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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecuti

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how difficult single seat polling is and I was reminded on Twitter this morning of the polling at GE2015 of Sheffield Hallam. The numbers are above. Five consecutive polls had LAB ahead.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    first
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Second like a good Scottish Tory!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Third like a chlorine-bleached chicken burger.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    John_M said:

    Third like a chlorine-bleached chicken burger.

    Sumptuous.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    First! Denied Gold by the doping antics of a team mate...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Smithson, you appear to have missed off the 179 participant Facebook survey here. Shocking omission.

    More seriously, I do think constituency polls are of limited value, at best.

    What was Clegg's majority?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Four consecutive surveys sounds like a bad error, but then you look at the trend....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited January 2017
    It was said there were more Labour activists in Sheffield Hallam than in Morley the final weekend of the campaign.

    I felt there were more Labour activists in Hallam than in the West Yorkshire seats I was campaigning in.

    Never hate your enemies, it clouds your judgement
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, you appear to have missed off the 179 participant Facebook survey here. Shocking omission.

    More seriously, I do think constituency polls are of limited value, at best.

    What was Clegg's majority?

    15k in 2010, 2k in 2015
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,991
    To be fair, only two of the polls were at or near the time when people were voting and the election campaign had been run, and both were just about within MoE.

    I don't think that pouring even more activists into Morley & Outwood in April 2015 would have made much difference. Perhaps pouring resources in over the previous two years would have done but then had they done that, it'd have firstly flagged up that they were seriously worried and secondly, might have cost them other seats elsewhere, such as Halifax.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    The lesson here is simple. Always protect your Balls.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734
    Decapitation strategies don't have a good record of success.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FWIW, opening the UK market to agricultural competition from the US can be painful.

    Last time that happened we had to sell our collection of Turners

    #firstworldproblems
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. F, castration strategies have a 50% success rate, though.

    Mr. Eagles, hefty drop. But winning's winning.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265
    Shy Cleggies....

    I mean, who in their right mind would admit they were even THINKING of voting for him?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    edited January 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Decapitation strategies don't have a good record of success.

    It did work in 2015 though.. the Tory party just removed the body rather than the head!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Decapitation strategies don't have a good record of success.

    It did work in 2015 though.. the Tory party just removed the body rather than the head!
    Nice!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    The Left have always prioritised punishment of those they see as traitors to their cause over electoral success.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory tactical voting was always likely to save Clegg in Hallam.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    MarqueeMark said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Decapitation strategies don't have a good record of success.

    It did work in 2015 though.. the Tory party just removed the body rather than the head!
    Nice!
    Ha!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,969
    Casino_Royale said:

    The Left have always prioritised punishment of those they see as traitors to their cause over electoral success.

    In which case they're very similar to the right.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,991
    Sean_F said:

    Decapitation strategies don't have a good record of success.

    No: when decapitations have happened, it's usually been as a result of a senior MP failing to stand against the tide rather than as an exception.

    Of course, there *was* a massive tide flowing against the Lib Dems so to that extent, Clegg might easily have joined Cable, Davey, Danny Alexander, Laws and co, in the same way that Tory ministers fell in 1997 (would Portillo have been saved had he become PM in 1995?), or Scottish Labour MPs went in 2015, whether new, old, left, right or centre. However, Hallam is still Hallam and Hallam is not very Labour at heart.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    On the other hand could the reverse of the question also be put:

    Did Labour concentrating on Sheffield Hallam force the Lib Dems to concentrate their firepower on defending their leader's seat - thus diverting the forces that could otherwise have been used to defend more than just eight seats?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    May's problems over a US trade deal are only beginning:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2017/01/jeremy-corbyn-has-found-vulnerable-spot-theresa-may-and-trade
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited January 2017
    Philip_Thompson said:

    On the other hand could the reverse of the question also be put:

    Did Labour concentrating on Sheffield Hallam force the Lib Dems to concentrate their firepower on defending their leader's seat - thus diverting the forces that could otherwise have been used to defend more than just eight seats?

    Don't think so. Greg Mullholland held his seat in Leeds.

    Weren't that many Lib Dem seats in South/West Yorkshire.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    williamglenn said:

    May's problems over a US trade deal are only beginning:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2017/01/jeremy-corbyn-has-found-vulnerable-spot-theresa-may-and-trade

    I shall respond by reposting:

    The government asked me if we should remain part of the EU or leave. I chose leave. As a good manager, I have now delegated the execution of this trifling task to Mrs May and her numberless minions. I'm sure there are any number of vexing questions that require answers, but that's why God invented subordinates.

    Wake me when we've left. Anyone for tennis?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.

    Wouldn't that get you expelled from the Conservative Party?

    We have rules about that sort of thing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.

    Wouldn't that get you expelled from the Conservative Party?

    We have rules about that sort of thing.
    That's why I need JohnO's advice and consent
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    williamglenn said:

    May's problems over a US trade deal are only beginning:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2017/01/jeremy-corbyn-has-found-vulnerable-spot-theresa-may-and-trade

    The good news is that I control-F'ed the article and there was no mention of Chlorine.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.

    Wouldn't that get you expelled from the Conservative Party?

    We have rules about that sort of thing.
    That's why I need JohnO's advice and consent
    I miss JohnO.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,490
    I see the phrase "subscat" appeared on a previous thread.

    Is this like "Baker Street" and something I should not ask about?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.

    Wouldn't that get you expelled from the Conservative Party?

    We have rules about that sort of thing.
    Yes - if there is a Blairite standing for Labour, it is in the Labour rulebook that you MUST vote Green instead....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Cyclefree said:

    I see the phrase "subscat" appeared on a previous thread.

    Is this like "Baker Street" and something I should not ask about?


    If you wish to preserve your good opinion of your fellow Man, I urge you to let this one pass Googleless.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    "Tory councillor suspended over lewd comments to hunt protester"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-38744142

    You can probably all guess what I think about this chap.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    Cyclefree said:

    I see the phrase "subscat" appeared on a previous thread.

    Is this like "Baker Street" and something I should not ask about?

    Yes. Even SeanT was disgusted and appalled by it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Philip_Thompson said:

    On the other hand could the reverse of the question also be put:

    Did Labour concentrating on Sheffield Hallam force the Lib Dems to concentrate their firepower on defending their leader's seat - thus diverting the forces that could otherwise have been used to defend more than just eight seats?

    The LibDems didn't see it coming. Sure, they though they'd lose a lot of seats. But they thought they'd hold onto Yeovil, Twickenham, and others...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Meanwhile in Rotherham...

    http://southyorks.police.uk/news-syp/men-convicted-sexually-abusing-rotherham-girls
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2017
    If you have canvass records you can compare past responses with current responses and deduce the change from previously - up to a point anyway.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    SandyRentool said:

    Meanwhile in Rotherham...

    http://southyorks.police.uk/news-syp/men-convicted-sexually-abusing-rotherham-girls

    Tireless work which took 16 years to get to court.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    SandyRentool said:

    Meanwhile in Rotherham...

    http://southyorks.police.uk/news-syp/men-convicted-sexually-abusing-rotherham-girls

    I'm surprised that these cases have dropped from the public eye. It seems there's still a continual parade of Pakistani men raping under age girls.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734
    Cyclefree said:

    I see the phrase "subscat" appeared on a previous thread.

    Is this like "Baker Street" and something I should not ask about?

    It doesn't sound very pleasant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Cassandra, as always, is interesting:

    http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/nothing-cures-populism-like-populism.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Trump seems to be sticking to his campaign promises, the only modification is to match to reality possible:

    'Wall paid for by Mexico' -> Wall built then paid for by Mexico in a roundabout way.
    'Ban on all muslims' -> Much tougher visa rules for seven of the most majority muslim countries
    'Waterboarding and a whole lot worse' -> Review of blacksites, allowing the CIA to do as it feels fit
    'Fan of eminent domain/keystone pipeline' -> Pipeline given go ahead
    'NAFTA was a disaster' -> Trump tearing up trade deals by executive order on pretty much his first day.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    rcs1000 said:

    Cassandra, as always, is interesting:

    http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/nothing-cures-populism-like-populism.html

    but it is as ever part of a cycle

    populists shake the place up, mainsteam stops being complacent and actually does what its supposed to do, all quietens down again.

    the amazing thing is that by and large western countries now do it withoput violence
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Cassandra, as always, is interesting:

    http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/nothing-cures-populism-like-populism.html

    My takeaway was it's just another bien-pensant lament about the ignorance of 'the masses'.

    Drawing parallels with the Khmer Rouge, Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini is simply ludicrous. The UK is not sliding towards "an illiberal abyss".

    The rarest commodity in the modern world is a sense of proportion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Surely the phenomenal and unmatchable ground game Labour had that we heard so much about in the run up to the election (if not quite so much afterwards) would have had resources to spare so that this diversion was of no moment?

    More significantly, the accuracy of the individual constituency polling done by Ashcroft and others was so bad that it made the national polling look good. A complete waste of resources whose sole upside was the plentiful supply of thread headers these polls provided to PB. I agree with Mike this is a mistake that is unlikely to be repeated.
  • FormerToryOrangeFormerToryOrange Posts: 112
    Polls at the last election overstated Labour. This was not unique to Hallam polling. If we strip out that effect, was the Hallam polling really so out of line? Particularly the ones close to the election.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    williamglenn said:

    May's problems over a US trade deal are only beginning:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2017/01/jeremy-corbyn-has-found-vulnerable-spot-theresa-may-and-trade

    Not really. There won't be a trade deal with the US, for the reasons succinctly explained in that article.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Not really. There won't be a trade deal with the US, for the reasons succinctly explained in that article.

    You think the absence of a US trade deal after all the promises that it can be done and dusted in less than 6 months aren't a political problem for the government? As you would say, it's a view...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    DavidL said:

    Surely the phenomenal and unmatchable ground game Labour had that we heard so much about in the run up to the election (if not quite so much afterwards) would have had resources to spare so that this diversion was of no moment?

    More significantly, the accuracy of the individual constituency polling done by Ashcroft and others was so bad that it made the national polling look good. A complete waste of resources whose sole upside was the plentiful supply of thread headers these polls provided to PB. I agree with Mike this is a mistake that is unlikely to be repeated.

    The Ashcroft polling was spot on in Scotland, and pointed you in the right direction if you paid attention to the first question only in alot of others.

    The Comres regional polling in the Southwest was astoundingly good.

    One area where it seemed to fail was the "swing constituencies" - Broxtowe springs to mind. I note national polling and state polling in the US was OK - except the key swing states there - Wisconsin.

    The value of polling is definitely there - but you need to analyse it rather more carefully than say a Daily Express journalist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Afternoon all.

    Shame there’s no video footage saved for posterity of Ed Balls losing his seat…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    This is the man who was also 'tipped to be the ambassador to the UK', until he wasn't. Almost as if he's the one doing the tipping...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Not really. There won't be a trade deal with the US, for the reasons succinctly explained in that article.

    You think the absence of a US trade deal after all the promises that it can be done and dusted in less than 6 months aren't a political problem for the government? As you would say, it's a view...
    Oh, they can drag it out. No-one apart from Liam Fox and a couple of other extreme Atlanticists are fussed either way, and in any case with a protectionist US president, there's very little scope for a deal.

    Of course, the pretence that there will be some enormously significant trade deal with the US is very handy when chatting to our EU friends about what they might offer. So I'm not at all surprised that the government is talking up the possibility.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Good job nurses weren't involved in a foul up like this.

    http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2017-01-25/two-northumbria-university-students-almost-died-after-taking-equivalent-of-300-coffees/

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    FPT:
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If I were Chief Whip, there are ~25 Tory MPs I'd keep an eye on:

    Heidi Allen, Alastair Burt, Nick Boles, Robert Buckland, Steve Brine, Nic Soames, Ken Clarke (write-off), Alberto Costa, Neil Carmichael, Nick Herbert, Ben Howlett, Dominic Grieve, Simon Kirby, Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Caroline Spelman, George Osborne, Ben Wallace, Jane Ellison, Bob Neill, Clare Perry, Johnny Mercer, Tania Mathias and Sarah Wollaston.

    I would add David Mundell, Damian Green and David Lidington, but they're in Government.

    There is talk of between 20-40 in a Tory pro-EU bloc, but I expect it's pretty much those 25 (tops) plus a few more who are sympathetic and wanted to Remain but now who won't go against the party whip, or Government line.

    Damien Green has been all over the news making clear he will do nothing to hinder Brexit and agrees with Mays position.
    "Yes, I was a Remainer. I'm also a democrat."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of course, the pretence that there will be some enormously significant trade deal with the US is very handy when chatting to our EU friends about what they might offer. So I'm not at all surprised that the government is talking up the possibility.

    The UK trade delegation may have been born yesterday but the European Commission's certainly wasn't.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Shame there’s no video footage saved for posterity of Ed Balls losing his seat…

    There is some footage of a very gracious concession speech.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuVG64W58f4
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Meanwhile in Rotherham...

    http://southyorks.police.uk/news-syp/men-convicted-sexually-abusing-rotherham-girls

    Tireless work which took 16 years to get to court.
    The fact the article gives their ages now and the victims ages then makes it look worse, although I doubt these chaps stopped in 2001.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of course, the pretence that there will be some enormously significant trade deal with the US is very handy when chatting to our EU friends about what they might offer. So I'm not at all surprised that the government is talking up the possibility.

    The UK trade delegation may have been born yesterday but the European Commission's certainly wasn't.
    True, but some EU politicians (especially French ones) have an irrational and deep-seated fear that the UK and the US will conspire to do the dirty on Europe. It would seem churlish not to humour them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the phenomenal and unmatchable ground game Labour had that we heard so much about in the run up to the election (if not quite so much afterwards) would have had resources to spare so that this diversion was of no moment?

    More significantly, the accuracy of the individual constituency polling done by Ashcroft and others was so bad that it made the national polling look good. A complete waste of resources whose sole upside was the plentiful supply of thread headers these polls provided to PB. I agree with Mike this is a mistake that is unlikely to be repeated.

    The Ashcroft polling was spot on in Scotland, and pointed you in the right direction if you paid attention to the first question only in alot of others.

    The Comres regional polling in the Southwest was astoundingly good.

    One area where it seemed to fail was the "swing constituencies" - Broxtowe springs to mind. I note national polling and state polling in the US was OK - except the key swing states there - Wisconsin.

    The value of polling is definitely there - but you need to analyse it rather more carefully than say a Daily Express journalist.
    I don't have the numbers to hand but I don't recall the polling in Scotland being spot on. It certainly got the result right, unlike in Hallam, but given the size of the swings away from Labour it would have been pretty astonishing if it hadn't. Many of those ex-Labour seats have 10,000+ majorities now. Didn't Ashcroft only poll 8 Scottish seats?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    some EU politicians (especially French ones) have an irrational and deep-seated fear that the UK and the US will conspire to do the dirty on Europe. It would seem churlish not to humour them.

    I thought being churlish to EU politicians (especially French ones) was the whole point?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    SeanT said:

    I don't know where to start. There is no possible legal way Scotland can "Remain" in the EU as the UK Leaves. How can that not be bleedin' obvious? Is it a spoof? Is she joking? Do some Scots actually believe this is possible? Without, you know, a spot of EU Treaty Change, the kind that takes 10 years?

    It seems to be sinking in that an independence vote prior to our exit would scupper Brexit so you're trying to rationalise why it must be impossible.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    I don't know where to start. There is no possible legal way Scotland can "Remain" in the EU as the UK Leaves. How can that not be bleedin' obvious? Is it a spoof? Is she joking? Do some Scots actually believe this is possible? Without, you know, a spot of EU Treaty Change, the kind that takes 10 years?

    It seems to be sinking in that an independence vote prior to our exit would scupper Brexit so you're trying to rationalise why it must be impossible.
    Why would it scupper Brexit? It would make the Leave winning margin a lot bigger
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/823905476890853376
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    SeanT said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    williamglenn said:

    May's problems over a US trade deal are only beginning:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2017/01/jeremy-corbyn-has-found-vulnerable-spot-theresa-may-and-trade

    Not really. There won't be a trade deal with the US, for the reasons succinctly explained in that article.
    I never realised the New Statesman had sunk to such levels.

    This reads like it was written by a special needs 12 year old.

    Rather depressing. I am mildly ashamed of my profession.
    She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.

    So not exactly familiar with the Chancelleries of Europe then.....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,416
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Not really. There won't be a trade deal with the US, for the reasons succinctly explained in that article.

    You think the absence of a US trade deal after all the promises that it can be done and dusted in less than 6 months aren't a political problem for the government? As you would say, it's a view...
    Oh, they can drag it out. No-one apart from Liam Fox and a couple of other extreme Atlanticists are fussed either way, and in any case with a protectionist US president, there's very little scope for a deal.

    Of course, the pretence that there will be some enormously significant trade deal with the US is very handy when chatting to our EU friends about what they might offer. So I'm not at all surprised that the government is talking up the possibility.
    The important thing about the US trade deal is that it gives political cover to the "Britain open to the World" idea. ie We don't need the EU because there's a much bigger world to reach out to. Indeed, the EU holds us back.

    If Brexit actually reduces our links with the rest of the world AS WELL as disconnecting us from Europe, it sinks that idea somewhat.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump seems to be sticking to his campaign promises, the only modification is to match to reality possible:

    'Wall paid for by Mexico' -> Wall built then paid for by Mexico in a roundabout way.
    'Ban on all muslims' -> Much tougher visa rules for seven of the most majority muslim countries
    'Waterboarding and a whole lot worse' -> Review of blacksites, allowing the CIA to do as it feels fit
    'Fan of eminent domain/keystone pipeline' -> Pipeline given go ahead
    'NAFTA was a disaster' -> Trump tearing up trade deals by executive order on pretty much his first day.

    At the current rate he will have implemented all his policies (apart from jailling Hillary) by Friday, so can take the next 4 years off.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Handy...

    https://twitter.com/sloatsj/status/824289327526150145
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/823905476890853376

    It's an old drum, but Labour need to pick a candidate that will claim "Brexit is going to save the NHS".
    Boris to cross the floor :> ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SeanT said:

    I never realised the New Statesman had sunk to such levels.

    This reads like it was written by a special needs 12 year old.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/how-nod-germany-could-trigger-second-scottish-independence-referendum

    I don't know where to start. There is no possible legal way Scotland can "Remain" in the EU as the UK Leaves. How can that not be bleedin' obvious? Is it a spoof? Is she joking? Do some Scots actually believe this is possible? Without, you know, a spot of EU Treaty Change, the kind that takes 10 years?

    Rather depressing. I am mildly ashamed of my profession.

    The New Statesman is a strange beast. It has some very good articles, but some real stinkers. I agree that this one tends towards the latter end of the spectrum.

    I don't believe any Scottish politicians seriously believe the nonsense about Scotland 'remaining' in the EU, although I suppose some of the more naive SNP supporters might. They just see Brexit as a wedge.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    From the Guardian:

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.

    Wouldn't that get you expelled from the Conservative Party?

    We have rules about that sort of thing.
    That's why I need JohnO's advice and consent
    It is only an issue if you declare it in public!
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump seems to be sticking to his campaign promises, the only modification is to match to reality possible:

    (...)

    'Waterboarding and a whole lot worse' -> Review of blacksites, allowing the CIA to do as it feels fit

    A quick look through news reports on this order, which Trump hasn't yet signed, shows that several mention the Red Cross - but that not a single one of the yellow-bellied arse-sniffers who call themselves editors has seen fit to get a quote from the Red Cross itself.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
    Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    How can the EU tell if we are having trade talks or just a private chat over tea and Choccie Hob-Nobs that might meander into the area of tariffs on Cheddar?

    Because the Brexiteers and headbangers will make their way to every media outlet to proclaim loudly that we are having trade talks...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,416
    rcs1000 said:


    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.

    I think Trump is mainly beating up Germany, particularly over its balance of trade, Germany is in a weaker negotiating position alone than as part of the EU. So Trump trashes the EU and wants to work at a nation state level. Germany will want to keep to the EU as a block. All sensible European countries will be cleaving to the EU in the current environment to avoid being picked off.

    Having said that, I expect German car manufacturers, who make up a substantial part of that trade surplus, will see the writing on the wall and will move production to the US. After all they do just that in China

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    Dromedary said:

    From the Guardian:

    image

    What a lot of guff. How can the EU tell if we are having trade talks or just a private chat over tea and Choccie Hob-Nobs that might meander into the area of tariffs on Cheddar?
    If it's helpful to the negotiation, I'm sure we could happily agree not to discuss post-Brexit relations with non-EU countries in return for the EU27 agreeing not to discuss the post-Brexit future of the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
    Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
    Well that is just a case of Greece being ill disciplined.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.
    I agree with that. I also agree with @Pulpstar that Holland would be amongst the last to leave given the level of integration of its economy. It is, however, an interesting view if he really is up for the ambassadorship. I doubt he would be saying things like that unless it is pretty uncontroversial in the Trump Whitehouse.

    Like May, however, I wish the rEU every success going forward. If they have problems my forecast of UK growth this year starting with a 2 is going to be at risk. And that would never do.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
    Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
    Well that is just a case of Greece being ill disciplined.
    It's the nature of the beast not to blame yourself for reduced circumstances. I've stopped following the Greek ordeal in detail, but I've read nothing good recently.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
    Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
    It's worse than that, he's spent £2500 on the assumption that the good times could only get better.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    .

    Always knew you were a TINO! :lol:
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.

    I think Trump is mainly beating up Germany, particularly over its balance of trade, Germany is in a weaker negotiating position alone than as part of the EU. So Trump trashes the EU and wants to work at a nation state level. Germany will want to keep to the EU as a block. All sensible European countries will be cleaving to the EU in the current environment to avoid being picked off.

    Having said that, I expect German car manufacturers, who make up a substantial part of that trade surplus, will see the writing on the wall and will move production to the US. After all they do just that in China

    "That Mercedes-Benz in New York, for example, may have been made in Tuscaloosa, Ala., depending on the model. BMW has a plant in South Carolina that exports 70 percent of the vehicles made there, it says. And Germans might not buy many Chevrolets, which are no longer sold in Germany, but they buy plenty of Opels, which, like Chevy, is owned by General Motors."
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/16/business/trump-germany-bmw-mercedes.html?_r=0
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think I might vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam (or the successor seat) in 2020.

    Cannot risk Corbyn becoming PM by electing a Labour MP.

    I'll need permission from JohnO before I do.

    Wouldn't that get you expelled from the Conservative Party?

    We have rules about that sort of thing.
    That's why I need JohnO's advice and consent
    I miss JohnO.
    That's very kind but I'm still very much around and reading all the threads but Surrey related stuff (er, that 15% proposed council tax increase!!) has been taking too much of my time on twitter and Facebook. Plus I've become too slothful.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.
    I agree with that. I also agree with @Pulpstar that Holland would be amongst the last to leave given the level of integration of its economy. It is, however, an interesting view if he really is up for the ambassadorship. I doubt he would be saying things like that unless it is pretty uncontroversial in the Trump Whitehouse.

    Like May, however, I wish the rEU every success going forward. If they have problems my forecast of UK growth this year starting with a 2 is going to be at risk. And that would never do.
    The Netherlands (along with Ireland and the Baltics) love the Euro. They are all around 80:20 on "The Euro has been good for [my country here]", so I can't see any of them rushing for the exit. (Small countries have always struggled to issue government debt in their own currencies in the past, so they've always has to deal with the issue of owning money they can't print.)

    Could we have a small bet on UK GDP growth 2017. My number was 1-1.2%. Yours is 2.something%. Shall we say I give you £50 if growth exceeds 1.5%, and you send me £50 if it's the other way round
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Scott_P said:

    Handy...

    https://twitter.com/sloatsj/status/824289327526150145

    Now who could they be thinking of?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,416
    SeanT said:

    Dromedary said:

    From the Guardian:

    image

    What a lot of guff. How can the EU tell if we are having trade talks or just a private chat over tea and Choccie Hob-Nobs that might meander into the area of tariffs on Cheddar?
    I agree with you. But it's probably in our interest to be circumpsect. The UK will never need the goodwill from the EU more than at the point it leaves. Later on, as we get our trading relationship sorted out with the EU, our WTO schedule agreed, and possibly some third party arrangements in place we will be less beholden to them. Right now they hold most of the leverage.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,991
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.
    'Could' is a wonderful word. But people have been predicting the collapse of the Euro for a long time and it hasn't happened yet (and nor will it while there's political will for it to continue).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This story looks like it might have something for everyone...

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/824295806157066241
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
    Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
    Well that is just a case of Greece being ill disciplined.
    It's the nature of the beast not to blame yourself for reduced circumstances. I've stopped following the Greek ordeal in detail, but I've read nothing good recently.
    What!

    Greece announced their budget deficit numbers today and they've blown away (in a good way) forecasts. They're running something like a 5% primary surplus.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    logical_song said:

    Scott_P said:

    Handy...

    https://twitter.com/sloatsj/status/824289327526150145

    Now who could they be thinking of?
    Well I can think of at least three obvious possibilities.

    If it is Trump, well fair enough, it was a stupid law anyway. But is he really worse or any more fair game than Erdogan?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Deeper integration for the EU is the recipe for the Euro succeeding. Countries such as the Netherlands are so completely tied up in the single market and other European stuff (Far more than us) that it would be practically impossible for them to leave.
    Of course that necessarily means more loss of sovereignty to a US of Europe. But in purely economic terms it is probably the only 'net positive' path for Europe to head down now.
    That reminds me of the old "if it isn't hurting it isn't working" routine. Several countries, notably Greece, Italy and Portugal, have been severely damaged by Euro membership. If some of them flake off then the attraction of the Euro for the remainder will be much diminished, not least because it would probably appreciate sharply damaging their competitiveness. As I say, I don't think it is likely because it would just be too humiliating for the political class in Europe and too disruptive of their economies but it is not impossible.
    Has Greece actually been that damaged by Euro membership ?

    If you give a man £2000 one year and take £1000 off him the next he might claim he's been robbed. But he'll still be £1000 better off than the counterfactual. Isn't this the (somewhat oversimplified) case with Greece ?
    Assuming he hasn't spent £1500 in the intervening period, in which case he's pretty much fuxxored for the forseeable.
    It's worse than that, he's spent £2500 on the assumption that the good times could only get better.
    And he spent £2,500 because Goldman told him he could reclassify part of the debt so he only had to tell people he owed £500...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38749884

    Not sure I agree with him on the Euro but a very positive attitude towards the UK.

    Of course it could fail in the next 18 months.

    On the other hand, the Eurozone is starting 2017 with the best PMIs in the post crisis era, and unemployment is coming down everywhere.

    I'd need quite good odds to bet on it collapsing in the next 18 months.

    (Also, what does he mean by collapsing? If Greece, Italy and Portugal left the Eurozone, but everyone else stayed in, does that mean it's collapsed? Or does it have to be a catastrophic collapse where everyone is effectively evicted at the same time?

    Personally, I suspect that - if it is to fall apart - we'd be more likely to see a drip... drip... where one country goes, and then another, then another, over perhaps a five year period. I think it's also quite possible that a "Northern Euro" like (Byzantium :)) continue far longer than the Euro in the South.
    I agree with that. I also agree with @Pulpstar that Holland would be amongst the last to leave given the level of integration of its economy. It is, however, an interesting view if he really is up for the ambassadorship. I doubt he would be saying things like that unless it is pretty uncontroversial in the Trump Whitehouse.

    Like May, however, I wish the rEU every success going forward. If they have problems my forecast of UK growth this year starting with a 2 is going to be at risk. And that would never do.
    The Netherlands (along with Ireland and the Baltics) love the Euro. They are all around 80:20 on "The Euro has been good for [my country here]", so I can't see any of them rushing for the exit. (Small countries have always struggled to issue government debt in their own currencies in the past, so they've always has to deal with the issue of owning money they can't print.)

    Could we have a small bet on UK GDP growth 2017. My number was 1-1.2%. Yours is 2.something%. Shall we say I give you £50 if growth exceeds 1.5%, and you send me £50 if it's the other way round
    That sounds fair. Deal.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    SeanT said:

    Dromedary said:

    From the Guardian:

    image

    What a lot of guff. How can the EU tell if we are having trade talks or just a private chat over tea and Choccie Hob-Nobs that might meander into the area of tariffs on Cheddar?
    They can't. The boundary between "proper" negotiations and "not proper" ones is grey and wide if it even exists. So many press articles today seem to have been written by fools. But the photograph is funny!

    EU27 can use what they know and negotiate accordingly, without having to get legal. I wonder to what extent either Britgov or EU27 know what they are doing. Why not hold a trade conference with Britain, EU27, and various other countries? Are both perhaps deliberately portraying themselves as incompetents bobbing about on a sea of fortune - the "Dunno" guys - in what could well be a momentous year? It can't be long before "solutions" appear.
This discussion has been closed.