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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting a sense of proportion over rail fares: the overwhelmin

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    philiph said:

    The vote is history.

    Indeed. Now we're dealing with the aftermath. The people's opinion on that is highly relevant in a democracy. It seems people are not convinced that proceeding with Brexit is proving to be all it's cracked up to be.
    People have hardly changed their minds at all (and to the extent that they have, they largely cancel each other out).
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    On topic. and leaving aside the facts that the car causes deaths and maimings in the millions through pollution, physical inactivity and outright collisions, this graph might help us to understand why desperation, and not a supposed increase in efficiency by privatisation, may be the main reason for the increase in passenger numbers.

    I would label the difference, in suitable units, between the two curves "DE" for "desperation index".

    http://nosearmy.com/roadpricing/GettingAroundp2.htm

    Just a coincidence then, that passenger numbers have doubled since privatisation, after decades of decline (and, IIRC, passenger-miles have increased even more, to an all time high)?
    That road mileage map doesn't seem to differentiate between B roads and motorways either.
    Nor does it seem to distinguish vehicle type. But look, in my family we four kids were given often extensive use of the one car my dad owned. Nowadays it's a birth-right apparently for each to have his/her own. Speaking from the worm's eye view of a full time walker and cyclist I know well that numbers are up by many times since I sold my only car in 1973.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Now confirmed. I will be on Newsnight tonight.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    Now confirmed. I will be on Newsnight tonight.

    Your predictions are off to a good start.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It looks as though I'll be on Newsnight tonight discussing predictions for 2017.

    Jeremy Corbyn -- one interesting thing in the Fabian report is that Labour still polls at 2010 levels south of the border, so despite everything (and acknowledging that Labour ought normally to have improved on that) Labour's problems may be structural.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "CGT isn't payable on death. IHT is."

    Pedantry still stalks the earth despite Trump and Brexit :)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited January 2017

    "Whether we are successful outside the EU will have very little to do with negotiations with the EU. This is the biggest lie around."

    Abject nonsense. We will have more chance of attracting investment from outside the EU the more closely integrated into the single market we are. Our ability to do beneficial FTAs with non-EU countries will also be pretty dependent on that. These are issues that will be decided by negotiation with EU member states.

    Yes. All of which is a total side dish to whether we actually have a SUCCESSFUL ECONOMY. You know, by selling things to people? Like the device you're typing on that probably came from a country we don't have a whizz-bang FTA with? Or the clothes on your back which (unless you can afford Italy) probably also came from one of those countries? The Indian call centre you ring, the American TV shows you watch, need I go on?

    It's like the British economy has stopped - interest rates, national debt, public spending - none of it exists any more pending whether the EU are nice to us in the Brexit negotiations!!1!! It's the biggest load of weak-minded one-eyed tripe I've ever heard. And sadly some Leavers are as infected by it (though positive about the outcome) as their Remainer counterparts.
    Excess household debt, consumption-fuelled economic growth, asset price bubbles: all huge problems. But leaving the EU isn't going to solve any of them. They are, as you say, longstanding and endemic. Do you not think it possible that the type of restructuring of society which you desire will be more difficult if we at the same time are contending with such huge disruption of our various trade flows and pre-existing commercial, legal, and regulatory relationships?

    To say nothing of whether any politician, Brexiter or otherwise, actually wishes to undertake such a venture. You are hoping that the shock of Brexit will spur UK politicians on to do so. Not 100% sure you're right, there.

    Sink or swim is not a fantastically sensible or pragmatic or successful political philosophy.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,914

    Now confirmed. I will be on Newsnight tonight.

    Congratulations!
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    It looks as though I'll be on Newsnight tonight discussing predictions for 2017.

    Is that a prediction?

    Seriously though, good luck. It is a horrible year to predict; so much could happen but equally, could pass without incident.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    edited January 2017
    @LuckyGuy - You can only sell things to people if you make them. You can only make them if people have invested in creating the manufacturing capability. People will only invest if they believe they will get a return. Thus, the UK has to offer the most attractive environment possible to investors. And, whether you like it or not, access to and integration with the wider European market is going to be a significant part of that. And, whether you like it or not, that will depend on our ability to get a good Brexit deal from the EU member states. No amount of Leaver willy-waving is going to change that. Sorry.
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    Now confirmed. I will be on Newsnight tonight.

    So you want me to ring you at 10.30pmish and say

    'Mike, you know you're on the telly?'
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    TOPPING said:

    You are hoping that the shock of Brexit will spur UK politicians on to do so. Not 100% sure you're right, there.

    Sink or swim is not a fantastically sensible or pragmatic or successful political philosophy.

    Someone with Luckyguy's objectives would be better off advocating we join the Euro to take away the government's ability to use control of the currency as a fig leaf.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    edited January 2017
    Well that's my childhood ruined.

    POSTMAN RAT Bizarre conspiracy theory suggests Postman Pat was a womaniser who fathered all children in Greendale goes viral

    It points to the fact all the kids in the village share his long nose and thick, curly red hair, despite their parents' locks being different colours

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2523640/shocking-conspiracy-theory-suggests-postman-pat-was-a-womaniser-who-fathered-all-children-in-greendale-goes-viral/
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    On topic. and leaving aside the facts that the car causes deaths and maimings in the millions through pollution, physical inactivity and outright collisions, this graph might help us to understand why desperation, and not a supposed increase in efficiency by privatisation, may be the main reason for the increase in passenger numbers.

    I would label the difference, in suitable units, between the two curves "DE" for "desperation index".

    http://nosearmy.com/roadpricing/GettingAroundp2.htm

    Just a coincidence then, that passenger numbers have doubled since privatisation, after decades of decline (and, IIRC, passenger-miles have increased even more, to an all time high)?
    That road mileage map doesn't seem to differentiate between B roads and motorways either.
    Nor does it seem to distinguish vehicle type. But look, in my family we four kids were given often extensive use of the one car my dad owned. Nowadays it's a birth-right apparently for each to have his/her own. Speaking from the worm's eye view of a full time walker and cyclist I know well that numbers are up by many times since I sold my only car in 1973.
    One possible remedy might be to use a one-strike-and-you're-out policy towards lawbreaking mobile phone users, and incidentally, maybe birqa wearing drivers too.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017

    Now confirmed. I will be on Newsnight tonight.

    Brave, tis one thing to make predictions on PB.Com, quite another to do it on national TV.

    Good luck :lol:
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    On topic. and leaving aside the facts that the car causes deaths and maimings in the millions through pollution, physical inactivity and outright collisions, this graph might help us to understand why desperation, and not a supposed increase in efficiency by privatisation, may be the main reason for the increase in passenger numbers.

    I would label the difference, in suitable units, between the two curves "DE" for "desperation index".

    http://nosearmy.com/roadpricing/GettingAroundp2.htm

    Just a coincidence then, that passenger numbers have doubled since privatisation, after decades of decline (and, IIRC, passenger-miles have increased even more, to an all time high)?
    That road mileage map doesn't seem to differentiate between B roads and motorways either.
    Nor does it seem to distinguish vehicle type. But look, in my family we four kids were given often extensive use of the one car my dad owned. Nowadays it's a birth-right apparently for each to have his/her own. Speaking from the worm's eye view of a full time walker and cyclist I know well that numbers are up by many times since I sold my only car in 1973.
    Not so much a birthright, more a consequence of how the insurance industry works. Let your kids drive your own car and your premiums soar while they don't earn any no claims discount. Financially it makes more sense to get them their own (cheap!) car and insure it in their own name.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    TOPPING said:

    "Whether we are successful outside the EU will have very little to do with negotiations with the EU. This is the biggest lie around."

    Abject nonsense. We will have more chance of attracting investment from outside the EU the more closely integrated into the single market we are. Our ability to do beneficial FTAs with non-EU countries will also be pretty dependent on that. These are issues that will be decided by negotiation with EU member states.

    Yes. All of which is a total side dish to whether we actually have a SUCCESSFUL ECONOMY. You know, by selling things to people? Like the device you're typing on that probably came from a country we don't have a whizz-bang FTA with? Or the clothes on your back which (unless you can afford Italy) probably also came from one of those countries? The Indian call centre you ring, the American TV shows you watch, need I go on?

    It's like the British economy has stopped - interest rates, national debt, public spending - none of it exists any more pending whether the EU are nice to us in the Brexit negotiations!!1!! It's the biggest load of weak-minded one-eyed tripe I've ever heard. And sadly some Leavers are as infected by it (though positive about the outcome) as their Remainer counterparts.
    Excess household debt, consumption-fuelled economic growth, asset price bubbles: all huge problems. But leaving the EU isn't going to solve any of them. They are, as you say, longstanding and endemic. Do you not think it possible that the type of restructuring of society which you desire will be more difficult if we at the same time are contending with such huge disruption of our various trade flows and pre-existing commercial, legal, and regulatory relationships?

    To say nothing of whether any politician, Brexiter or otherwise, actually wishes to undertake such a venture. You are hoping that the shock of Brexit will spur UK politicians on to do so. Not 100% sure you're right, there.

    Sink or swim is not a fantastically sensible or pragmatic or successful political philosophy.
    I think that a strong economy must rest on a strong society, and that involves a high degree of democratic participation, and strongly-enforced laws that the people are invested in - the EU and its direction of travel is inimical to those aims.

    Concurrently, if we want a strong economy, I believe we're going to have to compete strongly, on tax and regulation. Again, that's totally against the EU's direction of travel. The whole point of the EU (with the exception of Germany, which seems to be gaming the system very well) is, and must be, massive wealth transfer between its richer and poorer parts.

    Being out of the EU does not sheild us from failure (nor does being in it), but it is an opportunity to succeed.

  • Options
    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    On topic. and leaving aside the facts that the car causes deaths and maimings in the millions through pollution, physical inactivity and outright collisions, this graph might help us to understand why desperation, and not a supposed increase in efficiency by privatisation, may be the main reason for the increase in passenger numbers.

    I would label the difference, in suitable units, between the two curves "DE" for "desperation index".

    http://nosearmy.com/roadpricing/GettingAroundp2.htm

    Just a coincidence then, that passenger numbers have doubled since privatisation, after decades of decline (and, IIRC, passenger-miles have increased even more, to an all time high)?
    That road mileage map doesn't seem to differentiate between B roads and motorways either.
    Nor does it seem to distinguish vehicle type. But look, in my family we four kids were given often extensive use of the one car my dad owned. Nowadays it's a birth-right apparently for each to have his/her own. Speaking from the worm's eye view of a full time walker and cyclist I know well that numbers are up by many times since I sold my only car in 1973.
    One possible remedy might be to use a one-strike-and-you're-out policy towards lawbreaking mobile phone users, and incidentally, maybe birqa wearing drivers too.
    Can we ban and throw into a vat of boiling liquid those car drivers who stop their cars in awkward places to answer the bloody phone.

    You know, on blind bends, those sort of places.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    I never use my mobile telephone whilst driving. This is partly because I don't have a phone, and partly because I don't have a car.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    I never use my mobile telephone whilst driving. This is partly because I don't have a phone, and partly because I don't have a car.

    :D
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    NEW THREAD

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Quick quiz

    No Google...

    - What was the name of the dog that found the stolen World Cup?

    Or

    - Where was Mrs Lincoln held as an insanity patient?
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ Topping "Sink or swim is not a fantastically sensible or pragmatic or successful political philosophy"

    Actually, it is the only successful long term economic policy. And the smaller the economic world gets, the more this will hold true and the more damaging government intervention, be it through cash or other barriers to competition, will be.

    Do the best footballers come from schools where competition is banned? Where praise is given for participation? No, I think not. Protecting little Johnny from the big bad world kills personal development, just as protecting our economy from competition kills innovation, adoption of best practice, and productivity.

    Sure, the Brexit deal we get will affect the baseline from which we proceed. But it will not, as Lucky says, determine our success as a nation. Fortunately, after Brexit (unless it is Brexit in name only), that will be in our power to decide. It won't be guaranteed, but our chances of success surely are better in our own hands than in those of faceless, unaccountable bureaucrats in Brussels and Strashourg.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,691
    "US car giant Ford has said it will cancel a $1.6bn plant it planned to build in Mexico but will extend its operations at its factory in Michigan."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38497898
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    "US car giant Ford has said it will cancel a $1.6bn plant it planned to build in Mexico but will extend its operations at its factory in Michigan."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38497898

    :lol:
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    PlatoSaid said:

    Quick quiz

    No Google...

    - What was the name of the dog that found the stolen World Cup?

    Or

    - Where was Mrs Lincoln held as an insanity patient?

    Pickles. Dunno.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited January 2017

    TOPPING said:

    "Whether we are successful outside the EU will have very little to do with negotiations with the EU. This is the biggest lie around."

    Abjecstates.

    Yes. arts.
    Excess househnot a fantastically sensible or pragmatic or successful political philosophy.
    I think that a strong economy must rest on a strong society, and that involves a high degree of democratic participation, and strongly-enforced laws that the people are invested in - the EU and its direction of travel is inimical to those aims.

    Concurrently, if we want a strong economy, I believe we're going to have to compete strongly, on tax and regulation. Again, that's totally against the EU's direction of travel. The whole point of the EU (with the exception of Germany, which seems to be gaming the system very well) is, and must be, massive wealth transfer between its richer and poorer parts.

    Being out of the EU does not sheild us from failure (nor does being in it), but it is an opportunity to succeed.

    Apart from Jacob Rees-Mogg and his cohorts I really am not sure that the EU has figured in anyone's upper consciousness save for the odd straight banana story in the Daily Mail. More likely, as we have seen countless times, it has been something for UK politicians to blame when something has gone wrong, or where they have failed policy-wise. Do you think that the opportunity to blame the EU will increase or decrease once we leave? If they blame it when all is supposedly working in harmony (!), how much more do you think it will be blamed once there is any degree of discord, which there is bound to be with Brexit?

    You are saying that we should kick away the crutch of the EU and that in any case it is heading in a different direction to us. Fair enough; it was (I won't mention D***'s D**l).

    Nor do I think a strong society is incompatible with membership of the EU. Perhaps we all feel european as well as British. No different from our respective feelings during, say, the Six Nations. We all know where there have been problems with a cohesive, strong society over the past few years and that has had nothing to do with the EU.

    In short, as has been rehearsed very often and not just on here, I believe the EU vote was an attempt to wrest control back from an increasingly complex and unpredictable and unfair world, the catalyst being the GFC. I really do not see Brexit as addressing any of these factors which are, sadly perhaps, a part of life in the world today.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Quick quiz

    No Google...

    - What was the name of the dog that found the stolen World Cup?

    Or

    - Where was Mrs Lincoln held as an insanity patient?

    Pickles. Dunno.
    Ha! Well done on Pickles. The other is so obvious to anyone who watches sci-fi drama.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited January 2017

    I never use my mobile telephone whilst driving. This is partly because I don't have a phone, and partly because I don't have a car.

    I'll need to draw a Venn diagram for that one.
    But you're a civilised fellow in my book.
    Incidentally, fascination for fit chaps with quick reflexes driving around a track at ridiculous speeds is quirky, but safe for the rest of us. Usually.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Toms said:

    I never use my mobile telephone whilst driving. This is partly because I don't have a phone, and partly because I don't have a car.

    I'll need to draw a Venn diagram for that one.
    But you're a civilised fellow in my book.
    Incidentally, fascination fit chaps with quick reflexes driving around a track at ridiculous speeds is quirky, but safe for the rest of us. Usually.
    Combining those topics, presumably Formula 1 teams will know precisely to what extent driving is affected by talking over the radio.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    TOPPING said:


    Apart from Jacob Rees-Mogg and his cohorts I really am not sure that the EU has figured in anyone's upper consciousness save for the odd straight banana story in the Daily Mail. More likely, as we have seen countless times, it has been something for UK politicians to blame when something has gone wrong, or where they have failed policy-wise. Do you think that the opportunity to blame the EU will increase or decrease once we leave? If they blame it when all is supposedly working in harmony (!), how much more do you think it will be blamed once there is any degree of discord, which there is bound to be with Brexit?

    You are saying that we should kick away the crutch of the EU and that in any case it is heading in a different direction to us. Fair enough; it was (I won't mention D***'s D**l).

    Nor do I think a strong society is incompatible with membership of the EU. Perhaps we all feel european as well as British. No different from our respective feelings during, say, the Six Nations. We all know where there have been problems with a cohesive, strong society over the past few years and that has had nothing to do with the EU.

    In short, as has been rehearsed very often and not just on here, I believe the EU vote was an attempt to wrest control back from an increasingly complex and unpredictable and unfair world, the catalyst being the GFC. I really do not see Brexit as addressing any of these factors which are, sadly perhaps, a part of life in the world today.

    It will obviously decrease - though actually I totally disagree with you about politician's tendency to blame the EU. Conversely, I believe that much (in most cases bad) legislation was passed on topics as wide-ranging as reservoirs and rail, based upon European directives, with as little reference as possible made about its EU origin. It is therefore hardly surprising that the EU hasn't loomed large in people's consciousness, but a large and growing cohort nevertheless grew to resent its usurpation of our country's sovereignty.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    One tweet from The Donald and the House reverses its position.

    A tirade against US industry, and suddenly costs and relocation plans get changed.

    Can he really be an effective President?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    MTimT said:

    Can he really be an effective President?

    I tried to tell you months ago... ;)
This discussion has been closed.