Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election.
But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election.
But what platform would she fight on?
On the contrary, if Britain is still in the EU by the time of the next election that will be the point of real danger of the Tories falling in the middle between the LD and UKIP.
Interesting. Jeremy Corbyn IS NOT a drag on the Labour Party. His net approval rating is better than that of the party. You will hear more about this, I am sure.
Do any of us think Labour would be in any better a position if Owen Smith, Argclu or even Yvette Cooper were in charge? They still wouldn't be able to achieve a united position on any of the key issues of the key issues of the day - Brexit, LHR3, Trident, Austerity - and they would still struggle to see how to reconcile the conflicting interests of the different bits of their base. Labour's problem is a lot more fundamental than Corbyn, who is a symptom rather than the cause of their difficulty.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election.
But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
I don't see that happening, there are not many non-urban Labour seats left.
Does anyone know what is going on in Sleaford campaign wise, I haven't even checked who the candidates are.
You knew a lot about Richmond Park thanks to proximity to the media centres, but has anyone bothered to report from rural lincolshire ?
Very low key.
So far I have had one letter from Theresa May asking me to vote for Caroline Johnson and one call from a young male Tory canvasser asking me a few questions about my voting intention, certainty to vote and views on the EU.
I have had one leaflet from UKIP and today one letter from the Lib Dems.
As I am nominally still a UKIP member I have also had a load of emails from UKIP both locally and nationally asking me to help in the campaign which I have ignored.
F1: Allan McNish writes an interesting piece on Rosberg, including some ruminations at the end about who might get the gig. He suspects Bottas, maybe Wehrlein [personally, he'd go for Perez].
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election. But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
"Middle of the road Conservatives" are in danger of extinction, Mr Andy. And therefore the Conservative Party is not a sustainable grouping.
@RobD Yes. Not only is there a method for a Returning Officer to settle ties in elections they are required to. So why not in the Referendum ? Because elections are binding. Someone has to win. The Referendum was advisory.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election. But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
"Middle of the road Conservatives" are in danger of extinction, Mr Andy. And therefore the Conservative Party is not a sustainable grouping.
Is that why the Tories are on 45% in many opinion polls at the moment?
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election.
But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
I don't see that happening, there are not many non-urban Labour seats left.
There are 4 seats in the Potteries the Tories could win from Labour, 4 more in north-east Wales and 3 in Cumbria. Those are just the easiest ones. There's also the likes of Wakefield, Halifax, Scunthorpe, Bristol East, Newport West, Penistone, Darlington.
@RobD Yes. Not only is there a method for a Returning Officer to settle ties in elections they are required to. So why not in the Referendum ? Because elections are binding. Someone has to win. The Referendum was advisory.
Or rather because the chances of a tie with more than 30 million individual votes is so slight as to be almost impossible.
@RobD Yes. Not only is there a method for a Returning Officer to settle ties in elections they are required to. So why not in the Referendum ? Because elections are binding. Someone has to win. The Referendum was advisory.
Thankfully neither were needed, and I'm not sure the lack of preparation for a tie will influence the case.
Sarah Olney took her seat this afternoon. Was led in by Tim Farron and Alistair Carmichael. Interesting that Caroline Lucas gave her a smile just before she was introduced.
and they sat together afterwards.. Best friends or politically something more?
F1: Allan McNish writes an interesting piece on Rosberg, including some ruminations at the end about who might get the gig. He suspects Bottas, maybe Wehrlein [personally, he'd go for Perez].
Personally, I reckon Bottas to Mercedes and Di Resta to Williams is probably the easiest to engineer. I can't see them giving such a difficult seat to a total novice like Wherlein, they're on a mission for the Constructors' title again next year and need both drivers challenging for the win every race.
Sarah Olney took her seat this afternoon. Was led in by Tim Farron and Alistair Carmichael. Interesting that Caroline Lucas gave her a smile just before she was introduced.
and they sat together afterwards.. Best friends or politically something more?
The Lib Dems and Greens want to form some weird progressive alliance. They dislike FPTP and want PR which will give them more MPs.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
Mr. Jason, worth pointing out that several factors lined up nicely for the Lib Dems (Goldsmith losing standing for his mayoral antics, all candidates singing from the same hymn sheet on the runway, Goldsmith being a Leave chap in a Remain constituency), though overturning a 23,000 majority was still significant.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
Well I though the Lib Dems had an excellent candidate in Richmond and the voters seemed to think so too
@RobD Yes. Not only is there a method for a Returning Officer to settle ties in elections they are required to. So why not in the Referendum ? Because elections are binding. Someone has to win. The Referendum was advisory.
You have sadly become a ridiculous caricature of yourself.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was oneof the brightest by election winners I've heard for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
Sarah Olney does have tbe refreshing naivety of someone who has never held office before, and can be a little unguarded in what she says. Fine for an opposition backbencher, when we have a novice POTUS who has a twitter war underway with China!
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election.
But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
Even current polls would only give the Tories 20 - 25 Labour seats . Even that might be exaggerated by the bigger pro Tory swing in Scotland. Most Labour MPs in marginal seats will also enjoy first term incumbency.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
Does anyone know what is going on in Sleaford campaign wise, I haven't even checked who the candidates are.
You knew a lot about Richmond Park thanks to proximity to the media centres, but has anyone bothered to report from rural lincolshire ?
Very low key.
So far I have had one letter from Theresa May asking me to vote for Caroline Johnson and one call from a young male Tory canvasser asking me a few questions about my voting intention, certainty to vote and views on the EU.
I have had one leaflet from UKIP and today one letter from the Lib Dems.
As I am nominally still a UKIP member I have also had a load of emails from UKIP both locally and nationally asking me to help in the campaign which I have ignored.
Nothing at all from Labour.
Perhaps Labour are going for the whole "if I don't try I can't fail" approach that the Tories used in Richmond.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
They won the Edinburgh Western Scottish parliamentary seat (which matches up about 85%) comfortably in May. Now, that's largely due to the problems the SNP MP is having, but I'd be very surprised if Unionist tactical voting didn't send it yellow if there were a general election next year.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
I'm not sure I would set Tim Farron as a particularly high bar to get over. There you are, it's all in the eye of the beholder, no? By the way, it wasn't just her - Goldsmith was/is a mediocrity as well. The only candidate I thought had an ounce of character and personality was, surprisingly, the Labour fella, Wolmar. Anyway, the Tories will take back Richmond comfortably at the next election when the serious business of electing a government is at stake.
"US President-elect Donald Trump has named Ben Carson, his former rival for the Republican nomination, as secretary of housing and urban development.
"Ben Carson has a brilliant mind and is passionate about strengthening communities", the president-elect said in a statement, adding that the two had discussed his "urban renewal agenda"."
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Does anyone know what is going on in Sleaford campaign wise, I haven't even checked who the candidates are.
You knew a lot about Richmond Park thanks to proximity to the media centres, but has anyone bothered to report from rural lincolshire ?
Very low key.
So far I have had one letter from Theresa May asking me to vote for Caroline Johnson and one call from a young male Tory canvasser asking me a few questions about my voting intention, certainty to vote and views on the EU.
I have had one leaflet from UKIP and today one letter from the Lib Dems.
As I am nominally still a UKIP member I have also had a load of emails from UKIP both locally and nationally asking me to help in the campaign which I have ignored.
Nothing at all from Labour.
Perhaps Labour are going for the whole "if I don't try I can't fail" approach that the Tories used in Richmond.
Getting out the core vote, I think. I don't think Richard Tyndall is likely to vote Labour.
The Tories obviously think him worth a shot, and as a Soft Brexiteer probably right to do so.
Bias is a mindset. Of course if someone offers a documented confession of their own bias that would be proof. Other than that, your Liverpool fan could deny bias, and you could accuse him of it to high heavens but it would still be a 'conspiracy theory'.
Systemic bias is observable and measurable for actions repeated many times, as opposed to a one-off decisions (and there I think you are right - for a one-off decision, it is impossible to prove bias).
For example, if over the course of a game, all the referring errors are in favour for one team, and disadvantage the other, and this pattern recurs each time that referee refs a game between those teams, I think that would serve as 'proof' of bias for all but the tin foilers.
It would strongly imply bias but surely it wouldn't prove it. The point being we can be quite confident of something without being able to offer firm proof, and where bias is concerned, that's really all we can do, so it's specious to demand that burden of proof when you know it cannot be provided.
Where judges are concerned, perhaps this is only in courtroom dramas, but the theme of judges being harsh, lenient, liberal, conservative etc. n their views, and legal teams having to adjust accordingly, is surely a common one. Is this an invention? Do judges actually not have human mindsets and prejudices? Are their judgements actually handed down on tablets of stone from Mount Sinai?
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Look at the Cambridge Local Election results. Seats won in 2016 were Labour 9, LibDems 4, Independent 1.
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
The Conservatives won the election, winning with 331 seats (a majority of 12).
The European Referendum Act was then put before Parliament. Parliament then went to great lengths in order to make sure the wording of the question was right because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt.
During the EU Referendum campaign the Government produced a leaflet because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt as to what they were voting for.
I don’t believe that anyone can be in any doubt that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Even those who didn’t get to see all the politicians on the TV telling them as much.
David Cameron promises to act upon the result of the referendum and invoke Article 50 should a leave vote win.
Cameron promises to activate Article 50 on 28th June — youtu.be The people voted for the Government > The Government put the EU referendum to Parliament > Parliament voted in favour of holding a referendum > The referendum was put to the people > The Government / media desperately tried to get the people to vote to remain > The people chose to leave the EU (ergo the Single Market).
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Look at the Cambridge Local Election results. Seats won in 2016 were Labour 9, LibDems 4, Independent 1.
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
And yet you say Lib Dems have no chance in Cheltenham ignoring this years local elections where Lib Dems won 15 seats to Conservatives 3
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
I'm not sure I would set Tim Farron as a particularly high bar to get over. There you are, it's all in the eye of the beholder, no? By the way, it wasn't just her - Goldsmith was/is a mediocrity as well. The only candidate I thought had an ounce of character and personality was, surprisingly, the Labour fella, Wolmar. Anyway, the Tories will take back Richmond comfortably at the next election when the serious business of electing a government is at stake.
Not necessarily. This was a LibDem seat from 1997 - 2010 and it is far from certain that Goldsmith's personal vote will transfer to another Tory candidate.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Look at the Cambridge Local Election results. Seats won in 2016 were Labour 9, LibDems 4, Independent 1.
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
I agree - and the Labour MP will have the benefit of first term incumbency.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Look at the Cambridge Local Election results. Seats won in 2016 were Labour 9, LibDems 4, Independent 1.
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
I think, just as in 2015, the biggest determinant of ultimate LibDem seat numbers will be the party's overall vote share. My view, and I admit it's a minority one, is that the LibDems will score 12-14% at the next election and pick up 10 to 14 seats. (That's based around 600 constituencies; you can probably add two if it's 650 seats.)
If the LibDems have gone from 8% to 13% in the polls, and the Labour party has dropped 3-4%, then it will take an enormous amount of first term incumbency to save the seat for Labour.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Look at the Cambridge Local Election results. Seats won in 2016 were Labour 9, LibDems 4, Independent 1.
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
I think, just as in 2015, the biggest determinant of ultimate LibDem seat numbers will be the party's overall vote share. My view, and I admit it's a minority one, is that the LibDems will score 12-14% at the next election and pick up 10 to 14 seats. (That's based around 600 constituencies; you can probably add two if it's 650 seats.)
If the LibDems have gone from 8% to 13% in the polls, and the Labour party has dropped 3-4%, then it will take an enormous amount of first term incumbency to save the seat for Labour.
But if Labour has a new leader by 2020 a national vote share of circa 35% would not be unlikely!
Oh well, hard Brexit it must be then. Good luck to the EU raising capital in their own markets, and good luck to their manufacturers and their £100bn a year trade deficit.
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
We can remain in the EU on the terms we have. No luck or wishful thinking is involved.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
I doubt that the LibDems would win any of them.
Edinburgh West & Bath might be the best ones, depending on the fates of the current MPs, both of whom are very accident-prone.
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
I think the LDs are strong favourites in Cambridge.
Look at the Cambridge Local Election results. Seats won in 2016 were Labour 9, LibDems 4, Independent 1.
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
I think, just as in 2015, the biggest determinant of ultimate LibDem seat numbers will be the party's overall vote share. My view, and I admit it's a minority one, is that the LibDems will score 12-14% at the next election and pick up 10 to 14 seats. (That's based around 600 constituencies; you can probably add two if it's 650 seats.)
If the LibDems have gone from 8% to 13% in the polls, and the Labour party has dropped 3-4%, then it will take an enormous amount of first term incumbency to save the seat for Labour.
But if Labour has a new leader by 2020 a national vote share of circa 35% would not be unlikely!
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
We can remain in the EU on the terms we have. No luck or wishful thinking is involved.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
Now that definition of luck is one I can admire. Courageous, Minister?
Sarah Olney took her seat this afternoon. Was led in by Tim Farron and Alistair Carmichael. Interesting that Caroline Lucas gave her a smile just before she was introduced.
and they sat together afterwards.. Best friends or politically something more?
Maybe their husbands will be working together building Heathrow?
I would define hard Brexit as crashing out with no deal. A bilateral deal would not be a hard Brexit.
Would you vote for a bilateral deal that was seriously bad for the UK? The UK side would fracture before it ever got that far. Indeed it already seems to have done so.
I do hope we won't agree for more IMF money for Europe. Europe has been free with its threats, and it is not worth a penny from us.
The IMF (and therefore us) have made good money out of the Greece deal so far. We've borrowed at under 2% and lent at 6%. A four percent spread over the last five years means we've already made almost 20% of our capital amount.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
Agreed. I thought she was very good. Confident enough to go further than her own party's position on triggering A50 and she said so in front of her leader.
The Conservatives won the election, winning with 331 seats (a majority of 12).
The European Referendum Act was then put before Parliament. Parliament then went to great lengths in order to make sure the wording of the question was right because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt.
During the EU Referendum campaign the Government produced a leaflet because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt as to what they were voting for.
I don’t believe that anyone can be in any doubt that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Even those who didn’t get to see all the politicians on the TV telling them as much.
David Cameron promises to act upon the result of the referendum and invoke Article 50 should a leave vote win.
Cameron promises to activate Article 50 on 28th June — youtu.be The people voted for the Government > The Government put the EU referendum to Parliament > Parliament voted in favour of holding a referendum > The referendum was put to the people > The Government / media desperately tried to get the people to vote to remain > The people chose to leave the EU (ergo the Single Market).
One either believes in democracy or one does not"
The ballot paper said nothing about the Single Market.
Either you only go with what is on the ballot paper, and there is no mandate to leave the Single Market, only the EU -OR you accept that the Brexit mandate was also for the promise of £350m a week for the NHS, no tariffs on goods and services and everything else LEAVE promised. You can't pick and choose the bits of the campaign you like and ignore the rest
Mark Carney on C4 news is just a class act. I really don't get people complaining about us having someone of such clear ability assisting us through a difficult process. I personally wish that we had a lot more brains on the job than we have right now.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
... The only candidate I thought had an ounce of character and personality was, surprisingly, the Labour fella, Wolmar....
He couldn't even get all of the CLP members to vote for him.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
We can remain in the EU on the terms we have. No luck or wishful thinking is involved.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
Now that definition of luck is one I can admire. Courageous, Minister?
Ok, I accept that my final sentence was wishful thinking, but I'm increasingly confident that support for Brexit will crater when the reality sinks in.
I do hope we won't agree for more IMF money for Europe. Europe has been free with its threats, and it is not worth a penny from us.
The IMF (and therefore us) have made good money out of the Greece deal so far. We've borrowed at under 2% and lent at 6%. A four percent spread over the last five years means we've already made almost 20% of our capital amount.
And, Greek bond rates are lower than the UK's ! Who would have thought that ?
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
Agreed. I thought she was very good. Confident enough to go further than her own party's position on triggering A50 and she said so in front of her leader.
And confident to sit there not answering a straight forward question from an interviewer when she didn't have a clue what to say. Yes, a real political giant.
I do hope we won't agree for more IMF money for Europe. Europe has been free with its threats, and it is not worth a penny from us.
The IMF (and therefore us) have made good money out of the Greece deal so far. We've borrowed at under 2% and lent at 6%. A four percent spread over the last five years means we've already made almost 20% of our capital amount.
And, Greek bond rates are lower than the UK's ! Who would have thought that ?
No. They are not. I don't know where I got that from.
The Conservatives won the election, winning with 331 seats (a majority of 12).
The European Referendum Act was then put before Parliament. Parliament then went to great lengths in order to make sure the wording of the question was right because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt.
During the EU Referendum campaign the Government produced a leaflet because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt as to what they were voting for.
I don’t believe that anyone can be in any doubt that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Even those who didn’t get to see all the politicians on the TV telling them as much.
David Cameron promises to act upon the result of the referendum and invoke Article 50 should a leave vote win.
Cameron promises to activate Article 50 on 28th June — youtu.be The people voted for the Government > The Government put the EU referendum to Parliament > Parliament voted in favour of holding a referendum > The referendum was put to the people > The Government / media desperately tried to get the people to vote to remain > The people chose to leave the EU (ergo the Single Market).
One either believes in democracy or one does not"
The ballot paper said nothing about the Single Market.
Either you only go with what is on the ballot paper, and there is no mandate to leave the Single Market, only the EU -OR you accept that the Brexit mandate was also for the promise of £350m a week for the NHS, no tariffs on goods and services and everything else LEAVE promised. You can't pick and choose the bits of the campaign you like and ignore the rest
IANAL, but it would seem fairly reasonable to me to take into account what official government publications state, whilst not giving the same weight to ad-hoc groups' publications.
Not that I think they will take even official government publications into account. That seems outside their remit, if I've understood correctly.
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
We can remain in the EU on the terms we have. No luck or wishful thinking is involved.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
What if the Continentals don't want us back? Serious question: all those integration projects ( say EU army as an example) would have to put up with eeyor Britain sullenly sitting in the corner miserably eating thistles and kicking against everything.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
It would certainly be a problem for Mrs May. Lib Dems appeal to Conservatives who want to remain in the EU, or failing that, to have the softest possible exit. UKIP appealing to Tory headbangers who couldn`t care less for the consequences. The only thing to stop the Conservative Party falling to pieces immediately is to have a general election. But what platform would she fight on?
She'd pick up plenty of Labour seats to compensate for losing any to the LDs. I assume the platform would be middle-of-the-road Conservatism.
"Middle of the road Conservatives" are in danger of extinction, Mr Andy. And therefore the Conservative Party is not a sustainable grouping.
Is that why the Tories are on 45% in many opinion polls at the moment?
They haven`t started knocking bits out of one another yet, Mr Andy, but I am sure they will.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
I am sorry for the LibDems, really I am, because they didn't deserve 2015. But, this is delusional. It is like the predictions of fifty UKIP seats before 2015 from excitable Kippers.
What do you mean "Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect)."
Surely the LibDems, of all people, should know the virtue of facing both ways.
What Labour are going to do is have Brexit candidates for Leave seats (as in Sleaford).and Bremainers for Remain seats.
Huppert will be facing a Labour candidate (probably Zeichner) who will be at least as enthusiastic as the LibDems about the EU.
There will be no Brexit effect for Huppert. He will have to fight Labour for the Remain votes, (75 per cent of the electorate) and the indications are that he will lose.
Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA
we were told that if we voted LEAVE there would be immediate recession...wrong, inflation...wrong...more unemployment...wrong. It's all liberal elite bollox.
we were told that if we voted LEAVE there would be immediate recession...wrong, inflation...wrong...more unemployment...wrong. It's all liberal elite bollox.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate . You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
The liberals had an awful candidate in Richmond but still won, granted there were more activists than actual voters. We live in unpredictable times, I wouldn't put money on anything at the moment. Maybe Corbyn never being PM, but that's about it.
I thought the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond was one of the brightest by election winners I've seen for years. My guess is she'll be giving Farron a run for his money pretty soon
Agreed. I thought she was very good. Confident enough to go further than her own party's position on triggering A50 and she said so in front of her leader.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
We can remain in the EU on the terms we have. No luck or wishful thinking is involved.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
What if the Continentals don't want us back? Serious question: all those integration projects ( say EU army as an example) would have to put up with eeyor Britain sullenly sitting in the corner miserably eating thistles and kicking against everything.
Oh well, hard Brexit it must be then. Good luck to the EU raising capital in their own markets, and good luck to their manufacturers and their £100bn a year trade deficit.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers!
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham Bath Kingston Cheadle St Albans?? Cheltenham Oxford W Portsmouuth S Lewes Thornbury andYate (just) Sutton and Cheam (just) Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Edinburgh West and NE Fife will be easier gains than most of that list.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
we were told that if we voted LEAVE there would be immediate recession...wrong, inflation...wrong...more unemployment...wrong. It's all liberal elite bollox.
I think inflation has increased somewhat.
Not all that much though, a lot less than one would expect with a 14% devaluation against the basket.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
"It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues." Adolf Hitler, 1937
Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.
It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
Best outcome in Sleaford is Tory and UKIP split the vote with 30% each and LibDEm get 31% from the 35% who are remainers! Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
I am sorry for the LibDems, really I am, because they didn't deserve 2015. But, this is delusional. It is like the predictions of fifty UKIP seats before 2015 from excitable Kippers.
What do you mean "Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect)."
Surely the LibDems, of all people, should know the virtue of facing both ways.
What Labour are going to do is have Brexit candidates for Leave seats (as in Sleaford).and Bremainers for Remain seats.
Huppert will be facing a Labour candidate (probably Zeichner) who will be at least as enthusiastic as the LibDems about the EU.
There will be no Brexit effect for Huppert. He will have to fight Labour for the Remain votes, (75 per cent of the electorate) and the indications are that he will lose.
Is Zeichner in step with his leader and the Labour Party in general?
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
"It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues." Adolf Hitler, 1937
we were told that if we voted LEAVE there would be immediate recession...wrong, inflation...wrong...more unemployment...wrong. It's all liberal elite bollox.
I think inflation has increased somewhat.
Not all that much though, a lot less than one would expect with a 14% devaluation against the basket.
Agreed. We've been lucky to have such a competitive retail sector, which has prevented price gouging.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
The top ten richest countries on a ppp pet capita basis include two EU states, two efta states, five natural resource rich countries, and one city state.
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues.
"It really should be the duty of all thinking people to play their part in helping our country reconcile itself to our European reality and destiny so that we can move on and start focusing on the real issues." Adolf Hitler, 1937
Comments
But what platform would she fight on?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/nov/30/sleaford-lincolnshire-brexit-byelection-young-video?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/sleaford-and-north-hykeham-mp-candidates-to-answer-questions-in-live-facebook-chats/
So far I have had one letter from Theresa May asking me to vote for Caroline Johnson and one call from a young male Tory canvasser asking me a few questions about my voting intention, certainty to vote and views on the EU.
I have had one leaflet from UKIP and today one letter from the Lib Dems.
As I am nominally still a UKIP member I have also had a load of emails from UKIP both locally and nationally asking me to help in the campaign which I have ignored.
Nothing at all from Labour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38208224
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue
https://joesaward.wordpress.com/2016/12/03/on-nicos-retirement/
Personally, I reckon Bottas to Mercedes and Di Resta to Williams is probably the easiest to engineer. I can't see them giving such a difficult seat to a total novice like Wherlein, they're on a mission for the Constructors' title again next year and need both drivers challenging for the win every race.
If it's Bottas, the 21 (each way) on him winning the next title would be worth a look. That's a fifth the odds for top 3.
Edited extra bit: interesting article by Joe Saward.
The chance of a tie is O( 10^-7 ).
Cambridge & Cheltenham -- no chance, they staying Red & Blue respectively.
"Ben Carson has a brilliant mind and is passionate about strengthening communities", the president-elect said in a statement, adding that the two had discussed his "urban renewal agenda"."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38209969
The Tories obviously think him worth a shot, and as a Soft Brexiteer probably right to do so.
Where judges are concerned, perhaps this is only in courtroom dramas, but the theme of judges being harsh, lenient, liberal, conservative etc. n their views, and legal teams having to adjust accordingly, is surely a common one. Is this an invention? Do judges actually not have human mindsets and prejudices? Are their judgements actually handed down on tablets of stone from Mount Sinai?
Jazza is popular in Cambridge. Look on youtube for the video of the crowd snaking round Great St Marys waiting for him to speak.
There is no easy way back for Huppert.
Hat tip Hypocracyrules
"In the run up to the 2015 General Election the Conservative Party offered the electorate a referendum on our membership of the EU in their manifesto.
https://www.theguardian.com/wo...
The Conservatives won the election, winning with 331 seats (a majority of 12).
The European Referendum Act was then put before Parliament. Parliament then went to great lengths in order to make sure the wording of the question was right because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/...
David Cameron then embarked upon an exercise trying to negotiate better terms with the EU, in order so any new deal could be placed before the voters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new...
During the EU Referendum campaign the Government produced a leaflet because they didn’t want anyone to be in any doubt as to what they were voting for.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/...
I don’t believe that anyone can be in any doubt that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Even those who didn’t get to see all the politicians on the TV telling them as much.
http://webarchive.nationalarch...
David Cameron promises to act upon the result of the referendum and invoke Article 50 should a leave vote win.
Cameron promises to activate Article 50 on 28th June — youtu.be
The people voted for the Government > The Government put the EU referendum to Parliament > Parliament voted in favour of holding a referendum > The referendum was put to the people > The Government / media desperately tried to get the people to vote to remain > The people chose to leave the EU (ergo the Single Market).
One either believes in democracy or one does not"
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/12/2/florida-early-vote-a-retrospective.html/
The TL;DR is that Clinton had a decent, near perfect, early voting lead that was blown the fuck away by monstrous Trump in person voting margin.
If the LibDems have gone from 8% to 13% in the polls, and the Labour party has dropped 3-4%, then it will take an enormous amount of first term incumbency to save the seat for Labour.
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/805827909298651136
I'm all in favour of the legal niceties of A50 (and all the rest of Brexit) being solidly established, but the more I hear, the more I think we'll be lucky to get any kind of Brexit at all.
So whilst my ideal would have been one that delivered a good deal for all parties, I'm caring less & less, just so long as we eventually exit the EU.
It's interesting, too, that of course other people will be glad to think we could remain in the EU on any terms.
I sense that it's beginning to sink in that Brexit may not happen at all. With luck this will be accompanied by the realisation that we'll have dodged a bullet.
He appears to be back, at least for a week or so.
Either you only go with what is on the ballot paper, and there is no mandate to leave the Single Market, only the EU -OR you accept that the Brexit mandate was also for the promise of £350m a week for the NHS, no tariffs on goods and services and everything else LEAVE promised. You can't pick and choose the bits of the campaign you like and ignore the rest
Applying the "Richmond effect" to Con/LD marginals (Labour squeeze, Brexit effect) I come up with 12 gains for LD plus Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect).
Twickenham
Bath
Kingston
Cheadle
St Albans??
Cheltenham
Oxford W
Portsmouuth S
Lewes
Thornbury andYate (just)
Sutton and Cheam (just)
Colchester (just)
In some cases, a constituency that is leave can still go LD with a good Lab squeeze. It looks as if Lab have forgiven us for the coalition or their hatred for the Tories overcomes their scruples
Not that I think they will take even official government publications into account. That seems outside their remit, if I've understood correctly.
All successful countries in the world are outside EU except Germany and UK(just). It's all bollox.
Let the tariffs go up. They will suffer more than us. All the malarkey is typical EU and why we must leave.
What do you mean "Cambridge from Lab (because of the Brexit effect)."
Surely the LibDems, of all people, should know the virtue of facing both ways.
What Labour are going to do is have Brexit candidates for Leave seats (as in Sleaford).and Bremainers for Remain seats.
Huppert will be facing a Labour candidate (probably Zeichner) who will be at least as enthusiastic as the LibDems about the EU.
There will be no Brexit effect for Huppert. He will have to fight Labour for the Remain votes, (75 per cent of the electorate) and the indications are that he will lose.
Bless...
It does not include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan.
By try, I mean copy and paste ad nauseum
I'd be very surprised if the LDs performed well in Portsmouth South, and I don't think Cheltenham will go yellow any time soon. The best hopes for the LDs are Remain friendly SW London, and a free others.
10-14 seats next time around. Solid progress, but no cigar.
Adolf Hitler, 1937