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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The open field: Picking the next Labour leader

Whatever the general public think of Jeremy Corbyn, the bookies must love him.  He has been at the centre of one of the wildest betting markets I can recall, the Next Labour Leader market.  He has not yet been leader of the Labour party for a year but already in that time we have seen wild oscillations.  In that time, at least fifteen candidates have been traded on Betfair at prices of 10/1 or sh…

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Sandpit

Gold medal?

Pulpstar

Silver !

Tissue_Price

FPT as on topic:

Pulpstar said:

Betting post

Owen Smith is now at something approaching a fair price for the contest: 19.5/20.0 on Betfair.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125575779

I've put £15 on at that price to square off 'all green' on the Labour leadership market, where the only way I can now lose out is if Owen Smith loses the contest and becomes next labour leader (Something I envisage will be coverable at much longer odds post contest).

Yes, trying to lay sub-10 on Next Labour Leader and cover at 20ish on the contest looks fairly sensible. Smith's campaign and strategy don't seem to have gone down too well with many of the "moderates".

TheScreamingEagles

Thanks Alastair, a few weeks ago, when I wrote my seminal piece on why Richard Burgon at 100/1 to be next Labour leader was a bargain, I said I was laying 'the moderates' and backing the Corbynites.

Pulpstar

@Tissue_Price I have a speculative order in on Owen Smith on the "real" market - taking Eagle's price as a guide I've gone for something a little longer than 10-1.

TheScreamingEagles

Are there any markets on the Labour leader at the general election?

That could be a fun market.

SimonStClare

Corbyn will surprise us all and still be in situ come 2020, unless the cough carries him off.

CarlottaVance

FPT:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HurstLlama said:

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

@Cyclefree
Whatever the worries about Brexit, the economy etc, we are really very fortunate.


Unless you are in Syria.

It really is intolerable that such a situation should be allowed to persist; perhaps another legacy of Iraq. Which power is going to commit hundreds of thousands of troops to make and then maintain peace anywhere these days?

Incidentally, I knew Syria somewhat and have good friends who live there. Despite the hideous government, it used to be a NICE place.

Perhaps if the West and the UK had kept its feckin nose out of the Arab Spring nonsense rather than taking sides Syria might still be a Nice Place.

As for Egypt, when they were given a choice the Egyptians elected the Muslim Brotherhood. Whose first action was to start demolishing democracy. In fact regardless of the actions of the "strong men", Egypt has been moving away from liberalism for long time; Christians, secular people who once could flourish there are now openly persecuted and not by the government.

I don't think you ideas hold.

Syria under Assad was a "Nice Place" was it? Interesting theory ...

Nicer than it is now, for sure. In fact to the ordinary person, Syria had a relatively high amount of personal liberty and minorities had a solid amount of state protextion, especially in the context of the Middle East.

Hardly "nice", but probably tolerable for a lot more of its inhabitants than it is now.

Quite a bit nicer than other places at the time. Not nice now.

The point is that an Arab country can be a socially liberal and inclusive place. How can it be delivered by a liberal democracy rather than a brutal dictatorship?

I'm honestly unsure if an Islamic country will ever deliver a stable, secularised democracy. Turkey was the main example and look at how it has changed towards a more Islamic style of government, moving away from secularism. The question is, IMO, does the west prefer stable secular dictatorships or unstable Islamic democracies. The ideal solution of stable secular democracy doesn't exist, and I don't think Islamic culture would ever allow it to exist.

Indonesia (world's most populous Muslim nation) hasn't done so badly over the last two decades - after Suharto fell there have been 5 different Presidents - term limits, so after the current President steps down (hopefully after a second term) literally no one knows who the next President will be, unlike many of its immediate neighbours....

rcs1000

Question: I'm in the US next week, and I think the first presidential debate is on then too. Does anyone know where and on which channel?

nunu

justin124 Posts: 1,789
1:51PM
Philip_Thompson said:
» show previous quotes
You're hardly inclined to vote Tory at the best of times are you?

She seemed to be to be genuine, though restraining herself at times with the attacks on Corbyn.
I would never vote Tory but have only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections. I will not vote Labour in 2020 if Corbyn is still leader."

Let me guess Justin you voted SWP in 2015, classic swing voter then.........

Oh whoops I thought u said u WILL vite for Corbyn..
......sorry, never mind.

TheScreamingEagles

@MSmithsonPB: So far today Ken Livingston doesn't appear to have made any public pronouncement relating to Hitler. Is Ken unwell or something?

MaxPB

JosiasJessop said:

'Stable' dictatorships, secular or otherwise, only exist because they commit acts that subjugate anyone who dares to challenge them, especially internally.

I didn't say otherwise. As I pointed out, it is up to western nations to decide what they prefer, dictators or Islamists. At the moment we're ending up with the worst of all worlds.

Sandpit

Interesting read and well thought through by Alistair, but could still be a long way off settling if Corbyn is as immovable as he seems. Clive Lewis is a good suggestion, from the left but with little baggage - on at 15/1 but only for beer money on the assumption that current favourite Smith will drop substantially in a couple of weeks' time.

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

Question: I'm in the US next week, and I think the first presidential debate is on then too. Does anyone know where and on which channel?

The first debate is on the 26th.

Each debate will be broadcast live on C-SPAN, ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC, as well as all cable news channels including CNN, Fox News and MSNBC among others.

http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/

Tissue_Price

Largely agree with Alastair, as does my book. Burgon, McDonnell & Lewis are my best results.

But so much of Corbynism is tied up with the man himself. Putting the question of PLP nominations to one side, I think it might still be a struggle for McDonnell if there weren't a decent-sized split first (NB I expect one).

A useful thought exercise would be to work out who you think would win an open contest [current rules] right now (an under-the-bus scenario). Jarvis & Umunna would probably be the early favourites. But I reckon the front runners ought to be Lewis (though getting nominations might be insurmountable), Kinnock & Nandy.

FF43

FPT:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

I'm honestly unsure if an Islamic country will ever deliver a stable, secularised democracy. Turkey was the main example and look at how it has changed towards a more Islamic style of government, moving away from secularism. The question is, IMO, does the west prefer stable secular dictatorships or unstable Islamic democracies. The ideal solution of stable secular democracy doesn't exist, and I don't think Islamic culture would ever allow it to exist.

I need to move on, but just to pick up your point. Being a Muslim is the key point of identity for most adherents. Any party they support will recognise that. However that's not any different from Ireland, say, in the old days where the Catholic Church had a huge influence on government but Ireland was still a democracy. It depends on how you define secular government - a government that acts separately from religious authority but could be influenced by it or a government that is completely neutral on religious affairs.

Any real Arab democracy will be in the space occupied by the Muslim Brotherhood, if not that organisation itself. Their big mistake in Egypt was not to make the transition from an insurgency to a political party. It will be mildly Islamist, if you will. In media terms Al Jazeera reflects what most middle class Arabs think. Maybe in the West we are uncomfortable with this and it isn't the politics I would vote for. But it's respectable and it's what most people want

JosiasJessop

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

'Stable' dictatorships, secular or otherwise, only exist because they commit acts that subjugate anyone who dares to challenge them, especially internally.

I didn't say otherwise. As I pointed out, it is up to western nations to decide what they prefer, dictators or Islamists. At the moment we're ending up with the worst of all worlds.

A problem is that there is a continuum between the two in that part of the globe. The acts performed by Islamist dictators and secular dictators are sometimes hard to tell apart, and freedom for the ordinary citizen is restricted, sometimes heavily, in both.

YellowSubmarine

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

Largely agree with Alastair, as does my book. Burgon, McDonnell & Lewis are my best results.

But so much of Corbynism is tied up with the man himself. Putting the question of PLP nominations to one side, I think it might still be a struggle for McDonnell if there weren't a decent-sized split first (NB I expect one).

A useful thought exercise would be to work out who you think would win an open contest [current rules] right now (an under-the-bus scenario). Jarvis & Umunna would probably be the early favourites. But I reckon the front runners ought to be Lewis (though nominations might well be insurmountable], Kinnock & Nandy.

The under the bus scenario would depend on

i) How close it was a general election

ii) Are the Tories tearing themselves apart over Briext

iii) Related to ii) though not exclusively, is the economy going mammary glands up

i) Would indicate they don't go with a novice

ii) and iii) they might go with the one that might be conceived as having the best chance of winning the general election/avoiding an extinction level event general election defeat

YellowSubmarine

In fact there is an intriguing possibility. If they do the seven way debate format again in 2020 Farron could be the only male leader.

bigjohnowls

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

TheScreamingEagles

I've just noticed this article in The Times, it was from Monday.

Labour moderates are battling to see off a plan to install one of Jeremy Corbyn’s allies as the next party leader.

Leading supporters of Mr Corbyn are pushing for a change in the party’s rules that would mean candidates would need the backing of little more than a dozen MPs and MEPs to stand for the leadership.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/moderates-oppose-corbyn-plan-for-hard-left-successor-vxg3vdkn8

Basically, to be nominated, you'd need 5% of MPs/MEPs to back your nomination.

YellowSubmarine

On topic. Strictly Come Dancing could have a big impact on this market.

TheScreamingEagles

YellowSubmarine said:

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

Henry Manson wrote a piece a few months ago wondering if Hillary Clinton was President and Theresa May replaced Cameron, that might be the kickstarter for Labour to go out of their way to ensure a woman leader.

Pulpstar

I think it is High Time Labour had a woman as it's leader now.

AndyJS

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've just noticed this article in The Times, it was from Monday.

Labour moderates are battling to see off a plan to install one of Jeremy Corbyn’s allies as the next party leader.

Leading supporters of Mr Corbyn are pushing for a change in the party’s rules that would mean candidates would need the backing of little more than a dozen MPs and MEPs to stand for the leadership.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/moderates-oppose-corbyn-plan-for-hard-left-successor-vxg3vdkn8

Basically, to be nominated, you'd need 5% of MPs/MEPs to back your nomination.

Yes, rival motions to the NEC/conference is clearly the post-Smith's-loss battleground. It was of course just such a process that led to the SDP's foundation - the one-day Wembley conference that voted to drastically reduce the influence of MPs over the party’s choice of leader and deputy leader.

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

It is only one seat but I think North East Derbyshire turns blue at the next GE.

eek

YellowSubmarine said:

On topic. Strictly Come Dancing could have a big impact on this market.

When he leaves at the end of week 2?

Cookie

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Labour held the majority of these - and all of the Potteries seats - even in 1983. That they now look vulnerable is an indication of the way things have swung in the, er, less metropolitan parts of the country (contrarily, of course, back then the Conservatives comfortably held seats in the more middle class bits of the big cities - Manchester Withington, Sheffield Hallam, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, etc.)

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

Henry Manson wrote a piece a few months ago wondering if Hillary Clinton was President and Theresa May replaced Cameron, that might be the kickstarter for Labour to go out of their way to ensure a woman leader.

Owen Smith wrecked Angela's chances!

Jobabob

Thanks Alastair. Good piece.

But posts about the Labour leadership are decidedly depressing.

SimonStClare

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

Henry Manson wrote a piece a few months ago wondering if Hillary Clinton was President and Theresa May replaced Cameron, that might be the kickstarter for Labour to go out of their way to ensure a woman leader.

Owen Smith wrecked Angela's chances!

Angela Eagle withdrew after Owen Smith secured nominations from more MPs and MEPs than she did. Her lack of appeal was the only thing that wrecked her chances...

bigjohnowls

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

It is only one seat but I think North East Derbyshire turns blue at the next GE.

Could well do. Engels now lives in Market Harbrough too

Jonathan

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

FF43

Pulpstar said:

I think it is High Time Labour had a woman as it's leader now.

Scottish Labour have had two female leaders (out of three leaders in just a few years). Not huge successes it has to be said. Johann Lamont, who I have a soft spot for, was kept well away from campaigning in Indyref. The current incumbent, Kezia Dugdale, has seen support for Labour plummet by a third from an already low point. That may be more due to Corbyn's Scotland First policy than anything Ms Dugdale did, or more likely didn't, do.

YellowSubmarine

Vaguely on topic. < http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/08/31/the-uk-the-eu-labour-all-are-fragile-all-are-worth-preserving/comment-page-1/#comment-655846

DanSmith

Corbyn's position on the EU is insane. He's against the single market and would happily see us come out of it, but at the same time he is totally relaxed about immigration and would pretty much have open borders.

nunu

This might cause a few crashes...

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-uses-topless-models-to-enforce-speed-limit/ar-AAiyni0?li=BBoPOOl

SquareRoot

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

You mean like the investigations he presided over that caused so much unity? err I mean anger.

Unity candidate my arse.

Sandpit

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

Yes, he was directly elected by the membership and a large number of the MPs would support him.

Sunil_Prasannan

YellowSubmarine said:

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

"The feminists hate me, don't they? And I don't blame them. For I hate feminism - it is poison!"

- M. H. Thatcher quoted in "Failure of the Feminists" by Paul Johnson in The Spectator, 2011.

stodge

Afternoon all

How parties and individuals respond to defeat is as informative than how they respond to victory. Cameron, for example, I suspect, believed after the 2015 GE that the sheer force of his will would be enough to determine the EU Referendum outcome.

It takes parties time to excise the past, come to terms with the present and start facing the future especially after extended periods in Government. Whether it's 13 years or 18, Opposition doesn't come easy if you're used to the limos and the red boxes.

If the hope casts of many on here are to be believed, Labour will be further away from Government after the 2020 GE than they are now. Once the scale of the defeat sinks in, the question for Labour is simple - "do you want to govern again or not ?". Reinvention in Opposition is possible - both main parties have done it - the Conservative Party of 2010 was as unrecognisable from that of 1997 as the Labour Party of 1997 was from that of 1979.

Yet it has to start from the recognition that in order to win voters and votes, the policies which stop people voting for you have to go or be reconsidered. That starts from the choice of leader if that is a deterrent factor. There were people who might have supported Labour in 1992 who couldn't have Kinnock as Prime Minister. There were unquestionably non-Labour voters in 1997 who voted for Blair rather than his party.

The "new" leader has to be that - a complete break from the past with new ideas and a new energy which will contrast vividly with the familiar and increasingly jaded Government team - I picture Dan Jarvis at PMQs against May in 2022 and there will be only one winner and it won't be the Blessed Theresa.

That's all Labour has to do - decide to be serious about getting back into Government. Everything else will flow from that. Indeed, history shows the incumbent Government will be hugely helpful in achieving that objective.

JosiasJessop

nunu said:

This might cause a few crashes...

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-uses-topless-models-to-enforce-speed-limit/ar-AAiyni0?li=BBoPOOl

Given Novaya Zemlya gets rather cold in winter, I hope the ladies get to cover up from next month!

bigjohnowls

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

Not acceptable.Responsible for Anti-Democratic moves in current election

The next time Deputy Leader is elected he will be off

PlatoSaid

Lolz

https://youtu.be/N7W0eNR-AKM

Sunil_Prasannan

SimonStClare said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

Henry Manson wrote a piece a few months ago wondering if Hillary Clinton was President and Theresa May replaced Cameron, that might be the kickstarter for Labour to go out of their way to ensure a woman leader.

Owen Smith wrecked Angela's chances!

Angela Eagle withdrew after Owen Smith secured nominations from more MPs and MEPs than she did. Her lack of appeal was the only thing that wrecked her chances...

To which the obvious riposte is "And Owen has PLENTY of appeal, doesn't he?"

Jonathan

bigjohnowls said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

Not acceptable.Responsible for Anti-Democratic moves in current election

The next time Deputy Leader is elected he will be off

Damn it, subtle innuendo does not work on the web.

JosiasJessop

Man punches five-day old baby:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-37294307

YellowSubmarine

Maybe there won't be another Leader of the Labour Party ? Maybe Corbyn is a sign the Prophecy of St Malachy is correct and we're on the last Pope ? I read on the internet the other day that Obama is the last US President. Any of these possibilities at least offer some hope to Britain's Left.

AlastairMeeks

@Jonathan @bigjohnowls I'd be interested in both of your views who would actually constitute a unity candidate in the current febrile environment.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/773515808047820800

Richard_Nabavi

Too many runners in this Labour donkey derby, and in any case we don't even know when the race will be held or what the rules will be. So I think that betting capital and attention are better deployed elsewhere, although I do have some modest positions in the market.

Theuniondivvie

If events and ambition conspire to encourage Lewis to chuck his hat in the ring, expect to see a lot of pics like this.

https://twitter.com/joejglenton/status/773080226175803394

Tykejohnno

DanSmith said:

Corbyn's position on the EU is insane. He's against the single market and would happily see us come out of it, but at the same time he is totally relaxed about immigration and would pretty much have open borders.</blockquote.

(Carrying on from PMQ's)

And under him,they would be never enough houses built with his and labours open door thinking.

PlatoSaid

Cochrane 2p

http://reaction.life/sdp-mark-ii-labour-split/?ts

Tissue_Price

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

Not acceptable.Responsible for Anti-Democratic moves in current election

The next time Deputy Leader is elected he will be off

Damn it, subtle innuendo does not work on the web.

That's odd - everyone always gets sarcasm on the web.

oxfordsimon

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MSmithsonPB: So far today Ken Livingston doesn't appear to have made any public pronouncement relating to Hitler. Is Ken unwell or something?

He hasn't had a drink yet?

Theuniondivvie

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

https://twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

Sean_F

DanSmith said:

Corbyn's position on the EU is insane. He's against the single market and would happily see us come out of it, but at the same time he is totally relaxed about immigration and would pretty much have open borders.

It's not a position I support, but it's logical enough if you think that the EU promotes the interests of capital above those of labour.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

What was it David Cameron said about twitter?

MarkHopkins

Tissue_Price said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic Tom Watson a unity candidate you must be joking

On the contrary, I think Tom has a rare talent for creating unity.

Not acceptable.Responsible for Anti-Democratic moves in current election

The next time Deputy Leader is elected he will be off

Damn it, subtle innuendo does not work on the web.

That's odd - everyone always gets sarcasm on the web.

Don't be silly of course they don't.

(o)^(o)

Pulpstar

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

https://twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

Isn't it her job to answer the questions ?

What did she read out ?

BannedInParis

Lewis Collins is dead

Tykejohnno

JosiasJessop said:

Man punches five-day old baby:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-37294307

Awful.

PlatoSaid

For those blocked by Paul Mason

Ben
Planet Mason. https://t.co/ttuJAiSMEz

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

https://twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

Isn't it her job to answer the questions ?

What did she read out ?

That chap's tweet citing a recent poll which showed when asked who would make the best PM, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn, Don't knows were ahead of Corbyn

YellowSubmarine

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

https://twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

Isn't it her job to answer the questions ?

What did she read out ?

She read out a tweet replying to Corbyn's Twitter feed asking for potential PMQs questions. Suffice to say it wasn't complimentary about Corbyn. Now it seems the guy she quoted to Corbyn is a nutter.

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

What was it David Cameron said about twitter?

TSE, you seem like an utterly solid and sensible chap: you like David Cameron, the Conservatives, and eighties music. You think Cambridge thumps Oxford and you also have great fashion sense.

All of these are undeniable signs of a great and wise person.

So why, given this surfeit of utter common sense, do you like Apple products?

RobD

YellowSubmarine said:

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

https://twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

Isn't it her job to answer the questions ?

What did she read out ?

She read out a tweet replying to Corbyn's Twitter feed asking for potential PMQs questions. Suffice to say it wasn't complimentary about Corbyn. Now it seems the guy she quoted to Corbyn is a nutter.

Hostage to fortune territory.. why not just quote the poll directly?

Sunil_Prasannan

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OMG I've used 'we' when talking about Manchester.

The shame, THE SHAME..

I've been to Madchester SIX times this year!

Back in January I made my first visit, doing Stoke to Manchester Piccadilly main line for the first time.
A month later I had my first ride on Metrolink (trams), on the Ashton branch (also did Alderley Edge - Wilmslow - Stockport)

Then around a month ago, did the Wilmslow - Airport - Piccadilly rail line.
Two Fridays ago, did Manchester Piccadilly - Huddersfield - Leeds
On Tuesday last week, did the Hadfield/Glossop branch (also was able to complete the triangle at Dinting (ie. coming from Hadfield direct)
And last Friday, did the Bury branch of Metrolink.

SouthamObserver

McDonnell is uniformly disliked by the unions. I'd be very surprised if he ever got close to the leadership, especially as part of Corbyn's apparent appeal is his saintliness and humility - two traits you could never accuse McDonnell of possessing.

As stated previously, I am less convinced than others that Corbyn will seize full control of Labour's machinery. As a result, I'd expect the next leader to come from the soft not the hard left. Lisa Nandy, if she runs, will win; but I have a sneaky feeling Dan Jarvis is going to become a lot more visible over the coming months.

Angela Eagle could never have run this time because of Iraq.

TheScreamingEagles

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

What was it David Cameron said about twitter?

TSE, you seem like an utterly solid and sensible chap: you like David Cameron, the Conservatives, and eighties music. You think Cambridge thumps Oxford and you also have great fashion sense.

All of these are undeniable signs of a great and wise person.

So why, given this surfeit of utter common sense, do you like Apple products?

I've had Apple computers since the early 90s.

Plus, as a great lover of music, in 2001, the iPod allowed me to carry my entire music collection inside my pocket, that's why I love Apple.

Richard_Nabavi

On PMQs, I'm not surprised that Theresa May is finding that it's not as easy as Cameron made it look.

On the substance, I was most struck by the incoherence of Corbyn's questions. He didn't seem to be able to decide whether he was accusing the government of being too generous or too mean with Housing Benefit.

On the effective date of Brexit, the David Allen Green tweets which were posted on the last thread were interesting, but I don't think they should be taken too literally. For political reasons, Article 50 and therefore Brexit are going to have to come into formal effect reasonably quickly; that doesn't necessarily mean that our contributions to the EU budget (and payments from the EU budget to UK programmes) will stop overnight. It's much more likely that there will be a transitional agreement under which both will continue to some extent after we've formally left the EU. So the 2020 EU budget date is not a big issue, I think.

Theuniondivvie

BannedInParis said:

Lewis Collins is dead

But he lives on forever in our hearts.

SouthamObserver

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:

On Topic: Does the Tories being on their second female PM favour a female replacement for Corbyn ? It must be driving some left feminists mad.

Henry Manson wrote a piece a few months ago wondering if Hillary Clinton was President and Theresa May replaced Cameron, that might be the kickstarter for Labour to go out of their way to ensure a woman leader.

Owen Smith wrecked Angela's chances!

No, Iraq did.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

What was it David Cameron said about twitter?

TSE, you seem like an utterly solid and sensible chap: you like David Cameron, the Conservatives, and eighties music. You think Cambridge thumps Oxford and you also have great fashion sense.

All of these are undeniable signs of a great and wise person.

So why, given this surfeit of utter common sense, do you like Apple products?

I've had Apple computers since the early 90s.

Plus, as a great lover of music, in 2001, the iPod allowed me to carry my entire music collection inside my pocket, that's why I love Apple.

crApple

justin124

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Carlisle has very different boundaries compared with 1983. Barrow and Copeland could be vulnerable on account of nuclear power issues - though not Workington.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.

TheScreamingEagles

What better proof do you want that grammar schools don't work?

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/773520581056720896

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

What better proof do you want that grammar schools don't work?

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/773520581056720896

Um, excuse me! I went to Grammar School!

(at least Grammar Schools are free at the point of use, unlike your old school, eh, TSE?)

Sunil_Prasannan

Northern Jessies like TSE insisting on First Class train travel

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So, this reading out Qs from the public thing..

twitter.com/MattTurner4L/status/773515624970588164

What was it David Cameron said about twitter?

TSE, you seem like an utterly solid and sensible chap: you like David Cameron, the Conservatives, and eighties music. You think Cambridge thumps Oxford and you also have great fashion sense.

All of these are undeniable signs of a great and wise person.

So why, given this surfeit of utter common sense, do you like Apple products?

I've had Apple computers since the early 90s.

(Snip)

So you had them when they were *really* bad.

I had a semicircular desk at one place I worked. Computers monitors surrounded me, bathing me in lovely radiation. Various computers by all sorts of manufacturers sat below them, along with various pieces of prototype hardware. (*)

My footrest was a mid-1990s Mac. It was the best use I could find for it.

I mean, the floppy disc ejection system was a sign of madness in design. How many paperclips died a sordid death in that little hole?

(*) Oh, and the carpets were blue and the partitions pink. Not quite my taste.

Philip_Thompson

matt said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

F1: Bernie to stay on for three more years. Not sure if that's good or bad tbh, he's the one who pushed through derestricting engine development for 2017 onwards but he is also the architect of the Sky deal which takes F1 off FTA TV.

Bernie will try and cling on until his dying day one way or another. The Putin of F1.

Besides I think it's a bit unfair to blame Bernie for F1 being on Sky. Every sport is ultimately going to either Sky or BT unless it is ringfenced by the government as having to be on FTA. It doesn't matter who is in charge, it would make no sense for any sport not to award the contract to Sky given the money they have at their disposal.

It depends how short or long term their vision is. Cricket more or less solely on Sky runs a real risk of ultimately killing it in E&W. Revenue in the short term though. Domestic rugby is not helping itself equally. It won't matter to soccer but for minority (but substantial) sports it's a poisoned chalice.

Not sure I agree. I grew up as a teenage England fan in Australia in the nineties. Not exactly an excellent time for cricket in E&W.

Cricket went to Sky a decade ago now and while England famously won the Ashes for the first time in my memory in the final terrestial series in 2005 since then England cricket has come along leaps and bounds. There may be less eyeballs watching the game, but Sky have funded a fortune going through to grassroots levels.

FrancisUrquhart

Car packed with gas cylinders found near Notre Dame in Paris

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/07/car-packed-with-gas-cylinders-found-near-notre-dame-in-paris

Day release from the nut house?

GarethoftheVale2

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Carlisle has very different boundaries compared with 1983. Barrow and Copeland could be vulnerable on account of nuclear power issues - though not Workington.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.

Cumbria is expected to be bad for Lab as 6 seats reduce to 5

Barrow - will gain some rural territory and likely flip to Con
South Lakeland - gains some rural territory but is still safe enough
Whitehaven and Workington - combine into one very safe Labour seat
Carlisle - gains some rural territory and becomes safer for Con
Penrith - loses the area around Carlisle and gains territory towards Aspatria. Still very safe Con

So 3L, 2C, 1LD could become 3C, 1L, 1 LD

John_M

Richard_Nabavi said:

On PMQs, I'm not surprised that Theresa May is finding that it's not as easy as Cameron made it look.

On the substance, I was most struck by the incoherence of Corbyn's questions. He didn't seem to be able to decide whether he was accusing the government of being too generous or too mean with Housing Benefit.

On the effective date of Brexit, the David Allen Green tweets which were posted on the last thread were interesting, but I don't think they should be taken too literally. For political reasons, Article 50 and therefore Brexit are going to have to come into formal effect reasonably quickly; that doesn't necessarily mean that our contributions to the EU budget (and payments from the EU budget to UK programmes) will stop overnight. It's much more likely that there will be a transitional agreement under which both will continue to some extent after we've formally left the EU. So the 2020 EU budget date is not a big issue, I think.

Agreed. I think what will upset the Tory right will be how transitional our separation will likely be. I expect us to ease, rather than break away from the EU.

ThreeQuidder

nunu said:

This might cause a few crashes...

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-uses-topless-models-to-enforce-speed-limit/ar-AAiyni0?li=BBoPOOl

I didn't see any of those when I was in Russia

Scott_P

JosiasJessop said:

So you had them when they were *really* bad.

As we discussed the other day, when an Apple machine gets stuck in an endless update, fail reboot cycle it's a total nightmare.

Oh, wait...

GIN1138

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the effective date of Brexit, the David Allen Green tweets which were posted on the last thread were interesting, but I don't think they should be taken too literally. For political reasons, Article 50 and therefore Brexit are going to have to come into formal effect reasonably quickly; that doesn't necessarily mean that our contributions to the EU budget (and payments from the EU budget to UK programmes) will stop overnight. It's much more likely that there will be a transitional agreement under which both will continue to some extent after we've formally left the EU. So the 2020 EU budget date is not a big issue, I think.

I still think early 2017 for A50, we LEAVE early 2019.

justin124

GarethoftheVale2 said:

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Carlisle has very different boundaries compared with 1983. Barrow and Copeland could be vulnerable on account of nuclear power issues - though not Workington.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.

Cumbria is expected to be bad for Lab as 6 seats reduce to 5

Barrow - will gain some rural territory and likely flip to Con
South Lakeland - gains some rural territory but is still safe enough
Whitehaven and Workington - combine into one very safe Labour seat
Carlisle - gains some rural territory and becomes safer for Con
Penrith - loses the area around Carlisle and gains territory towards Aspatria. Still very safe Con

So 3L, 2C, 1LD could become 3C, 1L, 1 LD

You are making the assumption that the Boundary Commission proposals eventually receive Parliamentary approval in Autumn 2018. I believe that to be premature.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Car packed with gas cylinders found near Notre Dame in Paris

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/07/car-packed-with-gas-cylinders-found-near-notre-dame-in-paris

Day release from the nut house?

It'll be David, 23 a french national.

Sunil_Prasannan

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the effective date of Brexit, the David Allen Green tweets which were posted on the last thread were interesting, but I don't think they should be taken too literally. For political reasons, Article 50 and therefore Brexit are going to have to come into formal effect reasonably quickly; that doesn't necessarily mean that our contributions to the EU budget (and payments from the EU budget to UK programmes) will stop overnight. It's much more likely that there will be a transitional agreement under which both will continue to some extent after we've formally left the EU. So the 2020 EU budget date is not a big issue, I think.

I still think early 2017 for A50, we LEAVE early 2019.

Sounds about right - I hope!

YBarddCwsc

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Carlisle has very different boundaries compared with 1983. Barrow and Copeland could be vulnerable on account of nuclear power issues - though not Workington.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.

There is no real point in discussing the Welsh seats until we see the boundary review.

It is curious, though, that NE Wales was indeed rather poor for Labour in GE 2015 (as VoC was lost and the other 4 had much reduced majorities), but across the border in demographically similar English seats, Labour achieved some of its best results (retaking Chester and Wirral West).

I'd be interested to understand why this was.

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

What better proof do you want that grammar schools don't work?

ttps://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/773520581056720896

Are they not all earning 3x the average wage? – What criteria are you setting?

John_M

OK, Corbyn knows he's won. His incoherent comments (and lack of grasp) about the SIngle Market prove it.

GIN1138

JosiasJessop said:

Man punches five-day old baby:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-37294307

Hard to believe something like that could happen...

GIN1138

Sunil_Prasannan said:

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the effective date of Brexit, the David Allen Green tweets which were posted on the last thread were interesting, but I don't think they should be taken too literally. For political reasons, Article 50 and therefore Brexit are going to have to come into formal effect reasonably quickly; that doesn't necessarily mean that our contributions to the EU budget (and payments from the EU budget to UK programmes) will stop overnight. It's much more likely that there will be a transitional agreement under which both will continue to some extent after we've formally left the EU. So the 2020 EU budget date is not a big issue, I think.

I still think early 2017 for A50, we LEAVE early 2019.

Sounds about right - I hope!

If things get delayed beyond Spring 2017 The Sunil will have to take further action.

Richard_Nabavi

GIN1138 said:

I still think early 2017 for A50, we LEAVE early 2019.

Yes, I think that's the most likely scenario, in formal terms. Untangling the reality will take a lot longer.

YellowSubmarine

GarethoftheVale2 said:

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Carlisle has very different boundaries compared with 1983. Barrow and Copeland could be vulnerable on account of nuclear power issues - though not Workington.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.

Cumbria is expected to be bad for Lab as 6 seats reduce to 5

Barrow - will gain some rural territory and likely flip to Con
South Lakeland - gains some rural territory but is still safe enough
Whitehaven and Workington - combine into one very safe Labour seat
Carlisle - gains some rural territory and becomes safer for Con
Penrith - loses the area around Carlisle and gains territory towards Aspatria. Still very safe Con

So 3L, 2C, 1LD could become 3C, 1L, 1 LD

Whitehaven and Workington would be an interesting selection battle. The old duffer MP for Workington ' retired ' at the last election. So you'd have two equally local, youngish incumbent MP's going for the one successor seat.

justin124

YBarddCwsc said:

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

There are at least three constituency clusters where Labour could lose seats at the next election: one is the Potteries where they hold 4 seats with declining majorities, another is north-east Wales where the same is true, and a third is Cumbria with three seats.

Potteries: Stoke Central, Stoke North, Stoke South, Newcastle-under-Lyme. They've already lost adjacent Crewe&Nantwich which they held in 1983.
NE Wales: Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn. They've already lost Vale of Clwyd.
Cumbria: Barrow&Furness, Copeland, Workington. They've already lost Carlisle which they held in 1983.

Carlisle has very different boundaries compared with 1983. Barrow and Copeland could be vulnerable on account of nuclear power issues - though not Workington.
The NE Wales seats listed were comfotably Labour in the May Assembly elections and I believe Vale of Clwyd was retained too.

There is no real point in discussing the Welsh seats until we see the boundary review.

It is curious, though, that NE Wales was indeed rather poor for Labour in GE 2015 (as VoC was lost and the other 4 had much reduced majorities), but across the border in demographically similar English seats, Labour achieved some of its best results (retaking Chester and Wirral West).

I'd be interested to understand why this was.

In Wales UKIP support was disproportionately at Labour's expense. I have been told by both Labour and LibDem contacts that UKIP cost Labour the Vale of Clwyd.