Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Anatomy of parts of the biggest ever political betting event
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Anatomy of parts of the biggest ever political betting event
"undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper&&(window.datawrapper={}),window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"]={},window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"].embedDeltas={"100":708.8,"200":626.8,"300":599.8,"400":572.8,"500":572.8,"600":545.8,"700":545.8,"800":545.8,"900":545.8,"1000":545.8},window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-Jbhd9"),window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])"Jbhd9"==b&&(window.datawrapper["Jbhd9"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px")});"undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper&&(window.datawrapper={}),window.datawrapper["5UQqS"]={},window.datawrapper["5UQqS"].embedDeltas={"100":708.8,"200":626.8,"300":599.8,"400":599.8,"500":572.8,"600":572.8,"700":572.8,"800":572.8,"900":572.8,"1000":572.8},window.datawrapper["5UQqS"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-5UQqS"),window.datawrapper["5UQqS"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["5UQqS"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["5UQqS"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])"5UQqS"==b&&(window.datawrapper["5UQqS"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px")});
Comments
Pretty incredible that Clinton's two losses--the '08 dem. primary (arguable, to be fair) and 2016--were popular vote victories
Has listed the special interest groups, who helped her lose.
2008 - 62.2%
2004 - 60.7%
2012 - 58.6%
2016 - 55.8%
2000 - 55.3%
The little people spoke out loudest in 2012 and 2004. This year, not so much.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/can-trust-people-trump-im-no-longer-sure/
Of course Kevin Spacey and Robin Page are watching this open-mouthed.
Hillary = Al Gore.
Following on, the moderate, enlightened, rational, civilised politicians in the West have given us, variously, the Euro, the Banking Crisis, the Iraq War, mass migration, and supranational government.
Is it any wonder that lots of people want to try alternatives?
I'm sure Parris knows this but for people like him it's been a VERY traumatic six months... I can understand if the trauma of it all has sent him a bit loopy.
Honestly though, maybe its not as prevalent as it sometimes seem, but it does feel sometimes like they really like their dynasties over there.
Ana Navaro for instance probably didn't shift a single vote in Florida apart from her own.
And look at the humiliating number of votes for Eggs McMuffin outside of Utah.
People say a 50-50ish election result shows a country is "divided". But in many ways it at least shows two evenly matched sides who could both have had a chance of victory.
A 60-40 or 70-30 split is in many ways more divisive. The victor has no need to appeal to the 30% or 40% - they don't need the votes. So why reach out to them? Stuff 'em.
And the losers have no sense that they could win by democratic means. It would require a huge swing. They have no buy-in to The System. Then you are forced to look for ways of having your voice heard beyond the ballot. Things get pretty dangerous at that point.
You often see this pattern in developing countries, particularly with imbalanced social or ethnic groups. The US has done very well, given its demographics, has done very well to avoid this kind of division. If we had 60-40 splits primarily based on racial polarisation, that would be a far more divided country than a 50-50 one.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796396102450696192
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/scores2.html
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/796312954912260096
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/796309931347558401
I took it for granted that she had, until I logged on here again to find that Mr Trump has won. Oops.
I do hope all those PBers with money at stake didn't go to bed when I did!
(edited to add: good evening, everyone)
What a year - and there's so much fun to be had next year with a bunch of Euro elections.
I get the point about older people not having to live with the consequences long term, and how that might be frustrating, but it seems to be the danger of unfairness from attempting to draw the line would be far higher than the iniquity of one adult gets one vote, even if said adult will be around for less time.
Particularly when the real problem is not that old people vote one way and young people another, but that young people don't bother to turn out. That is a far bigger problem, and one which has annoyed me through to now as I prepare to exit my 20s.
(((Rob Ford))) @robfordmancs 30m30 minutes ago
(((Rob Ford))) Retweeted (((Rob Ford)))
If your a Lab MP representing a Northern seat that voted Brexit, those vote patterns should rightly terrify you.
The status quo represented by Clinton was not an appealing option so I can understand the appeal of Trump. He may of course be a catastrophe and lead us into world war 3.
But of the two, Clinton seems more likely to go down that road
, attempting to preserve a broken hegenomy.
I think there is a silent frustration with the extremes of identity politics, social justice warriors etc. I feel it. There is some satisfaction with nutcase feminists, Islamic fundamentalists taking a kicking. It was all going too far.
I would have voted Clinton regardless, for the same reasons I voted remain. But the status quo isn't working.
At least no one can say politicians are all the same, its boring etc.
It took 24 years to count the votes and Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan won.
The populist wave was coming for a long time, Trump just rode it straight to the most powerful political office in the world.
I totally believed him - and of course the Deplorable Militia were arm twisting/giving lifts all on their own. There was a lovely anecdote from Amish country re needing a lift to the polling place. 1500 car drivers came forward to take them.
Alec Baldwin
"The Wyoming River Valley of Pennsylvania — which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre — voted for Mr. Trump. It had voted for Mr. Obama by double digits."
Biden would have held Penn imho. That would given 248-259 on current results if nothing else changed.
It screams Liza Warren.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/how-trump-pushed-the-election-map-to-the-right.html
Good evening, Miss JGP.
Hawaii was the most pro-Hillary state, 62% (excluding DC's 92%!).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVYI9HO6aF0
Trump won the E.V by the largest margin for a Republican since 1988.
Dominated the Mid-West almost as good as Reagan in 1984, that's a decisive shift in one large region.
Trump and people like yourself would have been yelling about a "rigged election" and "the will of the people being frustrated" by the "elite" blah blah blah. The comical thing is you don't even recognise your own hypocrisy.