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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not just Manchester where there’ll be 2017 directly elect

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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    I note Leavers' support is wavering considerably more than that of Remainers.

    Interesting.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    As I've been saying on here for ages, people need to consider the pressure on Turkey from all fronts (including its own leaders(*)). Sadly the war is spreading, as I predicted back in 2013. People are frightened.

    (*) For the people reading this from the MİT/NIO, I am joking.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    edited December 2016
    isam said:

    Right wing nutter or Islamic Extremist? The new guessing game for 2017

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/810900126029877248

    Might well be left-wing: Turkey has a plethora of active terrorist groups of all persuasions: it isn't just the PKK.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_People's_Liberation_Party/Front

    Apologies. Read the wrong tab in my browser.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930

    isam said:

    Right wing nutter or Islamic Extremist? The new guessing game for 2017

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/810900126029877248

    Might well be left-wing: Turkey has a plethora of active terrorist groups of all persuasions: it isn't just the PKK.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_People's_Liberation_Party/Front
    Apologies. Read the wrong tab in my browser.

    This isn't you is it? ☺️

    https://youtu.be/M2AWKfMvDtw
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
    Putin could use it as a pretext, but for what it's not clear. Erdogan and Putin are ideological allies these days.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
    The hit's already happened/happening: visitor numbers from Russia this summer down 79%.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-27/turkey-tourism-capsized-by-tensions-as-arrivals-show-record-drop
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    edited December 2016
    isam said:

    This isn't you is it? ☺️
    (Snip)

    LOL! Never seen that before!

    In my defence, there is one major story at the moment, and I have 21 tabs open in this window ...
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
    Difficult to know what a reasonable response is though... You think Putin will try to stop Russian tourists holidaying in Turkey?
    I wouldnt be surprised if a few Turkish diplomats in Moscow get roughwd up or worse...
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    Essexit said:

    How nice it would be just to sweep away the whole mess of District Councils, County Councils, devolved assemblies, and now these combined authorities and replace them with sensible-sized unitaries.

    Which is more or less what was proposed by the Redcliffe-Maud Commission in 1969.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    The assassin apparently was then Shot dead by his own colleagues
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
    Yes, it's not really on for state employees to assassinate foreign ambassadors. Difficult to argue it's not an act of war.

    I imagine they will close the Russian embassy, evacuate all Russians in Turkey and ban flights between the two countries, as an absolute minimum. Hopefully it won't escalate much further than that, but Mr Putin is hardly known for his soft diplomatic skills in such situations.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    edited December 2016
    The poll breakdown shows a clear swing to Remain since the referendum (and that's without the 'Trump' adjustment where you add the don't knows to the most controversial choice - in this case reversing the referendum result).

    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CNN_Brexit-Six-Months-On-Survey_December-2016.pdf
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    On topic... Does anyone actually care about elected mayor's? Feels like police crime commissioners again... People jusr won't bother to turn up to vote.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    The poll breakdown shows a clear swing to Remain since the referendum (and that's without the 'Trump' adjustment where you add the don't knows to the most controversial choice - in this case reversing the referendum result).

    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CNN_Brexit-Six-Months-On-Survey_December-2016.pdf

    Perhaps you can take the time to remind us of the result Comres projected back in June.

    :wink:
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    rkrkrk said:

    On topic... Does anyone actually care about elected mayor's? Feels like police crime commissioners again... People jusr won't bother to turn up to vote.

    You can't live in London, then.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    edited December 2016
    Explaining the verdict, which took many by surprise, Judge Martine Ract Madoux was quoted by Reuters as saying: "The context of the global financial crisis in which Madame Lagarde found herself in should be taken into account."

    She also cited Ms Lagarde's good reputation and international standing as reasons.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38369822

    I'd suggest that this is not a good advert for the international elite.
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    Russia will probably not act too hastily. Turkey is entitled to close the straits if it is at war or threatened by aggression.

    I expect that we will see economic rather than military measures.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
    Yes, it's not really on for state employees to assassinate foreign ambassadors. Difficult to argue it's not an act of war.

    I imagine they will close the Russian embassy, evacuate all Russians in Turkey and ban flights between the two countries, as an absolute minimum. Hopefully it won't escalate much further than that, but Mr Putin is hardly known for his soft diplomatic skills in such situations.

    I'm sure there was no intention on the part of Turkish government to do this... Rheyre not bonkers...
    Trouble is a big part of the Putim brand is being the tough guy people respect... So very hard for him to show restraint
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Mrs Sandpit is watching Russian news, they are apparently reporting that the assassin policeman was not on duty. This seems to contradict the photographs from the scene - Russia trying to downplay it initially, waiting for the 'official' response from VP?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2016

    The poll breakdown shows a clear swing to Remain since the referendum (and that's without the 'Trump' adjustment where you add the don't knows to the most controversial choice - in this case reversing the referendum result).

    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CNN_Brexit-Six-Months-On-Survey_December-2016.pdf

    And your point is precisely what ?? You needed that in June 16 not December 16 even if this poll actually means anything at all.

    its interesting though that when polls show what you want how quickly you start to believe in them again.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Russia will probably not act too hastily. Turkey is entitled to close the straits if it is at war or threatened by aggression.

    I expect that we will see economic rather than military measures.

    Putin is probably counting down the days till Trump is in charge of the US presidency I'd imagine.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic... Does anyone actually care about elected mayor's? Feels like police crime commissioners again... People jusr won't bother to turn up to vote.

    You can't live in London, then.
    I used to live in London... Always felt like a fairly meaningless popularity contest tbh... Mst people I knew had very little idea of what the story did anyway...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How will Putin react? Hard to imagine he will accept an apology...

    Well I wouldn't if I was in his position.

    To have your ambassador executed by a police officer of your host country is reason for extraordinary measures.

    Turkey has(d?) a trmendous number of Russian tourists on its coasts in the summer. The first hit will be economic, quite rightly too.
    Yes, it's not really on for state employees to assassinate foreign ambassadors. Difficult to argue it's not an act of war.

    I imagine they will close the Russian embassy, evacuate all Russians in Turkey and ban flights between the two countries, as an absolute minimum. Hopefully it won't escalate much further than that, but Mr Putin is hardly known for his soft diplomatic skills in such situations.

    I'm sure there was no intention on the part of Turkish government to do this... Rheyre not bonkers...
    Trouble is a big part of the Putim brand is being the tough guy people respect... So very hard for him to show restraint
    There are other issues. Amongst other things, it will be interesting to discover how long this bastard has been in the police and his current role. Given Erdogan's been arresting / suspending / sacking many thousands of police since the abortive coup, it'll be embarrassing if he's been arresting the wrong people. And much worse if this guy's been recruited or promoted since.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Pulpstar said:

    Russia will probably not act too hastily. Turkey is entitled to close the straits if it is at war or threatened by aggression.

    I expect that we will see economic rather than military measures.

    Putin is probably counting down the days till Trump is in charge of the US presidency I'd imagine.
    This is an interesting story, although intended as an attempt to show that Trump is compromised by his business interests.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-turkey-dogan-blackmail-erdogan-extradite-gulen-msnbc-rachel-maddow-a7471291.html
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    Before the referendum they were polling blind. Now they have a reference. You can't compare the two.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Russia will probably not act too hastily. Turkey is entitled to close the straits if it is at war or threatened by aggression.

    I expect that we will see economic rather than military measures.

    Putin is probably counting down the days till Trump is in charge of the US presidency I'd imagine.
    Turkey is too big for Russia to bully and in a geographically very awkward place for it. Russia will have to use some anger management techniques in calibrating its response.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Hat tip Guido

    "IMF chief Christine Lagarde has been convicted of negligence over a fraudulent €403 million payout to businessman Bernard Tapie in 2008, when she was France’s finance minister. Typical of the French justice system that she will face no punishment. Almost as criminal as the IMF’s forecasts"

    She can just walk away from this? Despite being convicted? Huh??
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Okay, so the poll shows (on the most pessimistic reading for Leave) no change on the actual result.
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    Sandpit said:

    Mrs Sandpit is watching Russian news, they are apparently reporting that the assassin policeman was not on duty. This seems to contradict the photographs from the scene - Russia trying to downplay it initially, waiting for the 'official' response from VP?

    According to the Guardian:

    Local media, citing security guards at the scene, said the killer showed a police ID to enter the gallery. The pro-government Yeni Şafak newspaper claimed he was in the Ankara riot police.

    If that is accurate, then he wasn't supposed to be on duty in the gallery.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.


    Before the referendum they were polling blind. Now they have a reference. You can't compare the two.

    But even looking at the figures before weighting is applied they find significantly more Brexiteers than they did pre-referendum.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic... Does anyone actually care about elected mayor's? Feels like police crime commissioners again... People jusr won't bother to turn up to vote.

    You can't live in London, then.
    I used to live in London... Always felt like a fairly meaningless popularity contest tbh... Mst people I knew had very little idea of what the story did anyway...
    The London mayor is not as powerful as he/she ought to be, but it's unthinkable now to be without one.

    Look at the cycling scheme. Other UK cities are now looking weird they don't have one - most global (Western) cities now do.

    A small example, but telling. The lack of decent devolved metro authority in this country means that our great cities operate with both hands tied behind their back.

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    .
    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    They have a C1 (admin/office worker) sample that voted 52-38 for Remain apparently.

    Very droll.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    edited December 2016

    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.
    This one is weighted to the actual result and shows real people have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. Downplay it all you like but the direction of travel is clear, despite months of Brexit means Brexit.

    Perhaps more significantly it shows a swing to Remain in Scotland off an already strong base.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    rpjs (I'd quote the thread, but, you know...) - I recognise that there're bits of Greater London who look outwards rather than inwards too - it's just a question of degree really, and I'd argue that the outer areas of the Metropolitan Counties have less in common with their central city than the outer areas of Greater London, and more distinct sub-foci, if using such a phrase doesn't make me sound too much like a knob. When I grew up, all my big town needs - shops, drinking, mainline railway stations, football - could be met by Stockport; I rarely went into Manchester. Though in those days Stockport was less run-down and Manchester was a fair bit rougher.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.
    As a Remainer, if the scarifying plunge in the pound / mini-constitutional crisis of July wasn't enough to change minds, I doubt much else will.

    We will perceive the effects of Brexit only in hindsight, as a lost growth path or a geopolitical "what if". Not the sort of thing likely to change minds in Leaverstan.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited December 2016

    Sandpit said:

    Mrs Sandpit is watching Russian news, they are apparently reporting that the assassin policeman was not on duty. This seems to contradict the photographs from the scene - Russia trying to downplay it initially, waiting for the 'official' response from VP?

    According to the Guardian:

    Local media, citing security guards at the scene, said the killer showed a police ID to enter the gallery. The pro-government Yeni Şafak newspaper claimed he was in the Ankara riot police.

    If that is accurate, then he wasn't supposed to be on duty in the gallery.
    Ah okay. That differs from the initial report that the killer was part of the security detail surrounding the Ambassador. It might just turn out to be a lone nutter with a gun and a badge, rather than something more sinister.

    Mrs Sandpit says that it's unusual (and not good news for Turkey) to see no immediate official response from the Russians, it means they're still talking about it. They don't spend a couple of hours talking if there're not planning something.

    If I were the Turkish Ambassador in Moscow I'd be heading for the airport right about now!
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2016

    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.
    This one is weighted to the actual result and shows real people have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. Downplay it all you like but the direction of travel is clear, despite months of Brexit means Brexit.
    It has the usual can't be arsed demographic telling pollsters exactly the same as they were telling them before the real poll. And then they didn't bother, because they really don't care. And they won't bother again, because that's the way they roll.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    I'm sure those who have been shafted by globalisation over the previous decades will be distraught that their provincial city doesn't have a cycling scheme.

    With this sort of guff, is it any wonder Remain lost? Politics has deserted the cause of thecommon man in favour of fringe interests.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.
    As a Remainer, if the scarifying plunge in the pound / mini-constitutional crisis of July wasn't enough to change minds, I doubt much else will.

    We will perceive the effects of Brexit only in hindsight, as a lost growth path or a geopolitical "what if". Not the sort of thing likely to change minds in Leaverstan.
    The curiosity will be how many years it takes before we rejoin the EU and how much worse our position will be as new members.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016

    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.
    This one is weighted to the actual result and shows real people have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. Downplay it all you like but the direction of travel is clear, despite months of Brexit means Brexit.

    Perhaps more significantly it shows a swing to Remain in Scotland off an already strong base.

    No, recall is weighted to the actual result. As we know time and time again in polling people tend to falsely recall voting for the winner.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Cookie said:

    rpjs (I'd quote the thread, but, you know...) - I recognise that there're bits of Greater London who look outwards rather than inwards too - it's just a question of degree really, and I'd argue that the outer areas of the Metropolitan Counties have less in common with their central city than the outer areas of Greater London, and more distinct sub-foci, if using such a phrase doesn't make me sound too much like a knob. When I grew up, all my big town needs - shops, drinking, mainline railway stations, football - could be met by Stockport; I rarely went into Manchester. Though in those days Stockport was less run-down and Manchester was a fair bit rougher.

    True. Most of our industrial cities have grown in clusters rather than as a singly-focused metro.

    Still, they operate as recognisable networked economic sub-regions, and need to be governed as such. They need metro-level economic strategy, transport and infrastructure planning.

    Wigan ain't ever going to compete with Stuttgart or Strasbourg. But Greater Manchester can and should.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Moses_ said:

    Hat tip Guido

    "IMF chief Christine Lagarde has been convicted of negligence over a fraudulent €403 million payout to businessman Bernard Tapie in 2008, when she was France’s finance minister. Typical of the French justice system that she will face no punishment. Almost as criminal as the IMF’s forecasts"

    She can just walk away from this? Despite being convicted? Huh??

    The same Bernard Tapie who fixed football matches in France. So it wasn't like she was taken in by someone without a known history of corruption.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @Mortimer -agree.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Mortimer said:

    I'm sure those who have been shafted by globalisation over the previous decades will be distraught that their provincial city doesn't have a cycling scheme.

    With this sort of guff, is it any wonder Remain lost? Politics has deserted the cause of thecommon man in favour of fringe interests.

    I used it as an example.

    You can travel from Manhattan to Madrid to Munich and you'll find a local cycling scheme.

    Managed by the city government to encourage the necessary migration for auto to cycle commuting.

    But you won't find it in Manchester. Why?

    Mortimer, as a rural antiquarian I wouldn't expect you to understand the challenges of living in and managing the growth of a world city. Your instinctive dismissal is a bit pathetic, though.
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    I'm sure those who have been shafted by globalisation over the previous decades will be distraught that their provincial city doesn't have a cycling scheme.
    With this sort of guff, is it any wonder Remain lost? Politics has deserted the cause of thecommon man in favour of fringe interests.

    There are two million regular adult cyclists in the UK. Ordinary people do it. And they do it in all parts of the country. Maybe many more would if they felt it was a safe option. Cycling is not the preserve of the sneering, unpatriotic, Remain-obsessed metropolitan elite.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    I must be reading a different Com Res poll. I can't discern any swing to Remain.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    I'm sure those who have been shafted by globalisation over the previous decades will be distraught that their provincial city doesn't have a cycling scheme.
    With this sort of guff, is it any wonder Remain lost? Politics has deserted the cause of thecommon man in favour of fringe interests.

    There are two million regular adult cyclists in the UK. Ordinary people do it. And they do it in all parts of the country. Maybe many more would if they felt it was a safe option. Cycling is not the preserve of the sneering, unpatriotic, Remain-obsessed metropolitan elite.

    It's also very cheap.
    And, espoused by that Brexiting deity, Norman Tebbit.

    I don't think Mortimer actually reads the books he sells. He seems to get his politics down the Dog and Duck.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Football Association prepare to take FIFA to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, after they ruled that the poppy is a 'political symbol' and fined all the home nations, £35k in England's case.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/12/19/fifa-fine-football-associations-england-scotland-northern-ireland/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    So far we have only 5 statutory instruments made for the forthcoming mayoral elections.

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/all?title=Mayor

    West Midlands
    Greater Sheffield
    Tees Valley
    Greater Liverpool
    Greater Manchester

    My presumption that these elections will be under SV by the application of s42 Local Government Act 2000

    Huzzah, I'll do a thread on the supplementary vote in the new year, as I know how much PBers love threads on voting systems
    Huzzah for AV-like threads!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Archduke Ferdinand
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Jonathan said:

    Archduke Ferdinand

    You're not the only one thinking that right now.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Government should be less concerned with cycling (and I say this as a regular cyclist) and more concerned with housing.

    This is not rocket science. The but...but...butting of the progressives on here explains why they're so often on the wrong side of results...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Archduke Ferdinand

    You're not the only one thinking that right now.
    Russia is already engaged in Syria though...
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Mortimer said:

    Government should be less concerned with cycling (and I say this as a regular cyclist) and more concerned with housing.

    This is not rocket science. The but...but...butting of the progressives on here explains why they're so often on the wrong side of results...

    Graceless backtracking.

    Of course housing is more important.
    But I cited cycling schemes as a very visible sign of metro mayors, and you responded with snide remarks about Remainers.

    Are you really so intent of making an enemy of your fellow countrymen?

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Disagreement does not make enemies.

    Did you want a safe space warning before I started questioning your pet projects?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,207
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Archduke Ferdinand

    You're not the only one thinking that right now.
    Russia is already engaged in Syria though...
    The interesting question will be whether the assassin was a lone wolf or linked to a wider group. And, indeed, whether we'll ever find this out. Far more convenient for both Russia and Turkey, I imagine, to go with the lone wolf theory.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ComRes poll shows Leave ahead by 47/45%, compared to their eve of poll giving Remain a 54/46% lead.

    A better comparison is the pre-weighting which was 47/42 in favour of Remain. But point stands.
    This one is weighted to the actual result and shows real people have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. Downplay it all you like but the direction of travel is clear, despite months of Brexit means Brexit.

    Perhaps more significantly it shows a swing to Remain in Scotland off an already strong base.
    Your earnest and desperate desire to believe the referendum result can and will be reversed by a few opinion polls is almost touching.
    The opinion polls won't reverse anything on their own but are a necessary condition.

    PS: Thanks for the recommendation about Hook in Camden. I took a non-Brit who thought it was the best fish and chips they'd tried.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Mortimer said:

    Disagreement does not make enemies.

    Did you want a safe space warning before I started questioning your pet projects?

    As I said, graceless backtracking.

    Your leap to classify me as a "but, but, butting" Remainer elitist is truly pathetic.

    I'd stick to the first edition Trollope, if I were you.
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    Perhaps more significantly it shows a swing to Remain in Scotland off an already strong base.

    Can't be right, some bloke's wife's brother said the Jocks were turning Brexit.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Anyone keeping track of the electoral college votes? What's the spread on faithless electors, I wonder.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969


    Perhaps more significantly it shows a swing to Remain in Scotland off an already strong base.

    Can't be right, some bloke's wife's brother said the Jocks were turning Brexit.
    Scottish Brexit Surge? :D
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Constantly amazed that those who keep calling election results wrong, or ending up on the losing side of them, won't take the friendly advice of those of us who seem to be more in tune winthe public.

    :-)

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Archduke Ferdinand

    You're not the only one thinking that right now.
    Tbf, everyone one who just read that comment is thinking Archduke Ferdinand!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of the electoral college votes? What's the spread on faithless electors, I wonder.

    Insufficient by the looks of things.

    All the states are now certified, and still Betfair drag their heels !
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Off topic, I have been sitting on tarmac at Heathrow for one hour now. No reason given.

    Iberia has rather fancy new planes, and you get to hear "Oh Blanca Navidad" in histrionic Spanish, but customer service seems a little lacking.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Entirely OT, but can thoroughly recommend 'No More Champagne' - new biography on Churchill based almost entirely on his finances. Highly revealing of his aptitude and weaknesses. And his absolutely tremendousl energy.

    Have devoured half of it on a trip up north!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of the electoral college votes? What's the spread on faithless electors, I wonder.

    Insufficient by the looks of things.

    All the states are now certified, and still Betfair drag their heels !
    Have there actually been any?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    Mortimer said:

    Constantly amazed that those who keep calling election results wrong, or ending up on the losing side of them, won't take the friendly advice of those of us who seem to be more in tune winthe public.

    :-)

    Apology accepted. :)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Off topic, I have been sitting on tarmac at Heathrow for one hour now. No reason given.

    Iberia has rather fancy new planes, and you get to hear "Oh Blanca Navidad" in histrionic Spanish, but customer service seems a little lacking.

    I hope the plane door is open, unless you on wifi of course ;)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    @Gardenwalker

    Oh dear re delay!

    I'm currently 'speeding' along from Preston on a 142 class!
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    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Archduke Ferdinand

    You're not the only one thinking that right now.
    Tbf, everyone one who just read that comment is thinking Archduke Ferdinand!
    I'm sure an ostrich was involved.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    RobD said:

    Off topic, I have been sitting on tarmac at Heathrow for one hour now. No reason given.

    Iberia has rather fancy new planes, and you get to hear "Oh Blanca Navidad" in histrionic Spanish, but customer service seems a little lacking.

    I hope the plane door is open, unless you on wifi of course ;)
    Heh.
    Perhaps my solitary Vodafone 4G signal is actually *stopping* the plane from going anywhere.
    Mortimer said:

    @Gardenwalker

    Oh dear re delay!

    I'm currently 'speeding' along from Preston on a 142 class!

    Clearly the route to Brexitland is swifter than my attempts to evacuate to Remainer del Sol!
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    I'm sure those who have been shafted by globalisation over the previous decades will be distraught that their provincial city doesn't have a cycling scheme.
    With this sort of guff, is it any wonder Remain lost? Politics has deserted the cause of thecommon man in favour of fringe interests.

    There are two million regular adult cyclists in the UK. Ordinary people do it. And they do it in all parts of the country. Maybe many more would if they felt it was a safe option. Cycling is not the preserve of the sneering, unpatriotic, Remain-obsessed metropolitan elite.

    Mortimer said:

    Government should be less concerned with cycling (and I say this as a regular cyclist) and more concerned with housing.

    This is not rocket science. The but...but...butting of the progressives on here explains why they're so often on the wrong side of results...

    If there was money to be made from building houses, the housebuilders would be building them. They know the market and they have the land and permissions. Next...
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Some kind of incident in berlin, truck ploughs into Christmas market.

    You hope its an accident, a tragic tragic accident. If it isnt, there will be more elsewhere.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    Mortimer said:

    Disagreement does not make enemies.

    Did you want a safe space warning before I started questioning your pet projects?

    Why not look in the mirror. As I see it nobody needs safe spaces more than the right, who can't deal with being exposed to any alternative reality.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    Off topic, I have been sitting on tarmac at Heathrow for one hour now. No reason given.

    Iberia has rather fancy new planes, and you get to hear "Oh Blanca Navidad" in histrionic Spanish, but customer service seems a little lacking.

    I hope the plane door is open, unless you on wifi of course ;)
    Heh.
    Perhaps my solitary Vodafone 4G signal is actually *stopping* the plane from going anywhere.
    They are just waiting for the police to come and detain you ;)
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    On topic (ish):

    Speculation on the Twitters that Edogan and Putin will chalk this up to a mutual enemy. Expect joint statement at tomorrow's Russia/Turkey/Iran summit.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    @Monksfield

    No-one needs safe spaces when it comes to discussion.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    I could get used to oop-North. Taxis are very reasonable.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited December 2016

    On topic (ish):

    Speculation on the Twitters that Edogan and Putin will chalk this up to a mutual enemy. Expect joint statement at tomorrow's Russia/Turkey/Iran summit.

    They're meeting tomorrow? I imagine that will be an interesting one, to say the least.

    Hopefully it gets chalked up, but no too difficult to see it going the other way either.

    As others have said, it will start with the tourism.

    Hope your flight goes off soon, Feliz Navidad!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,264

    I wouldn't expect you to understand the challenges of living in and managing the growth of a world city.

    That's hardly a problem likely to face Burnham, or Rotheram, or whatever nonetities they elect in Bristol, Cambridge and Newcastle though, is it?

    One of the significant problems of London's overwhelming dominance of politics and economics since the early twentieth century is that all our other cities, no matter what their size, are pipsqueaks by comparison. London is compared to New York as one of the world's most significant cities. Manchester's international significance is closer to Plymouth than to Milan or Frankfurt, the ones it should be compared to. For why? Because those are significant national economic powerhouses, headquarters of major private companies that dominate their countries' wealth creation while the capital is elsewhere. Manchester isn't because here London does both.

    It may be that these mayors are a step towards sorting it out, but somehow I doubt it and the dismally low quality of the candidates (one Labour hopeful in Bristol suggests he is suitable because he is a former chairman of the Junior Chamber of Commerce) isn't inducing me to change my mind.

    The obvious and straightforward solution, which would also be cheap and massively ease pressure on housing and services in London, is to move the capital elsewhere - Manchester would not, indeed, be a bad choice. It has ample water, power and room to expand, good transport links and all the other necessary infrastructure. Moreover, it's much more central.

    However, the odds of a politician making such a bold call are about the same as Hilary Clinton's chances of winning the electoral college. They are all too much in thrall to London and would rather tinker round the edges with this silly scheme than address the fundamental problem.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    edited December 2016
    Sandpit said:

    On topic (ish):

    Speculation on the Twitters that Edogan and Putin will chalk this up to a mutual enemy. Expect joint statement at tomorrow's Russia/Turkey/Iran summit.

    They're meeting tomorrow? I imagine that will be an interesting one, to say the least.

    Hopefully it gets chalked up, but no too difficult to see it going the other way either.

    As others have said, it will start with the tourism.

    Hope your flight goes off soon, Feliz Navidad!
    And with that, we start moving. Thank you!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Safe flight!
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    Witness reporting on CNN truck was deliberately driven into the crowd in Berlin similar to the Nice incident
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Witness reporting on CNN truck was deliberately driven into the crowd in Berlin similar to the Nice incident

    Hopefully it isn't as bad.... very worrying.
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    RobD said:

    Witness reporting on CNN truck was deliberately driven into the crowd in Berlin similar to the Nice incident

    Hopefully it isn't as bad.... very worrying.
    Sky reporting one fatality
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited December 2016

    Witness reporting on CNN truck was deliberately driven into the crowd in Berlin similar to the Nice incident

    Doesn't look good, hopefully the reported death toll of two is accurate and doesn't rise.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4049442/Terror-attack-fears-lorry-ploughs-Christmas-market-Berlin-leaving-two-people-dead.html
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    edited December 2016
    ydoethur said:

    I wouldn't expect you to understand the challenges of living in and managing the growth of a world city.

    One of the significant problems of London's overwhelming dominance of politics and economics since the early twentieth century is that all our other cities, no matter what their size, are pipsqueaks by comparison. London is compared to New York as one of the world's most significant cities. Manchester's international significance is closer to Plymouth than to Milan or Frankfurt, the ones it should be compared to. For why? Because those are significant national economic powerhouses, headquarters of major private companies that dominate their countries' wealth creation while the capital is elsewhere. Manchester isn't because here London does both.

    It may be that these mayors are a step towards sorting it out, but somehow I doubt it and the dismally low quality of the candidates (one Labour hopeful in Bristol suggests he is suitable because he is a former chairman of the Junior Chamber of Commerce) isn't inducing me to change my mind.

    The obvious and straightforward solution, which would also be cheap and massively ease pressure on housing and services in London, is to move the capital elsewhere - Manchester would not, indeed, be a bad choice. It has ample water, power and room to expand, good transport links and all the other necessary infrastructure. Moreover, it's much more central.
    Neither Frankfurt nor Milan are capitals, so I'm not sure your remedy works. And the growth rates of, say, Canberra and Ottawa, don't support your argument either.

    There's no silver bullet, since most of our regional cities are ex-rust belt. There are very few examples of ex-rust belt cities that have managed to reinvent themselves. Yet that is what they must do.

    As most of the population do not live in London and the SE, the failure of our second tier cities is a national problem. It's holding the whole economy back.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    Sky News:

    "Truck crashes into Christmas market in Berlin: Reports

    At least one person has been killed and there are reports of multiple injuries outside the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church."

    http://news.sky.com/story/truck-crashes-into-christmas-market-in-berlin-reports-10702656
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    Gardenwalker - I agree with your point about Wigan. On a bigger scale, I'd like to see the Northern Powerhouse - Liverpoll-Manchester-Leeds-Sheffield - compete with the Randstad and the Ruhr. We need better connectivity between our centres, and we need a better skilled workforce - but both of those are doable, within a generation. And we have the advantage of situation, of the English language, of four cities where young people want to live. Imagine - 10 million people, four cities all within half an hour of a major world airport, four top-notch universities (and around 8 second-tier ones), with a National Park slap bang in the middle of them, two more within an hour's drive, and a beautiful coastline. It can happen, a start has been made, and I believe it will. I don't know what role governance has to play (though the creation of Transport for the North is a positive). I just wish our prospective GM Mayor was rather more enthusiastic about the prospect. But all he appears to be ineterested in is 'taking on the Tories'.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    Sky: "several dead" in Berlin.
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    German Police deliberate attack - several died more than 50 injured
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,264

    ydoethur said:

    I wouldn't expect you to understand the challenges of living in and managing the growth of a world city.

    One of the significant problems of London's overwhelming dominance of politics and economics since the early twentieth century is that all our other cities, no matter what their size, are pipsqueaks by comparison. London is compared to New York as one of the world's most significant cities. Manchester's international significance is closer to Plymouth than to Milan or Frankfurt, the ones it should be compared to. For why? Because those are significant national economic powerhouses, headquarters of major private companies that dominate their countries' wealth creation while the capital is elsewhere. Manchester isn't because here London does both.

    It may be that these mayors are a step towards sorting it out, but somehow I doubt it and the dismally low quality of the candidates (one Labour hopeful in Bristol suggests he is suitable because he is a former chairman of the Junior Chamber of Commerce) isn't inducing me to change my mind.

    The obvious and straightforward solution, which would also be cheap and massively ease pressure on housing and services in London, is to move the capital elsewhere - Manchester would not, indeed, be a bad choice. It has ample water, power and room to expand, good transport links and all the other necessary infrastructure. Moreover, it's much more central.
    Neither Frankfurt nor Milan are capitals, so I'm not sure your remedy works. And the growth rates of, say, Canberra and Ottawa, don't support your argument either.
    Canberra and Ottawa are in federal countries. The machinery of government is much more widely dispersed than in the UK and has a correspondingly lower impact.

    I was pointing out that Frankfurt and Milan should be comparable to Manchester precisely because they are not capitals. But they are much more significant because our economic model is dominated by the SE, despite the fact it is actually not where most people live, as you note.

    However, there is not much likelihood of government persuading private companies to move - that doesn't stop it moving itself.

    Have a safe journey and a good holiday.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The Germans authorities are of the opinion it was a deliberate attack.

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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    RobD said:

    Off topic, I have been sitting on tarmac at Heathrow for one hour now. No reason given.

    Iberia has rather fancy new planes, and you get to hear "Oh Blanca Navidad" in histrionic Spanish, but customer service seems a little lacking.

    I hope the plane door is open, unless you on wifi of course ;)
    I guess you're a legacy airline passenger from that.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    matt said:



    RobD said:

    Off topic, I have been sitting on tarmac at Heathrow for one hour now. No reason given.

    Iberia has rather fancy new planes, and you get to hear "Oh Blanca Navidad" in histrionic Spanish, but customer service seems a little lacking.

    I hope the plane door is open, unless you on wifi of course ;)
    I guess you're a legacy airline passenger from that.
    Just a US airline passenger. FAA regs.
This discussion has been closed.