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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Five months after the vote and BREXIT is as decisive an issue

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    IanB2 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    Less chocolate for the same money? I don't recall the Brexit nutjobs ever telling us this would happen?
    Good to reduce obesity and saves a sugar tax
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    ' The big development this week is that the Scottish and Welsh governments have been joined to the action sparking of the speculation that Nicola Sturgeon could have a veto. '

    They'll have as much of a veto as the leaders of any other county council.

    'Yeah, it's about sovereignty, and democratic accountability, and taking back control, and not being dictated to by institutions and governments we didn't vote for, and the primacy of our courts, except when they become enemies of the people of course. The Sweaties can suck it up cos we've got the mostest voters. Westminster is just the best (except when it comes to having a vote on A50 obvs).'

    The convolutions and consistency of Brexit principles.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TUD - your new avatar scares me.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352
    edited November 2016

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
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    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    Ah, a rediscovered trust in polls.
    You'll be wanting your Indy Ref II then to settle it once and for all?
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:

    Alistair said:

    Omfg, he actually demanded it be a safe place, I'd only seen the other tweet.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/799974635274194947

    He's just sticking up for his special snowflake Mike Pence.
    We're in for 4 years of fun.

    Alpha male victimhood is something really special.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    Ah, a rediscovered trust in polls.
    You'll be wanting your Indy Ref II then to settle it once and for all?
    No, it was settled for a generation a few years ago :)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    It implies it. Otherwise you just revoke and resubmit to get an unilateral extension

    No. Revoking then resubmitting is not a unilateral extension. It's a reset. You don't keep everything you negotiated first time round.

    Let's try an analogy (which may be crap)

    A US H1B visa runs for 3 years, but at any point you can decide to leave (revoke your visa)

    If you then decide you want to go back you don't "extend" your old visa, you start again. From scratch.
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    RobD said:

    TUD - your new avatar scares me.

    'It's okay baby, trust me, it's gonna be so beautiful.'
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    TUD - your new avatar scares me.

    'It's okay baby, trust me, it's gonna be so beautiful.'
    Demonstrably not.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    It implies it. Otherwise you just revoke and resubmit to get an unilateral extension

    No. Revoking then resubmitting is not a unilateral extension. It's a reset. You don't keep everything you negotiated first time round.

    Let's try an analogy (which may be crap)

    A US H1B visa runs for 3 years, but at any point you can decide to leave (revoke your visa)

    If you then decide you want to go back you don't "extend" your old visa, you start again. From scratch.
    Surely you haven't negotiated anything, otherwise a deal would have been done?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Surely you haven't negotiated anything, otherwise a deal would have been done?

    You might have negotiated lots of things without a deal being signed.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think Toblerone will reverse their decision. Sterling has recovered it's losses from 13% to 8% over the last couple of weeks and the Euro is under a lot of pressure. They would take a lot of bad press over nothing in the end
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    It implies it. Otherwise you just revoke and resubmit to get an unilateral extension

    No. Revoking then resubmitting is not a unilateral extension. It's a reset. You don't keep everything you negotiated first time round.

    Let's try an analogy (which may be crap)

    A US H1B visa runs for 3 years, but at any point you can decide to leave (revoke your visa)

    If you then decide you want to go back you don't "extend" your old visa, you start again. From scratch.
    You are right. It is a crap analogy.

    If you are having a negotiation and have argued for 2 years and someone revokes and resubmits instantaneously (which is the scenario I am envisaging) then, although, in theory, you could throw away 2 years work and start with a white sheet of paper in practice you won't. Because it's a complete waste of time.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    I don't see anywhere in the text that it can be revoked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union

    Point 3 is relevant here:

    "The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

    Unless agreed by unanimity to extend the period.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    But you don't want the UK to remain as a political entity, so why should that bother you?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    If you are having a negotiation and have argued for 2 years and someone revokes and resubmits instantaneously (which is the scenario I am envisaging) then, although, in theory, you could throw away 2 years work and start with a white sheet of paper in practice you won't.

    You might, if you thought the other side were taking the piss.

    Which is the point.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    If you are having a negotiation and have argued for 2 years and someone revokes and resubmits instantaneously (which is the scenario I am envisaging) then, although, in theory, you could throw away 2 years work and start with a white sheet of paper in practice you won't.

    You might, if you thought the other side were taking the piss.

    Which is the point.
    You've never negotiated anything serious have you?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MaxPB said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think Toblerone will reverse their decision. Sterling has recovered it's losses from 13% to 8% over the last couple of weeks and the Euro is under a lot of pressure. They would take a lot of bad press over nothing in the end
    Toblerone in the US is unchanged, thankfully.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    You've never negotiated anything serious have you?

    I've never walked out, then walked back in saying "only kidding" which is what you are proposing
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    Ribena has done the same. They used to sell 10 for £2. Now it is 4 for £1.20. 50% increase.
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    Tim_B said:

    MaxPB said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think Toblerone will reverse their decision. Sterling has recovered it's losses from 13% to 8% over the last couple of weeks and the Euro is under a lot of pressure. They would take a lot of bad press over nothing in the end
    Toblerone in the US is unchanged, thankfully.
    I think it is here at present
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    You've never negotiated anything serious have you?

    I've never walked out, then walked back in saying "only kidding" which is what you are proposing
    Isn't that what we would be doing by revoking Article 50?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    You've never negotiated anything serious have you?

    I've never walked out, then walked back in saying "only kidding" which is what you are proposing
    That's not what you are saying.

    You are saying "I am serious, take that gun away from my head".

    In practice the clock would be suspended. As happened in the $1bn+ buyout of a joint venture that I was involved in negotiating.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Isn't that what we would be doing by revoking Article 50?

    Revoking article 50 would be walking out.

    Charles et al are arguing that this can't happen because it would mean we could walk straight back in, nor harm no foul.

    Which is bollocks.
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    surbiton said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    Ribena has done the same. They used to sell 10 for £2. Now it is 4 for £1.20. 50% increase.
    Don't buy it then. I will not buy any product showing a 50% increase - there are alternatives
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2016
    Charles said:

    In practice the clock would be suspended. As happened in the $1bn+ buyout of a joint venture that I was involved in negotiating.

    In practise the clock would be reset

    EDIT. Your argument is circular. You are claiming the clock would be suspended, which means that we can't allow the clock to be suspended.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    Ah, a rediscovered trust in polls.
    You'll be wanting your Indy Ref II then to settle it once and for all?
    Yes, asap. Sturgeon will be destroyed. She knows that, which is why she's pussyfooting around. If she thought she'd win because the EU mattered that much to Scots, she'd have started the ball rolling on IndyRef2 on June the 24th.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MaxPB said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think Toblerone will reverse their decision. Sterling has recovered it's losses from 13% to 8% over the last couple of weeks and the Euro is under a lot of pressure. They would take a lot of bad press over nothing in the end
    No its a lose lose, no one really cares about obesity and those who want their toblerone feel cheated.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    edited November 2016
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    Ah, a rediscovered trust in polls.
    You'll be wanting your Indy Ref II then to settle it once and for all?
    Yes, asap. Sturgeon will be destroyed. She knows that, which is why she's pussyfooting around. If she thought she'd win because the EU mattered that much to Scots, she'd have started the ball rolling on IndyRef2 on June the 24th.
    And yet it's the Yoons (including May & the Tory government who as we're constantly being reminded are the only ones who can authorise one) perpetually screetching that there shouldn't be a 2nd referendum. Strange that.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    There are a lot of things - particularly electronics - which have seen quite sizable increases.
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    rcs1000 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    There are a lot of things - particularly electronics - which have seen quite sizable increases.
    To be fair I was talking about food shopping
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't that what we would be doing by revoking Article 50?

    Revoking article 50 would be walking out.

    Charles et al are arguing that this can't happen because it would mean we could walk straight back in, nor harm no foul.

    Which is bollocks.
    Revoking article 50 would be us saying "just kidding, we aren't leaving after all". I am sure that'd go down well in Europe.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Revoking article 50 would be us saying "just kidding, we aren't leaving after all". I am sure that'd go down well in Europe.

    Indeed, which is why if we then turned round and said "just kidding" again, let's pick up our negotiations where we left off, the response would be **** off.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    rcs1000 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    There are a lot of things - particularly electronics - which have seen quite sizable increases.
    To be fair I was talking about food shopping
    You pay more for less could apply to both kinds of apple.
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    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    Ah, a rediscovered trust in polls.
    You'll be wanting your Indy Ref II then to settle it once and for all?
    Yes, asap. Sturgeon will be destroyed. She knows that, which is why she's pussyfooting around. If she thought she'd win because the EU mattered that much to Scots, she'd have started the ball rolling on IndyRef2 on June the 24th.
    And yet it's the Yoons (including May & the Tory government who as we're constantly being reminded are the only ones who can authorise one) perpetually screetching that there shouldn't be a 2nd referendum. Strange that.
    I'd argue May doesn't want to take the risk, however small, that Scotland secedes on her watch. It would also distract from Brexit negotiations. That doesn't mean she thinks Yes2 would win.
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    surbiton said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    Ribena has done the same. They used to sell 10 for £2. Now it is 4 for £1.20. 50% increase.
    And next month they'll be back to 10 for £2.

    That sort of branded multi-buy always has big swings in prices depending upon whether its on special offer or not.

    A better comparison on prices is to use the supermarket own label items.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    IanB2 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    Less chocolate for the same money? I don't recall the Brexit nutjobs ever telling us this would happen?
    Nanny state advocates of the sugar tax should be delighted.
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    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Makes you wonder how much he actually knows/cares about the politics of his devotees - 'safe spaces' and 'the right to offend' are totemic grievances amongst the Alt-Right. My guess is that he doesn't give a fig.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,931
    edited November 2016

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    A right laugh as they stuck it to the Tories big time.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    bollox
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    That would work for sure
  • Options

    ' The big development this week is that the Scottish and Welsh governments have been joined to the action sparking of the speculation that Nicola Sturgeon could have a veto. '

    They'll have as much of a veto as the leaders of any other county council.

    'Yeah, it's about sovereignty, and democratic accountability, and taking back control, and not being dictated to by institutions and governments we didn't vote for, and the primacy of our courts, except when they become enemies of the people of course. The Sweaties can suck it up cos we've got the mostest voters. Westminster is just the best (except when it comes to having a vote on A50 obvs).'

    The convolutions and consistency of Brexit principles.
    You could 'rise now and be a nation again' if you find your bottle.

    Until then the Krankies get told what to do.
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    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    can anyone advise if the Supreme Court rules that Holyrood has to be consulted and approve article 50 for it to be triggered what the outcome would be for brexit

    Probably suspension of the Holyrood Parliament :grin:

    It would be a massive overreach by the Supreme Court to interfere in the balance of authority between Westminster and Holyrood.
    I am sure the Supreme Court will act within the law. If the Brexiters do not like the Court's ruling, they can always go to the ECJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And Westminster would be acting within the law to suspend Holyrood...

    (which is why I said it...)
    Are you any closer to the realisation that you can keep the UK together or you can have Brexit but not both?
    The polling evidence indicates that Scots would not leave the UK to stay in the EU.
    Ah, a rediscovered trust in polls.
    You'll be wanting your Indy Ref II then to settle it once and for all?
    Yes, asap. Sturgeon will be destroyed. She knows that, which is why she's pussyfooting around. If she thought she'd win because the EU mattered that much to Scots, she'd have started the ball rolling on IndyRef2 on June the 24th.
    And yet it's the Yoons (including May & the Tory government who as we're constantly being reminded are the only ones who can authorise one) perpetually screetching that there shouldn't be a 2nd referendum. Strange that.
    I'd argue May doesn't want to take the risk, however small, that Scotland secedes on her watch. It would also distract from Brexit negotiations. That doesn't mean she thinks Yes2 would win.
    The brave Sir Yoons ran away
    (No!)
    Bravely ran away away
    (We didn't!)
    When danger reared its ugly head
    They bravely turned their tails and fled
    (No!)
    Yes, the brave Sir Yoons turned about
    (We didn't!)
    And gallantly they chickened out

  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
    The interaction with Pence apparently only occurred during the curtain call.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't that what we would be doing by revoking Article 50?

    Revoking article 50 would be walking out.

    Charles et al are arguing that this can't happen because it would mean we could walk straight back in, nor harm no foul.

    Which is bollocks.
    "no harm, no foul" is your addition.

    I am saying you could revoke and resubmit. Which - of course - you could.

    I don't believe - based on 20 years of negotiation experience - that it would impact your negotiation. Perhaps you have more experience to back up your assessment. But if the other party wanted to play silly games (which they wouldn't because a permanent negotiation / poor relationship is no one's interest - and one or both of those would be the impact of a lack of good faith in negotiations)

    Fundamentally, one of the strongest parts of the EU's negotiation position is a 2 year drop dead date. That is a real advantage. So why would they want to give it up by allowing Article 50 to be revoked at the UK's sole discretion.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2016

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Makes you wonder how much he actually knows/cares about the politics of his devotees - 'safe spaces' and 'the right to offend' are totemic grievances amongst the Alt-Right. My guess is that he doesn't give a fig.
    That's the thing with the alt-right and their ilk. They are the type of people who want to be able to say controversial things on race or gender without their view being challenged in any way.

    @Sandpit Pence and Trump ran their camp in such a way that it was bound to make many demographics in America feel anxious and nervous about a Trump presidency. Some of Trump's picks for his cabinet have merely confirmed those fears to many people. If Pence and Trump cannot handle what happened at Hamilton last night, then it's going to be a long four years for them. Lesson is: don't run a divisive campaign if you don't want to get challenged for it.
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    rcs1000 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    There are a lot of things - particularly electronics - which have seen quite sizable increases.
    Does that mean we wont be regaled with stories of supermarkets selling TVs for £100 at 00:01 on 25th November ?

    Please tell me that's the case.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Fundamentally, one of the strongest parts of the EU's negotiation position is a 2 year drop dead date. That is a real advantage. So why would they want to give it up by allowing Article 50 to be revoked at the UK's sole discretion.

    Revoking doesn't give it up.

    That's your invention.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    In practice the clock would be suspended. As happened in the $1bn+ buyout of a joint venture that I was involved in negotiating.

    In practise the clock would be reset

    EDIT. Your argument is circular. You are claiming the clock would be suspended, which means that we can't allow the clock to be suspended.
    No: what I am saying is that *if* Article 50 could be revoked then you could immediately reset, thereby unilaterally extending the clock by 2 years.

    There is no point going through that farago. So, in practice, the two parties would agree to suspend the clock.

    (Taking a step back, I don't believe that it is the EU's intention to allow the UK the benefit of an extension of the clock - and therefore they did not intend Article 50 to be revocable)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited November 2016
    Somebody was asking above about Trump and civil liberties, getting the reply that Congress can do this, not the President, and they have only done it three times.

    In fact this is not quite accurate. One President did suspend Habeus Corpus, but it was immediately ruled unconstitutional although this made no actual difference (his response was to say that he would actually lock up the judges if they didn't keep quiet, and to lock up a number of journalists who dared to report on it). So it could be done in practice even though it is undoubtedly illegal in theory.

    However, there are two caveats: (1) it was only suspended in Maryland and (2) nobody made an issue of it at the time because it was in 1861 and a little number called the American Civil War was kicking off - Lincoln was trying to avert the risk of Maryland seceding and Washington being cut off allowing him and the entire government to be captured.

    It is hard to visualise a similar level of emergency now which would lead the army to back the President not the courts. With that ruling to guide them, any attempt by Trump to do such a thing would surely be treason, justifying first his suspension and then his removal from office.

    So it ain't gonna happen.
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    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

  • Options

    ' The big development this week is that the Scottish and Welsh governments have been joined to the action sparking of the speculation that Nicola Sturgeon could have a veto. '

    They'll have as much of a veto as the leaders of any other county council.

    'Yeah, it's about sovereignty, and democratic accountability, and taking back control, and not being dictated to by institutions and governments we didn't vote for, and the primacy of our courts, except when they become enemies of the people of course. The Sweaties can suck it up cos we've got the mostest voters. Westminster is just the best (except when it comes to having a vote on A50 obvs).'

    The convolutions and consistency of Brexit principles.
    You could 'rise now and be a nation again' if you find your bottle.

    Until then the Krankies get told what to do.
    It appears to be your fellow Brits and English expats that didn't have the bottle last time. However I'm reluctant to adopt the Brexit xenophobia and racism that enabled 'the people of England, that never have spoken yet' to start roaring petulantly.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Revoking article 50 would be us saying "just kidding, we aren't leaving after all". I am sure that'd go down well in Europe.

    Indeed, which is why if we then turned round and said "just kidding" again, let's pick up our negotiations where we left off, the response would be **** off.
    We are not saying "just kidding" at all.

    We are saying "we need more time. This is a silly technical device that will get us more time"
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    (Taking a step back, I don't believe that it is the EU's intention to allow the UK the benefit of an extension of the clock - and therefore they did not intend Article 50 to be revocable)

    Revoking doesn't extend the clock. Therefore it could be revocable.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    ' The big development this week is that the Scottish and Welsh governments have been joined to the action sparking of the speculation that Nicola Sturgeon could have a veto. '

    They'll have as much of a veto as the leaders of any other county council.

    'Yeah, it's about sovereignty, and democratic accountability, and taking back control, and not being dictated to by institutions and governments we didn't vote for, and the primacy of our courts, except when they become enemies of the people of course. The Sweaties can suck it up cos we've got the mostest voters. Westminster is just the best (except when it comes to having a vote on A50 obvs).'

    The convolutions and consistency of Brexit principles.
    You could 'rise now and be a nation again' if you find your bottle.

    Until then the Krankies get told what to do.
    Are you out of primary school. What an imbecilic remark, no doubt a knuckle dragging loser.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    rcs1000 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    There are a lot of things - particularly electronics - which have seen quite sizable increases.
    The key staple food, bread, is up 20% in Cannock. Not sure if that's a national thing.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2016
    Charles said:

    We are saying "we need more time. This is a silly technical device that will get us more time"

    Unless it doesn't get us more time.

    You think it extends the clock. It doesn't.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Never believe a commentator!

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.

    That being said it's worth remembering that Euro/USD has been much of a muchness for the last two years. If it breaks out (which it may or may not do this week) of the trading range (1.05 to 1.15) it's been stuck in since the start of 2015, then it would be interesting, but most chartists (I'm not one) would probably argue it's likely to bounce off resistance here.
  • Options

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    SAFE SPAAACE.

    Many Americans should also get to live in the world where they aren't in fear of facing increased racism, sexism, etc. embolden by a President Trump and his team of white supermacists. But they don't get that.
  • Options

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    SAFE SPAAACE.

    Many Americans should also get to live in the world where they aren't in fear of facing increased racism, sexism, etc. embolden by a President Trump and his team of white supermacists. But they don't get that.
    Oh dear. Suffering from a little attack of hysteria are we?

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052

    rcs1000 said:

    This last week has seen toblerone and maltesers reduce their size but maintain the price due to the currency devaluation.

    This has to be a win - win. Keeps inflation in check and reduces the other inflation, obesity.

    Positives for Brexit

    I think the reduced size of the packs would be taken into account when calculation the CPI.

    But from what I can see in the supermarkets the price of regular food hasn't changed (if anything tis slightly cheaper than a year ago) whilst it is branded chocolates etc where attempts are being made to increase the profit margins.
    I mostly do the shopping in our home and there has been little noticeable effect on prices since the 23rd June.

    How the CPI is calculated is beyond my knowledge but if the size is reduced and the price is the same I do not pay anymore at the till
    There are a lot of things - particularly electronics - which have seen quite sizable increases.
    Does that mean we wont be regaled with stories of supermarkets selling TVs for £100 at 00:01 on 25th November ?

    Please tell me that's the case.
    We will still be regaled by those stories. Sorry.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Fundamentally, one of the strongest parts of the EU's negotiation position is a 2 year drop dead date. That is a real advantage. So why would they want to give it up by allowing Article 50 to be revoked at the UK's sole discretion.

    Revoking doesn't give it up.

    That's your invention.
    If revoking means anything then it is the stop the entire process.

    If you resubmit 1 hour later then a new 2 year process starts.

    So the advantage of the 2 year clock is lost. Unless the EU insists on starting again from zero - which, in practice they wouldn't.

    Would you care to share how much negotiation experience you have had in the past?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    If revoking means anything then it is the stop the entire process.

    If you resubmit 1 hour later then a new 2 year process starts.

    Exactly. A new process. From scratch.

    Anything negotiated in the previous attempt is up for grabs.
  • Options

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    SAFE SPAAACE.

    Many Americans should also get to live in the world where they aren't in fear of facing increased racism, sexism, etc. embolden by a President Trump and his team of white supermacists. But they don't get that.
    Oh dear. Suffering from a little attack of hysteria are we?

    Keep putting your head in the sand about Trump's new America.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    If revoking means anything then it is the stop the entire process.

    If you resubmit 1 hour later then a new 2 year process starts.

    Exactly. A new process. From scratch.

    Anything negotiated in the previous attempt is up for grabs.
    In theory. In practice it wouldn't happen. Because if you reopen the negotiation on the sofa, then I reopen the negotiation on the armchair.

    Negotiation is about narrowing differences, not widening them.

    But I'm guessing you've never had to do it.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Never believe a commentator!

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.

    That being said it's worth remembering that Euro/USD has been much of a muchness for the last two years. If it breaks out (which it may or may not do this week) of the trading range (1.05 to 1.15) it's been stuck in since the start of 2015, then it would be interesting, but most chartists (I'm not one) would probably argue it's likely to bounce off resistance here.
    I think if there is more easing from the ECB and the Fed raise rates to 0.75% the lower resistance will break. Parity is what your old work place said in a report I read on Friday. $1.14 for Sterling next year as well is fair value according to them.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
    It happened at the curtain call after the performance.

    Safe space safe spaaaaaaaaaaaaace.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Negotiation is about narrowing differences, not widening them.

    Until one side plays silly buggers.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Never believe a commentator!

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.

    That being said it's worth remembering that Euro/USD has been much of a muchness for the last two years. If it breaks out (which it may or may not do this week) of the trading range (1.05 to 1.15) it's been stuck in since the start of 2015, then it would be interesting, but most chartists (I'm not one) would probably argue it's likely to bounce off resistance here.
    Thanks for that.

    Just a point, if the falling euro is good for the EU why do so many remainers say the falling pound is bad for the UK
  • Options

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    SAFE SPAAACE.

    Many Americans should also get to live in the world where they aren't in fear of facing increased racism, sexism, etc. embolden by a President Trump and his team of white supermacists. But they don't get that.
    Oh dear. Suffering from a little attack of hysteria are we?

    Keep putting your head in the sand about Trump's new America.
    Trump's not POTUS yet. I shall reserve judgement on his administration until we've seen what it does. I suggest you do likewise. In the meantime no doubt you are aware of the Bill Clinton speech Guido unearthed this week, and given the Clinton's behaviour towards the other women in his life no doubt you consider them racist and sexist too? Actually I'm being silly. Because the Clinton's are on the right side of the political divide anything they do is ok. Yes?

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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.
    Erm, aren't only parts of it goods export orientated (e.g Germany)? Surely a falling Euro will exacerbate the differences within the Eurozone?

  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    SAFE SPAAACE.

    Many Americans should also get to live in the world where they aren't in fear of facing increased racism, sexism, etc. embolden by a President Trump and his team of white supermacists. But they don't get that.
    Oh dear. Suffering from a little attack of hysteria are we?

    Keep putting your head in the sand about Trump's new America.
    Trump's not POTUS yet. I shall reserve judgement on his administration until we've seen what it does. I suggest you do likewise. In the meantime no doubt you are aware of the Bill Clinton speech Guido unearthed this week, and given the Clinton's behaviour towards the other women in his life no doubt you consider them racist and sexist too? Actually I'm being silly. Because the Clinton's are on the right side of the political divide anything they do is ok. Yes?

    Is this the Bill Clinton speech unearthed by Guido Fawkes... the one that was actually his State of the Union address in 1995?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    Anybody know where TSE is sitting on Strictly?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,923

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Point 1: EUR/USD has been wibbling between $1.05 and $1.15 for about the last two years.[1]
    Point 2: Are you telling me a currency devaluation is a bad thing? I thought the Brexit dogma on this was a currency devaluation was always good? (See also the Laffer curve)

    [1] http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=2Y
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Never believe a commentator!

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.

    That being said it's worth remembering that Euro/USD has been much of a muchness for the last two years. If it breaks out (which it may or may not do this week) of the trading range (1.05 to 1.15) it's been stuck in since the start of 2015, then it would be interesting, but most chartists (I'm not one) would probably argue it's likely to bounce off resistance here.
    Thanks for that.

    Just a point, if the falling euro is good for the EU why do so many remainers say the falling pound is bad for the UK
    In general, the problem the UK economy has is that it is has only limited goods exports, and most of our exports are service oriented. So, if the Euro was 20% cheaper, a factory in Germany or Dpain can put an extra shift on to make and sell more product. If you are selling services, they are rather less price elastic. A person cannot sell more of his time than he has hours in the day. Also, what goods exports we have - like cars - have very international supply chains. Only about 7% of the cost of a Nissan car is labour, for example, with a lot of the rest being imported engines, steel, etc.

    Where the cheaper Euro is bad for the Eurozone is that it further suppresses domestic consumption. In general, the big problem the Eurozone has is that it's consumers are scared, and therefore save too much and spend too little. (This is the so-called Euroglut.) Normally, government would try to counteract this by increasing government spending to make up for deficient domestic demand, but Eurozone budget rules make this worse. This results in the whole bloc being stuck in a low (1.5% p.a.) growth zone, albeit one where unemployment is now gradually falling everywhere.
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    Tonights Opinium/Observer poll

    41 cons

    29 labour

    12 ukip

    7 lib dems

    6 snp

    4 greens
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    To those living in Southern England and Wales, close all shutters and windows tonight before going to bed. A Scottish named storm (Angus) is due to hit the area later tonight with winds of up to 80/90 miles per hour. This is the real beginning of the coldest winter in memory as I forecast several months ago.
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Never believe a commentator!

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.

    That being said it's worth remembering that Euro/USD has been much of a muchness for the last two years. If it breaks out (which it may or may not do this week) of the trading range (1.05 to 1.15) it's been stuck in since the start of 2015, then it would be interesting, but most chartists (I'm not one) would probably argue it's likely to bounce off resistance here.
    Thanks for that.

    Just a point, if the falling euro is good for the EU why do so many remainers say the falling pound is bad for the UK
    In general, the problem the UK economy has is that it is has only limited goods exports, and most of our exports are service oriented. So, if the Euro was 20% cheaper, a factory in Germany or Dpain can put an extra shift on to make and sell more product. If you are selling services, they are rather less price elastic. A person cannot sell more of his time than he has hours in the day. Also, what goods exports we have - like cars - have very international supply chains. Only about 7% of the cost of a Nissan car is labour, for example, with a lot of the rest being imported engines, steel, etc.

    Where the cheaper Euro is bad for the Eurozone is that it further suppresses domestic consumption. In general, the big problem the Eurozone has is that it's consumers are scared, and therefore save too much and spend too little. (This is the so-called Euroglut.) Normally, government would try to counteract this by increasing government spending to make up for deficient domestic demand, but Eurozone budget rules make this worse. This results in the whole bloc being stuck in a low (1.5% p.a.) growth zone, albeit one where unemployment is now gradually falling everywhere.
    I do appreciate your explanations. I do know how higher and lower exchange rates affect economies but not to the detail you explain in para 1
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
    It happened at the curtain call after the performance.

    Safe space safe spaaaaaaaaaaaaace.
    Pence was booed throughout the show. Decency and good manners are something a significant percentage of the left seem to lack.
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    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    SAFE SPAAACE.

    Many Americans should also get to live in the world where they aren't in fear of facing increased racism, sexism, etc. embolden by a President Trump and his team of white supermacists. But they don't get that.
    Oh dear. Suffering from a little attack of hysteria are we?

    Keep putting your head in the sand about Trump's new America.
    Trump's not POTUS yet. I shall reserve judgement on his administration until we've seen what it does. I suggest you do likewise. In the meantime no doubt you are aware of the Bill Clinton speech Guido unearthed this week, and given the Clinton's behaviour towards the other women in his life no doubt you consider them racist and sexist too? Actually I'm being silly. Because the Clinton's are on the right side of the political divide anything they do is ok. Yes?

    A number of strawman arguments here you've introduced. Firstly on the Clintons - I'm not a Clinton defender, I saw Hilary as the 'lesser evil'. Secondly, I don't go on Guido Fawkes' blog so I didn't see the Bill Clinton speech until you alerted me to it. I don't consider Trump a racist because he wants to crack down on illegal immigration. I question his views on race because of other comments he has made. For example, his assertion that a Hispanic judge was unfit to rule on a case because of his ethnic background. Then there are the people who is has appointed to his cabinet. People like Steve Bannon and Jeff Sessions.

    In terms of Bill Clinton's treatment of women, I'm only aware he has cheated on Hilary. That's bad yes, but infidelity doesn't necessarily mean you're a sexist.
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    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Worse things have happened in Theatres.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    If revoking means anything then it is the stop the entire process.

    If you resubmit 1 hour later then a new 2 year process starts.

    Exactly. A new process. From scratch.

    Anything negotiated in the previous attempt is up for grabs.
    In theory. In practice it wouldn't happen. Because if you reopen the negotiation on the sofa, then I reopen the negotiation on the armchair.

    Negotiation is about narrowing differences, not widening them.

    But I'm guessing you've never had to do it.
    There's a big difference between a commercial negotiation and a a political negotiation. Companies are essentially run as dictatorships, whereas if Theresa May pulled the revoke-reinvoke trick and then came back to Westminster saying, "I'm not going to give a running commentary," the EU would quickly find there was a new principal sitting on the other side of the table.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Negotiation is about narrowing differences, not widening them.

    Until one side plays silly buggers.
    Which no one serious does in a serious negotiation.

    Have you ever been in one?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052
    edited November 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates.

    Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    It's a net positive for the Eurozone because, as a goods export oriented economy, it makes their exports cheaper.
    Erm, aren't only parts of it export orientated (e.g Germany)? Surely a falling Euro will exacerbate the differences within the Eurozone?

    Well, the change in export levels in the periphery has been one of the most under-remarked upon developments in the Eurozone in the last eight years. Here's exports as a percent of GDP:
    Country Name    2009    2015
    France 25.5 31.4
    Germany 32.9 39.1
    Italy 23.1 27.0
    Portugal 34.0 39.6
    Spain 23.8 30.7
    United Kingdom 29.2 29.4
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,923

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    I am in two minds about this. I like common courtesy and outside of protest or argument or fibbing in a campaign (coughcoughGovecoughcough) there's no real need to be rude, and Pence has the same rights as anybody else to peaceably go about his business unmolested - he hasn't broken the law.

    But the statement "If a politician cannot go to the theatre...without being harangued or booed...why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?" is somewhat uninformed. Politicians have been booed by theatre audiences for centuries. It comes with the territory.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,931
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
    It happened at the curtain call after the performance.

    Safe space safe spaaaaaaaaaaaaace.
    The report I saw was that references were made and booing from the audience was evident for most of the performance, before at the end the cast took it upon themselves to publically criticise their guest. That's really not how to treat people enjoying an evening at the theatre.

    Whatever happened to good manners and basic decency? Certain 'liberal' types seem to think that these are things that also belong in the past.
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    viewcode said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?

    I am in two minds about this. I like common courtesy and outside of protest or argument or fibbing in a campaign (coughcoughGovecoughcough) there's no real need to be rude, and Pence has the same rights as anybody else to peaceably go about his business unmolested - he hasn't broken the law.

    But the statement "If a politician cannot go to the theatre...without being harangued or booed...why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?" is somewhat uninformed. Politicians have been booed by theatre audiences for centuries. It comes with the territory.
    It was a question not a statement. If we want to treat politicians like crap, we'll get crap politicians.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Which no one serious does in a serious negotiation.

    But you're proposing exactly that.

    This is tedious.

    We agree extending the deadline is bad.

    You think revocation is extension, therefore not allowed

    I think revocation resets, not extends the deadline, so could be allowed.

    Until the ECJ opines, neither of us will know who is right, although we could have a wager. I have a theoretical £10 of someone else's money to play with.

    And as for the "size of your negotiations", I have negotiated exactly the same number of Article 50 invocations as you, so are you done willy waving?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Worse things have happened in Theatres.
    I literally can't think of anything worse that has happened to an American politician in a theatre than Pence being booed.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,923

    Apparently the euro has had it's worst run in years and is expected to reach parity with the dollar next week. Commentators are expecting it to continue it's decline into the year end as the US is expected to increase their interest rates. Is this a real threat for Europe as some are saying or do they have anything they can do to mitigate the fall

    Just a point, if the falling euro is good for the EU why do so many remainers say the falling pound is bad for the UK

    Your first point ("...Is this a real threat for Europe...") assumed that a falling euro was bad for the EU

    Your second point ("...if the falling euro is good for the EU...") assumed that a falling euro was good for the EU
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    viewcode said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    Not sure why you are laughing. If a politician cannot go to the theatre either with or without his wife without being harangued or booed by the cast or the audience why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?
    I am in two minds about this. I like common courtesy and outside of protest or argument or fibbing in a campaign (coughcoughGovecoughcough) there's no real need to be rude, and Pence has the same rights as anybody else to peaceably go about his business unmolested - he hasn't broken the law.

    But the statement "If a politician cannot go to the theatre...without being harangued or booed...why would anybody of any ability want to be a politician?" is somewhat uninformed. Politicians have been booed by theatre audiences for centuries. It comes with the territory.
    It was a question not a statement. If we want to treat politicians like crap, we'll get crap politicians.
    We do anyway, Mr Garner. Can you think of a single member of this Government who is any use to anybody?
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    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
    It happened at the curtain call after the performance.

    Safe space safe spaaaaaaaaaaaaace.
    The report I saw was that references were made and booing from the audience was evident for most of the performance, before at the end the cast took it upon themselves to publically criticise their guest. That's really not how to treat people enjoying an evening at the theatre.

    Whatever happened to good manners and basic decency? Certain 'liberal' types seem to think that these are things that also belong in the past.
    You can see what the guy from the cast said here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/19/mike-pence-booed-at-hamilton-performance-then-hears-diversity-plea

    Seemed perfectly gracious to me.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,345
    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody know where TSE is sitting on Strictly?

    He's not a contestant nor one of the judges or in the band so, I am guessing, he'll be in the audience
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    I'd drunk a bottle of red to drown my sorrows and now instead it's party time!!!

    TSE will be the one voted out this week on strictly
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at Trump's tweet on the whole hamilton saga. 'The theatre should always be a safe....' Looks like it's not just sections of the left who want a 'safe space' away from opinions they don't like.

    I'd be more than a little peeved if, having managed to get the impossible tickets for the hottest Broadway show in town, the performance was punctuated by the cast turning disparagingly on a VIP in the audience.

    That isn't the performance I'd paid to watch, it's not a comedy club.
    It happened at the curtain call after the performance.

    Safe space safe spaaaaaaaaaaaaace.
    The report I saw was that references were made and booing from the audience was evident for most of the performance, before at the end the cast took it upon themselves to publically criticise their guest. That's really not how to treat people enjoying an evening at the theatre.

    Whatever happened to good manners and basic decency? Certain 'liberal' types seem to think that these are things that also belong in the past.
    Delicate flower.

    Perhaps someone should have grabbed Pence's pussy instead. Is that more the preferred etiquette these days?
This discussion has been closed.