And so it begins. The GOP are reaping the whirlwind of the conspirtal seeds they sowed during Obamas presidency. They need to speak out immediately or civil war is indeed coming.
The last time America almost went into civil war was in the 60's over Civil Rights and Vietnam, but those where transient issues and the Cold War helped to keep the United States together (bipartisanship ect).
The hatred between Republicans and Democrats really started the day the Cold War ended, it's about the economy, it's about culture, and with a stagnating economy and rising islamic terrorism everything is in place for armed conflict between the 2 different societies that exist in america today.
You could say there are 2 different societies in Britain too today, but the glue is being kept by a single national identity and a common enemy: Europe.
If civil war does happen in the USA, if we choose to intervene I guess we should ask for Hawaii in return, so SeanT can go on holiday to Hawaii while spending pounds.
The armed conflict will be one sided tho, the RNC and DNC and the state against the Trump Republicans.
And so it begins. The GOP are reaping the whirlwind of the conspirtal seeds they sowed during Obamas presidency. They need to speak out immediately or civil war is indeed coming.
The last time America almost went into civil war was in the 60's over Civil Rights and Vietnam, but those where transient issues and the Cold War helped to keep the United States together (bipartisanship ect).
The hatred between Republicans and Democrats really started the day the Cold War ended, it's about the economy, it's about culture, and with a stagnating economy and rising islamic terrorism everything is in place for armed conflict between the 2 different societies that exist in america today.
You could say there are 2 different societies in Britain too today, but the glue is being kept by a single national identity and a common enemy: Europe.
If civil war does happen in the USA, if we choose to intervene I guess we should ask for Hawaii in return, so SeanT can go on holiday to Hawaii while spending pounds.
Europe is not a 'common enemy' in the U.K., as you claim. Many millions of British people are fond of it, and deeply regret that people like you voted us out. Meanwhile, your posts are becoming increasingly unhinged and hyperbolic, as well as psephologically misleading.
The elites are all on the same side - as are the military and policing structures.
There's a non-negligible short-medium term possibility of some serious civil unrest - specifically right wing terrorism / political assassinations - but nowhere near enough fuel for a civil war.
We're in the middle of a very dirty election campaign - the situ will look very different in three months.
"as are the military and policing structures"
I doubt about that. Most of the rank and file of the military is republican, the police almost 100% republican.
If there is civil war between Republicans and Democrats it's not sure who will win, there would be multiple unit defections from both sides in unexpected areas depending on who wins the election.
It would look like Colombia, a united elite in the cities surrounded by a sea of rebel farmers.
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
Even the SNP get the difference between single market membership and single market access.
Allow me to remind you. As Alec Salmond noted, Peruvian shoe manufacturers get single market access. Single market membership means being a part of, and influencing the rules for that single market.
This latter is what we have just given up. Nor can we reclaim it, regardess of how much we pay (see: Norway).
Of all discussion boards I would have hoped that on PB we need not remind ourselves of the distinction.
Er, I do understand this. I'm saying we will probably be like Norway (despite what Ms May claimed). Paying money to "trade within" the SM - perhaps on a sectoral basis. We will have less influence on the rules than we have now.
In the end, would that be really better than what we had or will it save our "face" by claiming we are independent.
I wonder what assurances did May give Ghosn of Nissan.
Look I know you are angry at the whole EU thing and that's fine. But you won!
If you are going to comment on specifics, ie the City, then perhaps it's best to do some homework. Start with French and Italian FTT and then let me know your thoughts.
I'm far from angry. I'm bemused.
People keep mentioning 'influence' and I am struggling to see it.
I'm also struck by the difference between influence (1/28th) and independence and authority.
No to bailouts - here's £1.7bn for Greece No to asylum deals - here's £500m for Turkey.
Much of current EU financial services regulation started off with the FSA/FCA. If you are unaware of the UK's 'influence' then you haven't been paying attention.
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
Even the SNP get the difference between single market membership and single market access.
Allow me to remind you. As Alec Salmond noted, Peruvian shoe manufacturers get single market access. Single market membership means being a part of, and influencing the rules for that single market.
This latter is what we have just given up. Nor can we reclaim it, regardess of how much we pay (see: Norway).
Of all discussion boards I would have hoped that on PB we need not remind ourselves of the distinction.
Er, I do understand this. I'm saying we will probably be like Norway (despite what Ms May claimed). Paying money to "trade within" the SM - perhaps on a sectoral basis. We will have less influence on the rules than we have now.
Anger from the Europhobes at any deal where we contribute to the EU budget would be a feature not a bug. Any deal which is in our interests will have to be one where our EU friends can claim political victory domestically and in the EU parliament, otherwise they won't be able to get it through. Some idiot indignation from the usual suspects in the UK will help a lot in that.
Agreed. Both sides need to be able to sell/spin the deal. They need to say we got a worse deal than now ( so don't think about leaving domestic voters). We need to say we say who lives here ( we have control).
Perception is all, though there has to be a kernel of truth.
Personally, paying into their kitty for sovereignty and free trade seems a reasonable compromise.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
You really can spot the posters on here who don't work in the financial services, banking, and insurance industries a mile off.
I thought you where a lawyer.
Yup, and I work in house for a company in the financial services industry.
I was recruited because in part of my experience financial services regulation, and my experience such as in prepping for the FSA big bang of October 2004.
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. .
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
Even the SNP get the difference between single market membership and single market access.
Allow me to remind you. As Alec Salmond noted, Peruvian shoe manufacturers get single market access. Single market membership means being a part of, and influencing the rules for that single market.
This latter is what we have just given up. Nor can we reclaim it, regardess of how much we pay (see: Norway).
Of all discussion boards I would have hoped that on PB we need not remind ourselves of the distinction.
Er, I do understand this. I'm saying we will probably be like Norway (despite what Ms May claimed). Paying money to "trade within" the SM - perhaps on a sectoral basis. We will have less influence on the rules than we have now.
In the end, would that be really better than what we had or will it save our "face" by claiming we are independent.
I wonder what assurances did May give Ghosn of Nissan.
May can't save the ' Bankers ' and throw Nissan under the Slovak manufactured Bus. See also the very strange timing of the readable Simon Stephens anti May NHS briefing.
You really can spot the posters on here who don't work in the financial services, banking, and insurance industries a mile off.
So? I can tell those that don't make things. Doesn't make either view more valid not more valid than the retired, students, working in the public sector etc per se.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
Why would that anger eurosceptics? Surely single market access for only the city would be the equivalent of having your cake and eating it. Whether or not the EU would agree is another matter.
"Paying billions"
They might as well try to keep London in the single market, as some special status zone, with attendant contributions. Would be a very popular move in London and would allow p
The elites are all on the same side - as are the military and policing structures.
There's a non-negligible short-medium term possibility of some serious civil unrest - specifically right wing terrorism / political assassinations - but nowhere near enough fuel for a civil war.
We're in the middle of a very dirty election campaign - the situ will look very different in three months.
"as are the military and policing structures"
I doubt about that. Most of the rank and file of the military is republican, the police almost 100% republican.
If there is civil war between Republicans and Democrats it's not sure who will win, there would be multiple unit defections from both sides in unexpected areas depending on who wins the election.
It would look like Colombia, a united elite in the cities surrounded by a sea of rebel farmers.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
When we did our business review earlier on this year, our top risks were
3) A crisis/contagion in the Eurozone, which includes a Euro collapse 2) Brexit 1) Brext and A crisis/contagion in the Eurozone, which includes a Euro collapse happening concurrently.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
Actually we would probably be asked to fork the bill for the eurozone's collapse if we where still inside the EU, after all Britain did contribute to the Bailouts of Death even if it wasn't a euro member.
Actually we would probably be asked to fork the bill for the eurozone's collapse if we where still inside the EU, after all Britain did contribute to the Bailouts of Death even if it wasn't a euro member.
Yes, just as the US and the Eurozone would have to contribute to a bailout of the UK economy if it got into trouble.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
Actually we would probably be asked to fork the bill for the eurozone's collapse if we where still inside the EU, after all Britain did contribute to the Bailouts of Death even if it wasn't a euro member.
Darling signed us up for the bailouts. Osborne came in, said no, got us our money back and then the Eurogroup put in place their own bailout fund that didn't involve the UK or any of the other non-Euro EU countries. So the Euros could ask but there is no need for us to pay anything.
On the Sunday shows this morning the Trump surrogates line was that when Trump was talking about the election being rigged he was talking about the biased media coverage, not election fraud as that would be Crazy to do so without evidence.
The surrogate's Stirling performance was rewarded with this fabulously on message Trump tweet.
Too many tweets make a ....twaaaaa....Trump...as some bloke whose name I can't remember once said.
He is right about the media.
I would support a ban on journalism (not reporting, I consider those two separate things) since it's so much debased and abused everywhere, including Britain.
Anyway the risks of a civil war in america have never been higher for the last 140 years:
Any talk of American civil war is completely barking. The divide is mostly within the right, which is being torn apart, the sane conservatives versus the insane anti government crowd, Reagan vs Trump, as it were. The Democrat division is chicken feed in comparison. How much of Trump's support is that extreme and not the moderates? 10%? 20% at a really big push.
As for a 'war', on one side you have the mostly old, mostly poor, mostly less well informed, on the other everyone else including the political, military and economic establishment. It would be over in less time than that pathetic Turkish coup a few months ago.
Actually we would probably be asked to fork the bill for the eurozone's collapse if we where still inside the EU, after all Britain did contribute to the Bailouts of Death even if it wasn't a euro member.
Yes, just as the US and the Eurozone would have to contribute to a bailout of the UK economy if it got into trouble.
Welcome to the interconnected world.
See also the Nordic Council loan to Iceland or the UK's bilateral loan the RoI as part of the € bail out. *Sighs*
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
You really can spot the posters on here who don't work in the financial services, banking, and insurance industries a mile off.
Indeed. We're apparently far more in touch with the ordinary voter.
17 million voted to Leave, 16 million voted to stay including a majority of working people so can we please dispense with this tedious and ludicrous notion that Brexit was some sort of huge uprising of the "ordinary voter" and all this "will of the people" crap we hear on a daily basis.
Any talk of American civil war is completely barking. The divide is mostly within the right, which is being torn apart, the sane conservatives versus the insane anti government crowd, Reagan vs Trump, as it were. The Democrat division is chicken feed in comparison. How much of Trump's support is that extreme and not the moderates? 10%? 20% at a really big push.
As for a 'war', on one side you have the mostly old, mostly poor, mostly less well informed, on the other everyone else including the political, military and economic establishment. It would be over in less time than that pathetic Turkish coup a few months ago.
Agree. Although some of them probably have enough weapons and tinned food to hold out for quite some time.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
2003: £1 = €1.37
2016: £1 = €1.12
I am not sure which currency is collapsing !
The £ was worth about €1.12 for much of 2010-2013
It is at historically low levels versus the dollar, though.
Relatedly, I've just come back from a nice Times Travel jaunt around the swishiest hotels on Dartmoor (the tasting menu at Gidleigh Park - OMG)
The four and five star hotels were absolutely RAMMED with continental Europeans and Americans. I'd put the percentage of Brit holidaymakers at 10%. And the hotels were all full to bursting.
Dartmoor is popular in October with Germans etc, but this was something special.
Brexit has certainly been good for the UK's hospitality industry, especially at the higher end.
It's good for the economy in general (financial services exempted).
She may not have a Willie in her cabinet, but she's got a Johnson, and he's a right pr*ck! (Warning: that image is not safe for work.)
Meanwhile, there is nearly half a million pounds laying Clinton at 1.17-1.19 at Betfair.
Barring another Clinton Collapse we could see her go off at 1.05 on election day.
That's a big proviso for a lady who will enter her 70th year in 10 days' time and who had pneumonia a month ago.
Terrorist attacks could help Trump. So could a flare-up between Russia and the US in Syria. Most of the discourse about "Putin's" role in this election has been superficial and one-dimensional and not exactly flowing from a deep understanding of the capabilities of Russian intelligence and the nature of modern warfare.
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
ITV news says Hillary hasn't been seen in public this weekend.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
Why risk it...The only thing that can stop her winning is her doing a face plant again. All she needs to do is turn up to the third debate, repeat the focus grouped patter and let Trump blow himself up.
An AEP column. The guy has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro since before it started.
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
Actually we would probably be asked to fork the bill for the eurozone's collapse if we where still inside the EU, after all Britain did contribute to the Bailouts of Death even if it wasn't a euro member.
Darling signed us up for the bailouts. Osborne came in, said no, got us our money back and then the Eurogroup put in place their own bailout fund that didn't involve the UK or any of the other non-Euro EU countries. So the Euros could ask but there is no need for us to pay anything.
The bailout cost is irrelevant compared to the collateral damage. In or out of the EU, we are sufficiently intertwined with the European economies (both trade and finance) that serious problems for the Euro would mean serious problems for us also.
ITV news says Hillary hasn't been seen in public this weekend.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
Debate on Wednesday, usual to do prep isn't it? Or maybe she's having the steroids flushed out of her system or something, just in case WADA come calling.
The elites are all on the same side - as are the military and policing structures.
There's a non-negligible short-medium term possibility of some serious civil unrest - specifically right wing terrorism / political assassinations - but nowhere near enough fuel for a civil war.
We're in the middle of a very dirty election campaign - the situ will look very different in three months.
"as are the military and policing structures"
I doubt about that. Most of the rank and file of the military is republican, the police almost 100% republican. [snip]
This study would appear to indicate otherwise. It's based on the annual Military Times poll and is analysed without any associated methological criticism by the WAPO so it seems pretty kosher.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
I voted leave without a single thought or consideration for the City of London. There's a Britain beyond it.
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!
Local Brexit for local people who were born here? Be careful what you cheer for...
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here?
ITV news says Hillary hasn't been seen in public this weekend.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
Debate on Wednesday, usual to do prep isn't it? Or maybe she's having the steroids flushed out of her system or something, just in case WADA come calling.
Trump has events scheduled tomorrow and on Tuesday, in Colorado and Ohio.
Philip Hammond is a patriot and a hero. To think he is all that stands between us and the absolute catastrophe of having utter fools like Johnson, Fox, Davis, Leadsom and Patel forcing the most damaging form of Brexit on the country is sobering and frightening. Like Labour, it seems as if the Conservative party is on the brink of being captured by extremists. Hold on Phil, hold on.
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
"Influence" is inferior to independence and authority.
You don't understand the terms or context which you are trying to argue, or discuss. No shame in that, just that you are making reasonably uneducated guesses at the situation and it probably feels good to make them.
I am going to bed now, but if you are around tomorrow I promise to spend a bit of time explaining to you what 'influence' we have. That you should state that it is "inferior to independence and authority" is also indicative of your lack of knowledge of the subject.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
I voted leave without a single thought or consideration for the City of London. There's a Britain beyond it.
I'm sure you did. But you were the one who mentioned the FTT, so I am simply pointing out that you don't seem to have understood it.
ITV news says Hillary hasn't been seen in public this weekend.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
She has decided to stop campaigning for a week now.
No idea if it's debate preparation or smugness that she no longer needs to campaign.
Let Trump self-destruct is perhaps a valid strategy. But if (if, note) he starts to claw back some of her lead, it could turn out to be an interesting flawed strategy
Any talk of American civil war is completely barking. The divide is mostly within the right, which is being torn apart, the sane conservatives versus the insane anti government crowd, Reagan vs Trump, as it were. The Democrat division is chicken feed in comparison. How much of Trump's support is that extreme and not the moderates? 10%? 20% at a really big push.
As for a 'war', on one side you have the mostly old, mostly poor, mostly less well informed, on the other everyone else including the political, military and economic establishment. It would be over in less time than that pathetic Turkish coup a few months ago.
Agree. Although some of them probably have enough weapons and tinned food to hold out for quite some time.
The ones who haven't been stockpiling for a while now don't deserve to survive the upcoming confrontation. Luckily the spike in weapons sales over the last 6 months or so have shown that common sense is going to see enough of them through to rebuild in a fresh and free post-SJW society.
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!
Local Brexit for local people who were born here? Be careful what you cheer for...
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here?
Today, it is about Europeans. Tomorrow, it could be you. These people are dangerous. We should not act like Chamberlain.
This dickhead Jackson is on David Davis's negotiating team. Depressing.
To be fair to Jackson, the Economist is a pile of crud these days.
And then people on PB moan why I support dividing the media into Journalists whom mostly write their personal opinion as news, and Reporters whom mostly report the news.
And then banning Journalists because I prefer Reporters.
Case study CNN, they always have some useless models either blonde or brunette ones talking about the news, instead of reporting the news.
This dickhead Jackson is on David Davis's negotiating team. Depressing.
To be fair to Jackson, the Economist is a pile of crud these days.
And then people on PB moan why I support dividing the media into Journalists whom mostly write their personal opinion as news, and Reporters whom mostly report the news.
And then banning Journalists because I prefer Reporters.
Case study CNN, they always have some useless models either blonde or brunette ones talking about the news, instead of reporting the news.
"Whom" is not a fancy alternative spelling of "who".
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!
Local Brexit for local people who were born here? Be careful what you cheer for...
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here?
Today, it is about Europeans. Tomorrow, it could be you. These people are dangerous. We should not act like Chamberlain.
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
I voted leave without a single thought or consideration for the City of London. There's a Britain beyond it.
ITV news says Hillary hasn't been seen in public this weekend.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
It's almost like there's a large important set piece that's going to be watched by millions coming up that she is preparing for.
That might be a valid point if Hillary hadn't been part of the top team running America for 8 years. How much prep does she still need?
They will be looking to bury the Trump campaign at debate 3. Also the moderator is not known for his love of Democrats and the subject matter has been massively expanded from just foreign policy so there is a lot of ground to cover.
And, to be frank, the people who have been doing the campaigning for her this last week are all much better campaigners than her. It's almost no loss to the Dem campaign for Hilary not be involved.
This dickhead Jackson is on David Davis's negotiating team. Depressing.
To be fair to Jackson, the Economist is a pile of crud these days.
And then people on PB moan why I support dividing the media into Journalists whom mostly write their personal opinion as news, and Reporters whom mostly report the news.
And then banning Journalists because I prefer Reporters.
Case study CNN, they always have some useless models either blonde or brunette ones talking about the news, instead of reporting the news.
"Whom" is not a fancy alternative spelling of "who".
Is 'from whence it came' acceptable or an insult to the English language?
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
This outcome was what I predicted about two days after the vote. A fudge where we end up paying hefty contributions, to maintain SM access, but these payments will be called something else to save British face. Free Movement will be "qualified" to "Free Movement if you have a job offer".
The Europeans will be able to point at us and laugh for losing influence while still paying cash, UK voters will begrudgingly accept that this is as good as it gets, for now. And it probably is. Once we are technically out we can slowly pivot further away from the EU over time.
So only the ultra Remainers and ultra Leavers will fume. Perhaps rightly.
That this is the best and most obvious outcome does not mean it will happen. The emotional forces pointing us towards Hard Brexit are significant.
PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!
Local Brexit for local people who were born here? Be careful what you cheer for...
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here?
Today, it is about Europeans. Tomorrow, it could be you. These people are dangerous. We should not act like Chamberlain.
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here
He is suggesting that those who voted Leave are Nazi's.
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
chestnut's wider point is good though. If the UK had real clout, the EU would have offered us a better deal than that ludicrous pile of shite Cameron served up before the referendum.
Theoretically the UK SHOULD have influence, and in some practical forms we do, but we are not in the DNA of the EU the same way as France and Germany. We were not there at the conception, so we never have the rights of a parent. We're like a rich boozy uncle who brings champagne to the Christmas dinner table, and gets sage and onion stuffing and a temporary kind of family in return. But we're not intrinsic, and arguments develop every Boxing Day.
It's a nice metaphor, but arguably the two greatest achievements of the EU: the Single Market and Eastern Enlargement were largely UK initiatives.
Arguably we didn't get a better deal from Cameron's negotiation because he was lazy, arrogant and complacent.
If the EU want to play hardball, fine, we'll just reduce security co-operation. They want to talk big? Lets see them deal with that, the bastards. Your EU employed officials can be ignored, the national governments of the large EU nations where the power is really held will understand the meaning.
As for that bunch at Westminster who don't understand what referendums are about, good luck to Labour in particular, as the areas in the North of England who voted for no, by some margin in many cases, react to attempts to turn that vote on its head.
LOL, will we remove our handful of bathtubs and couple of platoons of infantry.
I think we offer a little more than that being the only EU member of the Five Eyes.
Scotland doesn't though, its got a pitiful capability on intelligence security. Literally s**t, zero contribution, zero capability, its nearly all provided by other parts of the UK for them.
Are you joking? It is absolutely all provided by the UK government; there is a general reservation of "defence", and a specific reservation under Head B of "national security and counter-terrorism". It would be unlawful for Scotland to have any "capability on intelligence security".
Yes I was.
ok sorry - can be hard to tell in the prevailing nuttiness.
He only said that becaUSE HE WAS CALLED OUT FOR BEING A BELLEND
You don't understand the terms or context which you are trying to argue, or discuss. No shame in that, just that you are making reasonably uneducated guesses at the situation and it probably feels good to make them.
I am going to bed now, but if you are around tomorrow I promise to spend a bit of time explaining to you what 'influence' we have. That you should state that it is "inferior to independence and authority" is also indicative of your lack of knowledge of the subject.
A domain!
I don't mean to be rude but I suspect your profession - I'm guessing finance/City - means you have very little grasp or exposure to the societal aspects of this.
There does seem to be a tendency among the finance/pensions people on here to think their world is the be all and end all. Again, there is a much bigger Britain beyond.
ITV news says Hillary hasn't been seen in public this weekend.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
She has decided to stop campaigning for a week now.
No idea if it's debate preparation or smugness that she no longer needs to campaign.
Let Trump self-destruct is perhaps a valid strategy. But if (if, note) he starts to claw back some of her lead, it could turn out to be an interesting flawed strategy
You're right, a week of tight, disciplined campaigning focused on the issues that matter will get Trump right back into this
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
I voted leave without a single thought or consideration for the City of London. There's a Britain beyond it.
FTFY
There was no realistic philosophical alternative to Brexit. It was coming, whatever. Merely a question of WHEN.
Similar to death in that respect, then. I preferred to stave it off for a while, others seem(ed) to welcome oblivion.
We are here now though. We must find the least painful parting and figure out how to maximise the upsides. There must be some.
This dickhead Jackson is on David Davis's negotiating team. Depressing.
To be fair to Jackson, the Economist is a pile of crud these days.
And then people on PB moan why I support dividing the media into Journalists whom mostly write their personal opinion as news, and Reporters whom mostly report the news.
And then banning Journalists because I prefer Reporters.
Case study CNN, they always have some useless models either blonde or brunette ones talking about the news, instead of reporting the news.
"Whom" is not a fancy alternative spelling of "who".
Is 'from whence it came' acceptable or an insult to the English language?
Fine by me, as is I'm not saying nothing (meaning I'm not saying anything)
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!
Local Brexit for local people who were born here? Be careful what you cheer for...
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here?
Today, it is about Europeans. Tomorrow, it could be you. These people are dangerous. We should not act like Chamberlain.
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here
He is suggesting that those who voted Leave are Nazi's.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European Superstate.
Good Night Everyone. It looks like we're getting a Methadone Brexit thanks to Hammond and the Treasury's internal clout. May will then present it as Dunkirk Brexit. A defeat in any conventional terms but it will enter our mythology with pride as it will involve a wirhdrawal from Europe. So that's that then. Until the next media cycle tells us something completely different. What a time to be alive !
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
chestnut's wider point is good though. If the UK had real clout, the EU would have offered us a better deal than that ludicrous pile of shite Cameron served up before the referendum.
Theoretically the UK SHOULD have influence, and in some practical forms we do, but we are not in the DNA of the EU the same way as France and Germany. We were not there at the conception, so we never have the rights of a parent. We're like a rich boozy uncle who brings champagne to the Christmas dinner table, and gets sage and onion stuffing and a temporary kind of family in return. But we're not intrinsic, and arguments develop every Boxing Day.
Alternatively the pile of shite was merely an opening offer which no one expected Cameron to accept, and if he had persevered we could have had a deal reflecting our clout, but Cameron was too lazy and conceited to bother. Edit sorry point already made by Gw.
Seems a good deal to me. Let's see the details. I'd prefer to stay *in* the single market with some face-saving deal on migration - in exchange for payments of some sort. Similar to the deal above, but closer still.
This week's issue looks to be Ireland, however. The border thing seems to have found a possible solution, but much chat on Twitter about the Good Friday agreement. Plus of course, the pound's fall is absolutely screwing Irish exporters.
Oh sure. I favour saving every scrap of the eurosphere we can and the FT briefing would save a lot. It's Methadone Brexit. Doubtless it would satisfy no one and ultras would start campaigning for Cold Turkey but politics is an art not a science.
PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!
Local Brexit for local people who were born here? Be careful what you cheer for...
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here?
Today, it is about Europeans. Tomorrow, it could be you. These people are dangerous. We should not act like Chamberlain.
Sorry, not sure what you're scaremongering about here
He is suggesting that those who voted Leave are Nazi's.
Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a single European Superstate.
Believe in Britain! Be LEAVE!
That's a bit of luck. As a Leaver I thought I'd now have to get an SS Death's Head embroidered on my kippah.
That would have confused them down the synagogue on a Friday night.
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
chestnut's wider point is good though. If the UK had real clout, the EU would have offered us a better deal than that ludicrous pile of shite Cameron served up before the referendum.
Theoretically the UK SHOULD have influence, and in some practical forms we do, but we are not in the DNA of the EU the same way as France and Germany. We were not there at the conception, so we never have the rights of a parent. We're like a rich boozy uncle who brings champagne to the Christmas dinner table, and gets sage and onion stuffing and a temporary kind of family in return. But we're not intrinsic, and arguments develop every Boxing Day.
Alternatively the pile of shite was merely an opening offer which no one expected Cameron to accept, and if he had persevered we could have had a deal reflecting our clout, but Cameron was too lazy and conceited to bother.
Cameron's legacy is so confusing.
Without Brexit, I would have put him in the top flight. It's easy to forget how terribly screwed things seemed in 2008/9 and also how challenging to run a coalition government.
But Brexit immediately puts him on a par with Chamberlain. Even if it turns out successful in 25 years, he might only get promotion to Brown.
Is any website reporting that Clinton is taking a week off? I haven't been able to find any yet.
Far from being unremarkable because normal, or even sensible, disappearing for several days would be idiotic if by choice. It would give a lot of ammunition to her opponent regarding her health, which is one of the main things he's focusing on in his TV advertising.
You were the one discussing FTT and the like, weren't you?
Oh, and immigration.
I was discussing influence and the fairly non-existent presence of it.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
The FTT would only apply to the 10 EU countries that signed up for it. The rest have an opt-out. Exactly how is that evidence of the nasty EU? I'd hate to think you'd voted Leave because you hadn't read beyond the headline.
chestnut's wider point is good though. If the UK had real clout, the EU would have offered us a better deal than that ludicrous pile of shite Cameron served up before the referendum.
Theoretically the UK SHOULD have influence, and in some practical forms we do, but we are not in the DNA of the EU the same way as France and Germany. We were not there at the conception, so we never have the rights of a parent. We're like a rich boozy uncle who brings champagne to the Christmas dinner table, and gets sage and onion stuffing and a temporary kind of family in return. But we're not intrinsic, and arguments develop every Boxing Day.
Alternatively the pile of shite was merely an opening offer which no one expected Cameron to accept, and if he had persevered we could have had a deal reflecting our clout, but Cameron was too lazy and conceited to bother.
Cameron's legacy is so confusing.
Without Brexit, I would have put him in the top flight. It's easy to forget how terribly screwed things seemed in 2008/9 and also how challenging to run a coalition government.
But Brexit immediately puts him on a par with Chamberlain. Even if it turns out successful in 25 years, he might only get promotion to Brown.
Cameron may well be fondly remembered as a great democrat. History views Major far more favourably than he was at the time. Blair has had the opposite effect with time.
Comments
“The financial services industry needs maximum certainty on future trade arrangements with the EU as early on as possible in the negotiations.
“Firms have been planning for the worst, and some of them may start putting those plans into motion if uncertainty drags on for too long.”
You went all ponceyboots gaylord shortly after June 23rd when you thought it was going to bad for the economy
I doubt about that.
Most of the rank and file of the military is republican, the police almost 100% republican.
If there is civil war between Republicans and Democrats it's not sure who will win, there would be multiple unit defections from both sides in unexpected areas depending on who wins the election.
It would look like Colombia, a united elite in the cities surrounded by a sea of rebel farmers.
I wonder what assurances did May give Ghosn of Nissan.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/787757458819284992
Further observation: "arriviste stockbrokers"??
Perception is all, though there has to be a kernel of truth.
Personally, paying into their kitty for sovereignty and free trade seems a reasonable compromise.
It is clear that Labour have absolutely no clue how to cope with the fact that so of their voters in their currently held seats plumped for Leave.
The Tory party is Govt, opposition and third party at the moment.
SNP are scrapping for a bit of publicity and in so doing shooting their own fox re Indy.
LDs - excited by a handful of council seat gains...
It would probably be better for us if we were in the EU when the Euro collapsed as we'd be the dominant power and have a better chance of working the situation to our advantage.
Is Boris Trump-like ?
I was recruited because in part of my experience financial services regulation, and my experience such as in prepping for the FSA big bang of October 2004.
2016: £1 = €1.12
I am not sure which currency is collapsing !
Oh, and immigration.
3) A crisis/contagion in the Eurozone, which includes a Euro collapse
2) Brexit
1) Brext and A crisis/contagion in the Eurozone, which includes a Euro collapse happening concurrently.
The phrase 'Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS' hasn't been uttered for at least a few days...
Welcome to the interconnected world.
As for a 'war', on one side you have the mostly old, mostly poor, mostly less well informed, on the other everyone else including the political, military and economic establishment. It would be over in less time than that pathetic Turkish coup a few months ago.
The deal Dave did tells you all you need to know about our influence on immigation alongside the Turkey payout provoked by Merkel acting like the Empress of Europe.
The bailout of Greece is another example, and earlier this week Moscovici was babbling on about advances on FTT.
https://www.accountancyage.com/2016/10/14/european-commission-told-to-draft-financial-transaction-tax-by-year-end/
"Influence" is inferior to independence and authority.
2017 might be a very good year for the economy.
Just how bloody weird is this election campaign?
No idea if it's debate preparation or smugness that she no longer needs to campaign.
http://www.nationalmemo.com/only-43-8-percent-of-military-identify-as-republican-down-from-56-percent-in-2005/
I am going to bed now, but if you are around tomorrow I promise to spend a bit of time explaining to you what 'influence' we have. That you should state that it is "inferior to independence and authority" is also indicative of your lack of knowledge of the subject.
A domain!
People said the same about Bush in 2004
And then banning Journalists because I prefer Reporters.
Case study CNN, they always have some useless models either blonde or brunette ones talking about the news, instead of reporting the news.
Ohio still challenging for Dems early vote. 10/15/16 comparison to 10/13/12
Coyahoga -18.1%
Franklin -31.9%
49 other counties +0.1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_porch_campaign
And, to be frank, the people who have been doing the campaigning for her this last week are all much better campaigners than her. It's almost no loss to the Dem campaign for Hilary not be involved.
I will not be shocked if the result is exactly like 2012 with the above exemption.
Arguably we didn't get a better deal from Cameron's negotiation because he was lazy, arrogant and complacent.
There does seem to be a tendency among the finance/pensions people on here to think their world is the be all and end all. Again, there is a much bigger Britain beyond.
Check Trump Twitter feed
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
Oh...
I preferred to stave it off for a while, others seem(ed) to welcome oblivion.
We are here now though. We must find the least painful parting and figure out how to maximise the upsides. There must be some.
Believe in Britain! Be LEAVE!
That would have confused them down the synagogue on a Friday night.
Without Brexit, I would have put him in the top flight. It's easy to forget how terribly screwed things seemed in 2008/9 and also how challenging to run a coalition government.
But Brexit immediately puts him on a par with Chamberlain. Even if it turns out successful in 25 years, he might only get promotion to Brown.
Far from being unremarkable because normal, or even sensible, disappearing for several days would be idiotic if by choice. It would give a lot of ammunition to her opponent regarding her health, which is one of the main things he's focusing on in his TV advertising.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/