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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just released: Latest PB/Polling Matter podcast with its exclusive Opinium poll findings on BREXIT
On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Labour blogger and political activist Jade Azim and Addin365 CEO and tech entrepreneur Suzy Dean to discuss the recent women’s march, feminism and whether Britain made a mistake in deciding to leave the European Union.
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https://twitter.com/chrisjames_90/status/824386195253772288
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/824335763236077572
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/824380960657522699
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/824392987664846849
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/25/government-reported-to-be-planning-to-nationalise-southern-rail-franchise
Guys'n'gals, we are leaving. Brexit means Brexit. The decision has been taken. It's irreversible. It may well be a mistake, but it's going to happen. The emphasis now should be on getting the best deal with our EU friends - something which is not at all helped by MPs trying to impose conditions, which the EU can exploit as an excuse for a worse deal - and on mitigating the external risks by embracing such advantages as Brexit gives us.
I don't personally think the results will be on balance favourable, at least in the timescale of say three years, but we are where we are, and need to do the best we can.
Meanwhile Theresa May says the US and Britain will "lead together again". When have the US and Britain ever led other countries together?
https://twitter.com/JonCollett/status/824394258190921728
Maybe this or that should have happened in the past, but so what? As you say we are where we are.
Mr Snell is a Newcastle borough councilor for Silverdale and Parksite, and previously led the authority from 2012 to 2014. He lost his seat in 2014 but returned to the authority in a council by-election last year. Following his victory in the by-election Mr Snell said it had 'nothing to do with Corbyn'.
..
Mr Snell, who previously worked for Dr Hunt, said: "I'm delighted to have been chosen by local Labour members here in Stoke-on-Trent Central to be the voice of local people. I'm proud to come from the Potteries and even prouder to be standing to represent our home in Parliament.
"Labour has always stood up for local people here in Stoke-on-Trent, whether it's building our first hospital in 100 years or defending vital children's centres.
"The Tories haven't done anything for our city and now they're trying to sell of £1.2 billion of cancer and end-of-life care in North Staffordshire. And Ukip's plans for our NHS are clear - sell it off to the highest bidder.
"Only Labour will do what is needed to get a fair deal for the people of Stoke-on-Trent Central."
http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/labour-members-choose-stoke-on-trent-central-candidate/story-30087428-detail/story.html
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/822028909420150784
https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/824256333000146944
I like Jezzas hands off approach to selections.
Good grief they have even less sense than I thought.
And I didn't think they had much to start with....
https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/824229458940989442
We have now come full circle. The Left is now in favour of racial and sexual apartheid, the only difference being that the hierarchy has been reversed rather than abolished.
No thanks!
Following someone to the cubicle etc is not O.K.
Opinium Research 25th January 2017
Brexit
Right decision 52%
Wrong decision 38%
Dont know 9%
From those figures it looks like the Country just wants to get on and leave
Section 4 is the only part of the amendment that has never been invoked.[24] It allows the Vice President, together with a "majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide", to declare the President disabled by submitting a written declaration to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. As with Section 3, the Vice President would become Acting President.
Section 4 is meant to be invoked should the President's incapacitation prevent him from discharging his duties, but he is unable or unwilling to provide the written declaration called for by Section 3. The President may resume exercising the Presidential duties by sending a written declaration to the President pro tempore and the Speaker of the House.
Should the Vice President and Cabinet believe the President is still disabled, they may within four days of the President's declaration submit another declaration that the President is incapacitated. If not already in session, the Congress must then assemble within 48 hours. The Congress has 21 days to decide the issue. If within the 21 days two-thirds of each house of Congress vote that the President is incapacitated, the Vice President would "continue" to be Acting President. Should the Congress resolve the issue in favor of the President, or make no decision within the 21 days allotted, then the President would "resume" discharging the powers and duties of his office. The use of the words "continue" and "resume" imply that the Vice President remains Acting President while Congress deliberates.
However, the President may again submit a written declaration of recovery to the President pro tempore and the Speaker of the House. That declaration could be responded to by the Acting President and the Cabinet in the same way as stated earlier. The specified 21-day Congressional procedure would start again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Vice_Presidential.E2.80.93Cabinet_declaration
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/25/donald-trump-orders-establishment-safe-zones-syria/
President Trump is ordering the Pentagon and State Department to develop a series of “safe zones” in Syria, a move that administration critics claims could draw the U.S. military deeper into the country’s civil war.
Target: Fillon.
The more the EU look to be jerking us around after Article 50 is triggered, the more will think it the right decision. And if the EU decide to play nice, and don't actually want half the dog - then the fears around Brexit will subside - and the more will be satisfied it was the right decision.
With the LibDems looking like Brussels' useful idiots.
Massive pile of Sh*t
Sloppy Labour, Messy Labour,
Quit Quit Quit....
That being the case, one might have hoped and expected that instead of all the talk about the need to severely "punish" Britain and the British for our foolishness, our once close partners would turn their attention instead to trying to understand why it was that we came to take such a traumatic decision.
@pwnallthethings
But torture really is a red line. UK and US will both be cripplingly harmed if the US restarts the torture program. Let me go thru the steps
Step1 is the UK goes to a lot of work to check if it's actually true. What is the US really up to? Is it really as bad as it sounds?
Step 2 is the UK summons the US ambassador for a "meeting without coffee". Basically UK's F-Sec explains what happens if policy goes ahead.
Step 3 is the frighteningly lame sounding "Exchange of Letters". But it's basically a last warning.
Step 4 is where shit gets real. GCHQ cancels UK-US CT sharing in theatres of operation where torture might reasonably take place
Step 5 is the UK evicts the NSA integrees and recalls the GCHQ integrees. The loss to both here is really pretty unimaginable.
Step 6 is UK basically puts the US into the tier set of IC partners that need caution. Also in this set: Pakistan, Saudi, Afghanistan etc.
No matter how much info beating the shit out of a detainee gives CIA, it's unlikely it'll be worth sacrificing the NSA-GCHQ CT relnship over
The article says "restarts the torture program". Why did what was outlined not happen before (or maybe it did)?
British involvement in controversial and clandestine rendition operations provoked an unprecedented row between the UK’s domestic and foreign intelligence services, MI5 and MI6, at the height of the “war on terror”, the Guardian can reveal.
The head of MI5, Eliza Manningham-Buller, was so incensed when she discovered the role played by MI6 in abductions that led to suspected extremists being tortured, she threw out a number of her sister agency’s staff and banned them from working at MI5’s headquarters, Thames House.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/31/revealed-britain-rendition-policy-rift-between-spy-agencies-mi6-mi5
Following the Law Lords ruling in 2008 (which would have standing in the other Five Eyes countries) that torture and its fruits have no place in Common Law jurisdictions - and haven't for 500 years - it could also end cooperation between the US and balance Five Eyes and the EU (for what its worth) too....
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/rmhttp/radio4/transcripts/2011_reith4.pdf
Torture is illegal in our national law and in international law. It is wrong and never justified. It is a sadness and worse that the previous government of our great ally, the United States, chose to water-board some detainees. The argument that life- saving intelligence was thereby obtained, and I accept it was, still does not justify it. Torture should be utterly rejected even when it may offer the prospect of saving lives.
I am proud my Service refused to turn to the torture of high-level German prisoners in the Second World War, when, in the early years, we stood alone and there was a high risk of our being invaded and becoming a Nazi province. So if not then, why should it be justified now?
I believe that the acquisition of short-term gain through water-boarding and other forms of mistreatment was a profound mistake and lost the United States moral authority and some of the widespread sympathy it had enjoyed as a result of 9/11.
And I am confident that I know the answer to the question of whether torture has made the world a safer place. It hasn’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/libyan-dissident-abdel-hakim-belhaj-wins-right-to-sue-uk-government-over-rendition
A top Republican leader pushed back against a proposed presidential order that would reexamine more aggressive interrogation techniques against terrorist detainees, telling reporters that torture is illegal.
Employing waterboarding again "would take a change in the law, and Congress is on record," Senate Republican Conference Chair John Thune told reporters Wednesday afternoon. "With respect to torture, that's banned… we view that to be a matter of settled law."
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2017/01/25/waterboarding-john-thune-executive-order-interrogation-terrorism.html?via=desktop&source=copyurl
I would love to think we would take a principled stand against torture... But would we really cut off things with the Us like this?
1. Full blown denial amongst many in the party over the Copeland canvass return leak. Have heard internally that the leak was accurate, so things really are that bad on the ground. Can be turned around of course but not the place any campaign would like to start.
2. Selection of a hard Remainer in Stoke an inspired move. He's now moved on to "we have to hold the Tories to account on A50" whereas Eddie Hitler for UKIP will be doing the piedmont piper bit and telling people to follow the pretty pipe music to a WTO deal and ignore the cowards warning against. If Labour retain the seat a nuanced argument on Brexit can be rolled out everywhere.
3. If we lose both - and I think we probably will - even my local Momentum activists are saying it's the end for Corbyn. They describe "the nutters" as disagreeing, but apparently there was a showdown with "the nutters" over the new Momentum constitution where they put up an argument against internal democracy and the need for party membership (as Trots they're barred from the party), we're voted down and promptly invited to leave the meeting. Perhaps there is a place for Jeremy for Labour Ltd after all...
Suggesting to him that ‘together we can lead the world’ would mean to him that the UK will do what the US wants and that everyone else can go hang.
...the English common law has regarded torture and its fruits with abhorrence for over 500 years
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldjudgmt/jd051208/aand.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/theresa-may-to-tell-the-us-we-can-lead-together-again-donald-trump
How can she have a "grown up" relationship with a giant man-baby?
Is this the special relationship were looking for?
Edit... One of the dangers with Trump is that because I believe him capable of some crazy stuff... I'm likely to believe crazy stories like this.
The story might not be true.
McCluskey have his UNITE leadership warming a disciplinary final written warning for speaking to a meeting of Labour MPs.
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/824306705622245377
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/01/trudy-harrison-is-selected-as-conservative-candidate-for-copeland-cchq-is-economical-with-her-cv.html
Given that the prophesies of doom have not materialised to any substantial extent, and that talk of back of the queue can be seen to be nonsense now, it's inevitable that some will conclude they were misled by the Remain campaign.
Some of the runners...
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/01/william_pryor_has_no_place_on_the_supreme_court.html