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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May doesn’t have a Willie and it shows. She urgently and desperately needs a Willie in her government

Rumour that sidelined Philip Hammond on verge of quitting cabinet over hard Brexit. https://t.co/oAT4EcWpjY

Read the full story here

MTimT

first?

Moses_

Secondo

DecrepitJohnL

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

nunu

Fourth like McMullin.

MTimT

"people might infer Mrs May is wholly unsuited to be Prime Minister'

I would suspect only those people who already did not want her to be Prime Minister. If Hammond left on a principle that could not be squared with the realistic options available to the government (respecting the mandate of the referendum within the context of what the EU27 will offer), then no-one would conclude that she is unfit to be PM based solely on that issue.

IanB2

Sixth like UKIP

SimonStClare

Afternoon all.

There appears to be a running theme on here - The Eagle doth protest too much, methinks…

Moses_

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

MTimT

snap!!

Moses_ said:

Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

DecrepitJohnL

MTimT said:

"people might infer Mrs May is wholly unsuited to be Prime Minister'

I would suspect only those people who already did not want her to be Prime Minister. If Hammond left on a principle that could not be squared with the realistic options available to the government (respecting the mandate of the referendum within the context of what the EU27 will offer), then no-one would conclude that she is unfit to be PM based solely on that issue.

But who did want Mrs May to be Prime Minister? There was no election. One imagines half the cabinet is now wishing they'd stood for leader. And the problem is not that Mrs May somehow lacks legitimacy, it is that she lacks supporters.

tyson

Oooh you are naughty TSE.

FWIW...I was having lunch today, and I came to the real conclusion that May is just game playing...the whole thing. Hammond too. It's a classy double act..in reality they are thick as thieves. This is all just one charade..May threw some red meat with the grammar schools that will not happen, and now she is using the prospect of hard Brexit, and all that entails to ball bust a few folk, and make it look like she's trying.

I've seen the film...at the end all is well. We'll stay in the single market and May will get some extra concessions on immigration, but we have to go through the dramas first.

IanB2

It is good to see that the Tory opponents of Brexit are starting to organise themselves.

DecrepitJohnL

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And this highlights another mistake the Prime Minister has made. The EU and the major EU nations do not necessarily speak with one voice, but by appointing the three stooges, she has given HMG no way of reading between the lines.

MTimT

DecrepitJohnL said:

MTimT said:

"people might infer Mrs May is wholly unsuited to be Prime Minister'

I would suspect only those people who already did not want her to be Prime Minister. If Hammond left on a principle that could not be squared with the realistic options available to the government (respecting the mandate of the referendum within the context of what the EU27 will offer), then no-one would conclude that she is unfit to be PM based solely on that issue.

But who did want Mrs May to be Prime Minister? There was no election. One imagines half the cabinet is now wishing they'd stood for leader. And the problem is not that Mrs May somehow lacks legitimacy, it is that she lacks supporters.

That may be so. But my point was that a Hammond resignation on this issue per se, where what he wants may simply not be achievable, will not change any minds over May's prime ministerial abilities.

perdix

Instead of taking notice of The Daily Wail and WetOne TSE get to understand Hammond's thinking by watching this video....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-10-06/hammond-on-brexit-productivity-u-k-economy

Sandpit

DecrepitJohnL said:

MTimT said:

"people might infer Mrs May is wholly unsuited to be Prime Minister'

I would suspect only those people who already did not want her to be Prime Minister. If Hammond left on a principle that could not be squared with the realistic options available to the government (respecting the mandate of the referendum within the context of what the EU27 will offer), then no-one would conclude that she is unfit to be PM based solely on that issue.

But who did want Mrs May to be Prime Minister?

Those of us who had backed her in from 12/1 with several hundred quid..?

OllyT

You only have to look at the composition of the recently-announced EU Brexit and Trade Committee to conclude that May has no intention of trying to unite the Tory Party let alone the country. A Hammond resignation would be the final straw.

Richard_Nabavi

If Hammond were to resign, there would be carnage in the financial markets.

Moses_

DecrepitJohnL said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And this highlights another mistake the Prime Minister has made. The EU and the major EU nations do not necessarily speak with one voice, but by appointing the three stooges, she has given HMG no way of reading between the lines.

Merkel
"I want to say very clearly tonight that I see no way to reverse this," Merkel said when asked about the possibility of a British U-turn on Brexit. "We all need to look at the reality of the situation. It is not the hour for wishful thinking."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-britain-merkel-idUKKCN0ZE2UB

A number of other comments since have basically stated the same and concessions unlikely if not impossible. As always there will be a typical fudge. When has the EU ever listened to the outcomes of referendums. At least her government is elected though.

nielh

Evidently her honeymoon is over.
This is consistent with what I've been thinking for the past couple of days, the 'stability' is a mirage and she is up s**t creek on Brexit and knows it. The plan is unworkable and they were bounced in to a speedy brexit by the Leadsom threat.
I don't think Hammond is going to quit over this though, 8/1 is probably right.
Its more likely that the whole government will fall, or the parliamentary troubles will trigger a general election early next year.

nielh

Richard_Nabavi said:

If Hammond were to resign, there would be carnage in the financial markets.

It may be that carnage is necessary to wake people up to the seriousness of the uk's problems

Bromptonaut

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Sandpit

nielh said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If Hammond were to resign, there would be carnage in the financial markets.

It may be that carnage is necessary to wake people up to the seriousness of the uk's problems

It may be that carnage is necessary to wake people up to the seriousness of the EU's problems

williamglenn

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

I'm sticking to my prediction that her polling plunge will outdo John Major from 92-93.

ThreeQuidder

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

As long as the government is committed to delivering on the Leave vote and Labour is ambiguous, the government isn't in any significant trouble.

Moses_

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

PlatoSaid

Lol - perfect

Boston Bobblehead
So Brave! So Courageous! Thank you for coming forward and telling your story. #HillaryGropedMe See more vids at: https://t.co/Y5o9pkhIEr https://t.co/nialQVJ7Tz

Stark_Dawning

May's mandate, such as it was, was to offer a pragmatic and sensible alternative to EU membership - a damage-limitation exercise in short. Instead she dived headlong into pandering to the Kipper fringe. It's too late to row back now. The hard-right own her and won't give her up. Was it inexperience? Was she poorly advised? She had the ideal opportunity to become a unifying figure, but squandered it in a capitulation to the swivel-eyed brigade. One of the great political mysteries of out time.

SouthamObserver

If this cabinet were to lose Hammond its utter awfulness would be almost without parallel. Where are all these talented Tories we were told about?

ThreeQuidder

Stark_Dawning said:

May's mandate, such as it was, was to offer a pragmatic and sensible alternative to EU membership - a damage-limitation exercise in short. Instead she dived headlong into pandering to the Kipper fringe. It's too late to row back now. The hard-right own her and won't give her up. Was it inexperience? Was she poorly advised? She had the ideal opportunity to become a unifying figure, but squandered it in a capitulation to the swivel-eyed brigade. One of the great political mysteries of out time.

Do you understand how negotiations work?

Theuniondivvie

Is having several pricks in your cabinet the same as having a Willie?

NorvilleRogersIII

Theuniondivvie said:

Is having several pricks in your cabinet the same as having a Willie?

That's a good one!

If Theresa May is as unpopular as she seems from the comments I have read, why are the Conservatives so far clear in the polls?

We seem to be living in a strange time where the Conservative leader is disliked by many of her party's supporters for being too Conservative, and the Labour leader is unpopular with his own party's supporters for being a socialist.

IanB2

ThreeQuidder said:

Stark_Dawning said:

May's mandate, such as it was, was to offer a pragmatic and sensible alternative to EU membership - a damage-limitation exercise in short. Instead she dived headlong into pandering to the Kipper fringe. It's too late to row back now. The hard-right own her and won't give her up. Was it inexperience? Was she poorly advised? She had the ideal opportunity to become a unifying figure, but squandered it in a capitulation to the swivel-eyed brigade. One of the great political mysteries of out time.

Do you understand how negotiations work?

But in effect she is more of a mediator (or perhaps is doing two negotiations) between the EU and her own party's headbangers. They both need appropriate conditioning.

williamglenn

ThreeQuidder said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

As long as the government is committed to delivering on the Leave vote and Labour is ambiguous, the government isn't in any significant trouble.

Assuming that your extremist tribal vote has nowhere else to go is one thing, but assuming that your sane centrist voters will stay with you no matter what is highly delusional.

SouthamObserver

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

philiph

We do have an odd acceptance of double standards.

All the indications from EU are Hard Brexit or No Brexit.

A position accepted without criticism as either the only way or an sensible opening negotiating strategy.


TMay says no freedom of movement, it is a disaster, not an opening negotiating strategy.

The two are in fact the same stance at this stage.

IanB2

NorvilleRogersIII said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is having several pricks in your cabinet the same as having a Willie?

That's a good one!

If Theresa May is as unpopular as she seems from the comments I have read, why are the Conservatives so far clear in the polls?

We seem to be living in a strange time where the Conservative leader is disliked by many of her party's supporters for being too Conservative, and the Labour leader is unpopular with his own party's supporters for being a socialist.

You might just as well ask why Clinton is ahead in the polls

Stark_Dawning

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Mortimer

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

IanB2

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

He would need a good excuse, and I don't see one for him yet. He might very well end up arguing for a softer Brexit, but to resign so early in the process when he more than anyone is responsible for the whole mess would look ridiculous.

Moses_

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

Perhaps you missed the part of the comment that stated "Labour heartlands". Since when have they been hard right wing? Odd Remain also avoid Wales as well which is never mentioned either only England. There is nothing solely right wing about it because it's as much right wing as left wing they all spoke as a majority and I am fed up with people that lose throwing toys out of the pram.

If the Remain vote had carried the day by even one vote Remain would have claimed victory and also claimed this was settled for a generation if not for ever. They would have been correct as well.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

I wish Mr. Eagles would get over his infatuation with Theresa May.

Fenster

Stark_Dawning said:

May's mandate, such as it was, was to offer a pragmatic and sensible alternative to EU membership - a damage-limitation exercise in short. Instead she dived headlong into pandering to the Kipper fringe. It's too late to row back now. The hard-right own her and won't give her up. Was it inexperience? Was she poorly advised? She had the ideal opportunity to become a unifying figure, but squandered it in a capitulation to the swivel-eyed brigade. One of the great political mysteries of out time.

For May, the options are free movement or hard Brexit. It's as simple as that.

If you were her, which would you choose?

Her only option - as far as I see it - is to go Hard Brexit and then rebuild from there. It's the only way to save the Tory party from tearing itself apart, to reinforce parliamentary MPs as the democratic representatives carrying out the (imperfect, but majority) will of the people and to avoid potential social unrest and moves to extreme/frankly idiotic parties (like the Trump movement in the States).

Brexit won't be plain sailing (nobody sensible ever thought it would be) but any fudge will likely turn very nasty. I'd simplify it as much as possible. Detach ourselves completely and then start afresh.

Re Hammond - these are extraordinary political times and if his heart is not in Hard Brexit he should say so. He should say he supports free movement and the single market, that his view is at odds with the direction of the May government and step down. Otherwise what is the point of him being in government? He is a servant of the people, in office to carry out the will of the people. If he disagrees with it and can't discharge his duties, then step aside.

Gardenwalker

I am inclined to agree with Tyson that Hammond is playing "good cop" and this is all spin.

The alternative, that Hammond is really being isolated, and is considering his options (after three months!) is rather scary. It would imply that the headbang gang really have taken over the asylum, and May is going for a "Brexit, though the sky may fall" approach.

If Hammon should resign, we would certainly see:
- further sharp falls in the £
- a collapsing confidence in the government's economic management
- falling support for the government

Hammond could actually stop Brexit.

The forces currently encouraging Clegg, Miliband et al would become overwhelming. I'd expect the Tory "Remain" wing, thought to be number at 20 to perhaps double. May's plan to exercise Article 50 would be blown off course. An early election would be announced and I do not think it necessarily obvious that May would win.

An election which becomes hard Brexit versus the rest would be very very bloody. I think we'd see both Tory and Labour splits of some description.

No idea who would replace Hammond as CoE. Possibly Fox.

IanB2

Moses_ said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

Perhaps you missed the part of the comment that stated "Labour heartlands". Since when have they been hard right wing? Odd Remain also avoid Wales as well which is never mentioned either only England. There is nothing solely right wing about it because it's as much right wing as left wing they all spoke as a majority and I am fed up with people that lose throwing toys out of the pram.

If the Remain vote had carried the day by even one vote Remain would have claimed victory and also claimed this was settled for a generation if not for ever. They would have been correct as well.

Nevertheless a very early election (pre A50), particularly if triggered by a big argument within government about the nature of exit, would become a proxy for a second referendum, or at least on hard v soft. That would be unavoidable. Whilst the Tories would be favourites to win given Corbyn, the relative totals of (UKIP+ Tory) v (Lab + LD + Nats) vote would be looked at very closely, and I think the LibDems would be well placed for significant recovery in a lot of southern Tory seats.

Jobabob

Theuniondivvie said:

Is having several pricks in your cabinet the same as having a Willie?

LOL!!! Bravo sir, bravo!

PlatoSaid

Pathe is a superb channel

https://youtu.be/uDH10opN8pk

Mortimer

Gardenwalker said:

I am inclined to agree with Tyson that Hammond is playing "good cop" and this is all spin.

The alternative, that Hammond is really being isolated, and is considering his options (after three months!) is rather scary. It would imply that the headbang gang really have taken over the asylum, and May is going for a "Brexit, though the sky may fall" approach.

If Hammon should resign, we would certainly see:
- further sharp falls in the £
- a collapsing confidence in the government's economic management
- falling support for the government

Hammond could actually stop Brexit.

The forces currently encouraging Clegg, Miliband et al would become overwhelming. I'd expect the Tory "Remain" wing, thought to be number at 20 to perhaps double. May's plan to exercise Article 50 would be blown off course. An early election would be announced and I do not think it necessarily obvious that May would win.

An election which becomes hard Brexit versus the rest would be very very bloody. I think we'd see both Tory and Labour splits of some description.

No idea who would replace Hammond as CoE. Possibly Fox.

Greening or Green.

Fox and Davis are the roles they are or they are nothing.

Also, you seem to have forgotten that the 'headbangers' are now the backbench SDP/orange bookers...

Gardenwalker

philiph said:

We do have an odd acceptance of double standards.

All the indications from EU are Hard Brexit or No Brexit.

A position accepted without criticism as either the only way or an sensible opening negotiating strategy.


TMay says no freedom of movement, it is a disaster, not an opening negotiating strategy.

The two are in fact the same stance at this stage.

Yes, precisely.
As others have posted, it may even be possible to stay in the single market with introduction of some restrictions on FOM. Indeed, I hope this is the outcome.

But all the permutations and trade-offs - from bespoke industry deals through to full North Korea need to be well understood by the government in order to negotiate as best they can.

I am annoyed by grammar schools, remarks about the BoE, and the name and shame policy for foreign workers. I do think Mrs May has missed an opportunity to reassure the European workers already here. But it's too early to say whether May is failing or "swung to the right".

IanB2

Fenster said:

For May, the options are free movement or hard Brexit. It's as simple as that..

If you were her, which would you choose?

(snip )

"Choose" may not be the right word?

If she is a clever strategist (and her ascent to power suggests that she may well be so), then it might be a question of in which direction she would prefer to be forced, and how and when?

IMO May would settle for being pushed (by events, opinion and the markets) towards a softer Brexit - whereas you are right that if she actively leads in that direction her party wont like it at all...

PlatoSaid

And another seriously pissed off Bernie voter

Still handwaving negates it all.

'FMR Bernie Sanders Campaign Director Endorses Donald Trump for President of the United States RT & Post to FB #BernieOrBust #BernieSanders https://t.co/xKUiWRnf57

SouthamObserver

Moses_ said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

Perhaps you missed the part of the comment that stated "Labour heartlands". Since when have they been hard right wing? Odd Remain also avoid Wales as well which is never mentioned either only England. There is nothing solely right wing about it because it's as much right wing as left wing they all spoke as a majority and I am fed up with people that lose throwing toys out of the pram.

If the Remain vote had carried the day by even one vote Remain would have claimed victory and also claimed this was settled for a generation if not for ever. They would have been correct as well.

Exactly - Labour leavers are not going to happily wave through right wing Tory Leaver fantasies.

nielh

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

IanB2

Mortimer said:

Gardenwalker said:

I am inclined to agree with Tyson that Hammond is playing "good cop" and this is all spin.

The alternative, that Hammond is really being isolated, and is considering his options (after three months!) is rather scary. It would imply that the headbang gang really have taken over the asylum, and May is going for a "Brexit, though the sky may fall" approach.

If Hammon should resign, we would certainly see:
- further sharp falls in the £
- a collapsing confidence in the government's economic management
- falling support for the government

Hammond could actually stop Brexit.

The forces currently encouraging Clegg, Miliband et al would become overwhelming. I'd expect the Tory "Remain" wing, thought to be number at 20 to perhaps double. May's plan to exercise Article 50 would be blown off course. An early election would be announced and I do not think it necessarily obvious that May would win.

An election which becomes hard Brexit versus the rest would be very very bloody. I think we'd see both Tory and Labour splits of some description.

No idea who would replace Hammond as CoE. Possibly Fox.

Greening or Green.

Fox and Davis are the roles they are or they are nothing.

Also, you seem to have forgotten that the 'headbangers' are now the backbench SDP/orange bookers...

No, the headbangers are the people who want to jump over the cliff without peering first over the edge, as they have been all along.

Gardenwalker

Mortimer said:

Gardenwalker said:

I am inclined to agree with Tyson that Hammond is playing "good cop" and this is all spin.

The alternative, that Hammond is really being isolated, and is considering his options (after three months!) is rather scary. It would imply that the headbang gang really have taken over the asylum, and May is going for a "Brexit, though the sky may fall" approach.

If Hammon should resign, we would certainly see:
- further sharp falls in the £
- a collapsing confidence in the government's economic management
- falling support for the government

Hammond could actually stop Brexit.

The forces currently encouraging Clegg, Miliband et al would become overwhelming. I'd expect the Tory "Remain" wing, thought to be number at 20 to perhaps double. May's plan to exercise Article 50 would be blown off course. An early election would be announced and I do not think it necessarily obvious that May would win.

An election which becomes hard Brexit versus the rest would be very very bloody. I think we'd see both Tory and Labour splits of some description.

No idea who would replace Hammond as CoE. Possibly Fox.

Greening or Green.

Fox and Davis are the roles they are or they are nothing.

Also, you seem to have forgotten that the 'headbangers' are now the backbench SDP/orange bookers...

No, headbangers are the headbangers.
They are the mob determined to Brexit at all and any cost. Perhaps you are one of them, I don't know.

We Remainer Tories/Orange Bookers are perhaps best known as Wets.

chestnut

100% Real Brexit or Remain supposedly.

Yet 50% of goods from the US come into the EU tariff free. CETA lifts Canadian access to 99%.

It's time the whining Remainers - especially those with constituencies that voted Leave - got with the programme or did the honourable thing and resigned to seek re-election.

IanB2

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

It is like many revolutions - the Russian one comes to mind - where the revolutionary ultras first have to build broad enough support among moderate opponents of the regime to topple the status quo, and then try to seize control of the revolution so as to thrust it in the direction of their distinctly minority prospectus. We are now entering the second phase, a battle for what Brexit actually means.

NorvilleRogersIII

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

The people on the losing side don't accept the 96/4 result in Hungary either.

SimonStClare

PlatoSaid said:

Pathe is a superb channel

ttps://youtu.be/uDH10opN8pk

Rousing stuff indeed - however, when I hear the received pronunciation of the narrator and the full orchestral backing, I'm always reminded of a Harry Enfield spoof...

ThreeQuidder

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate.

It's a majority. That's all that was needed.

malcolmg

NorvilleRogersIII said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is having several pricks in your cabinet the same as having a Willie?

That's a good one!

If Theresa May is as unpopular as she seems from the comments I have read, why are the Conservatives so far clear in the polls?

We seem to be living in a strange time where the Conservative leader is disliked by many of her party's supporters for being too Conservative, and the Labour leader is unpopular with his own party's supporters for being a socialist.

Your village is looking for you if you cannot answer that one yourself, unless you have just arrived from outer space.

Gardenwalker

IanB2 said:

Fenster said:

For May, the options are free movement or hard Brexit. It's as simple as that..

If you were her, which would you choose?

(snip )

"Choose" may not be the right word?

If she is a clever strategist (and her ascent to power suggests that she may well be so), then it might be a question of in which direction she would prefer to be forced, and how and when?

IMO May would settle for being pushed (by events, opinion and the markets) towards a softer Brexit - whereas you are right that if she actively leads in that direction her party wont like it at all...

I have said all along that parliamentary maths let alone negotiating strategy dictate that she start "hard", then pivot to soft once she has a larger majority.

This necessitates an election shortly before or perhaps after an Article 50 declaration, predicated on a high level "deal" with Merkel, Tusk, etc.

I think the odds of an election next year are around 50pc and rising.

IanB2

ThreeQuidder said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate.

It's a majority. That's all that was needed.

It is all that is needed for a very soft Brexit as well, which would be an entirely legitimate way of respecting the result.

malcolmg

Jobabob said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is having several pricks in your cabinet the same as having a Willie?

LOL!!! Bravo sir, bravo!

Good day Bob , hope you are well

Sean_F

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

PlatoSaid

Yup

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-fact-checkers-keep-destroying-fact-checking/article/2604163

Gardenwalker

ThreeQuidder said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate.

It's a majority. That's all that was needed.

A majority was needed to deliver a majority.
Beyond that it doesn't mean much. Up to May to work that out. It could even mean "Remain". I'd put the odds of that at 10, 15 %.

nielh

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

It is like many revolutions - the Russian one comes to mind - where the revolutionary ultras first have to build broad enough support among moderate opponents of the regime to topple the status quo, and then try to seize control of the revolution so as to thrust it in the direction of their distinctly minority prospectus. We are now entering the second phase, a battle for what Brexit actually means.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Mortimer

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

They are the headbangers now.

Gardenwalker

chestnut said:

100% Real Brexit or Remain supposedly.

Yet 50% of goods from the US come into the EU tariff free. CETA lifts Canadian access to 99%.

It's time the whining Remainers - especially those with constituencies that voted Leave - got with the programme or did the honourable thing and resigned to seek re-election.

Key word there is "goods".
We are very reliant on "services".

Must try harder, and perhaps brush up on how parliamentary democracy works too.

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

On the contrary it's the Brexit hardcore who are so committed to the cause that they are blind to the political risks.

Gardenwalker

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

Says the man who spent the last few years supporting a party dedicated to removing Cameron from office.

Mortimer

nielh said:

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

It is like many revolutions - the Russian one comes to mind - where the revolutionary ultras first have to build broad enough support among moderate opponents of the regime to topple the status quo, and then try to seize control of the revolution so as to thrust it in the direction of their distinctly minority prospectus. We are now entering the second phase, a battle for what Brexit actually means.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Leave said they'd be outside of the single market. There is therefore most definitely a mandate.

YellowSubmarine

Certainly the briefing by, around and against Hammond is febrile and astonishingly early in the government. It's like late Thatcher but only a 100 days in to this government. So the persistent bruwfing around Hammond shouldn't be ignored. That said #1 Occam's Razor. There are several simpler interpretations of all of this than the Chancellor being on the edge of a nuclear resignation. #2 This may all be about the Treasury not the Chancellor. I doubt they like no longer being the most powerful government department. #3 As ever we mustn't believe things because we want to believe things. I believe Brexit is slowly going wrong albeit no faster or further than I expected it to by this stage. A Chancellor's resignation would be brilliant for my world view which s why I'm catious. In summary the belief Hammond is about to walk means two things are true. Firstly May had absolutely no idea what his views were when she appointed him. Secondly May is unhinged as every politician knows what losing a Chancellor within 100 days means. These two points re May might be true. But it seems unlikely and there is no other evidence to support it.

FrancisUrquhart

‘ISIS-supporting' group (CAGE) that claimed Jihadi John ‘wouldn’t hurt fly’ is given Home Office visas allowing it to bring in foreign workers

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3840832/Home-Office-grants-visas-ISIS-supporting-charity-described-Jihadi-John-beautiful-young-man.html

Essexit

Don't do it, Philip! I'm £150 up if Liam Fox is first to go.

chestnut

nielh said:

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

Scotland Leave/Yes polled 45% and lost in SIndy, yet who is driving the agenda up there? The Leave UK lot.

Why? They have one aim that unifies them beyond usual tribal affiliation.

Scotland Remain/No bods however loathe each other, so are divided and a pretty incompetent electoral force as a consequence.

Transpose that onto the EU debate and then try to imagine Corbyn sympathisers voting Osborne, and Osborne fans voting Jezza.

It's fairly obvious that working class Labour and UKIP leavers will back Theresa just as Tartan Tories and Glaswegian Labourites have backed Sturgeon to dominance up in Scotland.

Gardenwalker

Mortimer said:

nielh said:

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Leave said they'd be outside of the single market. There is therefore most definitely a mandate.

Which Leave?
There were multiple Leaves, and no particular manifesto. That's why when Cameron resigned, Gove et al shrugged and screamed "we weren't supposed to come up with a plan!"

In that, they were right.

And you are wrong.

Sandpit

PlatoSaid said:

Yup

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-fact-checkers-keep-destroying-fact-checking/article/2604163

I picked up on this a while ago. Media running "Fact Check!!!" Articles full of partisan spin and semantic nitpicking really don't inform the public about anything except media bias.

PlatoSaid

Awkward and most entertaining

'Next time a liberal wants to call you an Islamophobe, show them how the exalted DNC knows we have justification for concern #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/rkMYSIRAFo

IanB2

Michael Gove during the campaign:

"After we vote to leave we will remain in the [free trade] zone"

Mortimer

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

Says the man who spent the last few years supporting a party dedicated to removing Cameron from office.

Let me explain the initials UKIP for you...

Little to do with Cameron, almost everything to do with his Europhilia.

Essexit

Mortimer said:

nielh said:

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

It is like many revolutions - the Russian one comes to mind - where the revolutionary ultras first have to build broad enough support among moderate opponents of the regime to topple the status quo, and then try to seize control of the revolution so as to thrust it in the direction of their distinctly minority prospectus. We are now entering the second phase, a battle for what Brexit actually means.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Leave said they'd be outside of the single market. There is therefore most definitely a mandate.

I like how £350m/week for the NHS is talked about by Remain as if it was a manifesto commitment, but Michael Gove (and David Cameron, for that matter) clearly saying that Leave meant leaving the Single Market is just hand-waved away.

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/787685797164113922

NorvilleRogersIII

IanB2 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate.

It's a majority. That's all that was needed.

It is all that is needed for a very soft Brexit as well, which would be an entirely legitimate way of respecting the result.

If David Cameron had not resigned, there would be nowhere near as much fuss over "Hard versus Soft" Brexit; the government who were elected called a referendum and would have a mandate to implement the result however it chose.

Leavers would have probably complained that Cameron was favouring "Soft Brexit", but their anger would surely have been diluted by the fact he gave them what they wanted in the first place, and Remainers would have been getting what they are after now despite losing the count.

A dereliction of duty from Mr Cameron say I,

Sean_F

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

Says the man who spent the last few years supporting a party dedicated to removing Cameron from office.

UKIP was and is dedicated to leaving the EU.

Sandpit

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

It really does seem that way some days.

Good article from Tim Stanley this morning, worth reading in full.

"Brexit means we're leaving the EU. It's not a crisis. It's an exercise in democracy."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/15/brexit-means-were-leaving-the-eu-its-not-a-crisis-its-an-exercis/

"...We are leaving the EU; the details will out as the process takes its course. Why is that so hard to grasp? It’s not, of course. Most of the high-profile critics of the Prime Minister are fiercely intelligent and they understand entirely how Brexit works. They just don’t want it to happen. So they take every bit of bad news, every bump in the road as an excuse to shout: “Stop the car! Reverse, reverse!”

"I don’t blame them for feeling this way – their sense of principle is not in question. What is irritating is the disguise of opposition to Brexit as something else. For instance, they are all now fans of parliamentary sovereignty and insist that Parliament debate Brexit. These are people who for forty years were happy to let Brussels dictate UK legislation. No, they are not reasserting the power of Parliament. They are using Parliament in a last ditch attempt to overturn the result of the referendum. They seem to imagine that they can talk this thing out until the next election. And what would happen then? The Tories would be returned with a huge majority and get on with Brexit anyway.

Why? Because the people want Brexit. It was a democratic choice, not a coup by ideologues..."

Gardenwalker

Mortimer said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

Says the man who spent the last few years supporting a party dedicated to removing Cameron from office.

Let me explain the initials UKIP for you...

Little to do with Cameron, almost everything to do with his Europhilia.

The idea that Cameron was some kind of foaming Europhile is farcical.

Cavalier in his constitutional responsbilities, yes.
Unconvinced by the case for leaving the EU, certainly.
An incompetent negotiator, I'll let you have.

To headbangers like you, everyone's a Europhile. Indeed use of the word is one of the classic symptoms of headbangerism.

Possibly, you have a terminal case.

nielh

Mortimer said:

nielh said:

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

It is like many revolutions - the Russian one comes to mind - where the revolutionary ultras first have to build broad enough support among moderate opponents of the regime to topple the status quo, and then try to seize control of the revolution so as to thrust it in the direction of their distinctly minority prospectus. We are now entering the second phase, a battle for what Brexit actually means.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Leave said they'd be outside of the single market. There is therefore most definitely a mandate.

The mandate is to 'take back control'.
FWIW I subscribe to the flexcit plan, this is by far the most sensible approach to leaving the EU. However, these people are totally sidelined out the debate at the moment, showing how much the agenda has been seized by Hard brexit ultras.

chestnut

Gardenwalker said:

Key word there is "goods".
We are very reliant on "services".

Must try harder, and perhaps brush up on how parliamentary democracy works too.

I suppose their 8000 plus businesses that rely on UK passports - 2600 more than ours reliant on EU ones - will be wondering what will happen too.

Do you happen to have any figures handy?

You know % of our economy that is EU service exports - and then the amount that would be at risk. I'm sure it makes interesting reading, rather than just blurting 'oh but but services'.

Parliamentary democracy? MPs should represent their constituents, not themselves.

Mortimer

IanB2 said:

Michael Gove during the campaign:

"After we vote to leave we will remain in the [free trade] zone"

Not the same as the single market, and you know it!

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-04-19/michael-gove-says-britains-future-outside-the-eu-would-also-be-outside-the-single-market-but-what-does-that-mean/

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

Yup

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-fact-checkers-keep-destroying-fact-checking/article/2604163

I picked up on this a while ago. Media running "Fact Check!!!" Articles full of partisan spin and semantic nitpicking really don't inform the public about anything except media bias.

There is also the bias by omission. CNN live "fact checking" on the second debate was basically all checks on what Trump said, I think only 2 on Clinton, of which neither were big claims.

Now one might say that is because Trump just comes out with whoppers every other sentence, but even from that link Clinton when she screams fact check fact check on my website, actually she isn't being truthful.

Gardenwalker

Sean_F said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

Says the man who spent the last few years supporting a party dedicated to removing Cameron from office.

UKIP was and is dedicated to leaving the EU.

And, oft-cited, the destruction of the Conservative party.

It's nice you're back on board, but rather rich of you to be calling traitor.

IanB2

Mortimer said:

nielh said:

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

It is like many revolutions - the Russian one comes to mind - where the revolutionary ultras first have to build broad enough support among moderate opponents of the regime to topple the status quo, and then try to seize control of the revolution so as to thrust it in the direction of their distinctly minority prospectus. We are now entering the second phase, a battle for what Brexit actually means.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Leave said they'd be outside of the single market. There is therefore most definitely a mandate.

I just posted Michael Gove's comment, which shows that you are wrong.

edit/ or maybe wrong is too strong - but the onus is now on Leave to deliver a solution that keeps us in the free trade zone.

Moses_

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

And toodle pip to the current floor levels for Sterling. The May Government is already getting into stormy seas, parity with the Euro would hole it below the waterline.

Well I guess this is the Remainers best and only hope now.

Desperate to use anyway to overturn the will of the people this will do just fine. To be honest I am much more worried regarding the British people's views being ignored. There may be some " carnage in the markets" no doubt always is when chancellors play games but the carnage in the country will be infinitely worse. There will not be enough pitchforks and burning torches to go around particularly from the Labour heartlands that voted to leave.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

Ok what figure was needed. Why was that figure stated before the polls opened? I would suggestRemain thought they were going to win and win easily so didn't bother. As they did not bother then it works on a majority unless you can point me to anywhere, anywhere at all that states it must be a 53% minimum or more is required or for that matter any figure? Any at all anywhere???

If you can't then just give it a rest eh?

Theuniondivvie

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/787655928288083968

Casino_Royale

*ahem*

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1301447/#Comment_1301447

"I wouldn't go quite that far. But May does need a Willie (why has no-one written this thread header yet?) to help her gauge the mood."

At least someone listens to me ;-)

chestnut

Gardenwalker said:

Mortimer said:

nielh said:

IanB2 said:

nielh said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

Bromptonaut said:

Moses_ said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

To be fair, Mrs Thatcher also spent many, many years at odds with her chancellor.

Yes that's a point, It seems to be normal though as Blair and Brown were hardly buddies most of the time. Perhaps it's nature of the beast.
Our elected government have already been told by an EU unelected official it's hard Brexit or just remain. So I guess it's toodle pip Mr Hammond.

Right wing Leavers - happy to throw the British people to the dogs to get what they want - would be wise not to count on everyone who voted Leave believing it is worth any and every cost.

This is the problem in a nutshell.
The problem is that 52% is NOT any kind of resounding, absolute mandate. It is paraded about as if it was such a unaminous decision there is no way back. We are all brexiters now. blah blah blah.
As if it was 96/4 or something, like the Hungarian migrant referendum. Or even 68/32, like the 1975 result.
But 52/48 is nothing like that.
Motivated leavers only make up a relatively small part of the 52%. Many others will have been persuaded by claims made in the referendum. I won't rehearse them here, but many of the claims have been discredited by events.
The longer the gov't put off triggering Art 50, the more this becomes apparent.
They want to freeze June 24th in time. But the world is very volatile and things are changing rapidly in politics.
This is the leavers dilemma.

yes - this.
The post referendum phase saw the agenda seized by a hard brexit minority.
I think May's correlation between the referendum result and the hard brexit agenda, even if it is only a negotiating stance, is an attempt to thrust us in a minority direction, that is what the current parliamentary debate is all about . And what many Eurosceptic remainers (like myself) feared most about the referendum.
There is no mandate for Hard Brexit, as George Osborne says.

Leave said they'd be outside of the single market. There is therefore most definitely a mandate.

Which Leave?
There were multiple Leaves, and no particular manifesto. That's why when Cameron resigned, Gove et al shrugged and screamed "we weren't supposed to come up with a plan!"

In that, they were right.

And you are wrong.

Leave/Independence is whatever the government of the day decide. It's subject to perpetual change as we change governments and the electorate revises it's wishes. Fairly easy concept, surely?

ThreeQuidder

Gardenwalker said:

Mortimer said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Unlikely as it is, if Hammond goes I can see Boris following. It would be the perfect excuse to extricate himself from a devastated government and the ensuing horror show. He can then return as the Tories' savour later on in the piece (if it isn't all too late by then, of course).

Remoaners talking about a devastated government are engaging in the most delusional of wishful thinking. There are no real obstacles to the current government that cannot be overcome - except the rest of Europe - who can be blamed if they play silly beggars.

I think some of the Remain hard core would rather see Corbyn in power, just so long as they got May out of office.

Says the man who spent the last few years supporting a party dedicated to removing Cameron from office.

Let me explain the initials UKIP for you...

Little to do with Cameron, almost everything to do with his Europhilia.

The idea that Cameron was some kind of foaming Europhile is farcical.

Cavalier in his constitutional responsbilities, yes.
Unconvinced by the case for leaving the EU, certainly.
An incompetent negotiator, I'll let you have.

To headbangers like you, everyone's a Europhile. Indeed use of the word is one of the classic symptoms of headbangerism.

Possibly, you have a terminal case.

How would you describe someone who by his own admission would never have argued that we should Leave?

Gardenwalker

chestnut said:

Gardenwalker said:

Key word there is "goods".
We are very reliant on "services".

Must try harder, and perhaps brush up on how parliamentary democracy works too.

I suppose their 8000 plus businesses that rely on UK passports - 2600 more than ours reliant on EU ones - will be wondering what will happen too.

Do you happen to have any figures handy?

You know % of our economy that is EU service exports - and then the amount that would be at risk. I'm sure it makes interesting reading, rather than just blurting 'oh but but services'.

Parliamentary democracy? MPs should represent their constituents, not themselves.

Incoherent.