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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit’s negotiations

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    Plato, some Remainers and some Democrats seem unable to contemplate that they lost because their arguments were weak, or they had ceased to appeal to swing voters, or that certain parts of their programme were voter-repellent. It's much easier to believe that one lost because one's opponents are stupid/racist/deluded, or due to Russian intervention.
  • Welcome back, isam.

    May's strategy of having the leading Leavers inside the tent has very clear political advantages, and was probably the right decision to avoid constant sniping. Farage can't do the "not hard enough" line effectively on his own, since anyone even casually familiar with politics realises he'll never be satisfied. The snag, though, is that our negotiators are the B-team, especially Boris, who is now taken seriously by virtually nobody in either British or European politics. We'd get a better result if he were replaced by Gove, who is short of friends but has a coherent mind.

    Many here think that Europeans are as preoccupied by Brexit as we are, but passions are not runninng that high on the Continent - it's seen as an eccentric British decision but "hey, the Brits are eccentric, we'll have to live with it when we get round to it". Nobody hates us - the gamut of expression is from mild regret to mild irritation. It's not seen as an existential moment for the EU requiring maximum attention. If the Brits come up with a reasonable-looking package, there will be a show of hard bargsaining but it will be mostly accepted in the end. If we combine hardball attitudes (and Alastair is right about some of the rhetoric) with a maximalist package the EU will shrug and we'll end up with hard Brexit.

    I don't think the rights of expats to stay on either way will be a problem, though - that's going to be agreed early on once negotiations are under way as a simple act of common sense and decency. Nobody on either side is actually evil and the general will to get something sensible is there.

    Brexit may not be an existential threat to EU, but the French elections sure could be.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2016
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Germany is better at exports because (a) it has more medium sized companies that have to export to grow [it is notable that the Mittelstant do better in China than big German companies] and (b) its economy is more heavily weighted to engineering and industrial goods than the UK (we are focused on value added services and specialist engineering).

    Emerging markets are at a stage of development where they need German products more than British products right now.
    It's also the case that EU expansion has pushed Germany to the physical centre of European Union, and equally it moves the UK and Ireland further to the periphery.

    Some of it is purely a matter of a convenient geographical location.

  • @another_richard - isn't an eu immigrant in the UK spending his/her money here and possibly also buying property? Why is that not helping the UK economy?

    A retired British person in Spain is moving money from the British economy to the Spanish economy.

    A working Polish person in Britain might remit money back to Poland which removes it from the British economy.

    Of course many economic migrants to Britain will be net beneficiaries to the British economy but on the other hand most British emigrants will be either high skilled workers or retirees spending their money.

    So while foreign countries get the benefit of 'high quality' British emigrants many (most?) of the immigrants into Britain will be net recipients.

    I would also guess that British emigrants create far fewer social and criminal problems than those some immigrants to Britain do.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    chestnut said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Germany is better at exports because (a) it has more medium sized companies that have to export to grow [it is notable that the Mittelstant do better in China than big German companies] and (b) its economy is more heavily weighted to engineering and industrial goods than the UK (we are focused on value added services and specialist engineering).

    Emerging markets are at a stage of development where they need German products more than British products right now.
    It's also the case that EU expansion has pushed Germany to the physical centre of European Union, and equally it moves the UK and Ireland further to the periphery.

    Some of it is purely a matter of a convenient geographical location.

    Which is a pretty strong argument for not adding a further political reason for UK to be pushed to the periphery.

  • The claim was not that [the EU] 'stops' us trading with the other 93% but that it inhibits that trade. It puts up barriers over which we have no control and so limits our ability to trade freely. That is undeniable.

    The second thing doesn't follow from the first. It's true that the EU puts up barriers to trade and its rules don't allow the UK to remove them. However it only inhibits trade if the UK would otherwise actually, when able to chose, put up fewer barriers. Whether it will do that remains to be seen.

    The problem with making trade deals in practice is that aspects of them that the other side want tend to annoy some politically influential constituency. In the local press this gets played as domestic workers getting screwed by foreign competitors, so to make trade deals the government have to be prepared to stand up to hostile media headlines. So far there's no evidence that future UK governments will be better at resisting this kind of pressure than the EU; If anything it looks like an independent UK will be more protectionist than the EU.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    @glw - completely agree. That's why voter suppression and gerrymandering is such a worry in the US. Not sure how you can ever have equality of vote in an FPTP system.

    Even if you don't like FPTP you surely would agree that you could make it worse by having unequal votes. It is genuinely mind boggling that people say such stuff without their brain kicking in and shutting their mouth before it is too late.
  • chestnut said:

    @another_richard - isn't an eu immigrant in the UK spending his/her money here and possibly also buying property? Why is that not helping the UK economy?

    That's where an immigration filter becomes necessary.

    You really do not have to go very far in London to find someone who has arrived in the UK who is doing 16 hours unskilled work and receiving tens of thousands per annum in cash from the state as well as free access to maternity, nursery and education services.

    We grow enough of our own citizens with these characteristics; importing more is neither necessary or desirable.

    Merkel's comments about reinterpreting the meaning of FoM point towards a UK/EU accord on this point at least.
    I doubt you have to go far anywhere in Britain to find someone like that.

    I do wonder if those 'Euromart' shops that have sprung up and which have catchment areas of about 100 yards are front organisations for the 16 hours benefit scam.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    chestnut said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Germany is better at exports because (a) it has more medium sized companies that have to export to grow [it is notable that the Mittelstant do better in China than big German companies] and (b) its economy is more heavily weighted to engineering and industrial goods than the UK (we are focused on value added services and specialist engineering).

    Emerging markets are at a stage of development where they need German products more than British products right now.
    It's also the case that EU expansion has pushed Germany to the physical centre of European Union, and equally it moves the UK and Ireland further to the periphery.

    Some of it is purely a matter of a convenient geographical location.

    That hasn't stopped Ireland being an export powerhouse
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2016

    Which is a pretty strong argument for not adding a further political reason for UK to be pushed to the periphery.

    That's true, though alternatively we should be looking in the other direction.

    I am intrigued to see what happens to Ireland once we go. I was reading something the other day about the UK as Ireland's logistical corridor to the EU;the state it's goods need to physically pass through. The gist wasn't favourable if trade barriers go up.


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Yes, but you need to understand that your long-term interest is driven by having a stable and functional society. Cramming wages for the mass of residents down so that you can get your car washed for £1 cheaper isn't conducive to this.
  • @glw - we do have unequal votes under FPTP. One in a marginal seat is far more significant and valuable than one in a safe seat. You only have to follow the money to see that. In the US, inequality of vote is enshrined in the system itself. The Democrats have won all but one of the popular votes for the presidency since 1988, but the rules dictate that doesn't matter.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Top clickbait Mr Meeks.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    Sean_F said:

    Plato, some Remainers and some Democrats seem unable to contemplate that they lost because their arguments were weak, or they had ceased to appeal to swing voters, or that certain parts of their programme were voter-repellent. It's much easier to believe that one lost because one's opponents are stupid/racist/deluded, or due to Russian intervention.

    They also want to have it both ways; before the election the DNC leaks were inconsequential tittle-tattle, afterwards the Russians have "stolen" the election for Trump. Before the election foreign states accessing Clinton's private email was "not a big deal as there wasn't that much classified information", afterwards foreign states reading the less serious email from the DNC leak is a "threat to national security".

    And the irony of the CIA complaining about interference with elections is hilarious.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Germany is better at exports because (a) it has more medium sized companies that have to export to grow [it is notable that the Mittelstant do better in China than big German companies] and (b) its economy is more heavily weighted to engineering and industrial goods than the UK (we are focused on value added services and specialist engineering).

    Emerging markets are at a stage of development where they need German products more than British products right now.
    It's also the case that EU expansion has pushed Germany to the physical centre of European Union, and equally it moves the UK and Ireland further to the periphery.

    Some of it is purely a matter of a convenient geographical location.

    That hasn't stopped Ireland being an export powerhouse
    Where do the majority of their goods go?

  • @EiT - the UK will have to reduce current barriers to get trade deals. The more pertinent issue is whether those we do deals with will have to reciprocate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    The claim was not that [the EU] 'stops' us trading with the other 93% but that it inhibits that trade. It puts up barriers over which we have no control and so limits our ability to trade freely. That is undeniable.

    The second thing doesn't follow from the first. It's true that the EU puts up barriers to trade and its rules don't allow the UK to remove them. However it only inhibits trade if the UK would otherwise actually, when able to chose, put up fewer barriers. Whether it will do that remains to be seen.

    The problem with making trade deals in practice is that aspects of them that the other side want tend to annoy some politically influential constituency. In the local press this gets played as domestic workers getting screwed by foreign competitors, so to make trade deals the government have to be prepared to stand up to hostile media headlines. So far there's no evidence that future UK governments will be better at resisting this kind of pressure than the EU; If anything it looks like an independent UK will be more protectionist than the EU.
    The issue is that trade deals that benefit the EU as a whole aren't necessarily in the UK's interest.

    For instance - and I've asked this question 4 times but no one has ever responded - why was it in the UK's interest for the EU to agree a Mercosur deal which opened our beef producers to competition from Argentina so that Italian/German engineers could sell their products to Brazil?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Even for Meeks, that thread header is a steaming turd,
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    On the car wash issue we have one in Hurstpierpoint on the forecourt of what used to be the petrol station. It employs nine young men from, I am fairly sure, Albania. Depending on the size of the car they charge between £7 and £15, and they do a cracking job.

    With that number of employees and the number of cars they process per hour (Hurst is not a busy metropolis) they cannot be paying the minimum wage, and I doubt they have heard of National Insurance contributions, and all the other tiresome and expensive costs on businesses that most have to put up with. Whoever is behind the business is almost certainly breaking several laws as well as exploiting the employees to a degree that a Victorian mill owner would be ashamed of (all nine of the lads live in a two bedroomed flat above the old garage).

    So yes, we get our cars washed better and cheaper but only by colluding with a business that is at the very least operating in the dark grey economy. I am not sure that is healthy in the long run.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Having just returned from the rather bizarre city of Marrakesh and then reading this thread it's clear I've entered a parallel universe. It's understandable that we should believe we are the centre of the universe and for our self confidence it's probably not a bad thing. But it isn't reality.

    The first blow to my confidence was that the '£' wasn't a currency that everyone wanted. In fact it wasn't a currency that anyone wanted! The bastards wanted Euros! Those with £'s had to change them for the soft and unexchangable Dirham

    It's a very cosmopolitan city in the sense that it's visitors come from all parts of the globe. It's ambiance is as close to the film 'Casablanca' as I've seen and that includes Casablanca itself. I talked to many interesting Europeans. Some who had made Marrakesh their home. I was marginally interested in their views on Brexit but it really made no sense. It was like asking Judy Dench whether the boy playing Joseph in the nativity play was a wise choice.

    The rest of Europe couldn't care less. We are full of outdated delusions. We were once the centre of a great empire and latterly a leading player in another. We are now dribbling our way into irrelevant isolation and typically are the only ones who can't see it.
  • MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Please do not misquote - this seems to be a habit now amongst Remainers.

    The claim was not that it 'stops' us trading with the other 93% but that it inhibits that trade. It puts up barriers over which we have no control and so limits our ability to trade freely. That is undeniable.
    Well I haven't noticed any trade barrier set up by the EU that stops me trading outside the EU. Which ones did you have in mind?
    According to the House of Commons Library from 2013 around 90% of all goods entering the EU from the rest of the world are subject to tariffs. That is before you start to look at non tariff barriers. This results in reciprocal tariffs on goods going to the rest of the world from the EU. Again, it doesn't stop trade but it makes it more expensive and acts as an inhibitor.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Ozzie high commissioner notes that their immigration policy is non - discriminatory whereas that of the EU is. Well said.
  • rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    The carwash machine didn't get benefits or use public services or need housing or was owned by dubious people.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    @glw - we do have unequal votes under FPTP. One in a marginal seat is far more significant and valuable than one in a safe seat. You only have to follow the money to see that. In the US, inequality of vote is enshrined in the system itself. The Democrats have won all but one of the popular votes for the presidency since 1988, but the rules dictate that doesn't matter.

    Perhaps Clinton's campaign should have tried to win the vote that does matter, rather than piling up votes in states that were highly likely to vote for her come what may. To complain about this when your party is the incumbent, you have the most money to spend, you know how the system works, and your opponent can barely open his mouth without putting his foot in it, dose smell of sour grapes rather than a serious reflection on the rights and wrongs of how a President is elected.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    @chestnut, there was a survey of recent EU arrivals, and less than a quarter said they expected to stay here permanently, with about a third saying they were here for two years or less.

    Which is why, post Brexit, I would expect that net immigration to the UK will turn negative.

    The intention and the reality of migration are two different things. My paternal grandparents came to Britain for a couple of years in the 1930's, so as to be able to go back to their country with money and new skills. They stayed 60 years and were burtied here.

    That is a very typical migration story.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Yes, but you need to understand that your long-term interest is driven by having a stable and functional society. Cramming wages for the mass of residents down so that you can get your car washed for £1 cheaper isn't conducive to this.
    Sure: my point is solely that if the machines were offering a better value experience, they'd be winning.
  • @another_richard - have you not heard of the Costa del Crime? British expats spend some of their money where they live and keep some at home. They also use plenty of services. The reality is that we do not know - or that we seek to rubbish academic studies indicating eu immigration is a net positive for the UK economy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    For instance - and I've asked this question 4 times but no one has ever responded - why was it in the UK's interest for the EU to agree a Mercosur deal which opened our beef producers to competition from Argentina so that Italian/German engineers could sell their products to Brazil?

    A more interesting question is why Liam Fox is working on replicating such deals instead of replacing them
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    Great site this and I am glad to be unbanned, but one of its biggest downsides is that nobody ever accepts they are wrong.

    So many posts are written that would be fair enough.... if we hadn't had a referendum and Leave hadn't won. This brexit denial is toe curlingly excruciating, a la Monty Hall.

    Isn't the whole point of the Monty Hall problem that it is often wise to change your mind after making a decision?
    Post of the day!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,568

    MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Please do not misquote - this seems to be a habit now amongst Remainers.

    The claim was not that it 'stops' us trading with the other 93% but that it inhibits that trade. It puts up barriers over which we have no control and so limits our ability to trade freely. That is undeniable.
    I am happy to replace "stops" with "impedes", but the broader point is that in my view the concept that "we have no control" and that our ability to trade freely is so curtailed - is highly partial and misses the bigger picture.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2016

    isam said:

    Great site this and I am glad to be unbanned, but one of its biggest downsides is that nobody ever accepts they are wrong.

    So many posts are written that would be fair enough.... if we hadn't had a referendum and Leave hadn't won. This brexit denial is toe curlingly excruciating, a la Monty Hall.

    Isn't the whole point of the Monty Hall problem that it is often wise to change your mind after making a decision?
    Getting it wrong and refusing to acknowledge it is the problem yes

  • The claim was not that [the EU] 'stops' us trading with the other 93% but that it inhibits that trade. It puts up barriers over which we have no control and so limits our ability to trade freely. That is undeniable.

    The second thing doesn't follow from the first. It's true that the EU puts up barriers to trade and its rules don't allow the UK to remove them. However it only inhibits trade if the UK would otherwise actually, when able to chose, put up fewer barriers. Whether it will do that remains to be seen.

    The problem with making trade deals in practice is that aspects of them that the other side want tend to annoy some politically influential constituency. In the local press this gets played as domestic workers getting screwed by foreign competitors, so to make trade deals the government have to be prepared to stand up to hostile media headlines. So far there's no evidence that future UK governments will be better at resisting this kind of pressure than the EU; If anything it looks like an independent UK will be more protectionist than the EU.
    Sorry but this is just a weird argument.

    I don't mind you shooting me in the leg because if you didn't I would still have the ability to do so if I chose.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    The carwash machine didn't get benefits or use public services or need housing or was owned by dubious people.
    Yes there are costs other than those borne (or not) by the business itself.
  • @glw - who's complaining? The system is the system. But it's a system in which votes are unequal, something you said you thought it was vital to avoid.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    Southam Observer, there's nothing inherent in the Electoral College that disadvantages the Democrats, though. In 2012, Obama was able to win a handsome majority, with a relatively modest lead in votes. Clinton lost because she repelled voters in swing States, while piling up votes in California.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    glw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Quite. Nothing has astonished and revolted me more to witness than the anti-democratic traits here and in the USA.

    What's concerning is that these anti-democratic views are apparently sincere, not just a provocative thing said in anger by the losing side. I find that much more worrying than anything about Brexit itself, or the potential of President Trump. Universal suffrage and the equality of votes are fundamental parts of our democracy, not something to be tampered with.
    I feel it's about half and half. 50% are opportunistically using any means available to deliberately thwart a decision that doesn't suit their personal circumstances. The other half have a dangerous superiority complex, where they sincerely believe they have a right to tell everyone else what to do.

    They'd be aristocrats with no self-awareness losing their heads in revolutionary France. The other ones would be hoarding loot and hope to get away with it.

    The antics in the USA right now have been most instructive - look at the tactics

    - whipped up rioting against democracy post 8th Nov
    - concerted efforts to de-legitimise non MSM voices on social media/no platform
    - recounts, that ironically just showed Trumper worries about Democrat fraud in places like Detroit
    - intimidation of EC members
    - fake news re Trumpers attacking Muslims
    - IT'S THE RUSSIANS

    And before the election, we'd the paid DNC agitators pretending to be Trumpers starting fights, DNC chair giving HRC debate questions et al, collusion with MSM en masse.

    My trust in the whole lot is rock bottom. It's the behaviour of banana republics - but now it seems like the liberal left will do anything to maintain their grip on power. That they're still failing to win despite it all speaks volumes. Thankfully.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Polish plumbers give excellent cost effective service, and for every annoyed British plumber tbere are 200 happy customers.
  • @Sean_F - I agree. But it does make votes in the US unequal. That was my point.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @Charles - hmmm. Sorry, but entrenched wealth is establishment wealth. Your set may not be as influential as you once were, but as your posts make clear (what was it you were implying about Keir Starmer's unsuitability for office the other day?) you and your family move in the circles where control of the state resides.

    The establishment is the people who form and surround the government, including the government, the civil service, the media, etc.

    We don't. We just know some of them on an individual level. My mother happened to know Starmer because she was elected as the representative of the council of chairs for the magistrates nationwide when he was DPP. It's a 3 year post, after which she has gone back to being a local JP.
    Charles's attempts to deny he is part of the establishment is true comedy. Possible comic highlight of the year.
    I have a job, a turn up in the office and work from 8 until 7.30 every day. I get paid a wage, and report to a boss who is generous enough to give me some freedom of action. I'm certainly fortunate, but not that different from anyone else who works for a living.
    Stop it. I'll have a hernia.
    Jeez just how high up is our Charlie? Not the 3rd surely? :)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited December 2016
    chestnut said:

    Which is a pretty strong argument for not adding a further political reason for UK to be pushed to the periphery.

    That's true, though alternatively we should be looking in the other direction.

    I am intrigued to see what happens to Ireland once we go. I was reading something the other day about the UK as Ireland's logistical corridor to the EU;the state it's goods need to physically pass through. The gist wasn't favourable if trade barriers go up.


    I am actually involved in just such a supply chain. Creative stuff done in Dublin. I do the technical and regulatory stuff in a nice home counties market town. Low value raw materials imported from Korea and US. Final package put together by WWC manual workers in seaside town on the south coast. Shipped across the EU from fulfilment company in the Midlands.

    I happen to know a lot of the workers in the seaside town and demographically they are typical Brexit vote material. It is easy to see that they are the weakest bit of the chain and that the biggest risk to their jobs is the imposition of tariffs.

    For any Dan Hannan fans out there, this small business is one of the 96% of British SMEs that don't trade with Europe - a statistic he seems to suggest means that for most of them EU membership is irrelevant. All the invoices are paid by companies located in the UK. But nonetheless their business is entirely dependent on decisions made in Brussels.

    I have no idea whether they will survive, thrive or take a dive. I do know that voting leave is a bit like playing Russian roulette.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    @glw - who's complaining? The system is the system. But it's a system in which votes are unequal, something you said you thought it was vital to avoid.

    I think you are being pedantic, there is a differential value to a vote in a count in all but a straight binary choice, nobody denies that, but at least we start with individual votes having the same value. Not discounted by age, or God knows what else if such a stupid idea was put into practice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    Dr Fox, but beware the Polish builder who claims to be an electrician.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Polish plumbers give excellent cost effective service, and for every annoyed British plumber tbere are 200 happy customers.
    Whilst I agree with you and am certainly not making any argument against migration at all, it is worth pointing out that the Polish plumber 'problem' actually materialised in a different form to that which people claimed. Just as RCS has been saying highly skilled workmen came to the UK and provided excellent service at a reduced cost. The problem is that they then went home. Having pushed out the old service providers they then left a gap in the market which has proved very difficult to fill in the short term. What we actually need to do is find a way to persuade these skilled migrants that they can stay and make a life in Britain rather than making their money and then going back to Poland or wherever else they come from.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    PlatoSaid said:

    - intimidation of EC members

    This is apparently becoming quite serious, I read about one state providing police protection for their members.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,568
    PlatoSaid said:

    glw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Quite. Nothing has astonished and revolted me more to witness than the anti-democratic traits here and in the USA.

    What's concerning is that these anti-democratic views are apparently sincere, not just a provocative thing said in anger by the losing side. I find that much more worrying than anything about Brexit itself, or the potential of President Trump. Universal suffrage and the equality of votes are fundamental parts of our democracy, not something to be tampered with.
    I feel it's about half and half. 50% are opportunistically using any means available to deliberately thwart a decision that doesn't suit their personal circumstances. The other half have a dangerous superiority complex, where they sincerely believe they have a right to tell everyone else what to do.

    They'd be aristocrats with no self-awareness losing their heads in revolutionary France. The other ones would be hoarding loot and hope to get away with it.

    The antics in the USA right now have been most instructive - look at the tactics

    - whipped up rioting against democracy post 8th Nov
    - concerted efforts to de-legitimise non MSM voices on social media/no platform
    - recounts, that ironically just showed Trumper worries about Democrat fraud in places like Detroit
    - intimidation of EC members
    - fake news re Trumpers attacking Muslims
    - IT'S THE RUSSIANS

    And before the election, we'd the paid DNC agitators pretending to be Trumpers starting fights, DNC chair giving HRC debate questions et al, collusion with MSM en masse.

    My trust in the whole lot is rock bottom. It's the behaviour of banana republics - but now it seems like the liberal left will do anything to maintain their grip on power. That they're still failing to win despite it all speaks volumes. Thankfully.
    There's only one candidate who claims he would have won the popular vote but for illegal voting.

    But you're happy to handwave that away.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    @MaxPB - most Brits living in other EU member states are not highly-skilled. They're highly-retired; net beneficiaries, not net recipients. If we send back the non-skilled, we'll be welcoming home many of them too.

    A British person who has retired abroad will be someone who is spending their pensions and savings in their country of retirement and may well have also invested in property in that country.

    They are thus benefitting the economy of their country of retirement.
    Correct - that is me and most of my friends. I pay taxes both here and in the UK and have very good private healthcare. I will not be returning to the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    @HurstLlama

    Indeed, a very large part of the UK's problem is it's unwillingness to do anything about the black market. If the Albanians (who are not allowed to work in the UK without permits as far as I'm aware anyway) were paying tax and NI, I very much doubt it'd be economic for them to be here.

    That being said, the issue is not restricted to EU nationals. When we were hiring a cleaner about five years ago, paying £11/hour, Brits were suddenly uninterested when we explained that we were doing it above board, and paying NI and the like.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    Sean_F said:

    Southam Observer, there's nothing inherent in the Electoral College that disadvantages the Democrats, though. In 2012, Obama was able to win a handsome majority, with a relatively modest lead in votes. Clinton lost because she repelled voters in swing States, while piling up votes in California.

    Clinton is reported to be blaming Russia and Comey.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919

    MaxPB said:



    Compromise would be fine, but it is a complete overriding of British interests in too many cases. Juncker was just the latest on a huge list if British failures in the EU.

    This one of those irreconcilables.
    I draw a different conclusion.

    See also the trade discussion last night in which the claim is that the EU containing 7% stops us from growing our trade with the 93%. No matter how many times we Remainers cite Germany and indicate that the challenges are actually with U.K. education and industrial strategy...we cannot agree.
    Please do not misquote - this seems to be a habit now amongst Remainers.

    The claim was not that it 'stops' us trading with the other 93% but that it inhibits that trade. It puts up barriers over which we have no control and so limits our ability to trade freely. That is undeniable.
    Well I haven't noticed any trade barrier set up by the EU that stops me trading outside the EU. Which ones did you have in mind?
    According to the House of Commons Library from 2013 around 90% of all goods entering the EU from the rest of the world are subject to tariffs. That is before you start to look at non tariff barriers. This results in reciprocal tariffs on goods going to the rest of the world from the EU. Again, it doesn't stop trade but it makes it more expensive and acts as an inhibitor.
    90% seems high when you consider that virtually no commodities* are subject to tariffs.

    * And the EU countries are big importers of oil, gas, copper,etc.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    edited December 2016
    @glw - not being pedantic, I misunderstood you. I agree that a vote should be a vote and that all adults should have one. Age or whether you pay income tax should not matter. I think the overwhelming majority of people of all political persuasions would feel the same.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    Plato,

    I'd add that they'd come to believe their own propaganda. They thought that demographic change was propelling them to inevitable victory. They didn't need to appeal to blue collar White voters, because they they were a dying breed, and they didn't like them anyway. So, they lost all kinds of States where Democrats were competitive until very recently.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    @chestnut - British expats in the eu are getting all those services for free too. The problem with tax credits, to the extent it exists, is a domestic policy problem, not an eu one.

    Ahem. No. Some may do but most don't. And the range of benefits available here in Spain is way less than in the UK
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Lol @ Catherine West Labour MP for Hornsey: "£4 is a coffee and croissant for most people".
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    Plato, some Remainers and some Democrats seem unable to contemplate that they lost because their arguments were weak, or they had ceased to appeal to swing voters, or that certain parts of their programme were voter-repellent. It's much easier to believe that one lost because one's opponents are stupid/racist/deluded, or due to Russian intervention.

    They also want to have it both ways; before the election the DNC leaks were inconsequential tittle-tattle, afterwards the Russians have "stolen" the election for Trump. Before the election foreign states accessing Clinton's private email was "not a big deal as there wasn't that much classified information", afterwards foreign states reading the less serious email from the DNC leak is a "threat to national security".

    And the irony of the CIA complaining about interference with elections is hilarious.

    I found this all particularly amusing since the Podesta/DNC leak emails contain one about trying to rig the Israeli election IIRC.

    TBH, anyone trying to use the process hack angle is only worth ignoring. And that's before they try blaming the Russians. Podesta emailed his own User Name and Password to a shed load of people. It's what they wrote to each other - not some daft crack hacking squad in a bunker.

    Some people on PB claimed to have seen Cyrillic edits to Wikileaks - I never did and read thousands of them. Nor seen evidence of such. With content like this - why sex it up? It was highly entertaining as was. And I've never seen the DNC or Podesta actually say they were wrong either, just oodles of bluster/Look Russkies!!!

    It's laughable.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Polish plumbers give excellent cost effective service, and for every annoyed British plumber tbere are 200 happy customers.
    'A' can be replaced by a cheaper worker either overseas or immigrant - 'A' is unhappy but 'B' to 'Z' are happy.

    'B' can be replaced by a cheaper worker either overseas or immigrant - 'B' is unhappy but 'C' to 'Z' are happy.

    'C' can be replaced by a cheaper worker either overseas or immigrant - 'C' is unhappy but 'D' to 'Z' are happy.

    Now unless there are alternative jobs which pay as well for 'A' etc the ultimate endgame is that 'Z' is very happy and everyone else isn't.

    And with that a very good day to everyone.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    rcs1000 said:

    @HurstLlama

    Indeed, a very large part of the UK's problem is it's unwillingness to do anything about the black market. If the Albanians (who are not allowed to work in the UK without permits as far as I'm aware anyway) were paying tax and NI, I very much doubt it'd be economic for them to be here.

    That's a good point, there is no point in having new rules on immigration and employment if we don't enforce them. Dodgy businesses should not be able to leave it to the wider society to pick up the costs they shrug off.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2016
    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    Southam Observer, there's nothing inherent in the Electoral College that disadvantages the Democrats, though. In 2012, Obama was able to win a handsome majority, with a relatively modest lead in votes. Clinton lost because she repelled voters in swing States, while piling up votes in California.

    Clinton is reported to be blaming Russia and Comey.
    According to Ed Klein, Clinton spent the evening of her defeat, locked in her hotel room screaming about Comey and Obama being responsible. – As Klein summarised it, Clinton blamed everyone but herself.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAd4OUfiKvo
  • Sorry but this is just a weird argument.

    I don't mind you shooting me in the leg because if you didn't I would still have the ability to do so if I chose.

    It's not that you would have the ability to do it, it's that you're actually going to do it, and then shoot off the other one as well. In this situation you may make a reasonable argument that the ability to make decisions about your own legs is valuable in its own right, but you shouldn't say that leaving my protective custody and promptly blowing both your own legs off will protect your ability to walk.
  • @another_richard - have you not heard of the Costa del Crime? British expats spend some of their money where they live and keep some at home. They also use plenty of services. The reality is that we do not know - or that we seek to rubbish academic studies indicating eu immigration is a net positive for the UK economy.

    You're showing your age Southam - the 'Costa del Crime' was an issue from 30+ years ago.

    The 'Costa del Crime' was successful career criminals from Britain who had moved to Spain to avoid justice and spend their ill-gotten gain in Spain.

    They had done their criminal activities in Britain not Spain.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    IanB2 said:

    Lol @ Catherine West Labour MP for Hornsey: "£4 is a coffee and croissant for most people".

    Wow!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    @IanB2 - and I'm sure that the coffee of choice would be a latte.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919

    rcs1000 said:

    @chestnut, there was a survey of recent EU arrivals, and less than a quarter said they expected to stay here permanently, with about a third saying they were here for two years or less.

    Which is why, post Brexit, I would expect that net immigration to the UK will turn negative.

    The intention and the reality of migration are two different things. My paternal grandparents came to Britain for a couple of years in the 1930's, so as to be able to go back to their country with money and new skills. They stayed 60 years and were burtied here.

    That is a very typical migration story.
    Nevertheless, hundreds of thousands of EU citizens return to their country of origin every year. To date, the numbers arriving have exceeded those leaving. I expect that will change post Brexit.
  • Sorry but this is just a weird argument.

    I don't mind you shooting me in the leg because if you didn't I would still have the ability to do so if I chose.

    It's not that you would have the ability to do it, it's that you're actually going to do it, and then shoot off the other one as well. In this situation you may make a reasonable argument that the ability to make decisions about your own legs is valuable in its own right, but you shouldn't say that leaving my protective custody and promptly blowing both your own legs off will protect your ability to walk.
    No. What we actually have is a situation where the act is already being done - we are continually being shot in the legs as far as trade goes. The question is then whether or not we would stop doing so if it were our own choice.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    Plato,

    I'd add that they'd come to believe their own propaganda. They thought that demographic change was propelling them to inevitable victory. They didn't need to appeal to blue collar White voters, because they they were a dying breed, and they didn't like them anyway. So, they lost all kinds of States where Democrats were competitive until very recently.

    Yup - it's the T Blair Let Them All In - They'll Vote For Us franchise. HRC wanted mass amnesties. California is beyond GOP for decades now. That hasn't happened by accident, nor the no-ID voting laws in many places.

    It's all so bent as to be shocking. Another aspect of this POTUS election has been to expose so many issues - I sincerely hope the states do something about it. It's riddled with wrongness.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012
    Sean_F said:

    They didn't need to appeal to blue collar White voters, because they they were a dying breed, and they didn't like them anyway. So, they lost all kinds of States where Democrats were competitive until very recently.

    It says something bad about the Democrat party if they no longer felt they needed the support of "blue collar White voters". I suppose this is what happens when identity replaces class or economics, you are no longer the "party of the working class" but a different beast altogether.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    @HurstLlama

    Indeed, a very large part of the UK's problem is it's unwillingness to do anything about the black market. If the Albanians (who are not allowed to work in the UK without permits as far as I'm aware anyway) were paying tax and NI, I very much doubt it'd be economic for them to be here.

    That being said, the issue is not restricted to EU nationals. When we were hiring a cleaner about five years ago, paying £11/hour, Brits were suddenly uninterested when we explained that we were doing it above board, and paying NI and the like.

    The problem is that there are numbers of people whose labour is not worth the minimum wage. If the cost of Labour goes up, I may very likely not employ anyone and use my own bucket and sponge!

    Mechanical carwashes are an abomination, they miss bits and scratch bits.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    IanB2 said:

    Lol @ Catherine West Labour MP for Hornsey: "£4 is a coffee and croissant for most people".

    When seriously on my uppers a few years back - that was 4 loaves of white Tesco value bread, a packet of value ham slices and a shedload of weird looking vegetables/packet of Bisto.

    I do wonder what world some of these 'voices of the people' reside in.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @another_richard - have you not heard of the Costa del Crime? British expats spend some of their money where they live and keep some at home. They also use plenty of services. The reality is that we do not know - or that we seek to rubbish academic studies indicating eu immigration is a net positive for the UK economy.

    You're showing your age Southam - the 'Costa del Crime' was an issue from 30+ years ago.

    The 'Costa del Crime' was successful career criminals from Britain who had moved to Spain to avoid justice and spend their ill-gotten gain in Spain.

    They had done their criminal activities in Britain not Spain.
    The Costa del Crime is now in Dubai.
  • No. What we actually have is a situation where the act is already being done - we are continually being shot in the legs as far as trade goes. The question is then whether or not we would stop doing so if it were our own choice.

    That's exactly the right question to ask. Will an independent Britain shoot both its own legs off, where the EU would only have shot off one? And as I said up-thread the answer, on currently available evidence, is yes. Expanding free trade requires a government prepared to stand up to vested interests and newspapers accusing it of selling its workers out to foreigners, and Britain doesn't have one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Polish plumbers give excellent cost effective service, and for every annoyed British plumber tbere are 200 happy customers.
    Isn't that a lazy stereotype?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited December 2016
    "Let them eat cake drink coffee and eat croissants"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    By the way, Pakistan 372/7 chasing 489 in the test match vs Australia...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919

    rcs1000 said:

    @HurstLlama

    Indeed, a very large part of the UK's problem is it's unwillingness to do anything about the black market. If the Albanians (who are not allowed to work in the UK without permits as far as I'm aware anyway) were paying tax and NI, I very much doubt it'd be economic for them to be here.

    That being said, the issue is not restricted to EU nationals. When we were hiring a cleaner about five years ago, paying £11/hour, Brits were suddenly uninterested when we explained that we were doing it above board, and paying NI and the like.

    The problem is that there are numbers of people whose labour is not worth the minimum wage. If the cost of Labour goes up, I may very likely not employ anyone and use my own bucket and sponge!

    Mechanical carwashes are an abomination, they miss bits and scratch bits.
    There are indeed a large number of people whose labour is not worth the minimum wage. And the longer they spend outside the workforce, the worse that problem becomes.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    "Let them eat cake drink coffee and eat croissants"

    And it has to be Fair Trade too I expect.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    Plato/glw, just think of the mainly White blue collar States that Bill Clinton carried and where Hillary crashed and burned; Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. All of them States where Democrats have won Statewide contests in recent times, and all of them in danger of moving out of reach.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited December 2016
    glw said:

    "Let them eat cake drink coffee and eat croissants"

    And it has to be Fair Trade too I expect.
    Fair Trade soya latte and vegan crossiant...and not paid with by a £5 note.
  • @Felix - so not an eu issue.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    £4 for a cup of cat excrement.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,012

    glw said:

    "Let them eat cake drink coffee and eat croissants"

    And it has to be Fair Trade too I expect.
    Fair Trade soya latte and vegan crossiant...and not paid with by a £5 note.
    Sounds ghastly, I'd rather have a strong cup of tea from a roadside van and a bacon butty.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    By the way, Pakistan 372/7 chasing 489 in the test match vs Australia...

    D'oh! Lost a wicket in the last over :(
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    The Democrats' biggest source of wasted votes per ECV was DC at ~ 90,000 votes per ECV, MA at ~ 88k and California at ~ 77.6k.

    The republicans' was Oklahoma at 75.5k, Texas was the most efficient non swing GOP state outside of Alaska (15k) at ~ 21k.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    @glw - you clearly are not part of the Islington Labour Lovvidom target demographic.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited December 2016
    Still no quote function on the main PB website.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited December 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @another_richard,

    The problem being that our cars are now better washed for less money?

    But with lower capital formation and lower productivity...
    So what? The point is that my experience as a consumer is improved.

    As Mrs Thatcher said "people keep talking to me about producers, I do wish they would talk more about consumers"
    Polish plumbers give excellent cost effective service, and for every annoyed British plumber tbere are 200 happy customers.
    Isn't that a lazy stereotype?
    Yes.

    I know someone who owns a Pimlico Plumbers type business and that stereotype is bollocks. They are sceptical as to how much of an impact European migration has had on British plumbers. Well certainly in the high end market the impact has been minimal. Carpenters on the other hand have seen massive wage suppression.

    The meme that Polish plumbers = high quality and British plumbers = rubbish is not only highly offensive but also complete crap.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @glw

    "Sounds ghastly, I'd rather have a strong cup of tea from a roadside van and a bacon butty."

    Me too. Next Tuesday I am going to the big Marks and Spencers which will give me an opportunity to stop at my favourite roadside van. It is run by an ex-squaddie and provides proper army-standard tea (hot, strong, two sugars and condensed milk) and a proper bacon sandwich (white bread and brown sauce) all for £2.75. A rare treat.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    Charles said:

    The issue is that trade deals that benefit the EU as a whole aren't necessarily in the UK's interest.

    For instance - and I've asked this question 4 times but no one has ever responded - why was it in the UK's interest for the EU to agree a Mercosur deal which opened our beef producers to competition from Argentina so that Italian/German engineers could sell their products to Brazil?

    It's in the UK consumer's interests to have a wide choice of suppliers of different types.

    More fundamentally, the existence of pastoral farming within the M25 while we also have a chronic undersupply of new housing shows evidence of a systemic failure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    @isam Don't want to do my nuts backing another mediocre cricket team playing in away conditions :p

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    @Edmund "Expanding free trade requires a government prepared to stand up to vested interests and newspapers accusing it of selling its workers out to foreigners, and Britain doesn't have one."

    This is hardly true. Whilst paying lip-service to the Little Englanders, recent governments have in fact carried on regardless, allowing movement to be as free as they can possibly get away with.

    Most Tories live in a convenient bubble where they can enjoy the benefits of immigration for their businesses and their services whilst still being able to live in largely monocultural idylls. The xenophobia, like gardening and arranging the flowers in church, is just a hobby.
  • My 23-year old Leave-voting nephew has almost completed his training as an electrician. He's now earning £14 an hour working next to plenty of EU migrants. My 19 year-old Remain-voting daughter is on £5.70 an hour selling shoes in House of Fraser in Leamington, with scarcely an EU immigrant in sight. It's complicated.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited December 2016

    "Let them eat cake drink coffee and eat croissants"

    Am I right in thinking cake=brioche?

    Not my cup of tea, my greyhounds loved brioche buns though. I did notice the one loaf I bought out of curiosity didn't go mouldy despite being opened several days. I can see why that'd appeal.

    Tesco used to sell oatmeal flour fresh loaves that didn't go dry or green for days - yummy too. Then they discontinued them. Ho hum.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @MP_SE

    "The meme that Polish plumbers = high quality and British plumbers = rubbish is not only highly offensive but also complete crap."

    One of my nephews runs a plumbing business in London and seems to make a good living, quite a lot of which comes from sorting out the cock-ups made by unqualified, so-called plumbers, who have done a cheap but botched job.

    I am sure there are wonderful Polish plumbers who know what they are doing, have been properly trained, whose work complies with all relevant standards and who carry indemnity insurance. I bet there are damn few of them who work on the cheap though.
  • No. What we actually have is a situation where the act is already being done - we are continually being shot in the legs as far as trade goes. The question is then whether or not we would stop doing so if it were our own choice.

    That's exactly the right question to ask. Will an independent Britain shoot both its own legs off, where the EU would only have shot off one? And as I said up-thread the answer, on currently available evidence, is yes. Expanding free trade requires a government prepared to stand up to vested interests and newspapers accusing it of selling its workers out to foreigners, and Britain doesn't have one.
    The point being that at the moment the choice of whether we are crippled lies with someone else with no means of us preventing it. I would advocate that any situation where we make - and more importantly can unmake - that decision ourselves has to be better. Of course I clearly don't share your poor view of the UK population to make the right choice nor of its governments to lead. I certainly trust both a lot more than the EU whose decisions may well have nothing to do with our welfare at all.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    @Felix - so not an eu issue.

    True.
  • Some PB posters might be interested in joining the new GAB site:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/dec/18/gab-the-social-network-for-the-alt-right
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906

    The point being that at the moment the choice of whether we are crippled lies with someone else with no means of us preventing it. I would advocate that any situation where we make - and more importantly can unmake - that decision ourselves has to be better. Of course I clearly don't share your poor view of the UK population to make the right choice nor of its governments to lead. I certainly trust both a lot more than the EU whose decisions may well have nothing to do with our welfare at all.

    I can think of a great example to test our ability to unmake a decision that has nothing to do with our welfare...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    A minor quirk of Brexit that will eventually affect me is whether English remains an official EU language. When Ireland joined, they noted that it already was, so to make nationalist voters happy, I understand that they declared their language to be Gaelic. Consequently, all important documents are translated into English for us and into Gaelic for Ireland. When Britain withdraws, there will be no EU countries claiming English as their native language, yet it's the second language for the great majority of businesses and politicians, and Irish politicians especially will I suspect not all really welcome having to read everything in Gaelic...
  • The point being that at the moment the choice of whether we are crippled lies with someone else with no means of us preventing it. I would advocate that any situation where we make - and more importantly can unmake - that decision ourselves has to be better. Of course I clearly don't share your poor view of the UK population to make the right choice nor of its governments to lead. I certainly trust both a lot more than the EU whose decisions may well have nothing to do with our welfare at all.

    I can think of a great example to test our ability to unmake a decision that has nothing to do with our welfare...
    Of course you can. That is because you are so fanatically pro EU that you fail to see the harm that EU membership has done to our country. I am afraid you are beyond reason.
  • A minor quirk of Brexit that will eventually affect me is whether English remains an official EU language. When Ireland joined, they noted that it already was, so to make nationalist voters happy, I understand that they declared their language to be Gaelic. Consequently, all important documents are translated into English for us and into Gaelic for Ireland. When Britain withdraws, there will be no EU countries claiming English as their native language, yet it's the second language for the great majority of businesses and politicians, and Irish politicians especially will I suspect not all really welcome having to read everything in Gaelic...

    I would suggest that if they did make such a decision - and they would be absolutely right to do so under their rules - they would very much be damaging the EU unless they were to push ahead with a genuine lingua franca such as French or German. The lack of a common language is one of the things that greatly inhibits the EU and its ability to become a genuine unified state.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    .

    The point being that at the moment the choice of whether we are crippled lies with someone else with no means of us preventing it. I would advocate that any situation where we make - and more importantly can unmake - that decision ourselves has to be better. Of course I clearly don't share your poor view of the UK population to make the right choice nor of its governments to lead. I certainly trust both a lot more than the EU whose decisions may well have nothing to do with our welfare at all.

    I can think of a great example to test our ability to unmake a decision that has nothing to do with our welfare...
    Mr Glenn, I dimly recall you outlining your support for the EU and Trump a while ago - can you do so again? It's a rarity on PB - possibly unique amongst regular posters, and very useful to understand.
This discussion has been closed.