Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Yeah, this seems the most sensible interpretation.
I draw only three conclusions from this by-election:
1) The Lib Dems aren't completely dead yet. 2) Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is resilient at a low level. Compare and contrast the Labour result in Christchurch in 1993. 3) There's a gap in the market in the centre that the Lib Dems by themselves aren't filling adequately.
' The Ribble Valley by-election, in Lancashire, England, took place on 7 March 1991 following the elevation of United Kingdom MP David Waddington to the House of Lords. Michael Carr of the Liberal Democrats won election at his third attempt.
The seat, based largely on the market town of Clitheroe, had previously been safely Conservative but at the time the controversial Margaret Thatcher's "Poll Tax" policy was used by opposition parties against the Conservative candidate. The tax was abolished soon afterwards by Thatcher's successor John Major, who had succeeded Thatcher on her resignation in November 1990. '
New Conservative PM with high popularity, a LibDem party which is struggling, a campaign based upon a controversial policy in a seat where the Conoservatives had over 60% at the previous general election.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Yeah, this seems the most sensible interpretation.
Yes but the constituency has become much more Tory in the last 30 years.
I think the surprising result is how well the Labour vote held up.
Not as well as in Batley and Spen.
Against a bunch of nobodies, thanks to Cameron's pledge (followed by LD and UKIP) not to stand in the seat. I can understand his reasons at the time, but with hindsight a poor decision.
I don't think so. Putting up a candidate would have attracted a lot of criticism. It was a no-win really - and the result is irrelevant. The seat will be up for grabs again at the next GE.
Putting up a candidate in an election would have attracted criticism? What nonsense is this?
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice. .
Disagree, it was the right decision. Silencing MPs by murdering them cannot be rewarded eith political change.
Not a policy which was followed when MPs were murdered by the IRA who were seeking political change.
It is for the voters to decide whether there should be political change and there have been plenty of events on which the voters should have the right to express a view. This is about the rights of voters. Not the rights of parties to hold onto seats without challenge.
Democracy should not be suspended as a result of murder. This sets a very bad precedent - that a violent act can lead to the suspension of full multi party democracy.
Nothing undemocratic about this. Parties are always at liberty to stand or not. The voters seemed happy. No sign of protest at all. We have moved on.
I agree with Cyclefree. I wouldn't be happy if I were a voter in Batley.
You'd've been perfectly happy if there'd been no need for a by-election to begin with.
I draw only three conclusions from this by-election:
1) The Lib Dems aren't completely dead yet. 2) Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is resilient at a low level. Compare and contrast the Labour result in Christchurch in 1993. 3) There's a gap in the market in the centre that the Lib Dems by themselves aren't filling adequately.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
I think that is what I said. All new Tory candidates in that constituency (or its predecessors) in living memory got 45% of the vote give or take a couple of percent.
Apologies I misread, I think Cyclefree was spinning it as a warning.
It was an unnecessary Byelection caused by a party six years into government. In that context it's a very good result for the Conservatives. Governing parties frequently lose similar by elections and here they held on by 15%. I don't think these figures preclude or deter #Mayday in anyway. That said the Lib Dem performance is very noteworthy. We've seen the ability of them to do this in LA By-Elections with gathering speed. But parliamentary byelections are in much bigger areas requiring far more resources and are more strongly contested by others. It's the first evidence of any recovery in national elections. They went backwards in Wales and London this May. The relative failure to squeeze the Lab/Grn votes further suggests this is very much a work in progress but previously it was work that hadn't started.
As for Brexit the depressing reality of the Byelection is a Remain MP has been replaced by a Leave one. Local selectorates will do this in most Tory vacancies now. However the real politics of Brexit hasn't even started yet. For instance *if* the devaluation of the £ holds we'll have a 12 month period where average prices rise faster than average wages. The most recent predictions point to 0.8% to 1% GDP growth next year - which won't feel like growth. Who knows what will actually happen but the capacity for Brexit to be a loose but durable prism for domestic politics is certainly there.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Yeah, this seems the most sensible interpretation.
Yes but the constituency has become much more Tory in the last 30 years.
Take out the other parties not having a proper crack at it in 2010 and 2015 and you've still got 2005
Cameron 49.3 LD 23 Lab 22 also ran 5.7
which is not a million miles from what we got last night.
I think the surprising result is how well the Labour vote held up.
Not as well as in Batley and Spen.
Against a bunch of nobodies, thanks to Cameron's pledge (followed by LD and UKIP) not to stand in the seat. I can understand his reasons at the time, but with hindsight a poor decision.
I don't think so. Putting up a candidate would have attracted a lot of criticism. It was a no-win really - and the result is irrelevant. The seat will be up for grabs again at the next GE.
Putting up a candidate in an election would have attracted criticism? What nonsense is this?
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice. .
Disagree, it was the right decision. Silencing MPs by murdering them cannot be rewarded eith political change.
Not a policy which was followed when MPs were murdered by the IRA who were seeking political change.
It is for the voters to decide whether there should be political change and there have been plenty of events on which the voters should have the right to express a view. This is about the rights of voters. Not the rights of parties to hold onto seats without challenge.
Democracy should not be suspended as a result of murder. This sets a very bad precedent - that a violent act can lead to the suspension of full multi party democracy.
Nothing undemocratic about this. Parties are always at liberty to stand or not. The voters seemed happy. No sign of protest at all. We have moved on.
I agree with Cyclefree. I wouldn't be happy if I were a voter in Batley.
You'd've been perfectly happy if there'd been no need for a by-election to begin with.
I think every one of us posting here wishes there was no need by the Batley and Spen by-election.
Labour did surprisingly well in the circumstances - by-election squeeze and the Corbyn effect.
Indeed.
There's clearly a core Labour vote which either is impressed by Corbyn and/or strongly hostile to the LibDems.
UKIP I would say have no purpose in the middle class South with this Conservative government.
There niche is at present being a populist working class party.
UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.
UKIP will continue to pick up Blue Labour votes as long as there is a Red Labour leadership.
The ironic thing is that UKIP's continuing existence now benefits only the Conservatives.
Yes, there's still a large number of people in Northern working towns who aren't going to vote Tory, aren't going to vote LD and aren't going to vote for the Islingtonite politics of unlimited immigration and pandering to the Muslim vote.
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Yeah, this seems the most sensible interpretation.
Yes but the constituency has become much more Tory in the last 30 years.
Not really. Douglas Hurd got 56% in 1979 when he had been there a few years and built up his personal vote, which continued until he left the seat.
Mr. Sandpit, it's perplexing how/why UKIP achieved so much success, seemed on the cusp of becoming more significant and yet is now tearing itself apart.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
An excellent result for the Tories last night. Given the default setting for decades is for them to lose by-elections, then saving one is itself news.
But the better outcome is that the LibDems will convince themselves that success lies in being a Remain party. Which is going to look just plain dumb when we trigger Article 50 and they are required to become the EU Rejoiner Party. Good luck with convincing the voters that trading the pound for the Euro and being Brussel's bitch in the cell-block showers is the way to go...
Also, very interesting looking at the Sedgefield by-elelction as a comparator. There, with a Prime Minister stepping down and leaving Parliament, the vote of their party went down from c.60% to c.45%, with the LibDems getting a decent bounce. On that basis, who would have expected the LibDems to actually lose seats at the next General Election? But they did....
F1: a murmur I heard which I forgot to mention previously.
Sadly, it seems the starts will be less topsy-turvy next year due to altering the rules/systems involved (I forget the detail). I prefer the current set-up which often sees a car zoom forward or drift back (happened before, of course, but not as much).
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
I think if they select Nuttall they will get a moderate revival in the North while Corbyn or any leftie successors are running the show at Victoria Street, if they pick any of the others on ticket which appear to be either nutters or nobodies they are going to die. Raheem might be fun for a few weeks though
Labour did surprisingly well in the circumstances - by-election squeeze and the Corbyn effect.
Indeed.
There's clearly a core Labour vote which either is impressed by Corbyn and/or strongly hostile to the LibDems.
UKIP I would say have no purpose in the middle class South with this Conservative government.
There niche is at present being a populist working class party.
UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.
UKIP will continue to pick up Blue Labour votes as long as there is a Red Labour leadership.
The ironic thing is that UKIP's continuing existence now benefits only the Conservatives.
Yes, there's still a large number of people in Northern working towns who aren't going to vote Tory, aren't going to vote LD and aren't going to vote for the Islingtonite politics of unlimited immigration and pandering to the Muslim vote.
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
It was Doncaster not Hartlepool. It depends on the type of chaos Banks is trying to achieve. Though with a potential #indyref2 back on the agenda an " England " branded party would be smart. UKIP's underlying demographic base hasn't gone anywhere and there are many reasons to think they'll be as p***ed off as ever in due course. Setting up new parties is a very difficult thing to do.
'UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.'
If not back to the Tories then to Labour but definitely not the Lib Dems.
Some who used to vote LibDem as a protest against the two-party system or simply a NOTO vote certainly switched to UKIP. And some may very well switch back.
Mr. Sandpit, it's perplexing how/why UKIP achieved so much success, seemed on the cusp of becoming more significant and yet is now tearing itself apart.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
I would say certainly the latter two. It seemed that Farage and his leadership is the only thing keeping them together and pulling in the same direction - and that direction is becoming more fluid in the wake of the Brexit vote.
Labour did surprisingly well in the circumstances - by-election squeeze and the Corbyn effect.
Indeed.
There's clearly a core Labour vote which either is impressed by Corbyn and/or strongly hostile to the LibDems.
UKIP I would say have no purpose in the middle class South with this Conservative government.
There niche is at present being a populist working class party.
UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.
UKIP will continue to pick up Blue Labour votes as long as there is a Red Labour leadership.
The ironic thing is that UKIP's continuing existence now benefits only the Conservatives.
Yes, there's still a large number of people in Northern working towns who aren't going to vote Tory, aren't going to vote LD and aren't going to vote for the Islingtonite politics of unlimited immigration and pandering to the Muslim vote.
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
It was Doncaster not Hartlepool. It depends on the type of chaos Banks is trying to achieve. Though with a potential #indyref2 back on the agenda an " England " branded party would be smart. UKIP's underlying demographic base hasn't gone anywhere and there are many reasons to think they'll be as p***ed off as ever in due course. Setting up new parties is a very difficult thing to do.
Hardcore Kippers are constantly pi**ed about everything. Including the Sun rising each day.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
' The Ribble Valley by-election, in Lancashire, England, took place on 7 March 1991 following the elevation of United Kingdom MP David Waddington to the House of Lords. Michael Carr of the Liberal Democrats won election at his third attempt.
The seat, based largely on the market town of Clitheroe, had previously been safely Conservative but at the time the controversial Margaret Thatcher's "Poll Tax" policy was used by opposition parties against the Conservative candidate. The tax was abolished soon afterwards by Thatcher's successor John Major, who had succeeded Thatcher on her resignation in November 1990. '
New Conservative PM with high popularity, a LibDem party which is struggling, a campaign based upon a controversial policy in a seat where the Conoservatives had over 60% at the previous general election.
Agreed.
Although there is one big difference between the two. The Ribble Valley campaign was looooooooooooooooong.
There was something like three months between Waddington's elevation and the by-election, as opposed to only just over a month this time around.
I'd also note one other thing: the LDs got 18% of the vote the following year. I don't think anyone would expect the LDs to get 18% next time around.
F1: a murmur I heard which I forgot to mention previously.
Sadly, it seems the starts will be less topsy-turvy next year due to altering the rules/systems involved (I forget the detail). I prefer the current set-up which often sees a car zoom forward or drift back (happened before, of course, but not as much).
Ooh, didn't see that. Personally I prefer this year's unpredictability, the cars should be difficult to drive. However we had the first big start line shunt in years at Singapore, in a scenario that can put drivers in the hospital (or worse) given the speed differential involved - an F1 car starting at the back of the grid is doing 150mph as it crosses the pole position
In other F1 news, Ross Brawn was approached by the powers that be to make suggestions on running the circus. For those who like F1 and already have the fantasy novels of the brilliant Mr Thaddeus White, Mr Brawn has a book coming out just in time for Christmas. http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/126747/brawn-was-offered-f1-rulemaking-role
Labour did surprisingly well in the circumstances - by-election squeeze and the Corbyn effect.
Indeed.
There's clearly a core Labour vote which either is impressed by Corbyn and/or strongly hostile to the LibDems.
UKIP I would say have no purpose in the middle class South with this Conservative government.
There niche is at present being a populist working class party.
UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.
UKIP will continue to pick up Blue Labour votes as long as there is a Red Labour leadership.
The ironic thing is that UKIP's continuing existence now benefits only the Conservatives.
Yes, there's still a large number of people in Northern working towns who aren't going to vote Tory, aren't going to vote LD and aren't going to vote for the Islingtonite politics of unlimited immigration and pandering to the Muslim vote.
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
It was Doncaster not Hartlepool. It depends on the type of chaos Banks is trying to achieve. Though with a potential #indyref2 back on the agenda an " England " branded party would be smart. UKIP's underlying demographic base hasn't gone anywhere and there are many reasons to think they'll be as p***ed off as ever in due course. Setting up new parties is a very difficult thing to do.
Hardcore Kippers are constantly pi**ed about everything. Including the Sun rising each day.
Yes. It'll have been the wrong sort of Brexit. Or Brexit never really happened. Or Brexit was ruined by the EU being vindictive. If your world view is you've been shafted by postmodernity and globalisation you aren't going to change that view because we've left the EU. An establishment and governing party like the Tories are going to struggle to hang onto these voters in the medium and long term.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
The underlying trend was that way - nearly 50% in the polls compared to high 30s last time. Of course this wasn't a likely outcome once you factor in the other considerations. But the swing to the Tories on national VI is undeniable without major polling error (and most PB'ers argue the polls overstate Labour).
Which is going to look just plain dumb when we trigger Article 50 and they are required to become the EU Rejoiner Party.
They might but I don't think that follows. It's very common - normal even - for opposition parties to oppose doing something until it's been done, but then not to support undoing it. This is even more true if it's not actually possible to go back to the status quo ante.
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I forget where I read it (most likely the BBC site but no idea what the article was).
Just a note that another fantasy novel of the brilliant Mr Thaddeus White should be coming out before Christmas 2016, so don't spend *all* your pocket money on Brawn's book [I need it rather more than he does ].
Mr. Essexit, a very good counterpoint. That said, has he not always had divisions in the party? Hard to say if that's because of him or that the show only stayed on the road because of him.
Mr. Indigo, I wonder what changed for Nuttall. Maybe he feels it's now or never.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
The underlying trend was that way - nearly 50% in the polls compared to high 30s last time. Of course this wasn't a likely outcome once you factor in the other considerations. But the swing to the Tories on national VI is undeniable without major polling error (and most PB'ers argue the polls overstate Labour).
I don't think applying swings from a VI poll to predict the results of a by-election has ever worked. It's an entirely different beast.
Which is going to look just plain dumb when we trigger Article 50 and they are required to become the EU Rejoiner Party.
They might but I don't think that follows. It's very common - normal even - for opposition parties to oppose doing something until it's been done, but then not to support undoing it. This is even more true if it's not actually possible to go back to the status quo ante.
My bet - assuming we actually leave - is that the LibDem position on the EU will be similar to Labour's on the Euro - to join when the time is right. Which of course, not least because we won't be wanted, it won't be, for a long time.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
Labour did surprisingly well in the circumstances - by-election squeeze and the Corbyn effect.
Indeed.
There's clearly a core Labour vote which either is impressed by Corbyn and/or strongly hostile to the LibDems.
UKIP I would say have no purpose in the middle class South with this Conservative government.
There niche is at present being a populist working class party.
UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.
UKIP will continue to pick up Blue Labour votes as long as there is a Red Labour leadership.
The ironic thing is that UKIP's continuing existence now benefits only the Conservatives.
Yes, there's still a large number of people in Northern working towns who aren't going to vote Tory, aren't going to vote LD and aren't going to vote for the Islingtonite politics of unlimited immigration and pandering to the Muslim vote.
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
It was Doncaster not Hartlepool. It depends on the type of chaos Banks is trying to achieve. Though with a potential #indyref2 back on the agenda an " England " branded party would be smart. UKIP's underlying demographic base hasn't gone anywhere and there are many reasons to think they'll be as p***ed off as ever in due course. Setting up new parties is a very difficult thing to do.
Ah yes, H'Angus the Monkey in Doncaster. Agree with you about the NOTA Brexit vote in these areas, it has to go somewhere, and right now that place is going to be sitting on the sofa and not bothering - unless someone can talk to them in their own language and get them out on the day, as happened in June. Just keeping them registered until 2020 is going be enough of a problem though!
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
There is some genuinely terrible spin incoming.
If you want to see terrible spin get over to LibDemVoice.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
There is some genuinely terrible spin incoming.
If you want to see terrible spin get over to LibDemVoice.
I hope they have returned to their constituencies, and are preparing for government!
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences. No one will even remember Farage or UKIP by the next election.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I forget where I read it (most likely the BBC site but no idea what the article was).
Just a note that another fantasy novel of the brilliant Mr Thaddeus White should be coming out before Christmas 2016, so don't spend *all* your pocket money on Brawn's book [I need it rather more than he does ].
I will buy your book myself, and will put Brawn's book on the family Christmas list. Will you have an e-book version?
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences and as a result their future is tied to it.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
You had me till Corbyn Roger. If it's Brexigeddon then yes, a Blair, a Liz Kendall even a John Smith could lead a one off revolt in Tory Remainia to construct a FPTP majority. But not Corbyn.
1. The LibDems threw everything at this one, so while the result is a good one for them, we can't ignore the amount of effort they put in.
2. Labour voters are still wary of voting tactically for the LibDems. If the LibDems hope to make significant gains in 2020, that needs to change.
3. The LibDem by-election machine is working, and their activist base is enthused. Even though this was a seat they were always highly unlikely to win, they had no problems in finding hundred (or even thousands) of volunteers to help.
4. The reason for the big push from the LibDems was to motivate their own activist base. This morning there are a few thousand LibDem activists who are feeling enthused, and think that it was a great result and they're making progress.
Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences and as a result their future is tied to it.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
You had me till Corbyn Roger. If it's Brexigeddon then yes, a Blair, a Liz Kendall even a John Smith could lead a one off revolt in Tory Remainia to construct a FPTP majority. But not Corbyn.
Agreed. The introduction of Corbyn as final flourish ruined an otherwise astute analysis by Roger.
Mr. Sandpit, it's perplexing how/why UKIP achieved so much success, seemed on the cusp of becoming more significant and yet is now tearing itself apart.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
A single issue protest party where the single issue is on its way out. No (respectable) philosophical tradition to fall back upon and little to unite them other than dislike of the EU. Both their principal politician and their principal financial backer always saw and treated the party as their personal plaything rather than a genuine member-based organisation. And their sudden electoral success and lack of 'bottom' attracted carpet-baggers and others interested in political office for the wrong reasons.
Their only purpose now is as a protest vehicle against "too soft" Brexit, which will probably see a return to their earlier days with a small number of very vocal very agitated fanatics failing to make much impact amongst the wider population, who are mostly watching and anxiously waiting to see how things turn out.
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences. No one will even remember Farage or UKIP.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
Whilst sympathetic Roger, I think the Remain and pro-EU groups need to wake up to the new political reality of the UK.
The UK voted to go. We will leave. It will be bumpy, but the political will is there to see it through.
The pro-EU, internationalist position is nowhere. Change is 20-40 years away.
Think Labour in 1983 and you're not far from the mark.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
A shame the civil service wasn't allowed to start planning for it earlier.
Am still surprised that the Batley By-election was uncontested. The death of Jo Cox was a vile act, but Labour should not have been given a free run by Cameron in the first place.
Indeed. It was a ludicrously sentimental decision. The voters in that constituency should have been offered a choice.
On Witney, this looks like a warning to the Tories not to take the voters for granted.
Conservative 45.0 Labour 28.8 LD 20.3 Green 2.2
Was the result in 2001 when Cameron took the seat.
Conservative 43.0
When Shawn Woodward took it in 1997
Conservative 45.23
When Douglas Hurd took it in 1974 as Mid Oxon.
So despite all the spin what we can say is that 45% of Witney voters will vote for a new Tory candidate with no personal vote. Otherwise half the Labour vote has moved to the LDs and the Kippers, which given the Corbyn situation should not be news.
Its not any type of warning at all. Dave had a huge personal following. People voted for him because he was a good guy and the PM. He isn't there anymore. New Tory candidate in the by election=, not surprising the vote fell.
But Libdems campaigned hard on sofy vs hard Brexit and came from 6.8% to 30%.
And at a time when a new PM is in her honeymoon and, according to the national polls, riding high with both opposition parties on their backs. There can have been no (net) anti-government vote last night; the polls suggest that the Conservative vote should have gone up, cancelling out the new candidate effect, So the votes the Tories did lose to the LibDems were almost certainly concerned about Brexit.
The Tory vote should have gone up? You're having a laugh, surely?
There is some genuinely terrible spin incoming.
If you want to see terrible spin get over to LibDemVoice.
I hope they have returned to their constituencies, and are preparing for government!
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
As predicted. Meanwhile Leavers will just stand with their fingers in their ears and shout 'Remoaner' as loud as they can until they get their P45.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
I hate to say it, but I find that much more convincing than SeanT's "all shall be well" messages from senior sources.
Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
I have to say the Labour result is odd, given how terrible Corbyn is.
I hate to say it, but I find that much more convincing than SeanT's "all shall be well" messages from senior sources.
SeanT peddles fiction for a living
I take everything SeanT states as the truth, to be the truth. I am not disputing that he gets these messages, just saying that they seem unduly optimistic.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
I hate to say it, but I find that much more convincing than SeanT's "all shall be well" messages from senior sources.
Morning all , pretty happy with my forecast , turnout spot on , Con and LD shares within 1% , Labour under estimated , minor parties slightly over estimated .
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences. No one will even remember Farage or UKIP by the next election.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
Corbyn is not really so Pro-EU, he just nominated Hoey !
I draw only three conclusions from this by-election:
1) The Lib Dems aren't completely dead yet. 2) Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is resilient at a low level. Compare and contrast the Labour result in Christchurch in 1993. 3) There's a gap in the market in the centre that the Lib Dems by themselves aren't filling adequately.
The result pretty panned out as expected, with a slightly higher turnout than I thought.
I would add that given this is a high water mark for May, things could get rocky for the Tories if generally adverse effects manifest from an attempt to drive a harder than necessary Brexit.
The political will for Brexit is clear and unwavering. It's not going away. Yet at the same time, there is no good way to implement it. Today the only approach in play with any definition is the scorched Earth, hard Brexit. What's more there is no path to anything else.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
A shame the civil service wasn't allowed to start planning for it earlier.
Hard to plan for something when we don't even know what kind of Brexit we want.
It was an unnecessary Byelection caused by a party six years into government. In that context it's a very good result for the Conservatives. Governing parties frequently lose similar by elections and here they held on by 15%. I don't think these figures preclude or deter #Mayday in anyway. That said the Lib Dem performance is very noteworthy. We've seen the ability of them to do this in LA By-Elections with gathering speed. But parliamentary byelections are in much bigger areas requiring far more resources and are more strongly contested by others. It's the first evidence of any recovery in national elections. They went backwards in Wales and London this May. The relative failure to squeeze the Lab/Grn votes further suggests this is very much a work in progress but previously it was work that hadn't started.
As for Brexit the depressing reality of the Byelection is a Remain MP has been replaced by a Leave one. Local selectorates will do this in most Tory vacancies now. However the real politics of Brexit hasn't even started yet. For instance *if* the devaluation of the £ holds we'll have a 12 month period where average prices rise faster than average wages. The most recent predictions point to 0.8% to 1% GDP growth next year - which won't feel like growth. Who knows what will actually happen but the capacity for Brexit to be a loose but durable prism for domestic politics is certainly there.
Cameron was never going to be a remain activist if he stayed in parliament. The tories will hound out remainers like labour will hound out moderates. Points to a lib dem resurgence.
I hate to say it, but I find that much more convincing than SeanT's "all shall be well" messages from senior sources.
SeanT peddles fiction for a living
No, Scott, SeanT is a provocateur.
He writes to provoke a response as do some others on here - he does it very well though. He frames an argument simply to get those on one side so agitated they throw out a shouty response which he jumps on.
He's got a big vocabulary (so he thinks) but essentially he can't debate.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
A shame the civil service wasn't allowed to start planning for it earlier.
Hard to plan for something when we don't even know what kind of Brexit we want.
Some effort at planning scenarios might have illuminated that decision.
"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “As the 2010 election showed, when the British people find themselves in total despair with all other options exhausted, they’ll take a punt on the Liberal Democrats.
“And if Britain continues to metaphorically set fire to its own house without any plan for escape, I think we can see increasing support from voters taking a reckless leap into the unknown.
“Hopefully we can get big enough to bugger up another general election. That’s the dream.”"
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
A shame the civil service wasn't allowed to start planning for it earlier.
Hard to plan for something when we don't even know what kind of Brexit we want.
I dunno, they could have spent some they have spent some time wargaming some more likely scenarios. I accept Scott's point that it isn't the duty of the civil service to make policy, but for such a monumental vote you would have thought something would have been done before hand.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
A shame the civil service wasn't allowed to start planning for it earlier.
Hard to plan for something when we don't even know what kind of Brexit we want.
I hate to say it, but I find that much more convincing than SeanT's "all shall be well" messages from senior sources.
SeanT peddles fiction for a living
No, Scott, SeanT is a provocateur.
He writes to provoke a response as do some others on here - he does it very well though. He frames an argument simply to get those on one side so agitated they throw out a shouty response which he jumps on.
He's got a big vocabulary (so he thinks) but essentially he can't debate.
Don't forget he had his own moment of Referendum regret iirc. When he suddenly thought of all his friends jobs.
Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Plan is for an initial e-book launch, then a paperback version to come out early next year [not used CreateSpace before so I can't be sure of timings].
'We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.'
You obviously missed the referendum campaign clips on the Daily Politics show where Cameron ,Osborne plus leavers all confirmed that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market.
Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
I have to say the Labour result is odd, given how terrible Corbyn is.
There was no chance of Corbyn running the country as a result of last night's by-elections.
A general election campaign should focus the minds somewhat on the range of possible outcomes.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
A shame the civil service wasn't allowed to start planning for it earlier.
Hard to plan for something when we don't even know what kind of Brexit we want.
Contingency planning?
Like your favourite Canadian ?
On the by-election, a nice result from both a personal and betting perspective (Even if I went for the very safe and unoriginal CON win.. Every £9.12 helps as Tesco say ^_~)
I dunno, they could have spent some they have spent some time wargaming some more likely scenarios. I accept Scott's point that it isn't the duty of the civil service to make policy, but for such a monumental vote you would have thought something would have been done before hand.
A lot of time in local Government is spent contingency planning based on numbers of children needing school places over a 10-20 year period, life cycle property maintenance costs and above all funding scenarios with a declining share of central Government support.
One response from more thoughtful Councils has been to invest in property and to live off rental yields from commercial sites in town centres and changes to procurement rules no longer confine Councils to their own areas.
"Leave" won with a whole bunch of 'lazy voters' who will only ever turn out for the referendum and not for a BE in a million years.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
A very good point.
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Because, like it or not, we voted out, despite all the warning about what would happen.
We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.
Except it was mentioned numerous times by both sides that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market.
Had a very illuminating conversation with an "in the know" earlier this week. Word from the heart of Brexit government is that it's headless chicken territory. Hundreds of experts in search of a single clue. A very senior figure in the government is pretty certain things are going to be as bad or worse than expected - not least because no practical idea to resolve the situation can get past the nutcase ideologues who seek to make our country poorer.
I hate to say it, but I find that much more convincing than SeanT's "all shall be well" messages from senior sources.
Its easy to envisage a new voting pattern developing along Remain-Leave lines particularly if the Brexit disaster many expect comes to pass. The Tories have now taken 100% ownership of the LEAVE campaign and all its consequences and as a result their future is tied to it.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
You had me till Corbyn Roger. If it's Brexigeddon then yes, a Blair, a Liz Kendall even a John Smith could lead a one off revolt in Tory Remainia to construct a FPTP majority. But not Corbyn.
Agreed. The introduction of Corbyn as final flourish ruined an otherwise astute analysis by Roger.
if you take the idea that Brexit implodes reasonably quickly and the voters want to punish the Tories by voting for an opposition-ANY OPPOSITION- I couldn't see a short term ending that didn't involve Labour being at the vanguard and that involves Corbyn.
Comments
1) The Lib Dems aren't completely dead yet.
2) Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is resilient at a low level. Compare and contrast the Labour result in Christchurch in 1993.
3) There's a gap in the market in the centre that the Lib Dems by themselves aren't filling adequately.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribble_Valley_by-election,_1991
' The Ribble Valley by-election, in Lancashire, England, took place on 7 March 1991 following the elevation of United Kingdom MP David Waddington to the House of Lords. Michael Carr of the Liberal Democrats won election at his third attempt.
The seat, based largely on the market town of Clitheroe, had previously been safely Conservative but at the time the controversial Margaret Thatcher's "Poll Tax" policy was used by opposition parties against the Conservative candidate. The tax was abolished soon afterwards by Thatcher's successor John Major, who had succeeded Thatcher on her resignation in November 1990. '
New Conservative PM with high popularity, a LibDem party which is struggling, a campaign based upon a controversial policy in a seat where the Conoservatives had over 60% at the previous general election.
Yes but the constituency has become much more Tory in the last 30 years.
Much ado about nothing.
As for Brexit the depressing reality of the Byelection is a Remain MP has been replaced by a Leave one. Local selectorates will do this in most Tory vacancies now. However the real politics of Brexit hasn't even started yet. For instance *if* the devaluation of the £ holds we'll have a 12 month period where average prices rise faster than average wages. The most recent predictions point to 0.8% to 1% GDP growth next year - which won't feel like growth. Who knows what will actually happen but the capacity for Brexit to be a loose but durable prism for domestic politics is certainly there.
Cameron 49.3
LD 23
Lab 22
also ran 5.7
which is not a million miles from what we got last night.
'Good morning, everyone.
Much ado about nothing.'
Couldn't agree more,particularly after all the Lib Dem ramping.
New candidate with no personal vote, replaces PM with high personal vote,in mid term low turnout by-election and wins with less votes.
If, as it looks, UKIP are close to death, I wonder if Arron Banks might want to fund the English Democrats in these seats. They had a mayor in Hartlepool a few years back IIRC.
Was Farage just bloody useless at man management? Was the party structure wide open to discord? Was it attempting to straddle a philosophical gap too large?
'UKIP are going to be extinct soon, their job having been done.
Their votes will not always go to the Tories, as so many did not start there.'
If not back to the Tories then to Labour but definitely not the Lib Dems.
But the better outcome is that the LibDems will convince themselves that success lies in being a Remain party. Which is going to look just plain dumb when we trigger Article 50 and they are required to become the EU Rejoiner Party. Good luck with convincing the voters that trading the pound for the Euro and being Brussel's bitch in the cell-block showers is the way to go...
Also, very interesting looking at the Sedgefield by-elelction as a comparator. There, with a Prime Minister stepping down and leaving Parliament, the vote of their party went down from c.60% to c.45%, with the LibDems getting a decent bounce. On that basis, who would have expected the LibDems to actually lose seats at the next General Election? But they did....
Sadly, it seems the starts will be less topsy-turvy next year due to altering the rules/systems involved (I forget the detail). I prefer the current set-up which often sees a car zoom forward or drift back (happened before, of course, but not as much).
All's well that ends well.
Mr. B2, I agree. If UKIP revive, that's bad for the yellows.
F1 in the afternoon today, nyoom!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/17/ukip-can-have-a-bright-future-but-only-by-uniting-and-turning-it/
looks like a pretty blatant attempt at setting out his pitch.
I doubt they'll show up at a GE either much,
In terms of likely actual voters, the "remainers" may well outnumber the "leavers". Particularly with UKIP in crisis.
Although there is one big difference between the two. The Ribble Valley campaign was looooooooooooooooong.
There was something like three months between Waddington's elevation and the by-election, as opposed to only just over a month this time around.
I'd also note one other thing: the LDs got 18% of the vote the following year. I don't think anyone would expect the LDs to get 18% next time around.
In other F1 news, Ross Brawn was approached by the powers that be to make suggestions on running the circus.
For those who like F1 and already have the fantasy novels of the brilliant Mr Thaddeus White, Mr Brawn has a book coming out just in time for Christmas. http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/126747/brawn-was-offered-f1-rulemaking-role
So why is the increasingly useless May basing her stupid Hard Brexit strategy on a bunch of once in a lifetime voters??!
Just a note that another fantasy novel of the brilliant Mr Thaddeus White should be coming out before Christmas 2016, so don't spend *all* your pocket money on Brawn's book [I need it rather more than he does
Mr. Essexit, a very good counterpoint. That said, has he not always had divisions in the party? Hard to say if that's because of him or that the show only stayed on the road because of him.
Mr. Indigo, I wonder what changed for Nuttall. Maybe he feels it's now or never.
It's not difficult imagine a Lib/Lab/Pro EU tactical voting block emerging. There are a possible 17,000,000 people who have an interest. Depending on how disasterous our EU exit turns out to be it's not even impossible to see a route to Corbyn being our next PM.
.
Will you have an e-book version?
1. The LibDems threw everything at this one, so while the result is a good one for them, we can't ignore the amount of effort they put in.
2. Labour voters are still wary of voting tactically for the LibDems. If the LibDems hope to make significant gains in 2020, that needs to change.
3. The LibDem by-election machine is working, and their activist base is enthused. Even though this was a seat they were always highly unlikely to win, they had no problems in finding hundred (or even thousands) of volunteers to help.
4. The reason for the big push from the LibDems was to motivate their own activist base. This morning there are a few thousand LibDem activists who are feeling enthused, and think that it was a great result and they're making progress.
Well, a decent result for the LDs and about what a lot of people expected. I think if you had offered it to Tim Farron three weeks ago he'd have taken it. It's not quite back to the 1983 number but better than anything achieved in the interim.
For the Conservatives, as some have mentioned, a kind of reset back to the core number. In case no one has mentioned it, compare with Sedgefield after Blair's departure in 2007. Phil Wilson's vote share fell about as much as Robert Courts' - having the PM as your MP does build a significant personal vote and the new MP doesn't have that.
Labour did, I think, very well. There's always been a strong core Labour vote in Witney and although they reached 30% in 1997 they've never been lower than 13%. It would have needed a complete Labour vote collapse for Liz Leffman to have got any closer and under the current circumstances, for Labour to hold on most of their 2015 vote, isn't a bad effort.
It's not a natural UKIP area and I suspect the Greens will be possibly the most disappointed this morning. A recovering LD vote poses a big threat to them.
The night's local by-elections offer in the same way something for everyone. Gains for Labour, the Conservatives and the LDs and it may be the County elections next year will look better for the Conservatives as they recapture seats from UKIP even if they lose some to the LDs in some areas.
As for Batley, I thought the decision of the Conservatives and LDs not to contest the seat was wrong - it wasn't the decision taken after Ian Gow's murder in 1990 and while what happened to Jo Cox was reprehensible and was rightly condemned by all, that isn't in and of itself an excuse for suspending the rules of democratic life no matter how difficult.
Democracy has to be stronger than any individual and any event or its subversion is only a matter of time and circumstance.
Their only purpose now is as a protest vehicle against "too soft" Brexit, which will probably see a return to their earlier days with a small number of very vocal very agitated fanatics failing to make much impact amongst the wider population, who are mostly watching and anxiously waiting to see how things turn out.
When can we expect £350 million extra a week for the NHS?
The UK voted to go. We will leave. It will be bumpy, but the political will is there to see it through.
The pro-EU, internationalist position is nowhere. Change is 20-40 years away.
Think Labour in 1983 and you're not far from the mark.
That was, is and remains the central issue...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-civil-service-confronts-brexit-unprepared-1468004403
So they should have planned for staying in the single market. Or leaving. Or both. Or neither.
It's ludicrous.
Until the politicians sort out what they want, the civil servants can't plan for it.
I would add that given this is a high water mark for May, things could get rocky for the Tories if generally adverse effects manifest from an attempt to drive a harder than necessary Brexit.
The political will for Brexit is clear and unwavering. It's not going away. Yet at the same time, there is no good way to implement it. Today the only approach in play with any definition is the scorched Earth, hard Brexit. What's more there is no path to anything else.
It's going to be nasty.
The tories will hound out remainers like labour will hound out moderates.
Points to a lib dem resurgence.
He writes to provoke a response as do some others on here - he does it very well though. He frames an argument simply to get those on one side so agitated they throw out a shouty response which he jumps on.
He's got a big vocabulary (so he thinks) but essentially he can't debate.
"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “As the 2010 election showed, when the British people find themselves in total despair with all other options exhausted, they’ll take a punt on the Liberal Democrats.
“And if Britain continues to metaphorically set fire to its own house without any plan for escape, I think we can see increasing support from voters taking a reckless leap into the unknown.
“Hopefully we can get big enough to bugger up another general election. That’s the dream.”"
@Jobabob
'We voted to LEAVE THE EU, not the single market/EEA and EFTA. May's scorched earth policy makes no sense, economic - or political.'
You obviously missed the referendum campaign clips on the Daily Politics show where Cameron ,Osborne plus leavers all confirmed that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/789378006980653056
A general election campaign should focus the minds somewhat on the range of possible outcomes.
On the by-election, a nice result from both a personal and betting perspective (Even if I went for the very safe and unoriginal CON win.. Every £9.12 helps as Tesco say ^_~)
One response from more thoughtful Councils has been to invest in property and to live off rental yields from commercial sites in town centres and changes to procurement rules no longer confine Councils to their own areas.
Leavers can shout at me now.