politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit’s negotiations

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit’s negotiations

How should Britain approach the farewell negotiations with the rest of the EU? David Davis indirectly confirmed that the Government has yet to reach an agreed line when he told Hillary Benn in Parliament on 14 December that the Government’s plan would only be published when it was ready.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

Pulpstar

http://www.hamiltonelectors.com/

#NeverTrump last stand !

rcs1000

Sigh. I write some insightful and interesting comments... And curse of the new thread.

foxinsoxuk

Is this a reasonable measure of the value added to exports?

https://data.oecd.org/trade/domestic-value-added-in-gross-exports.htm

If so, where does the Rotterdam effect sit? The Nertherlands seems tonadd more value to exports than we do.

ydoethur

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low, for two reasons:

1) The EU is still, it seems, in a state of shock, denial and paralysis over the vote, having genuinely convinced themselves (as most of us did) that Britain wouldn't vote to leave. It is also in a state of fear that if Britain, which was on the whole doing OK out of the EU, can vote to leave, what might happen in Greece, Portugal or Italy, who are being screwed to snapping point by the EU. They are therefore anxious that if and when talks start (and at the moment they are using every trick in the book to try and stop that, including the simplest one of refusing to talk to British representatives) Britain gets heavily punished as a vivid warning to the others.

2) Personnel. Even when he's sober - and he usually isn't - Juncker is still barely able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Michel Barnier is a minor French politician who even in a talent shortage couldn't rise beyond Minister for Agriculture (apart from a brief, unhappy and undistinguished period as the Foreign Minister). He has no experience of negotiation, no intellectual heft and is a politician who believes firmly in elitism rather than democracy. Neither are going to make any effort at negotiations, and even if by some miracle they try, they are not going to have the least ability to get the deal through the Council and Parliament.

Whatever the government say or indeed don't say, in effect a vote for out at this time was a vote for a nasty divorce, with grave economic consequences for us and probably for Europe as a whole. Unless Merkel finds a backbone from somewhere and has Juncker locked up in a drying out home, the bureaucracy told to get a life and Barnier reduced to his proper status, maybe maire of a village in the Dordogne, we're stuck.

CarlottaVance

One of the dark amusements of the last year has been the mismatch between Leavers’ image of themselves and the image that the outside world has of them.

Mr Meeks really ought to widen his horizons beyond Europe:

When questioned on ‘overall attractiveness’, [of the UK] 36 per cent of people in EU countries said Brexit had a negative impact - compared to 17 per cent who said positive.

However, in Commonwealth nations 33 per cent saw Brexit as having a positive impact compared to 20 per cent who had negative.

In the rest of the G20 (Argentina, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey and the USA), 35 per cent had a positive take on Brexit and 17 per cent negative.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-uk-reputation-eu-commonwealth_uk_58517127e4b00f3fd28c541f

So yes, our EU friends don't like BREXIT, but the wider world views it much more positively.....

OldKingCole

Events, dear boy, events. The position has been further complicated by the result of the US election. On one hand both ourselves and the EU are trying to sort out the Leave process and on the other both they and ourselves are starting to come to terms wiuth the shake-up in the world order which is the result of Trump’s election.

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low, for two reasons:

1) The EU is still, it seems, in a state of shock, denial and paralysis over the vote, having genuinely convinced themselves (as most of us did) that Britain wouldn't vote to leave. It is also in a state of fear that if Britain, which was on the whole doing OK out of the EU, can vote to leave, what might happen in Greece, Portugal or Italy, who are being screwed to snapping point by the EU. They are therefore anxious that if and when talks start (and at the moment they are using every trick in the book to try and stop that, including the simplest one of refusing to talk to British representatives) Britain gets heavily punished as a vivid warning to the others.

2) Personnel. Even when he's sober - and he usually isn't - Juncker is still barely able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Michel Barnier is a minor French politician who even in a talent shortage couldn't rise beyond Minister for Agriculture (apart from a brief, unhappy and undistinguished period as the Foreign Minister). He has no experience of negotiation, no intellectual heft and is a politician who believes firmly in elitism rather than democracy. Neither are going to make any effort at negotiations, and even if by some miracle they try, they are not going to have the least ability to get the deal through the Council and Parliament.

Whatever the government say or indeed don't say, in effect a vote for out at this time was a vote for a nasty divorce, with grave economic consequences for us and probably for Europe as a whole. Unless Merkel finds a backbone from somewhere and has Juncker locked up in a drying out home, the bureaucracy told to get a life and Barnier reduced to his proper status, maybe maire of a village in the Dordogne, we're stuck.

Surely 1) is because of us? Until we give notice under A50 there can be no negotiations.

2) The EU is rather averse to strong leaders, having seen where that gets to, and actively opts for figureheads who go with the consesnsus rather than try to persuade. I think that Juncker is fine for that.

Soft Brexit is a fiction. It is not our decision, it is not on offer, and it probably wouldn't be acceptable to an electorate of Tories and kippers here either. Hard Brexit is the destination, the talks will just be about process.

CD13

Yes, Mr Meeks, how dare the UK make its own decisions without enough reference to intelligent people like you?

You may accept the decision, but you have yet to come to terms with it.

The EU would prefer we left on their terms, but even more, they'd much rather we left quickly. While we stay, we contaminate the brand and encourager les autres. If an unamicable divorce it is, the reason is the EU. They can see their world collapsing around them, a view you may share.

We've broken out, we don't need to appease the jailers in case we return. As always, economics will trump anger. And the EU Governments will make the big calls - two of the most important of whom may well be very different next year.

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

Surely 1) is because of us? Until we give notice under A50 there can be no negotiations.

2) The EU is rather averse to strong leaders, having seen where that gets to, and actively opts for figureheads who go with the consesnsus rather than try to persuade. I think that Juncker is fine for that.

Soft Brexit is a fiction. It is not our decision, it is not on offer, and it probably wouldn't be acceptable to an electorate of Tories and kippers here either. Hard Brexit is the destination, the talks will just be about process.

Not having negotiations is one thing. Refusing to allow the PM to attend meetings of heads of government is quite another.

Juncker is not going with consensus, though, is he? He's doing what he believes is right, with the unfortunate consequence that his judgment is so poor everything is going horribly wrong (and I'm not just thinking about Brexit).

The key point is that your last paragraph is correct because of the attitude of Europe, not at all helped by the attitude of the UK government. It did not have to be this way, but because of their mutual intransigence and incompetence that is where we are in practice headed.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

ydoethur said:

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low, for two reasons:

1) The EU is still, it seems, in a state of shock, denial and paralysis over the vote, having genuinely convinced themselves (as most of us did) that Britain wouldn't vote to leave. It is also in a state of fear that if Britain, which was on the whole doing OK out of the EU, can vote to leave, what might happen in Greece, Portugal or Italy, who are being screwed to snapping point by the EU. They are therefore anxious that if and when talks start (and at the moment they are using every trick in the book to try and stop that, including the simplest one of refusing to talk to British representatives) Britain gets heavily punished as a vivid warning to the others.

2) Personnel. Even when he's sober - and he usually isn't - Juncker is still barely able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Michel Barnier is a minor French politician who even in a talent shortage couldn't rise beyond Minister for Agriculture (apart from a brief, unhappy and undistinguished period as the Foreign Minister). He has no experience of negotiation, no intellectual heft and is a politician who believes firmly in elitism rather than democracy. Neither are going to make any effort at negotiations, and even if by some miracle they try, they are not going to have the least ability to get the deal through the Council and Parliament.

Whatever the government say or indeed don't say, in effect a vote for out at this time was a vote for a nasty divorce, with grave economic consequences for us and probably for Europe as a whole. Unless Merkel finds a backbone from somewhere and has Juncker locked up in a drying out home, the bureaucracy told to get a life and Barnier reduced to his proper status, maybe maire of a village in the Dordogne, we're stuck.

The EU is rather averse to strong leaders......

Hard Brexit is the destination, the talks will just be about process.

Jaques Delors?

We've already been told that "Soft Brexit" = "Remain"

SimonStClare

Don’t often see Godwin’s Law in the header...

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I agree that the name and shame line briefly taken regarding foreign workers was bloody ridiculous.

However, the notion the EU would do us some sort of special favour if we were 'outward-looking' and super nice and warm towards them is a nonsense. Blair couldn't've been more pro-EU. The only reason he didn't try and get us in the single currency is because Brown didn't want it.

And what did Blair achieve? He threw away half the rebate in return for no reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.

There's a double standard here. People are bleating about May not guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK whilst raising not a murmur about the millions of British citizens in the EU.

There's a reason Machiavelli's The Prince doesn't have a chapter on the importance of being nice.

Freggles

CarlottaVance said:

One of the dark amusements of the last year has been the mismatch between Leavers’ image of themselves and the image that the outside world has of them.

Mr Meeks really ought to widen his horizons beyond Europe:

When questioned on ‘overall attractiveness’, [of the UK] 36 per cent of people in EU countries said Brexit had a negative impact - compared to 17 per cent who said positive.

However, in Commonwealth nations 33 per cent saw Brexit as having a positive impact compared to 20 per cent who had negative.

In the rest of the G20 (Argentina, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey and the USA), 35 per cent had a positive take on Brexit and 17 per cent negative.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-uk-reputation-eu-commonwealth_uk_58517127e4b00f3fd28c541f

So yes, our EU friends don't like BREXIT, but the wider world views it much more positively.....

Or, they are happy to see the EU self destructing and see Brexit in that light. My competitor is busy navel gazing? Excellent Smithers!

Monksfield

ydoethur said:

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low, for two reasons:

1) The EU is still, it seems, in a state of shock, denial and paralysis over the vote, having genuinely convinced themselves (as most of us did) that Britain wouldn't vote to leave. It is also in a state of fear that if Britain, which was on the whole doing OK out of the EU, can vote to leave, what might happen in Greece, Portugal or Italy, who are being screwed to snapping point by the EU. They are therefore anxious that if and when talks start (and at the moment they are using every trick in the book to try and stop that, including the simplest one of refusing to talk to British representatives) Britain gets heavily punished as a vivid warning to the others.

2) Personnel. Even when he's sober - and he usually isn't - Juncker is still barely able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Michel Barnier is a minor French politician who even in a talent shortage couldn't rise beyond Minister for Agriculture (apart from a brief, unhappy and undistinguished period as the Foreign Minister). He has no experience of negotiation, no intellectual heft and is a politician who believes firmly in elitism rather than democracy. Neither are going to make any effort at negotiations, and even if by some miracle they try, they are not going to have the least ability to get the deal through the Council and Parliament.

Whatever the government say or indeed don't say, in effect a vote for out at this time was a vote for a nasty divorce, with grave economic consequences for us and probably for Europe as a whole. Unless Merkel finds a backbone from somewhere and has Juncker locked up in a drying out home, the bureaucracy told to get a life and Barnier reduced to his proper status, maybe maire of a village in the Dordogne, we're stuck.

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low whilst third rate Tory politicians saw the pathway to arranging it as puffing their chests out and striding around their tiny dungheap japing about prosecco, cake and trade deals with the Empire. It's like the kind of avian mating ritual David Attenborough covers.

We're dealing with grown up people and we're sending clowns to do the negotiation. The cake we're all going to have and eat will turn out to be a shit sandwich.

But hey, maybe it'll eventually dawn on people who to blame.

CD13

Mr Monksfield,

"We're dealing with grown up people and we're sending clowns to do the negotiation. The cake we're all going to have and eat will turn out to be a shit sandwich."

As Mr Dancer mentioned, do you really think that sending a Tony Blair clone to the EU would have earned us instant gratitude? "Please, please, sir, please let us repay £50 billion immediately, send you regular payments and kiss your arse daily."

Their reply would have been ... "Yes, but be quick about it."

They are the ones on the back foot. The French and German government are due to change soon, and the whole edifice is wobbling. Their response is that of a trapped rat. No surprise there, but it has already ingested the anti-coagulant.

felix

The problem with the above is it is completely one-sided which is odd given that the EU reaction was hostility and rudeness from day 1. The inability to see this as complementary to some of the mistakes made on the government side really weakens the thread fatally. Until you stop being so virulently anti- British its very hard to take anything you write seriously. I hated the result but love my country. Time to move on.

CarlottaVance

Freggles said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of the dark amusements of the last year has been the mismatch between Leavers’ image of themselves and the image that the outside world has of them.

Mr Meeks really ought to widen his horizons beyond Europe:

When questioned on ‘overall attractiveness’, [of the UK] 36 per cent of people in EU countries said Brexit had a negative impact - compared to 17 per cent who said positive.

However, in Commonwealth nations 33 per cent saw Brexit as having a positive impact compared to 20 per cent who had negative.

In the rest of the G20 (Argentina, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey and the USA), 35 per cent had a positive take on Brexit and 17 per cent negative.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-uk-reputation-eu-commonwealth_uk_58517127e4b00f3fd28c541f

So yes, our EU friends don't like BREXIT, but the wider world views it much more positively.....

Or, they are happy to see the EU self destructing and see Brexit in that light. My competitor is busy navel gazing? Excellent Smithers!

I think the peoples of the Commonwealth and G20 may not take as misanthropic a view as you think they do.....

PlatoSaid

SimonStClare said:

Don’t often see Godwin’s Law in the header...

felix

Monksfield said:

ydoethur said:

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low, for two reasons:

1) The EU is still, it seems, in a state of shock, denial and paralysis over the vote, having genuinely convinced themselves (as most of us did) that Britain wouldn't vote to leave. It is also in a state of fear that if Britain, which was on the whole doing OK out of the EU, can vote to leave, what might happen in Greece, Portugal or Italy, who are being screwed to snapping point by the EU. They are therefore anxious that if and when talks start (and at the moment they are using every trick in the book to try and stop that, including the simplest one of refusing to talk to British representatives) Britain gets heavily punished as a vivid warning to the others.

2) Personnel. Even when he's sober - and he usually isn't - Juncker is still barely able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Michel Barnier is a minor French politician who even in a talent shortage couldn't rise beyond Minister for Agriculture (apart from a brief, unhappy and undistinguished period as the Foreign Minister). He has no experience of negotiation, no intellectual heft and is a politician who believes firmly in elitism rather than democracy. Neither are going to make any effort at negotiations, and even if by some miracle they try, they are not going to have the least ability to get the deal through the Council and Parliament.

Whatever the government say or indeed don't say, in effect a vote for out at this time was a vote for a nasty divorce, with grave economic consequences for us and probably for Europe as a whole. Unless Merkel finds a backbone from somewhere and has Juncker locked up in a drying out home, the bureaucracy told to get a life and Barnier reduced to his proper status, maybe maire of a village in the Dordogne, we're stuck.

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low whilst third rate Tory politicians saw the pathway to arranging it as puffing their chests out and striding around their tiny dungheap japing about prosecco, cake and trade deals with the Empire. It's like the kind of avian mating ritual David Attenborough covers.

We're dealing with grown up people and we're sending clowns to do the negotiation. The cake we're all going to have and eat will turn out to be a shit sandwich.

But hey, maybe it'll eventually dawn on people who to blame.
</blockquote

I think there may be clowns on both sides of the table here.

Mortimer

The response of the most fervent Remoaners to the result is, for me, one of the more unedifying occurrences this year. And they still wonder why they lost?

CarlottaVance

Morris_Dancer said:

There's a double standard here. People are bleating about May not guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK whilst raising not a murmur about the millions of British citizens in the EU.

There's a reason Machiavelli's The Prince doesn't have a chapter on the importance of being nice.

Look at all the criticism May gets for not conceding unilaterally- then compare it with the silence that met Merkel's refusal to even discuss it.

CarlottaVance

felix said:

Monksfield said:

ydoethur said:

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low, for two reasons:

1) The EU is still, it seems, in a state of shock, denial and paralysis over the vote, having genuinely convinced themselves (as most of us did) that Britain wouldn't vote to leave. It is also in a state of fear that if Britain, which was on the whole doing OK out of the EU, can vote to leave, what might happen in Greece, Portugal or Italy, who are being screwed to snapping point by the EU. They are therefore anxious that if and when talks start (and at the moment they are using every trick in the book to try and stop that, including the simplest one of refusing to talk to British representatives) Britain gets heavily punished as a vivid warning to the others.

2) Personnel. Even when he's sober - and he usually isn't - Juncker is still barely able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Michel Barnier is a minor French politician who even in a talent shortage couldn't rise beyond Minister for Agriculture (apart from a brief, unhappy and undistinguished period as the Foreign Minister). He has no experience of negotiation, no intellectual heft and is a politician who believes firmly in elitism rather than democracy. Neither are going to make any effort at negotiations, and even if by some miracle they try, they are not going to have the least ability to get the deal through the Council and Parliament.

Whatever the government say or indeed don't say, in effect a vote for out at this time was a vote for a nasty divorce, with grave economic consequences for us and probably for Europe as a whole. Unless Merkel finds a backbone from somewhere and has Juncker locked up in a drying out home, the bureaucracy told to get a life and Barnier reduced to his proper status, maybe maire of a village in the Dordogne, we're stuck.

The chances of any sort of constructive deal were always low whilst third rate Tory politicians saw the pathway to arranging it as puffing their chests out and striding around their tiny dungheap japing about prosecco, cake and trade deals with the Empire. It's like the kind of avian mating ritual David Attenborough covers.

We're dealing with grown up people and we're sending clowns to do the negotiation. The cake we're all going to have and eat will turn out to be a shit sandwich.

But hey, maybe it'll eventually dawn on people who to blame.

I think there may be clowns on both sides of the table here.

A cretin, on theirs - according to the French.....

PlatoSaid

Mortimer said:

The response of the most fervent Remoaners to the result is, for me, one of the more unedifying occurrences this year. And they still wonder why they lost?

And it's six months on... I don't mind anyone feeling the result wasn't right for their circumstances, it's the insulting sneering that wearies me. They're not helping themselves at all.

Scott_P

CD13 said:

As always, economics will trump anger.

As it did on 23rd June. Oh, wait...

This enduring fiction from the Brexiteers may be the last scale to fall from their eyes.

CarlottaVance

SimonStClare said:

Don’t often see Godwin’s Law in the header...

Oh for the like button......

YellowSubmarine

Leavers are angry, for their lies will return to haunt them

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/brexit-leavers-fear-their-lies-will-haunt-them?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Mortimer

@PlatoSaid

But the liberal establishment gave us:

The Euro
Iraq
The Euro crisis
2008
Decades of stagnating median incomes


They must be scratching their heads this December morning and thinking 'why don't the people like us'?

chestnut

CarlottaVance said:

Morris_Dancer said:

There's a double standard here. People are bleating about May not guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK whilst raising not a murmur about the millions of British citizens in the EU.

There's a reason Machiavelli's The Prince doesn't have a chapter on the importance of being nice.

Look at all the criticism May gets for not conceding unilaterally- then compare it with the silence that met Merkel's refusal to even discuss it.

It is only a matter of time before the point is made that europeans in the UK should be lobbying Juncker, Barnier, Merkel, Hollande - not May.

ydoethur

Monksfield said:

We're dealing with grown up people and we're sending clowns to do the negotiation.

Okaaay...so a man who turns up drunk to key meetings and gives the Nazi salute to his employers is a grownup.

It's a point of view I suppose...

Mortimer

@ydoethur

But but but European liberals are nowt but a force for good, right? Questioning them is being a Tory toady. Patriotism, the notion of negotiation and common sense have gone out of the window.

However their words, actions and postures seems to suggest otherwise

YellowSubmarine

Themes of 2016: technology puts millions of jobs in jeopardy

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/themes-of-2016-digital-revolution-technology-employment?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

CarlottaVance

YellowSubmarine said:

Leavers are angry, for their lies will return to haunt them

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/brexit-leavers-fear-their-lies-will-haunt-them?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Does "Weimar culture" count as Godwin too? Two in one morning from Remain......

felix

chestnut said:

CarlottaVance said:

Morris_Dancer said:

There's a double standard here. People are bleating about May not guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK whilst raising not a murmur about the millions of British citizens in the EU.

There's a reason Machiavelli's The Prince doesn't have a chapter on the importance of being nice.

Look at all the criticism May gets for not conceding unilaterally- then compare it with the silence that met Merkel's refusal to even discuss it.

It is only a matter of time before the point is made that europeans in the UK should be lobbying Juncker, Barnier, Merkel, Hollande - not May.

As a British immigrant in Spain I want the UK government to look after the interests of its citizens first, wherever they live. I expect other EU governments o take the same approach.

chestnut

YellowSubmarine said:

Leavers are angry, for their lies will return to haunt them

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/brexit-leavers-fear-their-lies-will-haunt-them?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

It is one of Brexit's great blessings that the Guardian's journalists have been released from the Austerity Article Factory Farm where they have been caged and held captive since May 2010, even if it is only to get them to factory farm articles on Brexit instead.

Scott_P

George Osborne has a big interview in The Times, and is on Marr this morning.

Lining up his "I told you so" campaign?

YellowSubmarine

A half-in, half-out deal with the EU might best serve 50/50 Britain

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/half-in-half-out-deal-with-eu-best-serve-50-50-britain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

PlatoSaid

CarlottaVance said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Leavers are angry, for their lies will return to haunt them

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/brexit-leavers-fear-their-lies-will-haunt-them?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Does "Weimar culture" count as Godwin too? Two in one morning from Remain......

I've seen more references to Godwin on here than watching the Yesterday channel during the same time.

YellowSubmarine

@CarlottaVance It's very, very early days yet Carlotta but my view that Brexit is metastasising remains. We will of course see in due course.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, if he is, he's mistiming it.

Negotiations haven't started yet. If he influences them then anything short of perfection can be blamed on his naysaying/meddling. Osborne needs to stand back and let what's going to happen, happen. If it goes wrong he can say he opposed it, if it goes right, he can say he acknowledges that and still has a lot of experience to bring to the table.

Charles

Bollocks Alastair. Utter bollocks. You are projecting the fact that you despise your fellow countrymen and assuming that others think the same as you.

The vast majority of citizens of this country - regardless of race, religion, or national origin - want the same thing: to be able to live out their lives, as they wish, without government interference; to raise a family should they want without worrying about whether they can feed the kids at the end of the day; to know that if they have a catastrophic problem society will be there to support them. Immigration was for them about low wage competition - sure you can look at aggregate national statistics but that ignores the reality of life for many people.

The EU understands that freedom of movement is a totemic issue for the government. That's why those that are opposed to a deal are emphasising it as a inalienable right (which has only existed for 20 years or so). Others emphasis it as a way to increase the price they hope to extract - it's all standard negotiating tactics.

But there is a deal to be done - you can see this in the £50bn ask (I am fairly sure that it was £60bn when it was first mooted). There is also the wiggle room in that they have included the next 3 years contributions in the figure. And the EU will continue to have a workable, friendly relationship with the UK. Because that's what countries with common interests do.

madasafish

I see Mr Meeks is still having problems adapting to the new reality.

Just recycling his last article on the subject - except this is more bitter:-)

Charles

rcs1000 said:

Sigh. I write some insightful and interesting comments... And curse of the new thread.

Although given where Monsanto is going you are proposing we swap European hegemony for German...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Charles, I'm confused: do you like the article or not?

F1: not much new, though if you backed Bottas at good odds for the seat, there's 1.4 to hedge on Betfair. Personally, I think he's a very strong favourite to get it, and rather regret missing that boat.

If he does, however, 26 each way for the title (whilst taking a while) may still come off.

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

Is this a reasonable measure of the value added to exports?

https://data.oecd.org/trade/domestic-value-added-in-gross-exports.htm

If so, where does the Rotterdam effect sit? The Nertherlands seems tonadd more value to exports than we do.

I'd imagine (not a trade expert) that there is a lot of transfer pricing and "brand royalty" income in the Dutch figures due to legacy Dutch mixers.

ydoethur

Mortimer said:

@ydoethur

But but but European liberals are nowt but a force for good, right? Questioning them is being a Tory toady. Patriotism, the notion of negotiation and common sense have gone out of the window.

However their words, actions and postures seems to suggest otherwise

What's even more puzzling to me about such statements (I know you were being sarcastic) is that when I look at his record with a cold eye I wouldn't say Juncker was a liberal. Economically I'd put him nearer Trump than Hammond, and that may be being harsh to Trump.

As for his pan-EU expansionism and ruthless hammering of non-Europeans via his trade arrangements...

isam

All this talk of 'Quislings'... would this be one?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4044432/Jihadi-John-II-British-extremist-guarded-hate-cleric-Anjem-Choudary-appears-sick-ISIS-beheading-video.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK

rkrkrk

Negotiations haven't even started yet. Doubt anything Boris or Amber Rudd has said up to now will have any impact whatsoever.

I agree hard brexit is most likely because it will be easiest to agree and is also the default option.
That could change if European leaders change. Imagine if Merkel fell for instance!?

Key thing for May will be to ensure a clean brexit without some kind of interim crisis as we move to whatever new system.

logical_song

"The right feasts on undoubted hypocrisies and evils in the liberal mainstream. It picks them apart and examines their ghoulish contradictions. Like its counterparts on the left, it then rapidly loses itself in the magic world of conspiracy theory. If you genuinely believe a sinister force has organised 97% of climate scientists to lie about global warming, or Brussels has bribed economists across the world to lie about the danger of Brexit, you are not just assuming mass mendacity at an astonishing level. You are also assuming “the establishment” is capable of the astonishing level of organisation required to persuade tens of thousands to lie."

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Song, believing scientists to be mistaken (and there's a strong herd mentality, with those disagreeing with the consensus not necessarily finding it easy to get funding/coverage) is not the same as believing them to organised by a malevolent force.

The Newtonian view of light was propagated for centuries after his death, but was wrong. There was no organising force, just a weight of consensus that was in error.

As for economists, the IMF went from slating Osborne's plans to praising their excellence. I'm still waiting for Western Civilisation to collapse.

Moses_

Jeez

There really can't be any more toys left in the Meeks pramulator or clean dummies in the sterilising jar not so far spat out. The "average member of the public" voted for leave as the referendum showed. It was a remain / leave vote. More voted to leave.

It also seems quite ok and desirable to wrap yourself in an EU flag of which we have little connection yet oddly racist and xenophobic to do the same with a British flag.

There does though seem to be a great difficulty for a certain person to achieve the final stage of grief here and accept we voted to leave. Time to move on as these continuous thread headers are just repetitive, boring and the tantrums of a denied toddler in the sweet shop.

YellowSubmarine

Themes of 2016: is democracy itself threatened by tech disruption?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/themes-of-2016-hacking-free-and-fair-elections?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Sean_F

logical_song said:

"The right feasts on undoubted hypocrisies and evils in the liberal mainstream. It picks them apart and examines their ghoulish contradictions. Like its counterparts on the left, it then rapidly loses itself in the magic world of conspiracy theory. If you genuinely believe a sinister force has organised 97% of climate scientists to lie about global warming, or Brussels has bribed economists across the world to lie about the danger of Brexit, you are not just assuming mass mendacity at an astonishing level. You are also assuming “the establishment” is capable of the astonishing level of organisation required to persuade tens of thousands to lie."

Not a conspiracy, so much as groupthink.

Political and economic establishments that have brought us variously the euro, the banking crisis, mass migration, the Iraq War don't inspire confidence in their judgement.

Charles

logical_song said:

"The right feasts on undoubted hypocrisies and evils in the liberal mainstream. It picks them apart and examines their ghoulish contradictions. Like its counterparts on the left, it then rapidly loses itself in the magic world of conspiracy theory. If you genuinely believe a sinister force has organised 97% of climate scientists to lie about global warming, or Brussels has bribed economists across the world to lie about the danger of Brexit, you are not just assuming mass mendacity at an astonishing level. You are also assuming “the establishment” is capable of the astonishing level of organisation required to persuade tens of thousands to lie."

No we are assuming that rational people respond rationally to incentives.

International organisations that depend on climate change for their existence tend to have a bias towards finding projects that presuppose climate change. Scientists follow the funding.

DavidL

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

Scott_P

DavidL said:

The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

What if the answer to that question is "not Brexit" ?

isam

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

What if the answer to that question is "not Brexit" ?

NR

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

Mortimer said:

@ydoethur

But but but European liberals are nowt but a force for good, right? Questioning them is being a Tory toady. Patriotism, the notion of negotiation and common sense have gone out of the window.

However their words, actions and postures seems to suggest otherwise

What's even more puzzling to me about such statements (I know you were being sarcastic) is that when I look at his record with a cold eye I wouldn't say Juncker was a liberal. Economically I'd put him nearer Trump than Hammond, and that may be being harsh to Trump.

As for his pan-EU expansionism and ruthless hammering of non-Europeans via his trade arrangements...

Liberal is no longer a meaningful word in this context, the usage is just as an alt.right term of abuse.

PlatoSaid

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Song, believing scientists to be mistaken (and there's a strong herd mentality, with those disagreeing with the consensus not necessarily finding it easy to get funding/coverage) is not the same as believing them to organised by a malevolent force.

The Newtonian view of light was propagated for centuries after his death, but was wrong. There was no organising force, just a weight of consensus that was in error.

As for economists, the IMF went from slating Osborne's plans to praising their excellence. I'm still waiting for Western Civilisation to collapse.

My personal favourite is Phlogiston - that lasted until about 1775 when Oxygen was discovered, almost 100yrs...

"The phlogiston theory is a superseded scientific theory that postulated that a fire-like element called phlogiston is contained within combustible bodies and released during combustion. The name comes from the Ancient Greek φλογιστόν phlogistón (burning up), from φλόξ phlóx (flame). It was first stated in 1667 by Johann Joachim Becher, and then put together more formally by Georg Ernst Stahl. The theory attempted to explain burning processes such as combustion and rusting, which are now collectively known as oxidation.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

Charles

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

What if the answer to that question is "not Brexit" ?

By definition that's impossible. Rejecting the democratically expressed views of the people can never be "the best deal"

In the same way, I would have been sad to see my Scottish cousins Leave, and I would believe they were making a great mistake, but if they voted to leave that would be there choice and I would get on with facilitating it as quickly and painlessly as possible.

DavidL

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

What if the answer to that question is "not Brexit" ?

That is not an option. The people have chosen.

And while we are at it perhaps we can all stop using sexual metaphors for this process. "Soft" and "hard" are meaningless and undefined terms which add nothing to the process. We need to get more specific, more technical more focussed. And less juvenile, that will definitely help.

Scott_P

Charles said:

By definition that's impossible. Rejecting the democratically expressed views of the people can never be "the best deal"

You seem to be claiming it is "impossible" for voters to change their minds.

Welcome to the 1000 year Tory Reich.

Oh, wait...

Scott_P

DavidL said:

That is not an option. The people have chosen.

And can NEVER choose again.

May is PM in perpetuity. Oh, wait...

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

The UK tried, offering a pre negotiation deal on rights of current EU residents in the UK. Merkel wasn't interested, presumably because she sees it as a bargaining chip.

DecrepitJohnL

Scott_P said:

George Osborne has a big interview in The Times, and is on Marr this morning.

Lining up his "I told you so" campaign?

As long as it wasn't Osborne who advised David Cameron to hold the referendum in the first place.

Charles

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

By definition that's impossible. Rejecting the democratically expressed views of the people can never be "the best deal"

You seem to be claiming it is "impossible" for voters to change their minds.

Welcome to the 1000 year Tory Reich.

Oh, wait...

No. They have chosen this path so we must implement it. If, in the future, the people want to rejoin then we can open negotiations at that point.

philiph

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

The assumption is that the mutual stupidity is left outside the negotiating room after article 50 is enacted, as there is no negotiation prior to that time.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, sounds a bit like the mind-fire theory that Stoic philosophy propounded (Marcus Aurelius was a Stoic).

AlastairMeeks

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

The UK tried, offering a pre negotiation deal on rights of current EU residents in the UK. Merkel wasn't interested, presumably because she sees it as a bargaining chip.

Five months after Theresa May conspicuously declined to offer current EU residents protection. It was too late and too transparently a tactic to start prenegotiation.

In cards it is often better to be wrong quickly than right slowly. Theresa May doesn't seem to understand that.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

That Alastair I can completely agree with. I personally regret that Osborne and Mandelson are not dealing with the negotiations. We need more brains on this. This is technical and complicated and not a subject for silly generalities.

I think all we can hope is that this is the phony war brought about by a reluctance to believe that this is going to happen. Serving the Art 50 notice really can't happen soon enough. Then, hopefully, we can get down to business.

logical_song

Scientists become scientists because they want to find out how the world works. If they can advance knowledge they will have achieved something, if that is achieved by overturning conventional wisdom so much the better and their reward will be acknowledgement, maybe fame or even a Nobel prize.
The standard model of particle physics is the best we have at the moment, but scientists, being scientists, are trying to find a better theory and falsify it. The point about the standard model or climate change is that you have to base your conclusions on evidence, herd mentality has no place in science.

Scott_P

Charles said:

No. They have chosen this path so we must implement it. If, in the future, the people want to rejoin then we can open negotiations at that point.

It is as if Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove persuaded the British to abandon a familiar route ahead and try their short cut to national greatness. The landscape becomes menacing. The supposedly open road turns out to be tight and tortuous. But as soon as the passengers begin to mutter about going back, the furious demagogues of the right bellow that not only can they not turn the car round, they cannot even stop for a vote on whether they should turn the car round.

What are Brexiteers so scared of?

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

By definition that's impossible. Rejecting the democratically expressed views of the people can never be "the best deal"

Welcome to the 1000 year Tory Reich.

And thats a hat-trick of Godwins from Remainers this morning......

Black_Rook

From previous thread: two observations on the most recent set of polls.

1. We are reliably informed that Opinium consistently undermarks the Liberal Democrats, and that this must therefore be regarded as a house effect (the implication being that we ought not to take their findings in this particular regard too seriously.) Perhaps. But we ought also to bear in mind that Ipsos MORI - which reported that 14% outlier for the Lib Dems a few days ago - also appears to have "house effects" of consistently undermarking Ukip, as well as some wild yo-yoing of the Conservative number in recent months. So perhaps, unlike some people, we oughtn't to be getting wildly overexcited when they produce an unusual poll, either?

The moral of this story, IMHO, is not to be seduced by wishful thinking into reading anything at all into isolated national VI surveys, but rather to start taking them a bit more seriously when they form part of a trend. The broad trend since Theresa May became Prime Minister is still one of Tory performances in the low 40s, Labour ones in the high 20s, and the other parties rolling along at similar levels of support to the 2015 GE (except that there may now be enough evidence to suggest that overall Liberal Democrat support has crept up marginally - the 15 most recent polls dating back to mid-October give them a mean value just shy of 9%, which would put them 1% up since then.) I'm not about to believe that this has changed until we have consistent evidence from a variety of pollsters over a sustained period.

2. The Polling Matters numbers suggest that there is a majority in the country for pressing ahead with Brexit, regardless of whether it is seen to do significant economic harm or not. This could, of course, change if and when such harm emerges (assuming that it can be clearly pinned on the referendum outcome,) but this result seems to provide some evidence for what I have long suspected. Namely, that there are many pragmatic voters - on both sides of the argument - who were not ideologically wedded or opposed to the EU, and who accepted the Leave vote as the democratic will of the British people, shrugged their shoulders, and moved on as soon as the result was announced.

It is worth bearing this in mind when we consider the theoretical ceiling of support for any party running on a Continuity Remain platform. However, a party advocating the Norway model - if such a thing were to be found to be available to Britain - might do rather better (albeit that, personally, I think such a thing would be viewed by a very large section of the public as a repudiation of the Leave vote by fudge, and store up some potentially nasty problems for the future.)

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

On the available evidence, no, it's not....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Song, that supposes scientists are machines and not humans.

Mr. Meeks, I've found May to be underwhelming as PM, but she was spot on regarding citizens' rights. The correct approach is to get the same deal for EU and British citizens, not giving great protection to the former and hanging out own people out to dry.

CarlottaVance

Charles said:

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

By definition that's impossible. Rejecting the democratically expressed views of the people can never be "the best deal"

You seem to be claiming it is "impossible" for voters to change their minds.

Welcome to the 1000 year Tory Reich.

Oh, wait...

No. They have chosen this path so we must implement it. If, in the future, the people want to rejoin then we can open negotiations at that point.

I'm not sure which part of 'Party campaigns to rejoin EU at General Election, wins and implements policy' Remainers don't understand......

AlastairMeeks

When a poster exactly echoes Nazi propaganda against Jews, Godwin's law is not a sufficient answer to someone noting that. And Breaking Point exactly echoes Nazi propaganda, as can be seen above.

DecrepitJohnL

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

That Alastair I can completely agree with. I personally regret that Osborne and Mandelson are not dealing with the negotiations. We need more brains on this. This is technical and complicated and not a subject for silly generalities.

I think all we can hope is that this is the phony war brought about by a reluctance to believe that this is going to happen. Serving the Art 50 notice really can't happen soon enough. Then, hopefully, we can get down to business.

It is not just with the EU these clowns will be negotiating but also with a USA which has just decided TPP is not sufficiently loaded in its own favour.

Scott_P

CarlottaVance said:

I'm not sure which part of 'Party campaigns to rejoin EU at General Election, wins and implements policy' Remainers don't understand......

Which part of "When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?" don't the Brexiteers understand?

rcs1000

@Charles: hypothetically, if there was a General Election next year and the Liberal Democrats were elected with 75% of the vote on a "we take it all back" platform, surely you would accept that the British people had changed their minds?

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

No. They have chosen this path so we must implement it. If, in the future, the people want to rejoin then we can open negotiations at that point.

But as soon as the passengers begin to mutter about going back

But they're not.

They've accepted the decision and want to move on.

Gallowgate

Osborne coming across well on Marr in my opinion.

felix

Osborne entirely sensible and reasonable on Marr this morning. It is really silly to waste him on the backbenchers at this difficult time. I still cannot understand why he is not foreign Secretary and the buffoon is wasting that space.

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is really is drivel. They are clever, we are stupid. They are strong, we are weak. They are wise and all seeing, we are short sighted and ignorant. We're all doomed.

In the real world things are much more interesting. They are not without complexities and there are some difficult issues to address and some hard choices to make but this doom mongering is really silly and beneath Alastair.

It is long past time remainers got with the programme. The question of whether to Brexit or not to Brexit has been answered. The question of what is the best deal for the UK and indeed for the EU has still to be answered. The focus really needs to be on that.

In previous thread headers I've pointed out the shortsightedness of the EU. Those thread headers were enthusiastically received. But point out that the British government is playing a difficult hand badly and Leavers drape themselves in a flag of indignation.

Currently we are drifting into an entirely avoidable crisis because people on all sides are making no attempt to understand the other. The EU has, foolishly in my view, painted itself into a corner over freedom of movement. Still more foolishly, the British government is playing John Bull at a time when other EU governments see Nigel Farage playing the boor and Boris Johnson playing the buffoon.

Who is going to start the process of bringing the megaphone diplomacy to an end? Because someone has to, and saying that it's the other side's responsibility is juvenile.

The UK tried, offering a pre negotiation deal on rights of current EU residents in the UK. Merkel wasn't interested, presumably because she sees it as a bargaining chip.

Five months after Theresa May conspicuously declined to offer current EU residents protection. It was too late and too transparently a tactic to start prenegotiation.

In cards it is often better to be wrong quickly than right slowly. Theresa May doesn't seem to understand that.

You are wrong. 5 months ago she said something like "we very much hope to be able to guarantee their rights and we will do so as soon as the EU guarantees the rights of our citizens living there"

Her position has been identical since becoming PM. At one point in the leadership campaign she was asked if she would offer a unilateral guarantee and said "no" - not inconsistent with her formal position

HYUFD

Yes, the UK's rhetoric has been shameful, especially when Juncker and Verhofstadt etc have been so positive about Brexit. Seriously though May is likely to offer the EU free movement controlled by a job offer and limited budget contributions to try and get limited single market access, if they agree then fine and if not there is not much more that can be done

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

I'm not sure which part of 'Party campaigns to rejoin EU at General Election, wins and implements policy' Remainers don't understand......

Which part of "When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?" don't the Brexiteers understand?

The facts are a General Election - due May 2020 - that could change, until then we've already seen the voters don't want a second referendum.

felix

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Song, that supposes scientists are machines and not humans.

Mr. Meeks, I've found May to be underwhelming as PM, but she was spot on regarding citizens' rights. The correct approach is to get the same deal for EU and British citizens, not giving great protection to the former and hanging out own people out to dry.

sadly , for me, Brits abroad are simply not cool enough for the liberal left in the UK - they cannot forgive us for reading the Daily Mail

Charles

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

No. They have chosen this path so we must implement it. If, in the future, the people want to rejoin then we can open negotiations at that point.

It is as if Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove persuaded the British to abandon a familiar route ahead and try their short cut to national greatness. The landscape becomes menacing. The supposedly open road turns out to be tight and tortuous. But as soon as the passengers begin to mutter about going back, the furious demagogues of the right bellow that not only can they not turn the car round, they cannot even stop for a vote on whether they should turn the car round.

What are Brexiteers so scared of?

If you are going to quote someone you should attribute and link.

But Brexiteers are not scared. The people have given clear instructions - to leave - and expect the politicians to get on with the details

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Felix, you were cool when most of you were voting to Remain. Now you've come off second best to EU citizens in the UK, alas.

But don't worry. I still like you

Scott_P

Charles said:

If you are going to quote someone you should attribute and link.

It was already linked upthread

Scott_P

Charles said:

But Brexiteers are not scared.

They are terrified.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

@Charles: hypothetically, if there was a General Election next year and the Liberal Democrats were elected with 75% of the vote on a "we take it all back" platform, surely you would accept that the British people had changed their minds?

If it was clearly stated in their manifesto and a majority of MPs were elected on the basis of revoking Article 50 and staying in the EU then yes, the people would be deemed to have changed their mind.

HYUFD

YS Retraining is vital and a universal basic income probably inevitable

Gallowgate

Liam Fox essentially back-peddling on everything.

SimonStClare

AlastairMeeks said:

When a poster exactly echoes Nazi propaganda against Jews, Godwin's law is not a sufficient answer to someone noting that. And Breaking Point exactly echoes Nazi propaganda, as can be seen above.

The poster above looks like any one of the thousands of photos that appeared across the media, highlighting Europe’s migration crisis.

Charles

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

If you are going to quote someone you should attribute and link.

It was already linked upthread

So?

It's simple courtesy to the writer and your readers.

Charles

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

But Brexiteers are not scared.

They are terrified.

I'm not. And neither are the ones I know. It's not going to be easy but that is the path we are walking. We have confidence in our people and country.

ydoethur

Gallowgate said:

Liam Fox essentially back-peddling on everything.

Finally we've found something he's good at?