Surely passports would be the easiest way of keeping everyone happy.
By default blue passports are issued, but for an extra 50 quid say you can keep the red one and freedom of movement within Europe.
Since it is elective and costs a bit I think most people would go for the blue ones. Perhaps half a million people would go for red ones ? Diehard leavers wouldn't... or would they ?
You jest, but I suspect that for regular business travellers to the EU - or UK residents with 2nd homes out there - some sort of expedited fast-track visa at £50 per year may well be there so they can flick through the EEA/EFTA channel quickly.
I suspect everyday tourists will still have to queue (as we do today) in the usual non-Schengen way.
First poll I have seen that shows a proportion of Remainers embracing the fait accompli. I know they exist because am acquainted with a couple of them, including my wife. It will be interesting to see if that acceptance spreads to a consensus.
There is a slight movement in that direction, but not much 7 months on, before the real process starts. It is going to be a divided nation for the foreaable, with not much margin if it all goes tits up.
My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.
My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.
Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.
It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
May of course backed Remain and is no libertarian despite all the hard Brexit talk I expect she will still make some compromises down the line
Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.
Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.
There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.
Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?
Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.
£25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.
Deal?
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
If the EU is to survive, it has to become a single country with a federal structure.
No, it really doesn't.
Yes it really does - at least if it wants to keep the single currency and long term stability. Both the architects of the EU and most of its current leadership know this. It is mostly British Europhiles who try to deny this either out of ignorance or fear.
Mr. Herdson, depends on what Brawn/Liberty come up with. I can imagine Ecclestone getting crap circuits in dodgy countries on-side. Ferrari would be glad to have some back-up for their inevitable threat to leave if they don't get $100m for turning up. Other big teams would use it to try and screw concessions from Liberty.
F1 right now is weaker than it should be, ironically because of Ecclestone's behaviour over the last decade or so.
NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
You missed the word 'decent'
It is the refusal of some Remoaners and Hillary voters to see Leave and Trump voters as anything other than ignorant oiks which goes some way to explain why they lost
There's no doubt that some Leave voters are ignorant oiks, if that's how you want to describe DEs. Poor, uneducated and unlikely to have grasped the significance of the EMA to the UK pharma industry and so forth. They're still entitled to vote as they see fit.
We should be grateful. A century ago the Left were flirting with eugenics. At least they've dialled it back to de haut en bas disdain.
Indeed but as long as they keep up that attitude the white working class will not be coming back to them anytime soon
Ditto in America, if you look at that video of the Democrat candidate for thingummy saying her job is to "shut white people up"
The slow intentional suicide of the Left, in the West, thanks to an insane concentration on nauseating identity politics, will make several great books in a couple of decades
Yes, the white working class are probably lost to them now if they are to win again it will be through a combination of the ethnic minority vote and white graduates
The Democrats were only ~ 0.2% or so away from taking the election, the notion that somehow they are 'forever lost' is ridiculous - albeit I do think Trump will win a second term.
If the Democrats had won ~ 40% or so of the WWC they'd have won ! Trump got 63% or so from memory.
Even Obama lost the white working class despite winning nationally
Most people who voted in the EU referendum voted Leave.
Those who didn't.. don't count.
This is not a criticism aimed at you, but it has tickled me how various people (funnily enough, all Remainers) have chopped and changed the numbers and thresholds over the last 7 months trying to construct an arithmetic way of delegitimising the result.
The only argument I'd have (some) sympathy with is that we're getting our Brexit fairly good & hard, despite the 48%. But I think polling shows why May will get away with it.
A narrow win can still be a very decisive one.
Sure. But I think you miss an important point. A point that kills governments and where Blair especially went wrong.
Blair never got more than 50% of the vote. He only ever got about one third of the electorate voting for him.
Now whilst that doesn't delegitimise his government, it should have impacted HOW he governed.
Because of his massive majority he thought he was popular when he never was. He should have governed more modestly, recognising that he had not convinced 66% of electorate. It was this hubris that undid him.
This applies to all governments before and since. It also applies to the EU vote.
Those that didn't vote for you or didn't vote, count.
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.
Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.
There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.
Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?
Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.
£25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.
Deal?
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
Do you want the bet, or are you all Ode to Joy but no Jean Monnet ?
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
MTV withdrew it soon after. Horror show. Just hideous. The Progressive American Left is possibly WORSE than the British.
e.g. I can't imagine a major UK party leader calling half of Britain a "basket of deplorables". Not even Corbyn is that dim.
Is he?
The explicit 'you can have Kayne West' really said it all - he's a black non-person because he doesn't vote like them - in a video all about white men.
NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
The vast majority of Americans in whatever state will have no idea who she is and no interest in the meeting.
Generally that is true but the media coverage across the US of the first foreign leader to meet Trump will create the interest.
It is also an ongoing relationship and her influence on him or otherwise will feature in the narrative and on a more trivial note her appearance in April on the front of American Vogue will be good for her and our fashion industry.
It is time to start batting for the UK and put away all the doom and gloom.
Listening to the clear anti Brexit narrative coming from MP's with the obvious intention of delaying or stopping exit is going to see an increasing anger among voters who now just want to get on with it
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO. This is - of course - absolutely nothing to do with the EU.
1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50
2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
OK, do you want a bet on what happens on the triggering of A50 in March?
I bet you £1000 there won't be an immediate recession as predicted by the Treasury, etc
Up for it?
I can get better than 3/1 with William Hill on such a bet, so no ta.
lol. You and I both know there won't be an immediate recession after A50. So the Treasury was wrong.
The one thing they did get right was sterling. They were highly accurate on that. Odd.
Current growth is being achieved by the government relaxing austerity and borrowing more and by increased consumer spending funded by debt. Economic growth is simply being brought forward rather than created so its not surprising that the currency drop is about right, even if GDP is higher than predicted.
Normally the right would be going ape at our unbalanced economy but since Brexit trumps all, there is silence.
Most people who voted in the EU referendum voted Leave.
Those who didn't.. don't count.
This is not a criticism aimed at you, but it has tickled me how various people (funnily enough, all Remainers) have chopped and changed the numbers and thresholds over the last 7 months trying to construct an arithmetic way of delegitimising the result.
The only argument I'd have (some) sympathy with is that we're getting our Brexit fairly good & hard, despite the 48%. But I think polling shows why May will get away with it.
A narrow win can still be a very decisive one.
Sure. But I think you miss an important point. A point that kills governments and where Blair especially went wrong.
Blair never got more than 50% of the vote. He only ever got about one third of the electorate voting for him.
Now whilst that doesn't delegitimise his government, it should have impacted HOW he governed.
Because of his massive majority he thought he was popular when he never was. He should have governed more modestly, recognising that he had not convinced 66% of electorate. It was this hubris that undid him.
This applies to all governments before and since. It also applies to the EU vote.
Leave got 52% of the vote.
There are three domestic political problems with the EU vote: (1) Scotland, (2) Northern Ireland and (3) the Economy.
It's that which must be navigated by May so she can restabilise the body politik around a new consensus.
She will never convince the 25% of die-hard Europhiles.
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO. This is - of course - absolutely nothing to do with the EU.
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
An unwieldy size in my trousers hasn't historically been a problem for me.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
The irony here is that because the Labour Stoke candidate is so anti-Corbyn, a loss there (especially if Copeland is held) will be taken by the Labour leadership as a sign that the party is insufficiently left wing.
1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50
2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
OK, do you want a bet on what happens on the triggering of A50 in March?
I bet you £1000 there won't be an immediate recession as predicted by the Treasury, etc
Up for it?
I can get better than 3/1 with William Hill on such a bet, so no ta.
lol. You and I both know there won't be an immediate recession after A50. So the Treasury was wrong.
The one thing they did get right was sterling. They were highly accurate on that. Odd.
Current growth is being achieved by the government relaxing austerity and borrowing more and by increased consumer spending funded by debt. Economic growth is simply being brought forward rather than created so its not surprising that the currency drop is about right, even if GDP is higher than predicted.
Normally the right would be going ape at our unbalanced economy but since Brexit trumps all, there is silence.
Except as we were discussing yesterday the deficit figures are beating expectations. We have borrowed billions LESS than forecast not more. How do you square that?
Most people who voted in the EU referendum voted Leave.
Those who didn't.. don't count.
This is not a criticism aimed at you, but it has tickled me how various people (funnily enough, all Remainers) have chopped and changed the numbers and thresholds over the last 7 months trying to construct an arithmetic way of delegitimising the result.
The only argument I'd have (some) sympathy with is that we're getting our Brexit fairly good & hard, despite the 48%. But I think polling shows why May will get away with it.
A narrow win can still be a very decisive one.
Sure. But I think you miss an important point. A point that kills governments and where Blair especially went wrong.
Blair never got more than 50% of the vote. He only ever got about one third of the electorate voting for him.
Now whilst that doesn't delegitimise his government, it should have impacted HOW he governed.
Because of his massive majority he thought he was popular when he never was. He should have governed more modestly, recognising that he had not convinced 66% of electorate. It was this hubris that undid him.
This applies to all governments before and since. It also applies to the EU vote.
Leave got 52% of the vote.
There are three domestic political problems with the EU vote: (1) Scotland, (2) Northern Ireland and (3) the Economy.
It's that which must be navigated by May so she can restabilise the body politik around a new consensus.
She will never convince the 25% of die-hard Europhiles.
Now, I must work.
If she governs recognising that the country is split and (as you say) the nations & London voted strongly the other way, she will do better than a "Leave won, shut up" approach.
She may never convince the 25%, but she needs to come up with something that they can live with or this will bang on and on and on and ultimately undo her.
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO. This is - of course - absolutely nothing to do with the EU.
1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50
2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
OK, do you want a bet on what happens on the triggering of A50 in March?
I bet you £1000 there won't be an immediate recession as predicted by the Treasury, etc
Up for it?
I can get better than 3/1 with William Hill on such a bet, so no ta.
lol. You and I both know there won't be an immediate recession after A50. So the Treasury was wrong.
The one thing they did get right was sterling. They were highly accurate on that. Odd.
Current growth is being achieved by the government relaxing austerity and borrowing more and by increased consumer spending funded by debt. Economic growth is simply being brought forward rather than created so its not surprising that the currency drop is about right, even if GDP is higher than predicted.
Normally the right would be going ape at our unbalanced economy but since Brexit trumps all, there is silence.
Except as we were discussing yesterday the deficit figures are beating expectations. We have borrowed billions LESS than forecast not more. How do you square that?
We still have the second largest government deficit of the world's 10 largest economies, the highest level of consumer debt, and the worst current account. So, I wouldn't get too cocky.
NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
The vast majority of Americans in whatever state will have no idea who she is and no interest in the meeting.
Generally that is true but the media coverage across the US of the first foreign leader to meet Trump will create the interest.
It is also an ongoing relationship and her influence on him or otherwise will feature in the narrative and on a more trivial note her appearance in April on the front of American Vogue will be good for her and out fashion industry.
It is time to start batting for the UK and put away all the doom and gloom.
Listening to the clear anti Brexit narrative coming from MP's with the obvious intention of delaying or stopping exit is going to see an increasing anger among voter who now just want to get on with it
Only if he does something out of the ordinary like pissing on her.... well maybe more out of the ordinary than that
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO. This is - of course - absolutely nothing to do with the EU.
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
I agree.
Incidentally, you mentioned automation, and I agree with that too, its going to transform everything.
But automation almost certainly means we're going to need far FEWER workers. It also means that everyone in Europe is going to be chasing, even more than they are now, a likely dwindling number of jobs. So we've chosen the right time to lower immigration, and to end Free Movement, choosing who we want to come here.
This is a massively important point which everyone seems to miss. The assumption is that countries need immigration to grow. And up til now, in advanced western countries with low birth rates, that's been true. But in ten years time? Almost certainly not.
Another damn good reason for Brexit.
You do realise that the automation bell has been rung about 200 times before, right?
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO. This is - of course - absolutely nothing to do with the EU.
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
I agree.
Incidentally, you mentioned automation, and I agree with that too, its going to transform everything.
But automation almost certainly means we're going to need far FEWER workers. It also means that everyone in Europe is going to be chasing, even more than they are now, a likely dwindling number of jobs. So we've chosen the right time to lower immigration, and to end Free Movement, choosing who we want to come here.
This is a massively important point which everyone seems to miss. The assumption is that countries need immigration to grow. And up til now, in advanced western countries with low birth rates, that's been true. But in ten years time? Almost certainly not.
Another damn good reason for Brexit.
That is the paradox of those on the left. Theres a lot of talk about automation and the need for a basic income etc etc, but that's simply incompatable with high immigration. Both aspects cannot logically continue.
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
I really don't care about the colour of my passport. I do care whether it fits conveniently in my trouser pocket. Could those Leavers who do get very excited about passport colours confirm whether they are also wetting themselves in anticipation of a return to the previous unwieldy size?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO. This is - of course - absolutely nothing to do with the EU.
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
I agree.
Incidentally, you mentioned automation, and I agree with that too, its going to transform everything.
But automation almost certainly means we're going to need far FEWER workers. It also means that everyone in Europe is going to be chasing, even more than they are now, a likely dwindling number of jobs. So we've chosen the right time to lower immigration, and to end Free Movement, choosing who we want to come here.
This is a massively important point which everyone seems to miss. The assumption is that countries need immigration to grow. And up til now, in advanced western countries with low birth rates, that's been true. But in ten years time? Almost certainly not.
Another damn good reason for Brexit.
You do realise that the automation bell has been rung about 200 times before, right?
Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.
Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
On Brexit, what I regret is that inflexibility and stupidity on both sides have landed us in a situation which will likely cause disruption and pain to those least able to survive it and which could, with a bit of common-sense and thought, been avoided. I regret the vicious way in which some on both sides talk about those who take a different view, one reason why I am not revealing my vote because I can do without the abuse, frankly. I regret the fact that the EU does not seem to have asked itself in any meaningful way whether its behaviour might possibly have had something to do with the way the British voted and I regret this not because it will make much difference to Britain but because such self-delusion and indifference bodes ill for the people in the EU.
But, frankly, that is not really the issue for me. Trump's election has changed matters and if the facts change, as Keynes once said, why shouldn't opinions change too? That's not being regretful. It's being sensible.
What I really loathe is the way British PMs feel the need to prostrate themselves before US Presidents. Why can't we have some self-respect, for heaven's sake?
The idea that we should suck up to a President who seems to have no moral qualms about torture and thinks that it works and blithely says so is a bit much.
Yes - we have to do realpolitik. Yes - we have build a working relationship with the new regime. But do we have to be so fawning and so delusional: "Together we can lead the world"? For crying out loud, what fantasy world do Downing Street speech writers live in? What planet are our politicians on?
Britain can set an example. One example would be to be realistic about ourselves. Another would be to make it clear that we do not use torture and that if British values and America's conceit of itself as a "shining hill" mean anything, they mean that we don't behave like medieval autocrats.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. Not that this particularly stresses me.
More important to me is the report today saying rough sleeping has doubled in the UK? Why? Immigration, especially from Eastern Europe. You see it all over London, Lithuanians,. Bulgarians, Romanians - many Roma, indeed. They live in squalid and unhappy shanties in London underpasses. Which can be very menacing late at night.
After Brexit we can gently send them home.
Rough sleeping is noticeably worse. Anecdotally back to where it was when the Tories were last in.
Again we're not talking about that, because were all talking about bloody Brexit.
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
I agree.
Incidentally, you mentioned automation, and I agree with that too, its going to transform everything.
But automation almost certainly means we're going to need far FEWER workers. It also means that everyone in Europe is going to be chasing, even more than they are now, a likely dwindling number of jobs. So we've chosen the right time to lower immigration, and to end Free Movement, choosing who we want to come here.
This is a massively important point which everyone seems to miss. The assumption is that countries need immigration to grow. And up til now, in advanced western countries with low birth rates, that's been true. But in ten years time? Almost certainly not.
Another damn good reason for Brexit.
The UK grew quite nicely though the 80s and 90s (the odd recession notwithstanding), without high net migration. We've discussed the reasons for that growth before, so I shan't recap.
The inflection point for global population is approaching (the Chinese think their's will peak in 2030 - their working age population has already peaked).
We've got some tricky issues to navigate over the next few decades, the EU is a relatively minor issue; at worst, a few years of trend growth. How a nation state manages its tax base in a post-work world is going to be rather more challenging.
Fortunately, I shall probably have joined the choir invisible before the shit really hits the fan.
Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.
Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
Once we have formally left, established a new UK-EU trade arrangement, have several new trade deals in the pipeline, and May can demonstrate table some quick wins with the new powers, it will shift even more.
There are some very easy politically popular things May can do: bring back the blue passport, re-permitting the sale of loose items in pounds and ounces, announcing cuts in immigration, and giving an extra slug of cash to the NHS.
Getting through the next 2 years is the tough bit.
All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?
Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.
£25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.
Deal?
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
Do you want the bet, or are you all Ode to Joy but no Jean Monnet ?
OK I'll bet. If I win send the proceeds to the Lib Dems.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. .
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
I agree.
Incidentally, you mentioned automation, and I agree with that too, its going to transform everything.
But automation almost certainly means we're going to need far FEWER workers. It also means that everyone in Europe is going to be chasing, even more than they are now, a likely dwindling number of jobs. So we've chosen the right time to lower immigration, and to end Free Movement, choosing who we want to come here.
This is a massively important point which everyone seems to miss. The assumption is that countries need immigration to grow. And up til now, in advanced western countries with low birth rates, that's been true. But in ten years time? Almost certainly not.
Another damn good reason for Brexit.
That is the paradox of those on the left. Theres a lot of talk about automation and the need for a basic income etc etc, but that's simply incompatable with high immigration. Both aspects cannot logically continue.
Representative democracy is a system for managing political cleavage based on class (or economics, if you prefer to see it that way). The 21st century will be about race-based cleavage. Hence, freedom (including blogs like this) will be suppressed.
NYC and LA residents may not be too happy but given 30 out of 50 states backed Trump I expect their residents will be very happy she is meeting him
The vast majority of Americans in whatever state will have no idea who she is and no interest in the meeting.
Generally that is true but the media coverage across the US of the first foreign leader to meet Trump will create the interest.
It is also an ongoing relationship and her influence on him or otherwise will feature in the narrative and on a more trivial note her appearance in April on the front of American Vogue will be good for her and our fashion industry.
It is time to start batting for the UK and put away all the doom and gloom.
Listening to the clear anti Brexit narrative coming from MP's with the obvious intention of delaying or stopping exit is going to see an increasing anger among voters who now just want to get on with it
It's hard not to be doom-ridden and gloomy when you look at the swivel-eyed, anti-European Atlanticist who is charged with overseeing the creation of our new trading relationships. The idea of Liam Fox extracting any meaningful trade concessions from an America First administration led by Donald Trump strikes me as laughable - and one that comes close to making up for what we are about to lose is nothing more than a pipedream. What I find most depressing about Brexit is not the result, but that a lot of rich Leavers have told a lot of lies to people who are already struggling to get by; and that they succeeded because a lot of rich people on the other side also told a lot of lies.
1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50
2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
OK, do you want a bet on what happens on the triggering of A50 in March?
I bet you £1000 there won't be an immediate recession as predicted by the Treasury, etc
Up for it?
I can get better than 3/1 with William Hill on such a bet, so no ta.
lol. You and I both know there won't be an immediate recession after A50. So the Treasury was wrong.
The one thing they did get right was sterling. They were highly accurate on that. Odd.
Current growth is being achieved by the government relaxing austerity and borrowing more and by increased consumer spending funded by debt. Economic growth is simply being brought forward rather than created so its not surprising that the currency drop is about right, even if GDP is higher than predicted.
Normally the right would be going ape at our unbalanced economy but since Brexit trumps all, there is silence.
Except as we were discussing yesterday the deficit figures are beating expectations. We have borrowed billions LESS than forecast not more. How do you square that?
The forecast deficit figure was increased following the Brexit vote - we are beating that but not the original OBR forecast deficit figure from April 2016 or the figures the Treasury forecast was based on.
Also we will be borrowing more not just this year but for the next several years. When Brown was in power, GDP growth was normally achieved but always at the expense of higher than expected borrowing.
Finally consumer borrowing is way up and it is that which is fuelling our current GDP growth.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. Not that this particularly stresses me.
More important to me is the report today saying rough sleeping has doubled in the UK? Why? Immigration, especially from Eastern Europe. You see it all over London, Lithuanians,. Bulgarians, Romanians - many Roma, indeed. They live in squalid and unhappy shanties in London underpasses. Which can be very menacing late at night.
After Brexit we can gently send them home.
Rough sleeping is noticeably worse. Anecdotally back to where it was when the Tories were last in.
Again we're not talking about that, because were all talking about bloody Brexit.
It would be interesting to see the nationality breakdown of rough sleepers though.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop.
The irony here is that because the Labour Stoke candidate is so anti-Corbyn, a loss there (especially if Copeland is held) will be taken by the Labour leadership as a sign that the party is insufficiently left wing.
A bit odd not to have a Remainer on the list, but he seems less of a cry baby over the result than the other candidates, from what I have seen... saying that, he either wasn't on twitter before September or has deleted his tweets from before then.
Being anti Corbyn prob helps too I would have thought?
Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.
Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
On Brexit, what I regret is that inflexibility and stupidity on both sides have landed us in a situation which will likely cause disruption and pain to those least able to survive it and which could, with a bit of common-sense and thought, been avoided. I regret the vicious way in which some on both sides talk about those who take a different view, one reason why I am not revealing my vote because I can do without the abuse, frankly. I regret the fact that the EU does not seem to have asked itself in any meaningful way whether its behaviour might possibly have had something to do with the way the British voted and I regret this not because it will make much difference to Britain but because such self-delusion and indifference bodes ill for the people in the EU.
But, frankly, that is not really the issue for me. Trump's election has changed matters and if the facts change, as Keynes once said, why shouldn't opinions change too? That's not being regretful. It's being sensible.
What I really loathe is the way British PMs feel the need to prostrate themselves before US Presidents. Why can't we have some self-respect, for heaven's sake?
The idea that we should suck up to a President who seems to have no moral qualms about torture and thinks that it works and blithely says so is a bit much.
Yes - we have to do realpolitik. Yes - we have build a working relationship with the new regime. But do we have to be so fawning and so delusional: "Together we can lead the world"? For crying out loud, what fantasy world do Downing Street speech writers live in? What planet are our politicians on?
Britain can set an example. One example would be to be realistic about ourselves. Another would be to make it clear that we do not use torture and that if British values and America's conceit of itself as a "shining hill" mean anything, they mean that we don't behave like medieval autocrats.
1) That prediction was commensurate with an immediate triggering of Article 50
2) Osborne underestimated the resilience of his own economic miracle.
OK, do you want a bet on what happens on the triggering of A50 in March?
I bet you £1000 there won't be an immediate recession as predicted by the Treasury, etc
Up for it?
I can get better than 3/1 with William Hill on such a bet, so no ta.
lol. You and I both know there won't be an immediate recession after A50. So the Treasury was wrong.
The one thing they did get right was sterling. They were highly accurate on that. Odd.
Current growth is being achieved by the government relaxing austerity and borrowing more and by increased consumer spending funded by debt. Economic growth is simply being brought forward rather than created so its not surprising that the currency drop is about right, even if GDP is higher than predicted.
Normally the right would be going ape at our unbalanced economy but since Brexit trumps all, there is silence.
Except as we were discussing yesterday the deficit figures are beating expectations. We have borrowed billions LESS than forecast not more. How do you square that?
We still have the second largest government deficit of the world's 10 largest economies, the highest level of consumer debt, and the worst current account. So, I wouldn't get too cocky.
I'm not and that is concerning but there is little that can be done without inflicting carnage to.easily fix Brown's profligacy. The change in the government deficit is what matters most for the change in GDP and that change is that the deficit is coming DOWN faster than predicted. When was the last time that happened? If it happened more often we wouldn't be in this mess.
For well-off people such as yourself - people who will be shielded from any downsides of Brexit - that may well be the case. Further down the line, we will see whether that remains so for those who find their wages have not gone up, that their job security has decreased and that public spending has been cut. "Forget about all that, the government elected by 37% of the electorate is now free to reduce maternity leave and make it easier for your boss to fire you, and we can export more high-end cheese to the US, so rejoice," may not be the slam-dunk you think it is.
Indeed. Brexit was saddled with a lot of romantic twaddle divorced from the brutal realities of C21.
Sadly, imagery from WW2 is not going to help us solve the problems of globalisation, automation and an ageing population.
Brexit is the ultimate white elephant.
The ultimate white elephant is the EU itself. Ask the Greeks.
I just hope (one way or another) we get Brexit out of the way quickly, with minimal damage so we can actually tackle the real, pressing and dangerous problems.
I agree.
Incidentally, you mentioned automation, and I agree with that too, its going to transform everything.
But automation almost certainly means we're going to need far FEWER workers. It also means that everyone in Europe is going to be chasing, even more than they are now, a likely dwindling number of jobs. So we've chosen the right time to lower immigration, and to end Free Movement, choosing who we want to come here.
This is a massively important point which everyone seems to miss. The assumption is that countries need immigration to grow. And up til now, in advanced western countries with low birth rates, that's been true. But in ten years time? Almost certainly not.
Another damn good reason for Brexit.
You do realise that the automation bell has been rung about 200 times before, right?
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. Not that this particularly stresses me.
More important to me is the report today saying rough sleeping has doubled in the UK? Why? Immigration, especially from Eastern Europe. You see it all over London, Lithuanians,. Bulgarians, Romanians - many Roma, indeed. They live in squalid and unhappy shanties in London underpasses. Which can be very menacing late at night.
After Brexit we can gently send them home.
Rough sleeping is noticeably worse. Anecdotally back to where it was when the Tories were last in.
Again we're not talking about that, because were all talking about bloody Brexit.
But it is a Brexit issue. Sorry, but that is the case
"The breakdown also found that more than half the rough sleepers in London are foreigners. It said that just over 8,000 people were found bedding down on the street in London over the course of a year, and 4,675 of them were citizens of countries other than Britain.
More than 3,750 rough sleepers in London were from European countries, and more than 1,500 came from Romania. Romanian gangs have featured repeatedly in complaints that groups of rough sleepers are being bussed into central London for organised begging and crime operations."
Well lets hope Brexit negotiations find a humane solution for the these people and that the govt find a solution for the 50% that are home grown rough sleepers.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. .
Mr. Mortimer, me too. I suggested quite some time ago (ok, last year, but a hell of a lot has happened since) the PLP should, if they can't oust Corbyn, form a new party. But they haven't. And won't.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop.
Hidden Figures was a cracking film, I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more of Miss Henson.
Cosying up to a supporter of torture (because she has to) might alienate plenty of voters not to say Cons MPs.
Meanwhile despite the poll, it seems our very own @Cyclefree is a regretter. Not that we know how she voted so we should consider it on behalf of the country.
As the linkage is becoming stronger between Brexit and Trumpism the more doubting 'cyclefrees' we're likely to see. A bit of overeagerness from Farage is one thing but a smiling Mrs May next to 'Torturer Trump' is a quite different kettle of fish
As I said polling shows most voters want May to have a good relationship with the most powerful man in the world
And, as the excellent bar chart in the thread header shows, more people are moving towards Leave as the correct decision.
Once
All totally bonkers! Which is why I still believe there's a chance this unstopable force will meet it's immovable object'. Who other than a complete nutter would care less about the colour of their passport unless it meant a longer wait in the passport queue (which it probably would)
Why is it bonkers? You disagree, or you think I'm doolally?
Do you want a bet a change in our passport is announced by GE2020?
I don't know but even thinking about it puts you in the doolally category in my book.
I'll take that as a compliment, coming from you.
£25 at evens that HMG announces the intent of, or implements, a new UK passport design by GE2020 which will have a dark blue/black colour and removes the EU from it.
Deal?
Are you asking me to bet on whether Theresa May and her half baked administration are as doolally as you and the rest of the obsessives. Really?
Do you want the bet, or are you all Ode to Joy but no Jean Monnet ?
OK I'll bet. If I win send the proceeds to the Lib Dems.
OK, great. If I win send the proceeds to the Conservative Party. You're a decent sort so I'll trust your integrity to do this. Happy to exchange receipts too, if you wish for evidence.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. Not that this particularly stresses me.
More important to me is the report today saying rough sleeping has doubled in the UK? Why? Immigration, especially from Eastern Europe. You see it all over London, Lithuanians,. Bulgarians, Romanians - many Roma, indeed. They live in squalid and unhappy shanties in London underpasses. Which can be very menacing late at night.
After Brexit we can gently send them home.
Rough sleeping is noticeably worse. Anecdotally back to where it was when the Tories were last in.
Again we're not talking about that, because were all talking about bloody Brexit.
If we want to talk about domestic problems, it's these figures that worry me the most.
Deeply, deeply shocking. 37,784 self-harm incidents, 25,049 assault incidents and 119 suicides in *one* year.
I don't often say I'm ashamed of the UK, but our prison system is an absolute disgrace:
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. Not that this particularly stresses me.
More important to me is the report today saying rough sleeping has doubled in the UK? Why? Immigration, especially from Eastern Europe. You see it all over London, Lithuanians,. Bulgarians, Romanians - many Roma, indeed. They live in squalid and unhappy shanties in London underpasses. Which can be very menacing late at night.
After Brexit we can gently send them home.
Rough sleeping is noticeably worse. Anecdotally back to where it was when the Tories were last in.
Again we're not talking about that, because were all talking about bloody Brexit.
But it is a Brexit issue. Sorry, but that is the case
"The breakdown also found that more than half the rough sleepers in London are foreigners. It said that just over 8,000 people were found bedding down on the street in London over the course of a year, and 4,675 of them were citizens of countries other than Britain.
More than 3,750 rough sleepers in London were from European countries, and more than 1,500 came from Romania. Romanian gangs have featured repeatedly in complaints that groups of rough sleepers are being bussed into central London for organised begging and crime operations."
Well lets hope Brexit negotiations find a humane solution for the these people and that the govt find a solution for the 50% that are home grown rough sleepers.
Ben Judah's book, "This is London" covers this very issue of rough sleeping in opening chapters. He found masses of Romanians who had got into 'debt' with the people who promised them a new life in UK. The debt was impossible to pay and always going up. The rough sleepers collect money on streets or do busking to pay enough each night to stop the gangsters beating them up. Their family back home are known to the gangsters and are under constant threat of violence if the debtor doesn't pay up regularly.
iirc he found many people from the same village back home all sleeping in same underpass. In next underpass would be another village.
These people are totally trapped by the situation.
It is not their fault, but what a mess. How best to get them out of this?
Spanish government officials want to start negotiating a trade deal with the UK to take effect after Brexit, going against the official position of key negotiators in Brussels.
Pah, The Economist. The single most devalued journal in the world, post Brexit. It is almost unreadable on the subject - except they weep enjoyably ludicrous tears every week. Heh.
A very Trumpian response. Why read the message when you can shoot the messenger?
My PB interest, as it were, in Brexit is in the assumptions behind it. In particular: That Brexit will really go ahead and make a difference. That the EU will make us a good deal because they need us at least as much as we need them. That Brexit is an opening to the world because the rest of the world will do more with us.
My assessment is (and always has been) that Brexit will go ahead and change everything; that the EU is actually unable to offer us a good deal and won't want to anyway; that Brexit will see less partnership with the rest of the world, not more. That raises the question of why are we doing this when there's going to be enormous disruption to end up worse than we started.
Which leads us to the most interesting assumption, that the British people accept leaving the EU as a settled decision. I think they would like to. The British have never really understood the EU.and are frustrated by it. On the other hand the rhetoric will stop and reality will kick in. People will realise Brexit isn't doing us any good. I think there's likely to be moves to tie Britain into the EU that don't involve full membership. When Theresa May says "Out means Out", that may not be how it turns out.
You still don't get it. I don't think you ever will. You (and Southam and Topping and the rest of you dimwits) think it's all about trade and money.
It isn't (and nor, by the way, is the EU, a largely political project). Brexit is about democracy and self-government and freedom. It's about us as a nation.
There are a couple of things I like about the EU. Firstly it's a forum where a fractured continent can work through their differences. People who complain about bureaucracy and cumbersome decision making miss the point. Without the EU there would be no decision making at all. Secondly the EU represents liberal values and the world operating to rules. Those are my values.
As a nation we made the sovereign decision to be part of the organisation and then made the sovereign decision not to be. In both cases the principle is sound. While I'm generally supportive of the EU, it's nothing if it doesn't work. What's the point of all that togetherness if it doesn't benefit the lifestyles of its inhabitants? That's why I focus on practical outcomes. If I insist on practical benefits for a cause that I am in principle in favour of, I am going to demand no less for a cause that I find less congenial.
So,coming to the point. Will Brexit improve the lives of ordinary people? Almost certainly not. Will they say, let's forget about the EU and do without them? Maybe.
Pah, The Economist. The single most devalued journal in the world, post Brexit. It is almost unreadable on the subject - except they weep enjoyably ludicrous tears every week. Heh.
Translation - The Economist is right about this, but I do not want to admit it.
Let's face it - Theresa will capitulate to Donald and we'll end up getting the most humiliating and one sided 'trade deal' from the US. Nevertheless, the Leavers will spin it as the glorious proof as to how right they were. They have to.
Pah, The Economist. The single most devalued journal in the world, post Brexit. It is almost unreadable on the subject - except they weep enjoyably ludicrous tears every week. Heh.
Translation - The Economist is right about this, but I do not want to admit it.
I read the article too. There was nothing new in it.
It is an opinion piece they've rolled out on Brexit many times before.
Spanish government officials want to start negotiating a trade deal with the UK to take effect after Brexit, going against the official position of key negotiators in Brussels.
Yep - this merely underlines that all those who think that it will be the Commission taking the lead on the Brexit negotiations are deluded. This will be a deal agreed between national heads of state. They will not feel the need to "punish" the UK in the way foolish Brussels-based bureaucrats might. They will, however, quite rightly point out that if you leave a club you lose the benefits of membership, as well as being relieved of the downsides you feel there might be.
Were we in a safe world that owed us something before?
Of course Britain was in a safer world a year ago when it travelled as part of a convoy of nations tied together by mutual interest and responsibilities. With Europe now so much more divided, its collective ability to guide a highly erratic new US president, always a stiff challenge, is non-existent. Its ability to stop the sprawl of expansionist Russian influence has largely evaporated also. Brexit has played a very large part in this.
Were we in a safe world that owed us something before?
Of course Britain was in a safer world a year ago when it travelled as part of a convoy of nations tied together by mutual interest and responsibilities. With Europe now so much more divided, its collective ability to guide a highly erratic new US president, always a stiff challenge, is non-existent. Its ability to stop the sprawl of expansionist Russian influence has largely evaporated also. Brexit has played a very large part in this.
Britain will continue to play a strong role in regional defence and security cooperation with our European partners.
Pah, The Economist. The single most devalued journal in the world, post Brexit. It is almost unreadable on the subject - except they weep enjoyably ludicrous tears every week. Heh.
Translation - The Economist is right about this, but I do not want to admit it.
I read the article too. There was nothing new in it.
It is an opinion piece they've rolled out on Brexit many times before.
And they continue to be correct.
And pause to contemplate Mrs May’s threat to turn Britain into a tax haven if it gets a poor deal in Brussels. The prime minister is politically almighty. She faces virtually no serious opposition nor credible rivals within her Conservative Party, which is close to record highs in the polls. Her premiership’s raison d’être is to make the social safety net stronger for “just about managing” citizens. Yet if foreign leaders decide not to make concessions, she says she will be forced to rip up that plan and do the very opposite: slash public services and regulation. Some “control”, that.
Spanish government officials want to start negotiating a trade deal with the UK to take effect after Brexit, going against the official position of key negotiators in Brussels.
Yep - this merely underlines that all those who think that it will be the Commission taking the lead on the Brexit negotiations are deluded. This will be a deal agreed between national heads of state. They will not feel the need to "punish" the UK in the way foolish Brussels-based bureaucrats might. They will, however, quite rightly point out that if you leave a club you lose the benefits of membership, as well as being relieved of the downsides you feel there might be.
...e.g. I can't imagine a major UK party leader calling half of Britain a "basket of deplorables". Not even Corbyn is that dim. Is he?
Cameron described UKIP members as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". They turned out to represent 52% of the voters. Insulting voters is not a bright idea.
Were we in a safe world that owed us something before?
Of course Britain was in a safer world a year ago when it travelled as part of a convoy of nations tied together by mutual interest and responsibilities. With Europe now so much more divided, its collective ability to guide a highly erratic new US president, always a stiff challenge, is non-existent. Its ability to stop the sprawl of expansionist Russian influence has largely evaporated also. Brexit has played a very large part in this.
Britain will continue to play a strong role in regional defence and security cooperation with our European partners.
Whether or not true (and that remains to be seen) that does not answer the points that I made. The world is a more dangerous place for Britain, in large part down to Brexit.
I am reminded of the Trump strategy in the US Republican primaries: concentrate on one opponent at a time, bang bang bang, take them out, then move on to the next.
Macron is receiving some fire, but less than Fillon.
I wonder whether Putin's other asset Julian Assange will have anything to say. Perhaps someone will hack into Fillon or Macron's data? What worked once.
How long before Fillon and Macron start saying that dirty rotters, possibly Russian intelligence, are out to get them?
Fillon responded to the allegation that he claimed €500,000 in parliamentary funds to pay his wife when in she did absolutely no work for the money by calling the allegation misogynistic. That won't play well. He looks weak. Perhaps he has got some good answers, but if he can't say "THIS IS UNTRUE" and get it into the headlines, he's finished.
The fight is on. The Twitter account "penelopegate" has been suspended, but the hashtag hasn't.
There is also Macrongate. He is alleged to have spent €120,000 of the Economics Ministry's money in eight months on luxury dinners in support of his bid for the presidency.
The atmosphere in France does NOT look good for those who held senior positions under either Hollande or Sarkozy. Macron was Hollande's "vice president" and Fillon was Sarkozy's prime minister throughout his term of office.
Andreas Whittam Smith is not getting it when he writes in the Independent that the French Trump is Macron. It's interesting that Macron is attracting large crowds at his meetings, and the photo shows him baring his teeth too, but for goodness sake he has positioned himself as a man of the centre and a strong supporter of the EU.
Pah, The Economist. The single most devalued journal in the world, post Brexit. It is almost unreadable on the subject - except they weep enjoyably ludicrous tears every week. Heh.
Translation - The Economist is right about this, but I do not want to admit it.
I read the article too. There was nothing new in it.
It is an opinion piece they've rolled out on Brexit many times before.
And they continue to be correct.
And pause to contemplate Mrs May’s threat to turn Britain into a tax haven if it gets a poor deal in Brussels. The prime minister is politically almighty. She faces virtually no serious opposition nor credible rivals within her Conservative Party, which is close to record highs in the polls. Her premiership’s raison d’être is to make the social safety net stronger for “just about managing” citizens. Yet if foreign leaders decide not to make concessions, she says she will be forced to rip up that plan and do the very opposite: slash public services and regulation. Some “control”, that.
I disagree vehemently. They are not correct. And they are wholly one-sided.
But we've had this debate many, many times (repeatedly) since June, and before, and I have work to do.
Breaking 'far away country of which we know nothing' news.
'Theresa May to gift Donald Trump quaich during US visit
In a media briefing, Downing Street wrongly told journalists that the name of the cup is pronounced with a hard K, when it is actually said with a soft "ch", as in "loch".'
Just the right note of inauthenticity to strike with the Donald.
Were we in a safe world that owed us something before?
Of course Britain was in a safer world a year ago when it travelled as part of a convoy of nations tied together by mutual interest and responsibilities. With Europe now so much more divided, its collective ability to guide a highly erratic new US president, always a stiff challenge, is non-existent. Its ability to stop the sprawl of expansionist Russian influence has largely evaporated also. Brexit has played a very large part in this.
Britain will continue to play a strong role in regional defence and security cooperation with our European partners.
This, not the rather good GDP figure, is probably the most significant economic news today:
British car production reached a 17-year high last year, but the country's vote to leave the European Union contributed to a roughly 33 percent drop in investment in the sector, [the SMMT] said on Thursday.
We're not going back to the old passport, because passports have been standardised through a series of international agreements co-ordinated by the ICAO.
But, but Sovereignty !!!!!!!!
Passport size is standardised. Colour isn't. We probably will go back to British blue. .
Croatia has a dark blue passport despite being an EU member so its not clear that we were forced to go red by the nasty Eurocrats.
Theresa May will demand that Britain is given the international dialling code 2 rather than the present 44. The US uses 1, and if Britain gets 2 that will send a strong message that the US and Britain will, under their wise and committed leaderships, work together to Lead the World Again. Dover will be run down and Liverpool will become a major port again.
it might be handy to compile a list of people driven stark staring cucumber-up-your-bottom crazy, by Brexit.
In descending order of importance:
The Finance Minister of the Netherlands The Times The Economist Anna Soubry Nick Cohen Ian Dunt Jolyon Maugham williamglenn of PB The Labour party ScottP
it might be handy to compile a list of people driven stark staring cucumber-up-your-bottom crazy, by Brexit.
In descending order of importance:
The Finance Minister of the Netherlands The Times The Economist Anna Soubry Nick Cohen Ian Dunt Jolyon Maugham williamglenn of PB The Labour party ScottP
Did I miss anyone?
AC Grayling features quite highly in my Book of The Crazed. That said, I'd not heard much from him before, so he might have always been one of the Lizard People.
Yes, a friend who is a lifelong Conservative (and very active in Leave) is also a prison visitor in two prisons, and she says the conditions are completely indefensible. A number of large prisons are on 23-hour lockdowns (confined to cells) and she thinks that this alone makes riots almost inevitable.
The best thing I did when an MP was helping with a Select Committee report on the effectiveness of prison in different counries. We discovered that the reoffending rate in Britain (defined as the number of ex-prisoners actually caught and convicted again within 2 years) was something like 70%, one of the highest levels in the world, so the system clearly does not work in the rehabilitation sense, which in turn feeds back into crime levels. The rate in e.g. Norway was a bit over 20%.
Comments
I suspect everyday tourists will still have to queue (as we do today) in the usual non-Schengen way.
F1 right now is weaker than it should be, ironically because of Ecclestone's behaviour over the last decade or so.
Blair never got more than 50% of the vote. He only ever got about one third of the electorate voting for him.
Now whilst that doesn't delegitimise his government, it should have impacted HOW he governed.
Because of his massive majority he thought he was popular when he never was. He should have governed more modestly, recognising that he had not convinced 66% of electorate. It was this hubris that undid him.
This applies to all governments before and since. It also applies to the EU vote.
Those that didn't vote for you or didn't vote, count.
It is also an ongoing relationship and her influence on him or otherwise will feature in the narrative and on a more trivial note her appearance in April on the front of American Vogue will be good for her and our fashion industry.
It is time to start batting for the UK and put away all the doom and gloom.
Listening to the clear anti Brexit narrative coming from MP's with the obvious intention of delaying or stopping exit is going to see an increasing anger among voters who now just want to get on with it
See here for details: http://www.icao.int/Security/FAL/TRIP/Pages/default.aspx
Normally the right would be going ape at our unbalanced economy but since Brexit trumps all, there is silence.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28056567/market?marketId=1.129131205
https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/winning-party
There are three domestic political problems with the EU vote: (1) Scotland, (2) Northern Ireland and (3) the Economy.
It's that which must be navigated by May so she can restabilise the body politik around a new consensus.
She will never convince the 25% of die-hard Europhiles.
Now, I must work.
She may never convince the 25%, but she needs to come up with something that they can live with or this will bang on and on and on and ultimately undo her.
But, if you think this bet is an easy win for you, take it.
Why the non-Corbyn Labour party can't develop a spine and jump ship just baffles me.
That is completely mad.
Think of differences between US, Canadian, Swiss, Australian and Japanese passports. Lots of options.
But, frankly, that is not really the issue for me. Trump's election has changed matters and if the facts change, as Keynes once said, why shouldn't opinions change too? That's not being regretful. It's being sensible.
What I really loathe is the way British PMs feel the need to prostrate themselves before US Presidents. Why can't we have some self-respect, for heaven's sake?
The idea that we should suck up to a President who seems to have no moral qualms about torture and thinks that it works and blithely says so is a bit much.
Yes - we have to do realpolitik. Yes - we have build a working relationship with the new regime. But do we have to be so fawning and so delusional: "Together we can lead the world"? For crying out loud, what fantasy world do Downing Street speech writers live in? What planet are our politicians on?
Britain can set an example. One example would be to be realistic about ourselves. Another would be to make it clear that we do not use torture and that if British values and America's conceit of itself as a "shining hill" mean anything, they mean that we don't behave like medieval autocrats.
Again we're not talking about that, because were all talking about bloody Brexit.
The inflection point for global population is approaching (the Chinese think their's will peak in 2030 - their working age population has already peaked).
We've got some tricky issues to navigate over the next few decades, the EU is a relatively minor issue; at worst, a few years of trend growth. How a nation state manages its tax base in a post-work world is going to be rather more challenging.
Fortunately, I shall probably have joined the choir invisible before the shit really hits the fan.
Also we will be borrowing more not just this year but for the next several years. When Brown was in power, GDP growth was normally achieved but always at the expense of higher than expected borrowing.
Finally consumer borrowing is way up and it is that which is fuelling our current GDP growth.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop.
Being anti Corbyn prob helps too I would have thought?
Boris is right, we're not in a new Cold War. In the Cold War the U.S. was on our side, not the Russian's side...
This would be funny, except for the circumstances we find ourselves in.
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/01/all-trump-executive-actions-000288
Who would be happy to arbitrate?
David Herdson?
Deeply, deeply shocking. 37,784 self-harm incidents, 25,049 assault incidents and 119 suicides in *one* year.
I don't often say I'm ashamed of the UK, but our prison system is an absolute disgrace:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38756409
iirc he found many people from the same village back home all sleeping in same underpass. In next underpass would be another village.
These people are totally trapped by the situation.
It is not their fault, but what a mess. How best to get them out of this?
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21715652-leaving-european-union-means-country-has-less-not-more-control-over-its?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/
26:00-27:10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGZ5grXcSFw&index=5&list=PLG4LBtUiXKfxzCMk84vMHPLTZe0aIGG7Q
http://www.businessinsider.co.id/spain-wants-to-start-brexit-trade-talks-2017-1/#e2A44uD8MeKtfXzf.99
Short indeed.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0104/170104.pdf
As a nation we made the sovereign decision to be part of the organisation and then made the sovereign decision not to be. In both cases the principle is sound. While I'm generally supportive of the EU, it's nothing if it doesn't work. What's the point of all that togetherness if it doesn't benefit the lifestyles of its inhabitants? That's why I focus on practical outcomes. If I insist on practical benefits for a cause that I am in principle in favour of, I am going to demand no less for a cause that I find less congenial.
So,coming to the point. Will Brexit improve the lives of ordinary people? Almost certainly not. Will they say, let's forget about the EU and do without them? Maybe.
It is an opinion piece they've rolled out on Brexit many times before.
BrexeuntBrexeamus.And pause to contemplate Mrs May’s threat to turn Britain into a tax haven if it gets a poor deal in Brussels. The prime minister is politically almighty. She faces virtually no serious opposition nor credible rivals within her Conservative Party, which is close to record highs in the polls. Her premiership’s raison d’être is to make the social safety net stronger for “just about managing” citizens. Yet if foreign leaders decide not to make concessions, she says she will be forced to rip up that plan and do the very opposite: slash public services and regulation. Some “control”, that.
Edward Snowden!
I am reminded of the Trump strategy in the US Republican primaries: concentrate on one opponent at a time, bang bang bang, take them out, then move on to the next.
Macron is receiving some fire, but less than Fillon.
I wonder whether Putin's other asset Julian Assange will have anything to say. Perhaps someone will hack into Fillon or Macron's data? What worked once.
How long before Fillon and Macron start saying that dirty rotters, possibly Russian intelligence, are out to get them?
Fillon responded to the allegation that he claimed €500,000 in parliamentary funds to pay his wife when in she did absolutely no work for the money by calling the allegation misogynistic. That won't play well. He looks weak. Perhaps he has got some good answers, but if he can't say "THIS IS UNTRUE" and get it into the headlines, he's finished.
The fight is on. The Twitter account "penelopegate" has been suspended, but the hashtag hasn't.
There is also Macrongate. He is alleged to have spent €120,000 of the Economics Ministry's money in eight months on luxury dinners in support of his bid for the presidency.
The atmosphere in France does NOT look good for those who held senior positions under either Hollande or Sarkozy. Macron was Hollande's "vice president" and Fillon was Sarkozy's prime minister throughout his term of office.
Andreas Whittam Smith is not getting it when he writes in the Independent that the French Trump is Macron. It's interesting that Macron is attracting large crowds at his meetings, and the photo shows him baring his teeth too, but for goodness sake he has positioned himself as a man of the centre and a strong supporter of the EU.
But we've had this debate many, many times (repeatedly) since June, and before, and I have work to do.
So other more constructive priorities beckon.
'Theresa May to gift Donald Trump quaich during US visit
In a media briefing, Downing Street wrongly told journalists that the name of the cup is pronounced with a hard K, when it is actually said with a soft "ch", as in "loch".'
Just the right note of inauthenticity to strike with the Donald.
British car production reached a 17-year high last year, but the country's vote to leave the European Union contributed to a roughly 33 percent drop in investment in the sector, [the SMMT] said on Thursday.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/1/26/uk-car-output-hits-17-year-high-but-investment-tumbles
I'm sure Mr Meeks feels the same
The best thing I did when an MP was helping with a Select Committee report on the effectiveness of prison in different counries. We discovered that the reoffending rate in Britain (defined as the number of ex-prisoners actually caught and convicted again within 2 years) was something like 70%, one of the highest levels in the world, so the system clearly does not work in the rehabilitation sense, which in turn feeds back into crime levels. The rate in e.g. Norway was a bit over 20%.