Fairly comfortable HOLD for the Tories in Witney then despite the constituency being full of bad losers and multi-millionaire lawyers obsessed with staying in the EU.
Guess the Remonaers will need something else to put a stop to Brexit... Next!
Fairly comfortable HOLD for the Tories in Witney then despite the constituency being full of bad losers and people obsessed multi-millionaire lawyers obsessed with staying in the EU.
Guess the Remonaers will need something else to put a stop to Brexit... Next!
Well, we are still waiting on the High Court judgment (and the inevitable appeal).
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
It's very unusual for governments to put on support in by-elections, however good the polling is.
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
Michael Gove telling experts "a little humility is needed." That's hilarious.
More than any other politician, the appearance of Gove on the screen makes me want to punch it. There's something about that gurning smug self satisfied physog.
Mr. Sandpit, it's perplexing how/why UKIP achieved so much success, seemed on the cusp of becoming more significant and yet is now tearing itself apart.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
A single issue protest party where the single issue is on its way out. No (respectable) philosophical tradition to fall back upon and little to unite them other than dislike of the EU. Both their principal politician and their principal financial backer always saw and treated the party as their personal plaything rather than a genuine member-based organisation. And their sudden electoral success and lack of 'bottom' attracted carpet-baggers and others interested in political office for the wrong reasons.
Their only purpose now is as a protest vehicle against "too soft" Brexit, which will probably see a return to their earlier days with a small number of very vocal very agitated fanatics failing to make much impact amongst the wider population, who are mostly watching and anxiously waiting to see how things turn out.
I agree that UKIP's job is almost certainly done, now.
The civil service's job is to provide options for ministers. They're used to planning for several scenarios. Cameron was convinced (and convinced the other EU nations) that Remain would win, so no need for any Leave preparation.
Hubris writ large.
Some Remain voters (and much of the EU) still think it was a temporary aberration and if they carry on the campaign, the "thickos" will come to their senses eventually.
Mr. Sandpit, it's perplexing how/why UKIP achieved so much success, seemed on the cusp of becoming more significant and yet is now tearing itself apart.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
UKIP achieved so much success that they became redundant.
Mr. Sandpit, it's perplexing how/why UKIP achieved so much success, seemed on the cusp of becoming more significant and yet is now tearing itself apart.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
UKIP achieved so much success that they became redundant.
It's very unusual for governments to put on support in by-elections, however good the polling is.
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
Sean, may I ask if you're still in the UKIP fold or are you looking for a new home in the Popular Front for the Liberation of Judea (Luton Branch) ?
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
So would Gove object if members of the public wrote all the newspaper columns? Perhaps we could allocate the job to non-experts (i.e. not a journalist or former Spad) via some kind of lottery system.
We'd get a diverse set of views and no need to pay some London dinner party type £100s a go.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
Tut! You know you need to put a trigger warning before mentioning the 1997 or 2001 elections!
So would Gove object if members of the public wrote all the newspaper columns? Perhaps we could allocate the job to non-experts (i.e. not a journalist or former Spad) via some kind of lottery system.
We'd get a diverse set of views and no need to pay some London dinner party type £100s a go.
Yes, it is ironic given he is an 'expert' politician. How'd that go during the leadership election?
Which is going to look just plain dumb when we trigger Article 50 and they are required to become the EU Rejoiner Party.
They might but I don't think that follows. It's very common - normal even - for opposition parties to oppose doing something until it's been done, but then not to support undoing it. This is even more true if it's not actually possible to go back to the status quo ante.
My bet - assuming we actually leave - is that the LibDem position on the EU will be similar to Labour's on the Euro - to join when the time is right. Which of course, not least because we won't be wanted, it won't be, for a long time.
That sounds plausible. I expect their main argument will be for an EEA-style arrangement, assuming that's not what the current government ends up doing.
An interesting upshot will be that they'll be able to make a manifesto on the basis of significantly faster growth and more tax revenue than the (future) status quo, so they'll be able to make more generous tax and spending promises than the other parties.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
I think the SW seats are safer than the likes of the SE and Gloucestershire type seats. SW London, Bath, Cheltenham, Oxford W, Lewes etc. That's where a resurgent LibDem party will target.
Experts on the economy understand how markets should work. But they're useless at prediction because markets don't always work that way. They deal in broad brush strokes. You need to factor in a load of unknown variables. It's not a science.
You could write a book about someone with the ability to predict markets using mass psychology. Oh, bugger, someone's already done that - Isaac Asimov with Hari Seldon in the Foundation series. And even he didn't predict a Trump effect.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
It's very unusual for governments to put on support in by-elections, however good the polling is.
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
The Conservative vote share is at the 1997/2001 core number. There was no shattering of that glass ceiling as there was at Newbury or Christchurch. The result is more like the South West Surrey by election in 1984 when the Alliance (as it then was) simply couldn't break down the core Conservative vote in that seat at that time.
The more I look at Witney, the more it looks like a typical 80s by election in a solid Conservative seat.
Morning all , pretty happy with my forecast , turnout spot on , Con and LD shares within 1% , Labour under estimated , minor parties slightly over estimated .
Yes, anyone would think that you followed elections closely.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
You need to go and have a lie down for about a week possibly a fortnight
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences. No one will even remember Farage or UKIP by the next election.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
There have been various people talking about a formal Lab/LD/Green understanding, but I'm not sure that the LD and Lab leadership aren't now too far apart. i think you're right that a de facto voting bloc is possible, though.
I don't think Labour did try very hard in this election - unusually, I didn't get a single appeal to go and help. Most of the effort went into preventing any embarrassing slippage to the various nationalist characters in Batley & Spen (where they all lost their deposits).
Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
I have to say the Labour result is odd, given how terrible Corbyn is.
There was no chance of Corbyn running the country as a result of last night's by-elections.
A general election campaign should focus the minds somewhat on the range of possible outcomes.
In Darlington, in 1983 - fairly safe Labour at the time - Labour won the by-election shortly before losing the seat at the general - an example of that very phenomenon.
It's very unusual for governments to put on support in by-elections, however good the polling is.
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
The Conservative vote share is at the 1997/2001 core number. There was no shattering of that glass ceiling as there was at Newbury or Christchurch. The result is more like the South West Surrey by election in 1984 when the Alliance (as it then was) simply couldn't break down the core Conservative vote in that seat at that time.
The more I look at Witney, the more it looks like a typical 80s by election in a solid Conservative seat.
This political era has more than a whiff of the early 80s. Worse music. Division, but no Joy.
I note that the ECB are talking about ramping up QE again, methinks they don't like weak Sterling very much.
It's a race to the bottom...
"the European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of the monetary union has warned.
One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency."
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences. No one will even remember Farage or UKIP by the next election.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
There have been various people talking about a formal Lab/LD/Green understanding, but I'm not sure that the LD and Lab leadership aren't now too far apart. i think you're right that a de facto voting bloc is possible, though.
Won't work. Smells like the sort of thing you do when you know you can't win. The electorate will see through it and punish it.
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences. No one will even remember Farage or UKIP by the next election.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
There have been various people talking about a formal Lab/LD/Green understanding, but I'm not sure that the LD and Lab leadership aren't now too far apart. i think you're right that a de facto voting bloc is possible, though.
I don't think Labour did try very hard in this election - unusually, I didn't get a single appeal to go and help. Most of the effort went into preventing any embarrassing slippage to the various nationalist characters in Batley & Spen (where they all lost their deposits).
What's Corbyn's view of electoral reform? Surely any Lab/LD/Green understanding can only work if there is agreement on this.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
I think the SW seats are safer than the likes of the SE and Gloucestershire type seats. SW London, Bath, Cheltenham, Oxford W, Lewes etc. That's where a resurgent LibDem party will target.
One of the things that stood out in the Lib Dem wipeout in the South West was that the Lib Dem share of the vote collapsed, but the Tory share of the vote didn't go up that much as the Lib Dem collapse, which means if the Lib Dems get the right message they could win back enough support they could win back those seats.
I note that the ECB are talking about ramping up QE again, methinks they don't like weak Sterling very much.
It's a race to the bottom...
"the European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of the monetary union has warned.
One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency."
AEP has been predicting doom for the EMU for a few years. I've yet to see any change in the political will to keep the plates spinning. Economically the EMU should have been dissolved in 2010 and all 17 members should have returned to their own currencies overnight, but that would have been a huge humiliation for Barrosso and other EU officials. It would also have spelled the end of the EU integration project and the EU would then forever be a loose grouping of nations who wish to trade with each other and use their collective bargaining power on the world stage. That is an EU we would likely have voted to remain in.
The next 2 parliamentary by elections will probably be Liverpool Walton and Leigh when their MPS win the Merseyside and Greater Manchester Mayoral contests next May .
The next 2 parliamentary by elections will probably be Liverpool Walton and Leigh when their MPS win the Merseyside and Greater Manchester Mayoral contests next May .
Rotheram got 81% a the last election in Liverpool Walton
With the invective in the POTUS race at historically unseen levels and Trump's concession debacle reverberating, it's worthy to pause to look at the gracious note left by Goerge Bush on the desk of the Oval Office the morning of Bill Clinton's inauguration :
The next 2 parliamentary by elections will probably be Liverpool Walton and Leigh when their MPS win the Merseyside and Greater Manchester Mayoral contests next May .
Rotheram got 81% a the last election in Liverpool Walton
One of the funniest comments at Matthew Parker Street on GE2015 night was when the Liverpool Walton* result came in, someone shouted
GE - Tory/UKIP = 54.1% across the country on that move.
I also suspect that the Tories will be much improved in Scotland on last May. It's become very clear that they are the unionist opposition to the nationalists and the vote dynamic up there would be a particular blend of EU v UK v SIndy judging by Sturgeon's rhetoric.
Dream On, not another Tory surge please , my sides are splitting
The next 2 parliamentary by elections will probably be Liverpool Walton and Leigh when their MPS win the Merseyside and Greater Manchester Mayoral contests next May .
Rotheram got 81% a the last election in Liverpool Walton
One of the funniest comments at Matthew Parker Street on GE2015 night was when the Liverpool Walton* result came in, someone shouted
Mr. Sandpit, although I'm going to keep an eye on the PS4 Pro and how VR develops, I'm really unlikely to get either. Just don't have the cash/money, and I dislike the idea of encouraging this mid-generation improvement bullshit.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
It's very unusual for governments to put on support in by-elections, however good the polling is.
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
Except that positioning the entire Tory vote as pro-Brexit is premature, whilst the full range of views is being played out within government and within the party. There will be plenty of people like my mother in Witney - solid Home Counties Tories who voted remain and are worrying, a bit, about the future, but not so concerned as to vote LibDem or Labour as a protest, even in a by-election.
If Brexit goes unexpectedly well, everybody (except the LibDems) will claim to have been pro-Brexit, one way or another, and the Tories in particular will be one big happy family. If it goes very badly, UKIP will disappear and the Tories will be the only party unable to escape the stain of Brexit.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
I think the SW seats are safer than the likes of the SE and Gloucestershire type seats. SW London, Bath, Cheltenham, Oxford W, Lewes etc. That's where a resurgent LibDem party will target.
2018 and London locals will be fascinating. Large parts are pro-Remain, Labour voters will have increasingly forgotten the coalition, and there's Heathrow expansion in the South West. I would expect the LibDems to make gains in Richmond, Kingston, Merton and Sutton. Twickenham, even with the local Conservative having first term incumbency, I think will be a LibDem gain. They might pick up one more.
I would be less optimistic about the LibDems prospects in the South West, outside a (very) few seats. Next year's local elections in Cornwall and Devon will indicate whether they have any hope of picking up seats down there, but I suspect they will struggle, and maybe even go backwards, in 2020.
South East England outside London will be interesting. I would forecast a LibDem gain in Cambridge, largely because I think the Labour Party will be comfortably sub 30% and the LibDems will be on 10-14%. That's comfortably a five point swing in the Lab-LibDem gap, but only results in a single gain. Oxford West (or whatever the new seat is called) is also a possible.
I don't see a resurgence in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Lewes, Bath, etc. I think there may be some narrowed majorities, and some increased council presence, but I think they will likely all stay Conservative in 2020.
In Scotland, the boundary reviews look to be *extremely* favourable for the LibDems (almost suspiciously so). They can reasonably expect to pick up both the Western Edinburgh seat and the Fife one.
So where does that leave them? Scotland 3 Wales 1 SW London 2-3 University Seats 1-2 Cumbria 1
9-10 + maybe they hold onto the successor seats in Southport, Sheffield, and Leeds.
The next 2 parliamentary by elections will probably be Liverpool Walton and Leigh when their MPS win the Merseyside and Greater Manchester Mayoral contests next May .
Hopefully a bookie will go 1-20 Labour or some such there.
Of the two latest national opinion polls, both have Trump in the lead. Okay, they are both tracking polls but there's a golden rule on here about not cherry picking the polls we wish to see. Trump leads by 3% and 1% respectively:
What we can state is that there is some serious value to be had on Trump.
If anyone is tempted to bet on Trump based on this post I strongly advise that they do little research into American polling companies first - if you still want to bet on an outcome that only Rasmussen & LA Times predict then good luck to you.
With the invective in the POTUS race at historically unseen levels and Trump's concession debacle reverberating, it's worthy to pause to look at the gracious note left by Goerge Bush on the desk of the Oval Office the morning of Bill Clinton's inauguration :
Mr. Sandpit, although I'm going to keep an eye on the PS4 Pro and how VR develops, I'm really unlikely to get either. Just don't have the cash/money, and I dislike the idea of encouraging this mid-generation improvement bullshit.
It has probably been said down stream but despite an absolutely massive effort and swamping Witney itself in the last week, LD's only knocked 2% out of the Labour vote. Even allowing for a strong local candidate that is disappointing and (cough) I did flag it up in the piece for PB a week or so ago.
Left wing voters have still not forgiven LD's for the Coalition I suspect. There were tweets from locals saying that the LD's are a centre right party and not an alternative to Labour
The irony is that on a policy by policy basis there was nowt but a gnat's testicle between the two candidates
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
I think the SW seats are safer than the likes of the SE and Gloucestershire type seats. SW London, Bath, Cheltenham, Oxford W, Lewes etc. That's where a resurgent LibDem party will target.
2018 and London locals will be fascinating. Large parts are pro-Remain, Labour voters will have increasingly forgotten the coalition, and there's Heathrow expansion in the South West. I would expect the LibDems to make gains in Richmond, Kingston, Merton and Sutton. Twickenham, even with the local Conservative having first term incumbency, I think will be a LibDem gain. They might pick up one more.
I would be less optimistic about the LibDems prospects in the South West, outside a (very) few seats. Next year's local elections in Cornwall and Devon will indicate whether they have any hope of picking up seats down there, but I suspect they will struggle, and maybe even go backwards, in 2020.
South East England outside London will be interesting. I would forecast a LibDem gain in Cambridge, largely because I think the Labour Party will be comfortably sub 30% and the LibDems will be on 10-14%. That's comfortably a five point swing in the Lab-LibDem gap, but only results in a single gain. Oxford West (or whatever the new seat is called) is also a possible.
I don't see a resurgence in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Lewes, Bath, etc. I think there may be some narrowed majorities, and some increased council presence, but I think they will likely all stay Conservative in 2020.
In Scotland, the boundary reviews look to be *extremely* favourable for the LibDems (almost suspiciously so). They can reasonably expect to pick up both the Western Edinburgh seat and the Fife one.
So where does that leave them? Scotland 3 Wales 1 SW London 2-3 University Seats 1-2 Cumbria 1
9-10 + maybe they hold onto the successor seats in Southport, Sheffield, and Leeds.
I hold by my forecast of 10-14 seats in 2020.
It would be difficult for the LibDems to improve on their councillors in my neighbouring constituency of Eastleigh where they have 37 to the Tories 6, but I guess it's possible.
Mr. 1000, I do think the tech is impressive and has a future, but I'm not sure the current crop of games are that ambitious.
Incidentally, do you happen to have Rise of the Tomb Raider? I'll be writing a review at some point, and if you have thoughts on its VR mode that'd be of interest.
It's very unusual for governments to put on support in by-elections, however good the polling is.
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
The Conservative vote share is at the 1997/2001 core number. There was no shattering of that glass ceiling as there was at Newbury or Christchurch. The result is more like the South West Surrey by election in 1984 when the Alliance (as it then was) simply couldn't break down the core Conservative vote in that seat at that time.
The more I look at Witney, the more it looks like a typical 80s by election in a solid Conservative seat.
If Cameron got 45% when he first won the seat then presumably that is the benchmark and 45% is what the Tory candidate polled
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
I think the SW seats are safer than the likes of the SE and Gloucestershire type seats. SW London, Bath, Cheltenham, Oxford W, Lewes etc. That's where a resurgent LibDem party will target.
2018 and London locals will be fascinating. Large parts are pro-Remain, Labour voters will have increasingly forgotten the coalition, and there's Heathrow expansion in the South West. I would expect the LibDems to make gains in Richmond, Kingston, Merton and Sutton. Twickenham, even with the local Conservative having first term incumbency, I think will be a LibDem gain. They might pick up one more.
I would be less optimistic about the LibDems prospects in the South West, outside a (very) few seats. Next year's local elections in Cornwall and Devon will indicate whether they have any hope of picking up seats down there, but I suspect they will struggle, and maybe even go backwards, in 2020.
South East England outside London will be interesting. I would forecast a LibDem gain in Cambridge, largely because I think the Labour Party will be comfortably sub 30% and the LibDems will be on 10-14%. That's comfortably a five point swing in the Lab-LibDem gap, but only results in a single gain. Oxford West (or whatever the new seat is called) is also a possible.
I don't see a resurgence in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Lewes, Bath, etc. I think there may be some narrowed majorities, and some increased council presence, but I think they will likely all stay Conservative in 2020.
In Scotland, the boundary reviews look to be *extremely* favourable for the LibDems (almost suspiciously so). They can reasonably expect to pick up both the Western Edinburgh seat and the Fife one.
So where does that leave them? Scotland 3 Wales 1 SW London 2-3 University Seats 1-2 Cumbria 1
9-10 + maybe they hold onto the successor seats in Southport, Sheffield, and Leeds.
I hold by my forecast of 10-14 seats in 2020.
It would be difficult for the LibDems to improve on their councillors in my neighbouring constituency of Eastleigh where they have 37 to the Tories 6, but I guess it's possible.
LOL - fair point (And the same is true of Eastbourne I think)
Mr. 1000, I do think the tech is impressive and has a future, but I'm not sure the current crop of games are that ambitious.
Incidentally, do you happen to have Rise of the Tomb Raider? I'll be writing a review at some point, and if you have thoughts on its VR mode that'd be of interest.
Despite knowing the old Eidos/Core Design people very well (I was at the Tomb Raider movie premiers!), I've never particularly enjoyed the games.
With the invective in the POTUS race at historically unseen levels and Trump's concession debacle reverberating, it's worthy to pause to look at the gracious note left by Goerge Bush on the desk of the Oval Office the morning of Bill Clinton's inauguration :
That's a very kind letter, and serves as a great example of how politics in the intervening period has gone very much downhill in terms of the civility of all those involved. Whether it's all the PAC money spent on increasingly negative advertising, to the terrible conduct of both campaigns we have seen this time around, 2016 has seen a new low in US political life - with no sign of it getting any better after the vote on November 8th.
Of course, in the UK the last political letter we remember was that signed by Liam Byrne. Whoops.
Mr. 1000, heard much praise for Hitman though I dislike it's weird approach to releasing stuff. I think that also harmed the marketing.
You may want to give Rise of the Tomb Raider a look. I've played maybe one in three games across the whole franchise, and the most recent is the best by a distance. I'll wait until I've tried all the modes, but I'll likely give it a 9/10.
Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
I have to say the Labour result is odd, given how terrible Corbyn is.
Is the Labour result such a surprise? 15% is pretty low for the main opposition party. Corbyn is popular with many of the party members who will have wanted to get out and support their man and there are also Labour voters who though well aware of all his faults would have supported the Labour candidate in the privacy of the polling booth - it's a vote for the party not the leader after all.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
£350m a week for the NHS was mentioned numerous times by both sides.
The reality is that nothing anybody may or may not have said during the campaign is binding on what sort of deal we come up with or alters the fact that we have voted to leave the EU and any deal that fulfils that criteria legitimately fills the mandate given on June 23rd.
There will be political ramifications of course but that is a separate issue. May has decided to appease (for the time being) those voters who prioritise FOM over SM. She could just as easily have done the reverse. Either fulfils the mandate given on June 23rd
Mr. 1000, heard much praise for Hitman though I dislike it's weird approach to releasing stuff. I think that also harmed the marketing.
You may want to give Rise of the Tomb Raider a look. I've played maybe one in three games across the whole franchise, and the most recent is the best by a distance. I'll wait until I've tried all the modes, but I'll likely give it a 9/10.
One hopes you got to meet Angelina Jolie.
I took flying lessons with Angelina. (True story.)
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
£350m a week for the NHS was mentioned numerous times by both sides.
The reality is that nothing anybody may or may not have said during the campaign is binding on what sort of deal we come up with or alters the fact that we have voted to leave the EU and any deal that fulfils that criteria legitimately fills the mandate given on June 23rd.
There will be political ramifications of course but that is a separate issue. May has decided to appease (for the time being) those voters who prioritise FOM over SM. She could just as easily have done the reverse. Either fulfils the mandate given on June 23rd
I don't think the Remain side were saying that £350m per week would happen if we left.
Two days ago - this source was almost right "up to 30%".
Harry Cole Verified account @MrHarryCole Tory source concerned the LibDems could take up to 30 per cent of the vote in Witney tomorrow. 10:34 am - 19 Oct 2016
It has probably been said down stream but despite an absolutely massive effort and swamping Witney itself in the last week, LD's only knocked 2% out of the Labour vote. Even allowing for a strong local candidate that is disappointing and (cough) I did flag it up in the piece for PB a week or so ago.
Left wing voters have still not forgiven LD's for the Coalition I suspect. There were tweets from locals saying that the LD's are a centre right party and not an alternative to Labour
The irony is that on a policy by policy basis there was nowt but a gnat's testicle between the two candidates
As a LD, I am reasonably heartened at the Lab vote holding up.
Over recent decades the electoral fortunes have been linked. When the LDs poll well so does Labour, when Labour gain seats so do the LDs.
Both turning their fire on the Tories and fellow travellers in UKIP is the way forward.
Personal Spin - Disappointing night for Theresa May, the Tory share of the vote is back to the 1997/2001 general election levels, when the Tories got massacred and had around 165 MPs.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
I think the SW seats are safer than the likes of the SE and Gloucestershire type seats. SW London, Bath, Cheltenham, Oxford W, Lewes etc. That's where a resurgent LibDem party will target.
2018 and London locals will be fascinating. Large parts are pro-Remain, Labour voters will have increasingly forgotten the coalition, and there's Heathrow expansion in the South West. I would expect the LibDems to make gains in Richmond, Kingston, Merton and Sutton. Twickenham, even with the local Conservative having first term incumbency, I think will be a LibDem gain. They might pick up one more.
I would be less optimistic about the LibDems prospects in the South West, ........
South East England outside London will be interesting. I would forecast a LibDem gain in Cambridge, largely because I think the Labour Party will be comfortably sub 30% and the LibDems will be on 10-14%. That's comfortably a five point swing in the Lab-LibDem gap, but only results in a single gain. Oxford West (or whatever the new seat is called) is also a possible.
I don't see a resurgence in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Lewes, Bath, etc. I think there may be some narrowed majorities, and some increased council presence, but I think they will likely all stay Conservative in 2020.
In Scotland, the boundary reviews look to be *extremely* favourable for the LibDems (almost suspiciously so). They can reasonably expect to pick up both the Western Edinburgh seat and the Fife one.
So where does that leave them? Scotland 3 Wales 1 SW London 2-3 University Seats 1-2 Cumbria 1
9-10 + maybe they hold onto the successor seats in Southport, Sheffield, and Leeds.
I hold by my forecast of 10-14 seats in 2020.
It would be difficult for the LibDems to improve on their councillors in my neighbouring constituency of Eastleigh where they have 37 to the Tories 6, but I guess it's possible.
In Eastleigh the demise of UKIP could open up a few gains for the Conservatives.
Morning all Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
I have to say the Labour result is odd, given how terrible Corbyn is.
Is the Labour result such a surprise? 15% is pretty low for the main opposition party. Corbyn is popular with many of the party members who will have wanted to get out and support their man and there are also Labour voters who though well aware of all his faults would have supported the Labour candidate in the privacy of the polling booth - it's a vote for the party not the leader after all.
Possibly not even that, Mr Langley. The Labour candidate was, I understand, an effective local councillor, who (before the election) was highly critical of Mr Corbyn and all his works. It is hard to disentangle the relative importance of the candidate, the party image, the party machine and motivation of of members. At the end of the day, the Labour vote fell back.
It has probably been said down stream but despite an absolutely massive effort and swamping Witney itself in the last week, LD's only knocked 2% out of the Labour vote. Even allowing for a strong local candidate that is disappointing and (cough) I did flag it up in the piece for PB a week or so ago.
Left wing voters have still not forgiven LD's for the Coalition I suspect. There were tweets from locals saying that the LD's are a centre right party and not an alternative to Labour
The irony is that on a policy by policy basis there was nowt but a gnat's testicle between the two candidates
With the slump in turnout at Witney what we do not know is where the LDs gained 23%? Did they just do a better GOTV and get a higher turnout from existing LD voters and some gains from Cons, Greens and Lab? The LDs certainly poured more resources in than the other parties.
Which is going to look just plain dumb when we trigger Article 50 and they are required to become the EU Rejoiner Party.
They might but I don't think that follows. It's very common - normal even - for opposition parties to oppose doing something until it's been done, but then not to support undoing it. This is even more true if it's not actually possible to go back to the status quo ante.
My bet - assuming we actually leave - is that the LibDem position on the EU will be similar to Labour's on the Euro - to join when the time is right. Which of course, not least because we won't be wanted, it won't be, for a long time.
That sounds plausible. I expect their main argument will be for an EEA-style arrangement, assuming that's not what the current government ends up doing.
An interesting upshot will be that they'll be able to make a manifesto on the basis of significantly faster growth and more tax revenue than the (future) status quo, so they'll be able to make more generous tax and spending promises than the other parties.
Yup. Future battle lines will be more co-operation/integration versus less co-operation/integration, rather than full membership of the EU versus out. The Brexit vote hasn't resolved anything.
Of the two latest national opinion polls, both have Trump in the lead. Okay, they are both tracking polls but there's a golden rule on here about not cherry picking the polls we wish to see. Trump leads by 3% and 1% respectively:
What we can state is that there is some serious value to be had on Trump.
If anyone is tempted to bet on Trump based on this post I strongly advise that they do little research into American polling companies first - if you still want to bet on an outcome that only Rasmussen & LA Times predict then good luck to you.
Serious value? I imagine that 5.8 might be close to the actual probability; i.e., the bookies win.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
£350m a week for the NHS was mentioned numerous times by both sides.
The reality is that nothing anybody may or may not have said during the campaign is binding on what sort of deal we come up with or alters the fact that we have voted to leave the EU and any deal that fulfils that criteria legitimately fills the mandate given on June 23rd.
There will be political ramifications of course but that is a separate issue. May has decided to appease (for the time being) those voters who prioritise FOM over SM. She could just as easily have done the reverse. Either fulfils the mandate given on June 23rd
I don't think the Remain side were saying that £350m per week would happen if we left.
I think Remain were saying there would be LESS money for the NHS after Brexit.
Exciting (well, for nerds) news from NI. Colum Eastwood is going to address the UUP Conference this weekend. A sign of Opposition getting its act together? We'd hope so. Would there be interest in an article about the UUP Conference next week? Not sure when I'll get time to pen it but maybe Mon?
Comments
Guess the Remonaers will need something else to put a stop to Brexit... Next!
I think the anti-Brexit stance of the Lib Dems did help them build support, although as others have pointed out, the vote for pro-Brexit parties was slightly up on the referendum.
Hubris writ large.
Some Remain voters (and much of the EU) still think it was a temporary aberration and if they carry on the campaign, the "thickos" will come to their senses eventually.
Are Dave's Blue Liberals going back to the Yellow Peril? Alarming, all those seats in the South West now at risk.
Pro Tory spin - Second by election victory in 27 years for the Tory, Dave's personal vote unwinding.
Perhaps Corbyn won't lead Labour to the mother of all shellackings in 2020.
All of this makes an early election unlikely, even before we consider the awkwardness of the FTPA.
We'd get a diverse set of views and no need to pay some London dinner party type £100s a go.
An interesting upshot will be that they'll be able to make a manifesto on the basis of significantly faster growth and more tax revenue than the (future) status quo, so they'll be able to make more generous tax and spending promises than the other parties.
You could write a book about someone with the ability to predict markets using mass psychology. Oh, bugger, someone's already done that - Isaac Asimov with Hari Seldon in the Foundation series. And even he didn't predict a Trump effect.
The more I look at Witney, the more it looks like a typical 80s by election in a solid Conservative seat.
I don't think Labour did try very hard in this election - unusually, I didn't get a single appeal to go and help. Most of the effort went into preventing any embarrassing slippage to the various nationalist characters in Batley & Spen (where they all lost their deposits).
One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/
http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/20/13350476/sony-ps4-pro-mark-cerny-4k-games-psvr-graphics
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/read-this-letter-george-h-w-bush-sent-to-bill-clinton-after-losing-1992-election/
'It's not over yet'
*Might have been the Liverpool West Derby result.
If Brexit goes unexpectedly well, everybody (except the LibDems) will claim to have been pro-Brexit, one way or another, and the Tories in particular will be one big happy family. If it goes very badly, UKIP will disappear and the Tories will be the only party unable to escape the stain of Brexit.
I would be less optimistic about the LibDems prospects in the South West, outside a (very) few seats. Next year's local elections in Cornwall and Devon will indicate whether they have any hope of picking up seats down there, but I suspect they will struggle, and maybe even go backwards, in 2020.
South East England outside London will be interesting. I would forecast a LibDem gain in Cambridge, largely because I think the Labour Party will be comfortably sub 30% and the LibDems will be on 10-14%. That's comfortably a five point swing in the Lab-LibDem gap, but only results in a single gain. Oxford West (or whatever the new seat is called) is also a possible.
I don't see a resurgence in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Lewes, Bath, etc. I think there may be some narrowed majorities, and some increased council presence, but I think they will likely all stay Conservative in 2020.
In Scotland, the boundary reviews look to be *extremely* favourable for the LibDems (almost suspiciously so). They can reasonably expect to pick up both the Western Edinburgh seat and the Fife one.
So where does that leave them?
Scotland 3
Wales 1
SW London 2-3
University Seats 1-2
Cumbria 1
9-10 + maybe they hold onto the successor seats in Southport, Sheffield, and Leeds.
I hold by my forecast of 10-14 seats in 2020.
The nasty Clinton "machine" ate him up and spat him out. I imagine he was pleased to be out of it by the end of the election.
Corbyn may be less than fulsome in his support but Labour are most definitely still a pro-EU party.
I reckon they will increase their number by at least 100%.
Rez was incredible.
Left wing voters have still not forgiven LD's for the Coalition I suspect. There were tweets from locals saying that the LD's are a centre right party and not an alternative to Labour
The irony is that on a policy by policy basis there was nowt but a gnat's testicle between the two candidates
Incidentally, do you happen to have Rise of the Tomb Raider? I'll be writing a review at some point, and if you have thoughts on its VR mode that'd be of interest.
Hitman has been my game of 2016.
Of course, in the UK the last political letter we remember was that signed by Liam Byrne. Whoops.
What have #BBC and #Trump got in common?
Both refuse to accept result of election/referendum
You may want to give Rise of the Tomb Raider a look. I've played maybe one in three games across the whole franchise, and the most recent is the best by a distance. I'll wait until I've tried all the modes, but I'll likely give it a 9/10.
One hopes you got to meet Angelina Jolie.
FL 68.8 .. OH 56.6 .. PA 87.2
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
The reality is that nothing anybody may or may not have said during the campaign is binding on what sort of deal we come up with or alters the fact that we have voted to leave the EU and any deal that fulfils that criteria legitimately fills the mandate given on June 23rd.
There will be political ramifications of course but that is a separate issue. May has decided to appease (for the time being) those voters who prioritise FOM over SM. She could just as easily have done the reverse. Either fulfils the mandate given on June 23rd
Anyone else watching?
Harry Cole Verified account @MrHarryCole
Tory source concerned the LibDems could take up to 30 per cent of the vote in Witney tomorrow. 10:34 am - 19 Oct 2016
Over recent decades the electoral fortunes have been linked. When the LDs poll well so does Labour, when Labour gain seats so do the LDs.
Both turning their fire on the Tories and fellow travellers in UKIP is the way forward.
A truly terrible event.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trumps-incredible-shrinking-map-230135
urgh.
No.
A cyclopian British aristocrat is more than a match for some French seamen.