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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t
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Interesting how the narrative has developed differently.
A mistake few on Politicalbetting made. I wonder if I'll ever surpass it for betting profits in a single evening*?
* I would have made more money, but I'd been drinking a bottle of Chateau Palmer, and I was really worried I was being pissed and stupid.
Tory majority 2/1 after the Nuneaton result
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44488570.html
I did not place a single bet on BREXIT until 0054 on June 23rd when I went heavily for LEAVE. My view before was that REMAIN would win but the odds weren't attractive so I kept out.
The problem is that the range would cover both (e.g.) Leave and Remain.
Whichever was greater or more likely would then be taken as the prediction.
Given that the polling all swung away from leave in the final stages with only one or two even giving a leave lead in the last week means they were wrong. Most not drastically to be fair, this was not GE15, but there was still a bias.
Sorry.
The overall final picture wasn't good. Of the 13 polls published after Jo Cox's murder - i.e. the final nine days of the campaign - only three had Leave ahead, and those by 1, 2 and 2%. The last poll published that had Leave ahead by the 4% they achieved (or more) was an online one with BMG, with fieldwork from 10-15 June (which had Leave ahead by 10%, at the same time as they also published a phone poll that had Remain 6% up, which hardly did much for their credibility).
http://english.aawsat.com/2016/12/article55363347/british-pm-attend-37th-gcc-summit-bahrain
We, on the other hand, had @AndyJS and his spreadsheet
I suppose it has the virtue of making Brexit means Brexit sound a bit less shit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-75361d40-67f0-4544-bb29-c9bee5b2251f
I repeatedly pointed out the very peculiar +6/7/8/9/10/11/12 Democrat sample weightings that defied logic based on the primaries and HRC lacklustre rally enthusiasm.
But I will only bet whilst sober.
Purple is UKIP's colour.
Just saying ...
Britain has already converted Europe to democracy.
Now we have to work on the rest.
- As others here have pointed out, the final polls were wrong; there's no point getting it right two months out and wrong on June the 22nd.
- It seems that a lot of Leave's leads generally were in the 1-4% range, and perhaps discounted as such, whereas a lot of phone polls as late as May were showing double-digit Remain leads, and some from the start of the campaign bigger than that.
- The media and analysts tended to give a lot of weight to phone over online polls. The former were wrong on the whole. Not really the pollsters' fault how others interpreted them I guess.
In horse racing (where I bet far more often than on politics) one in three odds on chances gets beaten and it's much more sensible to follow the money rather than simply back the favourite. In a binary contest, it's harder to do that and if you're a bookie, you can't ignore the weight of money even if you think it's wrong.
If every other book is going 4/6 and you're standing at 8/11 and someone comes in wanting £110k to win £80k, you're either going to blink or take a big hit.
In the EU Referendum, I went to bed having read the IPSOS Mori poll in the Standard showing a 52-48 REMAIN lead and then hearing the online Populus poll apparently showing a big late swing to REMAIN (55-45). Had you asked me at 11pm on the Thursday night, I'd have said REMAIN 53-47.
It was the perception of that late Populus poll (which I believe convinced No.10 as well that REMAIN had won) that perhaps gives credence to the notion that all polls were wrong. OGH is right - there were plenty of polls with LEAVE in front and a considerable number within MoE showing an effective dead heat.
Can you argue that with a 3% MoE, a poll showing a 51-49 REMAIN lead would have been statistically accurate ?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38220399
However, the last comment is true. What on earth is security like in the city if a man who admits to killing 300 people and having a hand in 3000 more murders is targeted for crime not once, but twice?
It is not easy to come up with practical solutions but we certainly should not stand aside and look away.
Really?
If so, I despair.
Twitter makes me laugh. Folks losing their sh*t over a throwaway May soundbite. EU mother Merkel proposes Ukip policy & barely any complaint
*Actually I'm as labile as SeanT. On other days I hope the Germans are upto the Manifest Destiny we've handed them. The Jury is out.
Merkel's view on the burqa less so, even assuming she will get such a policy through. One might also have wondered why she did not think of matters such as this before - rather than after - letting in a million people from the Middle East.
But there you go: hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I had the misfortune to sit behind some Hasidic jews on a flight from the US a few days ago.
They were extremely rude to the poor female flight attendants.
That's difficult to amend without completely changing the intent.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/merkel-and-the-crying-girl-five-lessons
Bets of £100k are plentiful in the ring at Cheltenham in March and Ascot in June and I suspect at many Hong Kong race meetings.
My tenners and the occasional score aren't going to make the bookies flinch except at a midweek all weather meeting (and not even then to be honest).
As a bookie, if you want business at the big meetings, you pay big money for the best pitch and you stand the biggest bets and that means the £100k bets but there's no point you going 4/7 if the guy next door is offering 4/6 or 8/13 as the big player still wants value.
If, however, you think the 4/7 shot should be 1/2 you might be right to duck it and let the guy next door take the pain - it's a judgement call.
The bill could read "The government to invoke Article 50 and to arrange for the US to become a dominion of the United Kingdom", and it wouldn't matter one jot. Once the letter has been submitted to the EU, then the ball is rolling.
Spinsters cycling to Evensong redux.
Ge 2015: phone polls better than online. LD UKIP accurate but Tories undercalled and Lab over called.
EUref: online polls beat phone. Understate leave
Richmond: LDs beat all polling saying Zac would hold.
Austria: this time polls understated the "mainstream/acceptable" option - no shy FPOers?
Italy: polls say TCTC yet actually landslide NO - it wasn't the unpalatable option as Renzi was unpopular and it became a vote on him.
This is just a handful of the errors - but it seems like there are many so many causes at work and the polls are failing in numerous directions - look even at Corbyn polling in local elections and non Richmond by elections, Not great but held on to vote much better than expected.
Oh, and the kit also includes vaseline.
I once surprised an elderly shopkeeper in North Norfolk with my balaklava and vaseline. (fnarr, fnarr)
Burquas are appalling control garments that the worst misogynists just love as it removes a female's entire identity using SHAME as a justification. If a Christian bloke tried to make his girlfriend or spouse wear one - we'd be outraged. But because a branch of Islam has somehow become a protected class - it's all handwaved away.
Imagine men being coerced into wearing a bin-liner - nope me neither.
https://blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2016/11/24/making-an-unamendable-a50-bill/
That said I'm still not clear on whether Labour would be able to amend it... Suspect it will be another fun thing for the denizens of pb.com to argue over.
I think we would have ticked every box for the Daily Mail.
It'd be a real problem, and one any ban would have to try to address.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/06/spread-betting-does-fca-want-tighten-rules/
https://twitter.com/LivKinsleyTV/status/806135805865590784
EU Ref - non-voters turning out in greater numbers
Richmond - low skewed turnout, and tactical voting; turned into EU vote
Austria - a second vote on the same issue, bringing out many who sat out the first round
Italy - high turnout, including non-voters
I may be wrong and don't have the time to do the research to support this with facts, but none of those four votes were standard plebiscites with predictable electorates, or indeed predictable voting for existing voters.
Coming hot on the heels of Trump deciding AGW is real, I wonder if Al Gore could be the most surprising Trump appointment.
If we think that a vocal Muslim minority is acting in a way that is at odds with our own values, there are lots of current laws (FGM?) we should actually apply before we introduct additional tokenistic sticking tape regulations on things like burqas, where, as I said, there would be a net loss to women's freedoms.
The Casey report does highlight one big problem which can be more easily addressed, which is the endemic importation of foreign brides in arranged marriages.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/05/muslim-communities-remain-isolated-men-keep-marrying-foreign/