The right to be an EU citizen and to live and work wherever I like in the EU is not a right I ever wanted nor one that I will miss. I expect most of my fellow voters would also take that view.
That's OK, because what we've gained - "sovereignty" - is entirely illusory anyway. As the White Paper laughingly confirms, Parliament was always sovereign but it didn't feel like that. So that feeling justifies the whole damn thing.
I value having a legislature that is accountable to British voters alone.
And your values won by a slender majority. But let's not pretend there's any logic to any of it. It's all feelings and attitudes and emotions, as HMG has usefully confirmed.
There is as much logic to it as there is to the argument to Remain.
Those who seek to characterise Leave voters as mad, bad, or stupid, are demonstrating plenty of feelings, attitudes and emotions, and anything but rationality.
I wasn't talking only about Leavers. Sensitive much?
If that is so, your post didn't make that clear.
I can agree there are strong emotions on both sides.
I thought the use of the word "any" made it pretty clear.
Good article. If Labour lose the upcoming parliamentary by elections to more pro Brexit parties ie in Copeland to the Tories and Stoke to UKIP then Corbyn can justifiably say the answer is not a more Europhile leader if anything a pro Leave Labour MP like Gisela Stewart or Frank Field would seem a better alternative. Only if the LDs take either seat can the Europhile wing of Labour really see a loss in either seat as a boost to their cause
As a proportion of the British population, their numbers are very small. The notion that there are huge numbers of us commuting to our jobs and second homes on the Continent or spending months chilling in Amsterdam is fantasy.
There are significant numbers. Maybe not millions, but hundreds of thousands. Resorts across southern Europe fill out every summer with young Brits doing temporary work. And they tend not to be upper middle class.
Hundreds of thousands living across a continent that is made of our nearest neighbours that we have free movement with versus well over a million living thousands of miles away on the opposite side of the globe that requires a visa from "an Australian-style points based immigration system" to get into. Actually THE Australian system not just style.
Clearly these hundreds of thousands locally are small fry and even if they needed to get a visa like the over a million in Oz needed to get they would be able to get it.
Exactly. The numbers of British nationals living and working in Anglophone countries that impose immigration controls far exceed the numbers on the Continent, suggesting that if you have the skills foreign countries want, it's not too difficult to live and work abroad.
But wasn't Brexit supposed to be about increasing the life chances of people with fewer skills?
Clearly, Brexit means making it much harder for unskilled working class people of all agrs to spend part of the year living and working in Europe. To be fair, I suspect that this is an aspect of life that well-off, privileged Brexiteers know very little about.
As a proportion of the British population, their numbers are very small. The notion that there are huge numbers of us commuting to our jobs and second homes on the Continent or spending months chilling in Amsterdam is fantasy.
There are significant numbers. Maybe not millions, but hundreds of thousands. Resorts across southern Europe fill out every summer with young Brits doing temporary work. And they tend not to be upper middle class.
Hundreds of thousands living across a continent that is made of our nearest neighbours that we have free movement with versus well over a million living thousands of miles away on the opposite side of the globe that requires a visa from "an Australian-style points based immigration system" to get into. Actually THE Australian system not just style.
Clearly these hundreds of thousands locally are small fry and even if they needed to get a visa like the over a million in Oz needed to get they would be able to get it.
Exactly. The numbers of British nationals living and working in Anglophone countries that impose immigration controls far exceed the numbers on the Continent, suggesting that if you have the skills foreign countries want, it's not too difficult to live and work abroad.
But wasn't Brexit supposed to be about increasing the life chances of people with fewer skills?
It was about many things to many different people. That is why it is fiendishly difficult.
A friend of mine has recently been fined £15,000 by the Home Office for employing an Algerian to wash the dishes in his cafe for a few hours on a Saturday night.
Ever consider that your friend is helping people make desperately dangerous trips at the mercy of people smugglers, quite possibly dying in the process. So they can wash his dishes.
Do you ever think that just maybe, your friend has those floating corpses in the Med on his conscience? Thought not. There's a bloody good reason the state fines employers for taking on people who are prepared to break all the rules and illegally gain access to this country. And don't even get me started on how that fvcks up the asylum system for those truly in need of help.
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this isnal flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
That's a crap reason. It's a tyranny of the majority. By the same token I can think of lots of interesting referendum questions..... Shall we confiscate Philip Green's billions and give them to the NHS?
Outside the EU, you'll still be free to mix with other rich people in France, and avoid mixing with the lower classes in this country, so what's your problem?
I dunno why Rog hangs around in old blighty. He'd be far happier becoming a citizen of Monaco.
Roger is very representative of a certain sort of urban, upper-middle class, left-wing Englishman who hates his own country.
No, I think he only hates aspects of his own country, and loves other parts. In that way he is no different to the rest of us. We just vary over the aspects that we hate. All patriots are like that. Look at how Trump hates some aspects of his own country for example, including most of his home city.
And the intensity of that hate (I would question whether most people go from disliking bits to hating bits). And whether one acknowledges any good bits.
The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
Roger, is this not an argument for the reimposition of Empire? I spent 4 glorious years of early childhood in Malta before the EU, and was perfectly free to move there ...
As a proportion of the British population, their numbers are very small. The notion that there are huge numbers of us commuting to our jobs and second homes on the Continent or spending months chilling in Amsterdam is fantasy.
There are significant numbers. Maybe not millions, but hundreds of thousands. Resorts across southern Europe fill out every summer with young Brits doing temporary work. And they tend not to be upper middle class.
Hundreds of thousands living across a continent that is made of our nearest neighbours that we have free movement with versus well over a million living thousands of miles away on the opposite side of the globe that requires a visa from "an Australian-style points based immigration system" to get into. Actually THE Australian system not just style.
Clearly these hundreds of thousands locally are small fry and even if they needed to get a visa like the over a million in Oz needed to get they would be able to get it.
Exactly. The numbers of British nationals living and working in Anglophone countries that impose immigration controls far exceed the numbers on the Continent, suggesting that if you have the skills foreign countries want, it's not too difficult to live and work abroad.
But wasn't Brexit supposed to be about increasing the life chances of people with fewer skills?
Clearly, Brexit means making it much harder for unskilled working class people of all agrs to spend part of the year living and working in Europe. To be fair, I suspect that this is an aspect of life that well-off, privileged Brexiteers know very little about.
Given that working class people backed Brexit by a big margin, it's probably not a big issue for them.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
As much "In name only" as possible?
It's a legitimate view for people to take, though clearly would not satisfy a great many.
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
Maltese women are the only European nationality with higher BMI than UK, but apart from that I agree. Brexit Britons will have narrower horizons.
I haven't been to Malta for years but returning from France the differnce in obeisity is extraordinary. If you see a very large person in the environs of Nice the chances are they're English. Considering most Britons are slaves to fitbit it's surprising
Obesity in Britain is heavily class related, though all SE are fatter than tbey used to be.
Middle aged Mediterraneans are a bit podgy, but fat young people on the Med are almost always British or Irish. Our Continental cousins have more healthy lifestyles.
The additives that go into US food products - corn syrup? - have a direct impact on obesity levels there. When they tell us what trade deal we can have, allowing these will be part of the package.
Do British people have to buy these products ?
No, but they will sell well. Britons just love sugary, fatty, salty easily digested pap.
We don't need to wait for a US-UK trade deal to buy them!
There's a very funny meme on Twitter about Brits view of Amercan breakfasts - this is typical
Mr. Roger, if only some sort of travel had been possible before the EU existed.
It's not about travel; it's about the Brexitards turning their backs on a broader European identity and the lifelong mobility and freedom that went with it.
I have a nephew who wanted to go to university in Spain. Will he still be able to? Probably, but it might be more expensive and complicated so he might not bother and he'll just have his horizons broadened in Hull instead of Seville.
I have a friend who wanted to retire in France and bought a house for that purpose. Will he still be able to do it? Probably not, the health insurance costs for non-EU residents in France have put that beyond him and his wife.
But it's all worth it because something, something, something sovreignty.
Let's wait and see what the deal is before assuming the worst. Certainly I have heard that the property market has already suffered much in France as the 'expat punters' have melted away but that is not quite the same here in Spain where things are continuing [very slowly] to improve. Regarding healthcare it is probable that deals will be made for existing retirees and possibly for new ones too. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
As a proportion of the British population, their numbers are very small. The notion that there are huge numbers of us commuting to our jobs and second homes on the Continent or spending months chilling in Amsterdam is fantasy.
There are significant numbers. Maybe not millions, but hundreds of thousands. Resorts across southern Europe fill out every summer with young Brits doing temporary work. And they tend not to be upper middle class.
Hundreds of thousands living across a continent that is made of our nearest neighbours that we have free movement with versus well over a million living thousands of miles away on the opposite side of the globe that requires a visa from "an Australian-style points based immigration system" to get into. Actually THE Australian system not just style.
Clearly these hundreds of thousands locally are small fry and even if they needed to get a visa like the over a million in Oz needed to get they would be able to get it.
Exactly. The numbers of British nationals living and working in Anglophone countries that impose immigration controls far exceed the numbers on the Continent, suggesting that if you have the skills foreign countries want, it's not too difficult to live and work abroad.
But wasn't Brexit supposed to be about increasing the life chances of people with fewer skills?
Clearly, Brexit means making it much harder for unskilled working class people of all agrs to spend part of the year living and working in Europe. To be fair, I suspect that this is an aspect of life that well-off, privileged Brexiteers know very little about.
Given that working class people backed Brexit by a big margin, it's probably not a big issue for them.
Turnout was lowest among working class voters; but, of course, most will be unaffected. Many will be, though. Basically, your claim that freedom of movement is only really an issue for the upper middle class is nonsense. You seem to see it as being second homes and wealthy commuters - basically an issue for a relatively small number of privileged metropolitans who deserve everything they get - but there is a lot more to it than that. Millions of Brits make use of it - either permanently or temporarily. That's why a deal will be done and things will basically remain as they are.
Are there any recent surveys on attitudes to the EU? Is there a large constituency of voters who feel "passionately enthusiastic about the EU." How many would consider working in the EU? How many would consider working in the Anglosphere? Where would students prefer to continue their studies?
Not quite the same but according to Wikipedia ( I know) there was a survey done about 12 years ago on Brits living abroad. Now it's out of date, pre financial crash etc but there are some interesting figures in it ( can't link - technology hopeless, sorry). Spain was top EU country with 761k, France was 200k Germany was a bit over 100k. However, USA, Canada, S Africa, NZ, and Ireland were all ahead of France and top of the pile was Australia with 1.2M.
No details I could see on when these folk had left for foreign parts, or how long they had been there and that my show some interesting trends ( has there been a surge of under 30's opting for the EU over the English speaking world over the past 20 years or is it just oldies buggering off to sit in the sun and drink agreeable red in retirement whilst young keen IT professionals head for California?) Dunno. But 1.2M in Australia and 115k in Germany - The EU never went to our hearts really did it (Roger clearly excepted!)? Roger is dead right about the glories of European cities of course, and I see no reason not to potter about in future in them, but how many people really think "yup, Duessdorf. That's where I dream of spending my life, in comparison Bondi beach just has no appeal". Some but not many I venture.
I posted some of the ONS figures earlier. If you'd like the full report, it's here.
Released on January 27th, 2017, though the data is mostly from Eurostat's 2011 numbers. I think it provides a bit more perspective on who's where, and (possibly) what they're up to. Based on > 12 month residency though.
I've deepest sympathy with @nielh's post though. I've never been one of the Panglossian Brexiteers. It's really a question of whether the politics or pragmatism win out. It's down to the intrepid Mrs May and her numberless minions now.
Wow. That says there's only about 300k in Spain and that's the top destination.
IIRC more Poles live in UK than total Brits in rest of EU.
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
I presume then that Leavers would have no objection then if the EU finds a way to offer some sort of continued EU citizenship to those that want it?
Anyway, I need to get off. I part with the observation that Theresa May inMalta finally got round to the approach to EU negotiations that she should have adopted last summer, if she wants a reasonably successful outcome. Which is to identify areas of common interest. Playing hardball is counterproductive in our current situation.
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
I presume then that Leavers would have no objection then if the EU finds a way to offer some sort of continued EU citizenship to those that want it?
Why would we? If the USA or Israel or any other nation wants to offer citizenship that is their right too.
The Trump administration's commitment to transparency, a vignette... http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/trump-administration-blacks-out-animal-welfare-information The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today removed public access to tens of thousands of reports that document the numbers of animals kept by research labs, companies, zoos, circuses, and animal transporters—and whether those animals are being treated humanely under the Animal Welfare Act. Henceforth, those wanting access to the information will need to file a Freedom of Information Act request. The same goes for inspection reports under the Horse Protection Act, which prohibits injuring horses’ hooves or legs for show.
The agency said in a statement that it revoked public access to the reports “based on our commitment to being transparent … and maintaining the privacy rights of individuals.”
So next step, the Hollywood luvvies co-ordinate a campaign for a million Freedom of Information requests a day on every animal they can think of.
A month later, the Trump administration says it is having to suspend ALL Freedom of Information requests because the system is broken..... And those opposing his Govt. lose a key tool of scrutiny.
On one level, you have to admire how these people are operating.
Whilst on another, thinking WTF???
The U.S. has a Federal Freedom of Information Act dating back to 1966 so suspensions of it could be challenged in court
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
I presume then that Leavers would have no objection then if the EU finds a way to offer some sort of continued EU citizenship to those that want it?
Personally no objection at all. Surely that's a matter for them really? We could hardly tell them not to do it if they wanted to. Question is why would they want to do that given we wouldn't be reciprocating?
. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
As much "In name only" as possible?
It's a legitimate view for people to take, though clearly would not satisfy a great many.
Would "In name only" be Jeremy Bentham's " greatest happiness of the greatest number"?
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
As much "In name only" as possible?
There is much about Europe I love - not least living in Spain - it does annoy me the way the EU is fixed on the FOM as an absolute which means that benefits have to be exported from the UK to the family of say a Polish plumber. Just plain crazy and one of the key reasons they lost the referendum. Nor is it really sustainable given the huge difference in GDPs within the EU nations. I lament the fact that the EU was so inflexible in negotiations with DC, but we are where we are.
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
Ah. That would be a problem. U.K. Law would have to have precedence in the UK.
Anyway, I need to get off. I part with the observation that Theresa May inMalta finally got round to the approach to EU negotiations that she should have adopted last summer, if she wants a reasonably successful outcome. Which is to identify areas of common interest. Playing hardball is counterproductive in our current situation.
I think that she has realised that supping with the EU27 is far more congenial than the unpredictable and tempramental POTUS.
Mr. Roger, if only some sort of travel had been possible before the EU existed.
It's not about travel; it's about the Brexitards turning their backs on a broader European identity and the lifelong mobility and freedom that went with it.
I have a nephew who wanted to go to university in Spain. Will he still be able to? Probably, but it might be more expensive and complicated so he might not bother and he'll just have his horizons broadened in Hull instead of Seville.
I have a friend who wanted to retire in France and bought a house for that purpose. Will he still be able to do it? Probably not, the health insurance costs for non-EU residents in France have put that beyond him and his wife.
But it's all worth it because something, something, something sovreignty.
Let's wait and see what the deal is before assuming the worst. Certainly I have heard that the property market has already suffered much in France as the 'expat punters' have melted away but that is not quite the same here in Spain where things are continuing [very slowly] to improve. Regarding healthcare it is probable that deals will be made for existing retirees and possibly for new ones too. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
How do people do that, then? Asking for a friend.
Do what? If the last point then the obvious call at the moment is to show a united front and quit some of the sillier sniping from the sidelines. I think there remains a fair bit of goodwill on both sides to do a reasonable deal.
What do PB punters think of Rebecca Long-Bailey? Tipped by Stephen Bush on Staggers blog as a likely left candidate after Corbyn. I have placed a few quid on her to try and stay green across the field.
Mr. Roger, if only some sort of travel had been possible before the EU existed.
It's not about travel; it's about the Brexitards turning their backs on a broader European identity and the lifelong mobility and freedom that went with it.
I have a nephew who wanted to go to university in Spain. Will he still be able to? Probably, but it might be more expensive and complicated so he might not bother and he'll just have his horizons broadened in Hull instead of Seville.
I have a friend who wanted to retire in France and bought a house for that purpose. Will he still be able to do it? Probably not, the health insurance costs for non-EU residents in France have put that beyond him and his wife.
But it's all worth it because something, something, something sovreignty.
Both will be fine. A deal will be done. We'll trade access for sovereignty; free movement will essentially remain in place. Thank-you President Trump.
May could offer a job offer requirement and the White Paper talks about a skills gap focus for taking I EU migrants but she will not leave free movement exactly as now hence we are leaving the single market
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
I presume then that Leavers would have no objection then if the EU finds a way to offer some sort of continued EU citizenship to those that want it?
I wouldn't object - but it would either be very expensive for the EU to say guarantee free healthcare to Brits abroad or a very high fee to get it, or to be little other than a meaningless platitude with no important rights guaranteed.
Mr. Roger, if only some sort of travel had been possible before the EU existed.
It's not about travel; it's about the Brexitards turning their backs on a broader European identity and the lifelong mobility and freedom that went with it.
I have a nephew who wanted to go to university in Spain. Will he still be able to? Probably, but it might be more expensive and complicated so he might not bother and he'll just have his horizons broadened in Hull instead of Seville.
I have a friend who wanted to retire in France and bought a house for that purpose. Will he still be able to do it? Probably not, the health insurance costs for non-EU residents in France have put that beyond him and his wife.
But it's all worth it because something, something, something sovreignty.
Both will be fine. A deal will be done. We'll trade access for sovereignty; free movement will essentially remain in place. Thank-you President Trump.
May could offer a job offer requirement and the White Paper talks about a skills gap focus for taking I EU migrants but she will not leave free movement exactly as now hence we are leaving the single market
Not as it is, I agree. There will be some largely cosmetic changes and they will come in over a relatively long transition period.
What do PB punters think of Rebecca Long-Bailey? Tipped by Stephen Bush on Staggers blog as a likely left candidate after Corbyn. I have placed a few quid on her to try and stay green across the field.
She'll need MP nominations first. That may be tricky. The coalition that brought Corbyn to power is fracturing. I am not sure he gets to annoint his successor now. I'd say she's a long shot.
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
Ah. That would be a problem. U.K. Law would have to have precedence in the UK.
It was actually Denmark that apparently opted out of the growing EU legal land-grab after a 2015 referendum. The UK didn't.
I don't know what this affects. Danish law isn't, er, discussed much by the BBC.
What do PB punters think of Rebecca Long-Bailey? Tipped by Stephen Bush on Staggers blog as a likely left candidate after Corbyn. I have placed a few quid on her to try and stay green across the field.
Mike and I backed her at 66/1.
I plan to do a thread on her either today or tomorrow explaining why she's still value at 40/1.
Mr. Owl, depends whether (as suggested) those citizens would then be subject to EU over British law. British citizens cannot be permitted to opt out of Common Law.
Ah. That would be a problem. U.K. Law would have to have precedence in the UK.
It was actually Denmark that apparently opted out of the growing EU legal land-grab after a 2015 referendum. The UK didn't.
I don't know what this affects. Danish law isn't, er, discussed much by the BBC.
. As to your last point I voted remain but this is happening because we are a democratic nation and a clear majority voted to Leave. Now is the time for everyone to make it the best deal we can.
As much "In name only" as possible?
There is much about Europe I love - not least living in Spain - it does annoy me the way the EU is fixed on the FOM as an absolute which means that benefits have to be exported from the UK to the family of say a Polish plumber. Just plain crazy and one of the key reasons they lost the referendum. Nor is it really sustainable given the huge difference in GDPs within the EU nations. I lament the fact that the EU was so inflexible in negotiations with DC, but we are where we are.
After Trump's first two weeks I am far more relaxed than I was. A deal will be done because it is in both sides' interests. Neither the UK nor the EU can rely on the goodwill of the unpredictable, lying, thin-skinned narcissist now in the White House.
Are there any recent surveys on attitudes to the EU? Is there a large constituency of voters who feel "passionately enthusiastic about the EU." How many would consider working in the EU? How many would consider working in the Anglosphere? Where would students prefer to continue their studies?
Not quite the same but according to Wikipedia ( I know) there was a survey done about 12 years ago on Brits living abroad. Now it's out of date, pre financial crash etc but there are some interesting figures in it ( can't link - technology hopeless, sorry). Spain was top EU country with 761k, France was 200k Germany was a bit over 100k. However, USA, Canada, S Africa, NZ, and Ireland were all ahead of France and top of the pile was Australia with 1.2M.
No details I could see on when these folk had left for foreign parts, or how long they had been there and that might show some interesting trends ( has there been a surge of under 30's opting for the EU over the English speaking world over the past 20 years or is it just oldies buggering off to sit in the sun and drink agreeable red in retirement whilst young keen IT professionals head for California?) Dunno. But 1.2M in Australia and 115k in Germany - The EU never went to our hearts really did it (Roger clearly excepted!)? Roger is dead right about the glories of European cities of course, and I see no reason not to potter about in future in them, but how many people really think "yup, Duessdorf. That's where I dream of spending my life, in comparison Bondi beach just has no appeal". Some but not many I venture.
In terms of living abroad yes but most people have never travelled outside Europe and the U.S., about half have never travelled outside Europe and about 10% have never left the UK. If they move abroad it tends to be to Australia but for their summer holiday most Brits go to Spain if they are going abroad
What do PB punters think of Rebecca Long-Bailey? Tipped by Stephen Bush on Staggers blog as a likely left candidate after Corbyn. I have placed a few quid on her to try and stay green across the field.
Mike and I backed her at 66/1.
I plan to do a thread on her either today or tomorrow explaining why she's still value at 40/1.
Good stuff. I must be getting prescient. Shame that didn't work during POTUS election.
What do PB punters think of Rebecca Long-Bailey? Tipped by Stephen Bush on Staggers blog as a likely left candidate after Corbyn. I have placed a few quid on her to try and stay green across the field.
Mike and I backed her at 66/1.
I plan to do a thread on her either today or tomorrow explaining why she's still value at 40/1.
F1: still about three weeks until testing. Saw an interesting tweet about Renault wanting to have an iconic partnership with Hulkenberg. Indicates both long-term aspirations and that Palmer will be a de facto number two.
I do think Renault could achieve that, but it'll take time. They won't be in a winning position this year simply because they have too much ground to make up and need more personnel. It's possible they will be in good shape in 2-3 years, maybe challenging for podium places next year.
Hope they can do it. A change would be good, and I rate Hulkenberg.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I don't either but the figures for Labour Remainers are well over 70% yet the Labour constituencies are apparently well over 70% Leave
Because Labour's vote distribution of remainders, like its vote share generally, is grossly inefficient and piled up big in a few constituencies?
I'm guessing Scotland may also skew it somewhat - I would have thought almost all leavers in Scotland were Conservative with a minority (like our own MalcolmG) from the SNP.
However, I have just made the bold assumption that there are still Labour voters in Scotland!
ydoethur, they are getting as rare as Tories these days
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
I presume then that Leavers would have no objection then if the EU finds a way to offer some sort of continued EU citizenship to those that want it?
Personally no objection at all. Surely that's a matter for them really? We could hardly tell them not to do it if they wanted to. Question is why would they want to do that given we wouldn't be reciprocating?
£250/year, 10 million people is a good part of the hole in the EU finances filled
What do PB punters think of Rebecca Long-Bailey? Tipped by Stephen Bush on Staggers blog as a likely left candidate after Corbyn. I have placed a few quid on her to try and stay green across the field.
Mike and I backed her at 66/1.
I plan to do a thread on her either today or tomorrow explaining why she's still value at 40/1.
Good stuff. I must be getting prescient. Shame that didn't work during POTUS election.
Bugger, Mike's tweets have buggered up the prices.
Not sure if you can get an account/how much you can stake, but she's 33/1 with 188 bet
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
There has been some UKIP and Labour Leavers to Tory movement since 2015 but also some Tory to LD movement by Tory Remainers too. Hence the Tories lost Richmond Park but could gain Copeland
Mr. Roger, if only some sort of travel had been possible before the EU existed.
It's not about travel; it's about the Brexitards turning their backs on a broader European identity and the lifelong mobility and freedom that went with it.
I have a nephew who wanted to go to university in Spain. Will he still be able to? Probably, but it might be more expensive and complicated so he might not bother and he'll just have his horizons broadened in Hull instead of Seville.
I have a friend who wanted to retire in France and bought a house for that purpose. Will he still be able to do it? Probably not, the health insurance costs for non-EU residents in France have put that beyond him and his wife.
But it's all worth it because something, something, something sovreignty.
Both will be fine. A deal will be done. We'll trade access for sovereignty; free movement will essentially remain in place. Thank-you President Trump.
May could offer a job offer requirement and the White Paper talks about a skills gap focus for taking I EU migrants but she will not leave free movement exactly as now hence we are leaving the single market
Not as it is, I agree. There will be some largely cosmetic changes and they will come in over a relatively long transition period.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I don't either but the figures for Labour Remainers are well over 70% yet the Labour constituencies are apparently well over 70% Leave
Because Labour's vote distribution of remainders, like its vote share generally, is grossly inefficient and piled up big in a few constituencies?
I'm guessing Scotland may also skew it somewhat - I would have thought almost all leavers in Scotland were Conservative with a minority (like our own MalcolmG) from the SNP.
However, I have just made the bold assumption that there are still Labour voters in Scotland!
ydoethur, they are getting as rare as Tories these days
Surely they are considerably rarer?
Or are they just more embarrassed about it and keep it to themselves?
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
How often do the majority of people travel outside the UK. One, perhaps twice, a year and then to a beach resort.
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
Why are we having that taken from us by the votes of people who are not affected whether we remain in or get out?
Because we live in a democracy?
That's a crap reason. It's a tyranny of the majority. By the same token I can think of lots of interesting referendum questions..... Shall we confiscate Philip Green's billions and give them to the NHS?
And there we have it!
We're both Remainers, only one of us is also a democrat.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same with ABC1s as with C2DEs so there is now no class difference between support for the Tories or Labour. However the LDs are third with ABC1s and UKIP third with C2DEs so there is a class difference between LD and UKIP voters with LD voters more middle-class and UKIP voters more working class
It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
They will be the same people who oppose gun bans in schools because of grizzly bear attacks.
It is very hard to cure stupidity, particularly willful stupidity.
Herdson - "In 2015, 33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs."
In the meantime Lib Dem members have doubled by recruiting remainers.
So if the number of LD leavers was 10,000 out of 30,000 in 2015, it is now 10,000 out of 60,000. The number of Lib Dem leavers could have stayed the same.
This is just perfect irony re Nazi stuff - Jake Shields has shown how to be a brave guy and face these thugs down. That he's an accomplished MMA fighter helps his confidence...
Jake Shields
The aftermath of me helping a guy after being jumped by thugs. The police and 100's of civilians stood and watched. https://t.co/7hN2iJ4kkf
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
There will still be unlimited migration rights for UK citizens to the EU after Brexit.
How could there not be after we've been told so many times that immigration benefits countries.
So the EU will surely have no restrictions on immigration from the UK.
And if they do that could only mean either the EU is wilfully damaging itself out of site (and who would want to have EverCloserUnion in such an organisation) or that unrestricted immigration is not the universal boon we've been told it is.
It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I don't either but the figures for Labour Remainers are well over 70% yet the Labour constituencies are apparently well over 70% Leave
Because Labour's vote distribution of remainders, like its vote share generally, is grossly inefficient and piled up big in a few constituencies?
I'm guessing Scotland may also skew it somewhat - I would have thought almost all leavers in Scotland were Conservative with a minority (like our own MalcolmG) from the SNP.
However, I have just made the bold assumption that there are still Labour voters in Scotland!
ydoethur, they are getting as rare as Tories these days
Surely they are considerably rarer?
Or are they just more embarrassed about it and keep it to themselves?
They are interchangeable nowadays so hard to tell.
Herdson - "In 2015, 33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs."
In the meantime Lib Dem members have doubled by recruiting remainers.
So if the number of LD leavers was 10,000 out of 30,000 in 2015, it is now 10,000 out of 60,000. The number of Lib Dem leavers could have stayed the same.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
What we're seeing is yet another example of the 'Cameron Project'.
Middle class metropolitans were the target group of the 'Cameron Project' - remember 'vote Blue go Green'.
But the Conservatives have gone backwards in the cities (outside the 'Bankerland' of West London) while its the working class industrial and coastal areas which have swung rightwards.
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to s from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same with ABC1s as with C2DEs so there is now no class difference between support for the Tories or Labour. However the LDs are third with ABC1s and UKIP third with C2DEs so there is a class difference between LD and UKIP voters with LD voters more middle-class and UKIP voters more working class
I'd expect to see the Tories hold seats like Wells, Yeovil, Somerton, North Devon, Torbay very easily at the next election, but the Lib Dems to challenge very strongly in SW London, and places like Bath and Cheadle, and achieve big swings in seats like Guildford and Winchester.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
What we're seeing is yet another example of the 'Cameron Project'.
Middle class metropolitans were the target group of the 'Cameron Project' - remember 'vote Blue go Green'.
But the Conservatives have gone backwards in the cities (outside the 'Bankerland' of West London) while its the working class industrial and coastal areas which have swung rightwards.
There should be potential for the Conservatives in big urban areas that voted Leave.
For hammering a much-divided planet into finally agreeing on one thing - how much they all hate him?
Stranger things have happened...
LOL, that could actually be a good bet. The Donald is shaking things up, be interesting to see how it all ends up. Time we stopped these bleeding heart liberal elite pulling all the strings and milking the people. They need to start listening rather than funding thugs and using other patsies to protest.
For hammering a much-divided planet into finally agreeing on one thing - how much they all hate him?
Stranger things have happened...
LOL, that could actually be a good bet. The Donald is shaking things up, be interesting to see how it all ends up. Time we stopped these bleeding heart liberal elite pulling all the strings and milking the people. They need to start listening rather than funding thugs and using other patsies to protest. So good I have to post it twice.
I brung you a massage: it seems to moo that the Remoaners are still remoaning this moaning!
Trump and Brexit has revitalised left wingers who had been outflanked on the bleeding heart front by Corbyn. They are now back in the comfort zone of victimhood
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Maybe they will make a few of the locals get off their butts and dish up the sarnies or or home grown unskilled make an effort.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same with ABC1s as with C2DEs so there is now no class difference between support for the Tories or Labour. However the LDs are third with ABC1s and UKIP third with C2DEs so there is a class difference between LD and UKIP voters with LD voters more middle-class and UKIP voters more working class
I would be wary of taking too much from this latest Yougov poll, many of the crossbreaks are naff and inconsistent with the other most recent Yougov polls.
The average social grade lead in the previous four polls, which are fairly internally consistent, is 15% ABC1 (41-26) and only 7% C2DE (34-27).
But the LD-UKIP thing is real though, they are anti-parties. The LDs have twice the percentage of ABC1 as C2DE. UKIP have half the percentage of ABC1s compared to C2DE.
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Yep - a deal will be done and free movement will change around the edges. That will suit most people, except the hard right. But the UK and the EU need it each other, so they will have to suck it up.
I know it's the Sun, but if half of it's true my admiration for Beckham's ability to synthesise the Mr Nice Guy image is considerable,
'UNLESS IT'S A KNIGHTHOOD, F*** OFF' David Beckham tried to use his UNICEF charity work to win a knighthood, explosive emails reveal
Initially refused to use his own money to fund his charity and turned down millions of pounds in work to raise money for UNICEF Demanded UNICEF pay for a £6685 business class flight despite his sponsors splashing out on a private jet Set up a sham segment on the Jonathan Ross chat show to raise the prospect of a knighthood Backed the “stay” campaign in the Scottish independence referendum to win favour with “the establishment” Moaned that his involvement in the Ingenious tax avoidance scheme was hampering his chances Raged when singer Katherine Jenkins was handed an OBE Wants to add to his fortune by being one of the first civilians to go into space'
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
I just don't see how this is consistent with the data in Wales.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
I would have thought there are more Labour voters in London than there are voters in the whole of Wales.
The real issue is that if Labour try and concentrate on Remain voter support only they effectively kiss goodbye to every seat outside London, Manchester, West Yorkshire and Newcastle - although that is indeed where most of their voters live if we just judge by raw numbers.
I do disagree and do not believe that the vast majority of voters are anything like as Brexit obsessed as most commentators on here and elsewhere assume.
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
Maltese women are the only European nationality with higher BMI than UK, but apart from that I agree. Brexit Britons will have narrower horizons.
I haven't been to Malta for years but returning from France the differnce in obeisity is extraordinary. If you see a very large person in the environs of Nice the chances are they're English. Considering most Britons are slaves to fitbit it's surprising
Obesity in Britain is heavily class related, though all SE are fatter than tbey used to be.
Middle aged Mediterraneans are a bit podgy, but fat young people on the Med are almost always British or Irish. Our Continental cousins have more healthy lifestyles.
The additives that go into US food products - corn syrup? - have a direct impact on obesity levels there. When they tell us what trade deal we can have, allowing these will be part of the package.
Do British people have to buy these products ?
They may have little choice. They will not only be permitted in imports from the US, they will be allowed in products currently sold here.
Not necessarily. It depends what the US asks for and what the UK government agreed to. Previously our beef industry was sacrificed to benefit German and Italian manufacturers by a central body. Now the government will be directly accountable to the peopke affected for their decisions. That is a good thing.
. Whether a seat voted Remain or Leave does not affect local or I suspect parliamentary outcomes. The Referendum is history to most folk and many are bored stiff hearing politicians, political betting and the media on both sides going on about it. The world is moving on in people minds, they feel they have much more to worry about, rising prices, inflation, high personal debt levels and interest rates rising soon.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
Looking at Yougov's numbers in detail, there does seem to be a process of sorting going on, due to Brexit. Current Conservative voters are more pro-Brexit than 2015 Conservative voters, whereas current Labour and Lib Dem voters are more pro-Remain than their voters from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same with ABC1s as with C2DEs so there is now no class difference between support for the Tories or Labour. However the LDs are third with ABC1s and UKIP third with C2DEs so there is a class difference between LD and UKIP voters with LD voters more middle-class and UKIP voters more working class
I would be wary of taking too much from this latest Yougov poll, many of the crossbreaks are naff and inconsistent with the other most recent Yougov polls.
The average social grade lead in the previous four polls, which are fairly internally consistent, is 15% ABC1 (41-26) and only 7% C2DE (34-27).
But the LD-UKIP thing is real though, they are anti-parties. The LDs have twice the percentage of ABC1 as C2DE. UKIP have half the percentage of ABC1s compared to C2DE.
Nonetheless I think it does mark a shift, now the political class divide is not between Tories and Labour as it was 50 years ago but Leavers and Remainers and most markedly UKIP and LD voters
It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
Are we allowed to call them stupid?
You can't allow ignorance to keep you silent.
Call them stupid if you like but objectively we've seen a few occasions recently where the liberal left have been losing while we think we're winning, and think we're being clever to boot. I certainly don't think we should be shy about opposing, but we also need some relentless messages that will reach people who didn't vote for the way we wanted.
TBF this one does have an incompetence angle, which is one of the key themes that we should be hitting the populists with, but I worry it's getting lost in the self-congratulatory irony.
Here's the thing. After Brexit, Brits will still be able to go and live and study and bring up families in Nice and the Netherlands, Valletta and Vienna, Gdansk and Denmark. Nearly all the things they do now they will be able to do in the future, as tourists, as students, as workers - and as retired ad executives on the Riviera. Just as EU tourists, skilled workers, students and retirees with money will still be welcome in the UK.
All that will change, the ONLY thing that will change, is that unskilled Brits won't be able to go to Europe without a job offer, and sit in, say, Antwerp, claiming benefits while they look for work.
Thats the only fucking difference. And, I ask you, how many Brits did that, went to Hamburg with zero cash and no job offer, and simply claimed the dole?
A few thousand? A few hundred maybe? Given our language skills, I'd say the figure is tiny.
Almost nothing will change for 95% of people. The only big change will be unskilled migrants with no job offers won't be able to come to the UK. So, no more Roma selling the Big Issue, and fewer Spaniards dishing up sarnies in Pret.
Forgive me if I don't howl with anguish at the fate of our once great continent.
Indeed.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence Tyson in Tuscany Felix has retired to Spain Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA Edmund in Japan Indigo in the Philippines Sandbox in Dubai MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
I know it's the Sun, but if half of it's true my admiration for Beckham's ability to synthesise the Mr Nice Guy image is considerable,
'UNLESS IT'S A KNIGHTHOOD, F*** OFF' David Beckham tried to use his UNICEF charity work to win a knighthood, explosive emails reveal
Initially refused to use his own money to fund his charity and turned down millions of pounds in work to raise money for UNICEF Demanded UNICEF pay for a £6685 business class flight despite his sponsors splashing out on a private jet Set up a sham segment on the Jonathan Ross chat show to raise the prospect of a knighthood Backed the “stay” campaign in the Scottish independence referendum to win favour with “the establishment” Moaned that his involvement in the Ingenious tax avoidance scheme was hampering his chances Raged when singer Katherine Jenkins was handed an OBE Wants to add to his fortune by being one of the first civilians to go into space'
Watching the 28 European leaders sailing through the port of Valletta was such a depressing sight. The EU meant that every citizen of the UK could not only visit but go to school in work in live in go to university in bring up a family in this beautiful city in Malta as easily as they could any town in Britain.
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
Maltese women are the only European nationality with higher BMI than UK, but apart from that I agree. Brexit Britons will have narrower horizons.
I haven't been to Malta for years but returning from France the differnce in obeisity is extraordinary. If you see a very large person in the environs of Nice the chances are they're English. Considering most Britons are slaves to fitbit it's surprising
Obesity in Britain is heavily class related, though all SE are fatter than tbey used to be.
Middle aged Mediterraneans are a bit podgy, but fat young people on the Med are almost always British or Irish. Our Continental cousins have more healthy lifestyles.
The additives that go into US food products - corn syrup? - have a direct impact on obesity levels there. When they tell us what trade deal we can have, allowing these will be part of the package.
Do British people have to buy these products ?
They may have little choice. They will not only be permitted in imports from the US, they will be allowed in products currently sold here.
Not necessarily. It depends what the US asks for and what the UK government agreed to. Previously our beef industry was sacrificed to benefit German and Italian manufacturers by a central body. Now the government will be directly accountable to the peopke affected for their decisions. That is a good thing.
As I understand it our beef industry was about to get a second rogering as part of the MERCOSUR trade deal with the EU where they got technical and engineering hardware (benefiting the Germans) and the EU got Argentine beef (screwing us, and ironically, the Euroenthusiasts north of the border).
It doesn't really matter that a majority of Corbyn's lost voters were for Leave or even that so many Labour seats are in Leave areas. Labour voters are by a large majority Remainers and by chasing the right wing straight banana vote he's just alienating his core supporters
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
You don't understand what Labour values are, do you? The clue is in the name: it's supposed to be the party of the working class. Not only should it reflect their opinion but if it is to have any future, it has a duty to do so.
Labour as it was is dead. It is now the doctors and teachers party. Indeed the Labour office in my constituency is in the most posh part of town.
Sure, and that's why it keeps losing.
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to s from 2015.
Yes, although that Con figure is substantially influenced by the UKIP-Con swing since 2015. 21% of 2015 UKIP voters now intending to vote Con; only 4% of Con voters going the other way.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
I think so, too. 16% of 2015 Lib Dems is about the same number as the 4% of 2015 Conservatives who've travelled in the opposite direction. I suspect the former are mostly in rural areas, the latter in SW London, the Stockbroker Belt, and well to do suburbs.
Interestingly yougov also has the Tory lead over Labour the same working class
I'd expect to see the Tories hold seats like Wells, Yeovil, Somerton, North Devon, Torbay very easily at the next election, but the Lib Dems to challenge very strongly in SW London, and places like Bath and Cheadle, and achieve big swings in seats like Guildford and Winchester.
The Tories could certainly lose seats like Twickenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Bath and Lewes to the LDs at the next election but gain seats like Barrow, Newcastle Under Lyme, Halifax and Bridgend from Labour
Thank you for the piece as always, David. Thought provoking but as usual much with which I disagree. As is the default on here these days, everything and everyone is viewed through the prism of June 23rd.
There is plenty of evidence it's not that important - I would argue had we voted REMAIN, Cameron would be enjoying equally healthy leads over Corbyn. The problem Labour has fundamentally is that while there are (I suspect) a number of people who could and would vote Labour in preference to the Conservatives, LDs, UKIP, Greens or whoever, they cannot and will not do so while a) Jeremy Corbyn is leader and b) the Party's evident fragmentation, ill-discipline and disunity continues.
As both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats can attest from experience, disunited (or parties appearing to be disunited) parties are frequently shunned by the electorate. I would argue the Conservative Party is as divided as ever on Europe but it has maintained the facade of unity under May.
Labour's disunity would matter less (once could argue there was plenty of division under Kinnock, Blair, Brown and Milliband) were it not for Corbyn. The relentless character assassination of Corbyn (mostly self inflicted it has to be said) has made him electoral poison for much of the country.
Given a forced choice, I would choose May over Corbyn and I'm no fan of the current Prime Minister and given a Government led by either the Conservative or Labour parties is all that's on offer for now, I can well understand the big Conservative poll leads.
Corbyn's replacement doesn't have to be Blair Mark 2 (even as May tries in vain to be Thatcher Mark 2 or is lauded as such by the Mail) and nor do I think it matters if they were for leaving the EU or not. All they need to do is change perceptions - first, that the Party is united, second that the Party, and here I'm picking my words carefully, is more in line with the British people. I've never, for example, had a problem with Corbyn talking to Hamas, the IRA or any other group, it's part of the democratic process - I have a problem with his unequivocal support for their aims especially if those aims are predicated on violence, terror and the deaths of British service men and women.
Condemning ALL violence is a coherent and credible position - desiring peaceful and diplomatic resolution to all conflicts is laudable - but the condemnation has to be equal and unequivocal. There are things Britain has done in wars which should be condemned but that is as nothing compared to what those fighting us have done to civilians and others. The sentiment is noble but the tone in which it is expressed needs to be carefully balanced and nuanced.- Corbyn fails miserably.
It's all fun and games but the result of all this will be 50 million people vaguely believing there was a thing called the Bowling Green Massacre perpetrated by refugees.
Are we allowed to call them stupid?
You can't allow ignorance to keep you silent.
Call them stupid if you like but objectively we've seen a few occasions recently where the liberal left have been losing while we think we're winning, and think we're being clever to boot. I certainly don't think we should be shy about opposing, but we also need some relentless messages that will reach people who didn't vote for the way we wanted.
TBF this one does have an incompetence angle, which is one of the key themes that we should be hitting the populists with, but I worry it's getting lost in the self-congratulatory irony.
Most people don't follow politics closely, so you're right that it may ave the opposite effect to that intended.
Comments
It would have been even more interesting to see the swing of votes since the 2010 election. My guess is that in England and Wales there'd still be a comfortable Leave majority among those who've stopped supporting Labour since then but that the numbers would be a good deal higher (Labour actually polled more votes in 2015 than 2010 but a lot of that was down to the LD-Lab swing. Obviously, special circumstances apply in Scotland.
But unless Labour can win these voters back - which means selling them a message that appeals to them, how are they supposed to win?
http://aquadoc.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341bf80a53ef01a5117fbc1d970c-pi
If only the poor had voted, we would have left
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3774/The-2016-EU-referendum-who-was-in-and-who-was-out.aspx?view=wide
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of EURef vote for the LD-Con switchers though. Suspect that Con have swept up a large proportion of the LD Leavers (33% of 2015 LDs thought it 'right to leave', only 16% of current LDs).
Definitely more fun.
I don't know what this affects. Danish law isn't, er, discussed much by the BBC.
I plan to do a thread on her either today or tomorrow explaining why she's still value at 40/1.
This was a great betting site once - still can be on the odd day.
Customer in long line at Caribou Coffee while Starbucks sits empty across the street https://t.co/Lc1vGX89SU
I do think Renault could achieve that, but it'll take time. They won't be in a winning position this year simply because they have too much ground to make up and need more personnel. It's possible they will be in good shape in 2-3 years, maybe challenging for podium places next year.
Hope they can do it. A change would be good, and I rate Hulkenberg.
Not sure if you can get an account/how much you can stake, but she's 33/1 with 188 bet
https://www.188bet.co.uk/en-gb/sports/specials/competition/outright
(you need to scroll down a bit)
I've got the tables and plan to do the afternoon thread on the next part of the polling, the politicians.
http://deadanimalremovers.com/dead-animal-removal/oh/bowling-green/remove-dead-squirrels
Or are they just more embarrassed about it and keep it to themselves?
We're both Remainers, only one of us is also a democrat.
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/827843194289274880
It is very hard to cure stupidity, particularly willful stupidity.
In the meantime Lib Dem members have doubled by recruiting remainers.
So if the number of LD leavers was 10,000 out of 30,000 in 2015, it is now 10,000 out of 60,000. The number of Lib Dem leavers could have stayed the same.
Pecentages eh!
Jake Shields
The aftermath of me helping a guy after being jumped by thugs. The police and 100's of civilians stood and watched. https://t.co/7hN2iJ4kkf
Stranger things have happened...
How could there not be after we've been told so many times that immigration benefits countries.
So the EU will surely have no restrictions on immigration from the UK.
And if they do that could only mean either the EU is wilfully damaging itself out of site (and who would want to have EverCloserUnion in such an organisation) or that unrestricted immigration is not the universal boon we've been told it is.
You can't allow ignorance to keep you silent.
Middle class metropolitans were the target group of the 'Cameron Project' - remember 'vote Blue go Green'.
But the Conservatives have gone backwards in the cities (outside the 'Bankerland' of West London) while its the working class industrial and coastal areas which have swung rightwards.
I brung you a massage: it seems to moo that the Remoaners are still remoaning this moaning!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/03/uk-honest-migrants-rights-brexit-britain
So good I have to post it twice.
The average social grade lead in the previous four polls, which are fairly internally consistent, is 15% ABC1 (41-26) and only 7% C2DE (34-27).
But the LD-UKIP thing is real though, they are anti-parties. The LDs have twice the percentage of ABC1 as C2DE. UKIP have half the percentage of ABC1s compared to C2DE.
'UNLESS IT'S A KNIGHTHOOD, F*** OFF' David Beckham tried to use his UNICEF charity work to win a knighthood, explosive emails reveal
Initially refused to use his own money to fund his charity and turned down millions of pounds in work to raise money for UNICEF
Demanded UNICEF pay for a £6685 business class flight despite his sponsors splashing out on a private jet
Set up a sham segment on the Jonathan Ross chat show to raise the prospect of a knighthood
Backed the “stay” campaign in the Scottish independence referendum to win favour with “the establishment”
Moaned that his involvement in the Ingenious tax avoidance scheme was hampering his chances
Raged when singer Katherine Jenkins was handed an OBE
Wants to add to his fortune by being one of the first civilians to go into space'
http://archive.is/iZO2C#selection-1655.0-1701.80
Conservative gain from Labour
Bolton W - Leave
Morley - Leave
Telford - Leave
Derby N - Leave
Corby (regain) - Leave
Plymouth Moor View - Leave
Southampton Itchen - Leave
Gower - Leave ??
Vale of Clwyd - Leave
Labour gain from Conservative
Brentford - Remain
Ealing Acton - Remain
Enfield N - Remain
Ilford N - Remain ??
Chester - Remain
Dewsbury - Leave
Hove - Remain
Lancaster - Remain ??
Wirral W - Remain
Wolverhampton SW - Leave
TBF this one does have an incompetence angle, which is one of the key themes that we should be hitting the populists with, but I worry it's getting lost in the self-congratulatory irony.
Lets take a look at the PB community and see how many are based in the EU.
Roger in Provence
Tyson in Tuscany
Felix has retired to Spain
Richard Dodds has retired to Italy
Any others ?
Not really that many considering that PBers tend to have above average education and so will be more in demand for international work.
Now how many PBers live outside the EU:
TimB and TimT in the USA
Edmund in Japan
Indigo in the Philippines
Sandbox in Dubai
MaxPB is moving to Switzerland
So more than those who have moved to EU countries.
Apologies to any PBers I've missed.