The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It's all rather Pasok in terms of governing to polling zeroes.
May's approval will come down significantly in coming months, almost certainly.
Whatever stance she adopts on leaving the EU will annoy some people. In addition, that annoyance, within her party, will cause some discord, and that discord will also reduce her popularity.
The key point here is, as I've said before, we can have preliminary discussions with other countries, but no real detailed work can be done until the nature of the UK/EU deal is clear.
I see two of our most respected correspondents have this afternoon touted Dan Jarvis as a Labour leader in the early twenties, and one that would be successful in reviving his party's fortunes. What I don't understand is why they should think that. To be sure he seems a nice chap, understands leadership and has a very good back-story, but what are his politics? Where is the evidence for political acumen, the ability to formulate and deliver policies that non-labour people find attractive. I think he gave a speech a couple of months back that was reported in the papers but other than that he has been invisible.
He reminds me of Rory Stewart another new politician with a good back-story and on whom such high hopes were once pinned. Stewart seems to have sunk without trace too.
A good story to tell about your past and a eing a blank sheet of paper on which everyone can project their own wishes is not sufficient.
I'd go further. This obsession with back stories is positively harmful. It is another example of the nonsense that is identity politics. A person's background is a part of what they are but by no means the major part. What is of much more importance is what they believe, what they say and what they do. And that will be influenced by many things.
Having a particular background does not mean that you are automatically good at empathizing with or understanding or communicating with others of a similar background. Authenticity, a refusal to patronize people, really listening to them, huge dollops of emotional intelligence, curiosity and imagination are more important.
We need to see people for what they are and for what they can be. We need to see past the outside cover. We need to stop making assumptions based on superficial characteristics and really look at people. If we don't, we risk missing good people and we are simply making lazy assumptions just as our forefathers did, even if the targets and assumptions are different.
The problem with grammars is not the grammars themselves, but the secondary moderns we end up with around them.
And - as a country - we have a bigger problem with the educational standards of the next 75% than the top 25%.
Quite so, Mr. Robert. I am a grammar school boy off a Wandsworth council estate and I have no doubt that it provided an excellent education for me and my schoolmates, who mostly likewise came off the estates (in Wandsworth, Battersea, Streatham and Clapham). An education we could not have found, at that time, in the secondary moderns. An education that gave us a leg up in life and did enable us to compete on equal terms with public school boys.
However, that was then. The world has turned several times since and the needs of the top 10% (and I think that is what we are talking about rather than the 25% you mention) is not or at least should not be the priority for HMG.
For a start there is very good evidence that any in any school in which there is a culture of discipline, hard work and high expectations and streaming then the top 10% are going to just fine and still get their A* results. In fact the next 50% down will do pretty OK too. It is what happens after that where the problem really lies.
I am not adverse to the reintroduction of grammar schools per se but I am worried that TM is tackling a problem from the wrong end.
If I was PM and wanted to do something about education for the long term good of the country I would start at the pre-school years (from my wife's work at the local infants school I know that there are such vast gaps at the age of 5 that the children who aren't socialised when they start never catch up) and I would want to work on vocational schooling from about the age of 13 for those who seem to show no academic bent.
Of course none of my ideas are new. They were first noted in the UK in a Parliamentary Commission in 1874, have been implemented in Germany and elsewhere for more than a century and were, mostly but not quite incorporated, in the Education Act of 1944 (which was never in fact fully and properly implemented).
So the problem we have today seems identical to the one we had in 1874, public education policy is being dragged in two directions. The long term needs of the country and the wishes of the educational establishment and then further complicated by the needs of the Conservative Party to keep the middle classes on side. In short I think TM is picking the wrong fight for the wrong reason.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It's all rather Pasok in terms of governing to polling zeroes.
I see two of our most respected correspondents have this afternoon touted Dan Jarvis as a Labour leader in the early twenties, and one that would be successful in reviving his party's fortunes. What I don't understand is why they should think that. To be sure he seems a nice chap, understands leadership and has a very good back-story, but what are his politics? Where is the evidence for political acumen, the ability to formulate and deliver policies that non-labour people find attractive. I think he gave a speech a couple of months back that was reported in the papers but other than that he has been invisible.
He reminds me of Rory Stewart another new politician with a good back-story and on whom such high hopes were once pinned. Stewart seems to have sunk without trace too.
A good story to tell about your past and a eing a blank sheet of paper on which everyone can project their own wishes is not sufficient.
If you are referring to me, what I said was that we can expect him to become a lot more visible over the coming months. And that is precisely to deal with the issues you raise. That said, the bar is currently so low in British politics that you can probably go a hell of a long way on a back story and actually do as good a job as most of those who do hold positions of power.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It's all rather Pasok in terms of governing to polling zeroes.
The problem with grammars is not the grammars themselves, but the secondary moderns we end up with around them.
And - as a country - we have a bigger problem with the educational standards of the next 75% than the top 25%.
Quite so, Mr. Robert. I am an grammar school boy off a Wandsworth council estate and I have no doubt that it provided an excellent education for me and my schoolmates, who mostly likewise came off the estates (in Wandsworth, Battersea, Streatham and Clapham). An education we could not have found, at that time, in the secondary moderns. An education that gave us a leg up in life and did enable us to compete on equal terms with public school boys.
However, that was then. The world has turned several times since and the needs of the top 10% (and I think that is what we are talking about rather than the 25% you mention) is not or at least should not be the priority for HMG.
...
If I was PM and wanted to do something about education for the long term good of the country I would start at the pre-school years (from my wife's work at the local infants school I know that there are such vast gaps at the age of 5 that the children who aren't socialised when they start never catch up) and I would want to work on vocational schooling from about the age of 13 for those who seem to show no academic bent.
...
So the problem we have today seems identical to the one we had in 1874, public education policy is being dragged in two directions. The long term needs of the country and the wishes of the educational establishment and then further complicated by the needs of the Conservative Party to keep the middle classes on side. In short I think TM is picking the wrong fight for the wrong reason.
In defence of secondary moderns: my local authority (Trafford) has some very good secondary moderns. Allowing for the fact that they are dealing with only the bottom 80% of pupils, they do rather better than the comprehensives in socio-economically similar Stockport (and obviously miles better than comprehensives in the other socio-economically less fortunate Greater Manchester authorities). I've always thought that grammar schools in Trafford and high-performing secondary-moderns are two related outcomes of the local authority placing a higher value on educational outcomes than some other local authorities (there being other priorities local authorities can set for schools).
I accept that in the heyday of grammar schools it was far too often the case that secondary moderns were under-resourced and uncared-for. But this needn't be the case.
The key point here is, as I've said before, we can have preliminary discussions with other countries, but no real detailed work can be done until the nature of the UK/EU deal is clear.
If I were the May government I would push hard on getting TTIP in place. Because:
a) It is similar to what we are likely to get in the BrexiDeal. b) Gets the Americans on board c) It's a multilateral deal that is a backstop for when we leave our main one. d) Something that Liam Fox* can get on with while he waits for some FTA activity.
* Fox isn't fit for purpose and really should be removed. His post is too critical to give to a deadweight. David Davis I would cut some slack for and also OK to keep Johnson in an FO sinecure provided he pulls his weight on the Brexit PR.
The problem with grammars is not the grammars themselves, but the secondary moderns we end up with around them.
And - as a country - we have a bigger problem with the educational standards of the next 75% than the top 25%.
Quite so, Mr. Robert. I am a grammar school boy off a Wandsworth council estate and I have no doubt that it provided an excellent education for me and my schoolmates, who mostly likewise came off the estates (in Wandsworth, Battersea, Streatham and Clapham). An education we could not have found, at that time, in the secondary moderns. An education that gave us a leg up in life and did enable us to compete on equal terms with public school boys.
However, that was then. The world has turned several times since and the needs of the top 10% (and I think that is what we are talking about rather than the 25% you mention) is not or at least should not be the priority for HMG.
For a start there is very good evidence that any in any school in which there is a culture of discipline, hard work and high expectations and streaming then the top 10% are going to just fine and still get their A* results. In fact the next 50% down will do pretty OK too. It is what happens after that where the problem really lies.
I am not adverse to the reintroduction of grammar schools per se but I am worried that TM is tackling a problem from the wrong end.
If I was PM and wanted to do something about education for the long term good of the country I would start at the pre-school years (from my wife's work at the local infants school I know that there are such vast gaps at the age of 5 that the children who aren't socialised when they start never catch up) and I would want to work on vocational schooling from about the age of 13 for those who seem to show no academic bent.
Of course none of my ideas are new. They were first noted in the UK in a Parliamentary Commission in 1874, have been implemented in Germany and elsewhere for more than a century and were, mostly but not quite incorporated, in the Education Act of 1944 (which was never in fact fully and properly implemented).
So the problem we have today seems identical to the one we had in 1874, public education policy is being dragged in two directions. The long term needs of the country and the wishes of the educational establishment and then further complicated by the needs of the Conservative Party to keep the middle classes on side. In short I think TM is picking the wrong fight for the wrong reason.
It may be of interest to those who advocate yet more fine tuning with education that my grandson, starting his second year as a primary school teacher, has, on returning to work for the autumn term, been faced with significant changes of both curriculum and expectation of outcomes.
I see two of our most respected correspondents have this afternoon touted Dan Jarvis as a Labour leader in the early twenties, and one that would be successful in reviving his party's fortunes. What I don't understand is why they should think that. To be sure he seems a nice chap, understands leadership and has a very good back-story, but what are his politics? Where is the evidence for political acumen, the ability to formulate and deliver policies that non-labour people find attractive. I think he gave a speech a couple of months back that was reported in the papers but other than that he has been invisible.
He reminds me of Rory Stewart another new politician with a good back-story and on whom such high hopes were once pinned. Stewart seems to have sunk without trace too.
A good story to tell about your past and a eing a blank sheet of paper on which everyone can project their own wishes is not sufficient.
I'd go further. This obsession with back stories is positively harmful. It is another example of the nonsense that is identity politics. A person's background is a part of what they are but by no means the major part. What is of much more importance is what they believe, what they say and what they do. And that will be influenced by many things.
Having a particular background does not mean that you are automatically good at empathizing with or understanding or communicating with others of a similar background. Authenticity, a refusal to patronize people, really listening to them, huge dollops of emotional intelligence, curiosity and imagination are more important.
We need to see people for what they are and for what they can be. We need to see past the outside cover. We need to stop making assumptions based on superficial characteristics and really look at people. If we don't, we risk missing good people and we are simply making lazy assumptions just as our forefathers did, even if the targets and assumptions are different.
BoE sticking neck out on the economy.... Expecting further rate cut! Odd that they are so pessimistic.
"BoE's Cunliffe sees another rate cut if economy evolves as forecast Away from the Treasury Select Committee, in his annual report, here's BoE deputy governor Jon Cunliffee said: Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said on Wednesday he expects to vote for another interest rate cut this year if the economy evolves as the central bank expects. "If the economy evolves as set out in the August forecast, I would expect to vote for another cut in Bank Rate this year as highlighted in the Minutes of the MPC's August meeting," Cunliffe said in a statement to lawmakers."
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
I don't know why you are "bewildered". The EU Referendum campaign was mostly the Conservative Party talking to or at itself and the subsequent fall of Cameron and rise of May is largely an internal Conservative matter.
At the moment, everyone is projecting their hopes onto May but as she consistently and persistently fails to meet them, people will start to look elsewhere, The next GE is still the thick end of four years away - that's an eternity.
The trick for Tim Farron will be to be there when the first real Government crisis hits (as it will do) and IF the Conservatives get into their usual internal feuding, to provide the discontented and disillusioned Conservatives with an option. There are small and encouraging signs of activity in some areas (like grassland recovering after a fire) but it's very early days.
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
You really need to look at the tables. They compare it to an unpublished poll conducted a week ago.
It may be of interest to those who advocate yet more fine tuning with education that my grandson, starting his second year as a primary school teacher, has, on returning to work for the autumn term, been faced with significant changes of both curriculum and expectation of outcomes.
Not quite sure why your grandson has found this a shock, the changes have been well publicised for some time. Even on here our Welsh Doctor, who I am beginning to suspect is actually a Time Lord (it's the organ playing and the singing as well as the history knowledge that provides the clues), has been talking about them for months.
With all respect Mr. Cole I suspect your grandson has been let down by his school.
Are they not all earning 3x the average wage? – What criteria are you setting?
Competence, lack thereof.
People who attend Grammar schools are clearly overrated and have an unfair advantage in the job market over those who attended Secondary moderns and comprehensives.
We can close the grammar schools at the same time as all fee paying schools are closed. Deal?
Or, we could just improve the Secondary moderns and Comprehensives. Just a thought...
That's fine as well, what bothers me is public school educated twats who want to pull the ladder up because they can't stand the competition.
It's not about pulling the ladder, it is all about damaging those children outside of the grammar school system.
Look at what Sir Michael Wilshaw has said just this week. (I know he's an expert, but just look at the stats)
Look at the evidence Michael Gove saw, he was right, we need to improve the standards across all schools, not just a few.
Mrs Thatcher as Education Secretary abolished/merged more grammars than anyone else, and never reintroduced any as she saw the evidence.
As I said, we can close the grammars when we close the fee paying schools. I'm happy with that stalemate.
Not close them, just make sure we don't open any more grammar schools.
Grammar schools are free at the point of use, so working class kids can attend them.
If they can manage to get in without the £1,000s that rich parents shell out on tuition these days to get their offspring through the 11-plus, that is. Edit: And without having attended one of the outstanding primary schools that push up the nearby house prices.
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
It is the back end of the Silly Season, it is still four years from an election and these figures are from YouGov. Not worth even considering them.
May's approval will come down significantly in coming months, almost certainly.
Whatever stance she adopts on leaving the EU will annoy some people. In addition, that annoyance, within her party, will cause some discord, and that discord will also reduce her popularity.
She could abandon Brexit tomorrow, strip naked, pop a jaunty beret on her head, catch a helicopter to the Elysee to beg for forgiveness from Hollande while drinking champagne and smoking Gauloises – and still win the general election in 2020 by about 100 seats.
Such is the utter ineptitude of Corbyn and his useless acolytes.
Are they not all earning 3x the average wage? – What criteria are you setting?
Competence, lack thereof.
People who attend Grammar schools are clearly overrated and have an unfair advantage in the job market over those who attended Secondary moderns and comprehensives.
We can close the grammar schools at the same time as all fee paying schools are closed. Deal?
Or, we could just improve the Secondary moderns and Comprehensives. Just a thought...
That's fine as well, what bothers me is public school educated twats who want to pull the ladder up because they can't stand the competition.
It's not about pulling the ladder, it is all about damaging those children outside of the grammar school system.
Look at what Sir Michael Wilshaw has said just this week. (I know he's an expert, but just look at the stats)
Look at the evidence Michael Gove saw, he was right, we need to improve the standards across all schools, not just a few.
Mrs Thatcher as Education Secretary abolished/merged more grammars than anyone else, and never reintroduced any as she saw the evidence.
As I said, we can close the grammars when we close the fee paying schools. I'm happy with that stalemate.
Not close them, just make sure we don't open any more grammar schools.
Grammar schools are free at the point of use, so working class kids can attend them.
If they can manage to get in without the £1,000s that rich parents shell out on tuition these days to get their offspring through the 11-plus, that is.
Well, I managed to pass the 11-plus without tuition.
Some more state polls out on 538 - one has Trump +1 on Florida 4-way and Clinton might be slightly worried about Rhode Island and New Jersey, but pleased with New Hampshire and Iowa.
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
You really need to look at the tables. They compare it to an unpublished poll conducted a week ago.
Are they not all earning 3x the average wage? – What criteria are you setting?
Competence, lack thereof.
People who attend Grammar schools are clearly overrated and have an unfair advantage in the job market over those who attended Secondary moderns and comprehensives.
We can close the grammar schools at the same time as all fee paying schools are closed. Deal?
Or, we could just improve the Secondary moderns and Comprehensives. Just a thought...
That's fine as well, what bothers me is public school educated twats who want to pull the ladder up because they can't stand the competition.
It's not about pulling the ladder, it is all about damaging those children outside of the grammar school system.
Look at what Sir Michael Wilshaw has said just this week. (I know he's an expert, but just look at the stats)
Look at the evidence Michael Gove saw, he was right, we need to improve the standards across all schools, not just a few.
Mrs Thatcher as Education Secretary abolished/merged more grammars than anyone else, and never reintroduced any as she saw the evidence.
As I said, we can close the grammars when we close the fee paying schools. I'm happy with that stalemate.
Not close them, just make sure we don't open any more grammar schools.
Grammar schools are free at the point of use, so working class kids can attend them.
If they can manage to get in without the £1,000s that rich parents shell out on tuition these days to get their offspring through the 11-plus, that is.
Well, I managed to pass the 11-plus without tuition.
Then you probably noticed that the thickos at your school tended to be the ones with rich parents.
May's approval will come down significantly in coming months, almost certainly.
Whatever stance she adopts on leaving the EU will annoy some people. In addition, that annoyance, within her party, will cause some discord, and that discord will also reduce her popularity.
She could abandon Brexit tomorrow, strip naked,
With apologies to Austin Powers:
"Theresa May naked on a cold day! Theresa May naked on a cold day!"
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It was always going to be a slow and bumpy road back. Local byelections have shown an organisation that is a little subterranean but not dead.
It will take a little while for the self destruction of Labour and the war between the Bitter Enders and the Remainers in the Tory party to work its way through the system.
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
You really need to look at the tables. They compare it to an unpublished poll conducted a week ago.
Why unpublished, out of interest?
You'd have to ask YouGov.
My own guess, pollsters don't like bank holiday polling.
In defence of secondary moderns: my local authority (Trafford) has some very good secondary moderns. Allowing for the fact that they are dealing with only the bottom 80% of pupils, they do rather better than the comprehensives in socio-economically similar Stockport (and obviously miles better than comprehensives in the other socio-economically less fortunate Greater Manchester authorities). I've always thought that grammar schools in Trafford and high-performing secondary-moderns are two related outcomes of the local authority placing a higher value on educational outcomes than some other local authorities (there being other priorities local authorities can set for schools).
I accept that in the heyday of grammar schools it was far too often the case that secondary moderns were under-resourced and uncared-for. But this needn't be the case.
I also accept that this is just one example!
All good points, Mr. Cookie. As I said up thread the keys to success for any school, Grammar, Comprehensive, Technical or Secondary modern, would seem to be a culture of discipline, hard work and high expectations and streaming. Any school that has those will I think produce the best outcome possible for its pupils. Just a shame that the educational establishment do not see it that way, despite them having been proved wrong over so many decades.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
To be fair to Farron, the Lib Dems have plummeted in media exposure since the election. Gone are the days when a LD politician would be routinely invited into Question Time et al. They're not even guaranteed a question in PMQs anymore.
In addition their idiotic failure to keep their promise on tuition fees has likely given thousand of would-be supporters a lifelong reason not to vote for them. Plus other lefties who view the very act of going into coalition with the Tories as a betrayal.
Going forward as the party of Remain is probably a sensible strategy, especially as the contradictions and downsides of Brexit become apparent. But 20 seats at the next GE is probably the top end of what they can achieve.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It was always going to be a slow and bumpy road back. Local byelections have shown an organisation that is a little subterranean but not dead.
It will take a little while for the self destruction of Labour and the war between the Bitter Enders and the Remainers in the Tory party to work its way through the system.
I really don't see that. We have 2 bald men fighting over a comb at the head of the Labour party. They agree on policy (except maybe defence, one wants some, the other not so bothered) but in a way that leaves a very significant part of the centre left homeless. Why is Farron not making a play for these people? Why is he not trying to get some Commissions or other nonsense working where a broad range of centre left people can agonise about some problem? It is a missed opportunity for the Lib Dems and it may never come again.
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
You really need to look at the tables. They compare it to an unpublished poll conducted a week ago.
A bit strange that poll was never published! I did query the non- appearance of a poll last week as it happens. The poll of !6/17 August did show a Con lead of 8% - which increased to 11% the following week. You now appear to be implying that the lead the fell back to 8% a week ago but has now again at 11%..
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It was always going to be a slow and bumpy road back. Local byelections have shown an organisation that is a little subterranean but not dead.
It will take a little while for the self destruction of Labour and the war between the Bitter Enders and the Remainers in the Tory party to work its way through the system.
I really don't see that. We have 2 bald men fighting over a comb at the head of the Labour party. They agree on policy (except maybe defence, one wants some, the other not so bothered) but in a way that leaves a very significant part of the centre left homeless. Why is Farron not making a play for these people? Why is he not trying to get some Commissions or other nonsense working where a broad range of centre left people can agonise about some problem? It is a missed opportunity for the Lib Dems and it may never come again.
I voted Lamb, but Farron does have a good campaigning record, very much pavement politics. National elections are probably 4 years away, and the plan to up the ground game is a viable one.
Don't read too much into this YouGov poll until Justin gives his analysis on it.
The only comment I would make is that the changes in party % shares given do not match the data from the previous YouGov poll conducted August 22nd /23rd which came up with _ Con 40% Lab 29% Ukip 13% LD 8% SNP 6% Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
You really need to look at the tables. They compare it to an unpublished poll conducted a week ago.
Why unpublished, out of interest?
You'd have to ask YouGov.
My own guess, pollsters don't like bank holiday polling.
The Lib Dems complete failure to profit from the chaos, civil war and rank incompetence in Labour is really quite bewildering. Almost as strange as their failure to profit from the significant part of the Tory party that voted remain and must be disappointed about how things are going.
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
It was always going to be a slow and bumpy road back. Local byelections have shown an organisation that is a little subterranean but not dead.
It will take a little while for the self destruction of Labour and the war between the Bitter Enders and the Remainers in the Tory party to work its way through the system.
I really don't see that. We have 2 bald men fighting over a comb at the head of the Labour party. They agree on policy (except maybe defence, one wants some, the other not so bothered) but in a way that leaves a very significant part of the centre left homeless. Why is Farron not making a play for these people? Why is he not trying to get some Commissions or other nonsense working where a broad range of centre left people can agonise about some problem? It is a missed opportunity for the Lib Dems and it may never come again.
Perhaps the Lib Dems are wary about courting disaffected Labour voters too avidly for fear of being seen as a Labour-Lite party. That could scupper any future plans to attract richer pickings from the Tory left in the likely event of ructions over Brexit.
Are they not all earning 3x the average wage? – What criteria are you setting?
Competence, lack thereof.
People who attend Grammar schools are clearly overrated and have an unfair advantage in the job market over those who attended Secondary moderns and comprehensives.
We can close the grammar schools at the same time as all fee paying schools are closed. Deal?
Or, we could just improve the Secondary moderns and Comprehensives. Just a thought...
That's fine as well, what bothers me is public school educated twats who want to pull the ladder up because they can't stand the competition.
It's not about pulling the ladder, it is all about damaging those children outside of the grammar school system.
Look at what Sir Michael Wilshaw has said just this week. (I know he's an expert, but just look at the stats)
Look at the evidence Michael Gove saw, he was right, we need to improve the standards across all schools, not just a few.
Mrs Thatcher as Education Secretary abolished/merged more grammars than anyone else, and never reintroduced any as she saw the evidence.
As I said, we can close the grammars when we close the fee paying schools. I'm happy with that stalemate.
Not close them, just make sure we don't open any more grammar schools.
Grammar schools are free at the point of use, so working class kids can attend them.
If they can manage to get in without the £1,000s that rich parents shell out on tuition these days to get their offspring through the 11-plus, that is.
Well, I managed to pass the 11-plus without tuition.
Then you probably noticed that the thickos at your school tended to be the ones with rich parents.
Quite an eclectic bunch in my class at Ilford County (I left in 1994). Out of 30 of us, there were 8 Jews, 3 Hindu Asians, 2 Muslim Asians, 2 Christian Asians, 1 Sikh Asian, and 2 mixed-race (1 of whom was replaced by a certain Alex Hilton in 1990).
Obama seems intent on making it as hard as possible for Clinton to win. Trump will have an absolute field day with this.
I think the plan is to goad Trump into pushing too far. It's certainly a provocative move at this point.
Trump's people are going to be going over his judgements with a fine tooth comb at the moment and finding any part of any judgement where he has supported or even praised Islamic law. If he has Trump will force the issue and win a lot of support.
Jezza has been for LEAVE for 40 years! Why the surprise?
What he is and what people think he is, evidence to the contrary, are two separate things.
Granted, some Corbynites would claim I, as a non-Corbynite are perceiving what he is incorrectly, but I think there's ample evidence to back up that a lot of people like his attitude and general positions, and are ignoring what the implications of all his positions actually are.
One incidental fact from that analysis is that the UK has the seen the greatest growth in income inequality of all the 27 OECD countries surveyed.
Not surprising, the nation is turning into two societies, haves and have nots. Property ownership is one of the major issues that needs to be addressed. We can't have a situation where a few hundred thousand private landlords own 4-5m rental properties and 3-4m people are unable to buy.
People who attend Grammar schools are clearly overrated and have an unfair advantage in the job market over those who attended Secondary moderns and comprehensives.
We can close the grammar schools at the same time as all fee paying schools are closed. Deal?
Or, we could just improve the Secondary moderns and Comprehensives. Just a thought...
That's fine as well, what bothers me is public school educated twats who want to pull the ladder up because they can't stand the competition.
It's not about pulling the ladder, it is all about damaging those children outside of the grammar school system.
Look at what Sir Michael Wilshaw has said just this week. (I know he's an expert, but just look at the stats)
Look at the evidence Michael Gove saw, he was right, we need to improve the standards across all schools, not just a few.
Mrs Thatcher as Education Secretary abolished/merged more grammars than anyone else, and never reintroduced any as she saw the evidence.
As I said, we can close the grammars when we close the fee paying schools. I'm happy with that stalemate.
Not close them, just make sure we don't open any more grammar schools.
Grammar schools are free at the point of use, so working class kids can attend them.
If they can manage to get in without the £1,000s that rich parents shell out on tuition these days to get their offspring through the 11-plus, that is.
Well, I managed to pass the 11-plus without tuition.
Then you probably noticed that the thickos at your school tended to be the ones with rich parents.
Quite an eclectic bunch in my class at Ilford County (I left in 1994). Out of 30 of us, there were 8 Jews, 3 Hindu Asians, 2 Muslim Asians, 2 Christian Asians, 1 Sikh Asian, and 2 mixed-race (1 of whom was replaced by a certain Alex Hilton in 1990).
Tutoring was virtually unheard of when I attended grammar school in the early 80s, but times have changed since then. My son started at the same school last year and, although, I didn't hire an external tutor for him, I did spend a lot of time working through practise papers with him myself. He was rather the exception; almost all of his classmates had substantial paid tuition before taking the 11-plus.
Tutoring was virtually unheard of when I attended grammar school in the early 80s, but times have changed since then. My son started at the same school last year and, although, I didn't hire an external tutor for him, I did spend a lot of time working through practise papers with him myself. He was rather the exception; almost all of his classmates had substantial tuition before taking the 11-plus.
Time to fix the exams so they are unable to be gamed.
The Lib Dems are quickly becoming a Eurofanatic party.
In their defence, they were they only ones unequivocally supported the EU all the way through. The Tories and to a slightly lesser extent Labour have long presented as not really liking it but supporting it.
Jezza has been for LEAVE for 40 years! Why the surprise?
What he is and what people think he is, evidence to the contrary, are two separate things.
Granted, some Corbynites would claim I, as a non-Corbynite are perceiving what he is incorrectly, but I think there's ample evidence to back up that a lot of people like his attitude and general positions, and are ignoring what the implications of all his positions actually are.
One incidental fact from that analysis is that the UK has the seen the greatest growth in income inequality of all the 27 OECD countries surveyed.
Not surprising, the nation is turning into two societies, haves and have nots. Property ownership is one of the major issues that needs to be addressed. We can't have a situation where a few hundred thousand private landlords own 4-5m rental properties and 3-4m people are unable to buy.
Osborne was doing some promising stuff in that area. Hopefully Hammond can continue, I have no doubt the likes of Phillip Davies will carry on as ever though.
Jezza has been for LEAVE for 40 years! Why the surprise?
Is Faisal still running around London in a state of complete and utter blind, hysterical panic like he did in the days after the referendum?
Yes, he's really wearing his heart on his sleeve. Thinking of updating the old Scotsman/grievance/ray-of-sunshine quip on that basis.
After the referendum I felt like emailing the Sky New Center and asking them to tell Faisial to have a sit down, take some deep breaths and have a cup of tea.
But then I just shrugged and went out into the sunshine...
The excellent Laura K was far more stoical about the whole thing.
Tutoring was virtually unheard of when I attended grammar school in the early 80s, but times have changed since then. My son started at the same school last year and, although, I didn't hire an external tutor for him, I did spend a lot of time working through practise papers with him myself. He was rather the exception; almost all of his classmates had substantial tuition before taking the 11-plus.
Time to fix the exams so they are unable to be gamed.
Don't you think they try to do that? It's a constant arms race between the examiners and the tutors! In the end, though, it's very difficult to come up with an exam that is immune to preparation and is able to identify innate intelligence even in kids who have been to awful primary schools and have barely seen a book at home.
We can close the grammar schools at the same time as all fee paying schools are closed. Deal?
Or, we could just improve the Secondary moderns and Comprehensives. Just a thought...
That's .
It's not about pulling the ladder, it is all about damaging those children outside of the grammar school system.
Look at what Sir Michael Wilshaw has said just this week. (I know he's an expert, but just look at the stats)
Look at the evidence Michael Gove saw, he was right, we need to improve the standards across all schools, not just a few.
Mrs Thatcher as Education Secretary abolished/merged more grammars than anyone else, and never reintroduced any as she saw the evidence.
As I said, we can close the grammars when we close the fee paying schools. I'm happy with that stalemate.
Not close them, just make sure we don't open any more grammar schools.
Grammar schools are free at the point of use, so working class kids can attend them.
If they can manage to get in without the £1,000s that rich parents shell out on tuition these days to get their offspring through the 11-plus, that is.
Well, I managed to pass the 11-plus without tuition.
Then you probably noticed that the thickos at your school tended to be the ones with rich parents.
Quite an eclectic bunch in my class at Ilford County (I left in 1994). Out of 30 of us, there were 8 Jews, 3 Hindu Asians, 2 Muslim Asians, 2 Christian Asians, 1 Sikh Asian, and 2 mixed-race (1 of whom was replaced by a certain Alex Hilton in 1990).
Tutoring was virtually unheard of when I attended grammar school in the early 80s, but times have changed since then. My son started at the same school last year and, although, I didn't hire an external tutor for him, I did spend a lot of time working through practise papers with him myself. He was rather the exception; almost all of his classmates had substantial paid tuition before taking the 11-plus.
Luckily at my primary, Newbury Park, throughout Junior level (7 years to 11 years) we had regular "Interval tests", weekly spelling and mental arithmetic tests, and in the run-up to 11-plus, practice verbal/non-verbal reasoning papers.
Comments
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21706439-stubborn-socialists-are-blocking-mariano-rajoy-forming-centre-right-government-spain-may-be
I just don't see things getting better for them than this. At the moment they are looking to be a House of Lords only party which believes in people being elected there. Tim Farron is just invisible. It was never going to be easy with 8 MPs but really, what is he doing?
As 2015 showed a weak showing by the Lib Dems significantly increases the number of safe Tory seats and does a lot to diminish the bias currently in the system in Labour's favour.
http://in.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-clearing-idINL8N1BJ1RR
Red Star OS
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 19 points among military, veteran voters: poll
euro denominated clearing will be mandated to be taken back to the euro zone
It isn't in the euro-zone at the moment...
Whatever stance she adopts on leaving the EU will annoy some people. In addition, that annoyance, within her party, will cause some discord, and that discord will also reduce her popularity.
The last captive specimen died 80 years ago today:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine
Also, a bit of realism on trade deals:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-analysis-idUKKCN11D1CH
The key point here is, as I've said before, we can have preliminary discussions with other countries, but no real detailed work can be done until the nature of the UK/EU deal is clear.
No. Someone just mixed up Farron and Fallon.
Having a particular background does not mean that you are automatically good at empathizing with or understanding or communicating with others of a similar background. Authenticity, a refusal to patronize people, really listening to them, huge dollops of emotional intelligence, curiosity and imagination are more important.
We need to see people for what they are and for what they can be. We need to see past the outside cover. We need to stop making assumptions based on superficial characteristics and really look at people. If we don't, we risk missing good people and we are simply making lazy assumptions just as our forefathers did, even if the targets and assumptions are different.
However, that was then. The world has turned several times since and the needs of the top 10% (and I think that is what we are talking about rather than the 25% you mention) is not or at least should not be the priority for HMG.
For a start there is very good evidence that any in any school in which there is a culture of discipline, hard work and high expectations and streaming then the top 10% are going to just fine and still get their A* results. In fact the next 50% down will do pretty OK too. It is what happens after that where the problem really lies.
I am not adverse to the reintroduction of grammar schools per se but I am worried that TM is tackling a problem from the wrong end.
If I was PM and wanted to do something about education for the long term good of the country I would start at the pre-school years (from my wife's work at the local infants school I know that there are such vast gaps at the age of 5 that the children who aren't socialised when they start never catch up) and I would want to work on vocational schooling from about the age of 13 for those who seem to show no academic bent.
Of course none of my ideas are new. They were first noted in the UK in a Parliamentary Commission in 1874, have been implemented in Germany and elsewhere for more than a century and were, mostly but not quite incorporated, in the Education Act of 1944 (which was never in fact fully and properly implemented).
So the problem we have today seems identical to the one we had in 1874, public education policy is being dragged in two directions. The long term needs of the country and the wishes of the educational establishment and then further complicated by the needs of the Conservative Party to keep the middle classes on side. In short I think TM is picking the wrong fight for the wrong reason.
I accept that in the heyday of grammar schools it was far too often the case that secondary moderns were under-resourced and uncared-for. But this needn't be the case.
I also accept that this is just one example!
Yougov
Westminster Voting intentions
by social grade
C2DE (ABC1)
CON 34% (43%)
LAB 29% (30%)
UKIP 20% (8%)
NATS 9% (6%)
LD 4% (9%)
Inverse of the LDs.
a) It is similar to what we are likely to get in the BrexiDeal.
b) Gets the Americans on board
c) It's a multilateral deal that is a backstop for when we leave our main one.
d) Something that Liam Fox* can get on with while he waits for some FTA activity.
* Fox isn't fit for purpose and really should be removed. His post is too critical to give to a deadweight. David Davis I would cut some slack for and also OK to keep Johnson in an FO sinecure provided he pulls his weight on the Brexit PR.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox
"BoE's Cunliffe sees another rate cut if economy evolves as forecast
Away from the Treasury Select Committee, in his annual report, here's BoE deputy governor Jon Cunliffee said:
Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said on Wednesday he expects to vote for another interest rate cut this year if the economy evolves as the central bank expects.
"If the economy evolves as set out in the August forecast, I would expect to vote for another cut in Bank Rate this year as highlighted in the Minutes of the MPC's August meeting," Cunliffe said in a statement to lawmakers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/07/pound-steadies-above-134-and-ftse-100-extends-losses-ahead-of-uk/
Con 40%
Lab 29%
Ukip 13%
LD 8%
SNP 6%
Grn 3%
Tory lead remains unchanged at 11% from two weeks ago.
Con 43% Lab 26%?
At the moment, everyone is projecting their hopes onto May but as she consistently and persistently fails to meet them, people will start to look elsewhere, The next GE is still the thick end of four years away - that's an eternity.
The trick for Tim Farron will be to be there when the first real Government crisis hits (as it will do) and IF the Conservatives get into their usual internal feuding, to provide the discontented and disillusioned Conservatives with an option. There are small and encouraging signs of activity in some areas (like grassland recovering after a fire) but it's very early days.
May - Times New Roman
Cameron - Helvetica
Corbyn - Wingdings
With all respect Mr. Cole I suspect your grandson has been let down by his school.
His Jeremy4PM team is fontastic this afternoon.
http://voxeu.org/article/economic-growth-stagnating-median-incomes-new-analysis
Hollande while drinking champagne and smoking Gauloises – and still win the general election in 2020 by about 100 seats.
Such is the utter ineptitude of Corbyn and his useless acolytes.
"Theresa May naked on a cold day! Theresa May naked on a cold day!"
It will take a little while for the self destruction of Labour and the war between the Bitter Enders and the Remainers in the Tory party to work its way through the system.
My own guess, pollsters don't like bank holiday polling.
In addition their idiotic failure to keep their promise on tuition fees has likely given thousand of would-be supporters a lifelong reason not to vote for them. Plus other lefties who view the very act of going into coalition with the Tories as a betrayal.
Going forward as the party of Remain is probably a sensible strategy, especially as the contradictions and downsides of Brexit become apparent. But 20 seats at the next GE is probably the top end of what they can achieve.
The poll of !6/17 August did show a Con lead of 8% - which increased to 11% the following week. You now appear to be implying that the lead the fell back to 8% a week ago but has now again at 11%..
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/773548067396186112
The "fair" track distance (For men) wheelchair (T54) vs 2 legged is 532 metres.
Obama seems intent on making it as hard as possible for Clinton to win. Trump will have an absolute field day with this.
Is Faisal still running around London in a state of complete and utter blind, hysterical panic like he did in the days after the referendum?
Granted, some Corbynites would claim I, as a non-Corbynite are perceiving what he is incorrectly, but I think there's ample evidence to back up that a lot of people like his attitude and general positions, and are ignoring what the implications of all his positions actually are.
I am just providing a link btw, not going all Crosby on you.
But then I just shrugged and went out into the sunshine...
The excellent Laura K was far more stoical about the whole thing.