This article is very interesting, on Trump's use of data and message. Particularly sobering for PBers like me who insisted Trump had no idea how to play the election game and didn't know what he was doing e.g. going to Penn at the end when it was clearly lost (yes @plato we should have opened our ears more).
It's all about the fact that older, white voters always turn out more heavily than other types of voters, both in the UK and the US. Simple but true. They still regard it as a duty to vote.
Yes, but there was more, they identified:
" “disenfranchised new Republicans”: younger than traditional party loyalists and less likely to live in metropolitan areas. They share Bannon’s populist spirit and care more than other Republicans about three big issues: law and order, immigration, and wages."
Shit, I've just run a projection based on current votes reported in the Western states and Stein is going to get 1.01% of the vote. Other voters (So any other than Hillary, Trump, McMullin, Stein) would need to total a completely improbable 1.6 million to get Stein below 1% (there was 490,000 in 2012)
The one show attacking government policy now. Watch.
Wtf??? The one show on the BBC just did what was basically an opinion piece on government policy, with a bit at the end "and the government says this" with huge cynisism in his voice.
This article is very interesting, on Trump's use of data and message. Particularly sobering for PBers like me who insisted Trump had no idea how to play the election game and didn't know what he was doing e.g. going to Penn at the end when it was clearly lost (yes @plato we should have opened our ears more).
It's all about the fact that older, white voters always turn out more heavily than other types of voters, both in the UK and the US. Simple but true. They still regard it as a duty to vote.
Weirdly enough white working class people had low turnout as a group historically until this presidential election.
The above model if you remember screamed a Trump victory when I entered the leaked portions of the national exit poll.
The leaked numbers from Steve Kornacki if you remember where very Trumpy and they correctly predicted a Trump victory, I calculated it said a 46-46 tie nationally which was close to the final result.
Shit, I've just run a projection based on current votes reported in the Western states and Stein is going to get 1.01% of the vote. Other voters (So any other than Hillary, Trump, McMullin, Stein) would need to total a completely improbable 1.6 million to get Stein below 1% (there was 490,000 in 2012)
£300 pound loss this election
Is there no market to lay it off, especially since most won't have done the calculation.
Shit, I've just run a projection based on current votes reported in the Western states and Stein is going to get 1.01% of the vote. Other voters (So any other than Hillary, Trump, McMullin, Stein) would need to total a completely improbable 1.6 million to get Stein below 1% (there was 490,000 in 2012)
£300 pound loss this election
Is there no market to lay it off, especially since most won't have done the calculation.
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
Ooh, I hadn't factored in other states yet to declare postal/ provisional votes. Anyone have an idea how many are outstanding?
The one show attacking government policy now. Watch.
Wtf??? The one show on the BBC just did what was basically an opinion piece on government policy, with a bit at the end "and the government says this" with huge cynisism in his voice.
are you surprised?
No this went further than normal liberal leaning bias it was like a guardian columnist documentary. They must thinknk May is a joke or something to think they will get away with it.
Is there an Indiana out there this time round (Opposite sides ofc)
?
A state that will almost certainly shift back DEM next election.
Indiana was that in 2008-12.
Currently it's not obvious.
Trump will now be President and as long as he delivers on some promises to blue collar workers and doesn't screw up the economy he might gain states that he lost this time (N.H, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado).
Don't forget the media was in the bag for Hillary 100% all the time and painted Trump as a racist crazy stupid madman, that won't be repeated in 2020 now that Trump won.
Trump will now be judged by his record in office not by his past statements.
a 570 - 0 Clinton comeback I expect - according to 619 - maybe 623 next time we see him.
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
Ooh, I hadn't factored in other states yet to declare postal/ provisional votes. Anyone have an idea how many are outstanding?
This article is very interesting, on Trump's use of data and message. Particularly sobering for PBers like me who insisted Trump had no idea how to play the election game and didn't know what he was doing e.g. going to Penn at the end when it was clearly lost (yes @plato we should have opened our ears more).
The one show attacking government policy now. Watch.
Wtf??? The one show on the BBC just did what was basically an opinion piece on government policy, with a bit at the end "and the government says this" with huge cynisism in his voice.
It was all about Peterborough's problem with having a shortage of housing and existing tenants getting moved out to pay for higher paying council tenants. No mention of its biggest cause, the fact that "In the past decade 24,000 immigrants moved into this city. That is more than one in eight of the population". http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22339080
Traumatised by election results, don't understand US voting system, perplexed by voting patterns, electoral colleges and turnout, then this isn't for you.
Bill Mitchell CBS News: "Democrats who polled for Hillary never showed up."
Lol, I seem to recall someone saying (about 100 times) that would happen.
It does seem a case less of Brexit and more one of EICIPM.
Maybe the lesson to be drawn is "yes my side is crap but yours is worse" is not a winner.
The coalition of voters was closer to Brexit than EICIPM. Trump and Leave won the white working and lower middle class, Cameron and Hillary both won graduates. Although it is correct to state that worse than expected turnout by the base did not help Ed Miliband or Hillary
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
Ooh, I hadn't factored in other states yet to declare postal/ provisional votes. Anyone have an idea how many are outstanding?
There seems to be some free money out there as as the short odds bets are pretty well guaranteed. the only one to be careful of is the trump 47% percent thing as I reckon it could come in at about 46.98%
Is it just me or did Trump meeting Obama today look like Boris did the day after EU ref? Shellshocked. I think both The Donald and Boris wanted to make it very close to boost their brand with the result being a very narrow loss, I don't think either really wanted to actually win!
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
Ooh, I hadn't factored in other states yet to declare postal/ provisional votes. Anyone have an idea how many are outstanding?
Dunno, probably more Steiny than normal tho
If I wasn't so knackered I would redo the analysis on a county by county level as I think the most pro stein counties have declared. Don't think it will make a difference though
Is it just me or did Trump meeting Obama today look like Boris did the day after EU ref? Shellshocked. I think both The Donald and Boris wanted to make it very close to boost their brand with the result being a very narrow loss, I don't think either really wanted to actually win!
That may be right. If so Trump probably won't run in 2020.
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
Ooh, I hadn't factored in other states yet to declare postal/ provisional votes. Anyone have an idea how many are outstanding?
There seems to be some free money out there as as the short odds bets are pretty well guaranteed. the only one to be careful of is the trump 47% percent thing as I reckon it could come in at about 46.98%
I'd agree with that assesment
New Hampshire looks safe enough even with absentee to come. (Shd add to the margin if anything)
President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare legislation, the Affordable Care Act – also known as Obamacare – saw its highest number of sign-ups on the federal exchange so far this year on Wednesday, the day after the US elections
Bill Mitchell CBS News: "Democrats who polled for Hillary never showed up."
Lol, I seem to recall someone saying (about 100 times) that would happen.
It does seem a case less of Brexit and more one of EICIPM.
Maybe the lesson to be drawn is "yes my side is crap but yours is worse" is not a winner.
The coalition of voters was closer to Brexit than EICIPM. Trump and Leave won the white working and lower middle class, Cameron and Hillary both won graduates. Although it is correct to state that worse than expected turnout by the base did not help Ed Miliband or Hillary
Correct.
The demographics are similar, the metropolitan, provincial and rural clustering is similar and the prime motivations are the same.
I understood the argument beforehand that it might be like Brexit, but was not sure that it would read across to the USA.
Now I find myself wondering where else it will show up, and fully expect Renzi to lose in Italy's referendum. These things have a habit of snowballing.
We started off as supposedly odd, yet now the American Union has just voted the same way as us. The more it happens, the more normal it seems.
Bill Mitchell CBS News: "Democrats who polled for Hillary never showed up."
Lol, I seem to recall someone saying (about 100 times) that would happen.
It does seem a case less of Brexit and more one of EICIPM.
Maybe the lesson to be drawn is "yes my side is crap but yours is worse" is not a winner.
The coalition of voters was closer to Brexit than EICIPM. Trump and Leave won the white working and lower middle class, Cameron and Hillary both won graduates. Although it is correct to state that worse than expected turnout by the base did not help Ed Miliband or Hillary
Correct.
The demographics are similar, the metropolitan, provincial and rural clustering is similar and the prime motivations are the same.
I understood the argument beforehand that it might be like Brexit, but was not sure that it would read across to the USA.
Now I find myself wondering where else it will show up, and fully expect Renzi to lose in Italy's referendum. These things have a habit of snowballing.
We started off as supposedly odd, yet now the American Union has just voted the same way as us. The more it happens, the more normal it seems.
The closest parallel between Trump and Brexit is that in both cases the winning side lost the popular vote.
President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare legislation, the Affordable Care Act – also known as Obamacare – saw its highest number of sign-ups on the federal exchange so far this year on Wednesday, the day after the US elections
No rescission health insurance might become incredibly valuable.
Bill Mitchell CBS News: "Democrats who polled for Hillary never showed up."
Lol, I seem to recall someone saying (about 100 times) that would happen.
It does seem a case less of Brexit and more one of EICIPM.
Maybe the lesson to be drawn is "yes my side is crap but yours is worse" is not a winner.
The coalition of voters was closer to Brexit than EICIPM. Trump and Leave won the white working and lower middle class, Cameron and Hillary both won graduates. Although it is correct to state that worse than expected turnout by the base did not help Ed Miliband or Hillary
Correct.
The demographics are similar, the metropolitan, provincial and rural clustering is similar and the prime motivations are the same.
I understood the argument beforehand that it might be like Brexit, but was not sure that it would read across to the USA.
Now I find myself wondering where else it will show up, and fully expect Renzi to lose in Italy's referendum. These things have a habit of snowballing.
We started off as supposedly odd, yet now the American Union has just voted the same way as us. The more it happens, the more normal it seems.
Indeed, it is a coalition of rural and declining industrial areas versus big cities and wealthy suburbs and that applies across most of the west at the moment
Is it just me or did Trump meeting Obama today look like Boris did the day after EU ref? Shellshocked. I think both The Donald and Boris wanted to make it very close to boost their brand with the result being a very narrow loss, I don't think either really wanted to actually win!
That may be right. If so Trump probably won't run in 2020.
I think his ego will probably see him run again unless his ratings are abysmal but certainly Pence being the GOP candidate in 2020 may be worth a punt
More seriously, let's not write off the Dems too soon as far too many commentators are doing. Yes, right now they are in a shambles. They have lost Congress, the White House, half their gubernatorial strength and shortly will be losing what vestige of control they have of the Supreme Court.
However, the fact remains that in all but one Presidiential election in the last 28 years, they have won the popular vote. That single, staggering fact reveals they still have a solid base of support to draw on and are still an extremely powerful force. In a candidate who wasn't considered the most corrupt, dishonest and incompetent politician since the time of Nixon, they are still more than capable of winning the White House. Indeed, it's hard to imagine that any other candidate would not have done so this time given how close it was in the three vital, usually safely Democratic states.
Whether they will calm down enough to see this, or whether they will choose to follow Labour's leadership pattern of picking a millionaire idiot whose family got them into politics with a certifiable lunatic with extremist links, I don't know. But the opportunity is there if the right person comes forward to seize it.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Now why would an international marxist not make the better comparison with Putin and Hitler? Odd that. Hmmmm.
A better comparison but not a good one. Putin is a product of the security services who inherited a country on its knees and through a mixture of tenacity, cunning, statecraft and guile has brought it made it a position where it commands, if not yet fully earns, respect.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Edit - it is also worth pointing out that Hitler and Mussolini were not elected. One was appointed by the senile President on the advice of his notoriously corrupt son, and the other was appointed by the King following threats of public disorder and at the strong urging of the queen dowager.
Moreover, mechanisms exist to control and remove Trump if necessary. Those mechanisms were missing in Italy and rapidly dismantled in Germany.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Wrong.
I made the correct comparison in May of 2015. Trump is the american Berlusconi.
I think that's spot on.
In form but not in substance, I think. Trump could be genuinely transformative.
Possibly. The question is in what way will he be transformative? There are many options. He's a businessman at heart, and not a religious bigot (indeed, many religious strictures are bad for business), so he will not be an Erdogan. I don't think he'll be able to develop the control to become a Putin.
After all, both of those have been 'genuinely transformative' for their countries.
Looking at the positive, he's a businessman, and most successful businessmen are hard-nosed pragmatists - my hope (perhaps vain) is that he'll ignore standard political philosophies and go with what works. If he does that, he stands a chance of being a successful president. Maybe even a transformative one.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Agree, but Silvio was strangely funny too, as long as you are not Italian. He once said of Merkel that she was a 'unf*ckable lard arse.' And Paxman put it to him and his response was comedy gold. Trump won't give so much fun.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
More seriously, let's not write off the Dems too soon as far too many commentators are doing. Yes, right now they are in a shambles. They have lost Congress, the White House, half their gubernatorial strength and shortly will be losing what vestige of control they have of the Supreme Court.
Every Presidential election everyone always says it'll decide the Supreme Court for the next 20-30 years.
It's usually not the case. Apparently Ruth Bader Ginsburg has already hired her 4 clerks until 2018. She didn't retire under Obama and given what she's said about Trump it seems entirely possible she'll just plough on. Whether she makes it until 2020 we'll have to see.
Breyer is only 78 and apparently very fit.
So it may well be that Trump will just replace Scalia like for like and that may be it for quite some time - ie no change from the position for the last 20 years.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
Two thirds of Congress, three quarters of the States. It would be a Constitutional amendment.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
The constitution only requires states to appoint electors on the second? Tuesday in Nov. Method of appointment is up to the states, although a growing number have signed an agreement to instruct their electors to vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote. When 270 EVs worth of states sign it, it comes into force.
More seriously, let's not write off the Dems too soon as far too many commentators are doing. Yes, right now they are in a shambles. They have lost Congress, the White House, half their gubernatorial strength and shortly will be losing what vestige of control they have of the Supreme Court.
Every Presidential election everyone always says it'll decide the Supreme Court for the next 20-30 years.
It's usually not the case. Apparently Ruth Bader Ginsburg has already hired her 4 clerks until 2018. She didn't retire under Obama and given what she's said about Trump it seems entirely possible she'll just plough on. Whether she makes it until 2020 we'll have to see.
Breyer is only 78 and apparently very fit.
So it seems entirely possible Trump will just replace Scalia like for like and that may well be it for quite some time - ie no change from the position for the last 20 years.
Quite possibly. It was said in 2004 as well and that turned out to be wrong.
I'm just doubtful about a 78 year old lasting the course given I imagine this could be a real dogfight.
Of course, when the Dems win back 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue they will probably be able to claw it back again anyway. That's how it works - or rather, operates.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
The constitution only requires states to appoint electors on the second? Tuesday in Nov. Method of appointment is up to the states, although a growing number have signed an agreement to instruct their electors to vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote. When 270 EVs worth of states sign it, it comes into force.
The various states have laws requiring electors to vote for the candidate who won the popular vote in that state, with the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska(?). At the very least their constitutions would require amending. To abolish it entirely - and after all, it is basically a hangover from eighteenth century inability to mount a national campaign making representative democracy the way to go, so it would make sense - would require the works.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Edit - it is also worth pointing out that Hitler and Mussolini were not elected. One was appointed by the senile President on the advice of his notoriously corrupt son, and the other was appointed by the King following threats of public disorder and at the strong urging of the queen dowager.
Moreover, mechanisms exist to control and remove Trump if necessary. Those mechanisms were missing in Italy and rapidly dismantled in Germany.
I understand the point you are making, and somewhat agree with it. My hope - and it is abut a hope - is that Trump the president is more like Trump the businessman, not Trump the showman. And whilst the two coincide, there are significant differences. During the campaign we had the showman. Which will the president be? Or will it be something totally different?
Is it just me or did Trump meeting Obama today look like Boris did the day after EU ref? Shellshocked. I think both The Donald and Boris wanted to make it very close to boost their brand with the result being a very narrow loss, I don't think either really wanted to actually win!
That may be right. If so Trump probably won't run in 2020.
Unless he learns a lot in the job, his campaigning style doesn't really lend itself to defending as the incumbent, anyway.
Bill Mitchell CBS News: "Democrats who polled for Hillary never showed up."
Lol, I seem to recall someone saying (about 100 times) that would happen.
It does seem a case less of Brexit and more one of EICIPM.
Maybe the lesson to be drawn is "yes my side is crap but yours is worse" is not a winner.
The coalition of voters was closer to Brexit than EICIPM. Trump and Leave won the white working and lower middle class, Cameron and Hillary both won graduates. Although it is correct to state that worse than expected turnout by the base did not help Ed Miliband or Hillary
Correct.
The demographics are similar, the metropolitan, provincial and rural clustering is similar and the prime motivations are the same.
I understood the argument beforehand that it might be like Brexit, but was not sure that it would read across to the USA.
Now I find myself wondering where else it will show up, and fully expect Renzi to lose in Italy's referendum. These things have a habit of snowballing.
We started off as supposedly odd, yet now the American Union has just voted the same way as us. The more it happens, the more normal it seems.
The closest parallel between Trump and Brexit is that in both cases the winning side lost the popular vote.
Brexit got slightly over 50% of those who voted, Trump got 47%, the only minor difference was libertarians in the US voted Johnson whereas in the UK they voted Leave. If you add the 3.2% who voted Johnson to the 47% who voted Trump you get to more than 50%
2011: Most powerful man in the world mercilessly mocks television personality. 2017: Said television personality takes over as most powerful man in the world. Unpicks everything his predecessor spent eight years labouring day and night to achieve.
Is it just me or did Trump meeting Obama today look like Boris did the day after EU ref? Shellshocked. I think both The Donald and Boris wanted to make it very close to boost their brand with the result being a very narrow loss, I don't think either really wanted to actually win!
That may be right. If so Trump probably won't run in 2020.
Unless he learns a lot in the job, his campaigning style doesn't really lend itself to defending as the incumbent, anyway.
Trump's best bet is to lose Congress in 2018, then he could end up a more moderate appealing figure, presidents who have control of Congress when first elected eg Carter, Bill Clinton, Obama, almost George W Bush do not always have a very successful first 2 years, however if they lose Congress they are re-elected without too many problems, eg Clinton and Obama if they keep it eg Carter and Bush they have a tough re-election battle
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
Ooh, I hadn't factored in other states yet to declare postal/ provisional votes. Anyone have an idea how many are outstanding?
There seems to be some free money out there as as the short odds bets are pretty well guaranteed. the only one to be careful of is the trump 47% percent thing as I reckon it could come in at about 46.98%
I'd agree with that assesment
New Hampshire looks safe enough even with absentee to come. (Shd add to the margin if anything)
The trouble with Trump is that if you read what he says he seems to be a loose cannon.
As an alpha male he wouldn't last five minutes in the previous years of homo sapiens.
We now live in the brief Age of Technology, and I feel worse today about his winning than I did yesterday. Anything destructive he might get up to would be fast, seconds or even a few years.
But other things are being inflicted by us on our environment that just take a bit longer to act.
More seriously, let's not write off the Dems too soon as far too many commentators are doing. Yes, right now they are in a shambles. They have lost Congress, the White House, half their gubernatorial strength and shortly will be losing what vestige of control they have of the Supreme Court.
Every Presidential election everyone always says it'll decide the Supreme Court for the next 20-30 years.
It's usually not the case. Apparently Ruth Bader Ginsburg has already hired her 4 clerks until 2018. She didn't retire under Obama and given what she's said about Trump it seems entirely possible she'll just plough on. Whether she makes it until 2020 we'll have to see.
Breyer is only 78 and apparently very fit.
So it may well be that Trump will just replace Scalia like for like and that may be it for quite some time - ie no change from the position for the last 20 years.
Kennedy is 80 and will probably retire soon. He's conservative-ish, but sometimes votes with the liberals. Trump would likely replace him with an orthodox conservative.
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
There is no "Nuclear Button"
Let's hope that the nuclear codes that the military provide him with are duds, "Sorry about the typo Mr President"
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
And states can just pass the interstate compact without a constitutional amendment.
Question: when the Democrats controlled the presidency and congress in 2008, could they have changed the voting system to popular vote? Or would they have needed approval from more than half the states?
It's a constitutional thing, so it needs 2/3 in each house plus 75% of states to ratify.
I saw somewhere that eleven states have signed up
California, New York and alot of New England states ?
I'm unsure why I've never seen this before, but I've jut come across Google's RFC2324 page: https://www.google.com/teapot
(A friend of mine says the only people intelligent enough to use the Internet are people who have coded to an RFC. Therefore if you don't understand this comment, unplug your computer and enter the real world. Though I'm still waiting for someone to fully implement RFC 1149: https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc1149 )
Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.
Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Edit - it is also worth pointing out that Hitler and Mussolini were not elected. One was appointed by the senile President on the advice of his notoriously corrupt son, and the other was appointed by the King following threats of public disorder and at the strong urging of the queen dowager.
Moreover, mechanisms exist to control and remove Trump if necessary. Those mechanisms were missing in Italy and rapidly dismantled in Germany.
Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM.
The trouble with Trump is that if you read what he says he seems to be a loose cannon.
As an alpha male he wouldn't last five minutes in the previous years of homo sapiens.
We now live in the brief Age of Technology, and I feel worse today about his winning than I did yesterday. Anything destructive he might get up to would be fast, seconds or even a few years.
But other things are being inflicted by us on our environment that just take a bit longer to act.
But it would take a damn sight more than that to put me off eating & sleeping well.
Comments
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/washington#president
Michigan is probably 95% for Trump, but it won't change the outcome, only for aesthetic reasons for maps.
" “disenfranchised new Republicans”: younger than traditional party loyalists and less likely to live in metropolitan areas. They share Bannon’s populist spirit and care more than other Republicans about three big issues: law and order, immigration, and wages."
£300 pound loss this election
Weirdly enough white working class people had low turnout as a group historically until this presidential election.
In 2012 just 55% voted.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
The above model if you remember screamed a Trump victory when I entered the leaked portions of the national exit poll.
The leaked numbers from Steve Kornacki if you remember where very Trumpy and they correctly predicted a Trump victory, I calculated it said a 46-46 tie nationally which was close to the final result.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/26/mich-voters-request-absentee-ballots/92808966/
The seven-percentage-point gap between the returned Democratic and Republican absentee ballots is consistent across the state and even when African-Americans and voters under the age of 60 are taken out of the equation, Grebner said.
I want to thank everyone for the hundreds of tweets warning me that I was about to get hundreds of tweets. They're here. @johnlewisretail
https://twitter.com/RTUKnews/status/796788411269083136
Which is true if you look at the map, there is almost nothing between D.C. and Los Angeles for the democrats apart from Chicago.
They had plenty of rural areas even 20 years ago.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/796796262960037888
I made the correct comparison in May of 2015.
Trump is the american Berlusconi.
CBS News: "Democrats who polled for Hillary never showed up."
Lol, I seem to recall someone saying (about 100 times) that would happen.
Maybe the lesson to be drawn is "yes my side is crap but yours is worse" is not a winner.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22339080
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37921356
http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/11/14925758_1241461129244733_8189955019371228621_n-640x480.jpg
New Hampshire looks safe enough even with absentee to come. (Shd add to the margin if anything)
President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare legislation, the Affordable Care Act – also known as Obamacare – saw its highest number of sign-ups on the federal exchange so far this year on Wednesday, the day after the US elections
The demographics are similar, the metropolitan, provincial and rural clustering is similar and the prime motivations are the same.
I understood the argument beforehand that it might be like Brexit, but was not sure that it would read across to the USA.
Now I find myself wondering where else it will show up, and fully expect Renzi to lose in Italy's referendum. These things have a habit of snowballing.
We started off as supposedly odd, yet now the American Union has just voted the same way as us. The more it happens, the more normal it seems.
Odd that. Hmmmm.
However, the fact remains that in all but one Presidiential election in the last 28 years, they have won the popular vote. That single, staggering fact reveals they still have a solid base of support to draw on and are still an extremely powerful force. In a candidate who wasn't considered the most corrupt, dishonest and incompetent politician since the time of Nixon, they are still more than capable of winning the White House. Indeed, it's hard to imagine that any other candidate would not have done so this time given how close it was in the three vital, usually safely Democratic states.
Whether they will calm down enough to see this, or whether they will choose to follow Labour's leadership pattern of picking a millionaire idiot whose family got them into politics with a certifiable lunatic with extremist links, I don't know. But the opportunity is there if the right person comes forward to seize it.
'We came forward with a modest and reasonable plan to put an end to deflationary austerity, which has wrecked our society and economy.'
I wonder if he realised the significance of that pause?
However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.
The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
Edit - it is also worth pointing out that Hitler and Mussolini were not elected. One was appointed by the senile President on the advice of his notoriously corrupt son, and the other was appointed by the King following threats of public disorder and at the strong urging of the queen dowager.
Moreover, mechanisms exist to control and remove Trump if necessary. Those mechanisms were missing in Italy and rapidly dismantled in Germany.
After all, both of those have been 'genuinely transformative' for their countries.
Looking at the positive, he's a businessman, and most successful businessmen are hard-nosed pragmatists - my hope (perhaps vain) is that he'll ignore standard political philosophies and go with what works. If he does that, he stands a chance of being a successful president. Maybe even a transformative one.
*If* ...
The fun of Silvio
It's usually not the case. Apparently Ruth Bader Ginsburg has already hired her 4 clerks until 2018. She didn't retire under Obama and given what she's said about Trump it seems entirely possible she'll just plough on. Whether she makes it until 2020 we'll have to see.
Breyer is only 78 and apparently very fit.
So it may well be that Trump will just replace Scalia like for like and that may be it for quite some time - ie no change from the position for the last 20 years.
I'm just doubtful about a 78 year old lasting the course given I imagine this could be a real dogfight.
Of course, when the Dems win back 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue they will probably be able to claw it back again anyway. That's how it works - or rather, operates.
https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/796406250833518593
2011: Most powerful man in the world mercilessly mocks television personality.
2017: Said television personality takes over as most powerful man in the world. Unpicks everything his predecessor spent eight years labouring day and night to achieve.
Best served cold.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-people-hate-the-electoral-college-but-its-not-going-away-soon/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/us/politics/the-electoral-college-is-hated-by-many-so-why-does-it-endure.html
(Incidentally this compact people are talking about is signed by ten states, not eleven - the confusion is over Washington DC.)
As an alpha male he wouldn't last five minutes in the previous years of homo sapiens.
We now live in the brief Age of Technology, and I feel worse today about his winning than I did yesterday. Anything destructive he might get up to would be fast, seconds or even a few years.
But other things are being inflicted by us on our environment that just take a bit longer to act.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/the_democratic_party_establishment_is_finished_after_trump.html
"Sorry about the typo Mr President"
Hillary is going to end up with 48% of the vote
I can't see even half the states signing up tbh.
I'm unsure why I've never seen this before, but I've jut come across Google's RFC2324 page:
https://www.google.com/teapot
(A friend of mine says the only people intelligent enough to use the Internet are people who have coded to an RFC. Therefore if you don't understand this comment, unplug your computer and enter the real world. Though I'm still waiting for someone to fully implement RFC 1149: https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc1149 )
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