Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
A lot of longstanding Lib Dem ex mps won't be contesting those seats...Somerton and frome in 2015 showed what can happen in that scenario. Particularly when polling at 7 percent nationwide. And I say that as a Remainer. Couldn't countenance voting Farron, might have been different with Clegg in charge. Unfortunately even then if that meant risking Labour I wouldn't do it. And that's a big card for the Tories and a big problem for the yellows.
Humour value. M5S has had such s serious problem with defections (13 of its 109 deputies have quit the party to join other parties) that it is now insisting that all candidates put up €150,000 bond that is forfeit if they rat.
we were told that if we voted LEAVE there would be immediate recession...wrong, inflation...wrong...more unemployment...wrong. It's all liberal elite bollox.
I think inflation has increased somewhat.
Not all that much though, a lot less than one would expect with a 14% devaluation against the basket.
Agreed. We've been lucky to have such a competitive retail sector, which has prevented price gouging.
Does that imply we were getting ripped off pre-Brexit? It really wouldn't surprise me if we were.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
A lot of longstanding Lib Dem ex mps won't be contesting those seats...Somerton and frome in 2015 showed what can happen in that scenario. Particularly when polling at 7 percent nationwide. And I say that as a Remainer. Couldn't countenance voting Farron, might have been different with Clegg in charge. Unfortunately even then if that meant risking Labour I wouldn't do it. And that's a big card for the Tories and a big problem for the yellows.
It'll be interesting to see how the LDs do in the locals in these seats in the next two to three years. London 2018 will be absolutely key for them.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers! Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
I am sorry for the LibDems, really I am, because they didn't deserve 2015. But, this is delusional. It is like the predictions of fifty UKIP seats before 2015 from excitable Kippers.
What do you mean "Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect)."
Surely the LibDems, of all people, should know the virtue of facing both ways.
What Labour are going to do is have Brexit candidates for Leave seats (as in Sleaford).and Bremainers for Remain seats.
Huppert will be facing a Labour candidate (probably Zeichner) who will be at least as enthusiastic as the LibDems about the EU.
There will be no Brexit effect for Huppert. He will have to fight Labour for the Remain votes, (75 per cent of the electorate) and the indications are that he will lose.
Is Zeichner in step with his leader and the Labour Party in general?
Zeichner represents a constituency that voted 74 per cent Remain. What do you think his position is ? He is not a fool (though I agree not as impressive as Huppert).
In fact, the parts of Cambridge that voted Leave are the most solidly Labour areas. So Zeichner will also get most of the 25 % of the Leave voters, on other grounds.
we were told that if we voted LEAVE there would be immediate recession...wrong, inflation...wrong...more unemployment...wrong. It's all liberal elite bollox.
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
We can remain in the EU on the terms we have. No luck or wishful thinking is involved.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
What if the Continentals don't want us back? Serious question: all those integration projects ( say EU army as an example) would have to put up with eeyor Britain sullenly sitting in the corner miserably eating thistles and kicking against everything.
They'd quite like our money.
Sure, but it's the vision thing.
Brexit was voted for because the original sin of our involvement was never resolved, in that the Continent saw/sees "Europe" as a political project with economic add ons and we saw the opposite (and generally saw the politics as something annoying to be tolerated at best - there are few "true believers, I think, in l'esprit communautaire". Immigration was merely the visible manifestation of that issue. That fault line eventually split on June 23rd, and nothing is likely to change even if (God forbid) Brexit is forestalled, by roundabout means.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
successful and richest can be seen as different. My point is EU is not the panacea. My visits to France, Italy, Cyprus, Greece show a war-like economy. ROmania and Hungary are shedding people like no tomorrow. EU has no buzz, It's fucked.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Cheltenham local elections this May Lib Dems 15 seats Conservatives 3 seats Lib Dems 45% Con 30%
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
successful and richest can be seen as different. My point is EU is not the panacea. My visits to France, Italy, Cyprus, Greece show a war-like economy. ROmania and Hungary are shedding people like no tomorrow. EU has no buzz, It's fucked.
I think it's a bit more complicated than that, but I'm watching Fawlty Towers right now
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
successful and richest can be seen as different. My point is EU is not the panacea. My visits to France, Italy, Cyprus, Greece show a war-like economy. ROmania and Hungary are shedding people like no tomorrow. EU has no buzz, It's fucked.
I think it's a bit more complicated than that, but I'm watching Fawlty Towers right now
of course, but EU is crap and our future will be no worse. I'm confident it will be better. Unproven either way currently. after all "What have the Romans ever done for us"
Some of us have been making this point for months.
It's a good analysis- although I think it neglects the fact that European leaders may change quite a bit in the next few years...
It's not the most likely outcome- but it is possible that 2017 could see Merkel toppled, Marine Le Pen elected, Five Star Movement take over in Italy... Then surely all bets are off in terms of what the EU countries will do?
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Cheltenham local elections this May Lib Dems 15 seats Conservatives 3 seats Lib Dems 45% Con 30%
and Portsmouth South Lib Dems 6 seats Con 1 Lab 1 Vote share Lib Dem 37% Con 24%
Leaving the EU and rejoining the EEA via EFTA would certainly not be 'Hard Brexit'. Why is that not possible in your opinion?
It is entirely possible. But EEA+EFTA is a hard Brexit to Europhiles such as Scott. What they actually mean by soft Brexit is remaining in the EU in all but name.
Some of us have been making this point for months.
It's a good analysis- although I think it neglects the fact that European leaders may change quite a bit in the next few years...
It's not the most likely outcome- but it is possible that 2017 could see Merkel toppled, Marine Le Pen elected, Five Star Movement take over in Italy... Then surely all bets are off in terms of what the EU countries will do?
Unfortunately, this is starting to look like Leave's last, desperate card: hope that Europe elects a load of cranks and extremists and in the ensuing mayhem we can give it all another go.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
Seriously?? Like seriously?
The best comedy is based in truth.
And besides, look where the fatalistic grumbling about how we're not happy bedfellows has got us? Months or years of navel gazing about how to move to a position just one iota more detached from the EU so that we can save face over Brexit.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Cheltenham local elections this May Lib Dems 15 seats Conservatives 3 seats Lib Dems 45% Con 30%
Fair point and if Labour were more electable then the Lib Dems would have a great chance in far more seats. What 2015 proved was that in a forced choice voters will back the Tories to keep a perceived incompetent Labour away from government in these type of seats. Obviously the right wing whack jobs in the Tory party need to hope that's the case still without Cameron as leader.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Cheltenham local elections this May Lib Dems 15 seats Conservatives 3 seats Lib Dems 45% Con 30%
2014 Cheltenham local elections LD 43% 14 seats Con 30% 4 seats
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
Seriously?? Like seriously?
The best comedy is based in truth.
And besides, look where the fatalistic grumbling about how we're not happy bedfellows has got us? Months or years of navel gazing about how to move to a position just one iota more detached from the EU so that we can save face over Brexit.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
Seriously?? Like seriously?
The best comedy is based in truth.
And besides, look where the fatalistic grumbling about how we're not happy bedfellows has got us? Months or years of navel gazing about how to move to a position just one iota more detached from the EU so that we can save face over Brexit.
Well one step further than being an outer province of Germany at the least.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Cheltenham local elections this May Lib Dems 15 seats Conservatives 3 seats Lib Dems 45% Con 30%
Fair point and if Labour were more electable then the Lib Dems would have a great chance in far more seats. What 2015 proved was that in a forced choice voters will back the Tories to keep a perceived incompetent Labour away from government in these type of seats. Obviously the right wing whack jobs in the Tory party need to hope that's the case still without Cameron as leader.
Scare tactics may very well have worked once in 2015 but very rarely do they work twice .
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
successful and richest can be seen as different. My point is EU is not the panacea. My visits to France, Italy, Cyprus, Greece show a war-like economy. ROmania and Hungary are shedding people like no tomorrow. EU has no buzz, It's fucked.
LOL, Robert.
I assume you are using the IMF list. Of the 2 EU states, one is a city state, and the other is not Germany. Of the two EFTA states, one is resource rich. You don't seem to be making a point at all with your post.
For those who are interested, that leaves Ireland and Switzerland as the model economies which are not city states or natural resource rich. Not sure that is at all helpful for those running larger economies.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
I have it on good authority that they expect to take Manchester Withington
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers! Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list. I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others. 10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Cheltenham local elections this May Lib Dems 15 seats Conservatives 3 seats Lib Dems 45% Con 30%
2014 Cheltenham local elections LD 43% 14 seats Con 30% 4 seats
No, we are not aiming for WTO terms, but merely doing what is necessary to ensure that all is in place at the WTO for whatever deal we end up with the EU. As you missed out, deliberately, this does not prejudge the outcome of talks with the EU. Indeed, it is only sensible to do this in parallel.
Comments
In fact, the parts of Cambridge that voted Leave are the most solidly Labour areas. So Zeichner will also get most of the 25 % of the Leave voters, on other grounds.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
My Question was to do with British muslims son's or daughters born here who have a arranged marriage to someone from a foriegn country.
My next door neighbour is on his second arranged marriage to someone from pakistan.
Brexit was voted for because the original sin of our involvement was never resolved, in that the Continent saw/sees "Europe" as a political project with economic add ons and we saw the opposite (and generally saw the politics as something annoying to be tolerated at best - there are few "true believers, I think, in l'esprit communautaire". Immigration was merely the visible manifestation of that issue. That fault line eventually split on June 23rd, and nothing is likely to change even if (God forbid) Brexit is forestalled, by roundabout means.
It's not the most likely outcome- but it is possible that 2017 could see Merkel toppled, Marine Le Pen elected, Five Star Movement take over in Italy... Then surely all bets are off in terms of what the EU countries will do?
And besides, look where the fatalistic grumbling about how we're not happy bedfellows has got us? Months or years of navel gazing about how to move to a position just one iota more detached from the EU so that we can save face over Brexit.
LD 43% 14 seats
Con 30% 4 seats
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/209/
2015 Cheltenham general election
Con 46%
LD 34%
And incumbency will now work to the Conservative advantage not the LibDem.
The EU makes up for the opacity of its institutions with the transparency of its interests.
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Hell, yes, I don't mind the cookies but it's the apostrophes which I can't take.
I assume you are using the IMF list. Of the 2 EU states, one is a city state, and the other is not Germany. Of the two EFTA states, one is resource rich. You don't seem to be making a point at all with your post.
For those who are interested, that leaves Ireland and Switzerland as the model economies which are not city states or natural resource rich. Not sure that is at all helpful for those running larger economies.
Nope multi racial Democracy doesn't work.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-much-harder-to-protect-southern-black-voters-influence-than-it-was-10-years-ago/
Meanwhile we are now aiming for negotiating to trade on WTO terms...
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2016-12-05/HCWS316/
NEW THREAD
No you don't understand.
That banner proclaimed: "Brexit mean is Brexit". In other words the average Brexit is, in fact, Brexit. Which is true.
Dear me, I thought it was obvious.