He seems to be advertising for 4000 political appointees....?
They shouldn't be advertised for?
He says 'help wanted'...!
Yes, and?
I suppose I just find it a bit bizarre to advertise for 'appointees'. It includes ambassadors; do they have to go through an interview process? I genuinely don't know.
He seems to be advertising for 4000 political appointees....?
They shouldn't be advertised for?
He says 'help wanted'...!
Yes, and?
I suppose I just find it a bit bizarre to advertise for 'appointees'. It includes ambassadors; do they have to go through an interview process? I genuinely don't know.
I would imagine they would be interviewed, yes!
I wonder what the selection criteria are for Ambassador to Mexico? Thick skin, strong backbone...?
He seems to be advertising for 4000 political appointees....?
They shouldn't be advertised for?
He says 'help wanted'...!
Yes, and?
I suppose I just find it a bit bizarre to advertise for 'appointees'. It includes ambassadors; do they have to go through an interview process? I genuinely don't know.
I would imagine they would be interviewed, yes!
I wonder what the selection criteria are for Ambassador to Mexico? Thick skin, strong backbone...?
The BBC would do well to rewatch CNN's coverage of the US election. It was absolutely brilliant & they could learn a thing or two from it.
I hear Fox News was similiarly good.
Because it was proper analysis about *numbers* and not 'accessibility' and all that other 'see you Cleggy boyyh!' nonsense.
Probably the sort of thing that goes down well with political geeks? But for the average viewer... endless comparisons of what % Hilary is on vs. Obama 4 years ago and so on... bit of a waste of time.
As an aside- felt like CNN missed a trick by not weighting the size of counties according to population. Their magic wall made it tricky to see how big the vote was in cities which are small on a map.
"You really believe white men have faced systematic oppression on the scale of minorities and women? That societies have been run on an ideology that white men are inferior? That there are systematic barriers with the economic, political, and legal system which have all affected white male opportunities? That culturally, white men have been demonised for centuries?"
If there's anybody obsessed by identity politics and grudges, its you. As this outburst aptly illustrates.
I'm not obsessed with identity politics. This site is. I'm just offering an alternative view on it. It's not really an outburst. If it wasn't mentioned much on this site, I wouldn't be talking about it.
Seriously? You talk endlessly about identity politics.
Yes, because I see it talked about a lot of this site!
Maybe because you talk endlessly about it!
Tbh, a lot of the posts on identity politics aren't responses to me, they are critiques of the left!
Maybe because we who are not on the left are able to see how hollow and divisive identity politics is. I'm what you would say is a minority, and yet I don't want special treatment or status. It is demeaning and creates a sense of resentment among those who don't get it. It creates a barrier between the political haves and have nots. If you can't see that then you're a fool.
Well equally, as someone on the left who understands why identity politics exist, I can say why it isn't 'hollow' and 'divisive', but the that the conditions which led to its creation are. I'm minority too, but given that most minorities have tended to vote for left-wing parties, I'd say that most have a bit of a different view to you. I also don't advocate special treatment or status, either. And somehow, I doubt that the biggest concern the WWC have is feeling like a 'political have not'. I say this as someone who comes from a working class background, and lived in an area where the majority of people were white working class. So that's my experience. Most of the WWC are concerned with bread and butter issues.
You realise that what 'have nots' don't have is generally far more of a bread and butter issue than most of what identity politics rails against, right?
It's amazing that Trump did 2x as many rallies than Hillary, while Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once and only went to Michigan in the very end.
I'm going to make a full tabulation of all the rallies of Trump and Hillary per state and per month, but the numbers are amazing, Hillary was almost not campaigning at all in the second half of October.
It's amazing that Trump did 2x as many rallies than Hillary, while Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once and only went to Michigan in the very end.
I'm going to make a full tabulation of all the rallies of Trump and Hillary per state and per month, but the numbers are amazing, Hillary was almost not campaigning at all in the second half of October.
One thing you can't accuse trump of doing was being lazy on the campaign trail...he was like the Duracell bunny.
It's amazing that Trump did 2x as many rallies than Hillary, while Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once and only went to Michigan in the very end.
I'm going to make a full tabulation of all the rallies of Trump and Hillary per state and per month, but the numbers are amazing, Hillary was almost not campaigning at all in the second half of October.
That's a crappy info graphic, I'd like to see that as a r2 value rather than geometry. And compare against Hillary/Kaine.
The pound is rising quite sharply. Donald Trump has spoken to Theresa May with the prospect of an early meeting to discuss security and trade issues.
At the same time the EU are all at sea and frankly have not adopted the right tone with Trump, particularly Germany.
Today the Estonia government has collapsed and is likely to be replaced with a more pro Russia anti Nato government will the possibility of them leaving the EU.
The result yesterday can only be good for UK and Brexit and very worrying for the EU
These are remarkable days and have been since GE 2015.
How could anyone have written the script - just remarkable and amazing
You really think Estonia is likely to leave the EU?
It's one of the most pro-EU countries in the EU.
That was before the Government collapsed today and is likely to be replaced by a more pro Russia one
Nevertheless, Estonia in 2014 didn't elect a single Eurosceptic MEP (unlike the UK or France, etc,), and has an economy utterly dependent on trade with the EU. According the Eurobarometer survey from July*, just 17% of people have a negative view of the EU.
Further, Russian Estonians are less than a quarter of the total.
If you want to bet on Estonia leaving I'll give you pretty good odds.
* Yes, yes, I know. Still, it's among the lowest of all the published figures.
Estonia is a client state of the EU. They can never leave without destroying their economy.
Immediately after independence, they made the deliberate decision to hitch themselves to Germany and the West, tying their currency to the DM and attracting service businesses for near-shoring.
By and large, it's been a pretty big success.
And Tallinn is very pretty and quaint
Tallinn is gorgeous, as is my Tallinn-born wife
I really can't see Estonia leaving the EU or NATO. The ethnic Russian minority isn't big enough to overcome the ethnic Estonian antipathy (to say the least!) to Russia.
The pound is rising quite sharply. Donald Trump has spoken to Theresa May with the prospect of an early meeting to discuss security and trade issues.
At the same time the EU are all at sea and frankly have not adopted the right tone with Trump, particularly Germany.
Today the Estonia government has collapsed and is likely to be replaced with a more pro Russia anti Nato government will the possibility of them leaving the EU.
The result yesterday can only be good for UK and Brexit and very worrying for the EU
These are remarkable days and have been since GE 2015.
How could anyone have written the script - just remarkable and amazing
You really think Estonia is likely to leave the EU?
It's one of the most pro-EU countries in the EU.
That was before the Government collapsed today and is likely to be replaced by a more pro Russia one
Nevertheless, Estonia in 2014 didn't elect a single Eurosceptic MEP (unlike the UK or France, etc,), and has an economy utterly dependent on trade with the EU. According the Eurobarometer survey from July*, just 17% of people have a negative view of the EU.
Further, Russian Estonians are less than a quarter of the total.
If you want to bet on Estonia leaving I'll give you pretty good odds.
* Yes, yes, I know. Still, it's among the lowest of all the published figures.
Estonia is a client state of the EU. They can never leave without destroying their economy.
Immediately after independence, they made the deliberate decision to hitch themselves to Germany and the West, tying their currency to the DM and attracting service businesses for near-shoring.
By and large, it's been a pretty big success.
And Tallinn is very pretty and quaint
Tallinn is gorgeous, as is my Tallinn-born wife
I really can't see Estonia leaving the EU or NATO. The ethnic Russian minority isn't big enough to overcome the ethnic Estonian antipathy (to say the least!) to Russia.
What odds on Estonia being part of Russia by the end of a Trump administration?
Are you basing that off the website? I think it is just bad design and they are indicating Trump as the projected electoral college winner. Most of the remaining votes to come are from CA.
It's amazing that Trump did 2x as many rallies than Hillary, while Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once and only went to Michigan in the very end.
I'm going to make a full tabulation of all the rallies of Trump and Hillary per state and per month, but the numbers are amazing, Hillary was almost not campaigning at all in the second half of October.
Look forward to see the final result Mr Speedy – will you published on here?
Are you basing that off the website? I think it is just bad design and they are indicating Trump as the projected electoral college winner. Most of the remaining votes to come are from CA.
Yeah it could be the case. No other reason for Clinton to he drifting though.
Are you basing that off the website? I think it is just bad design and they are indicating Trump as the projected electoral college winner. Most of the remaining votes to come are from CA.
Yeah it could be the case. No other reason for Clinton to he drifting though.
It's really annoying, I have £30 ready to collect. Yesterday I could have cashed out at £29.40 and was sorely tempted to do so rather than wait...
Clearly compared with past months Hillary started campaigning a lot, the last week before the election was the only time she managed to come close to Trump in this metric.
It's amazing that Trump did 2x as many rallies than Hillary, while Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once and only went to Michigan in the very end.
I'm going to make a full tabulation of all the rallies of Trump and Hillary per state and per month, but the numbers are amazing, Hillary was almost not campaigning at all in the second half of October.
Look forward to see the final result Mr Speedy – will you published on here?
I already did for the month of November just now, I have posted all other months on PB except October because I was banned for that period.
I think the enormity of his position has already tempered and moderated Trump, both as a man and as a politician. He must still be pinching himself, because I seriously doubt he ever thought he was actually going to win. He has a huge amount of power, and he must use it wisely, with consideration, and he must learn the art of compromise. He will also learn, very quickly, that his words have the power to move international markets, to move people (perhaps physically, back over the southern border?) - and possibly even armies.
He may well turn out to be a revelation, although his critics and opponents - half the country - will never reconcile themselves to his presidency. I genuinely wish him well, and I genuinely and sincerely hope he succeeds.
Ms. Apocalypse, men face systematic discrimination in custody courts and when it comes to distributing public spending for victims of domestic abuse.
Inconvenient truths for lovers of identity politics.
A.K.A. those fonder of being liked on fb than being in govt. power.
Not really. You really believe white men have faced systematic oppression on the scale of minorities and women? That societies have been run on an ideology that white men are inferior? That there are systematic barriers with the economic, political, and legal system which have all affected white male opportunities? That culturally, white men have been demonised for centuries? That's all happened, has it?
Identity politics is the problem IMO. The sooner we stop obsessing about the whole concept, the better.
You can see the intensity of the Trump campaign in all it's glory in October.
Basically when you put all of Trump's campaign rallies on the map it looks even more amazing, you can basically drive from N.Jersey to Lake Michigan and you wouldn't miss a place Trump did not held a rally, same from Naples Florida all the way to the Georgia border.
I think the enormity of his position has already tempered and moderated Trump, both as a man and as a politician. He must still be pinching himself, because I seriously doubt he ever thought he was actually going to win. He has a huge amount of power, and he must use it wisely, with consideration, and he must learn the art of compromise. He will also learn, very quickly, that his words have the power to move international markets, to move people (perhaps physically, back over the southern border?) - and possibly even armies.
He may well turn out to be a revelation, although his critics and opponents - half the country - will never reconcile themselves to his presidency. I genuinely wish him well, and I genuinely and sincerely hope he succeeds.
His demeanour since the election has reminded me of Boris and Gove the day after the referendum. A combination of shock and "Oh crap!"
How Did Hillary Clinton Screw This Up? For Starters, Her Advertising Was All Wrong
Interesting perspective from the Ad-men and so right. You can only say Trump is awful so many times before it loses its potency, to continue spending millions doing the same thing over and over was just barmy.
I think you're the only person on this site that sees me as moderate! Tbh even I don't think I am a moderate. I'm definitely quite left wing, and I'll admit to that!
You'll become more and more right-wing as you get older
How Did Hillary Clinton Screw This Up? For Starters, Her Advertising Was All Wrong
Interesting perspective from the Ad-men and so right. You can only say Trump is awful so many times before it loses its potency, to continue spending millions doing the same thing over and over was just barmy.
Clinton's strategy was to make the election a referendum on Trump. It almost worked but in the last 2 weeks of the campaign Trump finally learned to stay on message, and in particular was smart enough to stay quiet when Comey's letter appeared.
How Did Hillary Clinton Screw This Up? For Starters, Her Advertising Was All Wrong
Interesting perspective from the Ad-men and so right. You can only say Trump is awful so many times before it loses its potency, to continue spending millions doing the same thing over and over was just barmy.
They didn't take account of Trump's unashamedness about saying offensive things and by just repeating them, contributed to the outrage fatigue. A terrible strategy.
Not only that, they have the same absolute vote numbers. Confusing!
It's very misleading, I encountered it four years ago when I was doing a spreadsheet for PB for the prediction competition. The votes still to come in California are mail-in votes I think, and the 100% refers only to ordinary votes on the day.
Don't think so. Trump is 12,000 ahead but there must be a lot of absentee ballots or something like that.
I believe in America postal votes that arrive late but are postmarked before the election count (which is asking for trouble and recalls the Royal Mail football pool frauds of old), and also in many states votes from people who aren't on the list are put aside, and added in later if they can prove that they are registered.
What with the hour long queues and all, it seems the whole election business is much more shambolic in the US than back at home.
Well, one thing's for sure: the winner of the Time Person of the Year award this year is not hard to predict.
James Comey.
Lol.
It's the FBI Wot Won It
I wonder if Clinton getting schlonged by Weiner helped Trump across the line.
No doubt helped and given how close it was in some key states.
Actually in my Average Daily Tracking poll Trump was surging like a rocket until the FBI email story.
I think ironically the Comey letters helped Hillary, because not many saw that Trump was already in poll position to beat her, lots of Hillary voters became complacent.
Hillary actually gained and Trump was losing ground after the first Comey letter in my daily average, not until the weekend did Trump started to close the gap again.
In the state polls too it became plainly obvious that it was shifting Trump way after the weekend, that's why I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance to win far higher than my earlier long term estimate of 10%.
This article is very interesting, on Trump's use of data and message. Particularly sobering for PBers like me who insisted Trump had no idea how to play the election game and didn't know what he was doing e.g. going to Penn at the end when it was clearly lost (yes @plato we should have opened our ears more).
This article is very interesting, on Trump's use of data and message. Particularly sobering for PBers like me who insisted Trump had no idea how to play the election game and didn't know what he was doing e.g. going to Penn at the end when it was clearly lost (yes @plato we should have opened our ears more).
It's all about the fact that older, white voters always turn out more heavily than other types of voters, both in the UK and the US. Simple but true. They still regard it as a duty to vote.
The one show attacking government policy now. Watch.
Wtf??? The one show on the BBC just did what was basically an opinion piece on government policy, with a bit at the end "and the government says this" with huge cynisism in his voice.
Is there an Indiana out there this time round (Opposite sides ofc)
?
A state that will almost certainly shift back DEM next election.
Indiana was that in 2008-12.
Currently it's not obvious.
Trump will now be President and as long as he delivers on some promises to blue collar workers and doesn't screw up the economy he might gain states that he lost this time (N.H, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado).
Don't forget the media was in the bag for Hillary 100% all the time and painted Trump as a racist crazy stupid madman, that won't be repeated in 2020 now that Trump won.
Trump will now be judged by his record in office not by his past statements.
The pound is rising quite sharply. Donald Trump has spoken to Theresa May with the prospect of an early meeting to discuss security and trade issues.
At the same time the EU are all at sea and frankly have not adopted the right tone with Trump, particularly Germany.
Today the Estonia government has collapsed and is likely to be replaced with a more pro Russia anti Nato government will the possibility of them leaving the EU.
The result yesterday can only be good for UK and Brexit and very worrying for the EU
These are remarkable days and have been since GE 2015.
How could anyone have written the script - just remarkable and amazing
You really think Estonia is likely to leave the EU?
It's one of the most pro-EU countries in the EU.
That was before the Government collapsed today and is likely to be replaced by a more pro Russia one
Nevertheless, Estonia in 2014 didn't elect a single Eurosceptic MEP (unlike the UK or France, etc,), and has an economy utterly dependent on trade with the EU. According the Eurobarometer survey from July*, just 17% of people have a negative view of the EU.
Further, Russian Estonians are less than a quarter of the total.
If you want to bet on Estonia leaving I'll give you pretty good odds.
* Yes, yes, I know. Still, it's among the lowest of all the published figures.
The question in the Estonian context is "do you want to be poorer"? That's what all the evidence suggests being closer to Russia means in practice. That's ignoring being close to a quasi-totalitarian state.
The desire to see the demise of the EU sometimes runs ahead of reason. One sometimes wonders if Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sources some of his columns from here.
Comments
Am I missing something ?
But for the average viewer... endless comparisons of what % Hilary is on vs. Obama 4 years ago and so on... bit of a waste of time.
As an aside- felt like CNN missed a trick by not weighting the size of counties according to population. Their magic wall made it tricky to see how big the vote was in cities which are small on a map.
Big lesson here for Labour too.
Hopefully they don't find a million Trump votes dumped in a New Hampshire post box.
https://twitter.com/TheFix/status/796766742987030528
It's amazing that Trump did 2x as many rallies than Hillary, while Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once and only went to Michigan in the very end.
I'm going to make a full tabulation of all the rallies of Trump and Hillary per state and per month, but the numbers are amazing, Hillary was almost not campaigning at all in the second half of October.
I really can't see Estonia leaving the EU or NATO. The ethnic Russian minority isn't big enough to overcome the ethnic Estonian antipathy (to say the least!) to Russia.
Trump recorded the largest share of unionized workers for a Republican since Nixon in 1972.
Not even Reagan managed to get as many union votes as Trump got.
How????
- had never held elected office
- said things that poitlicisns never did
- wasn't necessarily perfect
Was seriously poor strategy by the Dems.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
http://adage.com/article/campaign-trail/hillary-clinton-wrong/306676/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social
How Did Hillary Clinton Screw This Up? For Starters, Her Advertising Was All Wrong
Hillary
Florida 5
Pennsylvania 3
Michigan 3
Ohio 2
N.Carolina 2
N.H 1
Nevada 1
Arizona 1
Total 18
Trump
Florida 6
Pennsylvania 4
N.Carolina 2
N.H 2
Michigan 2
Virginia 1
Minnesota 1
Iowa 1
Nevada 1
Colorado 1
Total 21
Clearly compared with past months Hillary started campaigning a lot, the last week before the election was the only time she managed to come close to Trump in this metric.
AL 11813 -> Trump
AZ 26923 -> Trump
GA 17411 -> Trump
IN 16214 -> Trump
OH and a couple of other states 29000, 15481, 38037
= 154879
And headed back to the NY Times proj vote clock for therapy.
Seems to suggest Clinton margin will increase not go down...
He may well turn out to be a revelation, although his critics and opponents - half the country - will never reconcile themselves to his presidency. I genuinely wish him well, and I genuinely and sincerely hope he succeeds.
Hillary
Ohio 5
Florida 3
Pennsylvania 2
Iowa 2
N.H. 1
N.C 1
Nevada 1
Arizona 1
Michigan 1
Total 17
Trump
Florida 8
Ohio 6
Pennsylvania 6
N.C 4
Colorado 3
Nevada 3
Arizona 2
Michigan 2
Wisconsin 2
N.H 2
Maine 2
Virginia 1
N.Mexico 1
Total 42
You can see the intensity of the Trump campaign in all it's glory in October.
Basically when you put all of Trump's campaign rallies on the map it looks even more amazing, you can basically drive from N.Jersey to Lake Michigan and you wouldn't miss a place Trump did not held a rally, same from Naples Florida all the way to the Georgia border.
Clinton has reached 60 million votes:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/california
Not only that, they have the same absolute vote numbers. Confusing!
I am sure the Cali counters will enjoy their long relaxed weekend in the sunshine
In 2012... an extra 8 million votes counted after election day... enough to add 0.8% to Obama's total.
A similar 'blue shift' could push Trump below 47%.... Which is currently 3-1 on betfair.
DYOR.
It's the FBI Wot Won It
I wonder if Clinton getting schlonged by Weiner helped Trump across the line.
What with the hour long queues and all, it seems the whole election business is much more shambolic in the US than back at home.
Hillary
Florida 12
Ohio 12
Pennsylvania 9
Michigan 6
N.C 6
Nevada 6
Iowa 4
N.H 4
Arizona 2
Colorado 1
Virginia 1
Nebraska 1
Missouri 1
Wisconsin 1
Total 66
Trump
Florida 23
Pennsylvania 15
Ohio 13
N.C 13
Virginia 9
Colorado 8
Michigan 7
Iowa 7
N.H 6
Nevada 5
Arizona 4
Wisconsin 4
Texas 3
Maine 3
Mississippi 1
Washington 1
Connecticut 1
Total 123
And I may have missed a Trump rally or two because of the sheer volume.
http://www.gq.com/story/hope-hicks-mystifying-triumph-donald-trump
Set to be a key gatekeeper at age 27!
Indiana was that in 2008-12.
I think ironically the Comey letters helped Hillary, because not many saw that Trump was already in poll position to beat her, lots of Hillary voters became complacent.
Hillary actually gained and Trump was losing ground after the first Comey letter in my daily average, not until the weekend did Trump started to close the gap again.
In the state polls too it became plainly obvious that it was shifting Trump way after the weekend, that's why I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance to win far higher than my earlier long term estimate of 10%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/trump-s-data-team-saw-a-different-america-and-they-were-right
Confirms the view that Brexit was the model.
Would be funny if PaddyPower? has to pay out a third time on a 2-horse race.
Trump will now be President and as long as he delivers on some promises to blue collar workers and doesn't screw up the economy he might gain states that he lost this time (N.H, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado).
Don't forget the media was in the bag for Hillary 100% all the time and painted Trump as a racist crazy stupid madman, that won't be repeated in 2020 now that Trump won.
Trump will now be judged by his record in office not by his past statements.
I will keep you updated
true figure is a little lower due to minor candidates
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125828948
The auto-overround bot is cleaning up on that market.
The desire to see the demise of the EU sometimes runs ahead of reason. One sometimes wonders if Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sources some of his columns from here.