Whatever the general public think of Jeremy Corbyn, the bookies must love him. He has been at the centre of one of the wildest betting markets I can recall, the Next Labour Leader market. He has not yet been leader of the Labour party for a year but already in that time we have seen wild oscillations. In that time, at least fifteen candidates have been traded on Betfair at prices of 10/1 or sh…
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That could be a fun market.
1:51PM
Philip_Thompson said:
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You're hardly inclined to vote Tory at the best of times are you?
She seemed to be to be genuine, though restraining herself at times with the attacks on Corbyn.
I would never vote Tory but have only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections. I will not vote Labour in 2020 if Corbyn is still leader."
Let me guess Justin you voted SWP in 2015, classic swing voter then.........
Oh whoops I thought u said u WILL vite for Corbyn..
......sorry, never mind.
Each debate will be broadcast live on C-SPAN, ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC, as well as all cable news channels including CNN, Fox News and MSNBC among others.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/
But so much of Corbynism is tied up with the man himself. Putting the question of PLP nominations to one side, I think it might still be a struggle for McDonnell if there weren't a decent-sized split first (NB I expect one).
A useful thought exercise would be to work out who you think would win an open contest [current rules] right now (an under-the-bus scenario). Jarvis & Umunna would probably be the early favourites. But I reckon the front runners ought to be Lewis (though getting nominations might be insurmountable), Kinnock & Nandy.
i) How close it was a general election
ii) Are the Tories tearing themselves apart over Briext
iii) Related to ii) though not exclusively, is the economy going mammary glands up
i) Would indicate they don't go with a novice
ii) and iii) they might go with the one that might be conceived as having the best chance of winning the general election/avoiding an extinction level event general election defeat
Labour moderates are battling to see off a plan to install one of Jeremy Corbyn’s allies as the next party leader.
Leading supporters of Mr Corbyn are pushing for a change in the party’s rules that would mean candidates would need the backing of little more than a dozen MPs and MEPs to stand for the leadership.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/moderates-oppose-corbyn-plan-for-hard-left-successor-vxg3vdkn8
Basically, to be nominated, you'd need 5% of MPs/MEPs to back your nomination.
Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.
But posts about the Labour leadership are decidedly depressing.
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-uses-topless-models-to-enforce-speed-limit/ar-AAiyni0?li=BBoPOOl
Unity candidate my arse.
- M. H. Thatcher quoted in "Failure of the Feminists" by Paul Johnson in The Spectator, 2011.
How parties and individuals respond to defeat is as informative than how they respond to victory. Cameron, for example, I suspect, believed after the 2015 GE that the sheer force of his will would be enough to determine the EU Referendum outcome.
It takes parties time to excise the past, come to terms with the present and start facing the future especially after extended periods in Government. Whether it's 13 years or 18, Opposition doesn't come easy if you're used to the limos and the red boxes.
If the hope casts of many on here are to be believed, Labour will be further away from Government after the 2020 GE than they are now. Once the scale of the defeat sinks in, the question for Labour is simple - "do you want to govern again or not ?". Reinvention in Opposition is possible - both main parties have done it - the Conservative Party of 2010 was as unrecognisable from that of 1997 as the Labour Party of 1997 was from that of 1979.
Yet it has to start from the recognition that in order to win voters and votes, the policies which stop people voting for you have to go or be reconsidered. That starts from the choice of leader if that is a deterrent factor. There were people who might have supported Labour in 1992 who couldn't have Kinnock as Prime Minister. There were unquestionably non-Labour voters in 1997 who voted for Blair rather than his party.
The "new" leader has to be that - a complete break from the past with new ideas and a new energy which will contrast vividly with the familiar and increasingly jaded Government team - I picture Dan Jarvis at PMQs against May in 2022 and there will be only one winner and it won't be the Blessed Theresa.
That's all Labour has to do - decide to be serious about getting back into Government. Everything else will flow from that. Indeed, history shows the incumbent Government will be hugely helpful in achieving that objective.
The next time Deputy Leader is elected he will be off
https://youtu.be/N7W0eNR-AKM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-37294307
https://twitter.com/joejglenton/status/773080226175803394
http://reaction.life/sdp-mark-ii-labour-split/?ts
https://twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164
Don't be silly of course they don't.
(o)^(o)
What did she read out ?
Ben
Planet Mason. https://t.co/ttuJAiSMEz
All of these are undeniable signs of a great and wise person.
So why, given this surfeit of utter common sense, do you like Apple products?
Back in January I made my first visit, doing Stoke to Manchester Piccadilly main line for the first time.
A month later I had my first ride on Metrolink (trams), on the Ashton branch (also did Alderley Edge - Wilmslow - Stockport)
Then around a month ago, did the Wilmslow - Airport - Piccadilly rail line.
Two Fridays ago, did Manchester Piccadilly - Huddersfield - Leeds
On Tuesday last week, did the Hadfield/Glossop branch (also was able to complete the triangle at Dinting (ie. coming from Hadfield direct)
And last Friday, did the Bury branch of Metrolink.
As stated previously, I am less convinced than others that Corbyn will seize full control of Labour's machinery. As a result, I'd expect the next leader to come from the soft not the hard left. Lisa Nandy, if she runs, will win; but I have a sneaky feeling Dan Jarvis is going to become a lot more visible over the coming months.
Angela Eagle could never have run this time because of Iraq.
Plus, as a great lover of music, in 2001, the iPod allowed me to carry my entire music collection inside my pocket, that's why I love Apple.
On the substance, I was most struck by the incoherence of Corbyn's questions. He didn't seem to be able to decide whether he was accusing the government of being too generous or too mean with Housing Benefit.
On the effective date of Brexit, the David Allen Green tweets which were posted on the last thread were interesting, but I don't think they should be taken too literally. For political reasons, Article 50 and therefore Brexit are going to have to come into formal effect reasonably quickly; that doesn't necessarily mean that our contributions to the EU budget (and payments from the EU budget to UK programmes) will stop overnight. It's much more likely that there will be a transitional agreement under which both will continue to some extent after we've formally left the EU. So the 2020 EU budget date is not a big issue, I think.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.
https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/773520581056720896
(at least Grammar Schools are free at the point of use, unlike your old school, eh, TSE?)
I had a semicircular desk at one place I worked. Computers monitors surrounded me, bathing me in lovely radiation. Various computers by all sorts of manufacturers sat below them, along with various pieces of prototype hardware. (*)
My footrest was a mid-1990s Mac. It was the best use I could find for it.
I mean, the floppy disc ejection system was a sign of madness in design. How many paperclips died a sordid death in that little hole?
(*) Oh, and the carpets were blue and the partitions pink. Not quite my taste.
Cricket went to Sky a decade ago now and while England famously won the Ashes for the first time in my memory in the final terrestial series in 2005 since then England cricket has come along leaps and bounds. There may be less eyeballs watching the game, but Sky have funded a fortune going through to grassroots levels.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/07/car-packed-with-gas-cylinders-found-near-notre-dame-in-paris
Day release from the nut house?
Barrow - will gain some rural territory and likely flip to Con
South Lakeland - gains some rural territory but is still safe enough
Whitehaven and Workington - combine into one very safe Labour seat
Carlisle - gains some rural territory and becomes safer for Con
Penrith - loses the area around Carlisle and gains territory towards Aspatria. Still very safe Con
So 3L, 2C, 1LD could become 3C, 1L, 1 LD
Oh, wait...
It is curious, though, that NE Wales was indeed rather poor for Labour in GE 2015 (as VoC was lost and the other 4 had much reduced majorities), but across the border in demographically similar English seats, Labour achieved some of its best results (retaking Chester and Wirral West).
I'd be interested to understand why this was.