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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn is more in touch on Europe with the voters Labour needs to win back than his MPs or members
This has not been the best week for Jeremy Corbyn. He lost another Shadow Cabinet member and two other frontbench spokesmen, suffered a sizable rebellion on Europe (whereas, unlike one upon a time, the Tories presented an almost united front), prompting several thousand members to resign; yesterday’s YouGov poll confirmed that the Conservatives’ lead remains in the mid-teens, and Labour suffered a devastating local by-election loss in Rotherham, which the Lib Dems took on a 38% swing.
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AmericaNew Threads Great Again.Cheers Mr Herdson. – Corbyn appears to have a gift for alienating large chunks of his party, first the majority of the PLP, then the rump of party Remainers and now events threaten to upset his far left membership. - You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh….
It's not like any other neanderthal throwbacks with totally unacceptable views have done well recently is it?
If he stood up in the HoC and said 'We should leave the EU - and I've never liked it' he'd be believed, unlike the vast majority of politicians who are clearly doing this through gritted teeth.
Yes, it would cause a major pearl clutching in Islington (are you sure they have pearls? - ed) but in the country he would be believed.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/trump-administration-blacks-out-animal-welfare-information
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today removed public access to tens of thousands of reports that document the numbers of animals kept by research labs, companies, zoos, circuses, and animal transporters—and whether those animals are being treated humanely under the Animal Welfare Act. Henceforth, those wanting access to the information will need to file a Freedom of Information Act request. The same goes for inspection reports under the Horse Protection Act, which prohibits injuring horses’ hooves or legs for show.
The agency said in a statement that it revoked public access to the reports “based on our commitment to being transparent … and maintaining the privacy rights of individuals.”
Popularity comes and goes, and long held views can come in and out of fashion.
But an incompetent of limited intelligence is not going to become competent at the end of a long life of non achievement.
A month later, the Trump administration says it is having to suspend ALL Freedom of Information requests because the system is broken..... And those opposing his Govt. lose a key tool of scrutiny.
On one level, you have to admire how these people are operating.
Whilst on another, thinking WTF???
Nothing is more anathema to Labour values than watching their leader chase those with UKIP values and he shouldn't be surprised when he's treated like an unprincipled pariah.
There is a lot of scope for electoral popularity for an independent Red Brexit, with unlimited state intervention in industries, protective tarrifs and strong protection of workers from foreign competitio.
I completely agree with your points - though I'd probably temper that to more of a Blue Labour position. Delors persuaded UK Labour that the EU would protect workers from the Anglo-American economic model. Prior to that Labour were vehemently eurosceptic (this is from memory) - didn't they campaign to leave in '83?
Famously described by Hattersley as the longest suicide note in history, but perhaps just 35 years early.
(* I feel somewhat personally about this because SHAC used to protest outside our office as a former subsidiary of the business - which we'd sold - had a big stake in HLS. And as a healthcare guy they assumed I was responsible...)
Proportion of constituencies held by each party according to likely referendum outcome
(From: here)
To have had a future where Rome Venice Florence Paris Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen and Vienna were as accessible as Hartlipool Bradford Grimsby Rotherham and Clacton and to have had it taken away was a crime.
Im surprised the young people of this country didn't rise up in rebellion against their selfish ignorant parents and grandparents.
Perhaps as they watch their children follow them into a life of obeisity in their cultural wasteland they might just pause for thought.
Incidentally, what is going happen to those British students who have enrolled at Maastricht Uni? Presumably those there will be able to finish, but what about anyone thinkimng of applying now?
Permanent Residence
Permanent Residence is open to everyone, no matter what your country of origin is. If you’re not from the EU then this is what you need to apply for. You can also apply for this scheme if you are from the EU
https://www.gov.mt/en/life events/moving-to-malta/pages/moving-to-malta.aspx
Mr. Herdson, 'tis ironic that a rare area where Corbyn's more in touch with the people than the PLP are is one that's causing him so much dissent.
Mr. Roger, if only some sort of travel had been possible before the EU existed.
I am not sure that calling those with whom you disagree 'selfish ignorant' is necessarily persuasive. Perhaps better than 'basket of deplorables', though.
I responded that if turnout had been as high among the young as among the old, Remain would almost certainly have won.
With luck, that has impressed the importance of voting when given the chance on the whole class.
Amongst those is that he appears far too political. And therefore a bit odd. Not someone to talk about the weather with. Believe it or not relatively few of us are animated by the Palestinian situation or Marxism.
He, despite his best efforts, is condrmnef to be one of them, not one of us.
Ed had the same problem.
Don't be defensive. I visited Huntingdon Research Centre about twenty years or so ago and had a tour. It was well laid out, the animal facilities were superb and the staff were animal lovers.
Having come in through a line of protesters (as was the norm then), I asked why they didn't offer a tour to the protestors.
"We tried it once," they said. "95% of the visitors were impressed and complimentary. The other 5% refused to even look, they came in to complain and then went off to inform the media that they'd visited the Animal Dachau and it was even worse than they'd described."
Fake News isn't a new thing.
so basically Roger youre a seventies voyeur
:-)
We got off lightly - there were other people who were bombed
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/oct/25/animal-research-animal-welfare
Fortunately, that seems to have died down.
There seems to be a hard core of activists who can never be convinced. Facts will be what they want them to be.
Trump may be barmy, but whatever he does now will always be a cause for protest. That 5% have bought a season ticket for the outrage bus and intend to get their money's worth.
I suspect that will only make him more stubborn. "What's the point of listening to these people?" he'll say, and he'll have a point.
Edit: And it's that 5% who will receive all the publicity and set the agenda.
You seem to think that there was nothing good before the EU and nothing good outside it. It's a view. But not a very intelligent or cultured one.
Every Labour seat in Wales (except Cardiff) voted Leave.
The Remain supporting areas are the seats held by the LibDems (Ceredigion), PC (Arfon & Meirionnydd) and the Tories (Vale of Glamorgan & Monmouthshire).
For instance if university students and graduates were more likely to vote than those in manual occupations.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/oct/25/animal-research-animal-welfare
What should Labour do? A competent leader would by now have laid out his objectives for Britain's future relationship with the EU, drawing on Labour's internationalist tradition and stressing the need for continuing to work closely together both at a state level and at a human level. He would be stressing the need to protect existing workers (both in Britain and abroad) and seeking a settlement for the workers not the bankers, challenging the EU to approach negotiations on the same way - a Brexit for the people, not a card game behind closed doors between politicians.
The problem, as usual, for Labour is right at the top.
The real issue is that if Labour try and concentrate on Remain voter support only they effectively kiss goodbye to every seat outside London, Manchester, West Yorkshire and Newcastle - although that is indeed where most of their voters live if we just judge by raw numbers.
Let's look at the data from the ONS. Sadly it's based on 2011 Eurostat data so hardly finger-on-the-pulse stuff.
There were 83k British kids (i.e. <15 years) living in the EU27. About 90k 15-29 year olds. Let's be generous and assume they're all students. There are roughly 500k 29-64 year olds. Let's assume they're all workers. There are 190k pensioners (if we assume everyone still retires @ 65). Of those, the bulk* (101k) are in Spain.
For the Brits, permanent emigration is a minority sport. Or rather, emigration to Europe is a minority sport. The British diaspora is still out into the Anglosphere.
Dig a little deeper, and we (as you might expect) live mostly in Spain, France, Ireland and Germany. A steep drop below that.
The UK passport is the #3 in the world for visa free travel. I don't expect that to change. I also expect us to remain part of Erasmus. British wanderlust is not going to be put back in the bottle until Ryanair et al go bust. Clacton, my arse.
As for the rest, wot @Cyclefree said.
* Oops. Pedants, have mercy. Let's call it 'just over half'
There's a difference between visiting various cities in the world and being able to work in them as easily as you can your local Tesco. A friend of mine has recently been fined £15,000 by the Home Office for employing an Algerian to wash the dishes in his cafe for a few hours on a Saturday night.
Perhaps when you were working and travelling we were either in the EU or the rules were more lax then?
Anecdotally however I would have said university students were less likely to vote than manual workers, simply because university students can be quite mind-blowingly childish, thoughtless and irresponsible in a way that it simply isn't possible to be if you are working for a living. Happy to be proven wrong if anyone has any data to the contrary.
I also made the point that a lower turnout in Scotland probably had a bearing, but in mitigation the Scots must be utterly sick of referendums.
I'm guessing Scotland may also skew it somewhat - I would have thought almost all leavers in Scotland were Conservative with a minority (like our own MalcolmG) from the SNP.
However, I have just made the bold assumption that there are still Labour voters in Scotland!
You and I live in a world where people travel across borders and work internationally all the time. I've taken, and this is not a boast, just an observation, 18 international flights so far this year. I don't think I have much in common with the voters of Hartlepool, Grimsby, Clayton et al. To be honest, I'm pleased that I don't, but equally their vote in a national referendum is worth as much as mine.
https://tinyurl.com/z6fqxxm
The student dominated wards are Newnham, Castle & Market, which do have the lowest percentage turnouts.
The utter contempt Roger has for the working classes of this country is breathtaking. His unconfined and self-serving elitism, arrogance and snobbery belong in the 18th century.
Population still ageing
Globalisation still accelerating.
Internet and technology still disrupting traditional jobs
Trump still turning the world upside down.
And Britain paralyzed by bloody Brexit.
1. Labour gained Dinnington from UKIP because the Lib Dems did no work at all in the ward concentrating on Brinsworth. If they had it would almost certainly have been different, probably a 30% turnout against 19%.. Where they work they seem to win, ie Sunderland and others.
2. Brinsworth is not in isolation and follows the same familiar pattern of Labour to Lib Dem since the Autumn. The scale has been building steadily. The omens are for the same at Stoke Central. (Why the media hug UKIP is a mystery, their vote is just tumbling week by week and I suspect the same again at Stoke)
3. Whether a seat voted Remain or Leave does not affect local or I suspect parliamentary outcomes. The Referendum is history to most folk and many are bored stiff hearing politicians, political betting and the media on both sides going on about it. The world is moving on in people minds, they feel they have much more to worry about, rising prices, inflation, high personal debt levels and interest rates rising soon. All this is playing into the protest vote which is or has switched from UKIP to the Lib Dems. The arrival of Trump has yet to play out, that could send some Leave votes to think again, it might not.
I look back through all the generations on all sides of my family and see travel and work abroad in every generation. I simply don't accept your absurd characterisation that not being in the EU will mean no travel to or from Europe and no cultural exchange. Overstating your case does not help.
You can have completely open borders and there will be advantages. But there are also disadvantages. Somewhat more restricted borders will also have advantages and disadvantages.
The advocates of free borders are very quick to point to the many advantages of open borders but less willing to understand that there are also costs and that people may feel that the balance between the pros and cons has shifted the wrong way. We are arguing about what rules should apply, who bears the costs and how the rules should be applied. This is not the apocalypse. It is the fery boring everyday stuff of politics and good administration.
Your friend was fined because he employed someone who had no right to live and work in the UK and EU FoM rules have nothing to do with Algerians.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.6.7.html
YDoethur's Hypothesis remains unsupported by data (so far).
However, most of the ones who had left will probably have been on holiday rather than voting at home.
And people find this surprising because......?
My point is that cultural exchange and travel were possible when there were very different rules going back over the last century and will continue to be possible when new rules are brought in. It is quite absurd to pretend that we will become a cultural wasteland simply because someone has to fill in a form. It is not form-filling which prevents culture but a closed mind. And closed inflexible minds come in all shapes and sizes.
I have a nephew who wanted to go to university in Spain. Will he still be able to? Probably, but it might be more expensive and complicated so he might not bother and he'll just have his horizons broadened in Hull instead of Seville.
I have a friend who wanted to retire in France and bought a house for that purpose. Will he still be able to do it? Probably not, the health insurance costs for non-EU residents in France have put that beyond him and his wife.
But it's all worth it because something, something, something sovreignty.
TBF it wasn't anyone's fault that the weather in London was so bad that day - I don't think that could have beeen foreseen. But for the rest...
Seriously though, it's an interesting point.
I have been working, traveling and living in South East Asia for over a decade, my total visa hassle usual amounts to a small fee and a 30 minute visit to the immigration office once a year, however do people survive.
Data roaming charges that are only finally being abolished in 2017?
How on earth did people manage before then?
https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/827802791083126784
Their roads do have something of a reputation for crazy drivers though - who was it said 'on Malta they drive in the shade'?
You and I might agree that he was treated more harshly than, say, Baroness Scotland but those sort of decisions are made above our pay grade
*sighs*
Also, I never felt European, as an identity. Perhaps you feel a deep and abiding kinship with Slovenians and Greeks and Spaniards. But that's not the only perspective; others are available.
You scoff at sovereignty as if it's a matter of no import. Perhaps it isn't, to you. Perhaps the UK slowly being dissolved into the EU as nation-states are whittled away and their powers replaced by Brussels is something you'd welcome. But the country has taken a different view.
As for your friend: he can sell the house, can he not? Changing his plans will be a shame for him, and likewise for your nephew (if that happens). But I don't think tacitly accepting the continual erosion of our capacity for self-governance in exchange for being able to retire in another country is a good bargain.
There is increasing talk of the United States of Europe, of the need for more Europe (the EU*), of an EU Army. At what point would you say stop?
We're already experiencing the difficulties of leaving because the bureaucratic empire-building means the EU has taken what should have been independent bodies (such as EURatom) and the extent of our legislative integration. How much harder would it be to leave later?
If you're a federalist, that's not a problem, of course. But a federalist I am not. I rather like the idea of electing a government that implement a manifesto, rather than laws conjured by foreign bureaucrats being imposed upon the UK.
It's why Birmingham (flattish) has a cycle to work level of 1.6% while in Bristol (hillier) it's over 7%.
banker: 24 times
worker: zero times
Or is it the other way round?