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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joff Wild says keep an eye on Keir
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joff Wild says keep an eye on Keir
If the Holborn and St Pancras MP is not the first to leave the shadow cabinet, his new Brexit role makes him a decent outside bet in the Labour leadership stakes, writes Joff Wild
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Labourites are always saying the next leader will be a woman.
Labour women are just window dressing.
I do like the 'shock' alternate scenario that Corbyn and Mcdonnell pursue a collegiate approach.
Trumps campaign really do fear more damaging info coming out about him.
If they fear it, its obviously there. Chances are his opponents do have it.
There are signs of pressure starting to come on to Mike Pence. Reportedly Pence is pretty downbeat about the whole show. His separation from Trump, always a weak connection in the first place, is underway. Its just whether he jumps ship.
On topic, yeah lets put a lawyer in. Not sure thats quite the answer for Labour over the next few years.
What I don't understand about this Trump stuff is why it has only become an issue now. All this stuff has been in the public eye for years. It seems another example of the media leading the news rather than the other way around.
However I am seeing reports that the Dems allegedly wanted extreme GoP candidates to make it easier for Hillary to win. If this is the case it will pay off in the short term at a terrible price in the long term.
Only Joking.
Logging off now. Wasted far too much time here this weekend.
"That's why I find people (universally right wing) drawing equivalence between the two candidates quite disingenuous. They know that GOP have made a terrible choice and chosen probably one of the most unfit candidates to be President ever, but they always qualify this by saying Hillary is just as bad or words to that effect. They must know this isn't the case, but they cannot hide their right wing prejudices (sean fear is one of the worst culprits).
"I'm centre left. I know Corbyn is a terrible choice for Labour, terrible and unfit to be PM, not just because of his inability to adapt his thinking to the modern world, living in the past, but also his competence. The re-shuffle this week displayed his inability to understand how to go about creating a plausible alternative.
"That said, I am not so lefty partisan to say that Corbyn is terrible, but May is just as bad because she isn't. She is much more competent."
tyson, for once I agree with you.
I am one of those 'right-wingers' (more libertarian, actually) who was 'anyone but Trump' but who had hoped Trump, once chosen, would turn out to be not as terrible as feared. I do think Hillary will be terrible for the US, but since the debate I have switched to acknowledging that she is by far the lesser of two evils.
For me, his post-debate twitter storm with a former beauty pageant contestant was the final straw. It proved beyond all doubt that he cannot focus, is unable to prioritize and, worst of all, does not have the self-control to avoid rising to the bait. He would be a puppet on Putin's string, the more so the angrier Putin got him. This latest set of revelations only confirms to me that the man is a complete douche bag but, while clearly confirming me in my reluctant conclusion, given that was known all along, is somewhat less shocking to me than his twitter spat.
However, all that said, in analyzing the race even at this stage, I don't think Hillary has it in the bag. If the GOP move decisively against Trump but fail to dislodge him, she will win. But the GOP has proved remarkably ineffective so far. And there is such anger at the system here, and she is such a disliked and weak candidate, we cannot take it for granted that she won't lose it
"US foreign policy always seems ignorant and Ill informed, so I guess my expectations of an improvement aren't that high. Obama has been better than his predecessors TBF. Hilary will probably be OK."
The one thing that US foreign policy is not is ill-informed. Wrong on so many levels (in your view, and frequently mine), yes. But way better informed than any other country's. Indeed, I'd argue that too much information is part of the problem. But that is an entire essay, not a pb post.
Someone was saying on here the other day how much notice foreign governments/media would be taking notice of what was said at the Conservative Party Conference and as a result how dreadful it all was.
Well, I have spent some time this morning looking at the international edition of Der Spiegel. Number of articles mentioning the UK, let alone Brexit or the Conservative Party Conference - zero. There are two or three on the US presidential election, about the same on why German attitudes to asylum seekers/immigrants are what they are, some general finance type stuff (the one on a potential Qatari takeover of Deutsche Bank was particularly interesting) and some other bits and pieces. However, mention of the UK, not a sausage.
Further off topic....theres a story that Syrian insurgents in Northern Syria have been provided some surface to air missiles as a counter to heavy use of Russian and Syrian airpower. Man portable SAMs are limited against mid-altitude operations which have become de-rigeur for a lot of airforces. Might be an issue if you are dropping barrels out the side of a chopper though.
Any such weaponry will have US knowledge of its supply, if not sponsorship.
According to the 2011 census, Scotland is 93% UK-born and 96% white. As you might expect, most ethnic minority people are concentrated in the main cities; the rest of the country is virtually an ethnic monoculture, amongst the whitest places on the face of the Earth.
There is nothing inherently wrong with being a monoculture. We ought simply to bear this in mind the next time that the First Minister of Scotland chooses to remind us of how exceptionally tolerant and welcoming her government and country are (in contrast to the evil Westminster/England, obviously.) It's very easy to pontificate upon complex issues when you don't actually have to deal with them yourself.
Dave will stand on a transgender ticket and Momentum will brand anyone who opposes him as a Trumpite sexist Nazi
I confidently predict he will open the 2020 Labour conference to the tune of "I'm every woman".
I should like to read that essay, Mr. T., but it would be presumptuous to expect you to actually write it.
From where I sit, the USA seem to have gotten just about every major foreign policy decision wrong since 1945.
Also, even with her as Leader I'm sure they'd get well over 100.
presumably you also believe in the tooth fairy.
When the even the DUP has a woman leader maybe it's time just to stop and get real. Which of Blair's babes is going to pass the activist test ?
We're all so caught up in the Brexit story over here that some people don't stop to consider that other countries are (a) getting on with their own lives, and (b) when they do stop to consider the rest of the world, it consists of a whole lot more than just Britain. Some of the more controversial ideas from the conference will doubtless be junked - I heard the Amber Rudd idea about listing foreign workers described as classic dogwhistling, with tough statements on Wednesday followed by measured repudiation on Sunday - and soon forgotten at home, never mind abroad.
If most people don't wake up to politics until a couple of weeks before a general election, what makes us think they pay any attention at all to a party conference.
Clinton 48.5 .. Trump 43.3
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
I'll bear that in mind next time you pontificate on 'complex' issues.
Darren McCaffrey
BREAK: Holly Lynch MP and Conor McGinn MP have resigned from the shadow whips office following Jeremy Corby's recent reshuffle.
What is surprising is that Bush, Kasich, Cruz et al didn't find and exploit it earlier.
#NEW NBC/WSJ/Marist Polls:
Florida:
Clinton 45 (+3)
Trump 42
Johnson 5
Stein 3
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 49 (+12)
Trump 37
Johnson 6
Stein 4
- Employer
- Job title
- Location
- Nationality
And put it all online:
http://www.myvisajobs.com/GreenCard/SearchLCA.aspx?Y=2014&PN=2
The suspicion is that the centrists don't see the problem as Corbyn but the policy differences, and they want to prevent a left-wing candidate from getting on the ballot. Combined with the conspicuous absence of new centrist policy, this isn't a very satisfactory position and goes a long way to alienating the soft left in precisely the way that we've just seen.
Why do you think you know what they want more than they do ?
Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
Pennsylvania - Marist/NBC/WSJ
Clinton 51 .. Trump 39
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-clinton-ahead-florida-pennsylvania-n662076
Florida:
Clinton 46
Trump 44
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 51
Trump 39
https://t.co/fxrd1do3HR https://t.co/BEVsQWsjoK
But regardless of that, they may still be wrong. As previously adumbrated, people are lousy at assessing risk, and can be very Pollyanna-ish while assessing future outcomes. Great wealth and intelligence does not necessarily alleviate this.
If you are at such a party again, try to get a feel about success and costs. What would they consider a success, and what costs would they bear (or get others to bear)? I fear they will be too woolly on the former and too vague (or callous) about the latter.
Hence my concerns.
Who voted for what & why was far more complex than the media narrative.
In Britain parties feel they'd be pushing the boat out to have three foreign policy experts on trhe payroll.
Thanks....good to get a bit of convergence from different perspectives once in a while.
tonight is going to be ugly
EXCLUSIVE — Video Interview: Bill Clinton Accuser Juanita Broaddrick Relives Brutal Rapes:
https://t.co/9j7f8VK9Md
Its kind of like the US Primary System isnt it. The prospective Labour leader has to make themselves attractive to a frothing bunch of hard lefties to have any chance of being selected as leader, but then has to some how row for the centre to have any chance of being acceptable to the voters, and if Corbyn gets his way they will have no chance because at the first sign of rowing there will be the next annual leadership election and they will get kicked out.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300061-ohio-newspaper-breaks-with-tradition-endorses-clinton
Mike Pence told Republican donors Saturday night that he is fully committed to Donald Trump: https://t.co/bs2BueVPft via @WSJ
Wow. Rudy admits Trump was talking about sexual assault and he 'doesnt know' if he did what he said...
OH: Clinton 46, Trump 42
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 40
WI: Clinton 43, Trump 39
All done before Access Hollywood tapes.
@PolhomeEditor: Strange, as I understand Nick Brown told Conor McGinn and Holly Lynch earlier this afternoon he wanted them to stay. twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/…
Seriously, when the Scottish Government tries to virtue signal about how tolerant it is, it's talking about an issue that it does not need to confront. According to the latest available mid-year population estimates, net international migration to England was 307,300 (and that's making the big assumption that the authorities aren't missing large numbers of illegals.) The equivalent figure for Scotland was 19,600. Total population growth was 469,700 in England, which is slightly greater than Liverpool. It was 25,400 in Scotland, which is slightly greater than Elgin. Even accounting for the fact that Scotland is significantly smaller by land area and a small fraction of the size by total population, the disparities - and the difference in the magnitude of their effects - is huge.
England is, on average, much more ethnically diverse and has been subject to much greater levels of inward migration than has Scotland. It is, indeed, very easy for Scottish ministers to tell the world how good they are at dealing with a situation that barely requires their attention.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/08/labour-revolt-over-jeremy-corbyn-sacking-rosie-winterton-reshuffle?CMP=share_btn_tw
These people are not centrists. Corbyn will bring down his own castle.
You mean has experienced the consequences of the immigration and economic policies put forward solely by the governments for which they have voted with varying degrees of enthusiasm. My heart bleeds for the poor, put-upon poppets.
I am thinking: early night then tactical nap afterwards.
It really shows a contempt of the popcorn scoffing public to put such entertainment on so late. Perhaps it is because of the X rating!
The website of the charity claimed to be behind it, and the their annual "Hate Crime 2016" report seem to contain no references whatsoever as far as I can see (help, please), and the independent has no cited data source (to be fair, they never seem to fact check anything).
Nor is there any attempt to assess whether this is due to increased reporting, or whether anonymous online allegations via Report-IT have been assessed for duplicates, or how many reports are due to altered definitions of 'hate' etc.
And when they talk about the "57% hate crime increase after the Referendum" for 4-5 paragraphs they don't acknowledge the official police statement that it has subsided back again within a month, which points out that reporting procedures were changed around the referendum.
http://www.report-it.org.uk/police_release_hate_crime_data_for_june-_august
Suspect there is rather a lot of tabloid outrage trolling going on here by the Independent.
So far, Donald Trump's poll numbers have dropped only -1% after the #TrumpTapes leak.
https://t.co/9EzGVJMghR https://t.co/jDAzSH6Wf3
Although since the government will be negotiating with the EU/countries that make up the EU, it's not that easy to see where parliament will be able to force the government's hand. Either it will be the package as negotiated, or just walk away. Won't it?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote
Make of this what you will.
However they don't like to offend so "Don't know" or "Haven't made my mind up" or even "Probably your party" means they are going to vote for the other lot. The only ones you can rely on are those who enthusiastically say they will definitely vote for you. And even then you can't be sure.
The ones to avoid are the very friendly ones who invite you in, offer you a glass of wine and initiate a long discussion on policy. They are opposition activists who are taking up your precious canvassing time or trying to glean intelligence.