Unlikely because the FN is very transfer unfriendly. Look at the French Departmental elections last year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_departmental_elections,_2015). Despite being the leading party in the opinion polls for them, they ended up with just 62 seats out of 3,000, because in the second round that got hammered everywhere.
I want to put this in context for a second. The Communist Party got 1.3% of the vote in the first round, one twentieth of what the FN got. But the Communists ended up with twice the number of seats. Les Republicains supporters voted Communist in the second round rather than FN.
I would also point of that the Front National is polling exactly the same now as it was then; i.e c.30%.
Yes indeed. I think she needs to sell the line that if you want Frexit, then vote for her in the first round, and she needs to get a big score in the first round, if not a majority than maybe 45%+. To be in with a big chance she will probably need to be at least close to 40% in the polls. But a lot can happen in a week, and if she can nail her colours on to it somehow... The "Arab question" looms.
There are a lot of events between now and next May, but absent a big external shock, I just don't see the way she can move the FN score from 29-30% where it has been for three years up north of 40%.
To my mind, her best chance is if she is facing the five dwarves in the first round: Melenchon, Bayrou, Fillon, Macron and a Socialist, and all of them end up in the mid-teens, potentially resulting in Le Pen vs Melenchon.
I suspect more likely is that Bayrou drops out, endorses Macron, and he ends up in the low 20s, ahead of Fillon in the high teens. I can see a lot of Socialist and Left Front voters plumping for Macron to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen run-off.
The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.
Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.
snip
[ snip
Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.
If you significant.
IIRC there are about 8000 KKK members in the USA. From a population of 325m.
There are probably more people who are into black dwarf disabled sex porn.
Anyone who uses this pathetic group of sad losers as a yardstick for anything deserves derision.
That Sessions from decades ago either.
Sessions got segregation abolished in many Alabama schools, campaigned successfully for the death penalty of a Klansman re murder of black teen and advocated for Rosa Parks.
Still, let's not let facts get in the way of a good smear. PBers who claim to be keen on facts, aren't so keen on those that don't fit their prejudices.
Good grief.
Hmmm - surprisingly you seem not to be fully aware of Jeff Session's record. Whoever would have thought it?
I'm very well aware of it. That's the thing about being on the unfashionable side - we have to read rather than smear. Go on - tell me what horrors Sessions has in the cupboard are. Not innuendo or smears - just provable facts.
He was only the second person in 50 years to be rejected by the Senate Judiciary Committee for a federal judge position. He was rejected because of concerns over his ability to offer impartial judgements in cases involving African-Americans.
Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.
Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.
And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.
Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.
Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.
He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
£1.4 billion investment will deliver 40,000 new homes?
That's £35,000 per house - AFAIK current support rate limits (in Scotland at least) are £42,000 per new council-built housing unit, £63,000 if Housing Association sourced.
Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.
Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.
And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.
Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.
Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.
He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
- His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
- I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
- The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian. We both know that.
- The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
Hammond knows less about the interwebs than Corbyn shock: "My ambition is for the UK to be a world leader in 5G. That means a full-fibre network"
5G is wireless, not fibre.
The backbone would have to run off a fibre network because 5G doesn't have as good coverage as 4G or 3G.
I dare say it will need some electricity as well. Desirable as a full-fibre network might be, it has damn all to do with 5G.
It is precisely a key part of 5G and prior networks were copper based rather than fibre. If prior networks didn't use electricity then this one using it would be noteworthy.
Hammond knows less about the interwebs than Corbyn shock: "My ambition is for the UK to be a world leader in 5G. That means a full-fibre network"
5G is wireless, not fibre.
The backbone would have to run off a fibre network because 5G doesn't have as good coverage as 4G or 3G.
I dare say it will need some electricity as well. Desirable as a full-fibre network might be, it has damn all to do with 5G.
It is precisely a key part of 5G and prior networks were copper based rather than fibre. If prior networks didn't use electricity then this one using it would be noteworthy.
Fibre yes; full fibre no. And the 5G part of 5G is still wireless.
The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.
Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.
snip
[ snip
Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.
If you significant.
IIRC there are about 8000 KKK members in the USA. From a population of 325m.
There are probably more people who are into black dwarf disabled sex porn.
Anyone who uses this pathetic group of sad losers as a yardstick for anything deserves derision.
That Sessions from decades ago either.
Sessions got segregation abolished in many Alabama schools, campaigned successfully for the death penalty of a Klansman re murder of black teen and advocated for Rosa Parks.
Still, let's not let facts get in the way of a good smear. PBers who claim to be keen on facts, aren't so keen on those that don't fit their prejudices.
Good grief.
Hmmm - surprisingly you seem not to be fully aware of Jeff Session's record. Whoever would have thought it?
I'm very well aware of it. That's the thing about being on the unfashionable side - we have to read rather than smear. Go on - tell me what horrors Sessions has in the cupboard are. Not innuendo or smears - just provable facts.
He was only the second person in 50 years to be rejected by the Senate Judiciary Committee for a federal judge position. He was rejected because of concerns over his ability to offer impartial judgements in cases involving African-Americans.
Right - so in the 80s they rejected him - and what about since then? Nothing. Piffle smearing. You've confirmed that you're a useful idiot that's been reduced to shouting Waycist on cue.
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
As I understand it, the budget (currently in the Spring) sets out the tax and welfare regime, total revenues and total expenditures, while the Autumn statement determines what the revenues get spent on. As the budget and expenditure statement are obviously linked, it makes sense to bring the two together.
Quite ironic given JFK's father's performance as US ambassador in London and how he got the well-deserved order of the boot in 1940.
A president-elect of one country who pushes publicly for his favoured person to become another country's ambassador in his own country really doesn't understand stuff. Donald "I want, so why can't I get" Trump.
The line that "there's no vacancy" is very soft. It should be "Britain chooses its own ambassadors". Without consulting the host countries. Well, except if the host country is the Holy See or Israel.
When he was British ambassador to Israel, Matthew Gould attended the opening of the Leeds hasbara centre. Meanwhile the current Israeli ambassador to Britain, Mark Regev, used in practice to run the BBC news coverage whenever the Israelis were conducting mass slaughter against civilians in Gaza.
Could you imagine the British ambassador to Russia being guest of honour at the opening of a Russian "troll army" centre in Britain? Or the BBC has just heard that Soviet troops have invaded Afghanistan, so we're handing over now to the Soviet army's communications chief for 90% of the following news item?
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
Hammond knows less about the interwebs than Corbyn shock: "My ambition is for the UK to be a world leader in 5G. That means a full-fibre network"
5G is wireless, not fibre.
The backbone would have to run off a fibre network because 5G doesn't have as good coverage as 4G or 3G.
I dare say it will need some electricity as well. Desirable as a full-fibre network might be, it has damn all to do with 5G.
It is precisely a key part of 5G and prior networks were copper based rather than fibre. If prior networks didn't use electricity then this one using it would be noteworthy.
Fibre yes; full fibre no. And the 5G part of 5G is still wireless.
It will require a minimum of 100Gbps per node, which is significantly more than what BT have been installing. The only way 5G works is if each node works as a cell which needs huge fibre requirements. 5G won't work without a serious fibre network. I think this is part of why Vodafone have begun to invest in their own fibre and why the synergies for EE and BT were so huge.
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
There are a lot of events between now and next May, but absent a big external shock, I just don't see the way she can move the FN score from 29-30% where it has been for three years up north of 40%.
To my mind, her best chance is if she is facing the five dwarves in the first round: Melenchon, Bayrou, Fillon, Macron and a Socialist, and all of them end up in the mid-teens, potentially resulting in Le Pen vs Melenchon.
I suspect more likely is that Bayrou drops out, endorses Macron, and he ends up in the low 20s, ahead of Fillon in the high teens. I can see a lot of Socialist and Left Front voters plumping for Macron to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen run-off.
For the record, that means the 18.5 you can get on Macron is a FANTASTIC bet.
Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.
snip
[ snip
Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.
If you significant.
IIRC there are about 8000 KKK members in the USA. From a population of 325m.
There are probably more people who are into black dwarf disabled sex porn.
Anyone who uses this pathetic group of sad losers as a yardstick for anything deserves derision.
That Sessions from decades ago either.
Sessions got segregation abolished in many Alabama schools, campaigned successfully for the death penalty of a Klansman re murder of black teen and advocated for Rosa Parks.
Still, let's not let facts get in the way of a good smear. PBers who claim to be keen on facts, aren't so keen on those that don't fit their prejudices.
Good grief.
Hmmm - surprisingly you seem not to be fully aware of Jeff Session's record. Whoever would have thought it?
I'm very well aware of it. That's the thing about being on the unfashionable side - we have to read rather than smear. Go on - tell me what horrors Sessions has in the cupboard are. Not innuendo or smears - just provable facts.
He was only the second person in 50 years to be rejected by the Senate Judiciary Committee for a federal judge position. He was rejected because of concerns over his ability to offer impartial judgements in cases involving African-Americans.
Right - so in the 80s they rejected him - and what about since then? Nothing. Piffle smearing. You've confirmed that you're a useful idiot that's been reduced to shouting Waycist on cue.
Says someone who observed Democrats formed the KKK in the 1860s. :-D
You asked for facts. I gave you facts. You don't like the facts. That's your problem, not mine.
This 'Osborne the master strategist' meme refuses to die. What he is is a good networker, which is probably how he get his position and how he ended up in the embarrassing situation of being on a millionaire's yacht with Peter Mandelson.
Osborne was a poor Chancellor (never hitting his fairly unambitious targets), an unconvincing campaigner, and his precious Northern Powerhouse is only happening now he's on the backbenches.
He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
1. His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
2. I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
3. The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian. We both know that.
4. The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
1. I know that but it's what he pledged all the same. He didn't row back on it until elected. That counts as a promise in my book. Check the quote from the debate.
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
Good to see the white supremacist assassin of Jo Cox get a life means life sentence. The bravery she showed that day was truly remarkable. I hope that at some stage knowing that she died a hero will give her family a degree of comfort.
Didn't realise that there were plans for a 'super connection' between Oxford and Cambridge
There should be direct services between Oxford and London Marylebone commencing next month. Chiltern Railways already reached so-called "Oxford Parkway" last November.
There are a lot of events between now and next May, but absent a big external shock, I just don't see the way she can move the FN score from 29-30% where it has been for three years up north of 40%.
She doesn't need to. She needs to move her personal score up which is a different matter.
I think most of us did, but collectively we probably made more on Brexit.
Indeed. As noted earlier, once PBers "knew" the market was wrong, killings were made
As the chap who edited PB on the evening of GE 2015, Brexit, and the US Presidential election 2016, you'll notice my threads I called a Tory majority, a Leave victory, and Trump as POTUS well before Betfair and the mainstream media.
I still think a Tory majority at nearly 2/1 on Betfair after Nuneaton was a reflection of punters watching the likes of the BBC/ITV/Sky News and listening to the talking heads.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
1. His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
2. I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
3. The Wall that.
4. The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
1. I know that but it's what he pledged all the same. He didn't row back on it until elected. That counts as a promise in my book. Check the quote from the debate.
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
Also worth noting that since the election he has settled the Trump university case when previously he said it was groundless and that he would fight it all the way.
- The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian.
The 900-mile barrier between East Germany and West Germany consisted of both fence and wall.
Just a quick mention for the currently operative walls in Belfast and Palestine.
He's moving the budget from spring to autumn. Not cool, Phillip. Not cool at all.
If the tax year aligned with the calendar year as a follow-on to that, I'd be interested. That would be properly useful.
A January to December year would be awful for accountants and lawyers everywhere, working through Xmas an NY. A reason to introduce it for some, I guess!
He's moving the budget from spring to autumn. Not cool, Phillip. Not cool at all.
If the tax year aligned with the calendar year as a follow-on to that, I'd be interested. That would be properly useful.
A January to December year would be awful for accountants and lawyers everywhere, working through Xmas an NY. A reason to introduce it for some, I guess!
The US tax year is JAn-Dec and they seem to do just fine, despite almost everyone having to do a tax return
He's moving the budget from spring to autumn. Not cool, Phillip. Not cool at all.
If the tax year aligned with the calendar year as a follow-on to that, I'd be interested. That would be properly useful.
A January to December year would be awful for accountants and lawyers everywhere, working through Xmas an NY. A reason to introduce it for some, I guess!
The US tax year is JAn-Dec and they seem to do just fine, despite almost everyone having to do a tax return
- The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian.
The 900-mile barrier between East Germany and West Germany consisted of both fence and wall.
Just a quick mention for the currently operative walls in Belfast and Palestine.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
1. His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
2. I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
3. The Wall that.
4. The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
1. I know that but it's what he pledged all the same. He didn't row back on it until elected. That counts as a promise in my book. Check the quote from the debate.
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
Also worth noting that since the election he has settled the Trump university case when previously he said it was groundless and that he would fight it all the way.
To be fair anybody fighting a court case is going to say it's groundless and they will fight all the way - right up until they settle. That's just how it's done.
He's moving the budget from spring to autumn. Not cool, Phillip. Not cool at all.
If the tax year aligned with the calendar year as a follow-on to that, I'd be interested. That would be properly useful.
A January to December year would be awful for accountants and lawyers everywhere, working through Xmas an NY. A reason to introduce it for some, I guess!
The US tax year is JAn-Dec and they seem to do just fine, despite almost everyone having to do a tax return
The tax year can match the calender year without the return due date being over Christmas.
He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
1. His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
2. I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
3. The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian. We both know that.
4. The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
1. I know that but it's what he pledged all the same. He didn't row back on it until elected. That counts as a promise in my book. Check the quote from the debate.
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
Don't forget publically disavowing Plato's alt-Right friends as well.
- The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian.
The 900-mile barrier between East Germany and West Germany consisted of both fence and wall.
Just a quick mention for the currently operative walls in Belfast and Palestine.
There are NO WALLS in the UK, surely not!
There are - and Mr WHIPPY, LYONS MAID, BEN & JERRY etc....
In the Middle East two brands have sub-offices "Walls of Jericho" and "Lyons of Judea"
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
1. His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
2. I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
3. The Wall that.
4. The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
1. I know that but it's what he pledged all the same. He didn't row back on it until elected. That counts as a promise in my book. Check the quote from the debate.
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
Also worth noting that since the election he has settled the Trump university case when previously he said it was groundless and that he would fight it all the way.
and he said he never settles...another broken promise.
He's moving the budget from spring to autumn. Not cool, Phillip. Not cool at all.
If the tax year aligned with the calendar year as a follow-on to that, I'd be interested. That would be properly useful.
A January to December year would be awful for accountants and lawyers everywhere, working through Xmas an NY. A reason to introduce it for some, I guess!
The US tax year is JAn-Dec and they seem to do just fine, despite almost everyone having to do a tax return
The tax year can match the calender year without the return due date being over Christmas.
Indeed, the deadline for tax returns is in April the following year so no need for anyone to work over Xmas. I doubt anyone currently rushes out their tax return on 7th April (unless HMRC owes them money!)
@Scott_P - have there been occasions in the past when the OBR has said "the pound is a lot stronger than we expecting it to be" therefore things are going to be a lot better because of x, y and z?
He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.
Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.
Do you think he'll win in 2020, and if so, why?
Personally, I expect him to lose spectacularly. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he's not even nominated if he goes on reneging on campaign promises as he has this last fortnight.
What has he reneged on so far?
- Prosecuting Hillary - Paris Climate deal withdrawal - The Wall (or it not necessarily being a wall) - Repealing Obamacare
To name a few.
Golly, David - you're a very sophisticated chap and coming out with this?
1. His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
1. I know that but it's what he pledged all the same. He didn't row back on it until elected. That counts as a promise in my book. Check the quote from the debate.
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
Don't forget publically disavowing Plato's alt-Right friends as well.
Just wait until he decides:
1) Don't drain the swamp, hold a swamp party.
and
2) changes the slogan to Make America Grotty Again.
Though to be fair, Trump reneging on promises quickly and shamelessly is probably the smart thing to do. He has closed the deal already.
Comments
To my mind, her best chance is if she is facing the five dwarves in the first round: Melenchon, Bayrou, Fillon, Macron and a Socialist, and all of them end up in the mid-teens, potentially resulting in Le Pen vs Melenchon.
I suspect more likely is that Bayrou drops out, endorses Macron, and he ends up in the low 20s, ahead of Fillon in the high teens. I can see a lot of Socialist and Left Front voters plumping for Macron to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen run-off.
Edit: Autumn budget. Good move.
Autumn 2017 will be an Autumn Budget.
Spring 2018 - a Spring Statement instead of the Budget!
Much hilarity in the House.....
That's £35,000 per house - AFAIK current support rate limits (in Scotland at least) are £42,000 per new council-built housing unit, £63,000 if Housing Association sourced.
Does anyone have the equivalent E&W stat?
- His AG once apptd will decide on a Special Prosecutor - he can't do it as it's not been within POTUS powers since pre Watergate. You know that.
- I haven't seen anything about Paris chatter wise - I get hundreds of US Trump tweets a day so clearly missed this somehow.
- The Wall isn't about bricks like China or East Germany - it's what's appropriate for the terrain vs risk. So a 15ft fence or a solid barrier or drones/CCTV watching 500miles in the desert as required. No one but anti-Trump literalists thinks he's building a la Hadrian. We both know that.
- The pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26yrs old were in the original GOP motions that never got a look in re the ACA given Obama did an Exec Order. Another none issue.
I'm genuinely surprised that you've suggested such nonsense.
March 2017 budget
November 2017 budget
March 2018 Spring statement
November 2018 budget
so on and so forth
Edited extra bit OMG it's boring though
Mind you today's Sky poll had McDonnell at only 7% approval -
Could you imagine the British ambassador to Russia being guest of honour at the opening of a Russian "troll army" centre in Britain? Or the BBC has just heard that Soviet troops have invaded Afghanistan, so we're handing over now to the Soviet army's communications chief for 90% of the following news item?
Barely a murmur from the Labour ranks.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/facebook-more-trusted-news-daily-star-according-bbc-commissioned-survey/
Glad they aee throwing away the key as well.
You asked for facts. I gave you facts. You don't like the facts. That's your problem, not mine.
Osborne was a poor Chancellor (never hitting his fairly unambitious targets), an unconvincing campaigner, and his precious Northern Powerhouse is only happening now he's on the backbenches.
Angela Merkel’s time is up. She shouldn’t stand for a fourth term
It’s tempting to look to Germany’s chancellor as a beacon of stability in turbulent times. But it would be in Europe’s interests if she stepped aside"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/23/angela-merkel-fourth-term-germany-europe
2. He said he'd withdraw; now he has an 'open mind' about it.
3. Drones and CCTV are not a wall. Again, revisit what he was saying in his rallies. He promised a wall (and that Mexico would pay - and no, he can't deliver on that too but then we both knew it at the time).
4. He said he'd repeal it; he's now looking to 'amend' it.
You can argue details about all these but as Rove said, once you're arguing details, you're losing; you can argue that the current policies are more sensible than the campaign pledges - I would - but they're broken promises all the same.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/11/spacex-rockets-december-return/
Just a quick mention for the currently operative walls in Belfast and Palestine.
Remember kids, it doesn't get any better than this
http://www.cherwell.org/2016/09/27/oxford-spy-ring/
Watch him put the final nail into the Bush coffin when he (Or the House) gets round to the "29 pages" of the 9-11 report.
Don't forget publically disavowing Plato's alt-Right friends as well.
In the Middle East two brands have sub-offices "Walls of Jericho" and "Lyons of Judea"
Indeed, the deadline for tax returns is in April the following year so no need for anyone to work over Xmas. I doubt anyone currently rushes out their tax return on 7th April (unless HMRC owes them money!)
1) Don't drain the swamp, hold a swamp party.
and
2) changes the slogan to Make America Grotty Again.
Though to be fair, Trump reneging on promises quickly and shamelessly is probably the smart thing to do. He has closed the deal already.