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  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    RobD said:

    Conservatives have selected Trudy Harrison to be the candidate in the Copeland by-election. I know no more than that.

    She lives in Bootle, is 40, and has four daughters... now you know a lot more :D

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/01/trudy-harrison-is-selected-as-conservative-candidate-for-copeland-cchq-is-economical-with-her-cv.html
    All 4 main parties are fielding female candidates, the Green is a bloke.
    Bloody PC gone mad, I tell ya!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is there a market on the nominee for the US Supreme Court anywhere ?
    Some of the runners...
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/01/william_pryor_has_no_place_on_the_supreme_court.html

    Are their any judges in or married to the Trump family?
    Trump himself has done beauty pageants. Does that count? :D
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Conservatives have selected Trudy Harrison to be the candidate in the Copeland by-election. I know no more than that.

    She lives in Bootle, is 40, and has four daughters... now you know a lot more :D

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/01/trudy-harrison-is-selected-as-conservative-candidate-for-copeland-cchq-is-economical-with-her-cv.html
    That is Bootle, a small village in Cumbria, not the garden suburb of Liverpool.
  • Options
    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    edited January 2017
    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    The pre-referendum polling conducted for Dominic Cummings showed that the instinctive feeling towards Leave as the right option was around 70-30 in favour. The 52-48 was essentially the swing to Remain of 18% that would have voted Leave but for economic worries/project fear.

    Given that the prophesies of doom have not materialised to any substantial extent, and that talk of back of the queue can be seen to be nonsense now, it's inevitable that some will conclude they were misled by the Remain campaign.
    ( Edit for politeness) Please could you link to the article and the passage because I must have missed it.
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    Trudy Harrison, the selected conservative candidate is a jam-eater. It is brave to take the jump from council and NPA officer to candidate. Chris Whiteside and Stephen Haraldsen as generous as ever. It seems Mrs Harrison ticks the boxes and will no doubt have had a degree of media training - unlike Sarah Olney. I know there has been a lot of angst in getting the selection right and whilst she might not be the best candidate imaginable she is the best canddiate possible.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    RobD said:

    Conservatives have selected Trudy Harrison to be the candidate in the Copeland by-election. I know no more than that.

    She lives in Bootle, is 40, and has four daughters... now you know a lot more :D

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/01/trudy-harrison-is-selected-as-conservative-candidate-for-copeland-cchq-is-economical-with-her-cv.html
    That is Bootle, a small village in Cumbria, not the garden suburb of Liverpool.
    Now I know more!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is there a market on the nominee for the US Supreme Court anywhere ?
    Some of the runners...
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/01/william_pryor_has_no_place_on_the_supreme_court.html

    Are their any judges in or married to the Trump family?
    Trump himself has done beauty pageants. Does that count? :D
    He gives the best judgements. Period.
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    Morning all. Fabulously busy at work so can only dip in and out. A few thoughts:

    1. Full blown denial amongst many in the party over the Copeland canvass return leak. Have heard internally that the leak was accurate, so things really are that bad on the ground. Can be turned around of course but not the place any campaign would like to start.

    2. Selection of a hard Remainer in Stoke an inspired move. He's now moved on to "we have to hold the Tories to account on A50" whereas Eddie Hitler for UKIP will be doing the piedmont piper bit and telling people to follow the pretty pipe music to a WTO deal and ignore the cowards warning against. If Labour retain the seat a nuanced argument on Brexit can be rolled out everywhere.

    3. If we lose both - and I think we probably will - even my local Momentum activists are saying it's the end for Corbyn. They describe "the nutters" as disagreeing, but apparently there was a showdown with "the nutters" over the new Momentum constitution where they put up an argument against internal democracy and the need for party membership (as Trots they're barred from the party), we're voted down and promptly invited to leave the meeting. Perhaps there is a place for Jeremy for Labour Ltd after all...

    Agree with all of this.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is there a market on the nominee for the US Supreme Court anywhere ?
    Some of the runners...
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/01/william_pryor_has_no_place_on_the_supreme_court.html

    Are their any judges in or married to the Trump family?
    Trump himself has done beauty pageants. Does that count? :D
    He gives the best judgements. Period.
    That's Judge-President Trump to you. :D
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    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    edited January 2017

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    Aren't those two separate policies? :D
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Good morning, everyone.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    Independent-minded MPs are a good thing to be welcomed IMO.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    Good morning, everyone.

    Good morning, m'lord!
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    The pre-referendum polling conducted for Dominic Cummings showed that the instinctive feeling towards Leave as the right option was around 70-30 in favour. The 52-48 was essentially the swing to Remain of 18% that would have voted Leave but for economic worries/project fear.

    Given that the prophesies of doom have not materialised to any substantial extent, and that talk of back of the queue can be seen to be nonsense now, it's inevitable that some will conclude they were misled by the Remain campaign.
    No I've just read the poll you are referring to again and it's horseshit. The questions are not of equal weight and even then you've distoted the figures. A hanging offense on PB
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    But the great news is we could get leeway to export more high-end cheese into the US. That should give us a big bargaining chip when we negotiate with the Germans and the French.

  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
    My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.

    My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.

    Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    I'd far rather have independent free-thinkers in parliament than automatons mindlessly parroting the party line.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,788

    Sorry .. what a horrible lot of typos. Too focused on avoiding inevitable cancer by burning my breakfast sausages (or something).

    McCluskey gave his UNITE leadership rival a disciplinary final written warning for speaking to a meeting of Labour MPs.

    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/824306705622245377
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all. I see SO is having his daily attack of the vapours. Has anyone seen the text of Trump's XO?

    The best way to deal with current affairs is, in my view, to wait until they become current, as opposed to the vaporous near-future. May could very well stand up in front of the Republicans and spout absolute gibberish while Trump waterboards a recalcitrant journalist stage left. Or perhaps not. Let's wait and see.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    edited January 2017
    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    edited January 2017
    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    You obviously don't have a high opinion of Brexit voters. (I don't either but I don't believe they're supporters of torture)
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    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    Threaten to dump a mass of illegals, say half a million, back across the border in one go?

  • Options
    Latest YouGov/Times poll

    Con 40 (-2) Lab 24 (-1) UKIP 14 (+2) Lib Dem 10 (-1)

    Mrs May has a 32-point lead over Mr Corbyn
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    why is the dow jones still going up? Do they believe Trump will be out before long and the mainstream Rep. crazies in charge?
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    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    Threaten to dump a mass of illegals, say half a million, back across the border in one go?

    You mean "threaten something that's practically impossible"? Should appeal to Trump, after all...

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    You obviously don't have a high opinion of Brexit voters. (I don't either but I don't believe they're supporters of torture)
    Even if you think Brexit voters are amoral neanderthals, and leaving all issues of morality aside, the practical issue with torture is that it's ineffective and counterproductive on several levels. Not least of which is that it seriously fucks up relationships with other members of the Five Eyes IC.

    *edit* I wanted to add that reporting on the Orange One is so distorted (on all sides), I'm already reduced to having to read the original text in his assorted XOs, proclamations and memoranda. Journalists should be ashamed of themselves.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    I think you'll find that British decency, moral imperative, and pragmatism will not be so happy.

    Leavers? I agree; it's likely they won't be too worried by any of that.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    a vision of angry wisconsinites (is that the correct term?) in their special hats comes to mind
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925


    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    why is the dow jones still going up? Do they believe Trump will be out before long and the mainstream Rep. crazies in charge?
    In general I don't think there is much point trying to guess what short term market movements mean.
    Lets see what things look like in two or three years time.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    I'd have more time for her (and she'd be more effective) if she focussed her remarks on her Select Cttee's area of expertise - rather than platitudinous grand standing.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Latest YouGov/Times poll

    Con 40 (-2) Lab 24 (-1) UKIP 14 (+2) Lib Dem 10 (-1)

    Mrs May has a 32-point lead over Mr Corbyn

    Labour sub 25... red alert red alert!
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    Threaten to dump a mass of illegals, say half a million, back across the border in one go?

    Logistically that's tricky... But politically its probably a total win for him.
    And he could try confiscating their assets too.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    Threaten to dump a mass of illegals, say half a million, back across the border in one go?

    You mean "threaten something that's practically impossible"? Should appeal to Trump, after all...

    he'll just say he's done it and Plato and the post-truth twitterati will believe him
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    You obviously don't have a high opinion of Brexit voters. (I don't either but I don't believe they're supporters of torture)
    If it produces information to stop future terrorist attacks I expect they would be all for it, liberal Remainers would obviously oppose it on principle but they are now the minority
  • Options

    Latest YouGov/Times poll

    Con 40 (-2) Lab 24 (-1) UKIP 14 (+2) Lib Dem 10 (-1)

    Mrs May has a 32-point lead over Mr Corbyn

    Labour sub 25... red alert red alert!
    I waiting for Justin's analysis before I write off Corbyn.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.

    The pre-referendum polling conducted for Dominic Cummings showed that the instinctive feeling towards Leave as the right option was around 70-30 in favour. The 52-48 was essentially the swing to Remain of 18% that would have voted Leave but for economic worries/project fear.

    Given that the prophesies of doom have not materialised to any substantial extent, and that talk of back of the queue can be seen to be nonsense now, it's inevitable that some will conclude they were misled by the Remain campaign.
    No I've just read the poll you are referring to again and it's horseshit. The questions are not of equal weight and even then you've distoted the figures. A hanging offense on PB
    https://dominiccummings.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/screenshot-2016-11-27-13-58-441.png?w=498&h=458

    Call it 65-35 then (59 plays 32 with D/Ks).

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189


    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    why is the dow jones still going up? Do they believe Trump will be out before long and the mainstream Rep. crazies in charge?
    Trump will cut taxes and reduce regulations that is why, though more likely than mainstream Republicans taking over is Trump stays but the Democrats take Congress in two years in my view
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    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    I think you'll find that British decency, moral imperative, and pragmatism will not be so happy.

    Leavers? I agree; it's likely they won't be too worried by any of that.
    Leavers are now the majority
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited January 2017
    HYUFD said:


    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    why is the dow jones still going up? Do they believe Trump will be out before long and the mainstream Rep. crazies in charge?
    Trump will cut taxes and reduce regulations that is why, though more likely than mainstream Republicans taking over is Trump stays but the Democrats take Congress in two years in my view
    are they betting that Congress will stop the protectionist stuff?

    and are they going to wave through the debt ceiling rise in March?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    More worrying for May in the long term is how is she going to avoid the situation where MI6 operatives or whatever get dragged into torture through working so closely with American partners. Not sure we ever got to the bottom of what went on when Blair and David Miliband where around post-Iraq war, but I very much doubt they were personally in favour of things like water-boarding but stuff can happen on your watch.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    Threaten to dump a mass of illegals, say half a million, back across the border in one go?

    You mean "threaten something that's practically impossible"? Should appeal to Trump, after all...

    he'll just say he's done it and Plato and the post-truth twitterati will believe him
    Is it practically impossible?
    Or just impossible if you abide by standards of decency and the law - which Trump won't care about?

    I believe Obama deported 2.5m over six years. Trump could probably beat that and just stack them up in one go. They could be held in Trump security prisons (no relation to President of course).
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    https://twitter.com/BreezeBlast/status/824394916633735168/photo/1

    Mark Breeze polled over 2000 votes in Stoke as an independent last time around.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    More worrying for May in the long term is how is she going to avoid the situation where MI6 operatives or whatever get dragged into torture through working so closely with American partners. Not sure we ever got to the bottom of what went on when Blair and David Miliband where around post-Iraq war, but I very much doubt they were personally in favour of things like water-boarding but stuff can happen on your watch.
    Our intelligence agencies are staffed by (on the whole) smart, decent, well grounded people (that's in part what DV is for, nutjobs need not apply). You have no idea of the ructions that were caused when the community found out what was happening. This is but a distant echo of the furore:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/31/revealed-britain-rendition-policy-rift-between-spy-agencies-mi6-mi5
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/824533501722710017

    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    I’m half hoping he wins the seat – the fireworks from the back benches would be spectacular.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189

    HYUFD said:


    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has noticed that he can't make Mexico pay for his famous wall. So he's going to bankrupt US cities instead...

    I can think of several ways he could make them pay/seem to make them pay.

    1. As part of revised NAFTA deal they pay to access US market.
    2. New tariffs with Mexico that go to fund the wall.
    3. Is a tax on remittances to Mexico possible?
    4. Cancel all foreign aid to Mexico ($420m in 2013)
    5. Send in troops and 'secure the border area' and essentially steal Mexican land. I believe one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines is 40k south of the border for instance.
    why is the dow jones still going up? Do they believe Trump will be out before long and the mainstream Rep. crazies in charge?
    Trump will cut taxes and reduce regulations that is why, though more likely than mainstream Republicans taking over is Trump stays but the Democrats take Congress in two years in my view
    are they betting that Congress will stop the protectionist stuff?

    and are they going to wave through the debt ceiling rise in March?
    A number of Republicans back protectionism as do a number of Democrats too
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    She seems to view herself as a Liberal Democrat agent inside the Tory Party.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    Pulpstar said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    What are the constitutional mechanisms for removing POTUS when, as is the case here, it becomes increasingly apparent that he is mentally impaired? Can some of the usual wiki-geniuses on here opine?

    Section IV of the XXV Amendment is what you need to read up on.
    Good to see Don Brind getting some healthy competition in the fiction department
    It's a perfectly fair question. Whether it can be practically applied as a pseudo-impeachment is another matter.

    At the very minimum, it's a good idea to always know the rules of the game.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Roger,

    You obviously live in an interesting world, and I can see why you'd be be good at advertising.

    There are no shades of grey in Roger-World. And it's the same with your morality. Everything is two-dimensional black and white. You're either an angelic, politically correct goodie, or you're the spawn of Satan.

    I apologise for initially believing you were a spoof.

    My naïve view is far more nuanced, but you're entitled to your views.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Patrick Wintour:

    Not surprisingly, there are no plans as yet for a joint press conference. Trump’s public performances have so far the quality of an unguided missile, veering off into unexpected directions, not dissimilar to the British independent nuclear deterrent.

    There is also the contrast in personal style. A serious-minded and circumspect daughter of a clergyman, she has, unlike Nigel Farage, nothing culturally in common with Donald Trump. Pictures of her arm in arm with the president in the Rose Garden or sharing a thumbs-up sign will not be published. May is not needy in that way.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/26/mays-meeting-with-trump-a-collision-of-contrasting-world-views
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    The Chinese president?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    Calm down.

    We'd be engaging with Trump even if we'd voted to Remain in the EU. And the best way to influence him is probably to laud him in public, but warn him in private.

    It's what we do.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    I think you'll find that British decency, moral imperative, and pragmatism will not be so happy.

    Leavers? I agree; it's likely they won't be too worried by any of that.
    Leavers are now the majority
    Ah I see moral rectitude is determined by majority decision.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Patrick Wintour:

    Not surprisingly, there are no plans as yet for a joint press conference. Trump’s public performances have so far the quality of an unguided missile, veering off into unexpected directions, not dissimilar to the British independent nuclear deterrent.

    There is also the contrast in personal style. A serious-minded and circumspect daughter of a clergyman, she has, unlike Nigel Farage, nothing culturally in common with Donald Trump. Pictures of her arm in arm with the president in the Rose Garden or sharing a thumbs-up sign will not be published. May is not needy in that way.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/26/mays-meeting-with-trump-a-collision-of-contrasting-world-views

    smart from May.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited January 2017

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    Calm down.

    We'd be engaging with Trump even if we'd voted to Remain in the EU. And the best way to influence him is probably to laud him in public, but warn him in private.

    It's what we do.
    Wondering what it would take for us not to fawn over a US president. And what would we say if a new middle eastern despot said torture works.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    The Chinese president?
    Given she's going there soon, I'm sure that will be the case as well.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    Calm down.

    We'd be engaging with Trump even if we'd voted to Remain in the EU. And the best way to influence him is probably to laud him in public, but warn him in private.

    It's what we do.
    Even SO's worst nightmares about the May meeting are hardly likely to be as embarrassing as her scampering through a hotel kitchen in hot pursuit or sharing toothpaste like Labour leaders......
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    edited January 2017
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971

    Latest YouGov/Times poll

    Con 40 (-2) Lab 24 (-1) UKIP 14 (+2) Lib Dem 10 (-1)

    Mrs May has a 32-point lead over Mr Corbyn

    Oh no, Tory lead down to only sixteen points!

    So, Mr Corbyn, how did that "relaunch" the other week go...?
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    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    She seems to view herself as a Liberal Democrat agent inside the Tory Party.
    A bit like @TSE then? :-)

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    Either way I expect Corbyn survives
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    John_M said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    Actually the latest polls on the subject have most British voters wanting May to have a goid relationship with Trump even if (apart from UKIP voters) they preferred Hillary. Trump is the most powerful man in the world of course and the U.S. the largest individual national destination for UK exports. I also doubt the average Brexit voter is much concerned over potential human rights violations of possible terrorists
    You obviously don't have a high opinion of Brexit voters. (I don't either but I don't believe they're supporters of torture)
    Even if you think Brexit voters are amoral neanderthals, and leaving all issues of morality aside, the practical issue with torture is that it's ineffective and counterproductive on several levels. Not least of which is that it seriously fucks up relationships with other members of the Five Eyes IC.

    *edit* I wanted to add that reporting on the Orange One is so distorted (on all sides), I'm already reduced to having to read the original text in his assorted XOs, proclamations and memoranda. Journalists should be ashamed of themselves.
    It's all about 'brands'. The 'Trump brand' is many things from 'Champion of the Little Man' to 'Right Wing Popuiist'. The introduction of 'Torture' is one of those things which is powerful enough to be defining on its own. It's like Assad's 'Killing his Own People'. Meaningless in a civil war but it sticks. Unbelievable though it appears I'd say this is the first serious dent in the Trump brand
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    I think Professor Schama has overdosed on the hyperbole pills this morning

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/824526770913341440
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    She seems to view herself as a Liberal Democrat agent inside the Tory Party.
    A bit like @TSE then? :-)

    Naughty!
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    Scott_P said:
    He's the leader of the free world. She'd say the same whether with or without Brexit.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Jonathan said:

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    Calm down.

    We'd be engaging with Trump even if we'd voted to Remain in the EU. And the best way to influence him is probably to laud him in public, but warn him in private.

    It's what we do.
    Wondering what it would take for us not to fawn over a US president. And what would we say if a new middle eastern despot said torture works.
    What do you want May to do? Come on, stop whining, and lay out the foreign policy position for us.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Eagles, sounds like he's been reading the book of Everyone I Dislike Is Hitler.

    On a related note, I'll be posting a brief ramble, probably tomorrow, about Milo and Clodius.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Whether you agree or disagree with her on this particular issue Sarah Wallaston has become a royal pain in the ass for the party leadership and has almost singlehandedly put me off primaries for selecting candidates. It encourages a degree of independence not compatible with good governance, especially when there is only a small majority.
    She seems to view herself as a Liberal Democrat agent inside the Tory Party.
    A bit like @TSE then? :-)

    Tut!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    Jonathan said:

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    Calm down.

    We'd be engaging with Trump even if we'd voted to Remain in the EU. And the best way to influence him is probably to laud him in public, but warn him in private.

    It's what we do.
    And what would we say if a new middle eastern despot said torture works.
    We'd say "Would you like to buy a new squadron of jet fighters, Your Excellency?"
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, sounds like he's been reading the book of Everyone I Dislike Is Hitler.

    On a related note, I'll be posting a brief ramble, probably tomorrow, about Milo and Clodius.

    Professor Schama seems to have lost it since he stopped teaching at the finest university in the world and moved to America.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Eagles, US universities are even worse than ours for tosh.

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    Shouldn't she be going to the Kremlin then?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Scott_P said:
    What would he have her do? Call Trump a c*nt, and tell him to go f*ck himself?

    His narcissism and self-centred personality demand that we flatter him - because such individuals are susceptible to flattery, and it's the obvious diplomatic strategy.

    Yes, it might come to nothing, in which case we can change course, but it is more likely to work to our advantage.
  • Options
    I've been asked to go campaign in Copeland.

    Sadly I can't go, otherwise it would have been a nailed on Tory gain.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Incidentally, today is the penultimate day of the Saint Francis' sale [patron saint of writers] so do snap up Kingdom Asunder today:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/

    Also, by chance, Journeys (an anthology in which I have a short story, and which features contributions from authors such as Adrian Tchaikovsky and Julia Knight) is also on pre-order sale.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    "Government ministers are hopeful of gaining better access to a large market for high quality British cheese in the US."

    Seriously?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump

    The next two days are going to be painful, aren't they? Our Prime Minister prostrating herself at the feet of a lying sexual predator who surrounds himself with white supremacists and a fawning Tory press telling us what a triumph it is. Maggie and Ronnie, part two.

    But at least we will sell more Stilton in high-end New York restaurants. That'll make up for leaving the Single Market.

    Calm down.

    We'd be engaging with Trump even if we'd voted to Remain in the EU. And the best way to influence him is probably to laud him in public, but warn him in private.

    It's what we do.
    And what would we say if a new middle eastern despot said torture works.
    We'd say "Would you like to buy a new squadron of jet fighters, Your Excellency?"
    "Before we sit down to talk business: I must warn you about human rights violations.

    You have just been warned about human right violations.

    Tea?"
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
    I meant a 5% swing to Labour.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
    FWIW, I think Copeland very close (Tories may just scrape a win) but Labour will comfortably hold Stoke.

    If UKIP were as organised and experienced as the Lib Dems, I would think differently.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    edited January 2017
    From this morning's Red Box email

    In one of parliament's dustier committee rooms, Labour MPs gathered last night to learn their grim fate.

    Hours earlier Jeremy Corbyn had stood at the dispatch box at PMQs and paid a fitting tribute to a police officer shot dead in the line of duty, were it not for the small matter of the officer still being very much alive.

    As MPs gathered for last night's polling briefing, the humour was dark. "It doesn't matter if the solider is alive or not," said one. "We're all dead."

    As each PowerPoint chart flashed up on a screen, the mood worsened. Not only do people not want to vote for Labour, but they don't even believe the party is on their side. Even among black and Asian voters, upon whom Labour could once depend, there is a suspicion that the party is now more interested in opening Britain up to newcomers.

    In 2015 Ed Miliband had hoped one more heave would put Labour back in power. Today every Labour MP is in a fight for their survival. "It's not about building a majority, it's about building lifeboats," one former frontbencher says.

    A word cloud showing what voters thought were Labour's faults appeared. Two words dominated: "Jeremy" and "Corbyn". "It wasn't a Magic Eye picture where you had to stare for ages to see what the message was," an MP says. "It was there for all to see." No prominent members of the shadow cabinet were there, just backbenchers who had their worst fears confirmed.

    A new YouGov poll spells out the problem. The Tories are on 40 per cent, 16 points ahead of Labour on 24 per cent. Disbelieving Labour MPs asked last night why it was that as many as a quarter of voters were still willing to back their party. "It's just a coincidence that one in four people have mental health problems," is a dark joke doing the rounds.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:
    What would he have her do? Call Trump a c*nt, and tell him to go f*ck himself?

    His narcissism and self-centred personality demand that we flatter him - because such individuals are susceptible to flattery, and it's the obvious diplomatic strategy.

    Yes, it might come to nothing, in which case we can change course, but it is more likely to work to our advantage.
    Well obviously that would be impossible. The C word is banned on PB and it would be very tricky for us to discuss it on here.

    As for May, sadly and unluckily it is the optics that look bad. Of course to be one of the first to see POTUS is good but what with everything going on on both sides of the Atlantic, it looks very very bad.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    edited January 2017

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
    All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Excellent article:

    No one knows where Labour stands on Brexit. That’s a great cliche of the moment. But like most cliches it is true. Labour is for and against free movement. Labour is for full access to the single market and against full access to the single market. Labour will not block article 50 but some of its MPs will vote against. On Europe Labour is in a deep crisis.

    But here is the twist. At key moments Labour has never known where it stood on Europe. The current incoherent division is not freakishly new. Instead it is part of a pattern. In the early 1970s half of Labour’s frontbench was passionately in favour of the UK joining the EEC and the other half was unswervingly against, with titans on either side of the debate.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/25/labour-brexit-chaos-tear-party-apart-splits-europe?CMP=share_btn_tw
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gareth Snell is a very perceptive and astute about politics judging by those tweets.
    If Labour lose Copeland and Stoke Corbynistas can simply blame it on the fact both Labour candidates were not true believers in the Messiah but backed Owen Smith and so the faithful stayed at home and they probably will
    I expect Labour will hold both, fairly comfortably (say a swing of 5%). Paradoxically, that will be a bad result, as it will persuade the party that there's no need to change leader.
    A 5% swing would deliver Copeland to the Tories.
    I meant a 5% swing to Labour.
    I have phoned in Copeland, it may be close but there will definitely be no swing to Labour
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,436

    Scott_P said:
    He's the leader of the free world. She'd say the same whether with or without Brexit.
    No he's not. That position exists - if it still exists - by consent. It is either vacant or entirely redundant.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    Shouldn't she be going to the Kremlin then?
    She met Putin at the G20
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    This could be a very tricky time for May.

    Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.

    Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.

    As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
    As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
    And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
    Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.

    There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.

    Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
    All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
    Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?

    Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
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