King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Staying well away from ECV spreads personally. There's a tipping point where a couple of percent in vote share runs half a dozen states one way or the other very quickly.
Indeed, you have to be well aware of the risks.
However, in this case the risk looks asymmetric to me at SPIN's Buy price of 329. If (as seems likely) Clinton wins FL NV NC and NE2, she's up to 323. If that's as far as she gets, you've lost 6 points. On the other hand, if things go a bit better for her, then next on her list is OH which takes you up to 341 straight away, and therefore a 12-point profit, with ME2 (1) IA (6) and AZ (11) all potentially within reach.
In other words, I think the most likely final values are 323, 341, 347, and 358 (plus or minus one or two for NE2 and ME2 where the polling information is scant).
As always, DYOR, you can lose your shirt on the spreads, etc etc.
Isn't it better to sell Donald Trump than buy Hillary Clinton, given the distinct possibility that Utah might go to the outsider?
Anyway, I'm happy enough selling Donald Trump right now.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Somewhere in Warwickshire is a road sign that says Shrewley and Mouse End, which I always liked. Near where I lived in Berkshire is Scratchface Lane, Tutts Clump.
Isn't it better to sell Donald Trump than buy Hillary Clinton, given the distinct possibility that Utah might go to the outsider?
Anyway, I'm happy enough selling Donald Trump right now.
Yes, you are right, although that means you wouldn't profit if Clinton comes through the middle in Utah.
I think Trump is the one who comes through the middle now if any middle coming is going to happen (I.e. I've backed Hilary and McMullin so Trump is the one who fucks me up)
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
An alternative low-risk strategy on the spreads is to Buy Clinton at 329 with SPIN and sell the Clinton 250- Ups with Spreadex at 91. That locks in a fixed 12-point profit provided Clinton gets anything from 250 upwards (which is very likely indeed), and doesn't hit a loss until she's as low as 238. That corresponds to her losing all of NC NV FL CO NH and PA.
Staying well away from ECV spreads personally. There's a tipping point where a couple of percent in vote share runs half a dozen states one way or the other very quickly.
Indeed, you have to be well aware of the risks.
However, in this case the risk looks asymmetric to me at SPIN's Buy price of 329. If (as seems likely) Clinton wins FL NV NC and NE2, she's up to 323. If that's as far as she gets, you've lost 6 points. On the other hand, if things go a bit better for her, then next on her list is OH which takes you up to 341 straight away, and therefore a 12-point profit, with ME2 (1) IA (6) and AZ (11) all potentially within reach.
In other words, I think the most likely final values are 323, 341, 347, and 358 (plus or minus one or two for NE2 and ME2 where the polling information is scant).
As always, DYOR, you can lose your shirt on the spreads, etc etc.
Isn't it better to sell Donald Trump than buy Hillary Clinton, given the distinct possibility that Utah might go to the outsider?
Anyway, I'm happy enough selling Donald Trump right now.
I've sold Trump @ 209 and Clinton 250 ups @ 91 for the same stake.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Somewhere in Warwickshire is a road sign that says Shrewley and Mouse End, which I always liked. Near where I lived in Berkshire is Scratchface Lane, Tutts Clump.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment. Inflation well below target.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment. Inflation well below target.
With a record like that, triggering Article 50 looks like a needless gamble wouldn't you say?
Mr. Glenn, judging something long-term a failure three months after the decision and perhaps three months before negotiation starts is a bit like judging your newborn a failure after it vomits on the carpet.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment. Inflation well below target.
I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
The UK's key economic problems are low productivity, huge balance of trade deficit and huge government budget deficit.
Brexit should help reduce the balance of trade deficit with the lower pound and restrictions on the number of immigrant workers should improve productivity as measured by GDP per head.
Mr. Glenn, judging something long-term a failure three months after the decision and perhaps three months before negotiation starts is a bit like judging your newborn a failure after it vomits on the carpet.
On the contrary, I was judging our EU membership a long-term success on the basis of a 40 year record. Brexit hasn't begun to happen yet.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
If we're allowed to go European does anywhere beat the small Austrian town of F***ing? They had a big problem a few years back with British tourists stealing all their f***ing road signs. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/08/15/austrian_signs/
I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment. Inflation well below target.
With a record like that, triggering Article 50 looks like a needless gamble wouldn't you say?
Inflation is only closer to target and the balance of payments has a real chance of improvement because not in spite of the imminent invocation of A50.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Joke: Urban schoolchild goes on outing to see a farm. Gets home and his dad says "What did you see?" Schoolkid: "I saw some sheep, I saw some pigs, I saw some fuckers". "Fuckers, boy?" Yes dad, farmer called them 'eifers but I knew what he meant".
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
Joke: Urban schoolchild goes on outing to see a farm. Gets home and his dad says "What did you see?" Schoolkid: "I saw some sheep, I saw some pigs, I saw some fuckers". "Fuckers, boy?" Yes dad, farmer called them 'eifers but I knew what he meant".
That's like Douglas Bader giving a speech at a girls' school about his wartime air battles, and telling the girls that "there were fuckers to the right and left of me." The red-faced teacher explained to the girls that a Fokker was a German aircraft, when Bader replied "I don't know about that, but these fuckers were Messerschmitts."
King of Langley, zero chance she'd go for it voluntarily, but there is a chance the Lords, courts, and Cleggian Brusselophiles might lead to us not leaving.
Mr. Glenn, Tor Yscum is a wonderful Welsh hill fort.
My friend's parents lived in a lovely place called Gay's Lees. It was universally known as Gay Sleaze.....
A village nr me is called Blackboys. Another is Dicker. And Nomansland. And Worlds End.
County Durham has a village called Pity Me, and Essex has Ugley.
I believe there are streets in England named after one of Donald Trump's pastimes that could compete.
Many of the more descriptive Medieval street names were cleaned up in the Victorian era. There was once a famous Alley in the City called Grope Cxxt Alley. Many side streets with grope in the title became Grape Streets. The good old Angle Saxons liked to let you know what trade existed in each street.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment. Inflation well below target.
I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
I'm sure one of our Stats geeks can point out the frequent times we've enjoyed such a Goldilocks combination.....
Meanwhile surely Brexit's lead locale should be 'Wideopen'? A small village north of Newcastle, on the Great North Road - pronounced as you might expect - tho one Southern posho who moved there thinking it was 'North Gosforth' insisted it was pronounced 'widdy-o-pen'.....
So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).
The party stands for:
Free speech Free trade Free market
In order of importance.
In practice that means:
1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.
2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.
3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.
4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.
So I've been thinking about it for a while, I think it is time to form a new political party. I'm going to call it the Free Liberal Party (FLP).
The party stands for:
Free speech Free trade Free market
In order of importance.
In practice that means:
1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.
2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.
3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.
4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment.or a Inflation well below target.
I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
Will people like you please make up your minds whether this is a period of uncommon prosperity for the country or a stagnant dystopia where ordinary people are engaged in a Sisyphean struggle to keep their heads above water while being pushed down by an unaccountable elite bureaucracy?
It has probably been said down stream but despite an absolutely massive effort and swamping Witney itself in the last week, LD's only knocked 2% out of the Labour vote. Even allowing for a strong local candidate that is disappointing and (cough) I did flag it up in the piece for PB a week or so ago.
Left wing voters have still not forgiven LD's for the Coalition I suspect. There were tweets from locals saying that the LD's are a centre right party and not an alternative to Labour
The irony is that on a policy by policy basis there was nowt but a gnat's testicle between the two candidates
With the slump in turnout at Witney what we do not know is where the LDs gained 23%? Did they just do a better GOTV and get a higher turnout from existing LD voters and some gains from Cons, Greens and Lab? The LDs certainly poured more resources in than the other parties.
About 10x the resources!
But you know what? In the previous by-elections, they couldn't get their activists engaged. This time they did. That's a meaningful difference.
Well, if they want to piss their scarce cash resources up a wall to no effect....
More like the LD election spending is the equivalent of p***ing into their own clothes and they got a brief warm feeling from it?
Given that there's been a membership surge following the General Election and the referendum, I don't think that the LD coffers are particularly bare at the moment. The big effort in Witney was driven by the fact that activists are really keen to get out and campaign against Brexit and May's rightwards shift.
My experience from canvassing in Witney was that when you encountered Labour voters in majority Tory voting streets they were more likely than not to switch across. However, there were solid clumps of Labour support where there had clearly been enough activity from the Labour Party to dissuade the residents from believing that the Lib Dems were the main challengers. With a longer campaign I think these pockets of resistance could probably have been broken down.
Opposing a hard Brexit is at least as effective a vote winning policy as opposing the Iraq war was in the noughties. It'll probably take a by election win before voters start to take notice and the national polls shift.
Greater borrowing. More unemployment. Weakened pound. Reduced investment. Rising prices.
Borrowing below what Labour bequeathed and will do still. Employment rate at a record high. Weakened pound. Increased investment. Inflation well below target.
I'm old enough to remember a time when governments would have been delighted by 2.5% growth, 1% inflation, and 5% unemployment. In fact, had you suggested to politicians that such an outcome was possible, they'd have laughed you to scorn.
When are you going to get 2.5% growth in the next few years ?
Comments
Anyway, I'm happy enough selling Donald Trump right now.
Con 24.2% minus 4.7%
Lab 28.4% minus 1.1%
LDem 18.6% plus 8.2%
UKIP 6.2% minus 3.7%
Green 4.8% minus 1.2%
Nats 7.1% plus 3.1%
Others 10.6% minus 0.7%
I think this combines both tips/suggestions...
Greater borrowing.
More unemployment.
Weakened pound.
Reduced investment.
Rising prices.
Also see Shitterton and Pratts Bottom at:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2188441/Shitterton-comes-list-Britains-worst-place-names-including-Pratts-Bottom-Crapstone-Slag-Lane--live-insist-lovely-place-live.html
Employment rate at a record high.
Weakened pound.
Increased investment.
Inflation well below target.
Was going to to up having done the sums but the Clinton Ups line has moved.
Should net me £180 anyway.
Brexit should help reduce the balance of trade deficit with the lower pound and restrictions on the number of immigrant workers should improve productivity as measured by GDP per head.
Brexit news: chocolate currency now stronger than the pound
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/10/19/brexit-news-chocolate-currency-now-stronger-pound/
Brexiteers truly are the Quisling fifth columnists in the United Kingdom
They had a big problem a few years back with British tourists stealing all their f***ing road signs.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/08/15/austrian_signs/
...................................
Thanks for you earlier reply.
Mr. Glenn, and yet there was no positive case whatsoever made for the EU during the referendum campaign.
When asked "What has the EU ever done for us?" the answer was "Er...".
Urban schoolchild goes on outing to see a farm. Gets home and his dad says "What did you see?" Schoolkid: "I saw some sheep, I saw some pigs, I saw some fuckers". "Fuckers, boy?" Yes dad, farmer called them 'eifers but I knew what he meant".
@DanielJHannan: Full WTO tariffs would cost British exporters £5.2 billion and EU exporters £12.9 billion. Which is why neither side will impose them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YO-Ocueehfc
And with that, I must be off.
The Cockwell Inn
Tillit
Herts
Meanwhile surely Brexit's lead locale should be 'Wideopen'? A small village north of Newcastle, on the Great North Road - pronounced as you might expect - tho one Southern posho who moved there thinking it was 'North Gosforth' insisted it was pronounced 'widdy-o-pen'.....
The party stands for:
Free speech
Free trade
Free market
In order of importance.
In practice that means:
1. No more hate speech laws, no more safe spaces. Open discussion of any idea, however distasteful they might be.
2. The nation will seek free trade with any party who is willing and generally have low import tariffs for nations who don't. The nation will also work within the WTO to eliminate NTBs on a sector by sector basis rather than seek an imposition of standards in the way that the US does.
3. The nation will seek a free market solution to commerce and labour with a base income of £12.50/h. With that we will eliminate payroll taxes and lower corporation tax to 12.5% for small and medium business and 15% for big business. We will also eliminate all in working benefits and tax credits and out of work benefits will be made on a contributory basis with a minimum 12 months of work in the last 24 months required to qualify. Unemployment benefits will be paid for up to 12 months at a rate of 60% of previous gross income.
4. We don't give a shit if you're gay, black, white or whatever. Everyone is welcome as long as they welcome everyone else.
Anyone who wants to join is welcome to do so.
My experience from canvassing in Witney was that when you encountered Labour voters in majority Tory voting streets they were more likely than not to switch across. However, there were solid clumps of Labour support where there had clearly been enough activity from the Labour Party to dissuade the residents from believing that the Lib Dems were the main challengers. With a longer campaign I think these pockets of resistance could probably have been broken down.
Opposing a hard Brexit is at least as effective a vote winning policy as opposing the Iraq war was in the noughties. It'll probably take a by election win before voters start to take notice and the national polls shift.