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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LEAVE campaign’s message on the NHS is still resonating st

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  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You really don't pay any attention to actual news at all do you.

    You do know we haven't actually left yet...
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    The Tories will promise anything you like..... but they never keep their promises once they have got themselves elected.

    I think the country is starting to see through the Tory guff. The Trump campaign was an eye-opener for many.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114

    You think the industrial estate with the businesses and jobs etc there that the Rue leads to is nowhere?

    It's a thought. Who needs industry or jobs? Not people like @logical_song ...
    The road with the industry and jobs is named after Robert Schuman and the circular detour is named after Brexit. Perhaps the FN are trolling us?
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    Scott_P said:

    You really don't pay any attention to actual news at all do you.

    You do know we haven't actually left yet...
    You do know your side was claiming all manner of disaster just because of the vote, not just the actual Brexit?

    Or are you continuing to pursue your own post-truth agenda?
  • Options
    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    The Tories will promise anything you like..... but they never keep their promises once they have got themselves elected.

    I think you will find that was the Lib Dems as well.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Or are you continuing to pursue your own post-truth agenda?

    You are the one claiming a Brexit dividend; before we Brexit...

    If we ever leave, we can have a discussion about how well it is going. Your's is not so much post-truth, as pre-truth
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114
    Scott_P said:

    You really don't pay any attention to actual news at all do you.

    You do know we haven't actually left yet...
    It would be instructive to poll how many people think we have.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/817358268712493056

    Nigel Farage is the Brian Clough of politics.

    Discuss.

    Brian Clough won two European cups with an unfashionable side.Maybe Farage will win two European referendums when we vote on Brexit deal.
    Did Farage win the Referendum? Wasn't it mainly the Boris/Gove show?
    Boris and maybe Gove did not really want to win .They did not want to blow the doors off ,just have a close defeat so they could get a better deal and improve their personal position.Farage really wanted to win and without him there would have been no referendum. Boris was and still will be hoping for another referendum on the deal. Farage from the leader of UKIP and MEP has had the greatest influence on British politics for a generation.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited January 2017

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    It will only satisfy those who admire creative accounting.

    And those who don't understand creative accounting. Remember Osborne halving a £1.7bn payment to the EU a couple of years ago? He didn't, we paid the lot, half by handing over £850m in cash and half by giving up £850m of rebate, which is exactly equivalent to paying a further £850m. And he pretty much got away with it, because people find it too difficult to understand that equivalence. The objection to the £350m claim is the same - that it stated a gross figure for a net figure. If anyone is to be held to account over the claim (and I don't see who will be - to fight "the Leave campaign" is to engage in shadow boxing), fudging their way out of it will be a piece of cake. Like everything else, arithmetic is in a post-truth phase.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Scott_P said:

    the second point is whether or not any extra money will be available from leaving the EU. Obviously most people, quite reasonably, believe that it will be

    Only if you believe in the Brexit dividend bullshit.

    If we take a financial hit from leaving there will not be any extra money for anything, especially the NHS
    You spent all last year telling us when we take a financial hit, not if.

    You also said it would start immediately and require an Emergency Budget. Excuse me if I treat your knowledge on this area with as much lack of confidence as I do on your geography of the Birmingham area....
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:

    You really don't pay any attention to actual news at all do you.

    You do know we haven't actually left yet...
    You do know your side was claiming all manner of disaster just because of the vote, not just the actual Brexit?

    Or are you continuing to pursue your own post-truth agenda?
    Scott and the facts parted company a long time ago.

    One thing he learnt from tim, was lie and repeat and repeat and repeat........
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    The Tories will promise anything you like..... but they never keep their promises once they have got themselves elected.

    I think the country is starting to see through the Tory guff. The Trump campaign was an eye-opener for many.
    You ok hun???
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    This is a back of and envelope calculation, so if I'm out then please correct me,

    The NHS budget is £120.661 billion in 2016/17

    According to this website: http://www.nhsconfed.org/resources/key-statistics-on-the-

    divided by 52 weeks: 2,320 million.

    if increased by 4.9% in 17/18 that would be: £2,433 mil

    and again in 18/19: £2,552 mil

    and in 19/20 (the first full year after Brexit!) £2,678 mil

    2,678 - 2320 = 358 mil

    Considering some of that 4.9% increase will be accounted for by, inflation and rise in population anyway. I am surprised that May/Hamond don't do it anyway, and reap a massive popularity bones

    While I'm not normally a fan a populism in any form, it would allow them to implement some of the good but unpopular, reforms the economy would benefit form!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/817358268712493056

    Nigel Farage is the Brian Clough of politics.

    Discuss.

    Brian Clough won two European cups with an unfashionable side.Maybe Farage will win two European referendums when we vote on Brexit deal.
    Did Farage win the Referendum? Wasn't it mainly the Boris/Gove show?
    Boris and maybe Gove did not really want to win .They did not want to blow the doors off ,just have a close defeat so they could get a better deal and improve their personal position.Farage really wanted to win and without him there would have been no referendum. Boris was and still will be hoping for another referendum on the deal. Farage from the leader of UKIP and MEP has had the greatest influence on British politics for a generation.
    I don't believe Farage wanted to win. His primary goal is to destroy the EU and a successful Brexit takes away his platform. That's why he's been all at sea since the vote.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You also said it would start immediately and require an Emergency Budget.

    We haven't left yet. Which bit of immediately comes BEFORE something happens?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,963
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    It will only satisfy those who admire creative accounting.

    And those who don't understand creative accounting. Remember Osborne halving a £1.7bn payment to the EU a couple of years ago? He didn't, we paid the lot, half by handing over £850m in cash and half by giving up £850m of rebate, which is exactly equivalent to paying a further £850m. And he pretty much got away with it, because people find it too difficult to understand that equivalence. The objection to the £350m claim is the same - that it stated a gross figure for a net figure. If anyone is to be held to account over the claim (and I don't see who will be - to fight "the Leave campaign" is to engage in shadow boxing), fudging their way out of it will be a piece of cake. Like everything else, arithmetic is in a post-truth phase.
    On the 1.7bn "'We are not going suddenly to get out our cheque book and write a cheque for two billion euros. It is not going to happen"

    On triggering A50 "the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away"

    On immigration "We would like to see net immigration in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds of thousands. I don’t think that’s unrealistic"

  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    You also said it would start immediately and require an Emergency Budget.

    We haven't left yet. Which bit of immediately comes BEFORE something happens?
    We have voted. We were told immediately after a vote not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724

    Scott_P said:

    the second point is whether or not any extra money will be available from leaving the EU. Obviously most people, quite reasonably, believe that it will be

    Only if you believe in the Brexit dividend bullshit.

    If we take a financial hit from leaving there will not be any extra money for anything, especially the NHS
    You spent all last year telling us when we take a financial hit, not if.

    You also said it would start immediately and require an Emergency Budget. Excuse me if I treat your knowledge on this area with as much lack of confidence as I do on your geography of the Birmingham area....
    I think that we can all agree that the fall in the pound was caused by the Leave result, or at least was engineered by the BoE to take the sting out of the Leave result reaction. It worked but is storing up pain in the form of inflation, after a time lag.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Must say I am loving the new Brexit reality.

    We voted.

    That's it.

    Brexit is complete, and all is well with the World. Business is thriving, everyone is happy.

    Makes you wonder what they were so bitter about before...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Did anybody else watch the 9pm BBC4 programme last night? Think it was called Sword, Musket and Gun, or similar. All about weapons, the first part focusing on medieval ones.

    I found it very interesting. Use of ancient manuals reminded me a bit of HEMA. Also good to learn the origin of the terms freelance (a non-affiliated knight in 12th century France/Angevin Empire open to being hired) and swashbuckling (from when chaps fought with a sword and buckler [small shield]).
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/817358268712493056

    Nigel Farage is the Brian Clough of politics.

    Discuss.

    Brian Clough won two European cups with an unfashionable side.Maybe Farage will win two European referendums when we vote on Brexit deal.
    Did Farage win the Referendum? Wasn't it mainly the Boris/Gove show?
    Boris and maybe Gove did not really want to win .They did not want to blow the doors off ,just have a close defeat so they could get a better deal and improve their personal position.Farage really wanted to win and without him there would have been no referendum. Boris was and still will be hoping for another referendum on the deal. Farage from the leader of UKIP and MEP has had the greatest influence on British politics for a generation.
    I don't believe Farage wanted to win. His primary goal is to destroy the EU and a successful Brexit takes away his platform. That's why he's been all at sea since the vote.
    Farage knows that once big business whispers in mrs doubtfire ear as always the conservative leaders play to that tune not the voters in Sunderland, The betrayal rhetoric will kick in and UKIP will be the beneficiaries.
  • Options
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    It will only satisfy those who admire creative accounting.

    And those who don't understand creative accounting. Remember Osborne halving a £1.7bn payment to the EU a couple of years ago? He didn't, we paid the lot, half by handing over £850m in cash and half by giving up £850m of rebate, which is exactly equivalent to paying a further £850m. And he pretty much got away with it, because people find it too difficult to understand that equivalence. The objection to the £350m claim is the same - that it stated a gross figure for a net figure. If anyone is to be held to account over the claim (and I don't see who will be - to fight "the Leave campaign" is to engage in shadow boxing), fudging their way out of it will be a piece of cake. Like everything else, arithmetic is in a post-truth phase.
    The problem with the £350 million claim is not that it quoted gross instead of net. It quoted monies we did not and do not pay. Monies we are not liable for. The rebate is not a rebate at all. To call it such implies we pay it and then get it back. It is not even officially called a rebate but an abatement since the monies never leave the UK.

    If you want to use gross figures then the UK budget contribution is around £15 billion gross (£288 million a week) or £10.2 billion net (around £196 million a week).
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened. We were not told after Article 50 is triggered (which is an arcane technicality devoid of reality to 99.99% of people and business) nor after we actually leave (which was never going to happen immediately). We were told after we voted there would be an immediate hit and it hasn't happened.
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    the second point is whether or not any extra money will be available from leaving the EU. Obviously most people, quite reasonably, believe that it will be

    Only if you believe in the Brexit dividend bullshit.

    If we take a financial hit from leaving there will not be any extra money for anything, especially the NHS
    You spent all last year telling us when we take a financial hit, not if.

    You also said it would start immediately and require an Emergency Budget. Excuse me if I treat your knowledge on this area with as much lack of confidence as I do on your geography of the Birmingham area....
    I think that we can all agree that the fall in the pound was caused by the Leave result, or at least was engineered by the BoE to take the sting out of the Leave result reaction. It worked but is storing up pain in the form of inflation, after a time lag.
    Explain again why inflation is still below target please. When do we expect the Bank of England to finally hit its inflation target?
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    Or are you continuing to pursue your own post-truth agenda?

    You are the one claiming a Brexit dividend; before we Brexit...

    If we ever leave, we can have a discussion about how well it is going. Your's is not so much post-truth, as pre-truth
    I have claimed nothing more than the fact that your disasters have not happened. That is the fact that you are trying so hard to squirm out of.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened.

    Well, there has been an immediate financial hit.

    But the other consequences are predicated on us triggering Article 50 which we haven't done, and leaving, which we haven't done.

    If you want to argue Brexit is done, go ahead. If not, don't pretend not to understand the original forecasts.
  • Options

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    It will only satisfy those who admire creative accounting.

    And those who don't understand creative accounting. Remember Osborne halving a £1.7bn payment to the EU a couple of years ago? He didn't, we paid the lot, half by handing over £850m in cash and half by giving up £850m of rebate, which is exactly equivalent to paying a further £850m. And he pretty much got away with it, because people find it too difficult to understand that equivalence. The objection to the £350m claim is the same - that it stated a gross figure for a net figure. If anyone is to be held to account over the claim (and I don't see who will be - to fight "the Leave campaign" is to engage in shadow boxing), fudging their way out of it will be a piece of cake. Like everything else, arithmetic is in a post-truth phase.
    The problem with the £350 million claim is not that it quoted gross instead of net. It quoted monies we did not and do not pay. Monies we are not liable for. The rebate is not a rebate at all. To call it such implies we pay it and then get it back. It is not even officially called a rebate but an abatement since the monies never leave the UK.

    If you want to use gross figures then the UK budget contribution is around £15 billion gross (£288 million a week) or £10.2 billion net (around £196 million a week).
    Though considering every time there's a budget round (especially if there's a Labour government) the EU tries to slice and dice our rebate then it is relevant to discussion as a long term figure.

    Had Blair not given away much of our rebate with nothing in return how much would our net figures be now?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I have claimed nothing more than the fact that your disasters have not happened.

    None of them were predicted to come before an event that hasn't happened...

    When, and if, we actually Brexit, we can have a discussion about how successful it is. Or not.

    Until then, your pre-truth is simply garbage.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened.

    Well, there has been an immediate financial hit.

    But the other consequences are predicated on us triggering Article 50 which we haven't done, and leaving, which we haven't done.

    If you want to argue Brexit is done, go ahead. If not, don't pretend not to understand the original forecasts.
    Our GDP target rate was 2.0% in 2016 if we voted Remain, to be lowered with a likely immediate recession if we voted Leave.

    We actually grew 2.1% which was MORE than forecast for Remain and considerably more than for any Leave scenario.

    So what hit have we taken?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    The Tories will promise anything you like..... but they never keep their promises once they have got themselves elected.

    I think the country is starting to see through the Tory guff. The Trump campaign was an eye-opener for many.
    Hahahaha - TUITION FEES!
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    Scott_P said:

    I have claimed nothing more than the fact that your disasters have not happened.

    None of them were predicted to come before an event that hasn't happened...

    When, and if, we actually Brexit, we can have a discussion about how successful it is. Or not.

    Until then, your pre-truth is simply garbage.
    Wrong. They were supposed to come immediately after the vote. Actual Brexit was always supposed to be two years later.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So what hit have we taken?

    Have you looked at Sterling recently?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Obama scrapes a new low by blamiing Cameron on Syria as if the UK's 4 planes are going to make any differnce

    what a waste of space the creeping coward is

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/john-kerry-blames-british-parliament-derailing-us-plans-strike/
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508
    edited January 2017

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    It will only satisfy those who admire creative accounting.

    And those who don't understand creative accounting. Remember Osborne halving a £1.7bn payment to the EU a couple of years ago? He didn't, we paid the lot, half by handing over £850m in cash and half by giving up £850m of rebate, which is exactly equivalent to paying a further £850m. And he pretty much got away with it, because people find it too difficult to understand that equivalence. The objection to the £350m claim is the same - that it stated a gross figure for a net figure. If anyone is to be held to account over the claim (and I don't see who will be - to fight "the Leave campaign" is to engage in shadow boxing), fudging their way out of it will be a piece of cake. Like everything else, arithmetic is in a post-truth phase.
    The problem with the £350 million claim is not that it quoted gross instead of net. It quoted monies we did not and do not pay. Monies we are not liable for. The rebate is not a rebate at all. To call it such implies we pay it and then get it back. It is not even officially called a rebate but an abatement since the monies never leave the UK.

    If you want to use gross figures then the UK budget contribution is around £15 billion gross (£288 million a week) or £10.2 billion net (around £196 million a week).
    But it also didn't quote money that we do pay. A significant part of our foreign aid budget for example, is remitted directly to the EU commission, and that is excluding the money that is hypothecated to specific EU projects. It's simply a payment. I researched it during the referendum, it was over a billion a year and rising, and that was in 2013 and 2014.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    Scott_P said:

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened. We were not told after Article 50 is triggered (which is an arcane technicality devoid of reality to 99.99% of people and business) nor after we actually leave (which was never going to happen immediately). We were told after we voted there would be an immediate hit and it hasn't happened.
    one more time, the Treasury were worried there would be an immediate financial hit. They told us so. They liaised extensively with the Bank of England, and, following the vote, interest rates were lowered, much to the derision of many. People (ie consumers) were reassured that we were in safe hands, kept on spending and, as we are so well aware, given the huge consumption element of GDP growth, there has been no hit.

    Voila! As they might say, "over there".
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened.

    Well, there has been an immediate financial hit.

    But the other consequences are predicated on us triggering Article 50 which we haven't done, and leaving, which we haven't done.

    If you want to argue Brexit is done, go ahead. If not, don't pretend not to understand the original forecasts.
    Even the BoE are now disowning the ex- COTE's "Michael Fish" moment - best get out whilst you can Scott.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened. We were not told after Article 50 is triggered (which is an arcane technicality devoid of reality to 99.99% of people and business) nor after we actually leave (which was never going to happen immediately). We were told after we voted there would be an immediate hit and it hasn't happened.
    one more time, the Treasury were worried there would be an immediate financial hit. They told us so. They liaised extensively with the Bank of England, and, following the vote, interest rates were lowered, much to the derision of many. People (ie consumers) were reassured that we were in safe hands, kept on spending and, as we are so well aware, given the huge consumption element of GDP growth, there has been no hit.

    Voila! As they might say, "over there".
    yeah, whatever
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    They were supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    Article 50 was supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    If you want to claim Brexit happened before Article 50, go ahead.

    Otherwise, things tend to happen in chronological order. If we ever trigger, we can have a discussion about how well it is going.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened. We were not told after Article 50 is triggered (which is an arcane technicality devoid of reality to 99.99% of people and business) nor after we actually leave (which was never going to happen immediately). We were told after we voted there would be an immediate hit and it hasn't happened.
    one more time, the Treasury were worried there would be an immediate financial hit. They told us so. They liaised extensively with the Bank of England, and, following the vote, interest rates were lowered, much to the derision of many. People (ie consumers) were reassured that we were in safe hands, kept on spending and, as we are so well aware, given the huge consumption element of GDP growth, there has been no hit.

    Voila! As they might say, "over there".
    yeah, whatever
    Hey don't shoot the messenger. :smile:
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508


    Obama scrapes a new low by blamiing Cameron on Syria as if the UK's 4 planes are going to make any differnce

    what a waste of space the creeping coward is

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/john-kerry-blames-british-parliament-derailing-us-plans-strike/

    I am very proud of what our Parliament did on that day.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    That £350m per week for the NHS has the potential to be the new 'Read my lips, no new taxes'

    Which is why the Tories will promise an extra £70m per week per year in the manifesto. That's an additional £350m per week by the end of the period and it allows for inflation to cut into the real terms amount by well over half. That will satisfy almost everyone, including voters in Lab/Con marginals who voted Leave.
    It will only satisfy those who admire creative accounting.

    And those who don't understand creative accounting. Remember Osborne halving a £1.7bn payment to the EU a couple of years ago? He didn't, we paid the lot, half by handing over £850m in cash and half by giving up £850m of rebate, which is exactly equivalent to paying a further £850m. And he pretty much got away with it, because people find it too difficult to understand that equivalence. The objection to the £350m claim is the same - that it stated a gross figure for a net figure. If anyone is to be held to account over the claim (and I don't see who will be - to fight "the Leave campaign" is to engage in shadow boxing), fudging their way out of it will be a piece of cake. Like everything else, arithmetic is in a post-truth phase.
    The problem with the £350 million claim is not that it quoted gross instead of net. It quoted monies we did not and do not pay. Monies we are not liable for. The rebate is not a rebate at all. To call it such implies we pay it and then get it back. It is not even officially called a rebate but an abatement since the monies never leave the UK.

    If you want to use gross figures then the UK budget contribution is around £15 billion gross (£288 million a week) or £10.2 billion net (around £196 million a week).
    This will not be a Brexit related priority and those that try to make it so will get enmeshed in precisely the arguments set out here; it'll be a fight with no winner. There will anyway be bigger truly Brexit related fish to fry.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened. We were not told after Article 50 is triggered (which is an arcane technicality devoid of reality to 99.99% of people and business) nor after we actually leave (which was never going to happen immediately). We were told after we voted there would be an immediate hit and it hasn't happened.
    one more time, the Treasury were worried there would be an immediate financial hit. They told us so. They liaised extensively with the Bank of England, and, following the vote, interest rates were lowered, much to the derision of many. People (ie consumers) were reassured that we were in safe hands, kept on spending and, as we are so well aware, given the huge consumption element of GDP growth, there has been no hit.

    Voila! As they might say, "over there".
    yeah, whatever
    Hey don't shoot the messenger. :smile:
    my posts are lined with dead messengers :-)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Brooke, so, we weren't at the back of the queue when it comes to Defence, then?
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Scott_P said:

    not after we left nor after Artcle 50 was triggered.

    Which bit of this is confusing you?

    If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.
    Nothing except the relevance to what I wrote. We were told after a vote to leave there would be an immediate financial hit, that hasn't happened. We were not told after Article 50 is triggered (which is an arcane technicality devoid of reality to 99.99% of people and business) nor after we actually leave (which was never going to happen immediately). We were told after we voted there would be an immediate hit and it hasn't happened.
    As is now widely acknowledged even amongst the crystal ball doom mongers
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760


    Obama scrapes a new low by blamiing Cameron on Syria as if the UK's 4 planes are going to make any differnce

    what a waste of space the creeping coward is

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/john-kerry-blames-british-parliament-derailing-us-plans-strike/

    I am very proud of what our Parliament did on that day.
    maybe yes maybe no but really Obama is just showing what a spineless piece of crap he was,

    Blaming poor Dave for his failure is just gutless.

    One can reasonably ask where was his best friend Angi and the Luftwaffe ?

    Didn't turn up, oh well.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Yorkcity said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/817358268712493056

    Nigel Farage is the Brian Clough of politics.

    Discuss.

    Brian Clough won two European cups with an unfashionable side.Maybe Farage will win two European referendums when we vote on Brexit deal.
    Did Farage win the Referendum? Wasn't it mainly the Boris/Gove show?
    Nah, it was Labour Leave wot won it:

    "Wipe the smile off their faces", and all that.
    No, it was pushing propaganda about £350m to the NHS through the natives' letterboxes, knowing it was utter, mendacious, flat lies, then bragging about it on here, and all that, wot won it.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    George Osborne, together with the former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, vows today that the hit to the economy would be so great if we vote to leave the EU that he'd hold a Budget with cuts and tax rises almost immediately.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534192

    Poor old Laura K seems to have reached a different conclusion than Scott

    Scott seems to be re defining the word immediately - a bit like Gordon Brown tried to re define "no more boom and bust"
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    edited January 2017

    Mr. Brooke, so, we weren't at the back of the queue when it comes to Defence, then?

    seems so Mr D

    while we were being asked to send our young folk home in body bags, German car manufacturers were filling US body bags via diesel fumes

    so that's all right then
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr P,

    Good on you. Keep digging and ignore the siren voices leading you to Fact Island.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Must say I am loving the new Brexit reality.

    We voted.

    That's it.

    Brexit is complete, and all is well with the World. Business is thriving, everyone is happy.

    Makes you wonder what they were so bitter about before...

    Osborne's threats were conditional on us voting leave, not voting leave and triggering Article 50, not voting leave and getting all the way through to the conclusion of Brexit..

    You lost the argument on 23 June. You personally seem determined to lose it again every single day, more embarrassingly each time.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    wait....


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

    "delivered within weeks of an out vote."

    Kin L - is it ONLY Scott who got it???

  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312


    Obama scrapes a new low by blamiing Cameron on Syria as if the UK's 4 planes are going to make any differnce

    what a waste of space the creeping coward is

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/john-kerry-blames-british-parliament-derailing-us-plans-strike/

    I am very proud of what our Parliament did on that day.
    maybe yes maybe no but really Obama is just showing what a spineless piece of crap he was,

    Blaming poor Dave for his failure is just gutless.

    One can reasonably ask where was his best friend Angi and the Luftwaffe ?

    Didn't turn up, oh well.
    The last time they turned up it was over here!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The facts are we haven't left, nor have we started the process of leaving.

    All the Brexiteers cheering our success seem to have missed this bit.

    If we ever leave, we can debate how successful it is.

    Claiming success for en event that has not taken place is pretty rich, even for the £350m quid crowd.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Can we just forget about Brexit now? Just a waste of time and effort. Some of us have business to do, we could do without this pointless distraction and disruption.

    Thanks for understanding.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    They were supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    Article 50 was supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    If you want to claim Brexit happened before Article 50, go ahead.

    Otherwise, things tend to happen in chronological order. If we ever trigger, we can have a discussion about how well it is going.
    One more time using simple words.

    After ... the ... vote ...

    Three words which one are you struggling to understand. Article 50 is a technicality for negotiations it is not the vote. Brexit was always supposed to be years later. The emergency budget would come immediate AFTER THE VOTE. Which word is confusing you? Is it vote?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    Floater said:

    wait....


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

    "delivered within weeks of an out vote."

    Kin L - is it ONLY Scott who got it???

    I'm with Scott on this one

    The pre condition was Osborne remained CoE

    Even George recognised he was a total fkwit who shouldnt be left in charge of a childs piggy bank let alone a G7 economy. George was factoring in his own ineptitude

    Once he was removed things could only get better

    To coin a phrase
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508


    Obama scrapes a new low by blamiing Cameron on Syria as if the UK's 4 planes are going to make any differnce

    what a waste of space the creeping coward is

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/06/john-kerry-blames-british-parliament-derailing-us-plans-strike/

    I am very proud of what our Parliament did on that day.
    maybe yes maybe no but really Obama is just showing what a spineless piece of crap he was,

    Blaming poor Dave for his failure is just gutless.

    One can reasonably ask where was his best friend Angi and the Luftwaffe ?

    Didn't turn up, oh well.
    No maybe about it. Would have been a clusterfuck from every angle, and could have resulted in WW3. If I ever meet Ed Milliband, I'll shake him by the hand for it before buying him a bacon sarnie.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/817400087294971905

    Approximate change since GE2015: Con +3%, Lab -3%, Ukip -1%, LD + 1%, Green 0.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    The facts are we haven't left, nor have we started the process of leaving.

    All the Brexiteers cheering our success seem to have missed this bit.

    If we ever leave, we can debate how successful it is.

    Claiming success for en event that has not taken place is pretty rich, even for the £350m quid crowd.

    We have voted to leave, we will leave, it is a matter of time as was always going to be the case.

    However the event that was claimed to be a disaster was not when we leave but when we vote to leave. You were wrong.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    One more time using simple words.

    trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away

    Which of these simple words is confusing you?
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    I have claimed nothing more than the fact that your disasters have not happened.

    None of them were predicted to come before an event that hasn't happened...

    When, and if, we actually Brexit, we can have a discussion about how successful it is. Or not.

    Until then, your pre-truth is simply garbage.
    Oh dear Scott. Seems you suffer from some terrible malady that not only gives you extremely selective memory but also makes you incapable of understanding any news you don't want to hear. The claims were post vote NOT post Brexit.

    So the person talking garbage round here is - yet again - you.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    Scott_P said:

    They were supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    Article 50 was supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    If you want to claim Brexit happened before Article 50, go ahead.

    Otherwise, things tend to happen in chronological order. If we ever trigger, we can have a discussion about how well it is going.
    One more time using simple words.

    After ... the ... vote ...

    Three words which one are you struggling to understand. Article 50 is a technicality for negotiations it is not the vote. Brexit was always supposed to be years later. The emergency budget would come immediate AFTER THE VOTE. Which word is confusing you? Is it vote?
    Luckily enough it turns out that a rate cut was sufficient such that an emergency budget was no longer required.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"


  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The new Brexit reality...

    We never trigger Article 50 (it's a mere technicality).

    We never leave.

    Everyone is happy. Right?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,963
    Floater said:

    wait....


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

    "delivered within weeks of an out vote."

    Kin L - is it ONLY Scott who got it???

    Gosh don't YOU get it??

    @ScottP is saying that Osborne's doom laden forecasts were based on David Cameron telling the truth about triggering article 50 immediately.

    Cameron lied so Osborne's doom hasn't yet come to pass

  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    "nobody knows whether this promise can be achieved" It appears that OGH has taken the post-truth pill...
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    One more time using simple words.

    trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away

    Which of these simple words is confusing you?
    None. Cameron was wrong when he uttered those words, Brexit campaigners actually said that it would make sense to delay Article 50 until a time that suited us. Again Cameron was wrong, Brexit campaigners were right.

    One wrong prediction does not explain away the other. The vote still happened.
  • Options
    Despite still being in the EU .......

    Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver is closing six of his 42 UK Jamie's Italian restaurants.

    The Aberdeen, Cheltenham, Exeter, Tunbridge Wells and in London, the Ludgate and Richmond outlets are all scheduled to close soon.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    The facts are we haven't left, nor have we started the process of leaving.

    All the Brexiteers cheering our success seem to have missed this bit.

    If we ever leave, we can debate how successful it is.

    Claiming success for en event that has not taken place is pretty rich, even for the £350m quid crowd.

    No, the argument is about the failure of predictions of the immediate consequences of a "Leave" vote, which is an event which has taken place.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    The new Brexit reality...

    We never trigger Article 50 (it's a mere technicality).

    We never leave.

    Everyone is happy. Right?

    I genuinely think that a return to blue passports as a symbol of UK exceptionalism within the EU would assuage a lot of people. It's changing stuff that people can see that matters. Whether the Commission has the final say on competition law or the CJEU decides on the validity of a patent is really not keeping people awake at night.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,963

    Scott_P said:

    I have claimed nothing more than the fact that your disasters have not happened.

    None of them were predicted to come before an event that hasn't happened...

    When, and if, we actually Brexit, we can have a discussion about how successful it is. Or not.

    Until then, your pre-truth is simply garbage.
    Oh dear Scott. Seems you suffer from some terrible malady that not only gives you extremely selective memory but also makes you incapable of understanding any news you don't want to hear. The claims were post vote NOT post Brexit.

    So the person talking garbage round here is - yet again - you.
    He is now repeatedly quoting a lie from Cameron to support his case.. a beautiful touch
  • Options
    Jobabob said:

    Yorkcity said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/817358268712493056

    Nigel Farage is the Brian Clough of politics.

    Discuss.

    Brian Clough won two European cups with an unfashionable side.Maybe Farage will win two European referendums when we vote on Brexit deal.
    Did Farage win the Referendum? Wasn't it mainly the Boris/Gove show?
    Nah, it was Labour Leave wot won it:

    "Wipe the smile off their faces", and all that.
    No, it was pushing propaganda about £350m to the NHS through the natives' letterboxes, knowing it was utter, mendacious, flat lies, then bragging about it on here, and all that, wot won it.
    So you post post-truth.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    They were supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    Article 50 was supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    If you want to claim Brexit happened before Article 50, go ahead.

    Otherwise, things tend to happen in chronological order. If we ever trigger, we can have a discussion about how well it is going.
    One more time using simple words.

    After ... the ... vote ...

    Three words which one are you struggling to understand. Article 50 is a technicality for negotiations it is not the vote. Brexit was always supposed to be years later. The emergency budget would come immediate AFTER THE VOTE. Which word is confusing you? Is it vote?
    Luckily enough it turns out that a rate cut was sufficient such that an emergency budget was no longer required.
    Not only no longer required but we outgrew predictions for if we Remained. Leaves one wondering why was Osborne so incompetent as to not predict that. Or why Remainers were predicting rates would go UP if we voted to Leave now down?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,674
    Jobabob said:

    Yorkcity said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/817358268712493056

    Nigel Farage is the Brian Clough of politics.

    Discuss.

    Brian Clough won two European cups with an unfashionable side.Maybe Farage will win two European referendums when we vote on Brexit deal.
    Did Farage win the Referendum? Wasn't it mainly the Boris/Gove show?
    Nah, it was Labour Leave wot won it:

    "Wipe the smile off their faces", and all that.
    No, it was pushing propaganda about £350m to the NHS through the natives' letterboxes, knowing it was utter, mendacious, flat lies, then bragging about it on here, and all that, wot won it.
    Happy New Year Mr Job!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114

    Scott_P said:

    The new Brexit reality...

    We never trigger Article 50 (it's a mere technicality).

    We never leave.

    Everyone is happy. Right?

    I genuinely think that a return to blue passports as a symbol of UK exceptionalism within the EU would assuage a lot of people. It's changing stuff that people can see that matters. Whether the Commission has the final say on competition law or the CJEU decides on the validity of a patent is really not keeping people awake at night.
    Well it keeps Bill Cash awake at night, but by the time we're finished even he will wish he'd never heard the word 'Brexit'.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    No, the argument is about the failure of predictions of the immediate consequences of a "Leave" vote

    which would lead to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away, an event which as you correctly note has not taken place...
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    edited January 2017
    BigRich said:

    This is a back of and envelope calculation, so if I'm out then please correct me,

    The NHS budget is £120.661 billion in 2016/17

    According to this website: http://www.nhsconfed.org/resources/key-statistics-on-the-

    divided by 52 weeks: 2,320 million.

    if increased by 4.9% in 17/18 that would be: £2,433 mil

    and again in 18/19: £2,552 mil

    and in 19/20 (the first full year after Brexit!) £2,678 mil

    2,678 - 2320 = 358 mil

    Considering some of that 4.9% increase will be accounted for by, inflation and rise in population anyway. I am surprised that May/Hamond don't do it anyway, and reap a massive popularity bones

    While I'm not normally a fan a populism in any form, it would allow them to implement some of the good but unpopular, reforms the economy would benefit form!

    Absolutely! Assuming the timetable runs roughly to plan, that we leave the EU early in 2019, it would be a weirdly apolitical Chancellor who didn't ensure that the gap between NHS funding in 2015 and 2020 or 2021 wasn't the magic figure of £350m, so it could be hung from billboards all over the country in the run up to the 2020 election.

    For bonus points in Scotland and Wales (where the Tories are the opposition) challenge the govts in those regions to make matching additional funding available to meet the target. "England's NHS got a Brexit bonus, why shouldn't Scotland/Wales have the same? Vote Conservative"
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr P,

    As a fan of the Black Knight sketch from the Monty Python film, may I just say that the resemblance is uncanny?

    Please carry on.

    "Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for me."
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114
    isam said:


    Floater said:

    wait....


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

    "delivered within weeks of an out vote."

    Kin L - is it ONLY Scott who got it???

    Gosh don't YOU get it??

    @ScottP is saying that Osborne's doom laden forecasts were based on David Cameron telling the truth about triggering article 50 immediately.

    Cameron lied so Osborne's doom hasn't yet come to pass
    You seem to be ignoring the context of the referendum campaign which was kicked off by Boris Johnson saying 'vote leave' to get a better deal to stay. In that context any rhetoric about the effect of 'a vote to leave' was just to counter that position.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    How serious of an effect do people think A50 declaration will have on the economy? Surely it has been priced in now, given that it isn't really in question of if it will be triggered? I think any change will be driven by the changes in the negotiating position over time.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017

    Despite still being in the EU .......

    Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver is closing six of his 42 UK Jamie's Italian restaurants.

    The Aberdeen, Cheltenham, Exeter, Tunbridge Wells and in London, the Ludgate and Richmond outlets are all scheduled to close soon.

    Jamie Oliver also closed three of his four Union Jacks restaurants, citing tough economic circumstances. - That was back in Jan 2014 which I believed came before Brexit. – His business model looks duff imho, that or the novelty has warn off.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    isam said:


    Floater said:

    wait....


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

    "delivered within weeks of an out vote."

    Kin L - is it ONLY Scott who got it???

    Gosh don't YOU get it??

    @ScottP is saying that Osborne's doom laden forecasts were based on David Cameron telling the truth about triggering article 50 immediately.

    Cameron lied so Osborne's doom hasn't yet come to pass
    You seem to be ignoring the context of the referendum campaign which was kicked off by Boris Johnson saying 'vote leave' to get a better deal to stay. In that context any rhetoric about the effect of 'a vote to leave' was just to counter that position.
    I rather understood that the referendum campaign was kicked off by our Remainer PM calling a vote

    we're only here because remainers made it possible
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    One more time using simple words.

    trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away

    Which of these simple words is confusing you?
    None. Cameron was wrong when he uttered those words, Brexit campaigners actually said that it would make sense to delay Article 50 until a time that suited us. Again Cameron was wrong, Brexit campaigners were right.

    One wrong prediction does not explain away the other. The vote still happened.

    Cameron wasn't predicting, he was lying. The Brexit campaigners have undoubtedly been proved right on this.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
    LOL! That's a good analogy.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    No, the argument is about the failure of predictions of the immediate consequences of a "Leave" vote

    which would lead to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away, an event which as you correctly note has not taken place...
    Not what Osborne said, and not what he meant. Stop embarrassing yourself. Take some time out and watch a nice, relaxing dvd. Groundhog Day, perhaps.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited January 2017

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    They were supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    Article 50 was supposed to come immediately after the vote.

    If you want to claim Brexit happened before Article 50, go ahead.

    Otherwise, things tend to happen in chronological order. If we ever trigger, we can have a discussion about how well it is going.
    One more time using simple words.

    After ... the ... vote ...

    Three words which one are you struggling to understand. Article 50 is a technicality for negotiations it is not the vote. Brexit was always supposed to be years later. The emergency budget would come immediate AFTER THE VOTE. Which word is confusing you? Is it vote?
    Luckily enough it turns out that a rate cut was sufficient such that an emergency budget was no longer required.
    Not only no longer required but we outgrew predictions for if we Remained. Leaves one wondering why was Osborne so incompetent as to not predict that. Or why Remainers were predicting rates would go UP if we voted to Leave now down?
    Well as I pointed out before, the BoE is independent. It has a remit of promoting stability, plus an inflation target. A lot changed between June 23rd and June 24th and as in all cases, there is a range of policy options between the Bank and the Treasury. An emergency budget would presumably have been designed to release liquidity into the market via a fiscal transfer of some kind. But the Bank provided that liquidity with a rate cut.

    What underpins all this is the makeup of a worryingly large proportion of our economic growth. When we say "economic growth" we should, rather, say "people going out shopping" as a shorthand. Anything to keep people going out shopping will maintain economic growth. A rate cut helped to achieve that (as might have a tax cut from a budget, say).
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114
    edited January 2017
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
    In your analogy the UK's economic performance is more akin to the company's revenues, not its share price, where you could more readily draw an analogy with the GBP exchange rate which as you know got hammered.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Gotta love Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg, formerly of Bergen city council, "Iron Erna" according to the Norwegian yellow press, for saying that Britain hasn't got enough experience in international negotiations to achieve a desirable type of Brexit. As if the "Oslo accords" actually worked. Eaten too much brunost, Erna? But look who's the superpower in EFTA. My views on Norway and Sweden wouldn't be publishable here.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:

    The facts are we haven't left, nor have we started the process of leaving.

    All the Brexiteers cheering our success seem to have missed this bit.

    If we ever leave, we can debate how successful it is.

    Claiming success for en event that has not taken place is pretty rich, even for the £350m quid crowd.

    I would suggest that the process has started. The debate is part of that process and a valuable part as it shows only too clearly the wretchedness of the remoaners who search for evidence that the end of the world is nigh as was promised by the doom monger crystal ball gazers. Scott would obviously suit a sandwich board.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,963

    isam said:


    Floater said:

    wait....


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

    "delivered within weeks of an out vote."

    Kin L - is it ONLY Scott who got it???

    Gosh don't YOU get it??

    @ScottP is saying that Osborne's doom laden forecasts were based on David Cameron telling the truth about triggering article 50 immediately.

    Cameron lied so Osborne's doom hasn't yet come to pass
    You seem to be ignoring the context of the referendum campaign which was kicked off by Boris Johnson saying 'vote leave' to get a better deal to stay. In that context any rhetoric about the effect of 'a vote to leave' was just to counter that position.
    What the posh boys said to get us over the line is a matter of supreme indifference to me
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    edited January 2017

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
    In your analogy the UK's economic performance is more akin to the company's revenues, not its share price, where you could more readily draw an analogy with the GBP exchange rate which as you know got hammered.
    The GBP has been over valued for most of the last decade

    in other news

    record car sales
    construction manufacturing and service PMIs rise
    UK fastest growing G7 economy

    etc.
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    Despite still being in the EU .......

    Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver is closing six of his 42 UK Jamie's Italian restaurants.

    The Aberdeen, Cheltenham, Exeter, Tunbridge Wells and in London, the Ludgate and Richmond outlets are all scheduled to close soon.

    I am amazed the Aberdeen one has stayed open so long. The city is at the tail end of a 2 year massive oil slump that has seen around 120,000 jobs lost in the UK sector. A huge number of those in and around Aberdeen.

    A lot of these restaurants existed up there because of company expense accounts and people with huge amounts of disposable income. The last year has seen dozens close and Jamie's was not even one of the good ones.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
    In your analogy the UK's economic performance is more akin to the company's revenues, not its share price, where you could more readily draw an analogy with the GBP exchange rate which as you know got hammered.
    The GBP has been over valued for most of the last decade

    in other news

    record car sales
    construction manufacturing and service PMIs rise
    UK fastest growing G7 economy

    etc.
    Which follows from a big drop in the value of the pound.
    It's good for the economy ..... for a while.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,114

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
    In your analogy the UK's economic performance is more akin to the company's revenues, not its share price, where you could more readily draw an analogy with the GBP exchange rate which as you know got hammered.
    The GBP has been over valued for most of the last decade

    in other news

    record car sales
    construction manufacturing and service PMIs rise
    UK fastest growing G7 economy

    etc.
    Leaving the EU in order to weaken the pound does seem rather like using a daisy cutter to crack a nut.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Accurate - but not happy reading if you are a fan of the Labour party or even of having a semi competent and believable opposition.

    https://capx.co/labour-is-ludicrous-but-its-no-laughing-matter/
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott is suggesting that if a top CE was to announce his retirement from a listed company, the share price wouldn't react until his last day in the office as well - "he hasn't quit yet"

    We haven't announced we're leaving yet...

    We have said we will announce it. Maybe. In March. Depending on the court case. And Parliament.

    We will definitely get right on it. At some point.
    FT : "Top CEO announces intention to stand down"
    FT : "Share price unaffected as he hasn't handed letter to HR yet..."
    In your analogy the UK's economic performance is more akin to the company's revenues, not its share price, where you could more readily draw an analogy with the GBP exchange rate which as you know got hammered.
    The GBP has been over valued for most of the last decade

    in other news

    record car sales
    construction manufacturing and service PMIs rise
    UK fastest growing G7 economy

    etc.
    Which follows from a big drop in the value of the pound.
    It's good for the economy ..... for a while.
    maybe the pound wouldnt have dropped quite so much if we hadnt cut interest rates

    which of course was driven by the"experts" fucking up their forecasts

    at least they now admit they got it wrong too many PB remainers cant




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