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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Article 50 Supreme Court case betting moves a notch to the

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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    This is not a proper court. I've not heard one person shout "objection", nor has anyone been asked to "approach the bench". Poor show indeed.

    Gotta save the drama for day 3, no doubt, to ramp people up for the final day.

    The lack of robes is a disgrace - our Justices have much cooler robes than the american justices, and how often do they get to wear them?
    It would make my month if one of them dared get the phrase "you can't handle to truth" into proceedings :D
    "With respect, my lords, pertaining to the question of truth in this matter, considering the precedents espoused and the legislative norms detailed at some length, it is our contention that the parties, and perhaps indeed some of their lordships, have demonstrated they find themselves insufficient to process the fundamentals of this particular truth."
    Nicely done!
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2016

    XKCD inadvertently weighs in on Brexit:
    image

    http://xkcd.com/1768/

    The alt-text is also apposite.
    Of course "Number of times I've gotten to make a decision twice to know for sure how it would have turned out" is 0
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    I'm already tired of waiting for a decision. Yes, it's important. But it's not that bloody difficult.

    Mercedes should just pick a driver.
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    I do not think the Government will win their case and I do accept the judges will make their decision based on law and not outside influences.

    However, away from the Courts there does seem to be a growing attempt to delay and frustrate A50 by labour and the lib dems. Labour are intent on putting in amendments to the A50 process that will make it impossible for the government to negotiate a deal.

    This morning Diane Abbott absolutely declared that labour want access to the single market and no restriction on free movement of labour. She just doesn't understand how toxic this is for labour but then how can anyone understand Dianne Abbott unless you move in the London left elite circle of out of touch MP's

    I would expect that these attempts to frustrate the process will spark a backlash from not only leavers but many remainers, like myself, who accepted the result and expect the government to serve A50 asap and just get on with it
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Interesting piece from the Post on the relative accuracy of hand- and machine-counting of votes. The overall verdict. Both methods are very accurate, but machine counting is slightly more accurate (0.26% vs 0.18% error). No big surprise there.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/the-wisconsin-recount-may-have-a-surprise-in-store-after-all/?utm_term=.959f9eb1ff30
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited December 2016

    I do not think the Government will win their case and I do accept the judges will make their decision based on law and not outside influences.

    However, away from the Courts there does seem to be a growing attempt to delay and frustrate A50 by labour and the lib dems. Labour are intent on putting in amendments to the A50 process that will make it impossible for the government to negotiate a deal.

    This morning Diane Abbott absolutely declared that labour want access to the single market and no restriction on free movement of labour. She just doesn't understand how toxic this is for labour but then how can anyone understand Dianne Abbott unless you move in the London left elite circle of out of touch MP's

    I would expect that these attempts to frustrate the process will spark a backlash from not only leavers but many remainers, like myself, who accepted the result and expect the government to serve A50 asap and just get on with it

    I don't know what Labour are planning. Other reports say they do not intend to be seen to be preventing Brexit, even in the Lords, even if they might try some amendments. I think they know the potential risks. The LDs the can do what they like, they are not a factor, numbers wise, if Labour play ball, even if they mess about a bit first.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Meeks, tallow - bad for notes and for candles. Should've used beeswax.

    I'm not sure where vegans stand on beeswax. I know that honey is a subject of hot debate in such circles.
    Sounds like an ordinary dinner party in Primrose Hill.
    There are no ordinary dinner parties in Primrose Hill.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,103
    kle4 said:

    I do not think the Government will win their case and I do accept the judges will make their decision based on law and not outside influences.

    However, away from the Courts there does seem to be a growing attempt to delay and frustrate A50 by labour and the lib dems. Labour are intent on putting in amendments to the A50 process that will make it impossible for the government to negotiate a deal.

    This morning Diane Abbott absolutely declared that labour want access to the single market and no restriction on free movement of labour. She just doesn't understand how toxic this is for labour but then how can anyone understand Dianne Abbott unless you move in the London left elite circle of out of touch MP's

    I would expect that these attempts to frustrate the process will spark a backlash from not only leavers but many remainers, like myself, who accepted the result and expect the government to serve A50 asap and just get on with it

    I don't know what Labour are planning. Other reports say they do not intend to be seen to be preventing Brexit, even in the Lords, even if they might try some amendments. I think they know the potential risks. The LDs the can do what they like, they are not a factor, numbers wise, if Labour play ball, even if they mess about a bit first.
    Is preventing hard Brexit, or preventing soft Brexit, the same as preventing Brexit?

    If it looks like the government will go for Norway +, aka Cameron -, will Brexiteers be justified in trying to prevent it?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Getting on to the point about whether the referendum act was legally irrelevant or not - did the act confirm the prerogative was available.
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    Mr. Song, if he's watching a channel that doesn't have live coverage of the Supreme Court, one might argue he's watching the right channel.

    Does one of the characters keep saying 'awesome'? If so, it's the right channel.
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    Responsible capitalism < Mirror Online: Ikea is giving its staff a £1,200 bonus this Christmas - and here's why. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwkdPE9Sk
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,204
    edited December 2016
    Been working at home so had a bit of this on in the background since lunch. Not having watched this sort of thing I've been quite struck by the conversational format..
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    kle4 said:

    I do not think the Government will win their case and I do accept the judges will make their decision based on law and not outside influences.

    However, away from the Courts there does seem to be a growing attempt to delay and frustrate A50 by labour and the lib dems. Labour are intent on putting in amendments to the A50 process that will make it impossible for the government to negotiate a deal.

    This morning Diane Abbott absolutely declared that labour want access to the single market and no restriction on free movement of labour. She just doesn't understand how toxic this is for labour but then how can anyone understand Dianne Abbott unless you move in the London left elite circle of out of touch MP's

    I would expect that these attempts to frustrate the process will spark a backlash from not only leavers but many remainers, like myself, who accepted the result and expect the government to serve A50 asap and just get on with it

    I don't know what Labour are planning. Other reports say they do not intend to be seen to be preventing Brexit, even in the Lords, even if they might try some amendments. I think they know the potential risks. The LDs the can do what they like, they are not a factor, numbers wise, if Labour play ball, even if they mess about a bit first.
    Is preventing hard Brexit, or preventing soft Brexit, the same as preventing Brexit?

    Not in my view. While I have a preference, one which may or may not be shared by the majority of the public, in the absence of options on the ballot and in the presence of various reasons for people to vote Leave, as long as Leave, in some form, occurs, then the only definitive expression of the popular will has been met.



    If it looks like the government will go for Norway +, aka Cameron -, will Brexiteers be justified in trying to prevent it?

    I think people are legally free and thus justified in trying to prevent anything, even up to Remaining. I think democratically and politically the latter is far less justifiable, Richmond notwithstanding I see no evidence trying to prevent rather than modulate has much support, but in terms of pushing for Brexit types, I think everyone is free to advocate for their preferred model, and the government justified in taking any of them.

    The Brexit war was won. The Brexit Peace has been ongoing for months and still is. So Hard Brexiters are justified in trying to prevent Soft Brext, and Soft Brexiters are justified trying to prevent Hard Brexit.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited December 2016
    If I read it right, it seems to come down to whether one thinks Parliament needed to state certain things in the 2015 Act to give them effect, or if it was so obvious certain things were needed. as implied by government statements, that the lack of words in the act specifying they did not apply means that they must do.
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    Perhaps the new NutKIP is insufficiently enthusiastic about Aaron's 'rape and murder' strategy for electoral successs.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/805806029481066496
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    kle4 said:

    I do not think the Government will win their case and I do accept the judges will make their decision based on law and not outside influences.

    However, away from the Courts there does seem to be a growing attempt to delay and frustrate A50 by labour and the lib dems. Labour are intent on putting in amendments to the A50 process that will make it impossible for the government to negotiate a deal.

    This morning Diane Abbott absolutely declared that labour want access to the single market and no restriction on free movement of labour. She just doesn't understand how toxic this is for labour but then how can anyone understand Dianne Abbott unless you move in the London left elite circle of out of touch MP's

    I would expect that these attempts to frustrate the process will spark a backlash from not only leavers but many remainers, like myself, who accepted the result and expect the government to serve A50 asap and just get on with it

    I don't know what Labour are planning. Other reports say they do not intend to be seen to be preventing Brexit, even in the Lords, even if they might try some amendments. I think they know the potential risks. The LDs the can do what they like, they are not a factor, numbers wise, if Labour play ball, even if they mess about a bit first.
    Is preventing hard Brexit, or preventing soft Brexit, the same as preventing Brexit?

    If it looks like the government will go for Norway +, aka Cameron -, will Brexiteers be justified in trying to prevent it?
    I think the answer to the possible deal will need to be considered by the HOC and as long as the agreement has access to the single market and permits control of movement, as well as permitting UK to make trade deals of it's own, it will receive widespread support. The middle way has to be the way and those that want a soft or hard Brexit are likely to be disappointed
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,103
    I can't quite parse this sentence. Does Paul Mason really mean what I think he does? :)

    "It’s 25 years since I was last in Russia, trying and failing to revive the left during the chaotic first days of Boris Yeltsin’s economic reforms."
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    The Telegraph: The Austrian election is not a triumph for liberals: far-right European populism is here to stay. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw0rPN5TA
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,103
    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
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    Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,103
    Mason does think highly of himself, doesn't he. He writes as if he were the Jean-Paul Sartre of Manchester.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Surely the answer is simply to look back at the devolution referendum and how it was enacted thereafter?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited December 2016

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Playing devil's advocate, in the absence of anything stating anything other than a simple majority was decisive, as a matter of longstanding convention simple majorities are the norm in Britain? I actually think for matters of sufficient important perhaps there should be thresholds, but in the absence of something specifying one I'd think there would be no need.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Glenn,

    "How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?"

    How about common sense? It's unlikely to be a minority.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    kle4 said:

    Switching back for a moment to the leaked memo about how there needs to be action to stop leaking, what did they think would happen? I can think of few things that would be more likely to be leaked.

    Leaking that one is the best way of communicating it, and was probably deliberate
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.
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    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
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    Irish Examiner: Enda Kenny will 'not oversee another budget' say six Fine Gael ministers. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxOvo5TA
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited December 2016

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
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    Damn and blast, had a splendid reply to Mr. Submarine and it was lost to the ether!

    You shall simply have to imagine the splendid historical rambling, and my comment on the EU probably collapsing during my lifetime with at least civil strife, and possible a small war.

    I wrote this a while ago, but it is relevant:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,103
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Surely the answer is simply to look back at the devolution referendum and how it was enacted thereafter?
    You could argue that the fact that a Scottish independence reference was held set a precedent of self-determination for the Scottish people while would imply a majority would need to be obtained in Scotland in order to give authority to leave the EU.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Meeks, tallow - bad for notes and for candles. Should've used beeswax.

    I'm not sure where vegans stand on beeswax. I know that honey is a subject of hot debate in such circles.
    Sounds like an ordinary dinner party in Primrose Hill.
    There are no ordinary dinner parties in Primrose Hill.
    Where everyone is above average.
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    Mr. Glenn, one could argue that. And one could be slapped across the face with a large haddock for making such a damned silly argument.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,656

    Irish Examiner: Enda Kenny will 'not oversee another budget' say six Fine Gael ministers. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxOvo5TA

    Italy, New Zealand, Ireland. You wait ages for a PM to resign, then three come along at once.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Irish Examiner: Enda Kenny will 'not oversee another budget' say six Fine Gael ministers. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxOvo5TA

    Italy, New Zealand, Ireland. You wait ages for a PM to resign, then three come along at once.
    Sounds like he's being resigned rather than choosing to resign.
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    The Telegraph: The Austrian election is not a triumph for liberals: far-right European populism is here to stay. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw0rPN5TA

    Well maybe, but it wasn't a triumph for Hofer.
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    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,103

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
    If the man on the Clapham omnibus is under 30, he's likely to be a remainer, and if he's over 30 he's a failure, by definition. :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited December 2016

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
    Yes it is, but that does not itself mean it legally happened if it was not specified in the act, whereas the government lawyer was arguing the intention was clear even if it was not specified, so the question becomes was that enough, legally. If previous referendums specified if the result must be brought into law, and how, then it would seem a very simple answer of no it isn't, so I presume the point of law must be more complicated or it will be very easily refuted (or would never have been rejected in the first place). The direction of travel was given over to us, the public, but we were not necessarily, simultaneously, asked to granted authority for it to become law without parliament confirming it. We shall see - as argued, it does sound like the government is saying all referendums should be binding, a principle many will like, but which has not been seen as the case up to now.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,656

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
    Surely t'other way around? The public delegates most decisions to Parliament but chose (by electing a Conservative government with a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum) to keep this decision for themselves.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it

    And that is the problem.

    They delegated the decision, which has been made, and is not disputed by the courts.

    They did not delegate the means or the authority to enact the decision, which they could have done, but didn't.

    The government case appears to be now that they did, because they did not explicitly say that they didn't, which they could have done, but didn't...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited December 2016

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
    Surely t'other way around? The public delegates most decisions to Parliament but chose (by electing a Conservative government with a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum) to keep this decision for themselves.
    Parliament is sovereign, not the people. Isn't that meant to be the difference between us and america - there power flows up from the people, here it flows down from the crown?

    Edit: I'm just teasing. In practice we accept the public are where authority comes from, but when it comes to the technical details of how parliament's power is directed and delegated, that is left to parliament and the courts I'd have thought, as it is too arcane for people to follow otherwise.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Damn and blast, had a splendid reply to Mr. Submarine and it was lost to the ether!

    You shall simply have to imagine the splendid historical rambling, and my comment on the EU probably collapsing during my lifetime with at least civil strife, and possible a small war.

    I wrote this a while ago, but it is relevant:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html

    I like this presentation of Europe's borders over time.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2602799/Amazing-time-lapse-video-shows-constantly-changing-borders-Europe-past-1-000-years-shaped-continent-know-today.html
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    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Playing devil's advocate, in the absence of anything stating anything other than a simple majority was decisive, as a matter of longstanding convention simple majorities are the norm in Britain? I actually think for matters of sufficient important perhaps there should be thresholds, but in the absence of something specifying one I'd think there would be no need.
    "Longstanding convention " Setting aside the fact referendums themselves aren't a long-standing convention in the UK, this was only the third UK level one we've had, the ones we've had have been varied. AV was binding, this one wasn't. The Welsh and Scottish referendums in 1979 were both post legislative AND had minimum turnout thresholds. Which in Scotland's case invalidated the YES result. The 1997 Scots referendum had two questions. Abd it was prelegislative. The Good Friday agreement referendum in Northern Ireland would only have come into effect if it passed in the Republic as well which is a separate sovereign state. At a local level Mayoral referendums, both to create or abolish executive mayoralities, are binding. So do we really have a " longstanding convention " on these issues ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    MTimT said:

    Damn and blast, had a splendid reply to Mr. Submarine and it was lost to the ether!

    You shall simply have to imagine the splendid historical rambling, and my comment on the EU probably collapsing during my lifetime with at least civil strife, and possible a small war.

    I wrote this a while ago, but it is relevant:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html

    I like this presentation of Europe's borders over time.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2602799/Amazing-time-lapse-video-shows-constantly-changing-borders-Europe-past-1-000-years-shaped-continent-know-today.html
    Boy, Germany was a complicated mess for a long time, wasn't it?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Playing devil's advocate, in the absence of anything stating anything other than a simple majority was decisive, as a matter of longstanding convention simple majorities are the norm in Britain? I actually think for matters of sufficient important perhaps there should be thresholds, but in the absence of something specifying one I'd think there would be no need.
    "Longstanding convention " Setting aside the fact referendums themselves aren't a long-standing convention in the UK, this was only the third UK level one we've had, the ones we've had have been varied. AV was binding, this one wasn't. The Welsh and Scottish referendums in 1979 were both post legislative AND had minimum turnout thresholds. Which in Scotland's case invalidated the YES result. The 1997 Scots referendum had two questions. Abd it was prelegislative. The Good Friday agreement referendum in Northern Ireland would only have come into effect if it passed in the Republic as well which is a separate sovereign state. At a local level Mayoral referendums, both to create or abolish executive mayoralities, are binding. So do we really have a " longstanding convention " on these issues ?
    I did say I was playing devil's advocate - I'm interested to see we have had minimum turnout thresholds before. For major things I think they could be a good idea.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/805818393706295297

    And why are they interviewing the ex-leader?

    Where is Paul Nuttals of the UKIPs?
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    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
    If the man on the Clapham omnibus is under 30, he's likely to be a remainer, and if he's over 30 he's a failure, by definition. :)
    Maybe the Clapham bus should be the Harlepool bus
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Is winning defined for elections to the Commons?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    In politics, as in life in general, one side gets more votes than the other side, and unless there is a minimum turnout (or quorum), that's it. They've won. With a Yes or No answer, you can hardly have transferable votes. Or am I missing something?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    edited December 2016
    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    Damn and blast, had a splendid reply to Mr. Submarine and it was lost to the ether!

    You shall simply have to imagine the splendid historical rambling, and my comment on the EU probably collapsing during my lifetime with at least civil strife, and possible a small war.

    I wrote this a while ago, but it is relevant:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html

    I like this presentation of Europe's borders over time.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2602799/Amazing-time-lapse-video-shows-constantly-changing-borders-Europe-past-1-000-years-shaped-continent-know-today.html
    Boy, Germany was a complicated mess for a long time, wasn't it?
    It suited the pre-existing big powers to keep both Germany and Italy fragmented between city states (or small regional ones) for a very long time. Probably not a coincidence that when they finally got together, without any tradition of statehood they were the first two to succumb to fascism.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Government Lawyer getting bit more animated toward the end of the day.

    No gavel either. Disgraceful.

    Judges didn't like his comments about how ordinary people view this process
    Well it was a bit snide, and they did open the day saying they weren't focusing on the politics of Brexit, and the public view will definitely be that, since most of us are not constitutional lawyers. Whether parliament had in essence delegated the decision to the public through their actions was an argument making the same point less bluntly perhaps.
    I think that Parliament delegated the decision to the public is how the man on the Clapham bus will see it
    Surely t'other way around? The public delegates most decisions to Parliament but chose (by electing a Conservative government with a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum) to keep this decision for themselves.
    Not in law.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    Damn and blast, had a splendid reply to Mr. Submarine and it was lost to the ether!

    You shall simply have to imagine the splendid historical rambling, and my comment on the EU probably collapsing during my lifetime with at least civil strife, and possible a small war.

    I wrote this a while ago, but it is relevant:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html

    I like this presentation of Europe's borders over time.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2602799/Amazing-time-lapse-video-shows-constantly-changing-borders-Europe-past-1-000-years-shaped-continent-know-today.html
    Boy, Germany was a complicated mess for a long time, wasn't it?
    Amazing how big and stable Hungary and Poland were for so long.
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    Irish Examiner: Enda Kenny will 'not oversee another budget' say six Fine Gael ministers. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxOvo5TA

    Italy, New Zealand, Ireland. You wait ages for a PM to resign, then three come along at once.
    As long as he's in place on 1 January, that's all I care about. (For £2.60!!)
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    Irish Examiner: Enda Kenny will 'not oversee another budget' say six Fine Gael ministers. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwxOvo5TA

    End a Kenny.

    I'll get me coat.
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    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Is winning defined for elections to the Commons?
    It's the part of the govt argument I don't agree with. The rest of their argument, some new to the Supreme Court, is much more persuasive.
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    Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA


    Do they not have spellcheker?


  • Options
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    @BBCDomC That last govt argument - Parliament would surely not expect a vote on something it's referred to the people - is the simplest put so far


    Has appeal, though I'd have thought that depended on what happened in other referendums, as it would mean all referendums are binding? So if other referendum acts included specific provision to bring the public vote into force, and the 2015 act did not, then surely it was established you need to specify?

    This is the problem as a layman - I could easily accept either side's arguments immediately after hearing them.

    I think the killer argument against that is that the referendum act didn't even define 'winning'. How was anyone to infer for a fact that a simple majority would be decisive?
    Playing devil's advocate, in the absence of anything stating anything other than a simple majority was decisive, as a matter of longstanding convention simple majorities are the norm in Britain? I actually think for matters of sufficient important perhaps there should be thresholds, but in the absence of something specifying one I'd think there would be no need.
    "Longstanding convention " Setting aside the fact referendums themselves aren't a long-standing convention in the UK, this was only the third UK level one we've had, the ones we've had have been varied. AV was binding, this one wasn't. The Welsh and Scottish referendums in 1979 were both post legislative AND had minimum turnout thresholds. Which in Scotland's case invalidated the YES result. The 1997 Scots referendum had two questions. Abd it was prelegislative. The Good Friday agreement referendum in Northern Ireland would only have come into effect if it passed in the Republic as well which is a separate sovereign state. At a local level Mayoral referendums, both to create or abolish executive mayoralities, are binding. So do we really have a " longstanding convention " on these issues ?
    I did say I was playing devil's advocate - I'm interested to see we have had minimum turnout thresholds before. For major things I think they could be a good idea.
    On the old police authorities there was a double majority rule for precept rises. They had to be passed by a majority of all members and councillor members. The Northern Ireland Assembly has double majority rules when " community concern " is invoked. In the first instance there is a super majority needed for an early election under FTPA. Executive Mayors can pass there budgets unkess a *negative* supermajority is excised by Councillors.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA


    Do they not have spellcheker?


    I'm sure they do, but it is a fundamental force of nature on par with electromagnestism that if you are going to make such a statement, you will misspell something.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.
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    Mr. kle4, aye, like correcting people online or if you post a submission for a short story.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    I think most people will settle for the middling option if it is presented.

    I as hoping for some ridiculous LD odds for Sleaford, I'll be honest.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    As I type, the odds have shifted to 1/8 and 9/2. What's happened in the last ten minutes??
  • Options
    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.

  • Options
    Mr. Smithson, must be pretty long odds on that, though.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,496
    Cyclefree said:

    For the benefit of the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the WTW Leavers:

    https://t.co/4ZvLBZNLmE

    "Secondly, it is right to record that at the direction of the court, the registrar has asked all the
    parties involved in these proceedings whether they wish to ask any of the justices to stand down. All parties to the appeal have stated that they have no objection to any of us sitting on this appeal." (bottom of page 1, top of page 2)

    Can we now hear no more about the question of whether any of the judges are inappropriately biased?

    No. Why should what the parties think dictate what any private individual thinks?
    Private individuals can think what they like. But it might be better - just a thought - if they based their opinions on some actual knowledge.

    If the parties thought a judge was biased or had an actual or potential conflict of interest they would be under a duty to bring that to the court's attention. Indeed, the judges themselves should consider in any case whether there is any conflict and, therefore, whether they should recuse themselves. They should certainly be transparent to the parties.

    The fact that this statement has been made should put paid to some of the wilder theories around about the basis for the Court's decision. Whatever the outcome the judgment will consist of legal reasoning, with which others may or may not agree, of course. But that does not mean - without some specific evidence to support this - that the judges will have come to that legal decision because of their personal preference in relation to the question of whether or not the UK should remain in the EU.

    Interpretation of the law is something rather more subtle, intelligent and beautiful than the rather crude ad hominem caricature presented by some of our dimmer journalists.
    Bias is, by its nature, unprovable. But it still exists. Many believe the BBC, an avowedly neutral organisation, to be biased. It's broadcasting staff is heavily skewed toward a left-leaning world view, which is reinforced by the nature of the taxpayer funded organisation. Left wing political outcomes favour BBC workers. You don't need a 'smoking gun' to see that bias may well exist.

    I don't see why judges should be judged any differently.
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    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    I think most people will settle for the middling option if it is presented.

    I as hoping for some ridiculous LD odds for Sleaford, I'll be honest.
    I absolutely think we'll get a true British fudge on the EU. And you know what? People understand. 10% on each side will care enough to argue. The 80% will get on with their lives.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.

    Given UKIP can't even spell the name of the constituency, I'd say that's a long shot :D
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    The dataset for the YouGov favourability polling that appeared first on PB is here
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ncuxzlahef/InternalResults_161130_FavourabilityFigures_W.pdf
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The dataset for the YouGov favourability polling that appeared first on PB is here
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ncuxzlahef/InternalResults_161130_FavourabilityFigures_W.pdf

    Interesting. Jeremy Corbyn IS NOT a drag on the Labour Party. His net approval rating is better than that of the party. You will hear more about this, I am sure.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So apart from T May , no one has a positive net approval rating ? What's wrong with this country or its people ? Even May's will go negative pretty soon when the remnants of a short-lived honeymoon disappears.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    surbiton said:

    The dataset for the YouGov favourability polling that appeared first on PB is here
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ncuxzlahef/InternalResults_161130_FavourabilityFigures_W.pdf

    Interesting. Jeremy Corbyn IS NOT a drag on the Labour Party. His net approval rating is better than that of the party. You will hear more about this, I am sure.
    28/56 vs 29/54? Both equally unpopular it seems.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    The dataset for the YouGov favourability polling that appeared first on PB is here
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ncuxzlahef/InternalResults_161130_FavourabilityFigures_W.pdf

    Interesting. Jeremy Corbyn IS NOT a drag on the Labour Party. His net approval rating is better than that of the party. You will hear more about this, I am sure.
    28/56 vs 29/54? Both equally unpopular it seems.
    -25 vs. -28. Corbyn is winning.
  • Options
    Then there is the time scale issue. The Referendum Act sets no deadline for the government to invoke A50. Or a date when the mandate expires. What happens if May said " we accept the result but we need 5 years to prepare. So it'll be 2021. " She then loses the GE in 2020 but the subsequent Labour government won on note invoking - with 37% of the vote - so the UKIP government elected in 2025 invokes A50 using Prerogative to implement the referendum result. But is that fair after 9 years ?

    Mayoral referendums and Border polls under the GFA are limited to once every seven years.

    Does the absence of any of these checks and balances in the Referendum Act mean parliament didn't want them ? Or does other UK referendum legislation being littered with caveats show you can't assume a winner takes all ?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    I think most people will settle for the middling option if it is presented.

    I as hoping for some ridiculous LD odds for Sleaford, I'll be honest.
    I absolutely think we'll get a true British fudge on the EU. And you know what? People understand. 10% on each side will care enough to argue. The 80% will get on with their lives.
    Agreed.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,496

    Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA


    Do they not have spellcheker?


    Hahah v good.

    But to answer your question, they do have one, but George Osborne is finding his new down-sized role a challenge.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jason said:

    As I type, the odds have shifted to 1/8 and 9/2. What's happened in the last ten minutes??

    A punter put in a fiver ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    The dataset for the YouGov favourability polling that appeared first on PB is here
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ncuxzlahef/InternalResults_161130_FavourabilityFigures_W.pdf

    Interesting. Jeremy Corbyn IS NOT a drag on the Labour Party. His net approval rating is better than that of the party. You will hear more about this, I am sure.
    28/56 vs 29/54? Both equally unpopular it seems.
    -25 vs. -28. Corbyn is winning.
    Margin of error ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Then there is the time scale issue. The Referendum Act sets no deadline for the government to invoke A50. Or a date when the mandate expires. What happens if May said " we accept the result but we need 5 years to prepare. So it'll be 2021.

    No doubt one reason she set an arbitrary date of March next year. God knows how much time would in theory be enough - maybe if we were required to trigger in 4 months we'd have been able to manage it - but setting a date herself ties her political fortunes to it, ensuring it will happen.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Jason said:

    As I type, the odds have shifted to 1/8 and 9/2. What's happened in the last ten minutes??

    A punter put in a fiver ?
    10/1 on UKIP on Betfair exchange.

    Not for me though, more likely to lose deposit.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Then there is the time scale issue. The Referendum Act sets no deadline for the government to invoke A50. Or a date when the mandate expires. What happens if May said " we accept the result but we need 5 years to prepare. So it'll be 2021. " She then loses the GE in 2020 but the subsequent Labour government won on note invoking - with 37% of the vote - so the UKIP government elected in 2025 invokes A50 using Prerogative to implement the referendum result. But is that fair after 9 years ?

    Mayoral referendums and Border polls under the GFA are limited to once every seven years.

    Does the absence of any of these checks and balances in the Referendum Act mean parliament didn't want them ? Or does other UK referendum legislation being littered with caveats show you can't assume a winner takes all ?

    My guess is that it means Mr Cameron & everyone who drafted the Referendum Act hadn't the slightest doubt they'd win a Remain vote. If they didn't think it worth while doing any just-in-case Leave preparation, they certainly wouldn't waste effort on adding bits of legislation that would never be needed.

    (Good evening, everyone)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016

    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    Just had a coffee with an old LD friend who reckons that the best outcome in Sleaford is a UKIP win.

    It would probably mean an early election in May 2017 at which the LDs would be favourites to gain seats like Cambridge, Bath, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham, etc. So I can understand his/her reasoning.
  • Options
    Miss JGP, good evening.

    That's possible, or it could have been deliberate laziness (both with the advisory/binding aspect of the referendum and regarding the lack of any preparatory work) to bugger things up if things went ill. After all, Cameron isn't clearing up any of the mess.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    Sarah Olney took her seat this afternoon. Was led in by Tim Farron and Alistair Carmichael. Interesting that Caroline Lucas gave her a smile just before she was introduced.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Cyclefree said:

    For the benefit of the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the WTW Leavers:

    https://t.co/4ZvLBZNLmE

    "Secondly, it is right to record that at the direction of the court, the registrar has asked all the
    parties involved in these proceedings whether they wish to ask any of the justices to stand down. All parties to the appeal have stated that they have no objection to any of us sitting on this appeal." (bottom of page 1, top of page 2)

    Can we now hear no more about the question of whether any of the judges are inappropriately biased?

    No. Why should what the parties think dictate what any private individual thinks?

    Interpretation of the law is something rather more subtle, intelligent and beautiful than the rather crude ad hominem caricature presented by some of our dimmer journalists.
    Bias is, by its nature, unprovable. But it still exists. Many believe the BBC, an avowedly neutral organisation, to be biased. It's broadcasting staff is heavily skewed toward a left-leaning world view, which is reinforced by the nature of the taxpayer funded organisation. Left wing political outcomes favour BBC workers. You don't need a 'smoking gun' to see that bias may well exist.

    I don't see why judges should be judged any differently.
    You genuinely think bias is unprovable? That seems silly... I mean if you got a Man United fan from the crowd at Old Trafford to referee, and he sent the whole Liverpool team off, and said yes I did it because I hate Liverpool... that would be pretty compelling proof wouldn't it?

    I actually have a lot of sympathy to the idea that we should be sceptical of judges' claims that they are able to remain impartial.

    It's interesting that the idea that law = politics originally stemmed (partly) out of the work of Marxist scholars in the Critical Legal Studies movement.... hardly the natural bedfellows of those using their arguments today!

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Jason said:

    Sleaford by-election odds started at 1/33 for the Tories, and 16/1 for UKIP. Now 1/6 and 7/2. I reckon UKIP could snatch this seat amidst all the Brexit hysteria. It's May's worst nightmare - half the country want hard Brexit, the other want no Brexit at all. The Tories have to choose a side, otherwise they'll end up pissing everyone off. We either leave the EU, totally, or not at all. There is no third way with this.

    UKIP have no chance of winning in Sleaford , Their campaign has no money , few activists on the ground and an awful candidate .
    You can get 10-1 on Betfair if you think differently
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194

    She then loses the GE in 2020 but the subsequent Labour government won on note invoking - with 37% of the vote - so the UKIP government elected in 2025 invokes A50 using Prerogative to implement the referendum result. But is that fair after 9 years ?

    I've wondered about this, my view is, damn right it would be fair. I have no problem whatsoever with the Lib Dems and whoever else continuing to advocate membership of the EU. But we have voted to leave the EU and leave we shall. Now, if the Lib Dems win a general election they are more than welcome to have a referendum on joining the EU. In fact, if they put it in their manifesto, they can take us back in without a referendum.

    If, however, there is a change of government before we leave, then I'm afraid the 2016 referendum is valid until Leave win a GE.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,496
    rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    For the benefit of the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the WTW Leavers:

    https://t.co/4ZvLBZNLmE

    "Secondly, it is right to record that at the direction of the court, the registrar has asked all the
    parties involved in these proceedings whether they wish to ask any of the justices to stand down. All parties to the appeal have stated that they have no objection to any of us sitting on this appeal." (bottom of page 1, top of page 2)

    Can we now hear no more about the question of whether any of the judges are inappropriately biased?

    No. Why should what the parties think dictate what any private individual thinks?

    Interpretation of the law is something rather more subtle, intelligent and beautiful than the rather crude ad hominem caricature presented by some of our dimmer journalists.
    Bias is, by its nature, unprovable. But it still exists. Many believe the BBC, an avowedly neutral organisation, to be biased. It's broadcasting staff is heavily skewed toward a left-leaning world view, which is reinforced by the nature of the taxpayer funded organisation. Left wing political outcomes favour BBC workers. You don't need a 'smoking gun' to see that bias may well exist.

    I don't see why judges should be judged any differently.
    You genuinely think bias is unprovable? That seems silly... I mean if you got a Man United fan from the crowd at Old Trafford to referee, and he sent the whole Liverpool team off, and said yes I did it because I hate Liverpool... that would be pretty compelling proof wouldn't it?

    I actually have a lot of sympathy to the idea that we should be sceptical of judges' claims that they are able to remain impartial.

    It's interesting that the idea that law = politics originally stemmed (partly) out of the work of Marxist scholars in the Critical Legal Studies movement.... hardly the natural bedfellows of those using their arguments today!

    Bias is a mindset. Of course if someone offers a documented confession of their own bias that would be proof. Other than that, your Liverpool fan could deny bias, and you could accuse him of it to high heavens but it would still be a 'conspiracy theory'.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA


    Do they not have spellcheker?


    Hahah v good.

    But to answer your question, they do have one, but George Osborne is finding his new down-sized role a challenge.
    While at the FCO, I was responsible for shepherding through the UK's report on what it had done re ending discrimination against women. The front page of the report came back from the printers with 'Descrimination'. Had to send back all 2000 copies - couldn't have everyone saying 'The FCO doesn't even know how to SPELL discrimination, let alone ..."
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Does anyone know what is going on in Sleaford campaign wise, I haven't even checked who the candidates are.

    You knew a lot about Richmond Park thanks to proximity to the media centres, but has anyone bothered to report from rural lincolshire ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Speedy said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Sleaford campaign wise, I haven't even checked who the candidates are.

    You knew a lot about Richmond Park thanks to proximity to the media centres, but has anyone bothered to report from rural lincolshire ?

    The interest is probably proportional to the chance of an upset.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,496
    edited December 2016
    MTimT said:

    Whoops ! < The Independent: Government response to report demanding immigrants improve English skills misspells 'integration' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwuOmF5jA


    Do they not have spellcheker?


    Hahah v good.

    But to answer your question, they do have one, but George Osborne is finding his new down-sized role a challenge.
    While at the FCO, I was responsible for shepherding through the UK's report on what it had done re ending discrimination against women. The front page of the report came back from the printers with 'Descrimination'. Had to send back all 2000 copies - couldn't have everyone saying 'The FCO doesn't even know how to SPELL discrimination, let alone ..."
    You could have told everyone that the 'i' was too subliminally phallic, whereas the 'e' was a pleasingly ovular nurturing replacement. Extra points.
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    The Referendum Act also made no provision for a tie. And there was no provision for regional or national recounts. Press reports at the time state this didn't matter as it was a pre legislative/advisory referendum.

    @AnneJGP I agree completely. Cameron thought losing was impossible so we got the constitutional equivalent of the Dangerous Dogs Act. Nor was it the House of Lords' finest hour. How did all these ambiguities get passed a revising chamber ? The only reason the Supreme Court is involved imho is because Parliament passed a Dangerous Dogs Breakfast of an Act.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Bias is a mindset. Of course if someone offers a documented confession of their own bias that would be proof. Other than that, your Liverpool fan could deny bias, and you could accuse him of it to high heavens but it would still be a 'conspiracy theory'.

    Systemic bias is observable and measurable for actions repeated many times, as opposed to a one-off decisions (and there I think you are right - for a one-off decision, it is impossible to prove bias).

    For example, if over the course of a game, all the referring errors are in favour for one team, and disadvantage the other, and this pattern recurs each time that referee refs a game between those teams, I think that would serve as 'proof' of bias for all but the tin foilers.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Does anyone know what is going on in Sleaford campaign wise, I haven't even checked who the candidates are.

    You knew a lot about Richmond Park thanks to proximity to the media centres, but has anyone bothered to report from rural lincolshire ?

    The interest is probably proportional to the chance of an upset.
    I agree, UKIP came 3rd there in the last election and the Tories have never got less than 50% since 2001 in that seat.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194

    The Referendum Act also made no provision for a tie. And there was no provision for regional or national recounts. Press reports at the time state this didn't matter as it was a pre legislative/advisory referendum.

    @AnneJGP I agree completely. Cameron thought losing was impossible so we got the constitutional equivalent of the Dangerous Dogs Act. Nor was it the House of Lords' finest hour. How did all these ambiguities get passed a revising chamber ? The only reason the Supreme Court is involved imho is because Parliament passed a Dangerous Dogs Breakfast of an Act.

    The cynic in me says this was Remain's insurance policy.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited December 2016

    The Referendum Act also made no provision for a tie. And there was no provision for regional or national recounts. Press reports at the time state this didn't matter as it was a pre legislative/advisory referendum.

    Do they have to, surely guidance on recounts from the electoral commission is sufficient in such matters? As for ties, are these even legislated for in general, or again, is it an electoral commission matter?
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