Please do. Google, Facebook and IBM have all announced jobs and investment *despite* the vote.
And you were a Brexiter right up until 10 days before the vote.
I remember.
There's a school of thought that all of the US tech investment is happening because of Brexit. It gives US companies a friendly location near Europe with a skilled labour force and relatively flexible visas for skilled workers, but outside of hostile EU jurisdiction. I think over time the City will end up coming to the same conclusion, it's already happening to some degree.
Meh. Sterling was far worse than this against the euro in 2008-2009. It goes up, it goes down. And it's doing precisely what it should do as a macroeconomic shock-absorber. We all knew there'd be a hit from the vote.
As a price for independence and freedom, it's a small price to pay.
You can put that on the bus too.
"BREXIT. IT WILL COST YOU A GRAND EACH. BUT IT'S ONLY MONEY, YEAH?"
You do realise that your constant griping about 'the bus' probably lost you the referendum, don't you?
"OBR estimate that Brexit - as opposed to other changes & policy decisions - adds a cumulative £68bn to borrowing."
What touching faith you have in financial forecasts. I have a friend who'd like to interest you in a sure-fire investment. Guaranteed to make you a fortune. Please send all you bank details.
Seriously, could you acquaint me with a Government forecast in the Autumn statement or Budget that hasn't been amended within months, not years?
Yep. Government optimistically forecasts a deficit of X and it turns out to be X PLUS Y. How often is that forecast unduly PESSIMISTIC and it turns out to be X MINUS Y?
Yes, it's an exercise in "the government are awesome" for the run up to 2020. That 90% debt figure is, IMO, going to feature especially if, as I suspect, net debt reaches about 75% by the end of 2019. Due to the government's policies and a good Brexit deal we've managed to avert disaster, vote for us.
75% is a bit optimstic for three years away.
We're at (what) 88% now. If we assume an average deficit of 2% of GDP, then we get to add 6% to 94%. But then we have to divide by 1.045 three times to simulate 4.5% nominal GDP growth. So, 82% at end of 2019.
Mr. Royale, sticking with the theme of not listening to voters, the foreign aid budget is the most obvious and easiest thing to cut [and legislating for a certain percentage of GDP to be spent is demented].
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
I'd be very surprised if the final figure was anywhere near that high, this EFO looks like an exercise in arse covering by the OBR. Positive revisions are very easy for the government to handle because it makes them look good.
"OBR estimate that Brexit - as opposed to other changes & policy decisions - adds a cumulative £68bn to borrowing."
What touching faith you have in financial forecasts. I have a friend who'd like to interest you in a sure-fire investment. Guaranteed to make you a fortune. Please send all you bank details.
Seriously, could you acquaint me with a Government forecast in the Autumn statement or Budget that hasn't been amended within months, not years?
Yep. Government optimistically forecasts a deficit of X and it turns out to be X PLUS Y. How often is that forecast unduly PESSIMISTIC and it turns out to be X MINUS Y?
Yes, it's an exercise in "the government are awesome" for the run up to 2020. That 90% debt figure is, IMO, going to feature especially if, as I suspect, net debt reaches about 75% by the end of 2019. Due to the government's policies and a good Brexit deal we've managed to avert disaster, vote for us.
75% is a bit optimstic for three years away.
We're at (what) 88% now. If we assume an average deficit of 2% of GDP, then we get to add 6% to 94%. But then we have to divide by 1.045 three times to simulate 4.5% nominal GDP growth. So, 82% at end of 2019.
84% currently, so about 78-79%.
Bloomberg has it at 89.1% as of 30 June.
The PSF release from yesterday had it at 84% and falling.
Please do. Google, Facebook and IBM have all announced jobs and investment *despite* the vote.
And you were a Brexiter right up until 10 days before the vote.
I remember.
There's a school of thought that all of the US tech investment is happening because of Brexit. It gives US companies a friendly location near Europe with a skilled labour force and relatively flexible visas for skilled workers, but outside of hostile EU jurisdiction. I think over time the City will end up coming to the same conclusion, it's already happening to some degree.
I don't think we'll be any poorer at all over the longer-term. I'd say the tipping point would be around 2030.
"OBR estimate that Brexit - as opposed to other changes & policy decisions - adds a cumulative £68bn to borrowing."
What touching faith you have in financial forecasts. I have a friend who'd like to interest you in a sure-fire investment. Guaranteed to make you a fortune. Please send all you bank details.
Seriously, could you acquaint me with a Government forecast in the Autumn statement or Budget that hasn't been amended within months, not years?
Yep. Government optimistically forecasts a deficit of X and it turns out to be X PLUS Y. How often is that forecast unduly PESSIMISTIC and it turns out to be X MINUS Y?
Yes, it's an exercise in "the government are awesome" for the run up to 2020. That 90% debt figure is, IMO, going to feature especially if, as I suspect, net debt reaches about 75% by the end of 2019. Due to the government's policies and a good Brexit deal we've managed to avert disaster, vote for us.
75% is a bit optimstic for three years away.
We're at (what) 88% now. If we assume an average deficit of 2% of GDP, then we get to add 6% to 94%. But then we have to divide by 1.045 three times to simulate 4.5% nominal GDP growth. So, 82% at end of 2019.
84% currently, so about 78-79%.
Bloomberg has it at 89.1% as of 30 June.
The PSF release from yesterday had it at 84% and falling.
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
I'd be very surprised if the final figure was anywhere near that high, this EFO looks like an exercise in arse covering by the OBR. Positive revisions are very easy for the government to handle because it makes them look good.
As I joked last night, economists and economic forecasts were put on the Earth to make opinion pollsters and opinion polls look good.
It will come down to if Mrs May is able to stop us falling down that cliff edge.
Economics isn't my forte so I have to rely on others, the most interesting thing I've heard from Brexit was from Leaver a few months ago, 'If we do go hard Brexit/WTO, then Cameron & Remain were low balling the impact of Brexit'
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
Thing is a rise in interest rates to say 3% or so would wipe nigh on a £Trillion off pension liabilities. That's real money not all this dicking about with mere £billions.......
Please do. Google, Facebook and IBM have all announced jobs and investment *despite* the vote.
And you were a Brexiter right up until 10 days before the vote.
I remember.
There's a school of thought that all of the US tech investment is happening because of Brexit. It gives US companies a friendly location near Europe with a skilled labour force and relatively flexible visas for skilled workers, but outside of hostile EU jurisdiction. I think over time the City will end up coming to the same conclusion, it's already happening to some degree.
It's just confirmation of investment that had already been earmarked. If anything the significant trend is away from the M4 corridor style presence towards more high-profile offices in major cities. Tech is the new finance in that respect.
"OBR estimate that Brexit - as opposed to other changes & policy decisions - adds a cumulative £68bn to borrowing."
What touching faith you have in financial forecasts. I have a friend who'd like to interest you in a sure-fire investment. Guaranteed to make you a fortune. Please send all you bank details.
Seriously, could you acquaint me with a Government forecast in the Autumn statement or Budget that hasn't been amended within months, not years?
Yep. Government optimistically forecasts a deficit of X and it turns out to be X PLUS Y. How often is that forecast unduly PESSIMISTIC and it turns out to be X MINUS Y?
Yes, it's an exercise in "the government are awesome" for the run up to 2020. That 90% debt figure is, IMO, going to feature especially if, as I suspect, net debt reaches about 75% by the end of 2019. Due to the government's policies and a good Brexit deal we've managed to avert disaster, vote for us.
75% is a bit optimstic for three years away.
We're at (what) 88% now. If we assume an average deficit of 2% of GDP, then we get to add 6% to 94%. But then we have to divide by 1.045 three times to simulate 4.5% nominal GDP growth. So, 82% at end of 2019.
84% currently, so about 78-79%.
Bloomberg has it at 89.1% as of 30 June.
The PSF release from yesterday had it at 84% and falling.
Fair enough
I just brought it up, 83.8%. I think it's a difference in measurement standards. Under Maastricht I think 89.1% is correct.
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
Thing is a rise in interest rates to say 3% or so would wipe nigh on a £Trillion off pension liabilities. That's real money not all this dicking about with mere £billions.......
But it would also knock trillions of the value of pension fund assets as bond portfolios were marked down.
Mr. Eagles, in such an event, if it's seen as the EU's fault then it may not harm May.
On a related note, complaints about Nissan etc getting state aid (effectively) might not cause any harm, simply because people will think that the bankers got bailed out, so why not support the manufacturers.
[Not saying I agree with that stance, incidentally, just suggesting a potential scenario].
Also, leaving the EU (if we do) alters our long term position. If, over a century, the situation is better than remaining then taking a short term hit for long term advantage makes perfect sense. A man saving for his first house deposit will not have as many nights out as a man frittering his cash away. But in 30 years' time, only one of them will have a house.
I don't know which of my posts you are replying to, so I'll assume it's the one about the cost of Brexit. Yes, you make a valid point and a good argument[1] My point - and the reason for my twitting of the Leavers - is that this argument was not made during the debate.
[1] although I do need to point out that a 100 year planning horizon is unrealistic...
Please do. Google, Facebook and IBM have all announced jobs and investment *despite* the vote.
And you were a Brexiter right up until 10 days before the vote.
I remember.
There's a school of thought that all of the US tech investment is happening because of Brexit. It gives US companies a friendly location near Europe with a skilled labour force and relatively flexible visas for skilled workers, but outside of hostile EU jurisdiction. I think over time the City will end up coming to the same conclusion, it's already happening to some degree.
I still don't think Brexit will be an economic catastrophe, but lack of investment is the concern as it has a long term debilitating effect. The (maybe?) slightly odd thing is that research investment has been relatively less affected although it is dependent on freedom of movement being retained, while trade related investment definitely has been hit. And that relates the to the much vaunted Britain "open for business".
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
Mr. Eagles, in such an event, if it's seen as the EU's fault then it may not harm May.
On a related note, complaints about Nissan etc getting state aid (effectively) might not cause any harm, simply because people will think that the bankers got bailed out, so why not support the manufacturers.
[Not saying I agree with that stance, incidentally, just suggesting a potential scenario].
If the Government has aided Nissan, then pretty much other every business will be demanding the same, and threatening to Leave if they don't get the same.
Mr. Code, politicians have an understandable, if disappointing, habit of short-termism. Mind you, if the electorate and media took a longer view, so would politicians.
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
I'd be very surprised if the final figure was anywhere near that high, this EFO looks like an exercise in arse covering by the OBR. Positive revisions are very easy for the government to handle because it makes them look good.
As I joked last night, economists and economic forecasts were put on the Earth to make opinion pollsters and opinion polls look good.
It will come down to if Mrs May is able to stop us falling down that cliff edge.
Economics isn't my forte so I have to rely on others, the most interesting thing I've heard from Brexit was from Leaver a few months ago, 'If we do go hard Brexit/WTO, then Cameron & Remain were low balling the impact of Brexit'
If it is WTO and no goods agreement then it would be a tough 8-10 years for UK industry.
On the politics. The OBR have just made the cliff look like jumping off the edge of the Grand Canyon. When the real world shows a gentle walk through some hilly terrain the PM and chancellor will look pretty good. Handy that it will become clear in the Autumn 2019 budget!
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
Please do. Google, Facebook and IBM have all announced jobs and investment *despite* the vote.
And you were a Brexiter right up until 10 days before the vote.
I remember.
There's a school of thought that all of the US tech investment is happening because of Brexit. It gives US companies a friendly location near Europe with a skilled labour force and relatively flexible visas for skilled workers, but outside of hostile EU jurisdiction. I think over time the City will end up coming to the same conclusion, it's already happening to some degree.
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
"OBR estimate that Brexit - as opposed to other changes & policy decisions - adds a cumulative £68bn to borrowing."
What touching faith you have in financial forecasts. I have a friend who'd like to interest you in a sure-fire investment. Guaranteed to make you a fortune. Please send all you bank details.
Seriously, could you acquaint me with a Government forecast in the Autumn statement or Budget that hasn't been amended within months, not years?
Yep. Government optimistically forecasts a deficit of X and it turns out to be X PLUS Y. How often is that forecast unduly PESSIMISTIC and it turns out to be X MINUS Y?
Yes, it's an exercise in "the government are awesome" for the run up to 2020. That 90% debt figure is, IMO, going to feature especially if, as I suspect, net debt reaches about 75% by the end of 2019. Due to the government's policies and a good Brexit deal we've managed to avert disaster, vote for us.
75% is a bit optimstic for three years away.
We're at (what) 88% now. If we assume an average deficit of 2% of GDP, then we get to add 6% to 94%. But then we have to divide by 1.045 three times to simulate 4.5% nominal GDP growth. So, 82% at end of 2019.
84% currently, so about 78-79%.
Bloomberg has it at 89.1% as of 30 June.
The PSF release from yesterday had it at 84% and falling.
Fair enough
I just brought it up, 83.8%. I think it's a difference in measurement standards. Under Maastricht I think 89.1% is correct.
Maastricht criteria put it at 87.8% as of the last published data in March due to different centring of GDP value.
"General government gross debt was £1,651.9 billion at the end of the financial year ending March 2016 (87.8% of GDP), an increase of £47.9 billion compared with the end of March 2015 (when it was 87.4% of GDP)."
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
Thing is a rise in interest rates to say 3% or so would wipe nigh on a £Trillion off pension liabilities. That's real money not all this dicking about with mere £billions.......
But it would also knock trillions of the value of pension fund assets as bond portfolios were marked down.
Yes, but in my experience (ie the fund I'm involved with), we'd gain more on the swings of better discount rates than it lost on the roundabouts of falling bond prices. Big style.
Although 2017 might be more relevant in the context of the Brexit vote. IMF forecasts are:
United States 2.2 Euro Area 1.5 Germany 1.4 France 1.3 Italy 0.9 Spain 2.2 Japan 0.6 United Kingdom 1.1 Canada 1.9
Who knows what those numbers will actually be? My only forecast would be that the world will not turn out like the IMF predicts.
Maybe, but if you are using figures to promote Brexit success, it seems appropriate to use figures for the time after the decision was made. The basic prediction made by IMF and others is that growth will be less than it would otherwise be. In a relative benign period for the world economy this won't necessarily mean Britain will enter a recession. Depending on your point of view that could be an acceptable price to pay or an unacceptable price to pay, but it's not likely to be either a disaster or an improvement.
Please do. Google, Facebook and IBM have all announced jobs and investment *despite* the vote.
And you were a Brexiter right up until 10 days before the vote.
I remember.
There's a school of thought that all of the US tech investment is happening because of Brexit. It gives US companies a friendly location near Europe with a skilled labour force and relatively flexible visas for skilled workers, but outside of hostile EU jurisdiction. I think over time the City will end up coming to the same conclusion, it's already happening to some degree.
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
Google's £1bn investment was disclosed in 2013 and then they went back to the drawing board in 2015 because Larry Page wanted something monumental that would stand for 100 years. It's not something new because of Brexit.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say: 1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote. 2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them. 3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.
Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.
Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign
Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.
Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.
And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.
Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.
Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.
He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I feel a forum bet coming on.
I'll have £50 at whatever the current Betfair lay price is for him, or 6-4 "with a run" in 2020.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
Hope it wasn't anything too serious for you today.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
A high viz is the real world invisibility cloak. Put one on and walk around an industrial site and everyone assumes you have a purpose being there so "must" be OK.
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
I do wonder whether his support base will survive contact with reality. It's one thing advocating two contradictory policies at different times to different groups (or even the same one); it's another thing governing in reality with all the grubbiness of pork-barrelling, compromise and quid pro quos.
My expectation of a bad defeat is mainly because I think he'll fail on the standard metrics of being a good president. That might be a mistake - Trump is not a standard president - but for now I'll stick to the view that it's not, while keeping it under review.
Trump only just won this year against a weak Democrat candidate. It's rare for any party to lose the White House on a first defence and as a rule presidents seeking a second term gain support. All the same, Trump is likely to need to add to what he achieved this year if he's to win in 2020.
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
Possibly, possibly not. The ongoing tendency to move stuff to the cloud has implications for data protection. Leaving will require cloud servers to be located in the UK instead of - say - US, Spain or Ireland and that has cost implications. This process is already underway. It also has implications wrt the GDPR - it will come in preLeaveDay
However, if we are lucky, we will get rid of that bloody cookie consent thing, which bugs the heck out of me.
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
Possibly, possibly not. The ongoing tendency to move stuff to the cloud has implications for data protection. Leaving will require cloud servers to be located in the UK instead of - say - US, Spain or Ireland and that has cost implications. This process is already underway. It also has implications wrt the GDPR - it will come in preLeaveDay
However, if we are lucky, we will get rid of that bloody cookie consent thing, which bugs the heck out of me.
The cookie consent law must be one of the most stupid pointless irritating annoying meaningless dumb laws of the modern area.
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
I do wonder whether his support base will survive contact with reality. It's one thing advocating two contradictory policies at different times to different groups (or even the same one); it's another thing governing in reality with all the grubbiness of pork-barrelling, compromise and quid pro quos.
My expectation of a bad defeat is mainly because I think he'll fail on the standard metrics of being a good president. That might be a mistake - Trump is not a standard president - but for now I'll stick to the view that it's not, while keeping it under review.
Trump only just won this year against a weak Democrat candidate. It's rare for any party to lose the White House on a first defence and as a rule presidents seeking a second term gain support. All the same, Trump is likely to need to add to what he achieved this year if he's to win in 2020.
There's an interesting set of videos on the BBC News site with Trump voters in Lucerne County PA, which flipped Obama/Trump. Boiled down, they think Trump has a "can-do" attitude and they believe America needs to be run in a more business-like way. Make the trains run on time, so to speak. Only one person mentioned immigration and no-one mentioned social conservative issues.
On the whole they come across as moderate, although perhaps unrealistic about abolishing Obamacare to get their healthcare premiums down.
Let me give you a clue: I don't give a f*ck about this.
It's hilarious how Leavers keep trying to troll Remainers with this, as if each and every one actually gives a shit.
But I'm astonished a Thatcherite doesn't find a near £60 billion increase in the deficit neither profound or shocking.
Thing is a rise in interest rates to say 3% or so would wipe nigh on a £Trillion off pension liabilities. That's real money not all this dicking about with mere £billions.......
But it would also knock trillions of the value of pension fund assets as bond portfolios were marked down.
Do you think we can sue the government for mis-selling because they are forcing pension funds to buy overpriced government debt?
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
Possibly, possibly not. The ongoing tendency to move stuff to the cloud has implications for data protection. Leaving will require cloud servers to be located in the UK instead of - say - US, Spain or Ireland and that has cost implications. This process is already underway. It also has implications wrt the GDPR - it will come in preLeaveDay
However, if we are lucky, we will get rid of that bloody cookie consent thing, which bugs the heck out of me.
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
Possibly, possibly not. The ongoing tendency to move stuff to the cloud has implications for data protection. Leaving will require cloud servers to be located in the UK instead of - say - US, Spain or Ireland and that has cost implications. This process is already underway. It also has implications wrt the GDPR - it will come in preLeaveDay
However, if we are lucky, we will get rid of that bloody cookie consent thing, which bugs the heck out of me.
The cookie consent law must be one of the most stupid pointless irritating annoying meaningless dumb laws of the modern area.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
When my Dad was in hospital a few years ago I turned up in a suit and asked to see his diagnostics. Apparently they thought I was a doctor!
(Even more worrying there was only one parameter out of the normal range... that was the parameter that explained his unidentified illness. And I was the first person to notice it!)
I think we might do very well by being outside both the US and EU internet and data rules.
Possibly, possibly not. The ongoing tendency to move stuff to the cloud has implications for data protection. Leaving will require cloud servers to be located in the UK instead of - say - US, Spain or Ireland and that has cost implications. This process is already underway. It also has implications wrt the GDPR - it will come in preLeaveDay
However, if we are lucky, we will get rid of that bloody cookie consent thing, which bugs the heck out of me.
The issue is more the other way. We won't be able to process data from the EU unless we are part of its data protection laws. As a country that exports a lot of services that's a big issue.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
Hope it wasn't anything too serious for you today.
BTW I completed doing the Sheffield Supertram on Monday, by doing the Meadowhall section - but it was atrociously wet and windy weather!
Friday afternoon was so much better, when I did the Malin Bridge and Middlewood branches (Halfway and Herdings Park were done back in September).
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
Hope it wasn't anything too serious for you today.
BTW I completed doing the Sheffield Supertram on Monday, by doing the Meadowhall section - but it was atrociously wet and windy weather!
Friday afternoon was so much better, when I did the Malin Bridge and Middlewood branches (Halfway and Herdings Park were done back in September).
SuperTram was shut between Herdings and Cathederal late afternoon Monday you were lucky not to get trapped. I managed to get stuck in a Selby Pub due to flood alert.
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
I do wonder whether his support base will survive contact with reality. It's one thing advocating two contradictory policies at different times to different groups (or even the same one); it's another thing governing in reality with all the grubbiness of pork-barrelling, compromise and quid pro quos.
My expectation of a bad defeat is mainly because I think he'll fail on the standard metrics of being a good president. That might be a mistake - Trump is not a standard president - but for now I'll stick to the view that it's not, while keeping it under review.
Trump only just won this year against a weak Democrat candidate. It's rare for any party to lose the White House on a first defence and as a rule presidents seeking a second term gain support. All the same, Trump is likely to need to add to what he achieved this year if he's to win in 2020.
Also it's difficult to present yourself as an insurgent who will 'drain the swamp' when you and your party have been running things for four years.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
Hope it wasn't anything too serious for you today.
BTW I completed doing the Sheffield Supertram on Monday, by doing the Meadowhall section - but it was atrociously wet and windy weather!
Friday afternoon was so much better, when I did the Malin Bridge and Middlewood branches (Halfway and Herdings Park were done back in September).
My family was to stay inside Meadowhall on Monday and not drive out.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
True but more will think your a health tourist and ask for your passport, due to Tory dog whistle politics
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
True but more will think your a health tourist and ask for your passport, due to Tory dog whistle politics
My sister who has been referred to a specialist cancer hospital has been asked to provide two forms of identification. The only people who have anything to worry about are those who are not entitled to care in the first place. And liberal types who think the NHS is an international health service.
Utterly OT, but I'm a fair way into my first XCOM 2 playthrough. Some bugs, but the classes (not tried Psi yet) are very well-balanced, the gameplay's excellent and the difficulty, even on the default and as someone who played XCOM: Enemy Unknown quite a bit, is steep.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
True but more will think your a health tourist and ask for your passport, due to Tory dog whistle politics
Indeed, I'm still reeling from my experience a few months ago at the pharmacy, when someone didn't like I had a card that means I don't pay for my prescriptions.
Good to see the Lib Dems are still pursuing the "you can't trust us" vote:
Central to Ms Olney’s campaign is a “clear pledge” to halt Brexit. “We don’t believe even a soft Brexit would be right,” she said. But her stance has been confused by the emergence of a blog, in which she wrote: “Britain is leaving the EU — OK, I accept that. I don’t think we should re-run the referendum.”
Asked if she had changed her mind, she insisted: “I wrote that much longer than a month ago. I think people are getting a bit confused.”
When challenged with a printout showing that her words were written on October 14, Ms Olney said: “No, no, no,” but then added: “I don’t know.”
Utterly OT, but I'm a fair way into my first XCOM 2 playthrough. Some bugs, but the classes (not tried Psi yet) are very well-balanced, the gameplay's excellent and the difficulty, even on the default and as someone who played XCOM: Enemy Unknown quite a bit, is steep.
XCOM 2 is on my list after I exhaust Civilization VI (which sadly won't take long) and complete the main story in Pokémon Moon, which I picked up today.
I played XCOM: Enemy Unknown earlier in the year and it's the first game in a while that really blew me away with quite how good it was.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
True but more will think your a health tourist and ask for your passport, due to Tory dog whistle politics
Indeed, I'm still reeling from my experience a few months ago at the pharmacy, when someone didn't like I had a card that means I don't pay for my prescriptions.
Shhh, we're not supposed to talk about that aspect of Party membership.
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
I do wonder whether his support base will survive contact with reality. It's one thing advocating two contradictory policies at different times to different groups (or even the same one); it's another thing governing in reality with all the grubbiness of pork-barrelling, compromise and quid pro quos.
My expectation of a bad defeat is mainly because I think he'll fail on the standard metrics of being a good president. That might be a mistake - Trump is not a standard president - but for now I'll stick to the view that it's not, while keeping it under review.
Trump only just won this year against a weak Democrat candidate. It's rare for any party to lose the White House on a first defence and as a rule presidents seeking a second term gain support. All the same, Trump is likely to need to add to what he achieved this year if he's to win in 2020.
Also it's difficult to present yourself as an insurgent who will 'drain the swamp' when you and your party have been running things for four years.
You'd think a Billionaire socialite who's glad handed politicians of all stripes would have difficulty presenting themselves as a insurgent full stop.
I think that's the point of the pressthink article, Trump has forecfully presented and alternative take on reality which his supporters have unquestionably accepted. There is not "meeting reality", they exist in Trump's reality.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
When my Dad was in hospital a few years ago I turned up in a suit and asked to see his diagnostics. Apparently they thought I was a doctor!
(Even more worrying there was only one parameter out of the normal range... that was the parameter that explained his unidentified illness. And I was the first person to notice it!)
When my son broke his arm as a young child I had to rush over to the hospital wearing a suit. The problem is that I have a very bad problem with bones (blood and guts, not a problem) and especially broken ones. Just thinking about them makes me queasy. So, anyway, I got into A&E in my suit and the staff showed me an X-ray in the waiting room. I took one look at it and fainted!!! All those waiting for treatment thought I was a doctor. It makes me laugh now. It was very humiliating at the time.
Mr. Essexit, you may be surprised by how tricky XCOM 2 is to get the hang of initially (and, if you're an idiot [ahem], this won't be helped by forgetting explosives make cars explode which is unhelpful if your whole squad is clustered around one...).
Still on my first playthrough, but they've managed to improve the story aspect whilst at the same time making it less linear (you might have 3-4 storyline objectives at a given time).
Load times are irksome and I have had a couple of crashes. I'd also avoid the free DLC you might get, as it's bugged and some items (ski mask definitely, not checked all the rest) prevent characters from being used/modified.
That aside, it's a very well-balanced game. I'll probably be doing multiple playthroughs.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
But not the CofE, presumably, given Hammond is less of a fan of the Hi Vis?
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
But not the CofE, presumably, given Hammond is less of a fan of the Hi Vis?
It was either patient transport or security that people think I am. Nothing posh like a Dr. It's the perils of going straight from work.
Mr. Essexit, np. It's only a cosmetic thing for extra customisation options (and there are already a lot). If I have the patience, I'll try an exhaustive check of extra stuff to see what's bugged and what isn't, for when I review it. I've got the PS4 version, but my understanding is the bug exists on PC too.
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
I think there has been a (gradually coming and now here) sea change in how the American public, especially the right leaning public, view their politicians and that Trump could 180 on every single policy and still go into 2020 projecting himself as a winner which will be accepted by a significant proportion of the population.
Frank shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
I do wonder whether his support base will survive contact with reality. It's one thing advocating two contradictory policies at different times to different groups (or even the same one); it's another thing governing in reality with all the grubbiness of pork-barrelling, compromise and quid pro quos.
My review.
Trump only just won this year against a weak Democrat candidate. It's rare for any party to lose the White House on a first defence and as a rule presidents seeking a second term gain support. All the same, Trump is likely to need to add to what he achieved this year if he's to win in 2020.
Also it's difficult to present yourself as an insurgent who will 'drain the swamp' when you and your party have been running things for four years.
You'd think a Billionaire socialite who's glad handed politicians of all stripes would have difficulty presenting themselves as a insurgent full stop.
I think that's the point of the pressthink article, Trump has forecfully presented and alternative take on reality which his supporters have unquestionably accepted. There is not "meeting reality", they exist in Trump's reality.
He won on an exceptionally low vote percentage. His big danger in 2020 will be turnout if things have not gone well. What he has on his side, though, is a complete lack of inhibition about stigmatising/launching a cultural war against whatever minority he thinks it would be most advantageous to attack.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
If you're an Asian heritage chap in a suit and you attend a hospital appointments, numerous people will also confuse you as a Doctor.
True but more will think your a health tourist and ask for your passport, due to Tory dog whistle politics
Indeed, I'm still reeling from my experience a few months ago at the pharmacy, when someone didn't like I had a card that means I don't pay for my prescriptions.
Shhh, we're not supposed to talk about that aspect of Party membership.
Heaven alone knows what they'd make of the use of the free dacha in Bronte county.....
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
When my Dad was in hospital a few years ago I turned up in a suit and asked to see his diagnostics. Apparently they thought I was a doctor!
(Even more worrying there was only one parameter out of the normal range... that was the parameter that explained his unidentified illness. And I was the first person to notice it!)
When my son broke his arm as a young child I had to rush over to the hospital wearing a suit. The problem is that I have a very bad problem with bones (blood and guts, not a problem) and especially broken ones. Just thinking about them makes me queasy. So, anyway, I got into A&E in my suit and the staff showed me an X-ray in the waiting room. I took one look at it and fainted!!! All those waiting for treatment thought I was a doctor. It makes me laugh now. It was very humiliating at the time.
How odd, never heard of someone who was squeamish about bones before.
Nate Cohen and Nate Silver both think the discrepancies between results in counties using machines and paper ballots are what would be expected on demographic grounds.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
But not the CofE, presumably, given Hammond is less of a fan of the Hi Vis?
It was either patient transport or security that people think I am. Nothing posh like a Dr. It's the perils of going straight from work.
I'm usually in a suit when I go for my routine hospital appointments. I've never been mistaken for a doctor, but I have been mistaken for a pharmacy rep.
It's harder to pass for a doctor these days as apart from surgeons they don't wear suits and ties any more, except for private work. Even stethoscopes are on the way out and white coats went years ago. Pity really, it means the plot of 'Paper Mask' wouldn't work now.
Afternoon all. One thing that I have discovered today is that if you attended a hospital appointment while wearing a hi viz coat. Numerous people will confuse you as a member of staff from the moment you arrive.
When my Dad was in hospital a few years ago I turned up in a suit and asked to see his diagnostics. Apparently they thought I was a doctor!
(Even more worrying there was only one parameter out of the normal range... that was the parameter that explained his unidentified illness. And I was the first person to notice it!)
When my son broke his arm as a young child I had to rush over to the hospital wearing a suit. The problem is that I have a very bad problem with bones (blood and guts, not a problem) and especially broken ones. Just thinking about them makes me queasy. So, anyway, I got into A&E in my suit and the staff showed me an X-ray in the waiting room. I took one look at it and fainted!!! All those waiting for treatment thought I was a doctor. It makes me laugh now. It was very humiliating at the time.
How odd, never heard of someone who was squeamish about bones before.
Comments
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/1
@BethRigby: At #OBR briefing. Lower productivity; weaker economy; lower tax receipts; rising inflation; weaker pound; "consumers will feel the squeeze"
You played right into Cummings' hands.
United States 2.2
Euro Area 1.5
Germany 1.4
France 1.3
Italy 0.9
Spain 2.2
Japan 0.6
United Kingdom 1.1
Canada 1.9
I just enjoy stirring the Remainer's thin gruel.
Right, I'm off. Work to do.
because a politician would never get all his bad news in first just to look a hero at election time when things are better
https://twitter.com/privateeyenews/status/796389439140413441
It will come down to if Mrs May is able to stop us falling down that cliff edge.
Economics isn't my forte so I have to rely on others, the most interesting thing I've heard from Brexit was from Leaver a few months ago, 'If we do go hard Brexit/WTO, then Cameron & Remain were low balling the impact of Brexit'
On a related note, complaints about Nissan etc getting state aid (effectively) might not cause any harm, simply because people will think that the bankers got bailed out, so why not support the manufacturers.
[Not saying I agree with that stance, incidentally, just suggesting a potential scenario].
[1] although I do need to point out that a 100 year planning horizon is unrealistic...
Frank Luntz spent time doing focus groups during the Republican Primary and his main take away message was that you could present any policy position as a Trump position including a complete reversal of an earlier Trump position and the Trump supporters would accept it as right. Nothing could dent the Trump shield.
I posted an article yesterday that I think is fascinating about how the American press has completely failed to understand and report on what has been happening over the last decade or so and ended up feeding the dragon
http://pressthink.org/2016/11/miss-bigger-missed-story-final-reflections-trump-press-2016/
No that can;t be true, because it violates a central Remainer Law.
Britain Can Not Be A More Attractive Place For Any Company To Invest After Brexit Than Before It.
On the politics. The OBR have just made the cliff look like jumping off the edge of the Grand Canyon. When the real world shows a gentle walk through some hilly terrain the PM and chancellor will look pretty good. Handy that it will become clear in the Autumn 2019 budget!
"General government gross debt was £1,651.9 billion at the end of the financial year ending March 2016 (87.8% of GDP), an increase of £47.9 billion compared with the end of March 2015 (when it was 87.4% of GDP)."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/aprtojune2016
Yebbut those buses are two completely different models!
Ubergeekery OFF
https://twitter.com/JonScammell/status/801420223555522560
Incidentally, I haven't met Dominic Cummings but I have (briefly) met Matthew Elliot. He's pretty smart and quite analytical.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mps-broke-election-laws-7467576
Its what the people of Sunderland voted for!
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/01/google-new-london-headquarters
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2950181/Google-scraps-boring-plans-London-HQ-Internet-giant-s-boss-Larry-Page-orders-architects-design-building-worthy-standing-100-years.html
I'll have £50 at whatever the current Betfair lay price is for him, or 6-4 "with a run" in 2020.
Hope it wasn't anything too serious for you today.
I do wonder whether his support base will survive contact with reality. It's one thing advocating two contradictory policies at different times to different groups (or even the same one); it's another thing governing in reality with all the grubbiness of pork-barrelling, compromise and quid pro quos.
My expectation of a bad defeat is mainly because I think he'll fail on the standard metrics of being a good president. That might be a mistake - Trump is not a standard president - but for now I'll stick to the view that it's not, while keeping it under review.
Trump only just won this year against a weak Democrat candidate. It's rare for any party to lose the White House on a first defence and as a rule presidents seeking a second term gain support. All the same, Trump is likely to need to add to what he achieved this year if he's to win in 2020.
However, if we are lucky, we will get rid of that bloody cookie consent thing, which bugs the heck out of me.
http://www.cityam.com/254185/khan-aide-has-just-blocked-london-assembly-members-grilling
'self imposed year long recession'
The cookie consent law must be one of the most stupid pointless irritating annoying meaningless dumb laws of the modern area.
On the whole they come across as moderate, although perhaps unrealistic about abolishing Obamacare to get their healthcare premiums down.
(Even more worrying there was only one parameter out of the normal range... that was the parameter that explained his unidentified illness. And I was the first person to notice it!)
Friday afternoon was so much better, when I did the Malin Bridge and Middlewood branches (Halfway and Herdings Park were done back in September).
Central to Ms Olney’s campaign is a “clear pledge” to halt Brexit. “We don’t believe even a soft Brexit would be right,” she said. But her stance has been confused by the emergence of a blog, in which she wrote: “Britain is leaving the EU — OK, I accept that. I don’t think we should re-run the referendum.”
Asked if she had changed her mind, she insisted: “I wrote that much longer than a month ago. I think people are getting a bit confused.”
When challenged with a printout showing that her words were written on October 14, Ms Olney said: “No, no, no,” but then added: “I don’t know.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/lib-dem-sarah-olney-beating-zac-goldsmith-in-a-byelection-would-be-a-brexit-gamechanger-a3402501.html
I played XCOM: Enemy Unknown earlier in the year and it's the first game in a while that really blew me away with quite how good it was.
I think that's the point of the pressthink article, Trump has forecfully presented and alternative take on reality which his supporters have unquestionably accepted. There is not "meeting reality", they exist in Trump's reality.
Still on my first playthrough, but they've managed to improve the story aspect whilst at the same time making it less linear (you might have 3-4 storyline objectives at a given time).
Load times are irksome and I have had a couple of crashes. I'd also avoid the free DLC you might get, as it's bugged and some items (ski mask definitely, not checked all the rest) prevent characters from being used/modified.
That aside, it's a very well-balanced game. I'll probably be doing multiple playthroughs.
For those interested in AI and technology...
Google’s AI translation tool seems to have invented its own secret internal language
http://www.vox.com/2016/11/22/13721426/election-hacked-stolen-trump-russia
Nate Cohen and Nate Silver both think the discrepancies between results in counties using machines and paper ballots are what would be expected on demographic grounds.
Also, J. Alex Halderman, one of the computer scientists involved, has published a clarification, in which he says that the original report at NYMag was inaccurate, and that he thinks it's more likely that the polls were wrong than that the election was rigged (though not overwhelmingly more likely):
https://medium.com/@jhalderm/want-to-know-if-the-election-was-hacked-look-at-the-ballots-c61a6113b0ba#.sbcpfmv0b
It's harder to pass for a doctor these days as apart from surgeons they don't wear suits and ties any more, except for private work. Even stethoscopes are on the way out and white coats went years ago. Pity really, it means the plot of 'Paper Mask' wouldn't work now.