Interesting front page on the BBC News World website... "Trump orders building of border barrier" in huge letters. Underneath, a picture of the border barrier. Impressively fast, Mr Trump!
He's also followed through on defunding sanctuary cities. Local authorities will need to claw back their revenue somehow...
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
Lol no chance he will build one along the Canadian border, there's a reason he went after Mexico so heavily in his campaign - Canada does not have a full scale Drug war going on.
Interesting front page on the BBC News World website... "Trump orders building of border barrier" in huge letters. Underneath, a picture of the border barrier. Impressively fast, Mr Trump!
Obama or maybe Bush started the wall for him - as I repeatedly pointed out during the campaign the Dems didn't really have a leg to stand on with regards to his wall promise.
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
What do you think Enda Kenny's message about Brexit will be?
I don't know, what do you think?
I do know, that Kenny will be gone before the next election and earlier if his ministers have their way. I know that FG is drifting down in the polls and FF is trending up. I know that each will remain in hock to some special independents.
I know that Dublin has both an office space and material housing problem and and that Ireland has an effective 53% income tax rate.
I wrote that without consulting third party sources. What do you know?
Interesting front page on the BBC News World website... "Trump orders building of border barrier" in huge letters. Underneath, a picture of the border barrier. Impressively fast, Mr Trump!
Obama or maybe Bush started the wall for him - as I repeatedly pointed out during the campaign the Dems didn't really have a leg to stand on with regards to his wall promise.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
Lol no chance he will build one along the Canadian border, there's a reason he went after Mexico so heavily in his campaign - Canada does not have a full scale Drug war going on.
I would think it is more likely that the Canucks will build a wall to keep the Trumpites out.
Interesting front page on the BBC News World website... "Trump orders building of border barrier" in huge letters. Underneath, a picture of the border barrier. Impressively fast, Mr Trump!
Obama or maybe Bush started the wall for him - as I repeatedly pointed out during the campaign the Dems didn't really have a leg to stand on with regards to his wall promise.
Yeah, the hyperbole on this one is off the scale!
In 2010, due to insecurity and instability at the southern border of the U.S., president Barack Obama signed an appropriation bill, which gave the CBP (Customs and Border Protection), specifically the Border Patrol, 600 million dollars to implement and improve security.
Does he think we should invade? HK risks underlying some of the cornerstones of its success, such as the rule of law and an independent judiciary but I really don't see what we can possibly do about it.
You can't get a real estate mortgage in HK which has a maturity after 2047. Which is an interesting comment on perceived political risk.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
I think it's always sensible to reconsider your position when events change. Plenty of time yet for brexit to be a disaster or a triumph... But I agree that Trump makes brexit a riskier prospect.
@Cyclefree - Trump's election and protectionist policies certainly complicate matters, but it's not entirely one-sided. Yes, it means that we are in greater need of doing trade deals, but so are other countries, and of course that goes for the EU27.
What is certainly the case is that Trump is not going to do us any favours. He likes Brexit because it undermines the strength of the EU (which he rightly sees as an obstacle to US hegemony), not for any other reason.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
You're a great poster on this site and you don't deserve to be told 'I told you so'. Your arguments for Brexit were always eloquent. Although I wasn't too worried about Brexit in July, August etc. (as a remainer) I now share a lot of your concerns. I think this si the worst possible time for us to be leaving the EU, and I think that many who voted Brexit didn't want us to leave to EU to be America's lapdog.
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
He is a benefit if he cements the special relationship but he is not my favour of the month. Re Canada his spokesman did mention it as I have a special interest in Canada due to my eldest son being married to a Canadianand they are living in Vancouver
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
Lol no chance he will build one along the Canadian border, there's a reason he went after Mexico so heavily in his campaign - Canada does not have a full scale Drug war going on.
Interesting front page on the BBC News World website... "Trump orders building of border barrier" in huge letters. Underneath, a picture of the border barrier. Impressively fast, Mr Trump!
Obama or maybe Bush started the wall for him - as I repeatedly pointed out during the campaign the Dems didn't really have a leg to stand on with regards to his wall promise.
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
Lol no chance he will build one along the Canadian border, there's a reason he went after Mexico so heavily in his campaign - Canada does not have a full scale Drug war going on.
His spokesman did mention it
Interesting - I can't see it flying though. Perhaps its a good old 'threat that he'll never actually use' against Trudeau in some negotiation...
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
Lol no chance he will build one along the Canadian border, there's a reason he went after Mexico so heavily in his campaign - Canada does not have a full scale Drug war going on.
His spokesman did mention it
Interesting - I can't see it flying though. Perhaps its a good old 'threat that he'll never actually use' against Trudeau in some negotiation...
I think it is in the overall attitude to close and seal all borders as they mentioned much tighter port controls. I personally cannot see a Canadian wall but who knows with Trump
Listening to Trump and the wall he is at a stroke taking the US into isolation. God forbid but he is talking of a Canadian wall as well. This is UKIP on steriods and must seriously damage the US's standing internationally.
Into this envirionment steps Theresa May and she will need lots of diplomacy to distance herself from this policy and his mysogynist views but at the same time talk seriously about trade, NATO and close co-operation
Apparently he is meeting Enda Kenny on St Patrick's Day (17th March)
Did he really say a wall along Canadian border? I suppose it would show it wasn't personal to the Mexicans!
Have to say I thought you were one of those who thought Trump was good for UK... Was I mistaken or are events changing your mind ?
Lol no chance he will build one along the Canadian border, there's a reason he went after Mexico so heavily in his campaign - Canada does not have a full scale Drug war going on.
His spokesman did mention it
Interesting - I can't see it flying though. Perhaps its a good old 'threat that he'll never actually use' against Trudeau in some negotiation...
I think it is in the overall attitude to close and seal all borders as they mentioned much tighter port controls. I personally cannot see a Canadian wall but who knows with Trump
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
I'm quite gloomy too about my childrens' prospects. I worry that Europe - including Britain does not seem willing to uphold the values which have made it what it is (freedom of speech, for instance). Identity politics is a cancer. There is a nastiness around which is troubling (death threats against political opponents? FFS!)
I do have faith in the US constitution but while that may limit the harm that Trump can do internally it does not stop the US taking a more inward turn and leaving the rest of the world to its own devices. I loathe the way some on the Right think that being the US's lapdog is the way Britain should go. It is so cringing. If we don't like being bossed around by Brussels why would we want to be bossed around by Washington?
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
You're a great poster on this site and you don't deserve to be told 'I told you so'. Your arguments for Brexit were always eloquent. Although I wasn't too worried about Brexit in July, August etc. (as a remainer) I now share a lot of your concerns. I think this si the worst possible time for us to be leaving the EU, and I think that many who voted Brexit didn't want us to leave to EU to be America's lapdog.
A friend's son voted for "tribe-x" on the grounds that he didn't want to be Germany's lapdog.
I don't think many Americans would say that they have ever made everything OK for this country, but there are the little matters of WW 1 & 2, and the Marshall Plan.
On a different tack, driven by my attention deficit syndrome I was wondering whether I could copyright the phrases "Trump Slump", "Trump Clump", "Trump Dump", "Trumpe l'oeil". There's material for a cartoon here. Maybe.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
You're a great poster on this site and you don't deserve to be told 'I told you so'. Your arguments for Brexit were always eloquent. Although I wasn't too worried about Brexit in July, August etc. (as a remainer) I now share a lot of your concerns. I think this si the worst possible time for us to be leaving the EU, and I think that many who voted Brexit didn't want us to leave to EU to be America's lapdog.
A friend's son voted for "tribe-x" on the grounds that he didn't want to be Germany's lapdog.
I don't think many Americans would say that they have ever made everything OK for this country, but there are the little matters of WW 1 & 2, and the Marshall Plan.
On a different tack, driven by my attention deficit syndrome I was wondering whether I could copyright the phrases "Trump Slump", "Trump Clump", "Trump Dump", "Trumpe l'oeil". There's material for a cartoon here. Maybe.
A friend's son voted for "tribe-x" on the grounds that he didn't want to be Germany's lapdog.
I don't think many Americans would say that they have ever made everything OK for this country, but there are the little matters of WW 1 & 2, and the Marshall Plan.
On a different tack, driven by my attention deficit syndrome I was wondering whether I could copyright the phrases "Trump Slump", "Trump Clump", "Trump Dump", "Trumpe l'oeil". There's material for a cartoon here. Maybe.
I'm not one of those on the Left who hates America. I appreciate that there has been a 'special relationship' (of sorts) in the past like you say with WW1 and 2, as well as the Marshall Plan. Without American money, the NHS probably wouldn't have happened in 1948. But the direction Trump is taking the US is seriously worrying. I wonder just how much the GOP are going to go along with his protectionist agenda.
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
I'm quite gloomy too about my childrens' prospects. I worry that Europe - including Britain does not seem willing to uphold the values which have made it what it is (freedom of speech, for instance). Identity politics is a cancer. There is a nastiness around which is troubling (death threats against political opponents? FFS!)
I do have faith in the US constitution but while that may limit the harm that Trump can do internally it does not stop the US taking a more inward turn and leaving the rest of the world to its own devices. I loathe the way some on the Right think that being the US's lapdog is the way Britain should go. It is so cringing. If we don't like being bossed around by Brussels why would we want to be bossed around by Washington?
Maybe things will work out. I hope so.
You strike me as a good person. I'm sure you've passed on good values to your children. Ultimately, that's what really matters, or at least, that what seems important to me. I'm very proud of my daughter. I believe in her, and I hope I've given her the love and support she needs to help on her way - through Brexit, Trump, or whatever other nonsense the future throws at us.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
Unfortunately I think we have to go through with it. I certainly didn't predict Trump , but Brexit generally is unfolding as I expected despite Trump. We have choices, even after ruling out the best choice of staying in the EU. None of those choices are good, but we are where we are and should make the best of the options we have. I suspect the Brexit referendum won't be the last word, and that perhaps that gives some hope for the future.
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
I'm quite gloomy too about my childrens' prospects. I worry that Europe - including Britain does not seem willing to uphold the values which have made it what it is (freedom of speech, for instance). Identity politics is a cancer. There is a nastiness around which is troubling (death threats against political opponents? FFS!)
I do have faith in the US constitution but while that may limit the harm that Trump can do internally it does not stop the US taking a more inward turn and leaving the rest of the world to its own devices. I loathe the way some on the Right think that being the US's lapdog is the way Britain should go. It is so cringing. If we don't like being bossed around by Brussels why would we want to be bossed around by Washington?
Maybe things will work out. I hope so.
I think we have to keep optimistic. The visit by Theresa May to Trump will be a test of her ability to act as a friend and also tell him where he is out of order.
In time she may be able to influence the hard stance of US to the EU and certainly the EU should see her as a friend, not the enemy.
It may prove impossible but we have to support TM in her vital new role as a World leader
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
I'm more confident that Brexit was the right answer than ever before. Nothing Remainers or the EU have done since June 23rd has had any effect other than increasing my confidence that we made the right decision. It is now abundantly clear that we were already too tightly enmeshed in an emerging nation state that we had no desire to be a part of. The sooner we are out the better, and I'll now accept anything from soft scoop Brexit to a diamond hard Brexit. I feel quite relaxed about the whole issue now.
A friend's son voted for "tribe-x" on the grounds that he didn't want to be Germany's lapdog.
I don't think many Americans would say that they have ever made everything OK for this country, but there are the little matters of WW 1 & 2, and the Marshall Plan.
On a different tack, driven by my attention deficit syndrome I was wondering whether I could copyright the phrases "Trump Slump", "Trump Clump", "Trump Dump", "Trumpe l'oeil". There's material for a cartoon here. Maybe.
I'm not one of those on the Left who hates America. I appreciate that there has been a 'special relationship' (of sorts) in the past like you say with WW1 and 2, as well as the Marshall Plan. Without American money, the NHS probably wouldn't have happened in 1948. But the direction Trump is taking the US is seriously worrying. I wonder just how much the GOP are going to go along with his protectionist agenda.
If it weren't so damn important it would be good popcorn watching. Actually, the US system, together with elements of his own party, might well tie him up in knots to some degree. But he can do harm in any case.
Fillon is drifting. Le Canard Enchaîné has questioned payments of €500,000 from parliamentary funds to his Welsh wife, saying that they were unable to find anyone who had seen a single sign of her having done any work for that money.
He says the claim is "misogynistic". Personally I can't work out what his wife's possession of a vagina has do with the allegation.
He would be in a much stronger position if the headline read
"Fillon denies allegation, claims wife did 10,000 hours of work".
But she is on record as saying she doesn't have a role, and that accompanying her husband on political outings is her "limit".
Sell.
Mid-prices: Fillon 2.02, Macron 3.875, Le Pen 4.7.
If Fillon pulls out, the chances of a Bayrou candidature increase.
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Also why the hell does he want a wall with Canada? WTH? Is immigration from Canada really an issue for the US?
Canada has several well organised cheese smuggling rings. This has in the past penetrated some of their police forces. No doubt he sees this as a menace
Fillon is drifting. Le Canard Enchaîné has questioned payments of €500,000 from parliamentary funds to his Welsh wife, saying that they were unable to find anyone who had seen a single sign of her having done any work for that money.
He says the claim is "misogynistic". Personally I can't work out what his wife's possession of a vagina has do with the allegation.
He would be in a much stronger position if the headline read
"Fillon denies allegation, claims wife did 10,000 hours of work".
But she is on record as saying she doesn't have a role, and that accompanying her husband on political outings is her "limit".
Sell.
Mid-prices: Fillon 2.02, Macron 3.875, Le Pen 4.7.
If Fillon pulls out, the chances of a Bayrou candidature increase.
Surely if Fillon pulls out, the chances of Juppe replacing him is far more significant than whether Bayrou runs or not.
I think we have to keep optimistic. The visit by Theresa May to Trump will be a test of her ability to act as a friend and also tell him where he is out of order.
In time she may be able to influence the hard stance of US to the EU and certainly the EU should see her as a friend, not the enemy.
It may prove impossible but we have to support TM in her vital new role as a World leader
Trump doesn't accept cold, hard facts. There is no way on Earth he will listen to Tezza. About anything.
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
I'm more confident that Brexit was the right answer than ever before. Nothing Remainers or the EU have done since June 23rd has had any effect other than increasing my confidence that we made the right decision. It is now abundantly clear that we were already too tightly enmeshed in an emerging nation state that we had no desire to be a part of. The sooner we are out the better, and I'll now accept anything from soft scoop Brexit to a diamond hard Brexit. I feel quite relaxed about the whole issue now.
For clarity, we're leaving the EU and I would be heartily pissed off were we to resile. The difficulties people keep throwing up serve to reinforce my conviction that it's the right thing to do - in another ten or fifteen years it would have been impossible.
I simply think we're going to have a much tougher time than I'd hoped.
I think we have to keep optimistic. The visit by Theresa May to Trump will be a test of her ability to act as a friend and also tell him where he is out of order.
In time she may be able to influence the hard stance of US to the EU and certainly the EU should see her as a friend, not the enemy.
It may prove impossible but we have to support TM in her vital new role as a World leader
Trump doesn't accept cold, hard facts. There is no way on Earth he will listen to Tezza. About anything.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
Good on you for being honest. It's a perfectly reasonable question to ask. For what it's worth, I couldn't fault anyone for having last minute jitters prior to us pressing the A50 red button. It's only natural: we're about to take a huge, bold - and almost certainly irreversible - new step.
My view? In all honesty, I'm even more comfortable with Brexit now than I was before the vote. I'd priced into my vote an immediate drop in inward investment, a Brexit induced recession, for at least two years, and other countries holding back on even declaring an interest in trade deals before we were firmly Out. I also was concerned the UK might become something of a pariah state: caught in a pincer movement between a Hillary led US, and an repentant EU, determined to ensure we were marginalised so we might reconsider.
I calculated all of that risk still made it worth it. I was worried for the first two weeks, when the UK seemed to enter a sort of political turmoil. But, thankfully, neither of these things have come to pass. Many will say "yet" but I think the world has already changed.
Trump is a blessing and a curse from our point of view - or an opportunity and a threat, if you prefer:
A blessing because his election has opened up strategic options for us both with the EU and the US. We can potentially (not definitely) start working on a trade deal from the goodwill he feels both to the UK - and to Brexit, which he credits with helping secure his victory - whilst his election also increases our distinctiveness and value to the EU as a regional partner in defence and security, and also in acting as a bridge and mediator with Trump.
A curse because Trump is a narcissistic demagogue who only thinks of himself first and, deep down, probably has little affection for his own people, let alone anyone else. His election - to my eternal frustration - has deeply the soured the milk over Brexit because the two have been conflated and it's cast our vote in exactly the same light. And I really don't like that.
But, he won't be around forever. Personally, I think gone in 4 years. But Brexit is for the long-term.
On FTAs with other countries? Well, we don't have to sign any, and we should always be prepared to walk away - and it's worth noting, we don't have any with India, China or Australia/NZ or the US at the moment, and do pretty well as it is - but whilst our raw economic firepower may be less, it is still substantial at around 20-25% of the EU's, and what we lose in 'weight' we gain in flexibility and responsiveness.
So I think Brexit will be a success. We might well end up forging a new role as the West's mediator, and the leader in global open trade and promotion of liberal values.
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
Which way did you vote in the ref ?
Cyclefree has said on here several times she will not reveal her vote.
Certainty is for the young, the foolish and the naive. I've seldom made a decision and not second-guessed myself. In terms of EUref, I thought long and hard about it (as any perusal of PB's threads will show).
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens .
I'm quite gloomy too about my childrens' prospects. I worry that Europe - including Britain does not seem willing to uphold the values which have made it what it is (freedom of speech, for instance). Identity politics is a cancer. There is a nastiness around which is troubling (death threats against political opponents? FFS!)
I do have faith in the US constitution but while that may limit the harm that Trump can do internally it does not stop the US taking a more inward turn and leaving the rest of the world to its own devices. I loathe the way some on the Right think that being the US's lapdog is the way Britain should go. It is so cringing. If we don't like being bossed around by Brussels why would we want to be bossed around by Washington?
Maybe things will work out. I hope so.
I don't want the UK to be bossed around by anybody.
I posted my reservations and redlines around a US-UK trade deal on here only last week, and said we should be prepared to say "no" if needs be, or just do a light touch deal in areas we are comfortable with alone.
Politically, however, it helps us to string it along for the next 2 years and talk about how fantastically we're getting on to enhance our negotiating position with the EU.
The biggest risk to that is Trump and his Twitter account.
There was a lot of talk on here when he got elected, about how we shouldn't worry, Trump wouldn't get anything done. He doesnt seem to have got that memo.
I don't know how much polling can be blamed - Labour in GM focussed on Manchester Withington (which they took off the LDs with a 15,000 majority) at the expense of Lab-Con seats in Bury North and Bolton West, which both went Tory.
I suspect there was just a strong drive among Labour activists to go to Lab-LD seats and a much weaker one to go to Lab-Con seats.
Comments
I do know, that Kenny will be gone before the next election and earlier if his ministers have their way. I know that FG is drifting down in the polls and FF is trending up. I know that each will remain in hock to some special independents.
I know that Dublin has both an office space and material housing problem and and that Ireland has an effective 53% income tax rate.
I wrote that without consulting third party sources. What do you know?
Trump's election and what he appears to be doing (I know, I know, early days and all that) make me wonder whether Brexit is sensible in today's circumstances.
A protectionist world with a US bent on retreating into isolation and away from global trade is one which the UK is going to find much harder to navigate. There's a strong element of self-delusion about thinking that the US will make everything OK for us. Why should they? When have they ever?
I know all the arguments for why the EU and Britain are not a good fit. I know all the arguments for why the EU is not working. I know all the arguments for why nations should be able to have control over their borders. I loathe the idea of not doing what the people have voted for.
The government's Brexit strategy appears to be to embrace a global role at the precise moment that the people have voted against one very obvious aspect of globalization and the world's biggest nation/economy is turning against it. So what does that global role really mean? And even if we sign any number of FTA with lots of countries our bargaining power is pretty weak. All those countries will know that we really need those FTAs. Our strategy is, well, an incoherent collection of slogans.
But Trump's election and what it may portend for us, for Europe generally and for the world really worries me.
I really don't know what we should or even could do about this. But anyway I have put it out there.
And now I shall go home and await all the brickbats of "You're frit", "I told you so" etc etc.
We have moved beyond these issues being ones of individual citizens, they are now criticisms of entire nations.
Plenty of time yet for brexit to be a disaster or a triumph... But I agree that Trump makes brexit a riskier prospect.
What is certainly the case is that Trump is not going to do us any favours. He likes Brexit because it undermines the strength of the EU (which he rightly sees as an obstacle to US hegemony), not for any other reason.
I wasn't really weighing things in the balance - I dismissed both campaigns as appalling. I'd seen the direction of travel (Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon), and disagreed with it. My concerns were always around two issues. Firstly, the state of the UK economy. Secondly, our ability to execute Brexit, given the capabilities of our political classes & the Civil Service (I've first hand experience of both - the quality is extremely variable).
At present, I'm quite gloomy, as I've written elsewhere on here.
Ultimately, it depends on your baseline. I tend to see things across a fifty year expanse. The world has become vastly wealthier, more peaceful, kinder and more advanced. That's no guarantee that things will continue in that vein; we may have reached an inflection point.
However, on that basis, Trump is a (hopefully) temporary aberration. We have yet to see what he achieves in practice. I have faith in the US constitution and its checks and balances.
TLDR; it's a sign of maturity to doubt, to question. But life goes on, no matter what happens
And if people think that those on the Left are going OTT on Trump....well listen to how many Trump supporters (with the exception of Glenn Beck) used to characterise Obama: https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/1365007986925585/
I do have faith in the US constitution but while that may limit the harm that Trump can do internally it does not stop the US taking a more inward turn and leaving the rest of the world to its own devices. I loathe the way some on the Right think that being the US's lapdog is the way Britain should go. It is so cringing. If we don't like being bossed around by Brussels why would we want to be bossed around by Washington?
Maybe things will work out. I hope so.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19751695
I don't think many Americans would say that they have ever made everything OK for this country, but there are the little matters of WW 1 & 2, and the Marshall Plan.
On a different tack, driven by my attention deficit syndrome I was wondering whether I could copyright the phrases "Trump Slump", "Trump Clump", "Trump Dump", "Trumpe l'oeil". There's material for a cartoon here. Maybe.
PS the nat. grid is redlining and windpower is important
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
In time she may be able to influence the hard stance of US to the EU and certainly the EU should see her as a friend, not the enemy.
It may prove impossible but we have to support TM in her vital new role as a World leader
He says the claim is "misogynistic". Personally I can't work out what his wife's possession of a vagina has do with the allegation.
He would be in a much stronger position if the headline read
"Fillon denies allegation, claims wife did 10,000 hours of work".
But she is on record as saying she doesn't have a role, and that accompanying her husband on political outings is her "limit".
Sell.
Mid-prices: Fillon 2.02, Macron 3.875, Le Pen 4.7.
If Fillon pulls out, the chances of a Bayrou candidature increase.
At what point does recognising the inertia of large trading blocs become a case for smaller arrangements with improved responsiveness and flexibility?
He could have a fence built across Lake Superior to match the one I saw in a lake along the Finnish-Russian border.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/exclusive-tories-choose-trudy-harrison-and-jack-brereton-as-by-election-candidates-party-sources-say_uk_5888f9c9e4b08868bdb06699?jb7td43xsn9ltyb9
Haven't yet seen anything else.
Tweet from Tory Councillor - but still to find another link or two.
https://twitter.com/WhitehavenNews/status/824354824309370880
But smuggling cheese out of the USA? I mean, the US is a great country in many ways, but the quality of its cheese is not one of them.
I simply think we're going to have a much tougher time than I'd hoped.
Good evening, everyone.
My view? In all honesty, I'm even more comfortable with Brexit now than I was before the vote. I'd priced into my vote an immediate drop in inward investment, a Brexit induced recession, for at least two years, and other countries holding back on even declaring an interest in trade deals before we were firmly Out. I also was concerned the UK might become something of a pariah state: caught in a pincer movement between a Hillary led US, and an repentant EU, determined to ensure we were marginalised so we might reconsider.
I calculated all of that risk still made it worth it. I was worried for the first two weeks, when the UK seemed to enter a sort of political turmoil. But, thankfully, neither of these things have come to pass. Many will say "yet" but I think the world has already changed.
Trump is a blessing and a curse from our point of view - or an opportunity and a threat, if you prefer:
A blessing because his election has opened up strategic options for us both with the EU and the US. We can potentially (not definitely) start working on a trade deal from the goodwill he feels both to the UK - and to Brexit, which he credits with helping secure his victory - whilst his election also increases our distinctiveness and value to the EU as a regional partner in defence and security, and also in acting as a bridge and mediator with Trump.
A curse because Trump is a narcissistic demagogue who only thinks of himself first and, deep down, probably has little affection for his own people, let alone anyone else. His election - to my eternal frustration - has deeply the soured the milk over Brexit because the two have been conflated and it's cast our vote in exactly the same light. And I really don't like that.
But, he won't be around forever. Personally, I think gone in 4 years. But Brexit is for the long-term.
On FTAs with other countries? Well, we don't have to sign any, and we should always be prepared to walk away - and it's worth noting, we don't have any with India, China or Australia/NZ or the US at the moment, and do pretty well as it is - but whilst our raw economic firepower may be less, it is still substantial at around 20-25% of the EU's, and what we lose in 'weight' we gain in flexibility and responsiveness.
So I think Brexit will be a success. We might well end up forging a new role as the West's mediator, and the leader in global open trade and promotion of liberal values.
Which is her right.
I posted my reservations and redlines around a US-UK trade deal on here only last week, and said we should be prepared to say "no" if needs be, or just do a light touch deal in areas we are comfortable with alone.
Politically, however, it helps us to string it along for the next 2 years and talk about how fantastically we're getting on to enhance our negotiating position with the EU.
The biggest risk to that is Trump and his Twitter account.
He doesnt seem to have got that memo.
I suspect there was just a strong drive among Labour activists to go to Lab-LD seats and a much weaker one to go to Lab-Con seats.