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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008

    Scott_P said:
    What would he have her do? Call Trump a c*nt, and tell him to go f*ck himself?

    His narcissism and self-centred personality demand that we flatter him - because such individuals are susceptible to flattery, and it's the obvious diplomatic strategy.

    Yes, it might come to nothing, in which case we can change course, but it is more likely to work to our advantage.
    "Sir - I salute your courage, your strength your indefatigability."
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    His narcissism and self-centred personality demand that we flatter him - because such individuals are susceptible to flattery, and it's the obvious diplomatic strategy.

    I think it's based on a misreading of Trump. Yes, he's a narcissist, but he can smell insincerity and hypocrisy a mile off.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    Sandpit said:

    Latest YouGov/Times poll

    Con 40 (-2) Lab 24 (-1) UKIP 14 (+2) Lib Dem 10 (-1)

    Mrs May has a 32-point lead over Mr Corbyn

    Oh no, Tory lead down to only sixteen points!

    So, Mr Corbyn, how did that "relaunch" the other week go...?
    Relaunching the packaging without changing the product almost never works. Those who didn't like the product still won't buy it and it'll piss off those who liked the old packaging.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,911

    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
    All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
    Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?

    Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
    I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
    I meant a 5% swing to Labour.
    Ah. OK. That'd be a very impressive return for Labour given current national polling.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,911
    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    Ah, 'no true Scotsman' rides again. Welcome back old friend, we've missed you.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    It's not getting above zero today. Bloody weather.

    On the other hand, a couple of years ago it barely got above freezing at all for months...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
    I meant a 5% swing to Labour.
    Ah. OK. That'd be a very impressive return for Labour given current national polling.
    I may be wrong, but it's very difficult to motivate government supporters in mid-term by-elections. Even in 1997-03, Labour's huge poll leads didn't lead to by-election victories.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    edited January 2017
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.

    A poorer, meaner, weaker, insular, frightened Nation.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    OK
    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their decent residents will be very happy she is meeting him
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
    There's no doubt that some Leave voters are ignorant oiks, if that's how you want to describe DEs. Poor, uneducated and unlikely to have grasped the significance of the EMA to the UK pharma industry and so forth. They're still entitled to vote as they see fit.

    We should be grateful. A century ago the Left were flirting with eugenics. At least they've dialled it back to de haut en bas disdain.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,911
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.

    I think you mean pre-Brexit...
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    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Further proof, if proof were needed, of Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010

    I've been asked to go campaign in Copeland.

    Sadly I can't go, otherwise it would have been a nailed on Tory gain.

    Head to Stoke :>
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Further proof, if proof were needed, of Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy

    And that being a member of the EU is not "holding us back" in any way
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    Pulpstar said:

    I've been asked to go campaign in Copeland.

    Sadly I can't go, otherwise it would have been a nailed on Tory gain.

    Head to Stoke :>
    God no. Place is a dump.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

    Look at the poll. The nation agrees with me. Suck it up, furrycup.
    Remarkably similar proportions to support for the Iraq war.

    image
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    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

    No we didn't not when our laws were written by foreigners that we didn't elect.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
    Poor baby. Memory lapses afflict us all as we age. Let me jog your memory.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:



    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.

    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

    With respect, and I say this as an at-the-time Remainer and federalist, that's complete bunk.

    - Could Britain choose its own immigration policy?
    - Could Britain set its own regulations for industry, goods or services?
    - Could Britain set its own taxes as it chose?
    - Was the European government elected and accountable according to usual democratic norms?
    - Could Britain's parliament amend or introduce legislation to reverse judicial decisions from the CJEU that it didn't like?

    There were and are certainly advantages to EU membership but to pretend that there was no cost in sovereignty or no democratic deficit is the sort of facile nonsense that lost the EU and its supporters credibility.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
    There's no doubt that some Leave voters are ignorant oiks, if that's how you want to describe DEs. Poor, uneducated and unlikely to have grasped the significance of the EMA to the UK pharma industry and so forth. They're still entitled to vote as they see fit.

    We should be grateful. A century ago the Left were flirting with eugenics. At least they've dialled it back to de haut en bas disdain.
    Indeed but as long as they keep up that attitude the white working class will not be coming back to them anytime soon
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited January 2017
    A handy cheat sheet for everyone:

    Positive news

    Brexiteers: Despite Brexit
    Remainers: We haven't left the EU.

    Negative news

    Brexiteers: We haven't left the EU.
    Remainers: Because of Brexit
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Has anyone commented that YouGov's results on "right result/wrong result" in its regular polls have been consistently different from that in this poll?

    It doesn't mean YouGov is right or Opinium is wrong, but the variance should be noted.
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    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
    Osborne claimed the mere act of voting to leave the EU would cause a DIY recession.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:
    His narcissism and self-centred personality demand that we flatter him - because such individuals are susceptible to flattery, and it's the obvious diplomatic strategy.

    Yes, it might come to nothing, in which case we can change course, but it is more likely to work to our advantage.
    Said Chamberlain.

    "The old expression, ‘To the victor belong the spoils’––you remember I always used to say, ‘Keep the oil.’ I wasn’t a fan of Iraq. I don’t want to go into Iraq. But I will tell you, when we were in we got out wrong. And I always said in addition to that, ‘Keep the oil.’ Now, I said it for economic reasons. But if you think about it, Mike, if you kept the oil you probably wouldn’t have ISIS because that’s where they made their money in the first place. So we should have kept the oil, okay? Maybe you’ll have another chance."

    President Donald J Trump. 21/1/17
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Osborne claimed the mere act of voting to leave the EU would cause a DIY recession.


    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away
    .
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I read last night that Greece's debt ratio is running above 180% of GDP, and aim is to reduce it by 20 points by 2060.

    2060!

    The Greeks are in for generations and generations of suffering.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    No we didn't not when our laws were written by foreigners that we didn't elect.

    But what's this? An elected British politician chairs the EU committee on the single market? Surely that can't be right?

    https://twitter.com/vickyford/status/824177077473710083
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Someone hasn't got the memo:

    @BBCnormans No sign of post referendum economic slump so far with third successive quarter of steady growth at 0.6%
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
    All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
    Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?

    Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
    I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
    I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.

    £25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.

    Deal?
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    But the great news is we could get leeway to export more high-end cheese into the US. That should give us a big bargaining chip when we negotiate with the Germans and the French.

    I believe that the actual XO stops short of torture and says that US laws should be obeyed at all times. There is a fake XO going around which does deal with torture http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-executive-action-torture-black-site-prisons/
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    Has anyone commented that YouGov's results on "right result/wrong result" in its regular polls have been consistently different from that in this poll?

    It doesn't mean YouGov is right or Opinium is wrong, but the variance should be noted.

    True. Was there a spread between the two in predicting the referendum result?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    I wonder what unforeseen consequences of the by-elections might be. If Labour loses one or both seats, the consensus would seem to be it's bad for Corbyn. But what if it deters incumbent Labour MPs from resigning, for fear they'll cost the party (and the party is longer term than the leader)?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is there a market on the nominee for the US Supreme Court anywhere ?
    Some of the runners...
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/01/william_pryor_has_no_place_on_the_supreme_court.html

    Are their any judges in or married to the Trump family?
    Trump himself has done beauty pageants.
    What, every single contestant?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:



    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.

    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

    With respect, and I say this as an at-the-time Remainer and federalist, that's complete bunk.

    - Could Britain choose its own immigration policy?
    - Could Britain set its own regulations for industry, goods or services?
    - Could Britain set its own taxes as it chose?
    - Was the European government elected and accountable according to usual democratic norms?
    - Could Britain's parliament amend or introduce legislation to reverse judicial decisions from the CJEU that it didn't like?

    There were and are certainly advantages to EU membership but to pretend that there was no cost in sovereignty or no democratic deficit is the sort of facile nonsense that lost the EU and its supporters credibility.
    I think Topping's view is - which I respect, but vehemently disagree with - is that, yes, we couldn't do any of that, but we could chip in a small say at a much higher international level, and it wasn't a big deal particularly next to the economic costs of saying "No".
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    Most of the rest of us voted to Leave.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: Doesn't sound as if David Davis intends to publish white paper on Brexit before Article 50 vote #Brexit
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    If the EU is to survive, it has to become a single country with a federal structure. They understand that even if they try to keep it out of focus.

    Some Remainers think the day can't come soon enough, yet they still pretend we'd have sovereignty. Barmy.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
    I meant a 5% swing to Labour.
    Ah. OK. That'd be a very impressive return for Labour given current national polling.
    I may be wrong, but it's very difficult to motivate government supporters in mid-term by-elections. Even in 1997-03, Labour's huge poll leads didn't lead to by-election victories.
    It did lead to a Lib Dem gain from the Tories in Romsey though, and a massive anti-Tory swing in Winchester (which some might regard as a gain if the original 1997GE vote was taken as null).

    I agree with your implicit point that Labour is over-priced in Copeland but all the same, a 5% swing would be a good deal more than I'd expect.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    No we didn't not when our laws were written by foreigners that we didn't elect.

    But what's this? An elected British politician chairs the EU committee on the single market? Surely that can't be right?

    https://twitter.com/vickyford/status/824177077473710083
    That is very interesting.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Graeme Wearden
    UK has now racked up 16 straight quarters of growth #GDP https://t.co/q3wA3QKjCv https://t.co/I9vD4zlhaP
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: Doesn't sound as if David Davis intends to publish white paper on Brexit before Article 50 vote #Brexit

    Time for a reverse Maastricht.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    SeanT said:

    This is an actual genuine first line from a news story.

    "A 12-year-old girl was among six people shot on Wednesday evening during a vigil in Chicago for a gunshot victim, local media said,"

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chicago-shooting-idUSKBN15A0S7

    Trump is clearly a crazed loon, but he's right about that American Carnage. They need to send in the army.

    The seductive thing about Trump is that he is right about some of the problems. It's the solutions that are seriously out of whack. Chuck in his sheer randomness, ego and narcissistic personality and we enter a dangerous time.

    Fwiw I believe there is something there between him and Russia. No normal American president would shit on NATO.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CD13 said:

    If the EU is to survive, it has to become a single country with a federal structure.

    No, it really doesn't.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
    Poor baby. Memory lapses afflict us all as we age. Let me jog your memory.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
    1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50

    2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,732

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
    All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
    Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?

    Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
    I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
    I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.

    £25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.

    Deal?
    I think that they may well revert the passport. It costs very little and is symbolic. Pretty meaningless but the Daily Mail will like it.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Roger said:

    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.

    Most of the rest of us voted to Leave.
    Poor old Roger doesn't seem to have grasped that, and I particularly enjoyed him telling Sean of all people that he needs to travel to get a perspective.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    Most of the rest of us voted to Leave.
    Technically not true. Turnout was not 100%.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
    All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
    Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?

    Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
    I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
    I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.

    £25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.

    Deal?
    I think that they may well revert the passport. It costs very little and is symbolic. Pretty meaningless but the Daily Mail will like it.
    The Express will have an orgasm. Which is a very good reason NOT to do it.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
    Poor baby. Memory lapses afflict us all as we age. Let me jog your memory.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
    1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50

    2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
    In that case, we've got it all to come in mid-March. I'll start stocking up on dry foods.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
    Poor baby. Memory lapses afflict us all as we age. Let me jog your memory.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
    1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50

    2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
    I think there's a difference with triggering Article 50 with no plan, no PM and political turmoil (i.e. 24th June last year) and triggering Article 50 with a worked up plan, parliamentary and civil service support - and with slightly cooler heads all round - which we'll have this year.

    By the same token, the economy - and business investment - has continued since June despite the inevitability of Brexit, and the uncertainty over precisely which form it will take.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Extraordinary Rendition is nothing new either - after the English abolished torture in 1640 they occasionally got round it by sending prisoners to Scotland where torture was still practiced:

    When the jurisdiction of the Star Chamber was abolished in England prisoners were transferred to Scotland so that they could be forced by the Scots Privy Council which still used torture to provide information to the authorities. This is illustrated by the case of Robert Baillie of Jerviswood whose trial took place in Edinburgh in December 1684. .....Robert Baillie had been named by William Spence, who was suspected of being involved in plotting a rebellion against the government of Charles II, as one of his co-conspirators. Spence gave this information having been arrested in London and taken to Edinburgh, where he was tortured.

    https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldjudgmt/jd051208/aand.pdf
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,911
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    Funnily enough, I am actually in Paris for a week or so in March, where my French publishers are launching the new S K Tremayne, La Menace, and they want me to do publicity, signings etc. Le Doute (the Ice Twins) was a big hit over there.

    https://www.amazon.fr/S-K-Tremayne/s?ie=UTF8&page=1&rh=i:aps,k:S.K. Tremayne

    i think they're putting me up in the George V or something ridiculous. I'll let you know if I get any perspective from my suite.
    I recently read it. I was disturbed by your female VO. Enjoy the George V.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436

    No we didn't not when our laws were written by foreigners that we didn't elect.

    But what's this? An elected British politician chairs the EU committee on the single market? Surely that can't be right?

    https://twitter.com/vickyford/status/824177077473710083
    Influence is not the same as sovereignty. It might be well worth trading some of the latter for some of the former - the UK's membership of NATO rests on that principle perhaps even more than the membership of the EU - but the idea that Britain's EU laws are not substantially written by foreigners is incontestable given the composition of the EP and Council of Ministers.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. T, reminds me a bit of that lovely MTV video about how white guys can be better in 2017.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Someone hasn't got the memo:

    @BBCnormans No sign of post referendum economic slump so far with third successive quarter of steady growth at 0.6%

    "so far"
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited January 2017
    Surely passports would be the easiest way of keeping everyone happy.

    By default blue passports are issued, but for an extra 50 quid say you can keep the red one and freedom of movement within Europe.

    Since it is elective and costs a bit I think most people would go for the blue ones. Perhaps half a million people would go for red ones ?
    Diehard leavers wouldn't... or would they :p ?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Osborne claimed the mere act of voting to leave the EU would cause a DIY recession.


    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away
    .
    Osborne and the BoE, two peas in the same pod.

    Telegraph - "The Bank of England has almost doubled its economic growth forecast for 2017 and scrapped its planned interest rate cut, in a dramatic U-turn on its earlier warnings that the economy would suffer a severe post-referendum crunch."
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    - Could Britain's parliament amend or introduce legislation to reverse judicial decisions from the CJEU that it didn't like?

    There's a counter-intuitive phenomenon whereby people feel happier at work if they know their boss earns a lot more than them. The explanation is that it gives them something to aspire to that they could conceivably picture themselves attaining, even if unrealistic.

    I wonder if the same effect doesn't manifest itself in this attitude. Most people with an interest in politics could imagine themselves as an MP, and might even dream of what they'd do as PM, but serving on the European Commission or being involved in Brussels generally seems so remote that most, even the politically engaged, think that it's not for the likes of them.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    I feel sorry for May today. She has an impossible job. Hope the benefits of rushing in outweigh the the benefits of a more judicious approach.

    It would have been interesting to have seen Thatcher handle Trump. I can't help but think she would have hated him, but got the better of him. Not sure May is quite that clever.

  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:
    His narcissism and self-centred personality demand that we flatter him - because such individuals are susceptible to flattery, and it's the obvious diplomatic strategy.

    Yes, it might come to nothing, in which case we can change course, but it is more likely to work to our advantage.
    Said Chamberlain.

    Utter misunderstanding of the pre-WWII situation and complete failure of analogy. But apart from that, good point.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    Most of the rest of us voted to Leave.
    Technically not true. Turnout was not 100%.
    And it never is.

    But it was an absolute majority, and the largest number of votes cast in UK history for anything. Ever.

    Turnout didn't quite hit 1950s GE levels of c.80%, or SindyRef levels of 85%, but it (a) wasn't quite viewed as existential for the nation, and, (b) we live in very different times.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Extraordinary Rendition is nothing new either - after the English abolished torture in 1640 they occasionally got round it by sending prisoners to Scotland where torture was still practiced:

    When the jurisdiction of the Star Chamber was abolished in England prisoners were transferred to Scotland so that they could be forced by the Scots Privy Council which still used torture to provide information to the authorities. This is illustrated by the case of Robert Baillie of Jerviswood whose trial took place in Edinburgh in December 1684. .....Robert Baillie had been named by William Spence, who was suspected of being involved in plotting a rebellion against the government of Charles II, as one of his co-conspirators. Spence gave this information having been arrested in London and taken to Edinburgh, where he was tortured.

    https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldjudgmt/jd051208/aand.pdf

    We were still carrying out public hangings in the 1860s. I think we've moved on a bit from those days!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    I wonder what unforeseen consequences of the by-elections might be. If Labour loses one or both seats, the consensus would seem to be it's bad for Corbyn. But what if it deters incumbent Labour MPs from resigning, for fear they'll cost the party (and the party is longer term than the leader)?

    Reading TSE's report on the PLP I very much suspect it's sauve qui peut
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Has anyone commented that YouGov's results on "right result/wrong result" in its regular polls have been consistently different from that in this poll?

    It doesn't mean YouGov is right or Opinium is wrong, but the variance should be noted.

    True. Was there a spread between the two in predicting the referendum result?
    Opinium had Leave 51/49, Yougov's had 49/51.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

    Look at the poll. The nation agrees with me. Suck it up, furrycup.
    "Look at the poll."

    ROTFLMAO. As they say.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    SeanT said:

    This is an actual genuine first line from a news story.

    "A 12-year-old girl was among six people shot on Wednesday evening during a vigil in Chicago for a gunshot victim, local media said,"

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chicago-shooting-idUSKBN15A0S7

    Trump is clearly a crazed loon, but he's right about that American Carnage. They need to send in the army.

    They need to repeal the Second Amendment.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
    There's no doubt that some Leave voters are ignorant oiks, if that's how you want to describe DEs. Poor, uneducated and unlikely to have grasped the significance of the EMA to the UK pharma industry and so forth. They're still entitled to vote as they see fit.

    We should be grateful. A century ago the Left were flirting with eugenics. At least they've dialled it back to de haut en bas disdain.
    Indeed but as long as they keep up that attitude the white working class will not be coming back to them anytime soon
    Ditto in America, if you look at that video of the Democrat candidate for thingummy saying her job is to "shut white people up"

    The slow intentional suicide of the Left, in the West, thanks to an insane concentration on nauseating identity politics, will make several great books in a couple of decades
    The trouble with identity politics is that it works both ways.

    A truly intelligent Left would be working to make race, gender and sexuality facts/preferences a societal irrelevance.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    Most of the rest of us voted to Leave.
    Technically not true. Turnout was not 100%.
    And it never is.

    But it was an absolute majority, and the largest number of votes cast in UK history for anything. Ever.

    Turnout didn't quite hit 1950s GE levels of c.80%, or SindyRef levels of 85%, but it (a) wasn't quite viewed as existential for the nation, and, (b) we live in very different times.
    Sure it's not a big deal. But it is a boring fact, maybe a technical fact, that the statement "most people voted Leave" is not true.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,175

    the idea that Britain's EU laws are not substantially written by foreigners is incontestable

    It's contestable based on how you define your identity. Our 'problem' is that we think a Frenchman is more foreign than an Australian.

    Whether right or wrong, when people say we're just 'different', it's this that they really mean.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
    There's no doubt that some Leave voters are ignorant oiks, if that's how you want to describe DEs. Poor, uneducated and unlikely to have grasped the significance of the EMA to the UK pharma industry and so forth. They're still entitled to vote as they see fit.

    We should be grateful. A century ago the Left were flirting with eugenics. At least they've dialled it back to de haut en bas disdain.
    Indeed but as long as they keep up that attitude the white working class will not be coming back to them anytime soon
    Ditto in America, if you look at that video of the Democrat candidate for thingummy saying her job is to "shut white people up"

    The slow intentional suicide of the Left, in the West, thanks to an insane concentration on nauseating identity politics, will make several great books in a couple of decades
    Yes, the white working class are probably lost to them now if they are to win again it will be through a combination of the ethnic minority vote and white graduates
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436

    - Could Britain's parliament amend or introduce legislation to reverse judicial decisions from the CJEU that it didn't like?

    There's a counter-intuitive phenomenon whereby people feel happier at work if they know their boss earns a lot more than them. The explanation is that it gives them something to aspire to that they could conceivably picture themselves attaining, even if unrealistic.

    I wonder if the same effect doesn't manifest itself in this attitude. Most people with an interest in politics could imagine themselves as an MP, and might even dream of what they'd do as PM, but serving on the European Commission or being involved in Brussels generally seems so remote that most, even the politically engaged, think that it's not for the likes of them.
    And that is related to the point I made, how?

    Simple question for you on that point of sovereignty: how could Britain's politicians or population, by themselves, reverse a decision of the CJEU that they don't like?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. T, reminds me a bit of that lovely MTV video about how white guys can be better in 2017.

    That was a corker - I'd my hand over my mouth in horror. What were they thinking?!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuOGf1iuLEA
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. T, is it a one-off renewal or can they do so forever?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    i think they're putting me up in the George V or something ridiculous. I'll let you know if I get any perspective from my suite.
    It's very nice - stayed there once for a birthday and even got them to wangle me a reservation at Le Cinq which is always booked out for months in advance - after they noticed it was my birthday they sent up champagne & cake.....

    Edit - it was also the subject of the best wind up I've ever seen - junior manager talking to (very status conscious) senior manager from a different department on the flight to Paris.

    'My secretary is useless. I prefer Holiday Inn, but she's booked me into a hotel called the George Vee - have you ever heard of it?"
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    Jonathan said:



    Sure it's not a big deal. But it is a boring fact, maybe a technical fact, that the statement "most people voted Leave" is not true.

    It's also completely irrelevant. Not even Baldwin in 1931 would have had a mandate on this measure.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:



    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.

    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    More bed wetting from you.

    We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave.

    You just wanted someone to blame because you are weak.

    With respect, and I say this as an at-the-time Remainer and federalist, that's complete bunk.

    - Could Britain choose its own immigration policy?
    - Could Britain set its own regulations for industry, goods or services?
    - Could Britain set its own taxes as it chose?
    - Was the European government elected and accountable according to usual democratic norms?
    - Could Britain's parliament amend or introduce legislation to reverse judicial decisions from the CJEU that it didn't like?

    There were and are certainly advantages to EU membership but to pretend that there was no cost in sovereignty or no democratic deficit is the sort of facile nonsense that lost the EU and its supporters credibility.
    I think Topping's view is - which I respect, but vehemently disagree with - is that, yes, we couldn't do any of that, but we could chip in a small say at a much higher international level, and it wasn't a big deal particularly next to the economic costs of saying "No".
    That would be a debatable point; indeed, one I'd have sympathy with. but it's still incompatible with his earlier assertion that "We had all the freedom and democracy and sovereignty in the world before we voted to leave."
  • Options

    No we didn't not when our laws were written by foreigners that we didn't elect.

    But what's this? An elected British politician chairs the EU committee on the single market? Surely that can't be right?

    https://twitter.com/vickyford/status/824177077473710083
    Is that committee only made of Brits we elect or can a majority of foreigners pass bills we don't want?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited January 2017
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
    You missed the word 'decent'
    It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
    There's no doubt that some Leave voters are ignorant oiks, if that's how you want to describe DEs. Poor, uneducated and unlikely to have grasped the significance of the EMA to the UK pharma industry and so forth. They're still entitled to vote as they see fit.

    We should be grateful. A century ago the Left were flirting with eugenics. At least they've dialled it back to de haut en bas disdain.
    Indeed but as long as they keep up that attitude the white working class will not be coming back to them anytime soon
    Ditto in America, if you look at that video of the Democrat candidate for thingummy saying her job is to "shut white people up"

    The slow intentional suicide of the Left, in the West, thanks to an insane concentration on nauseating identity politics, will make several great books in a couple of decades
    Yes, the white working class are probably lost to them now if they are to win again it will be through a combination of the ethnic minority vote and white graduates
    The Democrats were only ~ 0.2% or so away from taking the election, the notion that somehow they are 'forever lost' is ridiculous - albeit I do think Trump will win a second term.

    If the Democrats had won ~ 40% or so of the WWC they'd have won ! Trump got 63% or so from memory.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    We fucked up the film rights. We gave it to a Warner Bros linked company in LA (for nice money, admittedly) but they've just dithered, got an OK script, now talking to an OK-ish director, 18 months down the line....

    Meanwhile we've had some really amazing people in Europe saying they really want to make it, but the Yanks are renewing the option (as is there right) so we're stuck.

    The first circles of Development Hell.

    You took a really crap deal from America over a much better deal from Europe...

    Now, where I have heard that recently?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    John_M said:

    The Express will have an orgasm. Which is a very good reason NOT to do it.

    The design (text and art) of the passport will change simply because it has to if we are no longer in the EU, but the physical characteristics are standardised by the ICAO and those are unlikely to change.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Miss Plato, that white guys are inherently wicked. It's a fun sort of racist/misandrist cocktail of politically correct prejudice.

    F1: still thinking about it, but may shove a few pounds on Bottas at 6 (each) to get either four or five or more wins this season. Rosberg achieved that every year he was Hamilton's team mate (well, after the regulations changed).

    Also, there's a rumour Ecclestone will set up a rival break-away series.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.

    For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.

  • Options
    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PA: #Breaking UK economy grew by 0.6% during fourth quarter of 2016, Office for National Statistics says pic.twitter.com/cUbAPi4TRz

    Wow that's great. Brexit Britain is smashing all the records.
    How long was I asleep for? Have we left the EU?
    Poor baby. Memory lapses afflict us all as we age. Let me jog your memory.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
    1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50

    2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
    OK, do you want a bet on what happens on the triggering of A50 in March?


    I bet you £1000 there won't be an immediate recession as predicted by the Treasury, etc

    Up for it?
    I can get better than 3/1 with William Hill on such a bet, so no ta.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,911
    The Labour MP who suggested Israel is the 51st state wasn't wrong

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-say-trump-freezes-obamas-last-minute-221-million-payout/
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    HYUFD said:

    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440

    NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him

    The vast majority of Americans in whatever state will have no idea who she is and no interest in the meeting.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.

    It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
    Garbage as usual! Why don't you join Casino and go and paint your passport blue. Most of the rest of us have got more interesting things to think about than your archaic idea of freedom and nation. Go to France for a month and get a perspective.
    Most of the rest of us voted to Leave.
    Technically not true. Turnout was not 100%.
    And it never is.

    But it was an absolute majority, and the largest number of votes cast in UK history for anything. Ever.

    Turnout didn't quite hit 1950s GE levels of c.80%, or SindyRef levels of 85%, but it (a) wasn't quite viewed as existential for the nation, and, (b) we live in very different times.
    Sure it's not a big deal. But it is a boring fact, maybe a technical fact, that the statement "most people voted Leave" is not true.
    Most people who voted in the EU referendum voted Leave.

    Those who didn't.. don't count.

    This is not a criticism aimed at you, but it has tickled me how various people (funnily enough, all Remainers) have chopped and changed the numbers and thresholds over the last 7 months trying to construct an arithmetic way of delegitimising the result.

    The only argument I'd have (some) sympathy with is that we're getting our Brexit fairly good & hard, despite the 48%. But I think polling shows why May will get away with it.

    A narrow win can still be a very decisive one.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436

    the idea that Britain's EU laws are not substantially written by foreigners is incontestable

    It's contestable based on how you define your identity. Our 'problem' is that we think a Frenchman is more foreign than an Australian.

    Whether right or wrong, when people say we're just 'different', it's this that they really mean.
    That's waffle.

    When I say 'foreigners' in the context of UK sovereignty, I mean 'people who are not UK citizens'. The original point was that the UK not only had all the sovereignty it needed but all the sovereignty it could have. The former is a debatable point; the latter is just daft.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008
    edited January 2017
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 40% (-2)
    LAB: 24% (-1)
    UKIP: 14% (+2)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    (via YouGov / this week)
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913


    For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.

    Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.

    Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.

    Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436

    Miss Plato, that white guys are inherently wicked. It's a fun sort of racist/misandrist cocktail of politically correct prejudice.

    F1: still thinking about it, but may shove a few pounds on Bottas at 6 (each) to get either four or five or more wins this season. Rosberg achieved that every year he was Hamilton's team mate (well, after the regulations changed).

    Also, there's a rumour Ecclestone will set up a rival break-away series.

    Would you stick all your eggs in an 86-year old basket?
This discussion has been closed.