I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
People generally don't revisit big constitutional changes. If Scotland had voted for independence, that would be that. Rejoining the UK wouldn't be on the table. Most Remain Conservatives are now pretty reconciled to leaving, added to the 52% who voted Leave.
I posted this at end of the last thread, but since I'm still chuckling over the epic ding dong between Coulter and Guru Murthy - thought others would enjoy a giggle.
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
I thought you would be more careful what you posted after Blacking up Gina Miller with a bone through her nose. I understand you want this one to be true also, maybe 2nd time lucky
Professor Nuttall's problem is that a lot of what he has said - or which has been said on his behalf - turns out to be untrue. That opens the way for questions to be asked about other claims he has made. I don't know whether he was at Hillsbrough and have never said otherwise.
You have repeatedly posted things that you wanted to be true that were untrue. Even though you did not apologise for doing so, are we to treat everything you link to as libellous propaganda? Or do we accept that it isn't always as clever to exaggerate the mistakes of people you disagree with as we think it is?
You can treat what I post in any way that you like. If you want to believe Paul Nuttall has not told fibs about himself that is entirely up to you.
Re local elections I have voted lib dem on several occassions as they did do 'local' very well but not at GE where I vote conservative apart from Blair in 97 and O2. More recently the conservatives have performed well in the Assembly and locally.
If the lib dems are picking up the remain vote it will be interesting to see how this diminishes once A50 is served and remain becomes impossible and converts to re-join.
Yesterday my son, visiting us from Canada, wanted an antibiotic. He called at our medical centre and was seen by a doctor after about half an hour and following the consultation paid a £20 fee. It was seemless apparently.
On one of my trips to New Zealand I consulted my son's doctor (he was resident in New Zealand then) and I paid £45 fee.
This whole row over visitors paying a fee for using the NHS seems to be a nonsense, at least here in Wales
The logic of voting LibDem at the moment is to send a message to May that you don't want the hard nuts in the Tory Party to get free rein in putting immigration and their delusions about sovereignty before the interests of our economy. That isn't going to go away when A50 is served; probably the reverse.
Yes exactly this. I don't want to reverse the decision or block Brexit, but that doesn't mean I want to just let the John Redwood's of the world have their way entirely. The invertebrate Corbyn is providing no opposition whatsoever, so that only really leaves the Lib Dems to put pressure on the Tories.
May may even be grateful for it - much like Cameron blaming things he supported on the liberals in coalition, no tory leader wants to be controlled solely by the Bastards. Renewed Lib Dem pressure would at least give her justification to go for a semi-hard brexit rather than fully.
That said, I do think the LD's need to switch their policy proposals to "we will fight to keep us in EEA/we will rejoin EEA" which is much more workable than a policy to block brexit or rejoin the EU.
Hague from 1997-2001 and Miliband from 2010-2015 also made big gains in local government by elections and yet were trounced at the subsequent general election so the LDs should not get their hopes up too much. Given local by elections favour the opposition and the state of Labour and the fact the LDs better represent Remain than Labour the yellows are the current repository for the protest vote
I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
There is next to zero chance of rejoining the EU now, at most we would rejoin the EEA. The British people do not like being told they are wrong
I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
"Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics" is just the old "Tories are dying out" claim recast. It is illogical here too.
Do you really think rejoining is inevitable, when that will mean the euro + Schengen?
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
I'm not, and it is a potential concern. The impression I get from LDs and tories at the moment, or their most vocal supporters at present, is that I should forget the coalition entirely as some terrible dream, that it's back to being progressive alliance time and pure hard Toryism respectively. That the vote of someone who thought it reasonable government, should piss off. I doubt all feel that way, but the LDs look like they are back to wanting to be labour and that's it, and picking up nota votes by default.
As someone who has voted LD the last 3 GEs, partly as they put in the most effort I'll admit, I'm not getting the impression they want my vote as anything other than nota, that their strategy is only on the left not the centre (which admittedly is where I see myself, but others may disagree)
I don't agree. Farron is as unimpressed by Corbyn as most people - May drove a stake through the heart of "liberal Conservatism" by the purging of the Cameroons and to be honest most of the Conservatives on here seemed quite happy with that (TSE excluded).
No she didn't. She staked the Notting Hill Tories. Liberal Unionism lives in in the West, South and Cumbria/Derbyshire.
Certainly doesn't come off that way at first glance.
The key point is that Osborne didn't represent the tradition of liberalism in the Tory Party. Cameron was closer to it, hence the disappointment is all the greater.
Cameron represented the tradition of Liberalism in the Lib Dems, you could not get a cigarette paper between him and Clegg on most issues. A young Cameron appears to have made the calculation that there was no chance of high office in the LDs so took the logical alternative. Plus someone from his background would logically gravitate to the Conservatives even if it didn't really suit his views.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Except May is in this week's Newstatesman repeating that Brexit means a hard and clean Brexit. She has spelt out what it means in recent speeches - we are leaving the single market.
If we were really going for a cliff-edge, hard Brexit, we would not be ratifying the Unified Patent Court agreement. That gives an important role to the ECJ. A deal will be done because it suits nobody - except swivel-eyed hardliners in Brussels and Westminster - for one not to be done.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Not so fast. Unfortunately, the (literal and metaphorical) cost of leaving will be so great that admitting that it was a ghastly mistake and rejoining will be too politically embarrassing.
Also, although there are clearly many very good things about the EU, it is also a very flawed institution. Whether it's still a relevant way of organising nations as we head into the middle of the 21st century is open to question. If the EU were to fall apart it would be a tragedy but if it can't reassess some of the assumptions on which it's based, it's in for a rocky future.
These points are not contradictory. If we were already outside the EU and voting to join, I'd probably say no. But since we were already in, it seemed foolish to destroy all the connections we have.
By saying we are out of the single market, the EU believe they can say the UK have a demonstrably poorer arrangement than full members, while having a Canada + deal on goods, equivalence on the City of London elements plus border controls will allow May to say we have the Brexit we want.
The real issue for the EU is that not only did project fear fail to sway the voters, it has also failed to materialise in the economy. Anti EU and anti-euro campaigners in places like Italy are starting to point that out in their domestic campaigns.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Except May is in this week's Newstatesman repeating that Brexit means a hard and clean Brexit. She has spelt out what it means in recent speeches - we are leaving the single market.
and the entire panoply of Eurocrats have lined up and told us that hard BrExit is the only option available.
I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
People generally don't revisit big constitutional changes. If Scotland had voted for independence, that would be that. Rejoining the UK wouldn't be on the table. Most Remain Conservatives are now pretty reconciled to leaving, added to the 52% who voted Leave.
I'm relaxed (although it would be pointless and disruptive) to having a 2nd or 3rd referendum.
I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
"Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics" is just the old "Tories are dying out" claim recast. It is illogical here too.
Do you really think rejoining is inevitable, when that will mean the euro + Schengen?
33% voted to Leave in 1975, compared to 52% last year. Those declining demographics are still going strong.
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:
Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.
It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.
The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see
Who are the others that are going to get 10%?
The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.
From all that I can understand, this is entirely due to the weakness of Labour.
I just did not see a path to victory for Labour even if they chose a strong leaver.
And then they selected Gareth Snell....
I don't think the Tories will get too many voting UKIP tactically in Stoke (and they probably don't want to). Tories are famously reluctant to tactically vote, they are up in the polls nationally, Leavers like May, and their candidate is a local councillor, albeit 25.
I think Shadsys 8/1 on UKIP less than 20% in Stoke is a reasonable punt.
This Tory would encourage tactical voting in Stoke. Another Leaver in commons to drown out the frothing Remainerism would be useful.
But more seriously, I don't see how Labour can win and I don't see how UKIP can lose it.
Less than 20%? I'd want 50/1 on that.
Activist Leavers possibly, but if you look over multiple elections you see the same picture. Tories rarely vote tactically, even where they cannot win, and risk putting in Labour. They have a high floor to their vote.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
The thing about those declining demographics is they don't decline, they get replenished as the next generation age and get (generally speaking) more conservative with age.
Also Rejoin will be with no opt outs, schengen, the Euro, EU army, the whole nine years which will be electoral death to present on the vast majority of doorsteps.
People keep forgetting the BSA Survey. 76% of people want to reduce immigration, 52% want to reduce it by a lot, as far as the public are concerned, hard Brexit is the only way to achieve that.
I posted this at end of the last thread, but since I'm still chuckling over the epic ding dong between Coulter and Guru Murthy - thought others would enjoy a giggle.
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
"Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics" is just the old "Tories are dying out" claim recast. It is illogical here too.
Do you really think rejoining is inevitable, when that will mean the euro + Schengen?
33% voted to Leave in 1975, compared to 52% last year. Those declining demographics are still going strong.
Of course, if it had stayed as an economic community without all the political federalising nonsense, they might have kept the Leave vote down to around 33%...
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
I would agree on Copeland, but independents do well in Stoke:
Lab 40, UKIP 20, LD 15, Con 15, others 10.
It is quite possible that UKIP will not be in the top 2. Nuttall looks like Billy Nomates in his country tweeds there.
The FT article paints a different picture of Stoke, but we shall see
Who are the others that are going to get 10%?
The local independents always do well in Stoke. One got 6% at the GE, and they have 16 councillors.
From all that I can understand, this is entirely due to the weakness of Labour.
I just did not see a path to victory for Labour even if they chose a strong leaver.
And then they selected Gareth Snell....
I don't think the Tories will get too many voting UKIP tactically in Stoke (and they probably don't want to). Tories are famously reluctant to tactically vote, they are up in the polls nationally, Leavers like May, and their candidate is a local councillor, albeit 25.
I think Shadsys 8/1 on UKIP less than 20% in Stoke is a reasonable punt.
This Tory would encourage tactical voting in Stoke. Another Leaver in commons to drown out the frothing Remainerism would be useful.
But more seriously, I don't see how Labour can win and I don't see how UKIP can lose it.
Less than 20%? I'd want 50/1 on that.
Activist Leavers possibly, but if you look over multiple elections you see the same picture. Tories rarely vote tactically, even where they cannot win, and risk putting in Labour. They have a high floor to their vote.
Sarah Jones has had the same leaflet delivered 10 times!!! I did say those Lib Dems activists were just dumping them, was only joking though!
It doesn't say party, could be the kippers wanting to get back to the pub quickly.
Yes I know. The other day someone said Lib Dem activists were posting an insane number of leaflets and I joked they were dumping them. Someone is, maybe its not them
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
Because despite Trump being apparently nuttier than a Snickers Bar, he has a lot of clever and successful people behind him, and they are not there because they like the cut of his suit. There is some larger plan at work here, its just not become apparent yet.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
Unfortunately it's more likely to be 8 years than 2.
Mr. Divvie, indeed, it could be closer than many imagine. Didn't watch much of the England match (which sounds like it was a wise decision) but France must have taken a knock to lose a game many thought they should've won.
I thought you would be more careful what you posted after Blacking up Gina Miller with a bone through her nose. I understand you want this one to be true also, maybe 2nd time lucky
Professor Nuttall's problem is that a lot of what he has said - or which has been said on his behalf - turns out to be untrue. That opens the way for questions to be asked about other claims he has made. I don't know whether he was at Hillsbrough and have never said otherwise.
You have repeatedly posted things that you wanted to be true that were untrue. Even though you did not apologise for doing so, are we to treat everything you link to as libellous propaganda? Or do we accept that it isn't always as clever to exaggerate the mistakes of people you disagree with as we think it is?
You can treat what I post in any way that you like. If you want to believe Paul Nuttall has not told fibs about himself that is entirely up to you.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Except May is in this week's Newstatesman repeating that Brexit means a hard and clean Brexit. She has spelt out what it means in recent speeches - we are leaving the single market.
That's what she is saying, because it is of course the best negotiating position, from which to begin. We want hard and clean and out. But when it comes to it (as Parris says) there may be subtle changes in public opinion and parliament still has a say.
Remaining is over. But we may get velvet Brexit.
Inside a fake, steel glove.
I doubt May wants a rock hard tungsten-tipped Brexit. It is, as you say, a negotiating position. And she's quite a bit better at it than Cameron.
What she will do is opt-out of the lot, and then try to negotiate an opt-in to the choice bits she likes (that she judges to be in the national interest) using money as the balancing factor.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Pretty much agree with that Stodge . I have been somewhat surprised by the surge in Lib Dem membership over the last 12 months which has taken them to the highest figure this millenium . The new members do also seem not to be armchair members but keen to get stuck in . As you say many are in areas that the Lib Dems had no pre existing strength and could well lead to surprise gains over the next couple of years .
Indeed, Mark, and there are a couple of areas in London which may be particularly interesting in the 2018 locals.
SW London and Southwark. It would be interesting to see if the Lib Dems can recover lost ground in places like Haringey, Bromley, Harrow, Lambeth, and Islington.
Most middle-class / upper middle-class professionals in those areas are now Conservative only in the matter of economics, not social or political values.
They would vote Conservative if there is a threat of a left-wing Labour Government that might take their money away, but otherwise vote to their values which are not.
David Herdson's explanation doesn't cater for the improved Parliamentary by-election performances, where all parties made serious efforts. And the Lib Dems can push all they like, there has to be a pull as well to get the voters out.
I'm sure the Lib Dems are trying hard. That isn't anything like a complete explanation.
The LibDems invested much more in Witney and Richmond than the other parties.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
Because despite Trump being apparently nuttier than a Snickers Bar, he has a lot of clever and successful people behind him, and they are not there because they like the cut of his suit. There is some larger plan at work here, its just not become apparent yet.
I think it is apparent what some of the plan is: populist american nationalism. Roll back on globalisation, re-inflate the domestic economy, get tough on migration.
More disturbing is what plan is the heads of people like Bannon - who appears to believe that he is there to destroy the state and work towards a "cleansing" war.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Yes, pretty much. Good post.
Personally I’m becoming much more worried about groups like Euratom, and the European Medicines Agency Leaving the EU seems to involve leaving those as well, and, in the case of the EMA may have consequences for the NHS.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
Unfortunately it's more likely to be 8 years than 2.
The mid terms will be the first port of call for Democrats
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?. When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Agreed.
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
Might this Norway-like state then last for ... well, ever? Peter Hitchens doesn't want to be half in/half out but he's predicted that outcome since 2015.
I can't see the UK rejoining as a full member. The terms would be 'worse' than those it has now.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
"The Free Speech University Rankings (FSUR) is back. spiked’s groundbreaking analysis of campus censorship in the UK has published its third annual report, and it paints a grim picture. Our survey, ranking 115 UK universities using our traffic-light system, shows that 63.5 per cent of universities now actively censor speech, and 30.5 per cent stifle speech through excessive regulation. This marks a steady rise in censorship over the past three years. Now only six per cent of UK universities are truly free, open places. Read the 2017 results. And, if you want to join the campaign against campus censorship, contact the FSUR team today.
My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?. When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Agreed.
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.
We are leaving the EU. Ordinary people will be satisfied with that. Quite a lot of them are either xenophobic or anti-free movement and they will be unhappy that (whether Brexit is hard or soft) immigration doesn't stop and the immigrants don't go home. But the Daily Mail and the Sun will buoy them with the thought that at least we've got our blessed Sovereignty back. LTPLM
How much the reality of Brexit will prove to be a nuisance to people is hard to gauge. It will of course affect many businesses, but how much will it impact on the lives of Leave voters? A good example is my nextdoor neighbour - a Leave voter with a flat in Spain who wants to retire there. If the reality of Brexit means his plans are dashed, he will probably be pissed off. How many individual, mind-changing, problems will there be? Probably a lot, but we'll see.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Agreed.
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.
We are leaving the EU. Ordinary people will be satisfied with that. Quite a lot of them are either xenophobic or anti-free movement and they will be unhappy that (whether Brexit is hard or soft) immigration doesn't stop and the immigrants don't go home. But the Daily Mail and the Sun will buoy them with the thought that at least we've got our blessed Sovereignty back. LTPLM
How much the reality of Brexit will prove to be a nuisance to people is hard to gauge. It will of course affect many businesses, but how much will it impact on the lives of Leave voters? A good example is my nextdoor neighbour - a Leave voter with a flat in Spain who wants to retire there. If the reality of Brexit means his plans are dashed, he will probably be pissed off. How many individual, mind-changing, problems will there be? Probably a lot, but we'll see.
My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?. When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.
55 on BF.
...and that's only because I just took everything from 80 to 60 on the back of Mark Seniors confidence!
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
I reckon the Nuttall Hillsborough accusation has been started by Hope not Hate or Momentum. When I campaigned in Clacton for UKIP, Hope not Hate had people wearing UKIP badges shouting racist stuff in the local MacDonalds. They have nothing positive to say, just warped students with not much else better to do.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
Because despite Trump being apparently nuttier than a Snickers Bar, he has a lot of clever and successful people behind him, and they are not there because they like the cut of his suit. There is some larger plan at work here, its just not become apparent yet.
And this supposed insane nitwit has selected all these people...
I remain gobsmacked that after months and months, his detractors can't see what he's doing and instead prefer to assume he's stupid blah blah.
I recalled Reagan's sign off and the whole We The People emphasis
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Agreed.
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the
There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.
We are leaving the EU. Ordinary people will be satisfied with that. Quite a lot of them are either xenophobic or anti-free movement and they will be unhappy that (whether Brexit is hard or soft) immigration doesn't stop and the immigrants don't go home. But the Daily Mail and the Sun will buoy them with the thought that at least we've got our blessed Sovereignty back. LTPLM
How much the reality of Brexit will prove to be a nuisance to people is hard to gauge. It will of course affect many businesses, but how much will it impact on the lives of Leave voters? A good example is my nextdoor neighbour - a Leave voter with a flat in Spain who wants to retire there. If the reality of Brexit means his plans are dashed, he will probably be pissed off. How many individual, mind-changing, problems will there be? Probably a lot, but we'll see.
What would attract people to Frankfurt? It's a comparative backwater.
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Agreed.
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the
There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.
We are leaving the EU. Ordinary people will be satisfied with that. Quite a lot of them are either xenophobic or anti-free movement and they will be unhappy that (whether Brexit is hard or soft) immigration doesn't stop and the immigrants don't go home. But the Daily Mail and the Sun will buoy them with the thought that at least we've got our blessed Sovereignty back. LTPLM
How much the reality of Brexit will prove to be a nuisance to people is hard to gauge. It will of course affect many businesses, but how much will it impact on the lives of Leave voters? A good example is my nextdoor neighbour - a Leave voter with a flat in Spain who wants to retire there. If the reality of Brexit means his plans are dashed, he will probably be pissed off. How many individual, mind-changing, problems will there be? Probably a lot, but we'll see.
What would attract people to Frankfurt? It's a comparative backwater.
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
President Putin will ensure that suitable dirt comes out regarding Le Pen's opponent between the first and second ballot..
My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?. When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.
55 on BF.
...and that's only because I just took everything from 80 to 60 on the back of Mark Seniors confidence!
LOL , I have been doing my usual alternative laying of Labour and UKIP and built up a nice all Green position with a substantial Green figure on the Lib Dems
Matthew Parris seems to have finally calmed down about Brexit (sorta) and has written an interesting, thoughtful piece.
I don't believe there is any way we can now *stay* in the EU, bar some amazing black swan (AND a new referendum), but I wonder if we might end up in a transitional deal which turns out to be really rather prolonged. Half in, half out.
Seems very possible to me. The White Paper is a masterpiece of smoke and mirrors. Friendship with Trump's America is not the strong negotiating point that some Tory Atlanticists had hoped. Blue passports, some cosmetic limits on EU immigration, a redefined role for the ECJ, reduced contributions, a special deal on customs, lots of grandstanding for domestic consumption, job done - a semi-detached relationship. Most will be able to live with that, a vocal, angry minority will not.
Agreed.
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
Might this Norway-like state then last for ... well, ever? Peter Hitchens doesn't want to be half in/half out but he's predicted that outcome since 2015.
I can't see the UK rejoining as a full member. The terms would be 'worse' than those it has now.
Yes, there's a good chance we will be like Norway but Called Something Amazingly Different So No One Can Say We're Like Norway.
Of course there is also a not insignificant chance we will crash out to WTO, but this is where I think Parris has a good point (for the first time since he went mad), the EU is the world's grandmaster at can-kicking. Hard Brexit will be nasty for them (and nasty for us). So the can will be kicked.
Brexit will be done in name, but in reality transitions will be arranged, things will be reconsidered, new debates will be had, agreeable meetings will take place in sunny parts of Italy or Portugal. It will take years and be very dull.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
I would hazard a(n informed) guess that a fair proportion of the 15% are European.
The BSA study works from randomly sampled addresses, and then a random sample of the adults resident within the address to identify respondents. It does not filter for nationality.
Whether the same respondents feel European in comparison to whichever the nationality they are would most likely draw a different response than a comparison to feeling British or European.
My local impression of Stoke Central is that the Lib Dems are probably getting the previous Independant vote and are squeezing the Conservatives and Greens as well as getting a sizable movement from Labour. UKIp are static or falling in % terms. Are they on course to win?. When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.
55 on BF.
...and that's only because I just took everything from 80 to 60 on the back of Mark Seniors confidence!
LOL , I have been doing my usual alternative laying of Labour and UKIP and built up a nice all Green position with a substantial Green figure on the Lib Dems
Ive got the Dems as scratch now.. consider it insurance from the PB Bragging!
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.
We were told that there would be a 'steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt' when the Euro was created nearly 20 years ago.
Take a look at this, authored in part by Chirs Huhne and Will Hutton:
' Continental financial centres such as Frankfurt and Paris will try very hard to stimulate the virtuous circle that has taken London to pre-eminence. Minor details of regulation can be used to advantage one centre over another, or to slow the progress of London to the dominance it would be likely to enjoy if financial services were completely liberalised. Continental determination to avoid London’s dominance would undoubtedly increase if it became clear that Britain’s absence from the euro was permanent. And British exclusion from euro- zone finance ministers’ discussions would permit the use of that forum to develop initiatives aimed at enlarging the roles of Continental centres at the expense of London. '
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
President Putin will ensure that suitable dirt comes out regarding Le Pen's opponent between the first and second ballot..
Macron has revelations about his personal life too yes
Donald J Trump Our legal system is broken! "77% of refugees allowed into U.S. since travel reprieve hail from seven suspect countries." (WT) SO DANGEROUS!
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
Against Fillon , le Pen will be able to tack left and the campaign will be about globalisation and the eu far more than the threat of Islam. Given Fillon has tried to present himself as tough on Islam etc already he can't attack her from there, so he's left fighting a defence of globalisation etc. So I think it's likely that Mélenchon and ps voters will back her over him (obviously not the parisien metro elite types of course!)
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
Unfortunately it's more likely to be 8 years than 2.
The mid terms will be the first port of call for Democrats
Even "despite Trump" the Democrats and their camp followers need to pull their heads out of their @rses and oppose Trump on the basis of argument and logic. Running around screaming about racism white supremacy and attacking people physically because you dont like their views looks childish, if not unhinged, to Mr & Mrs Middle America, and won't win elections.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
Also worth noting that the hoped-for mass exodus of London banking to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, etc is now looking less likely. See Morgan Stanley etc telling Paris there's no way they will move without radical French Labour reform (most improbable).
So the motivation to punish Brexit Britain lessens over time, as emotions abate.
It will be a fudge. Hardcore Remainers (with some justification) will say what the F was it all for, hardcore Leavers will (also with justification) cry betrayal, most people will shrug and accept and sigh with quiet relief (not least out of sheer BOREDOM).
There will be a steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt (especially). London keeping its pre-eminence in the sector can't be certain. Brexit has shrunk our sphere of influence to within an inch of its life, and is hanging on now mainly though the existing pool of expertise and the luck that English is the world language.
We were told that there would be a 'steady flow of financial jobs to Frankfurt' when the Euro was created nearly 20 years ago.
Take a look at this, authored in part by Chirs Huhne and Will Hutton:
' Continental financial centres such as Frankfurt and Paris will try very hard to stimulate the virtuous circle that has taken London to pre-eminence. Minor details of regulation can be used to advantage one centre over another, or to slow the progress of London to the dominance it would be likely to enjoy if financial services were completely liberalised. Continental determination to avoid London’s dominance would undoubtedly increase if it became clear that Britain’s absence from the euro was permanent. And British exclusion from euro- zone finance ministers’ discussions would permit the use of that forum to develop initiatives aimed at enlarging the roles of Continental centres at the expense of London. '
I was a colleague of the Chief Manager for money transmission at one of the big four UK banks and he was always invited (ex-officio) to Euro currency meetings of continental bankers and regulators because of his expertise and UK input.
UK bankers always have a seat at the meetings and influence whether formal or informal.
I don't know if there are any on here who know the area. But why are the "WOW" counties around Milwaukee so Republican. Obama even did better in the rural counties whilst making very little head way in these three counties. They seem to be very different to Detroit, Philly or Chicago suburbs. Is it just white flight and racial segregation? I notice these suburbs are whiter than the other mid western immediate suburbs. Or is it wealth? or something else? Thanx.
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. Add in people with a vested interest in European trade, which is a big number. That's a pretty powerful group. It doesn't have to be an absolute majority, though it wouldn't surprise me if it was already close to that.
But we don't rejoin via a mirror image of the Brexit campaign. First we elect a government committed to improved ties with the EU, and joining some of the less political european projects. The EMA is an obvious one. Then we negotiate closer trade agreements.
Before long the argument isn't should we join or not, it's what is the point of being outside? There won't be another referendum. It will just be part of the winning party's manifesto. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
Does anyone jumping up and down now wonder if they're being played?
ttps://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
And your inability to read 90 days pause to review vetting - but hallucinate *indefinitely ban* to fit your personal bias doesn't make you credible
Oh dear. Good thing you had no credibility left to lose:
"(c) Pursuant to section 212(f) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f), I hereby proclaim that the entry of nationals of Syria as refugees is detrimental to the interests of the United States and thus suspend any such entry until such time as I have determined that sufficient changes have been made to the USRAP to ensure that admission of Syrian refugees is consistent with the national interest."
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
Against Fillon , le Pen will be able to tack left and the campaign will be about globalisation and the eu far more than the threat of Islam. Given Fillon has tried to present himself as tough on Islam etc already he can't attack her from there, so he's left fighting a defence of globalisation etc. So I think it's likely that Mélenchon and ps voters will back her over him (obviously not the parisien metro elite types of course!)
Yes, Fillon is now a better opponent for Le Pen than Macron. The hard left may back Le Pen over Fillon but not Le Pen over Macron, she keeps her own first round vote in either scenario
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !
Policy on the website: "Churchill will be charged with Treason and causing the deaths of thousands of little German School Children when he bombed Dresden."
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
What do you base that number on? Opposition to the EU is mostly concentrated in declining demographics and there are bound to be plenty of stories about how Brexit has adversely affected individuals and businesses. I would say rejoining is inevitable, it's just a question of when.
Well that 15% is likely to be the hard core of a more diffuse pro-European block of people who just like the EU as an idea. Add in people with a vested interest in European trade, which is a big number. That's a pretty powerful group. It doesn't have to be an absolute majority, though it wouldn't surprise me if it was already close to that.
But we don't rejoin via a mirror image of the Brexit campaign. First we elect a government committed to improved ties with the EU, and joining some of the less political european projects. The EMA is an obvious one. Then we negotiate closer trade agreements.
Before long the argument isn't should we join or not, it's what is the point of being outside? There won't be another referendum. It will just be part of the winning party's manifesto. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
You really think that a British government will be able to sign up to full membership of the EU, the euro and Schengen without a referendum?
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !
Policy on the website: "Churchill will be charged with Treason and causing the deaths of thousands of little German School Children when he bombed Dresden."
and
"At least I can help them to put a few things right before its my turn to be Prime Minister."
I think one message from Herdson's piece is that the LDs will do well where they campaign well (which is back to Condition Normal after the 2015 hiccup), so their success at the next GE will depend almost entirely on the number of volunteers and leaflets they have in each seat. And judging by recent local by-elections the electorate is very open to persuasion, so they will pick up quite a few seats if they don't spread themselves too thinly. What are the current odds on them getting 30 seats?
They will need a new message by the next GE. We will have left, and rejoin is going to be much much less popular proposition on the doorsteps that remain was.
True, but they've established themselves in many people's minds as a happy-clappy pro-Europe party and that will give many voters a positive reason to vote for them. (16 million people voted Remain and neither Labour nor Tories are doing a very good job at the moment at shoring up their support among that very large group.)
Positive reasons to vote for political parties are not to be sniffed at. The LDs' low showing in opinion polls belies the fact that there must be small pockets where their support is 25%+. I'm sure they're very good at identifying these and exploiting them.
Probably some what less than half of that 16m are committed remainers, once you remove pretty much all the conservative voters that followed Cameron's lead and are now following May's lead, and those people that believed Project Fear, and now.... don't. Also the huge number that were playing it safe and saw Remain as the safety option, but will see Rejoin as the most risky option having left.
Which is not to say that those 4-6m committed remainers are not worth chasing for a party sitting on 8% of the vote!
Once we have Left, the support for Rejoin will be 15% at most. The Lib Dems are going to need a better USP.
Do you think Labour are well position to pick up the 'that was a bloody disaster but we can't go back now' vote?
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.
Or leftwingers that are hard of reading
I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.
Plato is reigning PB POTY. She's mainstream and centrist in her politics.. Only a socially confused misfit like yourself would find her views in any way extreme.
DH: "Given Nuttall’s problems, I’d keep an eye on Stoke."
I really don't expect the Lie Dems to do very well in either by-election of the forthcoming by-elections. I would expect something close to the following percentage shares:
"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !
Policy on the website: "Churchill will be charged with Treason and causing the deaths of thousands of little German School Children when he bombed Dresden."
Is this candidate an admirer of David Irving, or is it a spoof website to try and make Nuttall look more leftish?
I'm not sure you have grasped the idea that you can be against illegal immigration without wanting time ban refugees from Syria indefinitely.
You're wasting your time debating with extreme right-wing fruitcakes like Plato.
Or leftwingers that are hard of reading
I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order
That is a different section of the order. Three is a separate provision specific to Syria. Apologize or slink off into the grass
Why do I think it isn't going to pan out like that.
The NYT has created a team to dig dirt on Trump apparently. I'm beginning to think 2017 will be more entertaining than 2016 - especially if Wilders does well
If, as I suspect, Le Pen wins then 2017 will be spectacular, and not in a good way. The chaos of the collapse of the Euro will wash over us in the UK.
Le Pen has a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. I put her chances at about 15%. She needs her opponent in the run off to be destroyed by scandal and/or be from the far Left. At the moment, it's likely she'll get 35-40% (which is still more than double what her father achieved.)
At the moment her best bet is a clear win in round 1 with Fillon just scraping ahead of Macron to face her in the run off ideally with more revelations coming out about his expenses. The latest polls show Melenchon voters voting for Le Pen against Fillon and over a quarter of PS voters too
Against Fillon , le Pen will be able to tack left and the campaign will be about globalisation and the eu far more than the threat of Islam. Given Fillon has tried to present himself as tough on Islam etc already he can't attack her from there, so he's left fighting a defence of globalisation etc. So I think it's likely that Mélenchon and ps voters will back her over him (obviously not the parisien metro elite types of course!)
Yes, Fillon is now a better opponent for Le Pen than Macron. The hard left may back Le Pen over Fillon but not Le Pen over Macron, she keeps her own first round vote in either scenario
All good points. I am however basing my own prediction of a Le Pen win mainly on the 'domino theory' of nationalist populism which some academic put forward the other day (can't find the link I'm afraid).
The populist surge is going from country to country. I don't think after Trump we can rely on polls too much and given, that once again, we have a scenario where the populist's opponents seem to be crap and/or corrupt elitists for one reason or another. Well...
I don't know if there are any on here who know the area. But why are the "WOW" counties around Milwaukee so Republican. Obama even did better in the rural counties whilst making very little head way in these three counties. They seem to be very different to Detroit, Philly or Chicago suburbs. Is it just white flight and racial segregation? I notice these suburbs are whiter than the other mid western immediate suburbs. Or is it wealth? or something else? Thanx.
Lib Dems should not be ignored in either Stoke or Copeland.
They did worse in both seats than they did nationally at the last general election and both voted heavily Leave, if the LDs win either Farron is heading for Downing Street!
Comments
The two couldn't be further apart
https://youtu.be/-F52ZqO7lj0
May may even be grateful for it - much like Cameron blaming things he supported on the liberals in coalition, no tory leader wants to be controlled solely by the Bastards. Renewed Lib Dem pressure would at least give her justification to go for a semi-hard brexit rather than fully.
That said, I do think the LD's need to switch their policy proposals to "we will fight to keep us in EEA/we will rejoin EEA" which is much more workable than a policy to block brexit or rejoin the EU.
Do you really think rejoining is inevitable, when that will mean the euro + Schengen?
Also, although there are clearly many very good things about the EU, it is also a very flawed institution. Whether it's still a relevant way of organising nations as we head into the middle of the 21st century is open to question. If the EU were to fall apart it would be a tragedy but if it can't reassess some of the assumptions on which it's based, it's in for a rocky future.
These points are not contradictory. If we were already outside the EU and voting to join, I'd probably say no. But since we were already in, it seemed foolish to destroy all the connections we have.
By saying we are out of the single market, the EU believe they can say the UK have a demonstrably poorer arrangement than full members, while having a Canada + deal on goods, equivalence on the City of London elements plus border controls will allow May to say we have the Brexit we want.
The real issue for the EU is that not only did project fear fail to sway the voters, it has also failed to materialise in the economy. Anti EU and anti-euro campaigners in places like Italy are starting to point that out in their domestic campaigns.
Leave would simply win by a much bigger margin.
France imploding and getting booed by their fans would help of course.
Also Rejoin will be with no opt outs, schengen, the Euro, EU army, the whole nine years which will be electoral death to present on the vast majority of doorsteps.
People keep forgetting the BSA Survey. 76% of people want to reduce immigration, 52% want to reduce it by a lot, as far as the public are concerned, hard Brexit is the only way to achieve that.
What she will do is opt-out of the lot, and then try to negotiate an opt-in to the choice bits she likes (that she judges to be in the national interest) using money as the balancing factor.
She has a track record of doing this.
They would vote Conservative if there is a threat of a left-wing Labour Government that might take their money away, but otherwise vote to their values which are not.
More disturbing is what plan is the heads of people like Bannon - who appears to believe that he is there to destroy the state and work towards a "cleansing" war.
When someone says they have got the same leaflet 10 times, they mean the same message in different terms, not the same actual leaflet.
I can't see the UK rejoining as a full member. The terms would be 'worse' than those it has now.
https://youtu.be/T7LGoHV3aKs
Heading to campaign in Stoke this weekend? Be sure to take lots of photos and tweet them with the hashtag #MomentumCarpool
So far, one photo and that was of the drive back home!
I guess the weather is not too good for canvassing today.
http://www.spiked-online.com/free-speech-university-rankings#.WJ79MlmnzqA
"The Free Speech University Rankings (FSUR) is back. spiked’s groundbreaking analysis of campus censorship in the UK has published its third annual report, and it paints a grim picture. Our survey, ranking 115 UK universities using our traffic-light system, shows that 63.5 per cent of universities now actively censor speech, and 30.5 per cent stifle speech through excessive regulation. This marks a steady rise in censorship over the past three years. Now only six per cent of UK universities are truly free, open places. Read the 2017 results. And, if you want to join the campaign against campus censorship, contact the FSUR team today.
We are leaving the EU. Ordinary people will be satisfied with that. Quite a lot of them are either xenophobic or anti-free movement and they will be unhappy that (whether Brexit is hard or soft) immigration doesn't stop and the immigrants don't go home. But the Daily Mail and the Sun will buoy them with the thought that at least we've got our blessed Sovereignty back. LTPLM
How much the reality of Brexit will prove to be a nuisance to people is hard to gauge. It will of course affect many businesses, but how much will it impact on the lives of Leave voters? A good example is my nextdoor neighbour - a Leave voter with a flat in Spain who wants to retire there. If the reality of Brexit means his plans are dashed, he will probably be pissed off. How many individual, mind-changing, problems will there be? Probably a lot, but we'll see.
I remain gobsmacked that after months and months, his detractors can't see what he's doing and instead prefer to assume he's stupid blah blah.
I recalled Reagan's sign off and the whole We The People emphasis
And note the colour of the curtains - familiar now? That's not a coincidence
https://youtu.be/UKVsq2daR8Q
Next he'll be saying he doesn't really want his country to be independent!
https://twitter.com/Glenn_Kitson/status/830384706260725764
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-mep-paul-nuttall-denies-7959379
So that means he was Bungle right?
The BSA study works from randomly sampled addresses, and then a random sample of the adults resident within the address to identify respondents. It does not filter for nationality.
Whether the same respondents feel European in comparison to whichever the nationality they are would most likely draw a different response than a comparison to feeling British or European.
Take a look at this, authored in part by Chirs Huhne and Will Hutton:
http://tilveran-i-esb.blog.is/users/24/tilveran-i-esb/files/why_britain_should_join_the_euro_rl334d.pdf
' Continental financial centres such as Frankfurt and Paris will try very hard to stimulate the virtuous circle that has taken London to pre-eminence. Minor details of regulation can be used to advantage one centre over another, or to slow the progress of London to the dominance it would be likely to enjoy if financial services were completely liberalised. Continental determination to avoid London’s dominance would undoubtedly increase if it became clear that Britain’s absence from the euro was permanent. And British exclusion from euro- zone finance ministers’ discussions would permit the use of that forum to develop initiatives aimed at enlarging the roles of Continental centres at the expense of London. '
Donald J Trump
Our legal system is broken! "77% of refugees allowed into U.S. since travel reprieve hail from seven suspect countries." (WT) SO DANGEROUS!
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”
...
A financial services partner at another leading strategy consulting firm, also speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed that the impact of the Brexit vote will be felt sooner rather than later in London finance circles. “These banks are going to start moving roles overseas very quickly,” he said, citing one client which has made preparations to move 1,000 roles out of the City. “The impact on the London economy is going to be dire.”
Chris Wheeler, banking analyst at Atlantic Equities agrees: “There are going to be a mass of finance jobs moving out of this country and they’re going to move soon. Anyone who thinks J.P. Morgan or Morgan Stanley are going to wait years before moving their thousands of jobs is in cloud cuckoo land. They’ll want to get uncertainty out of the way and to comply as soon as possible. This is the biggest change in London since the Big Bang.” '
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
By my reckoning at an average of 5,000 jobs per month we should have seen nearly 40,000 London finance jobs moved overseas by now.
"Adolf Hitler is a lovely kind person, compared to me." isn't a phrase you often see on a candidate website !
WTF?
They're illegal aliens.
It's all rather "Springtime for Hitler!
UK bankers always have a seat at the meetings and influence whether formal or informal.
But we don't rejoin via a mirror image of the Brexit campaign. First we elect a government committed to improved ties with the EU, and joining some of the less political european projects. The EMA is an obvious one. Then we negotiate closer trade agreements.
Before long the argument isn't should we join or not, it's what is the point of being outside? There won't be another referendum. It will just be part of the winning party's manifesto. It will all be a lot easier and less contentious than leaving was. Future generations will wonder what the fuss was about.
"(c) Pursuant to section 212(f) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f), I hereby proclaim that the entry of nationals of Syria as refugees is detrimental to the interests of the United States and thus suspend any such entry until such time as I have determined that sufficient changes have been made to the USRAP to ensure that admission of Syrian refugees is consistent with the national interest."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/index.html?client=ms-android-motorola
"At least I can help them to put a few things right before its my turn to be Prime Minister."
I hereby proclaim that the immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens from countries referred to in section 217(a)(12) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1187(a)(12), would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of such persons for 90 days from the date of this order
The populist surge is going from country to country. I don't think after Trump we can rely on polls too much and given, that once again, we have a scenario where the populist's opponents seem to be crap and/or corrupt elitists for one reason or another. Well...
According to Pew, learning the language is very important in US/European culture.
http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/02/pew-graph-identity-language.png?w=640
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243521.0