Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.
On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.
I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.
(Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?
Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium ) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.
I agree with that. I also agree with @Pulpstar that Holland would be amongst the last to leave given the level of integration of its economy. It is, however, an interesting view if he really is up for the ambassadorship. I doubt he would be saying things like that unless it is pretty uncontroversial in the Trump Whitehouse.
Like May, however, I wish the rEU every success going forward. If they have problems my forecast of UK growth this year starting with a 2 is going to be at risk. And that would never do.
The Netherlands (along with Ireland and the Baltics) love the Euro. They are all around 80:20 on "The Euro has been good for [my country here]", so I can't see any of them rushing for the exit. (Small countries have always struggled to issue government debt in their own currencies in the past, so they've always has to deal with the issue of owning money they can't print.)
Could we have a small bet on UK GDP growth 2017. My number was 1-1.2%. Yours is 2.something%. Shall we say I give you £50 if growth exceeds 1.5%, and you send me £50 if it's the other way round
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
That's foreigners, for you, eh? Irrational, liable to throw fits, self-deluding, and easily outmanoeuvrable by the English boarding schools' finest!
If ever there was a time when it would be better for 90% of the country if some other party than the Tories were in office...
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
An example of what I was thinking of: Britain agrees with the US to allow unrestricted and tariff-free imports of chlorine chicken and mutated wheat. So the poulet farmers of Bresse find themselves displaced in the British food market. Right now, the EU can retaliate pretty harshly. If we do the same deal later on, much less so.
We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
That's foreigners, for you, eh? Irrational, liable to throw fits, self-deluding, and easily outmanoeuvrable by the English boarding schools' finest!
Dunno about that, but in a negotiation you have to exploit the weaknesses which the good Lord has been pleased to encumber your adversaries with.
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
An example of what I was thinking of: Britain agrees with the US to allow unrestricted and tariff-free imports of chlorine chicken and mutated wheat. So the poulet farmers of Bresse find themselves displaced in the British food market. Right now, the EU can retaliate pretty harshly. If we do the same deal later on, much less so.
So they need to do a deal before we leave the EU if they want to avoid that. That is the whole point.
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
The Greek economy grew by about a third from 2000-08, and subsequently shrank by a quarter.
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
Well that is just a case of Greece being ill disciplined.
It's the nature of the beast not to blame yourself for reduced circumstances. I've stopped following the Greek ordeal in detail, but I've read nothing good recently.
What!
Greece announced their budget deficit numbers today and they've blown away (in a good way) forecasts. They're running something like a 5% primary surplus.
Today? Forgive me for not having my finger on the Balkan pulse .
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
The Greek economy grew by about a third from 2000-08, and subsequently shrank by a quarter.
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
An example of what I was thinking of: Britain agrees with the US to allow unrestricted and tariff-free imports of chlorine chicken and mutated wheat. So the poulet farmers of Bresse find themselves displaced in the British food market. Right now, the EU can retaliate pretty harshly. If we do the same deal later on, much less so.
So they need to do a deal before we leave the EU if they want to avoid that. That is the whole point.
I suppose. It's double or quits for us, isn't it? Either the EU will give us a plum deal because they are scared or scar us for life because they expect us to to do it anyway.
It comes back to Theresa May's so called "threat" to turn Britain into a low cost, low welfare state. It isn't actually a threat because we will either do it anyway or we're bluffing. I somewhat suspect the EU knows that. To come back to our point - they will either expect that to happen anyway and react accordingly or ignore it and give us the same mediocre deal. There doesn't seem to be a lot of upside in us pushing this.
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
It depends who is throwing the hissy fits. If it's the Commission it doesn't matter as they are irrelevant. I suspect the Germans and the French look at the people that will actually be charged with negotiating deals on our behalf and they think: "Yeah, right; Liam Fox could not negotiate his way out of a plastic bag and Boris would be bored after 10 minutes."
Can i just pass on my commiserations for tse losing to me in this seasons pb fantasy football competition... What's that? It's not over? Bloody corbynism is catching....
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
The Greek economy grew by about a third from 2000-08, and subsequently shrank by a quarter.
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
Are you sure that is correct ?
n * 1.33 * 0.75 = 0.9975n
Greek per capita GDP was $ 12 000 in 2000, peaked at $ 31 000, and now stands at $ 21 000; according to the World Bank.
Just watched PMQs. Excrutiating performance from Corbyn, probably his worst ever. From start to finish it was a complete shambles. No ability whatsoever to think on his feet. And what on earth was he thinking when he made those remarks about the police officer? A terrible misjudgement. The PLP have done their job well by staying quiet about him - they have given him enough rope to hang himself with. Albert Pierrepoint could not have done a better job.
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
The Greek economy grew by about a third from 2000-08, and subsequently shrank by a quarter.
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
Are you sure that is correct ?
n * 1.33 * 0.75 = 0.9975n
Greek per capita GDP was $ 12 000 in 2000, peaked at $ 31 000, and now stands at $ 21 000; according to the World Bank.
What a lot of guff. How can the EU tell if we are having trade talks or just a private chat over tea and Choccie Hob-Nobs that might meander into the area of tariffs on Cheddar?
I agree. Nothing can be finished until we know what the deal is with the EU. But I would have thought we could make a decent start, agree the scope of an agreement etc...
Trump seems to be sticking to his campaign promises, the only modification is to match to reality possible:
'Wall paid for by Mexico' -> Wall built then paid for by Mexico in a roundabout way. 'Ban on all muslims' -> Much tougher visa rules for seven of the most majority muslim countries 'Waterboarding and a whole lot worse' -> Review of blacksites, allowing the CIA to do as it feels fit 'Fan of eminent domain/keystone pipeline' -> Pipeline given go ahead 'NAFTA was a disaster' -> Trump tearing up trade deals by executive order on pretty much his first day.
At the current rate he will have implemented all his policies (apart from jailling Hillary) by Friday, so can take the next 4 years off.
Obamacare is the big one. Will he follow through on repeal?
As an aside, we might be about to see early elections in Italy...
19/11/2013 Single To Win No @ 4/7 |Will Berlusconi be a PDL candidate in t Will Silvio Berlusconi be a PDL candidate at the next general election? £110.72
Does this mean that bet with Paddy will get settled up ?
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Significant, Michel Barnier--the European Commission's chief negotiator--says EU can't stop the UK from talking to the US about a trade deal
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
It depends who is throwing the hissy fits. If it's the Commission it doesn't matter as they are irrelevant. I suspect the Germans and the French look at the people that will actually be charged with negotiating deals on our behalf and they think: "Yeah, right; Liam Fox could not negotiate his way out of a plastic bag and Boris would be bored after 10 minutes."
Trump seems to be sticking to his campaign promises, the only modification is to match to reality possible:
'Wall paid for by Mexico' -> Wall built then paid for by Mexico in a roundabout way. 'Ban on all muslims' -> Much tougher visa rules for seven of the most majority muslim countries 'Waterboarding and a whole lot worse' -> Review of blacksites, allowing the CIA to do as it feels fit 'Fan of eminent domain/keystone pipeline' -> Pipeline given go ahead 'NAFTA was a disaster' -> Trump tearing up trade deals by executive order on pretty much his first day.
At the current rate he will have implemented all his policies (apart from jailling Hillary) by Friday, so can take the next 4 years off.
Obamacare is the big one. Will he follow through on repeal?
There'll be plenty of people who'll follow through if he does...
Just watched PMQs. Excrutiating performance from Corbyn, probably his worst ever. From start to finish it was a complete shambles. No ability whatsoever to think on his feet. And what on earth was he thinking when he made those remarks about the police officer? A terrible misjudgement. The PLP have done their job well by staying quiet about him - they have given him enough rope to hang himself with. Albert Pierrepoint could not have done a better job.
Pierrepoint would have made it a hell of a lot quicker though.
Polls at the last election overstated Labour. This was not unique to Hallam polling. If we strip out that effect, was the Hallam polling really so out of line? Particularly the ones close to the election.
The polling probat saved Clegg as it led to a shit load of Tory tactical voting.
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
The Greek economy grew by about a third from 2000-08, and subsequently shrank by a quarter.
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
Are you sure that is correct ?
n * 1.33 * 0.75 = 0.9975n
Greek per capita GDP was $ 12 000 in 2000, peaked at $ 31 000, and now stands at $ 21 000; according to the World Bank.
Their Economy did a Leicester City...
Googling 'Greek GDP per capita per annum' brings a nice graph which matches those figures:
Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave. Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?
If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
The Greek economy grew by about a third from 2000-08, and subsequently shrank by a quarter.
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
Are you sure that is correct ?
n * 1.33 * 0.75 = 0.9975n
Greek per capita GDP was $ 12 000 in 2000, peaked at $ 31 000, and now stands at $ 21 000; according to the World Bank.
Their Economy did a Leicester City...
4.4% YoY growth, looks good enough to me.
I took my numbers from Wikipedia, so they should be treated with caution.
But, I don't think that Greek GDP per head grew by 158% between 2000-08. That implies an annual rate of about 13%.
On the other hand could the reverse of the question also be put:
Did Labour concentrating on Sheffield Hallam force the Lib Dems to concentrate their firepower on defending their leader's seat - thus diverting the forces that could otherwise have been used to defend more than just eight seats?
The LibDems didn't see it coming. Sure, they though they'd lose a lot of seats. But they thought they'd hold onto Yeovil, Twickenham, and others...
The mystery was how the LibDems held onto Carshalton.
Wow. Since they now seem to be talking about Burns presumably this will be the subject of further discussion and come back another day?
@BBCPhilipSim: Today's budget debate vote doesn't really mean anything - but glaring lack of consensus could be significant. Stage One vote next Thursday.
Wow. Since they now seem to be talking about Burns presumably this will be the subject of further discussion and come back another day?
Yes, I believe there will be some horse trading and they will try again.
And the latest figures from 2015 show that Scotland's trade with rUK is still worth 4x its trade with rEU: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38743532 £50bn to £12.5bn. It is truly astonishing that the Scottish government seems to think that the latter is more important than the former.
And the latest figures from 2015 show that Scotland's trade with rUK is still worth 4x its trade with rEU: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38743532 £50bn to £12.5bn. It is truly astonishing that the Scottish government seems to think that the latter is more important than the former.
Hosie was stuck with that on the daily Politics and abandoned it for an alternative, alternative fact.
The new claim is that the growth in trade is faster with the EU than with the rUK.
That's also bollocks
@afneil: The facts: Scot exports to rUK 2002 to 2014 +67% Scot exports to EU '02-'14 +3.2% Not exactly faster export growth to EU
@afneil: Final facts for now: Since 2012 Scot exports to rUK grown from £45.4bn to £49.8bn +10% Scot exports to EU £12.4bn to 12.3bn -- no growth
Wow. Since they now seem to be talking about Burns presumably this will be the subject of further discussion and come back another day?
@BBCPhilipSim: Today's budget debate vote doesn't really mean anything - but glaring lack of consensus could be significant. Stage One vote next Thursday.
Presumably they will try to buy the Greens with some more green energy subsidies further undermining our competitiveness. I fear the price may have just gone up.
I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
No, it's the other way round. We need to talk up the wonderful opportunities for trade deals elsewhere. They are largely fictional of course, but our EU friends seem to be irrationally worried about them, otherwise they wouldn't be throwing hissy fits about us talking to other countries. So they are a useful lever.
An example of what I was thinking of: Britain agrees with the US to allow unrestricted and tariff-free imports of chlorine chicken and mutated wheat. So the poulet farmers of Bresse find themselves displaced in the British food market. Right now, the EU can retaliate pretty harshly. If we do the same deal later on, much less so.
So they need to do a deal before we leave the EU if they want to avoid that. That is the whole point.
I suppose. It's double or quits for us, isn't it? Either the EU will give us a plum deal because they are scared or scar us for life because they expect us to to do it anyway.
It comes back to Theresa May's so called "threat" to turn Britain into a low cost, low welfare state. It isn't actually a threat because we will either do it anyway or we're bluffing. I somewhat suspect the EU knows that. To come back to our point - they will either expect that to happen anyway and react accordingly or ignore it and give us the same mediocre deal. There doesn't seem to be a lot of upside in us pushing this.
Anyone who thinks the UK economic system and welfare state are likely to continue in their current form for much longer ignore the huge balance of payments deficit AND our inability to fund our current welfare state - let alone one with a lot more old people.
It's staring everyone in the face.. we cannot afford our current spending.. and our standard of living based on imported goods is unsustainable - it depends on asset sales...
And the latest figures from 2015 show that Scotland's trade with rUK is still worth 4x its trade with rEU: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38743532 £50bn to £12.5bn. It is truly astonishing that the Scottish government seems to think that the latter is more important than the former.
Hosie was stuck with that on the daily Politics and abandoned it for an alternative, alternative fact.
The new claim is that the growth in trade is faster with the EU than with the rUK.
That's also bollocks
@afneil: The facts: Scot exports to rUK 2002 to 2014 +67% Scot exports to EU '02-'14 +3.2% Not exactly faster export growth to EU
@afneil: Final facts for now: Since 2012 Scot exports to rUK grown from £45.4bn to £49.8bn +10% Scot exports to EU £12.4bn to 12.3bn -- no growth
How are they able to measure Scottish exports to the rest of the UK?
I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.
.
Always knew you were a TINO!
The thing I love about Hallam is the people who - 80-90 years later - still resent that their areas were stolen from Derbyshire.
Earlier today I caught a tram from Sheffield station/Sheffield Hallam University to finally do the Meadowhall branch a) without it tipping down with rain and b) the return trip in daylight - my previous attempt in late November suffered from rain, causing delays, causing me to have to do the return trip after sunset
And the latest figures from 2015 show that Scotland's trade with rUK is still worth 4x its trade with rEU: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38743532 £50bn to £12.5bn. It is truly astonishing that the Scottish government seems to think that the latter is more important than the former.
Hosie was stuck with that on the daily Politics and abandoned it for an alternative, alternative fact.
The new claim is that the growth in trade is faster with the EU than with the rUK.
That's also bollocks
@afneil: The facts: Scot exports to rUK 2002 to 2014 +67% Scot exports to EU '02-'14 +3.2% Not exactly faster export growth to EU
@afneil: Final facts for now: Since 2012 Scot exports to rUK grown from £45.4bn to £49.8bn +10% Scot exports to EU £12.4bn to 12.3bn -- no growth
Actually very good figures for Scottish exports considering the fall in oil exports over that period. The fall in oil probably accounts for some of the fairly static EU performance (along with screwing several of their economies with the Euro).
How are they able to measure Scottish exports to the rest of the UK?
If you grow it in Fife and sell it in Felixtowe, I guess that counts. So I assume it's economic surveys of everything that gets put on a truck in Scotland and comes off the truck without leaving the UK
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
How can the EU be capable of negotiating in a timely manner with countries around the world? Its structure, processes and skills result in years and years of discussions....
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
The EU has been absolutely terrible at negotiating trade deals as was demonstrated by that fiasco where a small part of Belgium held up the Canada deal. It is in the nature of the beast in that the EU negotiators have to respect the interests of all the members who have significantly different priorities. In comparison the UK is extremely homogeneous and a single party to deal with. It should be much easier to negotiate with us than the EU.
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Those claims of Stoke being the 'Brexit Capital' were rather bizarre.
As i kept pointing out Central is actually the worst Stoke seat for UKIP, their support is concentrated on the periphery with little opportunity to expand into the university/station district or Hanley town centre. Baxter has Stoke North #14 Leave/#19 National, South is #29/#35 by comparison.
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Those claims of Stoke being the 'Brexit Capital' were rather bizarre.
As i kept pointing out Central is actually the worst Stoke seat for UKIP, their support is concentrated on the periphery with little room to expand into the university/station district or Hanley town centre. Baxter has Stoke North #14 Leave/#19 National, South is #29/#35 by comparison.
Your analysis was a credit to the site during the US POTUS especially dissecting the North Carolina numbers. Keep posting
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Well done. Not a share for widows and orphans in my book.
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
We might, for example feel that's it's particularly in our interests to do a deal with say S Africa for reasons of long connection which say Estonia, though blameless as a country is indifferent to as it has other priorities, or where say Italy fears competition from S African Mediterranean fruit which we are eager to buy. Also it's one to one, not 28 plus loads of twiddly bits like Wallonia with obscure Ruritanian axes to grind to one.
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
Completely agree. Mrs May has any number of challenges.
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
If only it had the modern, thrusting efficiency and openness of Westminster.
What is the French for Duck island? Ile des canards?
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
What do you think Enda Kenny's message about Brexit will be?
Interesting question and also interesting what Trump will say to him about the EU
It is beyond the wildest of imaginations that we have arrived at a place where the US and the EU are going head to head against each other.
I know you may not agree but I do believe the prospect of a mutually acceptable deal between the EU and UK has improved following these dramatic events
Notice that Scotland's trade with the UK eclipses their much smaller trade with the EU. It would make sense for Scotland to back the UK EU trade deal and thereby benefit from both markets
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
We need to keep it simple and short. I thought May's recent speech was a good starter for 10 there much more focussed on what we were going to do than what we needed the EU to do. We don't want to give them too many decisions to make.
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Well done. Not a share for widows and orphans in my book.
Those claims of Stoke being the 'Brexit Capital' were rather bizarre.
As i kept pointing out Central is actually the worst Stoke seat for UKIP, their support is concentrated on the periphery with little opportunity to expand into the university/station district or Hanley town centre. Baxter has Stoke North #14 Leave/#19 National, South is #29/#35 by comparison.
Will students be engaged? I believe it is half term. In my day at university there was no such thing for academic terms but in this era of Americanised spring breaks and semesters - will they be around?
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Well done. Not a share for widows and orphans in my book.
anyone braving BT at its new low post-italian job price?
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Well done. Not a share for widows and orphans in my book.
anyone braving BT at its new low post-italian job price?
What is more worrying was that the known problem of the end of the Labour Govt's IT contracts, was not fully factored into the planning and shareholder management by BT.
Those claims of Stoke being the 'Brexit Capital' were rather bizarre.
As i kept pointing out Central is actually the worst Stoke seat for UKIP, their support is concentrated on the periphery with little room to expand into the university/station district or Hanley town centre. Baxter has Stoke North #14 Leave/#19 National, South is #29/#35 by comparison.
Your analysis was a credit to the site during the US POTUS especially dissecting the North Carolina numbers. Keep posting
Aww, thankyou. I was pleased about Florida, especially as some people on here were repeating nonsense from the Dem hacks about the "hispanic surge". Turns out the drop I was seeing in the Dem percentage of the early vote almost exactly matched the final outcome.
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
Actually I think they are uninterested. I guess it comes to the same thing They have a lot of problems that Brexit only adds to and they don't owe us any favours.
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
We need to keep it simple and short. I thought May's recent speech was a good starter for 10 there much more focussed on what we were going to do than what we needed the EU to do. We don't want to give them too many decisions to make.
True. But, we may have in the EU a group more dysfunctional than the Labour party - and even more badly led.
This bigging up of the EU baffles me. This is an organisation that spent three days arguing over a press release about the Hague verdict on the South China Sea. "Less unwieldy than the United Nations" is about as kind as we can be. It's a camel with 27 heads.
Very true. We should expect no deal with the EU at the end of the two year period of Article 50, simply because the EU is so inept.
Actually I think they are uninterested. I guess it comes to the same thing They have a lot of problems that Brexit only adds to and they don't owe us any favours.
Hard to negotiate with someone who doesn't give a shit.
Those claims of Stoke being the 'Brexit Capital' were rather bizarre.
As i kept pointing out Central is actually the worst Stoke seat for UKIP, their support is concentrated on the periphery with little opportunity to expand into the university/station district or Hanley town centre. Baxter has Stoke North #14 Leave/#19 National, South is #29/#35 by comparison.
Yes Stoke central includes the staffs uni campus - and a lot of the students who don't commute from home, live in the constituency in halls or crappy terraced houses.
If the greens stand they'll pick up a few hundred uni votes which would otherwise go to lab or ld.
As you said, the UKIP votes will come from those who live on the periphery. older ex-pottery workers mostly.
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Well done. Not a share for widows and orphans in my book.
anyone braving BT at its new low post-italian job price?
What is more worrying was that the known problem of the end of the Labour Govt's IT contracts, was not fully factored into the planning and shareholder management by BT.
I'm a bit wary of all Telecom companies long term at the moment, Elon Musk's plans for a huge satellite comms network might just blow them all out the water.
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
We might, for example feel that's it's particularly in our interests to do a deal with say S Africa for reasons of long connection which say Estonia, though blameless as a country is indifferent to as it has other priorities, or where say Italy fears competition from S African Mediterranean fruit which we are eager to buy. Also it's one to one, not 28 plus loads of twiddly bits like Wallonia with obscure Ruritanian axes to grind to one.
Does he think we should invade? HK risks underlying some of the cornerstones of its success, such as the rule of law and an independent judiciary but I really don't see what we can possibly do about it.
Does he think we should invade? HK risks underlying some of the cornerstones of its success, such as the rule of law and an independent judiciary but I really don't see what we can possibly do about it.
We could always challenge them to a game of wiff waff.
Those claims of Stoke being the 'Brexit Capital' were rather bizarre.
As i kept pointing out Central is actually the worst Stoke seat for UKIP, their support is concentrated on the periphery with little opportunity to expand into the university/station district or Hanley town centre. Baxter has Stoke North #14 Leave/#19 National, South is #29/#35 by comparison.
Will students be engaged? I believe it is half term. In my day at university there was no such thing for academic terms but in this era of Americanised spring breaks and semesters - will they be around?
Perhaps not, but this is an area the BNP used to be active and the campus is more politicised. This also applies to the student housing up Leek road (Joiners/Eaton Park etc). The point is UKIP are unlikely to gain any traction in these places meaning they'd have to do especially well in their stronger areas.
Does he think we should invade? HK risks underlying some of the cornerstones of its success, such as the rule of law and an independent judiciary but I really don't see what we can possibly do about it.
We could always challenge them to a game of wiff waff.
The top 4 ranked players in the world are all Chinese. Our top ranked player is 40th. I am all for a bit of optimism but....
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
We might, for example feel that's it's particularly in our interests to do a deal with say S Africa for reasons of long connection which say Estonia, though blameless as a country is indifferent to as it has other priorities, or where say Italy fears competition from S African Mediterranean fruit which we are eager to buy. Also it's one to one, not 28 plus loads of twiddly bits like Wallonia with obscure Ruritanian axes to grind to one.
Scanning the first bit it says it covers 90% of trade. Ok fair enough good, but what about a slice of the other 10%? Probably easier to whittle that down one to one than 28 to one. Genuine question does it cover agriculture? Clearly sub tropical and Mediterranean products are not going to clash with hill farmers in Brecon. I would've thought African agricultural produce was in general an area where we could look to for real genuine two way benefit once free of the labyrinth which is the CAP
Does he think we should invade? HK risks underlying some of the cornerstones of its success, such as the rule of law and an independent judiciary but I really don't see what we can possibly do about it.
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
The EU has been absolutely terrible at negotiating trade deals as was demonstrated by that fiasco where a small part of Belgium held up the Canada deal. It is in the nature of the beast in that the EU negotiators have to respect the interests of all the members who have significantly different priorities. In comparison the UK is extremely homogeneous and a single party to deal with. It should be much easier to negotiate with us than the EU.
True up to a point, although it was Canada, not the EU, that was relatively protectionist in the CETA negotiations. If Canada has been more flexible, the deal might have been agreed earlier. Also that diversity makes the EU a much bigger prize for other countries than we are on our own. My guess is that we can get quicker but less comprehensive PTAs. Japan's experience would suggest that.
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
RBS Bailout £46bn. On year's trade from Scotland to England.
Firstly most of the bank was based in England, specifically London. Secondly, although the government's share of RBS is underwater and likely to remain so it is not valueless.
Up just over 3% today, I took a small punt on it at £1.87 anyway.
Well done. Not a share for widows and orphans in my book.
anyone braving BT at its new low post-italian job price?
What is more worrying was that the known problem of the end of the Labour Govt's IT contracts, was not fully factored into the planning and shareholder management by BT.
I'm a bit wary of all Telecom companies long term at the moment, Elon Musk's plans for a huge satellite comms network might just blow them all out the water.
A key telecoms problem was always the last mile problem and these satellites would also be low orbit and not suffer the signal delays that geostationary satellites have. Does this proposed new system overcome attenuation from moisture in the atmosphere?
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
But the Tories have framed Brexit as being about building a 'global Britain'. If it turns out it is the EU which has the leverage and the capacity to negotiate around the world, what is the point? Liam Fox will end up as the Eddie the Eagle of trade talks and Theresa May will need a new narrative...
We might, for example feel that's it's particularly in our interests to do a deal with say S Africa for reasons of long connection which say Estonia, though blameless as a country is indifferent to as it has other priorities, or where say Italy fears competition from S African Mediterranean fruit which we are eager to buy. Also it's one to one, not 28 plus loads of twiddly bits like Wallonia with obscure Ruritanian axes to grind to one.
Scanning the first bit it says it covers 90% of trade. Ok fair enough good, but what about a slice of the other 10%? Probably easier to whittle that down one to one than 28 to one. Genuine question does it cover agriculture? Clearly sub tropical and Mediterranean products are not going to clash with hill farmers in Brecon. I would've thought African agricultural produce was in general an area where we could look to for real genuine two way benefit once free of the labyrinth which is the CAP
The enhanced agreement signed 2 weeks before we voted for Brexit covers everything except arms and munitions and gives asymmetric access to EU markets and so is oriented towards the economic development of Southern Africa.
Interesting front page on the BBC News World website... "Trump orders building of border barrier" in huge letters. Underneath, a picture of the border barrier. Impressively fast, Mr Trump!
Comments
If ever there was a time when it would be better for 90% of the country if some other party than the Tories were in office...
So, Greece is still better off than in 2000 (not by much) but has still had a torrid time.
Meanwhile, “the election of Donald Trump seems likely to put our EU-U.S. negotiations firmly in the freezer at least for a while,” [EU EU Trade Commissioner] Malmstrom said. “Yet, even if the U.S. is our most important partner, and a necessary one, the world is bigger than one country. Trump or no Trump, we have a long list of many others willing to deal with the EU, and about 20 more trade deals already in the pipeline.”
Well, quite. One of them is the world's fifth-largest economy, on your doorstep, and already meets all EU product standards. Trump could, in that sense, be very helpful to us in our negotiations with the EU27. We'll obviously want to play the two off against each other, so expect Mrs May to come back from her meeting with Trump with lots of guff about how we are going to strengthen trade links.
n * 1.33 * 0.75 = 0.9975n
It comes back to Theresa May's so called "threat" to turn Britain into a low cost, low welfare state. It isn't actually a threat because we will either do it anyway or we're bluffing. I somewhat suspect the EU knows that. To come back to our point - they will either expect that to happen anyway and react accordingly or ignore it and give us the same mediocre deal. There doesn't seem to be a lot of upside in us pushing this.
Their Economy did a Leicester City...
No @ 4/7
|Will Berlusconi be a PDL candidate in t
Will Silvio Berlusconi be a PDL candidate at the next general election? £110.72
Does this mean that bet with Paddy will get settled up ?
http://www.oxfordtimes.co.uk/news/opinions/graymatter/8726435.Vicar_s_Diana_Dors_clanger_at_the_church_fete/?ref=ms
Significant, Michel Barnier--the European Commission's chief negotiator--says EU can't stop the UK from talking to the US about a trade deal
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=greek+gdp+per+capita+
but Trading Economics has a different graph with Greek GDP per capita at about 23,000 USD in 2000:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp-per-capita
with both sets of data seemingly coming from the World Bank.
I've no idea which, if any, is right or why there is a difference between the two.
But, I don't think that Greek GDP per head grew by 158% between 2000-08. That implies an annual rate of about 13%.
@BBCPhilipSim: Final vote is tied 63 to 63! Presiding Officer's casting vote goes against the motion - so it is not agreed. Budget stalemate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carshalton_and_Wallington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The Conservatives getting a lower vote share in 2015 than ever before being the reason but why did the Conservatives do so bad there ?
Even their candidate seemed a bit baffled:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11603782/Im-a-Tory-who-lost-to-a-Lib-Dem-MP.-What-sort-of-two-headed-monster-am-I.html
Somewhat ironically Carshalton would have voted Leave.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/127869/collision-penalty-rules-revised-for-2017
The new claim is that the growth in trade is faster with the EU than with the rUK.
That's also bollocks
@afneil: The facts:
Scot exports to rUK 2002 to 2014 +67%
Scot exports to EU '02-'14 +3.2%
Not exactly faster export growth to EU
@afneil: Final facts for now:
Since 2012 Scot exports to rUK grown from £45.4bn to £49.8bn +10%
Scot exports to EU £12.4bn to 12.3bn -- no growth
Labour good value there.
It's staring everyone in the face.. we cannot afford our current spending.. and our standard of living based on imported goods is unsustainable - it depends on asset sales...
Did they do the two stage polls with Clegg being named in the second poll ?
If so did naming Clegg help or hinder the LibDems ?
Looking at the local election results from 2011 to 2014 Hallam should have been thought of as an easy LibDem hold.
I think long shots are a better way to go than favourites at the moment.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
What is the French for Duck island? Ile des canards?
It is beyond the wildest of imaginations that we have arrived at a place where the US and the EU are going head to head against each other.
I know you may not agree but I do believe the prospect of a mutually acceptable deal between the EU and UK has improved following these dramatic events
Notice that Scotland's trade with the UK eclipses their much smaller trade with the EU. It would make sense for Scotland to back the UK EU trade deal and thereby benefit from both markets
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-38745204?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
If the greens stand they'll pick up a few hundred uni votes which would otherwise go to lab or ld.
As you said, the UKIP votes will come from those who live on the periphery. older ex-pottery workers mostly.
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/south-africa/index_en.htm
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2014/october/tradoc_152818.pdf