent experience of the coalition where the party didn't match deeds with rhetoric.


Ad-hoc protest at by elections is one thing. Giving the LDs a whiff of power is quite another. The left couldn't support the LDs after they propped up the Tories. Whereas the right simply have no need to.support them.

logical_song

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

That prediction looks good for the LibDems, good for Labour and bad for the Tories and UKIP. I would expect the Tories to take Copeland.

MarqueeMark

foxinsoxuk said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

A very intelligent analysis and as someone who has witnessed Farron and his local LDs at close hand since he emerged in 1999 I can certainly say this is all his, or more accurately his agent Paul Trollope's, doing.

Essentially they divide the world into ardent LDs, possible LDs and the rest. The rest are ignored except for leaflets comparing the main opposing candidate unfavourably to a child molester. ( I jest only slightly. )

The ardents are rung up well before election day to confirm their sympathies. They are then rung up the day before to remind them. They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice.

When and only when there are no more ardents still to ring up and annoy they work through the possibles.

I do not know what capacity the LDs have to ramp this up on local election days, but I suspect it is greater that the narrow analysis would suggest. Last year Farron himself was in Kirkby Lonsdale all day acting as a runner I imagine he will be there this year.

As far as I can see he used to have supporters and others who thought he was doing a good job but didn't vote for him. The latter are now extremely abusive about him without any prompting ( his Brexit stance). I think they will have no difficulty getting out their core vote in May but Brexiteers now hate him.

As for Copeland - look at the 2009 county elections when Labour completely failed to bring out its vote. I think Labour will lose Remain votes to the LDs and traditional votes to the Cons. However most votes will be lost to staying at home. As a neo-Blairite Jamie Reed was popular with traditional voters and definitely had a personal vote. The present candidate has tried to weaponise the NHS - a Farron tactic. Apart from that there is no reason to vote for her.

@GillTroughton has been campaigning on the NHS her whole life. Snell in Stoke may well be an opportunist, but Gill Troughton is as straight as they come. A good old fashioned Christian Socialist, local councillor who knows the NHS very well. There is no falsity or spin there. A local candidate for local people on local issues.

...crushed by a national leader who detests the largest employer in the constituency.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

View_From_Cumbria

I wish Mortimer was on my electoral role ! You wouldn't have got on the ardent list in the first place. They go to great lengths to vet the electorate and that is why their information, on the face of it old still turns up trumps even where they have lost the MP and probably most of their activists.

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

foxinsoxuk said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

A very intelligent analysis and as someone who has witnessed Farron and his local LDs at close hand since he emerged in 1999 I can certainly say this is all his, or more accurately his agent Paul Trollope's, doing.

Essentially they divide the world into ardent LDs, possible LDs and the rest. The rest are ignored except for leaflets comparing the main opposing candidate unfavourably to a child molester. ( I jest only slightly. )

The ardents are rung up well before election day to confirm their sympathies. They are then rung up the day before to remind them. They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice.

When and only when there are no more ardents still to ring up and annoy they work through the possibles.

I do not know what capacity the LDs have to ramp this up on local election days, but I suspect it is greater that the narrow analysis would suggest. Last year Farron himself was in Kirkby Lonsdale all day acting as a runner I imagine he will be there this year.

As far as I can see he used to have supporters and others who thought he was doing a good job but didn't vote for him. The latter are now extremely abusive about him without any prompting ( his Brexit stance). I think they will have no difficulty getting out their core vote in May but Brexiteers now hate him.

As for Copeland - look at the 2009 county elections when Labour completely failed to bring out its vote. I think Labour will lose Remain votes to the LDs and traditional votes to the Cons. However most votes will be lost to staying at home. As a neo-Blairite Jamie Reed was popular with traditional voters and definitely had a personal vote. The present candidate has tried to weaponise the NHS - a Farron tactic. Apart from that there is no reason to vote for her.

@GillTroughton has been campaigning on the NHS her whole life. Snell in Stoke may well be an opportunist, but Gill Troughton is as straight as they come. A good old fashioned Christian Socialist, local councillor who knows the NHS very well. There is no falsity or spin there. A local candidate for local people on local issues.

...crushed by a national leader who detests the largest employer in the constituency.

http://www.copelandlabour.org.uk/nuclear

https://twitter.com/GillTroughton/status/828972894478823425

The other big issue in nuclear is the Tory governments reductions in pension entitlements. Great for motivating the workers.

IanB2

If only winning elections were simply a matter of making a few phone calls.

SquareRoot

TY to David Herdson for doing a thread on the apparent dichotomy I mentioned a few days ago. I must admit phone bank calling had not registered with me as a likely answer. The LD will be too overstretched at a GE to do that and it''l be back to fake news bar chart leaflets

logical_song

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

Yes, quite strict ones. But phoning is a notorious hard-to-define soft spot in the system, which led the Fiona Jones' disqualification (and although she overturned it on appeal, indirectly set off a train of events leading to her decline and death): it's very hard for an investigation to tell how much phoning is done and even hard for a phone bank honestly to know the exact data if they are calling in several seats. Moreover, a sneaky operation will wrap it up as a general survey rather than asking specifically about the election (even if amazingly the current calls are bearly all to Snoring-by-Sea). But I think a losing candidate in one of the local by-elections who has evidence of people being called specifically about the by-election should lodge a complaint and see if it gets anywhere - if only to put a damper on abuse.

I think there is more willnginess of Labour voters in safe Tory seats to give the LDs tactical support than vice versa at the moment, and that's clearly helping them. But they are still recoivering from the widespread "not a reliable party, wouldn't vote for them" judgment which hit them in 2015.

Phone calls are cheap an I would imagine most phone banks would be manned by volunteers, so where else would the cost come from?

IanB2

Charles said:

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

Yes, there are quite tight spending limits. But then of course phone tariffs with free evening calls (which is when phone canvassing is mostly done) are widely available, so the cost is a couple of weeks' share of whatever the fixed costs are. And the staffing costs are all volunteers.

logical_song

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

The difference is that the antipathy to the LibDems has fallen away. There may also be fewer 'don't knows' and more worried and motivated remainers.

Roger

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

IanB2

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

I tend to agree - you can't convert people in a two minute phone conversation, so the explanation for the LibDem successes must be as much political as logistical. Most likely they want a Tory/May government (hence the national polls), certainly in preference to any available alternative, but are using local elections to send a message to keep the Tories on the straight and narrow over Brexit. Hard Brexit was always a minority obsession.

SquareRoot

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

we are leaving Roger. Get used to it.

SouthamObserver

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

Jonathan

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The LDs are as responsible for Brexit as anyone else. Their weakness gave Cameron his majority.

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

IanB2

Charles said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Charles said:

How are they allocating the cost of a national phone bank specifically targeting a small number of constituencies?

(Are there spending limits for council elections?)

These are "virtual" phone banks - usually set up via Facebook where volunteers from where-ever can make the calls from their own phones.

Presumably minimal cost then. Thanks

Yes, the LibDem system allows registered members to log in from anywhere, and make calls on a calls free tariff from home or wherever. The system automatically routes to the targeted election and provides all the information the system has about the relevant voter, including a script to manage the call and record the responses

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

ThomasNashe

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

Roger, I know the reflex PB reaction is to dismiss any prediction coming from your quarter, but I think what you say is basically right. There's a growing vacuum that needs to be filled by a party driven by pragmatism rather than ideology. In the absence of other contenders, the LDs look best placed to fill it.

logical_song

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The LDs are as responsible for Brexit as anyone else. Their weakness gave Cameron his majority.

So maybe the SNP are as responsible for Brexit as UKIP. Their strength enabled Cameron to scare voters into voting Tory by predicting a Lab/SNP government.
Really, people do tie themselves in knots on PB!

Luckyguy1983

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

Get a life?

Jonathan

Labour still, just about, has the USP that if you vote for them and they are strong they can form a govt and get the Tories out.

The LDs have a similar USP.

If you vote for them, and they are strong, they will prop the Tories up.

SquareRoot

THE BBC website seems to be 3 days out of date. MY pc is showing the Leicester Derby match as the main news.. that was on Wed night?

Jonathan

logical_song said:

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The LDs are as responsible for Brexit as anyone else. Their weakness gave Cameron his majority.

So maybe the SNP are as responsible for Brexit as UKIP. Their strength enabled Cameron to scare voters into voting Tory by predicting a Lab/SNP government.
Really, people do tie themselves in knots on PB!

Yup, the Tory victory in the UK was in the SNPs interest.

SouthamObserver

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

SouthamObserver

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

ThomasNashe

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

Who knew that Hillsborough would be such a big issue in Stoke Central?

IanB2

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Seeking to advocate liberal values by joining a socialist party would appear to be a mistake IMHO.

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

I don't think Theresa May is especially right wing, though no doubt she looks it, compared to Corbyn.

At the moment, I'd say Lib Dem success in local elections is mostly reversion to the mean. They have 1,900 seats, compared to 4-5,000 from 1993-2010. It's like the Conservatives regaining local authorities like Tunbridge Wells, Hertsmere, Bromley, and Castle Point, after 1997.

Mortimer

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

The tories are not heading right.

May is the most left wing leader we've had for several decades. Rejoice!

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

Of course Charles firmly supports both Cameron and May, who take largely contradictory positions on most issues.

We should pay off debt by 2020, until we shouldn't. Grammar schools are both an anachronism and the future.

Charles

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Seeking to advocate liberal values by joining a socialist party would appear to be a mistake IMHO.

That's why I've never seen the appeal of the LibDems - for as long as I've been paying attention they've been more control-minded social democrats than Liberals.

I guess I'm stuck for a while longer.

IanB2

Mortimer said:

"They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice."


Bleeding heck. I'd definitely play along if I received that call.

'Oh no, I will be posting. Call me back in an hour or two to remind me, pls?"

Repeat ad infinitem then at 9pm tell them I've voted Tory as they wanted, right?

If you have ever done any canvassing you will know that potential time-wasters stand out a mile. Most people have the opposite concern, that the canvasser will engage them in debate for ages, not realising that the canvasser too is eager to get on to the next call.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, you're conflating paying off debt with ending the deficit.

What are interest payments at now? About £40-50bn?

More than Defence. Or Education. About a third the spending on the NHS.

Mortimer

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

"They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice."


Bleeding heck. I'd definitely play along if I received that call.

'Oh no, I will be posting. Call me back in an hour or two to remind me, pls?"

Repeat ad infinitem then at 9pm tell them I've voted Tory as they wanted, right?

If you have ever done any canvassing you will know that potential time-wasters stand out a mile. Most people have the opposite concern, that the canvasser will engage them in debate for ages, not realising that the canvasser too is eager to get on to the next call.

I've done quite a bit face to face - and seen others strung along, too.

The trick, I've noticed, is to be increasingly interested in what the canvasser is saying, then suggest to that others in the household might be on the fence then call them etc.

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

Of course Charles firmly supports both Cameron and May, who take largely contradictory positions on most issues.

We should pay off debt by 2020, until we shouldn't. Grammar schools are both an anachronism and the future.

Someone woke up grouchy on a Saturday...

IanB2

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Seeking to advocate liberal values by joining a socialist party would appear to be a mistake IMHO.

That's why I've never seen the appeal of the LibDems - for as long as I've been paying attention they've been more control-minded social democrats than Liberals.

I guess I'm stuck for a while longer.

Liberals always dominated the grassroots, but you are right that during its early days the social democrats dominated the national party. My feel of the party is that those days have passed - whatever you think of Clegg his roots were genuinely liberal and Farron even more so. It would take another influx from the Labour right to change things again; a prospect that, like last time, many would view with distinctly mixed feelings.

logical_song

Jonathan said:

logical_song said:

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The LDs are as responsible for Brexit as anyone else. Their weakness gave Cameron his majority.

So maybe the SNP are as responsible for Brexit as UKIP. Their strength enabled Cameron to scare voters into voting Tory by predicting a Lab/SNP government.
Really, people do tie themselves in knots on PB!

Yup, the Tory victory in the UK was in the SNPs interest.

When losing the argument, it is always a good tactic to change the subject.

david_herdson

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

I don't think Theresa May is especially right wing, though no doubt she looks it, compared to Corbyn.

At the moment, I'd say Lib Dem success in local elections is mostly reversion to the mean. They have 1,900 seats, compared to 4-5,000 from 1993-2010. It's like the Conservatives regaining local authorities like Tunbridge Wells, Hertsmere, Bromley, and Castle Point, after 1997.

In some cases, yes, but that doesn't explain the spectacular swings in places like Rotheham or Sunderland where they had little history, or-on the other side - their very mediocre effort last May.

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

John_M said:

Civil service pensions used to be seriously good.

That was part of the 'deal' which had Civil service salaries poorer than Private Sector - then that got torn up under New Labour and Civil Service salaries roared ahead while Civil Service Pensions stayed in place. Then Brown's raid on Pension schemes sank the already weaker Private Sector final salary defined benefit schemes.......its been a right Horlicks....

Surely the main damage to private sector pension schemes occurred during the 1980s, or is that politically inconvenient?

IanB2

Mortimer said:

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

"They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice."


Bleeding heck. I'd definitely play along if I received that call.

'Oh no, I will be posting. Call me back in an hour or two to remind me, pls?"

Repeat ad infinitem then at 9pm tell them I've voted Tory as they wanted, right?

If you have ever done any canvassing you will know that potential time-wasters stand out a mile. Most people have the opposite concern, that the canvasser will engage them in debate for ages, not realising that the canvasser too is eager to get on to the next call.

I've done quite a bit face to face - and seen others strung along, too.

The trick, I've noticed, is to be increasingly interested in what the canvasser is saying, then suggest to that others in the household might be on the fence then call them etc.

The most common canvassing mistake is not finding out about the rest of the household, or putting everyone down the same as whatever the respondent says. So that would actually be quite helpful. I still stand by my observation that, for an experienced canvasser, the reaction from someone intending to waste your time is so different from the usual that it stands out a mile. For a newbie canvasser it only takes one or two like that to learn from your mistake!

SouthamObserver

ThomasNashe said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

Who knew that Hillsborough would be such a big issue in Stoke Central?

Mr Nuttall seems to have problems with telling the truth. I think that's probably the issue.

SouthamObserver

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

The tories are not heading right.

May is the most left wing leader we've had for several decades. Rejoice!

Let's see about that.

Mortimer

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

"They are then rung up every two hours until they have been recorded as having voted or have told the ringer to fuck off at least twice."


Bleeding heck. I'd definitely play along if I received that call.

'Oh no, I will be posting. Call me back in an hour or two to remind me, pls?"

Repeat ad infinitem then at 9pm tell them I've voted Tory as they wanted, right?

If you have ever done any canvassing you will know that potential time-wasters stand out a mile. Most people have the opposite concern, that the canvasser will engage them in debate for ages, not realising that the canvasser too is eager to get on to the next call.

I've done quite a bit face to face - and seen others strung along, too.

The trick, I've noticed, is to be increasingly interested in what the canvasser is saying, then suggest to that others in the household might be on the fence then call them etc.

The most common canvassing mistake is not finding out about the rest of the household, or putting everyone down the same as whatever the respondent says. So that would actually be quite helpful. I still stand by my observation that, for an experienced canvasser, the reaction from someone intending to waste your time is so different from the usual that it stands out a mile. For a newbie canvasser it only takes one or two like that to learn from your mistake!

I've several canvasser's rules of thumb:

- Elderly married couples will generally vote the same way
- Young adults living at home with parents will generally not vote
- Anyone washing their car on a saturday morning will be on the right.

There are obviously exceptions, but they're pretty solid from my experience...

Jonathan

logical_song said:

Jonathan said:

logical_song said:

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The LDs are as responsible for Brexit as anyone else. Their weakness gave Cameron his majority.

So maybe the SNP are as responsible for Brexit as UKIP. Their strength enabled Cameron to scare voters into voting Tory by predicting a Lab/SNP government.
Really, people do tie themselves in knots on PB!

Yup, the Tory victory in the UK was in the SNPs interest.

When losing the argument, it is always a good tactic to change the subject.

Eh?

danielmawbs

Does anybody want to do me a favour, I'm offering £2 @ 199-1 on ukip/lab double one for. (I'm anal and like and like round numbers across as my book).
UKIP for Copeland can be backed on bf @46 or laid @80 lab on stoke are about 1.9 at the moment

chestnut

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, you're conflating paying off debt with ending the deficit.

What are interest payments at now? About £40-50bn?

More than Defence. Or Education. About a third the spending on the NHS.

Debt interest plus payouts in aid and EU contributions are more than the total deficit now.

CarlottaVance

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

John_M said:

Civil service pensions used to be seriously good.

That was part of the 'deal' which had Civil service salaries poorer than Private Sector - then that got torn up under New Labour and Civil Service salaries roared ahead while Civil Service Pensions stayed in place. Then Brown's raid on Pension schemes sank the already weaker Private Sector final salary defined benefit schemes.......its been a right Horlicks....

Surely the main damage to private sector pension schemes occurred during the 1980s, or is that politically inconvenient?

The policy, one of Mr Brown’s first as Chancellor, has played a starring role in the collapse of final salary pensions in Britain. In the late Nineties, many of these funds were in surplus – in other words they had more than enough money to meet current and future payments to retired workers.

But that situation lastly only briefly, with rapid increases in life expectancy and a less benign investment leaving many companies facing bulging deficits today. Without the tax credits on dividends, pension funds went into terminal decline, and now just one in 12 staff are in a final salary scheme.....down from 34pc in 1997.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/10798785/True-cost-of-Labours-pension-tax-raid-and-others-since-Seventies.html

david_herdson

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The Lib Dems have only put on 2-3% since 2015. That is not 'doing well', except in relative terms. As I mentioned in the leader, it's still a lower ehare than the Liberals / Alliance / Lib Dems have won since 1970.

Similarly, the Con share is *up* by about 4%. True, some of that is 2015 Kippers switching ()and you can see from the figures that there's scope for more there), but there've also been swings from Lab and LD too, so the Tory recovery is much more broadly-based than you imply. The favourability figures also suggest tat it's deeper than some (including me) had given credit for.

Charles

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

Of course Charles firmly supports both Cameron and May, who take largely contradictory positions on most issues.

We should pay off debt by 2020, until we shouldn't. Grammar schools are both an anachronism and the future.

Hope. I quite liked what Cameron and Osborne said they were going to do but became progressively disenchanted after about 2013/14 with their failure to deliver.

It pains me to admit it, but @Alanbrooke called it right

CarlottaVance

Why am I not surprised?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bercow-blocked-vaz-revelations-after-accepting-poll-donations-gbs8ndr65?shareToken=1ae5c7f432a4722ddaea3b76ca6b39a8

Morris_Dancer

Miss Vance, be interesting to see a public/private sector breakdown of who's still got final salary schemes.

Mr. Chestnut, we need to erode the mountain of debt as soon as possible.

theakes

At last, someone suggesting you need to watch the Lib Dems at Stoke. Can you imagine the effect of such a victory on the May elections. Local comments from there are now "we keep getting, oh not not another leaflet from the Lib Dems etc" It would overshadow Copeland. My estimate is that the true Lib Dem opinion poll level is about 15%, because the Green, (especially the Green) UKIP and Con vote are all just that bit overstated.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Mortimer

Charles said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

Of course Charles firmly supports both Cameron and May, who take largely contradictory positions on most issues.

We should pay off debt by 2020, until we shouldn't. Grammar schools are both an anachronism and the future.

Hope. I quite liked what Cameron and Osborne said they were going to do but became progressively disenchanted after about 2013/14 with their failure to deliver.

It pains me to admit it, but @Alanbrooke called it right

+1

Sean_F

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

I don't think Theresa May is especially right wing, though no doubt she looks it, compared to Corbyn.

At the moment, I'd say Lib Dem success in local elections is mostly reversion to the mean. They have 1,900 seats, compared to 4-5,000 from 1993-2010. It's like the Conservatives regaining local authorities like Tunbridge Wells, Hertsmere, Bromley, and Castle Point, after 1997.

In some cases, yes, but that doesn't explain the spectacular swings in places like Rotheham or Sunderland where they had little history, or-on the other side - their very mediocre effort last May.

Huge swings are achievable with small numbers. If you go to Keith Edkins' website and look at by-elections from the late nineties, there are some huge swings to the Conservatives, but Labour were still comfortably ahead at Parliamentary level.

david_herdson

radsatser said:

It seems obvious to me, low turn out local elections are attracting the hard core Remoaners still believing and hoping for the 2nd referendum fairy to appear, whilst the rest of the electorate in the ward do what they normally do at local elections.

Once the small number of residual Remoaners are polled against the rest of the population in national polls, the LibDem figure returns to is range of the last few years.

In Sunderland?!

Brexit probably played a big part in the Lib Dems doing well in Witney and undoubtedly played a huge part in them doing very well in Richmond Park. But I don't think those results are necessarily applicable nationwide. If they were, we wouldn't be seeing the patchiness in performance.

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

daodao said:

DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."

I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:

Copeland: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP & LD 10 each, Others 5
Stoke: Lab 45, UKIP 30, LD 15, Con 5, Others 5

I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:

Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.

It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.

The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see

Who are the others that are going to get 10%?

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Ex-Tranmere Rovers professional Professor Paul Nuttall has history.

Morris_Dancer

French betting: the top 3 are all 2.5-4 now (roughly even spread, Macron shortest, Fillon longest).

Anyone who got on Fillon at 8 a week or two ago must be quite pleased.

CarlottaVance

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Vance, be interesting to see a public/private sector breakdown of who's still got final salary schemes.

This is now over 3 years old:

Public and private sector workers are separated by a "pensions apartheid", experts said last night, after an official report showed a gaping disparity between the retirement benefit packages on offer.

It found three in four people who still hold a “gold-plated” pension work in the public sector, following a sharp decline in the number of people with a generous scheme.

The total number of people with a so-called final salary pension - which typically provides two-thirds of a worker’s last pay packet in retirement – has fallen by 1.3 million in the past six years, according to the Office for National Statistics.

However, this decline was almost exclusive to the private sector, where scheme memberships fell from three million in 2006 to just 1.7 million today, the ONS said.

By contrast, workers in the public sector have kept their generous retirement benefits. A total of 5.1* million state employees are still in line for this type of pension – no change from the figure in 2006.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/10336591/Gap-widens-on-public-vs-private-pensions.html

Charles

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Seeking to advocate liberal values by joining a socialist party would appear to be a mistake IMHO.

That's why I've never seen the appeal of the LibDems - for as long as I've been paying attention they've been more control-minded social democrats than Liberals.

I guess I'm stuck for a while longer.

Liberals always dominated the grassroots, but you are right that during its early days the social democrats dominated the national party. My feel of the party is that those days have passed - whatever you think of Clegg his roots were genuinely liberal and Farron even more so. It would take another influx from the Labour right to change things again; a prospect that, like last time, many would view with distinctly mixed feelings.

Not convinced - I'd probably be an FDP voter in Germany to put it in context

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Ex-Tranmere Rovers professional Professor Paul Nuttall has history.

Sad

MikeSmithson

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Nuttall's problem is that he's now looked at through the prism of other previous apparent porkies which has only been made worse by the cack-handed attempt to get a Stoke address on the ballot form.

This election is the first time he faced serious scrutiny and he hasn't responded well. He also risks losing his political career.

malcolmg

logical_song said:

Jonathan said:

logical_song said:

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

The LDs are as responsible for Brexit as anyone else. Their weakness gave Cameron his majority.

So maybe the SNP are as responsible for Brexit as UKIP. Their strength enabled Cameron to scare voters into voting Tory by predicting a Lab/SNP government.
Really, people do tie themselves in knots on PB!

Yup, the Tory victory in the UK was in the SNPs interest.

When losing the argument, it is always a good tactic to change the subject.

He is right though

MikeSmithson

david_herdson said:

radsatser said:

It seems obvious to me, low turn out local elections are attracting the hard core Remoaners still believing and hoping for the 2nd referendum fairy to appear, whilst the rest of the electorate in the ward do what they normally do at local elections.

Once the small number of residual Remoaners are polled against the rest of the population in national polls, the LibDem figure returns to is range of the last few years.

In Sunderland?!

Brexit probably played a big part in the Lib Dems doing well in Witney and undoubtedly played a huge part in them doing very well in Richmond Park. But I don't think those results are necessarily applicable nationwide. If they were, we wouldn't be seeing the patchiness in performance.

David - a couple of weeks ago you were saying the LDs had a better chance in Copeland than Stoke. Now you seem to have reversed that. Any reason?

prh47bridge

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, you're conflating paying off debt with ending the deficit.

What are interest payments at now? About £40-50bn?

More than Defence. Or Education. About a third the spending on the NHS.

Projected to be £49.6 billion this year.

chestnut

I believe the main civil service scheme has been changed to career average salary in the last year or two.

FF43

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

If you object to tuition fees, no-one has clean hands. Labour introduced them, at a lower level. It would be illogical to vote for the Conservatives instead of the Lib Dems on the basis that the Lib Dems agreed to a Tory policy. There is no prospect of any party removing tuiton fees now.

Nick Clegg's issue (and I think it was his issue rather than the party's first and foremost) is that he enthusiastically conceded the tuition fees point days after campaigning against it, so he came across as totally untrustworthy. A smarter operator would concede the policy unwillingly, claim that Downing Street was worth the mass, and make more of the concessions and safeguards that he did actually negotiate.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Ex-Tranmere Rovers professional Professor Paul Nuttall has history.

Sad

It sure is. Can a proven liar be believed when he says he has changed his mind on privatising the NHS?

If he wins in Stoke it will show just how catastrophically poor Corbyn Labour is.

malcolmg

Charles said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

Of course Charles firmly supports both Cameron and May, who take largely contradictory positions on most issues.

We should pay off debt by 2020, until we shouldn't. Grammar schools are both an anachronism and the future.

Hope. I quite liked what Cameron and Osborne said they were going to do but became progressively disenchanted after about 2013/14 with their failure to deliver.

It pains me to admit it, but @Alanbrooke called it right

It was obvious those two charlatans were just snake oil salesmen. They had lying honed to perfection.

dr_spyn

If the LDs are doing so well, why so some LDs appear to be making local pacts with The Greens in Broxtowe & Brighton. Doesn't look like a party which is on the up.

isam

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Nuttall's problem is that he's now looked at through the prism of other previous apparent porkies which has only been made worse by the cack-handed attempt to get a Stoke address on the ballot form.

This election is the first time he faced serious scrutiny and he hasn't responded well. He also risks losing his political career.

As I say, if he has lied about being at Hillsbotough it is disgraceful. I have no way of knowing.

He seems to have said he doesn't like to talk about it. Maybe he has good reason not to want to.

What you and others are doing is smearing someone who claims to have been at a very upsetting and tragic event, with no evidence whatsoever & only partisan political advantage as a motive.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Bridge, cheers. That's a critical political issue but it seems to get hardly any time these days.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Ex-Tranmere Rovers professional Professor Paul Nuttall has history.

Sad

It sure is. Can a proven liar be believed when he says he has changed his mind on privatising the NHS?

If he wins in Stoke it will show just how catastrophically poor Corbyn Labour is.

You sure do hate the enemy more than show any positivity for your own cause, if there is one.

malcolmg

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.

I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.

Mostly, it is water under the bridge. The coalition is now a long time ago politically, and increasingly seen by many as a golden period of good government.

Those dastardly LibDems, winning byelections by campaigning!

It's only now that the Tories are heading right and embracing Trump that the calming influence the LDs had on them between 2010 and 2015 is becoming apparent. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got til it's gone ...

I do continue to believe, though, that what did for the LDs was not so much tuition fees as the early years love-in with the Tories. That grated and created a perception that then made the tuition fees u-turn so toxic.

The tories are not heading right.

May is the most left wing leader we've had for several decades. Rejoice!

This place is rife with delusion but that takes the biscuit.

MikeSmithson

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/830137552418004993

If he is making it up, it is disgraceful

On the other hand, there is no possible way that his opponents could know that he is or isn't, so it comes across as a desperate, cheap and possibly grossly offensive insinuation

Ex-Tranmere Rovers professional Professor Paul Nuttall has history.

Sad

It sure is. Can a proven liar be believed when he says he has changed his mind on privatising the NHS?

If he wins in Stoke it will show just how catastrophically poor Corbyn Labour is.

You sure do hate the enemy more than show any positivity for your own cause, if there is one.

Why not deal with the point rather than attack the messenger?

Charles

malcolmg said:

Charles said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

The Tories have embraced Trump and made Brexit their own.

Labour have embraced Brexit and their leadership is an embarrassment.

The Libs always do well when the Tories go nasty and Labour go loony and left.

What alternative has a middle of the road 'Remainer' got at the moment other than to vote Lib Dem?

That sounds pretty close, to me. I am a member of the Labour party. It won't get my vote until Corbyn has gone next year.

I look forward to your agonised rationalisation for why you are going to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour Party in 2020!

Don't build it up too much in your head ;-)

Of course Charles firmly supports both Cameron and May, who take largely contradictory positions on most issues.

We should pay off debt by 2020, until we shouldn't. Grammar schools are both an anachronism and the future.

Hope. I quite liked what Cameron and Osborne said they were going to do but became progressively disenchanted after about 2013/14 with their failure to deliver.

It pains me to admit it, but @Alanbrooke called it right

It was obvious those two charlatans were just snake oil salesmen. They had lying honed to perfection.

I do give people the benefit of the doubt. Possibly a weakness but I'd rather go through life in an optimistic frame of mind

JackW

The silver lining in the resurgence of the LibDems is that it augers well for Auchentennach Fine Pies ....

ThomasNashe

I think Nuttall is emerging as a much more complex figure than I took him to be at first. The tweeds seem to indicate yearning for the lost days of the English country gentleman. It's not often that we encounter such an obvious Walter Mitty fantasist in politics. I now listen with greater interest to what he has to say.