It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
Are we allowed to call them stupid?
You can't allow ignorance to keep you silent.
Call them stupid if you like but objectively we've seen a few occasions recently where the liberal left have been losing while we think we're winning, and think we're being clever to boot. I certainly don't think we should be shy about opposing, but we also need some relentless messages that will reach people who didn't vote for the way we wanted.
TBF this one does have an incompetence angle, which is one of the key themes that we should be hitting the populists with, but I worry it's getting lost in the self-congratulatory irony.
Failure to get people to the ballot box in the right places is what's hampering the Democrats. What Trump is doing may well motivate some of the "They're all as bad as each other brigade". That's all it would take. The problem in England is much more structural and intractable, but would be helped by having a credible Labour leader who does not wince in the presence of the Union Jack. Interestingly, there is some indication the moderate centre-left is getting up off the floor in France and Germany, with Macron and the SPD both seeing their polling improve. Is this also a Trump thing?
. Whether a seat voted Remain or Leave does not affect local or I suspect parliamentary outcomes. The Referendum is history to most folk and many are bored stiff hearing politicians, political betting and the media on both sides going on about it. The world is moving on in people minds, they feel they have much more to worry about, rising prices, inflation, high personal debt levels and interest rates rising soon.
I agree very much with that.
Witney, Richmond Park and Sleaford said different and I expect Copeland and Stoke may do too and of course Brexit affects the economy and immigration too
Looking at the seats which changed hands between Conservative and Labour in 2015
Conservative gain from Labour Bolton W - Leave Morley - Leave Telford - Leave Derby N - Leave Corby (regain) - Leave Plymouth Moor View - Leave Southampton Itchen - Leave Gower - Leave ?? Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative Brentford - Remain Ealing Acton - Remain Enfield N - Remain Ilford N - Remain ?? Chester - Remain Dewsbury - Leave Hove - Remain Lancaster - Remain ?? Wirral W - Remain Wolverhampton SW - Leave
A striking result.
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
I think 40% or so of Conservatives were always going to vote Leave, but another 20-25% were waiting for the outcome of Cameron's renegotiation before deciding.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I would have thought there are more Labour voters in London than there are voters in the whole of Wales.
The real issue is that if Labour try and concentrate on Remain voter support only they effectively kiss goodbye to every seat outside London, Manchester, West Yorkshire and Newcastle - although that is indeed where most of their voters live if we just judge by raw numbers.
I do disagree and do not believe that the vast majority of voters are anything like as Brexit obsessed as most commentators on here and elsewhere assume.
It isn't just Brexit. It is the different worldviews of the disparate coalition of Labour voters. May's worldview appears, anecdotally and in the polling, to appeal more to voters outside of urban areas who would traditionally have voted Labour.
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
Maltese women are the only European nationality with higher BMI than UK, but apart from that I agree. Brexit Britons will have narrower horizons.
I haven't been to Malta for years but returning from France the differnce in obeisity is extraordinary. If you see a very large person in the environs of Nice the chances are they're English. Considering most Britons are slaves to fitbit it's surprising
Obesity in Britain is heavily class related, though all SE are fatter than tbey used to be.
Middle aged Mediterraneans are a bit podgy, but fat young people on the Med are almost always British or Irish. Our Continental cousins have more healthy lifestyles.
The additives that go into US food products - corn syrup? - have a direct impact on obesity levels there. When they tell us what trade deal we can have, allowing these will be part of the package.
Do British people have to buy these products ?
They may have little choice. They will not only be permitted in imports from the US, they will be allowed in products currently sold here.
Not necessarily. It depends what the US asks for and what the UK government agreed to. Previously our beef industry was sacrificed to benefit German and Italian manufacturers by a central body. Now the government will be directly accountable to the peopke affected for their decisions. That is a good thing.
The UK will take what the Americans offer or we won't. They'll set the terms. The government was aleays accountable and the beef industry will continue to be irrelevant to determining the outcome of elections.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same with ABC1s as with C2DEs so there is now no class difference between support for the Tories or Labour. However the LDs are third with ABC1s and UKIP third with C2DEs so there is a class difference between LD and UKIP voters with LD voters more middle-class and UKIP voters more working class
I would be wary of taking too much from this latest Yougov poll, many of the crossbreaks are naff and inconsistent with the other most recent Yougov polls.
The average social grade lead in the previous four polls, which are fairly internally consistent, is 15% ABC1 (41-26) and only 7% C2DE (34-27).
But the LD-UKIP thing is real though, they are anti-parties. The LDs have twice the percentage of ABC1 as C2DE. UKIP have half the percentage of ABC1s compared to C2DE.
The trouble Mr Corbyn has is that no one listens to him. Until you get people to listen to you, youcan't change their opinion. Bear in mind that most left of centre media outlets are heavily pro EU and thus are hardly going to promote someone with opinions to the contrary.
The Guardian (if still in existence) is probably going to go back to promoting the Liberal Democrats, seeing them as the best chance of returning to the EU fold - but to many Labour supporters they are seen as traitors for lying in bed with the Tories and picking up fleas.
In a nutshell - the left is basically a headless chicken - or a two-headed snake. No matter how much they scream at each other, the tories or how many cars they burn, lectures and discussions they scream down or tories they kick and punch, they will never be able to get a coherent message over and rally round one or the other party.
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
Try the resorts of southern Europe in May and June.
I think 40% or so of Conservatives were always going to vote Leave, but another 20-25% were waiting for the outcome of Cameron's renegotiation before deciding.
Another chunk only voted Remain out of loyalty to or faith in Dave and/or the Conservative Party, and now with a leader set on Leaving, could reasonably be expected to vote the other way.
It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
Are we allowed to call them stupid?
You can't allow ignorance to keep you silent.
Call them stupid if you like but objectively we've seen a few occasions recently where the liberal left have been losing while we think we're winning, and think we're being clever to boot. I certainly don't think we should be shy about opposing, but we also need some relentless messages that will reach people who didn't vote for the way we wanted.
TBF this one does have an incompetence angle, which is one of the key themes that we should be hitting the populists with, but I worry it's getting lost in the self-congratulatory irony.
Failure to get people to the ballot box in the right places is what's hampering the Democrats. What Trump is doing may well motivate some of the "They're all as bad as each other brigade". That's all it would take. The problem in England is much more structural and intractable, but would be helped by having a credible Labour leader who does not wince in the presence of the Union Jack. Interestingly, there is some indication the moderate centre-left is getting up off the floor in France and Germany, with Macron and the SPD both seeing their polling improve. Is this also a Trump thing?
Macron is a centrist liberal not centre left really, the cenre left candidate is the Corbynista Hamon. Hence the better parallel there may be the recovery of the LDs. In Germany the liberal FDP is more libertarian hence closer to the Tories than the LDs and thus the SPD benefit there
Looking at the seats which changed hands between Conservative and Labour in 2015
Conservative gain from Labour Bolton W - Leave Morley - Leave Telford - Leave Derby N - Leave Corby (regain) - Leave Plymouth Moor View - Leave Southampton Itchen - Leave Gower - Leave ?? Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative Brentford - Remain Ealing Acton - Remain Enfield N - Remain Ilford N - Remain ?? Chester - Remain Dewsbury - Leave Hove - Remain Lancaster - Remain ?? Wirral W - Remain Wolverhampton SW - Leave
A striking result.
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
The latter though of course Cameron also won Remain LD seats in 2015 which are now moving back to the yellows and Corbyn is less supported by Remain voters than Miliband
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
I think there are quite a lot in holiday resorts and/or in ‘fashionable’ areas. One of the problems is the abysmal level of European (or indeed other) language take up in British schools. And no, I don’t blame the teachers. A regular subject on pharmaceutical chat boards is the possibilty of obtaining work in Europe and the difficulty in doing so, largely due to a perceived language problems.
It doesn't red when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to s from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. he Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same working class
I'd expect to see the Tories hold seats like Wells, Yeovil, Somerton, North Devon, Torbay very easily at the next election, but the Lib Dems to challenge very strongly in SW London, and places like Bath and Cheadle, and achieve big swings in seats like Guildford and Winchester.
The Tories could certainly lose seats like Twickenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Bath and Lewes to the LDs at the next election but gain seats like Barrow, Bury from Labour
By 2020 Brexit will be a done deal, and, I predict, not the appalling disaster Remoaners fear and portend.
Will the pro-EU voters still be angry enough to switch allegiance in a Brit GE? Hmmm.
Culturally I think a wealthy Remainer in Twickenham or Bath has more in common with the LDs than May's Tories but then again a blue collar Leaver in Bridgend or Halifax has more in common with May's Tories than Corbyn Labour
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the erland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't exit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
I think there are quite a lot in holiday resorts and/or in ‘fashionable’ areas. One of the problems is the abysmal level of European (or indeed other) language take up in British schools. And no, I don’t blame the teachers. A regular subject on pharmaceutical chat boards is the possibilty of obtaining work in Europe and the difficulty in doing so, largely due to a perceived language problems.
Very few Brits work abroad though whether in Europe or the wider world and those that do tend to be graduates. As stated earlier about half the country have never travelled outside Europe, a majority have never travelled beyond Europe or the US and about 10% have never even been outside the UK
I am not certain it is clear it is increasingly unpopular. There is a wide margin of error on those polls, +/- 4.5 and we aren't getting the same polling companies.
I think it is more likely that it is roughly 45/55, not a million miles away from the GE popular vote result. I doubt people have radically changed their mind about this in less than 7 days.
Personally even 42% in favour is surprisingly high for a country built on immigration. If before all of this you would have asked me, I would have thought more like 33/66% for/against bans on immigration.
The seats Con gained from Lab last time around. I would guess all have low levels of graduate employment and immigration. The jobs market has really recovered at the lower end.
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same with ABC1s as with C2DEs so there is now no class difference between support for the Tories or Labour. However the LDs are third with ABC1s and UKIP third with C2DEs so there is a class difference between LD and UKIP voters with LD voters more middle-class and UKIP voters more working class
I would be wary of taking too much from this latest Yougov poll, many of the crossbreaks are naff and inconsistent with the other most recent Yougov polls.
The average social grade lead in the previous four polls, which are fairly internally consistent, is 15% ABC1 (41-26) and only 7% C2DE (34-27).
But the LD-UKIP thing is real though, they are anti-parties. The LDs have twice the percentage of ABC1 as C2DE. UKIP have half the percentage of ABC1s compared to C2DE.
Nonetheless I think it does mark a shift, now the political class divide is not between Tories and Labour as it was 50 years ago but Leavers and Remainers and most markedly UKIP and LD voters
Not Leavers and Remainers per se, but the underlying value sets.
Looking at my figures i'd say the Yougov polls show the Cons have gained since the GE in both social grades in roughly equal measure, Labour has lost in both but far more C2DEs. Their drop in percentage terms in C2DE is double that of ABC1. The main beneficiaries are Con and UKIP.
However, that differential drop appears to have already occured before the referendum, currently it's falling equally. I suspect the social grade drift is more to do with Corbyn than the referendum.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I would have thought there are more Labour voters in London than there are voters in the whole of Wales.
The real issue is that if Labour try and concentrate on Remain voter support only they effectively kiss goodbye to every seat outside London, Manchester, West Yorkshire and Newcastle - although that is indeed where most of their voters live if we just judge by raw numbers.
I do disagree and do not believe that the vast majority of voters are anything like as Brexit obsessed as most commentators on here and elsewhere assume.
Many, many people are still tribal Labour even if they voted Leave. Do not think every Leave voter is "hard brexit". Just like any other elections, there are soft Leave and soft Remain. They may even constitute a third of the population.
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
Surely law applies where it has jurisdiction. Thus US citizens in the UK are subject to both the full force of British law, and simultaneously to all those parts of US law for which the US claims extraterritorality in relation to its citizens.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
I think there are quite a lot in holiday resorts and/or in ‘fashionable’ areas. One of the problems is the abysmal level of European (or indeed other) language take up in British schools. And no, I don’t blame the teachers. A regular subject on pharmaceutical chat boards is the possibilty of obtaining work in Europe and the difficulty in doing so, largely due to a perceived language problems.
English is the best language in the world!
(Remember: Sunil "J" Prasannan's mother tongue is NOT English!)
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
Surely law applies where it has jurisdiction. Thus US citizens in the UK are subject to both the full force of British law, and simultaneously to all those parts of US law for which the US claims extraterritorality in relation to its citizens.
But could not reasonably be arrested while in the UK for breaking laws claimed extraterritorially unless the same laws were an offence in the UK ?
Looking at the seats which changed hands between Conservative and Labour in 2015
Conservative gain from Labour Bolton W - Leave Morley - Leave Telford - Leave Derby N - Leave Corby (regain) - Leave Plymouth Moor View - Leave Southampton Itchen - Leave Gower - Leave ?? Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative Brentford - Remain Ealing Acton - Remain Enfield N - Remain Ilford N - Remain ?? Chester - Remain Dewsbury - Leave Hove - Remain Lancaster - Remain ?? Wirral W - Remain Wolverhampton SW - Leave
A striking result.
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
Its interesting that in 2015 the working class Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen swung to the Conservatives while the more middle class Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test swung to Labour.
While very middle class Exeter is now a Labour stronghold and also voted Remain.
Looking at the seats which changed hands between Conservative and Labour in 2015
Conservative gain from Labour Bolton W - Leave Morley - Leave Telford - Leave Derby N - Leave Corby (regain) - Leave Plymouth Moor View - Leave Southampton Itchen - Leave Gower - Leave ?? Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative Brentford - Remain Ealing Acton - Remain Enfield N - Remain Ilford N - Remain ?? Chester - Remain Dewsbury - Leave Hove - Remain Lancaster - Remain ?? Wirral W - Remain Wolverhampton SW - Leave
A striking result.
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
Its interesting that in 2015 the working class Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen swung to the Conservatives while the more middle class Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test swung to Labour.
While very middle class Exeter is now a Labour stronghold and also voted Remain.
The growth of the University has certainly helped Labour in Exeter, plus boundary changes have removed very Conservative Topsham and outlying villages.
Looking at the seats which changed hands between Conservative and Labour in 2015
Conservative gain from Labour Bolton W - Leave Morley - Leave Telford - Leave Derby N - Leave Corby (regain) - Leave Plymouth Moor View - Leave Southampton Itchen - Leave Gower - Leave ?? Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative Brentford - Remain Ealing Acton - Remain Enfield N - Remain Ilford N - Remain ?? Chester - Remain Dewsbury - Leave Hove - Remain Lancaster - Remain ?? Wirral W - Remain Wolverhampton SW - Leave
A striking result.
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
Its interesting that in 2015 the working class Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen swung to the Conservatives while the more middle class Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test swung to Labour.
While very middle class Exeter is now a Labour stronghold and also voted Remain.
Begs the question, "are there enough Guardian readers to win Labour a majority ? "
More seriously and Corbyn aside, Labour majorities rely on a coalition of middle-class twitterati and Guardianistas, ethnic voters and traditional working class. Brexit has thrown the conflicts of interest here into sharp relief, with the first and (newer) second being still both Labour and Remain, the more settled ethnic vote is easing toward the Tories (and given social conservatism will probably like May), and was more strongly Leave, and the traditional working class is rapidly losing patience with Labour and was quite strongly Leave.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
You mean the judge appointed by well-known liberal George W. Bush?
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I have seen reports that Bannon was behind the EO. He is many things, but he ain't stupid and will have surely been told this will be challenged and you are on shaky legal ground.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan? If the administration was simply about effectiveness, they could have just rehashed Obama's approach and slowed visa application from certain countries down to a tickle i.e. a ban in all but name.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I have seen reports that Bannon was behind the EO. He is many things, but he ain't stupid and will have surely been told this will be challenged and you are on shaky legal ground.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan?
Bannon wants to see the world burn.
He wants a right wing equivalent of Mao's permanent revolution.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I have seen reports that Bannon was behind the EO. He is many things, but he ain't stupid and will have surely been told this will be challenged and you are on shaky legal ground.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan?
Bannon wants to see the world burn.
He wants a right wing equivalent of Mao's permanent revolution.
But that is no good if your EO gets struck down in less than 7 days. You have to think he knew this would happen and there is some sort of longer term plan.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
You mean the judge appointed by well-known liberal George W. Bush?
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
Cool! A pity the next Presidential election isn't until 2020....
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
Try the resorts of southern Europe in May and June.
You mean Brits handing out flyers for discos in Ibiza?
1. That's a few thousand people. Tiny in the grand scheme
2. There's no reason why the jobs couldn't be advertised in the UK, and they go out with a job offer
Whoah. Apocalypse averted! That was close.
They are effectively people doing a bit of token work while getting a free holiday.
Perhaps the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have moved to Rotherham have done so for the weather and cultural delights.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
You mean the judge appointed by well-known liberal George W. Bush?
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
Remember Jonathan Pie. People no longer say what they think to pollsters and reporters, they have been trained to keep it to themselves until they are in the polling booths.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I would have thought there are more Labour voters in London than there are voters in the whole of Wales.
The real issue is that if Labour try and concentrate on Remain voter support only they effectively kiss goodbye to every seat outside London, Manchester, West Yorkshire and Newcastle - although that is indeed where most of their voters live if we just judge by raw numbers.
I do disagree and do not believe that the vast majority of voters are anything like as Brexit obsessed as most commentators on here and elsewhere assume.
Many, many people are still tribal Labour even if they voted Leave. Do not think every Leave voter is "hard brexit". Just like any other elections, there are soft Leave and soft Remain. They may even constitute a third of the population.
I think that is correct, so I don't see the Valleys seats falling anytime soon (although Bryant may struggle in the Rhondda against the right Plaid candidate, given what happened at the Assembly elections).
But, look at seats like Wrexham, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside and Clwyd South.
All strongly Leave with smallish Labour majorities over the Tories & largish UKIP votes.
It just needs tribal Labour supporters not to vote or to switch to UKIP, and these seats fall.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
You mean the judge appointed by well-known liberal George W. Bush?
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
Cool! A pity the next Presidential election isn't until 2020....
Blimey, enough time to make America Great and squeeze in a Noble Peace prize…
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Yep - a deal will be done and free movement will change around the edges. That will suit most people, except the hard right. But the UK and the EU need it each other, so they will have to suck it up.
Indeed. And judging by the White Paper, even these changes might not come in for several years, maybe 5, or even 7, or they will be phased in gradually.
We will barely notice a difference. Fewer Bulgarian rough sleepers in London, fewer British ski bums doing sod all in France. that's about it.
I must say I admire your confidence and ability to predict the future. Personally I am not so confident about these assumptions, far from it. Certainly there are underlying conditions that support a deal, ie the UK wants to preserve its ability for citizens to live and retire around Europe, and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London), and the EU countries particularly the Eastern European countries want to preserve the right to live and work in the UK particularly given the fact that they have gravitated towards here over the past two decades. But this won't result in 'free movement with a job offer', it will actually mean 'job offer leads to work permit', which is something completely different. Anyone who has actually tried to live or conduct a business within the EEA will recognise that the actual ability to live, buy property, start a business, access government services is predicated on exercising the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the EEA which we are now almost certainly leaving, which is what is going to make life really difficult for us.
I entirely accept that this twat was as likely to behave this way before the Brexit vote as after.
' Bloody foreigners ... You don’t deserve to be here': Vile solicitor launches racist tirade at against mum and young son on train
..He has “liked” Donald Trump on social media and posted articles about former UKIP leader Nigel Farage. His other social media “likes” include the English Defence League, the BNP, the Scottish BNP and various Scottish Conservative associations.'
I entirely accept that this twat was as likely to behave this way before the Brexit vote as after.
' Bloody foreigners ... You don’t deserve to be here': Vile solicitor launches racist tirade at against mum and young son on train
..He has “liked” Donald Trump on social media and posted articles about former UKIP leader Nigel Farage. His other social media “likes” include the English Defence League, the BNP, the Scottish BNP and various Scottish Conservative associations.'
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know by Brexit.
The only time I20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
Try the resorts of southern Europe in May and June.
You mean Brits handing out flyers for discos in Ibiza?
1. That's a few thousand people. Tiny in the grand scheme
2. There's no reason why the jobs couldn't be advertised in the UK, and they go out with a job offer
Whoah. Apocalypse averted! That was close.
It's more than a few thousand and it's more than handing out flyers, but that's by the by. They'll still continue to head south for the summer and any visas they need will be granted on site. The same will happen over here. As we agree, freedom of movement will only be affected at the edges.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
Try the resorts of southern Europe in May and June.
You mean Brits handing out flyers for discos in Ibiza?
1. That's a few thousand people. Tiny in the grand scheme
2. There's no reason why the jobs couldn't be advertised in the UK, and they go out with a job offer
Whoah. Apocalypse averted! That was close.
They are effectively people doing a bit of token work while getting a free holiday.
Perhaps the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have moved to Rotherham have done so for the weather and cultural delights.
Yep, a lot of young Brits use their right to live and work in the EU to earn cash and spend a few months each year in the sun. Good luck to them.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I have seen reports that Bannon was behind the EO. He is many things, but he ain't stupid and will have surely been told this will be challenged and you are on shaky legal ground.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan?
Bannon wants to see the world burn.
He wants a right wing equivalent of Mao's permanent revolution.
But that is no good if your EO gets struck down in less than 7 days. You have to think he knew this would happen and there is some sort of longer term plan.
There is, imho. To show to the base that the current law is problematic with respect to the security of the nation and therefore needs to be rewritten, no doubt in a hugely draconian fashion.
I entirely accept that this twat was as likely to behave this way before the Brexit vote as after.
' Bloody foreigners ... You don’t deserve to be here': Vile solicitor launches racist tirade at against mum and young son on train
..He has “liked” Donald Trump on social media and posted articles about former UKIP leader Nigel Farage. His other social media “likes” include the English Defence League, the BNP, the Scottish BNP and various Scottish Conservative associations.'
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Yep - a deal will be done and free movement will change around the edges. That will suit most people, except the hard right. But the UK and the EU need it each other, so they will have to suck it up.
Indeed. And judging by the White Paper, even these changes might not come in for several years, maybe 5, or even 7, or they will be phased in gradually.
We will barely notice a difference. Fewer Bulgarian rough sleepers in London, fewer British ski bums doing sod all in France. that's about it.
I must say I admire your confidence and ability to predict the future. Personally I am not so confident about these assumptions, far from it. Certainly there are underlying conditions that support a deal, ie the UK wants to preserve its ability for citizens to live and retire around Europe, and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London), and the EU countries particularly the Eastern European countries want to preserve the right to live and work in the UK particularly given the fact that they have gravitated towards here over the past two decades. But this won't result in 'free movement with a job offer', it will actually mean 'job offer leads to work permit', which is something completely different. Anyone who has actually tried to live or conduct a business within the EEA will recognise that the actual ability to live, buy property, start a business, access government services is predicated on exercising the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the EEA which we are now almost certainly leaving, which is what is going to make life really difficult for us.
People will travel as tourists, they will obtain visas on-site on the offer of a job. There will be limits to welfare access and anyone without a job will only be allowed to stay for 90 days or something like that.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I have seen reports that Bannon was behind the EO. He is many things, but he ain't stupid and will have surely been told this will be challenged and you are on shaky legal ground.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan?
Bannon wants to see the world burn.
He wants a right wing equivalent of Mao's permanent revolution.
But that is no good if your EO gets struck down in less than 7 days. You have to think he knew this would happen and there is some sort of longer term plan.
Looking at the seats which changed hands between Conservative and Labour in 2015
Conservative gain from Labour Bolton W - Leave Morley - Leave Telford - Leave Derby N - Leave Corby (regain) - Leave Plymouth Moor View - Leave Southampton Itchen - Leave Gower - Leave ?? Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative Brentford - Remain Ealing Acton - Remain Enfield N - Remain Ilford N - Remain ?? Chester - Remain Dewsbury - Leave Hove - Remain Lancaster - Remain ?? Wirral W - Remain Wolverhampton SW - Leave
A striking result.
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
Its interesting that in 2015 the working class Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen swung to the Conservatives while the more middle class Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test swung to Labour.
While very middle class Exeter is now a Labour stronghold and also voted Remain.
The growth of the University has certainly helped Labour in Exeter, plus boundary changes have removed very Conservative Topsham and outlying villages.
Certainly the boundary changes may have increased the Labour majority in Exeter by up to 2,000 votes in 2010 but there was a big swing to Labour in 2015.
Comparing the UKIP and combined LibDem and Green votes by constituency can give a rough idea of the working / middle class split.
For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour to keep costs down, and productivity is likely being affected in the medium to long term.
It would require a big concession to allow a large number of Eastern Europeans, who don't necessarily speak English and have few if any formal skills, to continue to come to this country; but at the same time restricting that access would mean looking producers in the eye and telling them that they've got to change, and on an accelerated timetable.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I have seen reports that Bannon was behind the EO. He is many things, but he ain't stupid and will have surely been told this will be challenged and you are on shaky legal ground.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan?
Bannon wants to see the world burn.
He wants a right wing equivalent of Mao's permanent revolution.
But that is no good if your EO gets struck down in less than 7 days. You have to think he knew this would happen and there is some sort of longer term plan.
He's looking for his base to be outraged. He wants an uprising. Is how I read it.
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
Surely law applies where it has jurisdiction. Thus US citizens in the UK are subject to both the full force of British law, and simultaneously to all those parts of US law for which the US claims extraterritorality in relation to its citizens.
But could not reasonably be arrested while in the UK for breaking laws claimed extraterritorially unless the same laws were an offence in the UK ?
My understanding is that the US/UK extradition treaty allows UK citizens to be deported and treated in ways which would be unlawful here, including length of sentence or comments which are contempt of court. In some high profile cases the person was living in the UK when he allegedly committed the offence, i.e. he remotely 'tested the security' of US government IT systems and found them wanting.
Similarly, the European Arrest Warrant allows UK citizens to be extradited for something they did in say Croatia. Even if it wouldn't be a crime at home.
Denmark opted out of the EAW. Did we? Not a chance.
It's more than a few thousand and it's more than handing out flyers, but that's by the by. They'll still continue to head south for the summer and any visas they need will be granted on site. The same will happen over here. As we agree, freedom of movement will only be affected at the edges.
A visa-on-arrival scheme is entirely likely, and happens in lots of countries if you have a British passport. There is VOA here in the Philippines for example, for British (and other) passport holders. Does that mean we have freedom of movement with those countries ? of course not.
A VOA scheme has three important differences.
Firstly it is typically for 2-3 months on arrival, and requires a visit to the local immigration office to extend it for a further 2-3 months, and (again typically) you can't extend past 18-28 months without leaving the country and re-entering. At each appearance at the immigration office they check if you have any derogatory records with the police or other public bodies and have the option to not extend your visa if you are starting to make a nuisance of yourself.
Secondly, the government of that country can vary those rules any time it feels like it, for any reason it feels like to suit its evolving economic and/or social circumstances. Something clearly not possible in a FoM area.
Thirdly you have to show your passport and have it stamped to get a VoA, if you have previously become persona non grata in that country for whatever reason (criminal record, terrorist associations, persistent bad debts or antisocial behavior - whatever the government decides), they dont issue you with a visa and you go home. Not something you can do in a FoM area.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Yep - a deal will be done and free movement will change around the edges. That will suit most people, except the hard right. But the UK and the EU need it each other, so they will have to suck it up.
Indeed. And judging by the White Paper, even these changes might not come in for several years, maybe 5, or even 7, or they will be phased in gradually.
We will barely notice a difference. Fewer Bulgarian rough sleepers in London, fewer British ski bums doing sod all in France. that's about it.
and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London)
This is where I think the assumptions are wrong.
The UK might 'need' large numbers of unskilled migrants while a trillion pounds of borrowed money is pumped into wealth consumption every decade.
But at some point the UK will have to live within its means.
And at that point the UK needs far fewer hand car washers, hotel chambermaids, cleaners, waiters, coffee baristas and sandwich makers.
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
I had been planning to do just that - up sticks and move to France to look for work - I ended up getting transferred to Paris by my employer, but it does happen. Young people often do teaching english to get by/settle in while looking for other work.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
You mean the judge appointed by well-known liberal George W. Bush?
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
Cool! A pity the next Presidential election isn't until 2020....
Blimey, enough time to make America Great and squeeze in a Noble Peace prize…
I'd love to see Ross Noble dishing out a peace prize....but I think even in his fantastically surreal mind, giving one to Donald Trump would be a stretch....
For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour to keep costs down, and productivity is likely being affected in the medium to long term.
It would require a big concession to allow a large number of Eastern Europeans, who don't necessarily speak English and have few if any formal skills, to continue to come to this country; but at the same time restricting that access would mean looking producers in the eye and telling them that they've got to change, and on an accelerated timetable.
I doubt agribusinesses profiteering from exploiting sweated immigrant workers and government subsidies will have that much sympathy.
And a few planning changes freeing up marginal agricultural land for housing development would be beneficial to most.
I had been planning to do just that - up sticks and move to France to look for work - I ended up getting transferred to Paris by my employer, but it does happen. Young people often do teaching english to get by/settle in while looking for other work.
EFL teachers wont have a problem with visas anywhere, even China seems to be handing them out like smarties at the moment.
Her authoritarian views (see also the big brother laws) is why I thought she was the wrong choice for PM. Sadly she had the overriding advantage of not being Angela Leadsom.
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
Try the resorts of southern Europe in May and June.
That won't change much since many such workers don't even have contracts. Cash is king on the costas
. Fewer Bulgarian rough sleepers in London, fewer British ski bums doing sod all in France. that's about it.
I must say I admire your confidence and ability to predict the future. Personally I am not so confident about these assumptions, far from it. Certainly there are underlying conditions that support a deal, ie the UK wants to preserve its ability for citizens to live and retire around Europe, and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London), and the EU countries particularly the Eastern European countries want to preserve the right to live and work in the UK particularly given the fact that they have gravitated towards here over the past two decades. But this won't result in 'free movement with a job offer', it will actually mean 'job offer leads to work permit', which is something completely different. Anyone who has actually tried to live or conduct a business within the EEA will recognise that the actual ability to live, buy property, start a business, access government services is predicated on exercising the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the EEA which we are now almost certainly leaving, which is what is going to make life really difficult for us.
People will travel as tourists, they will obtain visas on-site on the offer of a job. There will be limits to welfare access and anyone without a job will only be allowed to stay for 90 days or something like that.
This is not the same as free movement and there is no precedent for being able to obtain an 'on site visa' under the current arrangements, it all has to go through the nightmareish home office bureaucracy and none of this will change. Meaning that it is only the very low skilled jobs where no native labour is available, which employers would persevere through the bureaucracy involved.
My wife is from a wealthy EU nation, I would estimate that over the three and a half years we have lived in the UK we have obtained around £15k worth of welfare (ie non urgent medical treatment and statutory maternity pay) as a consequence of rights enshrined in the EEA. These are things we would be entitled to individually in our home countries but the EEA agreements mean that the entitlements are reciprocal. I am left with no illusion that this will carry on post Brexit. We will be okay, its the next generation who have been fucked.
"For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour "
When one of my newly graduated nephews (in Boston) was looking for work, I suggested he get a job on the land (via the gangs).
"Look at the advantages," I said. "Loads of fresh air, you get the see the world (well, Lincolnshire), and you can learn new languages like Lithuanian, Polish and Russian (they sometimes use that to communicate with each other)."
He wasn't persuaded. He's now working in a soil laboratory near Boston, but I did try.
We will be okay, its the next generation who have been fucked.
As you keep saying, and yet they didn't turn out to vote against it much. There seems to be an ongoing struggle with this democracy business with some on here at the moment. The young had exactly the same chance, with exactly the same value of vote to vote against brexit as the old did to vote for it.
You suggestion that they wont introduce a VoA scheme is pure conjecture by the way, compared to the other changes that will be required its extremely small beer.
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the
I would be wary of taking too much
But the LD-UKIP thing is real though, they are anti-parties. The LDs have twice the percentage of ABC1 as C2DE. UKIP have half the percentage of ABC1s compared to C2DE.
Nonetheless I think it does mark a shift, now the political class divide is not between Tories and Labour as it was 50 years ago but Leavers and Remainers and most markedly UKIP and LD voters
Not Leavers and Remainers per se, but the underlying value sets.
Looking at my figures i'd say the Yougov polls show the Cons have gained since the GE in both social grades in roughly equal measure, Labour has lost in both but far more C2DEs. Their drop in percentage terms in C2DE is double that of ABC1. The main beneficiaries are Con and UKIP.
However, that differential drop appears to have already occured before the referendum, currently it's falling equally. I suspect the social grade drift is more to do with Corbyn than the referendum.
It is a combination of both, the Tories have gained with both UKIP and Labour Leavers as May is more socially conservative and now backed Brexit unlike Cameron while Corbyn has lost middle class Remainers to the LDs as he is less Europhile than Miliband and carried on the trend of Miliband of losing blue collar Labour voters to the Tories and UKIP.
And those liberal judges have played right into his hands - again
Donald J Trump When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
You mean the judge appointed by well-known liberal George W. Bush?
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
Cool! A pity the next Presidential election isn't until 2020....
No but if the trend continues the Democrats are set for big gains in the 2018 midterms given Trump is already less popular than Reagan, Clinton and Obama who all suffered heavy losses in their first midterms (W Bush didn't but 9/11 took his approval ratings into the stratosphere by the time of the 2002 midterms)
. Fewer Bulgarian rough sleepers in London, fewer British ski bums doing sod all in France. that's about it.
I must say I admire your confidence and ability to predict the future. Personally I am not so confident about these assumptions, far from it. Certainly there are underlying conditions that support a deal, ie the UK wants to preserve its ability for citizens to live and retire around Europe, and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London), and the EU countries particularly the Eastern European countries want to preserve the right to live and work in the UK particularly given the fact that they have gravitated towards here over the past two decades. But this won't result in 'free movement with a job offer', it will actually mean 'job offer leads to work permit', which is something completely different. Anyone who has actually tried to live or conduct a business within the EEA will recognise that the actual ability to live, buy property, start a business, access government services is predicated on exercising the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the EEA which we are now almost certainly leaving, which is what is going to make life really difficult for us.
People will travel as tourists, they will obtain visas on-site on the offer of a job. There will be limits to welfare access and anyone without a job will only be allowed to stay for 90 days or something like that.
This is not the same as free movement and there is no precedent for being able to obtain an 'on site visa' under the current arrangements, it all has to go through the nightmareish home office bureaucracy and none of this will change. Meaning that it is only the very low skilled jobs where no native labour is available, which employers would persevere through the bureaucracy involved.
My wife is from a wealthy EU nation, I would estimate that over the three and a half years we have lived in the UK we have obtained around £15k worth of welfare (ie non urgent medical treatment and statutory maternity pay) as a consequence of rights enshrined in the EEA. These are things we would be entitled to individually in our home countries but the EEA agreements mean that the entitlements are reciprocal. I am left with no illusion that this will carry on post Brexit. We will be okay, its the next generation who have been fucked.
The next generation can always seek to rejoin the EU. Assuming it still exists and they can be bothered enough to vote.
. Fewer Bulgarian rough sleepers in London, fewer British ski bums doing sod all in France. that's about it.
I must say I admire your confidence and ability to predict the future. Personally I am not so confident about these assumptions, far from it. Certainly there are underlying conditions that support a deal, ie the UK wants to preserve its ability for citizens to live and retire around Europe, and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London), and the EU countries particularly the Eastern European countries want to preserve the right to live and work in the UK particularly given the fact that they have gravitated towards here over the past two decades. But this won't result in 'free movement with a job offer', it will actually mean 'job offer leads to work permit', which is something completely different. Anyone who has actually tried to live or conduct a business within the EEA will recognise that the actual ability to live, buy property, start a business, access government services is predicated on exercising the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the EEA which we are now almost certainly leaving, which is what is going to make life really difficult for us.
People will travel as tourists, they will obtain visas on-site on the offer of a job. There will be limits to welfare access and anyone without a job will only be allowed to stay for 90 days or something like that.
This is not the same as free movement and there is no precedent for being able to obtain an 'on site visa' under the current arrangements, it all has to go through the nightmareish home office bureaucracy and none of this will change. Meaning that it is only the very low skilled jobs where no native labour is available, which employers would persevere through the bureaucracy involved.
My wife is from a wealthy EU nation, I would estimate that over the three and a half years we have lived in the UK we have obtained around £15k worth of welfare (ie non urgent medical treatment and statutory maternity pay) as a consequence of rights enshrined in the EEA. These are things we would be entitled to individually in our home countries but the EEA agreements mean that the entitlements are reciprocal. I am left with no illusion that this will carry on post Brexit. We will be okay, its the next generation who have been fucked.
The next generation can always seek to rejoin the EU. Assuming it still exists and they can be bothered enough to vote.
We are never going to rejoin the EU now, the EEA maybe but not the EU
I for one would be happy with free movement even WITHOUT a job offer so long as it was movement to support yourself (either via work or savings for retirees who don't need jobs etc) and there would be no support from the government.
No tax credits, no housing for benefit etc. If you can support yourself then good for you.
I see McMao is out and about today trying to push Labour's mega £500m borrowing investment idea, with the new spin that they would spend it in the North.
For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour to keep costs down, and productivity is likely being affected in the medium to long term.
It would require a big concession to allow a large number of Eastern Europeans, who don't necessarily speak English and have few if any formal skills, to continue to come to this country; but at the same time restricting that access would mean looking producers in the eye and telling them that they've got to change, and on an accelerated timetable.
I doubt agribusinesses profiteering from exploiting sweated immigrant workers and government subsidies will have that much sympathy.
And a few planning changes freeing up marginal agricultural land for housing development would be beneficial to most.
Some are big businesses sure. But migrant labour is a fact of life for a lot of middleholders as well. It can easily become exploitative but quite apart from that it is not a satisfactory basis going forward.
It's more than a few thousand and it's more than handing out flyers, but that's by the by. They'll still continue to head south for the summer and any visas they need will be granted on site. The same will happen over here. As we agree, freedom of movement will only be affected at the edges.
A visa-on-arrival scheme is entirely likely, and happens in lots of countries if you have a British passport. There is VOA here in the Philippines for example, for British (and other) passport holders. Does that mean we have freedom of movement with those countries ? of course not.
A VOA scheme has three important differences.
Firstly it is typically for 2-3 months on arrival, and requires a visit to the local immigration office to extend it for a further 2-3 months, and (again typically) you can't extend past 18-28 months without leaving the country and re-entering. At each appearance at the immigration office they check if you have any derogatory records with the police or other public bodies and have the option to not extend your visa if you are starting to make a nuisance of yourself.
Secondly, the government of that country can vary those rules any time it feels like it, for any reason it feels like to suit its evolving economic and/or social circumstances. Something clearly not possible in a FoM area.
Thirdly you have to show your passport and have it stamped to get a VoA, if you have previously become persona non grata in that country for whatever reason (criminal record, terrorist associations, persistent bad debts or antisocial behavior - whatever the government decides), they dont issue you with a visa and you go home. Not something you can do in a FoM area.
This is how pretty much the rest of the world works with regard to British passport holders. You get a "Visit" visa on arrival for 30-90 days depending on the country, then you have to either get a job offer for a "Resident" visa or else leave and re-enter the country - when as you say they check that you're not wanted or have outstanding fines for overstaying etc. It works well in practice, even if it's annoying to do a day trip somewhere every month when in between jobs. Oh, and of course no-one anywhere pays unemployment or any other benefits to foreigners.
Not sure any of this will affect the Brits in Ibiza for the summer though, they'll just do whatever they do on tourist visas. It would affect the reps employed by the holiday companies though, they're recruited and employed properly.
I for one would be happy with free movement even WITHOUT a job offer so long as it was movement to support yourself (either via work or savings for retirees who don't need jobs etc) and there would be no support from the government.
No tax credits, no housing for benefit etc. If you can support yourself then good for you.
For me the key point is the ability to throw out undesirables, which means in due course we are going to have to do something about Article 5. We currently have over 100,000 failed asylum seekers in the UK, that have exhausted their appeals but we can't get out of the country because of Article 5, similarly its only a matter of time before we get another Abu Hamza debacle.
"House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi made a vigorous but ultimately futile argument on Friday to keep student artwork hanging near the Capitol that portrays police as pigs, noting other politically themed paintings remain on the wall.
I entirely accept that this twat was as likely to behave this way before the Brexit vote as after.
' Bloody foreigners ... You don’t deserve to be here': Vile solicitor launches racist tirade at against mum and young son on train
..He has “liked” Donald Trump on social media and posted articles about former UKIP leader Nigel Farage. His other social media “likes” include the English Defence League, the BNP, the Scottish BNP and various Scottish Conservative associations.'
For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour to keep costs down, and productivity is likely being affected in the medium to long term.
It would require a big concession to allow a large number of Eastern Europeans, who don't necessarily speak English and have few if any formal skills, to continue to come to this country; but at the same time restricting that access would mean looking producers in the eye and telling them that they've got to change, and on an accelerated timetable.
Hasn't the government already said that they will be willing to offer visas for upto six months for seasonal workers?
This way the farms get their produce picked, the workers get to earn more on six months here than they could in 12 at home and since the number of people leaving at the end of the season should match the number who arrived at the start then net migration is unaffected. Everybody wins.
Oh and it's the system we had in place before the EU.
"House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi made a vigorous but ultimately futile argument on Friday to keep student artwork hanging near the Capitol that portrays police as pigs, noting other politically themed paintings remain on the wall.
She needs to keep the base enthused and motivated for 2018 as in midterms normally only a third of voters turn out. For example they turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012 but not 2010 and 2014 she needs them to turn out in 2018 to protest against Trump
For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour to keep costs down, and productivity is likely being affected in the medium to long term.
It would require a big concession to allow a large number of Eastern Europeans, who don't necessarily speak English and have few if any formal skills, to continue to come to this country; but at the same time restricting that access would mean looking producers in the eye and telling them that they've got to change, and on an accelerated timetable.
Hasn't the government already said that they will be willing to offer visas for upto six months for seasonal workers?
This way the farms get their produce picked, the workers get to earn more on six months here than they could in 12 at home and since the number of people leaving at the end of the season should match the number who arrived at the start then net migration is unaffected. Everybody wins.
Oh and it's the system we had in place before the EU.
It is "being considered" although I think the proposal is actually for an expansion of the scheme we had for Romanians and Bulgarians prior to the transitional controls being lifted - SAWS.
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.
Quite. I know lots and lots of people, and I meet lots and lots of people on my travels in Europe and around the world.
I don't know a single Brit who has gone to continental Europe in the "hope" of finding a job. Not one. The Brits I meet, living in Europe, tend to be wealthy retirees, or students, or people running a business. None of them will be affected by Brexit.
The only time I encounter Brits abroad looking for work is in places like Asia, Australia, South America, USA (mainly students on a gap year, or 20-somethings trying to find themselves). Never in Europe.
Try the resorts of southern Europe in May and June.
British seasonal workers in southern Europe should be picking potatoes in Lincolnshire instead to show their patriotism.
Herdson - "In 2015, 33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs."
In the meantime Lib Dem members have doubled by recruiting remainers.
So if the number of LD leavers was 10,000 out of 30,000 in 2015, it is now 10,000 out of 60,000. The number of Lib Dem leavers could have stayed the same.
Pecentages eh!
The Lib Dems polled 8% in the 2015 GE. They're currently polling about 10-11%. The doubling of members is not reflected in their support in polling.
There's also a lot of churn to the Lib Dem figures. Their retention rate is typically even lower than Labour's or UKIP's: the most recent YouGov had only 46% of 2015GE Lib Dems sticking with their party, compared with 52% for Lab, 54% for UKIP and 73% for Con (including losses to DK and WNV). However, while the LDs have lost about 1 in 7 votes to both Con and LD, these are more than made up by those going the other way, in particular the 8% of Lab voters now voting LD.
Comments
Does it mean being Conservative influenced people towards voting Leave in 2016 or
Leave thinking people were influenced to vote Conservative in 2015?
Woodford Green I had as Leave similarly to Chingford and Wanstead as Remain similarly to Leyton.
So with all these assumptions that resulted in Ilford N being probably Remain. But it could easily have been Leave. Hainault would have voted Leave.
The Guardian (if still in existence) is probably going to go back to promoting the Liberal Democrats, seeing them as the best chance of returning to the EU fold - but to many Labour supporters they are seen as traitors for lying in bed with the Tories and picking up fleas.
In a nutshell - the left is basically a headless chicken - or a two-headed snake. No matter how much they scream at each other, the tories or how many cars they burn, lectures and discussions they scream down or tories they kick and punch, they will never be able to get a coherent message over and rally round one or the other party.
https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/827651061221453824
One of the problems is the abysmal level of European (or indeed other) language take up in British schools. And no, I don’t blame the teachers.
A regular subject on pharmaceutical chat boards is the possibilty of obtaining work in Europe and the difficulty in doing so, largely due to a perceived language problems.
I think it is more likely that it is roughly 45/55, not a million miles away from the GE popular vote result. I doubt people have radically changed their mind about this in less than 7 days.
Personally even 42% in favour is surprisingly high for a country built on immigration. If before all of this you would have asked me, I would have thought more like 33/66% for/against bans on immigration.
This short thread aptly demonstrates: How journalists should do their job and clearly don't... https://t.co/WpkNFfXukL
The single best response to the UC Berkeley riot. https://t.co/R17JjlR8kf
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02/egyptian-terrorist-louvre-carrying-paint-bombs-destroy-wests-famous-art-collection/
Looking at my figures i'd say the Yougov polls show the Cons have gained since the GE in both social grades in roughly equal measure, Labour has lost in both but far more C2DEs. Their drop in percentage terms in C2DE is double that of ABC1. The main beneficiaries are Con and UKIP.
However, that differential drop appears to have already occured before the referendum, currently it's falling equally. I suspect the social grade drift is more to do with Corbyn than the referendum.
As I was saying before I was so rudely interrupted… https://t.co/Hu6ashiKzI https://t.co/VC5c6DYCeu
Oh no! I have fallen victim to Plato's copy and paste campaign.
(Remember: Sunil "J" Prasannan's mother tongue is NOT English!)
Donald J Trump
When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot , come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &.security - big trouble!
While very middle class Exeter is now a Labour stronghold and also voted Remain.
https://twitter.com/jbernstien/status/827216877780946945
More seriously and Corbyn aside, Labour majorities rely on a coalition of middle-class twitterati and Guardianistas, ethnic voters and traditional working class. Brexit has thrown the conflicts of interest here into sharp relief, with the first and (newer) second being still both Labour and Remain, the more settled ethnic vote is easing toward the Tories (and given social conservatism will probably like May), and was more strongly Leave, and the traditional working class is rapidly losing patience with Labour and was quite strongly Leave.
There seems to be nothing that is not a win for Trump. It's astonishing the polling shows he is the most unpopular recently-inaugursted president in history.
I wonder what his plan is? Simply to make it a us vs them issue or does he has a longer term plan? If the administration was simply about effectiveness, they could have just rehashed Obama's approach and slowed visa application from certain countries down to a tickle i.e. a ban in all but name.
He wants a right wing equivalent of Mao's permanent revolution.
"L'Etat, c'est moi!"
Perhaps the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have moved to Rotherham have done so for the weather and cultural delights.
But, look at seats like Wrexham, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside and Clwyd South.
All strongly Leave with smallish Labour majorities over the Tories & largish UKIP votes.
It just needs tribal Labour supporters not to vote or to switch to UKIP, and these seats fall.
Certainly there are underlying conditions that support a deal, ie the UK wants to preserve its ability for citizens to live and retire around Europe, and large sectors of the economy need unskilled migrants (probably including prets in London), and the EU countries particularly the Eastern European countries want to preserve the right to live and work in the UK particularly given the fact that they have gravitated towards here over the past two decades. But this won't result in 'free movement with a job offer', it will actually mean 'job offer leads to work permit', which is something completely different.
Anyone who has actually tried to live or conduct a business within the EEA will recognise that the actual ability to live, buy property, start a business, access government services is predicated on exercising the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the EEA which we are now almost certainly leaving, which is what is going to make life really difficult for us.
' Bloody foreigners ... You don’t deserve to be here': Vile solicitor launches racist tirade at against mum and young son on train
..He has “liked” Donald Trump on social media and posted articles about former UKIP leader Nigel Farage. His other social media “likes” include the English Defence League, the BNP, the Scottish BNP and various Scottish Conservative associations.'
https://tinyurl.com/jomrf2a
My son works for a Danish Pharmaceutical company and tends to travel all over the world .
His languages skills are on a par with mine, and I'd settle for having the command of the English language that the Danes have.
Why pander to the foreigners' inadequacies? You only need to learn English
*runs and hides*
Comparing the UKIP and combined LibDem and Green votes by constituency can give a rough idea of the working / middle class split.
Plymouth Moor View 21.5%, 5.4%
Southampton Itchen 13.4%, 7.8%
Plymouth Sutton 14.0%, 11.3%
Southampton Test 12.8%, 10.8%
Exeter 9.4%, 10.8%
It would require a big concession to allow a large number of Eastern Europeans, who don't necessarily speak English and have few if any formal skills, to continue to come to this country; but at the same time restricting that access would mean looking producers in the eye and telling them that they've got to change, and on an accelerated timetable.
Similarly, the European Arrest Warrant allows UK citizens to be extradited for something they did in say Croatia. Even if it wouldn't be a crime at home.
Denmark opted out of the EAW. Did we? Not a chance.
A VOA scheme has three important differences.
Firstly it is typically for 2-3 months on arrival, and requires a visit to the local immigration office to extend it for a further 2-3 months, and (again typically) you can't extend past 18-28 months without leaving the country and re-entering. At each appearance at the immigration office they check if you have any derogatory records with the police or other public bodies and have the option to not extend your visa if you are starting to make a nuisance of yourself.
Secondly, the government of that country can vary those rules any time it feels like it, for any reason it feels like to suit its evolving economic and/or social circumstances. Something clearly not possible in a FoM area.
Thirdly you have to show your passport and have it stamped to get a VoA, if you have previously become persona non grata in that country for whatever reason (criminal record, terrorist associations, persistent bad debts or antisocial behavior - whatever the government decides), they dont issue you with a visa and you go home. Not something you can do in a FoM area.
The UK might 'need' large numbers of unskilled migrants while a trillion pounds of borrowed money is pumped into wealth consumption every decade.
But at some point the UK will have to live within its means.
And at that point the UK needs far fewer hand car washers, hotel chambermaids, cleaners, waiters, coffee baristas and sandwich makers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30154290
And a few planning changes freeing up marginal agricultural land for housing development would be beneficial to most.
My wife is from a wealthy EU nation, I would estimate that over the three and a half years we have lived in the UK we have obtained around £15k worth of welfare (ie non urgent medical treatment and statutory maternity pay) as a consequence of rights enshrined in the EEA. These are things we would be entitled to individually in our home countries but the EEA agreements mean that the entitlements are reciprocal. I am left with no illusion that this will carry on post Brexit. We will be okay, its the next generation who have been fucked.
"For me, one of the biggest decisions facing the government will be migrant labour in the agricultural sphere. To my mind the sector has become too reliant on migrant labour "
When one of my newly graduated nephews (in Boston) was looking for work, I suggested he get a job on the land (via the gangs).
"Look at the advantages," I said. "Loads of fresh air, you get the see the world (well, Lincolnshire), and you can learn new languages like Lithuanian, Polish and Russian (they sometimes use that to communicate with each other)."
He wasn't persuaded. He's now working in a soil laboratory near Boston, but I did try.
You suggestion that they wont introduce a VoA scheme is pure conjecture by the way, compared to the other changes that will be required its extremely small beer.
Laurie Penny is now a Nazi collaborater
Laurie Penny is getting cannibalized for talking with some Milo attendees and not immediately dehumanizing them https://t.co/qbZHuVz0A7
The comments are gold
No tax credits, no housing for benefit etc. If you can support yourself then good for you.
borrowinginvestment idea, with the new spin that they would spend it in the North.Not sure any of this will affect the Brits in Ibiza for the summer though, they'll just do whatever they do on tourist visas. It would affect the reps employed by the holiday companies though, they're recruited and employed properly.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4191156/University-evacuated-student-concocts-explosive.html
NEW THREAD
"House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi made a vigorous but ultimately futile argument on Friday to keep student artwork hanging near the Capitol that portrays police as pigs, noting other politically themed paintings remain on the wall.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pelosi-loses-in-2-1-vote-to-ban-embattled-student-artwork/article/2613875?custom_click=rss
This way the farms get their produce picked, the workers get to earn more on six months here than they could in 12 at home and since the number of people leaving at the end of the season should match the number who arrived at the start then net migration is unaffected. Everybody wins.
Oh and it's the system we had in place before the EU.
There's also a lot of churn to the Lib Dem figures. Their retention rate is typically even lower than Labour's or UKIP's: the most recent YouGov had only 46% of 2015GE Lib Dems sticking with their party, compared with 52% for Lab, 54% for UKIP and 73% for Con (including losses to DK and WNV). However, while the LDs have lost about 1 in 7 votes to both Con and LD, these are more than made up by those going the other way, in particular the 8% of Lab voters now voting LD.