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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer on What next if Corbyn sweeps the board?

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    wrt Apple, I think a bit of lateral thinking/channeling Aesop is required here.

    The EU should fine Ireland $13bn and then leave it up to them whether they ask Apple to reimburse them.


    Apple Statement:

    At its root, the Commission’s case is not about how much Apple pays in taxes. It is about which government collects the money

    http://reaction.life/?p=788?ts
    Then why are they asking for more?
    The Irish aren't asking for more......
    But the EU are?
    No, the EU are saying the Irish give Apple a 'sweetheart deal' which removed the vast majority of Apple profits from Irish tax - so its effectively illegal state aid, as it was not available to other companies.

    Interestingly:

    Since June 2013, the Commission has been investigating the tax ruling practices of Member States. It extended this information inquiry to all Member States in December 2014. In October 2015, the Commission concluded that Luxembourg and the Netherlands had granted selective tax advantages to Fiat and Starbucks, respectively. In January 2016, the Commission concluded that selective tax advantages granted by Belgium to least 35 multinationals, mainly from the EU, under its "excess profit" tax scheme are illegal under EU state aid rules. The Commission also has two ongoing in-depth investigations into concerns that tax rulings may give rise to state aid issues in Luxembourg, as regards Amazon and McDonald's.

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-2923_en.htm
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Winter is Coming on GOT and it's also coming to Britain.

    My forecast for the coming winter over the British Isle is that it will be the coldest winter since the winter of 1947/48. Be prepared for snowdrifts even in central London and even parts of the Thames may ice over.
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    jonny83 said:

    I'm expecting them to fall back in line and maybe try again in a year or two but unless the whole setup and rules of the party change I don't see how they can depose him until he decides to walk away himself in 2020 when Labour lose.

    They *can't* fall back in line. Half the shadow ministerial team will be people who publicly have no confidence in the man. They can't express positive views about him or his policies without looking like gratuitous hypocrites which means they can't be credible shadow ministers. Whether they are appointed as such or not.

    This is the point that Jezbollah either have failed to comprehend or are wilfully ignoring. They simply expect that the Radiance of Corbyn will be enough to convert all the doubters once the traitors in the party and the media stop misrepresenting Him. Its laughable.

    A lot of the criticisms of Corbyn have been heard, even if they are not going to see him deposed. But they have been heard. Whatever Nick writes here, he knows that Corbyn's past views and the people he hangs out with are toxic. He knows that wanting to scrap NATO is a vote loser. He knows that the train episode was a farce. He knows that innumerable soft left MPs who expressed no confidence in Corbyn are not closet Blairites. He knows that all those women in the shadow cabinet who have detailed how dysfunctional and discourteous Corbyn is were not lying. He knows that Corbyn is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him. And he knows that McDonnell, Milne and Co are hell-bent on reconfiguring Labour into a hard left movement in which Parliament plays a relatively small role. And just as Nick knows that, so do many other Corbyn supporters. That's what will do for Corbyn in the end: he cannot deliver unity, he cannot deliver leadership and he cannot deliver power. As many others have noted, there are not enough Trots in the UK to save him from the inevitable consequences of what follows from that.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    Patrick said:

    NPXMP: In politics, as in the rest of life, dramatic change comes a little less quickly and cleanly than one might expect.

    Yes - it was a very quiet summer politically.

    Lol.

    That said, despite the genuinely big stuff, it's still been more noise than light.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    BudG said:


    I agree, his failings were there for all to see. My point was that by attacking him so viciously in media briefings the manner of the orchestrated resignations and the vote of no confidence, it simply created sympathy for him and a ready made defence for falling poll ratings. If he had failed despite having his MP's showing support for their leader, the membership would have been more likely to remove him.

    In any other world, a vote of no confidence would have been enough to see off any leader. It is almost beyond comprehension that Corbyn survived that (and that Labour doesn't have an existing mechanism for such eventualities)
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711



    BudG: I agree. Passive, lukewarm cooperation in the first year would have been far more sensible from their viewpoint, ideally using the time to develop an interesting and coherent alternative, which with all due respect to Smith I don't think has really been done yet.

    The problem with that strategy and the reason why I feel that they did not go that route was the concern that despite their "Corbyn is unelectable" manta, they were afraid that it might not be true and that under his leadership, with their tepid support, Labout might actually put on a reasonable showing. Certainly they would be several points higher in the polls today if they were not presenting themselves as a totally disunited Party and as such they would not be written off by most, as they are currently being written off, for the 2020 election.

    As I have said before, it wasn't fear of failure under Corbyn that was the driving force behind the revolt, it was actually fear of success. If Corbyn actually succeeded in becoming the next PM, then the Party would have been yanked to the far left for the foreseeable future. It was a risk those on the right and centre were not prepared to take.


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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,501
    Mass deselections may also not take place because the hard left do not need them. They've survived this far without the approval of the PLP - why change? But for the purposes of their project, they do need rather more hard left MPs than they currently have - enough to secure nominations for Corbyn's successor, enough to fill a shadow cabinet perhaps. So while we may not see mass deselections, it wouldn't be altogether surprising to see a handful in constituencies where the hard left is strong. So if we are to look for deselections, it need not be where the current MP is necessarily an outspoken critic, but where the hard left have the best opportunity to put one of their own in place - even if the current MP tends to keep his head down.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    edited August 2016
    Salami tactics all the way from Corbyn. Slice by slice, increase control while welcoming alternative voices so long as they are all respect being part of the Labour family, until all the voices are saying the same thing and his faction have total control and people can be eased rather than forced out. He and his tactics are so popular in Labour it's a wonder Ed M survived to fight a GE.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    What nonsense. Only reading entrails gives you a clear picture of the future - it's messy, bloody and harder to manage than you thought it would be.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Off-topic:

    The Softbank offer for ARM Holdings was accepted yesterday by 95% of the shareholders (I assume in terms of capital).

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37219633

    I've got grave doubts over whether this deal is good for ARM or the UK tech industry, but it's certainly going to be good for my personal bank balance ...
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Cookie said:

    Mass deselections may also not take place because the hard left do not need them. They've survived this far without the approval of the PLP - why change? But for the purposes of their project, they do need rather more hard left MPs than they currently have - enough to secure nominations for Corbyn's successor, enough to fill a shadow cabinet perhaps. So while we may not see mass deselections, it wouldn't be altogether surprising to see a handful in constituencies where the hard left is strong. So if we are to look for deselections, it need not be where the current MP is necessarily an outspoken critic, but where the hard left have the best opportunity to put one of their own in place - even if the current MP tends to keep his head down.

    You could simply see a number of moderate MP's just walk away from politics at the next election and therefore creating those vacancies. If they don't want to kill the Labour party they love by splitting but can't stay because of their maniac leader then some may just take the easy option and just walk away.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    kle4 said:

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    What nonsense. Only reading entrails gives you a clear picture of the future - it's messy, bloody and harder to manage than you thought it would be.
    In fairness if it's a Siberian winter the entrails do freeze so it makes it a lot less messy.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    It was preordained!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    There's been a good berry crop this year - blackberries in particular are impressive.

    It would however be a little surprising if it was the coldest winter since 1947 as that of 1963 was colder and is one of only two occasions since 1814 that the Thames has frozen.

    The coldest I can remember is 2009/10, where temperatures in Gloucestershire were consistently below -8. My father says it was also very bad in 1981.
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    BudG said:



    BudG: I agree. Passive, lukewarm cooperation in the first year would have been far more sensible from their viewpoint, ideally using the time to develop an interesting and coherent alternative, which with all due respect to Smith I don't think has really been done yet.

    The problem with that strategy and the reason why I feel that they did not go that route was the concern that despite their "Corbyn is unelectable" manta, they were afraid that it might not be true and that under his leadership, with their tepid support, Labout might actually put on a reasonable showing. Certainly they would be several points higher in the polls today if they were not presenting themselves as a totally disunited Party and as such they would not be written off by most, as they are currently being written off, for the 2020 election.

    As I have said before, it wasn't fear of failure under Corbyn that was the driving force behind the revolt, it was actually fear of success. If Corbyn actually succeeded in becoming the next PM, then the Party would have been yanked to the far left for the foreseeable future. It was a risk those on the right and centre were not prepared to take.

    If the suggestion is - as I keep reading on Facebook - that the shadow ministerial team worked against Him from day 1 then its a claim without evidence.

    It seems clear from several of the resignees that having worked very hard to make their brief work they were not publicising the various problems befalling them. Its only after Benn was sacked at 2am that many of them started to question if it was worth continuing.

    Its an old adage about keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Benn wasn't a rival for the leadership. But in sacking him the floodgates opened. The "coup" I keep reading about was instigated by Corbyn...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Thank you comrade.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    TOPPING said:

    wrt Apple, I think a bit of lateral thinking/channeling Aesop is required here.

    The EU should fine Ireland $13bn and then leave it up to them whether they ask Apple to reimburse them.

    Except that would mean the $13bn ends up net in the EU's coffers when it should have been in Ireland's coffers. That would be nothing other than a dirty money grab.
    Ireland evidently didn't want the money. ;)

    Apple deserves to gets hurt by this, both financially and in PR terms. Sadly, I doubt they will be.
    I fail to see why Apple deserves to be hurt by following both the letter and spirit of the law, set by and according to the government of the nation they're based in.

    If the government of Ireland was siding against Apple you may have a point.
    The accusation is that they're not based in Ireland in any meaningful sense; they're based in cyberspace.

    A question for those who have looked into this more deeply: how secret was this deal? Was it common knowledge?
    More importantly, can I base my company in cyberspace too? I do crypto-currency stuff, it's all very cyber.
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    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Have you seen the recent polls?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited August 2016

    TOPPING said:

    wrt Apple, I think a bit of lateral thinking/channeling Aesop is required here.

    The EU should fine Ireland $13bn and then leave it up to them whether they ask Apple to reimburse them.

    Except that would mean the $13bn ends up net in the EU's coffers when it should have been in Ireland's coffers. That would be nothing other than a dirty money grab.
    Ireland evidently didn't want the money. ;)

    Apple deserves to gets hurt by this, both financially and in PR terms. Sadly, I doubt they will be.
    I fail to see why Apple deserves to be hurt by following both the letter and spirit of the law, set by and according to the government of the nation they're based in.

    If the government of Ireland was siding against Apple you may have a point.
    The accusation is that they're not based in Ireland in any meaningful sense; they're based in cyberspace.

    A question for those who have looked into this more deeply: how secret was this deal? Was it common knowledge?
    More importantly, can I base my company in cyberspace too? I do crypto-currency stuff, it's all very cyber.
    Part of the problem is that Apple is reluctant to repatriate its offshore earnings as they would then become liable for US tax.

    So the answer to your question is yes, you can base your company anywhere you like. If you have to buy food to eat, however, you will need a boring earth-domiciled company also.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    They said that in 1981 as well...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Have you seen the recent polls?
    Corbynism sweeping the nation? :D
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    There's been a good berry crop this year - blackberries in particular are impressive.

    It would however be a little surprising if it was the coldest winter since 1947 as that of 1963 was colder and is one of only two occasions since 1814 that the Thames has frozen.

    The coldest I can remember is 2009/10, where temperatures in Gloucestershire were consistently below -8. My father says it was also very bad in 1981.
    Mid and very late Dec 81 were utterly perishing though oddly Xmas itself was a short thaw period IIRC.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Are you looking at the entrails or the berries?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,405
    edited August 2016
    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured
    to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement.
    Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The
    Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers
    played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the
    advantage! It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee when the world
    trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations. Well, they will tremble again — at the
    sound of our progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    Comrades, our own Parliamentary Labour Party don't know our full potential! They will do
    everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will
    leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar
    nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their braying and
    tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the
    only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is
    warm, and so is the... comradeship.

    A great day, Comrades. We sail into history!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    edited August 2016
    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    While it is unlikely the Conservatives will get more popular than they currently are (with a honeymoon for PM and prior to any economic troubles and arguments over Brexit types), and thus fevered dreams or fears of Labour wipeout are improbable (even on a 14 pt deficit they are predicted to get near 200 seats), that is not the same as suggesting that the current Labour division and madness will not permanently wound them ahead of 2020 and lead to a situation worse than now, in parliamentary terms.

    That still seems more likely than not, as while one can find evidence to argue Corbyn and his prospects are not as bad as some thinks it is much harder to suggest he is improving significantly, as Labour requires, on the position from 2015 in the areas they require. It's a cliche, but even more massive majorities in Islington will not help them.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    @Sunil.. glorious.. you'll be awarded the order of lenin for that. :D

    (although I did prefer chortling and tittering :p )
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    welshowl said:

    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Are you looking at the entrails or the berries?
    Either the Momentum ostriches are burying their heads in the sand, or they can’t read polls.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    welshowl said:

    theakes said:

    Commonsense and reality are beginning to reign. In two years the Conservatives will be so unpopular all the nonsense being perpetrated at the moment about elections and wipe out of Labour will seem like some demented madness.

    Are you looking at the entrails or the berries?
    Either the Momentum ostriches are burying their heads in the sand, or they can’t read polls.
    Or both, of course.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Theakes IS Sion Simon and I claim my five pounds
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited August 2016
    Theakes overstates the case but it is more probable than possible that the Conservatives' divisions will resurface (and conceivably rancorously so) once the terms of Brexit become apparent and we may be talking about only months before the election. Add to that quagmire an economic downturn or recession (it really doesn't matter if it's Brexit induced) and you can easily and credibly picture a scenario where re-election is far from a forgone conclusion.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    JohnO said:

    Theakes overstates the case but it is more probable than possible that the Conservatives' divisions will resurface (and conceivably rancorously so) once the terms of Brexit become apparent and we're talking about only months before the election. Add to that quagmire an economic downturn or recession (it really doesn't matter if it's Brexit induced) and you can easily and credibly picture a scenario where re-election is far from a forgone conclusion.

    It is possible May could find it much harder than almost all think. It is harder to envisage a Corbyn led party taking full enough advantage of even the most beneficial circumstance however.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    JohnO said:

    Theakes overstates the case but it is more probable than possible that the Conservatives' divisions will resurface (and conceivably rancorously so) once the terms of Brexit become apparent and we may be talking about only months before the election. Add to that quagmire an economic downturn or recession (it really doesn't matter if it's Brexit induced) and you can easily and credibly picture a scenario where re-election is far from a forgone conclusion.

    I can easily picture a scenario where the Conservatives have a small, even a bare majority rather than the landslide their supporters dream of.

    But while Corbyn is leader there is absolutely no prospect of Labour getting close enough to put them from power. It would be 1992 not 1974.
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    RobD said:

    @Sunil.. glorious.. you'll be awarded the order of lenin for that. :D

    (although I did prefer chortling and tittering :p )

    Was it chortling? Oops :lol:
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited August 2016

    BudG said:



    BudG: I agree. Passive, lukewarm cooperation in the first year would have been far more sensible from their viewpoint, ideally using the time to develop an interesting and coherent alternative, which with all due respect to Smith I don't think has really been done yet.

    The problem with that strategy and the reason why I feel that they did not go that route was the concern that despite their "Corbyn is unelectable" manta, they were afraid that it might not be true and that under his leadership, with their tepid support, Labout might actually put on a reasonable showing. Certainly they would be several points higher in the polls today if they were not presenting themselves as a totally disunited Party and as such they would not be written off by most, as they are currently being written off, for the 2020 election.

    As I have said before, it wasn't fear of failure under Corbyn that was the driving force behind the revolt, it was actually fear of success. If Corbyn actually succeeded in becoming the next PM, then the Party would have been yanked to the far left for the foreseeable future. It was a risk those on the right and centre were not prepared to take.

    If the suggestion is - as I keep reading on Facebook - that the shadow ministerial team worked against Him from day 1 then its a claim without evidence.

    It seems clear from several of the resignees that having worked very hard to make their brief work they were not publicising the various problems befalling them. Its only after Benn was sacked at 2am that many of them started to question if it was worth continuing.

    Its an old adage about keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Benn wasn't a rival for the leadership. But in sacking him the floodgates opened. The "coup" I keep reading about was instigated by Corbyn...
    Posted in error and so deleted, sorry
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Its an old adage about keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Benn wasn't a rival for the leadership. But in sacking him the floodgates opened. The "coup" I keep reading about was instigated by Corbyn...

    Pretty smart of him, wasn't it? For all that his team is clearly a very incompetent organisation, they seem to have had little trouble in outwitting the PLP.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,501
    edited August 2016

    BudG said:



    BudG: I agree. Passive, lukewarm cooperation in the first year would have been far more sensible from their viewpoint, ideally using the time to develop an interesting and coherent alternative, which with all due respect to Smith I don't think has really been done yet.

    The problem with that strategy and the reason why I feel that they did not go that route was the concern that despite their "Corbyn is unelectable" manta, they were afraid that it might not be true and that under his leadership, with their tepid support, Labout might actually put on a reasonable showing. Certainly they would be several points higher in the polls today if they were not presenting themselves as a totally disunited Party and as such they would not be written off by most, as they are currently being written off, for the 2020 election.

    As I have said before, it wasn't fear of failure under Corbyn that was the driving force behind the revolt, it was actually fear of success. If Corbyn actually succeeded in becoming the next PM, then the Party would have been yanked to the far left for the foreseeable future. It was a risk those on the right and centre were not prepared to take.

    If the suggestion is - as I keep reading on Facebook - that the shadow ministerial team worked against Him from day 1 then its a claim without evidence.

    It seems clear from several of the resignees that having worked very hard to make their brief work they were not publicising the various problems befalling them. Its only after Benn was sacked at 2am that many of them started to question if it was worth continuing.

    Its an old adage about keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Benn wasn't a rival for the leadership. But in sacking him the floodgates opened. The "coup" I keep reading about was instigated by Corbyn...
    Posted in error and so deleted, sorry
    Ah, 09/10 was the coldest I can remember: -15 in Central Manchester, snow and ice on the pavements, trams all cancelled because they couldn't run in temperatures less than -7... - but it was a dry cold with little wind, and didn't feel particularly unpleasant.
    It also stayed cold for ages, finally getting warm at the start of April, with the blossom all coming out in one big powerchord the weekend my first daughter was born.

    Edit - not sure what happened here, but I seem to be replying to a completely unrelated point. I thought I was replying to something about the winter of 09/10, but apparently not. Oh well - I'll leave it. Sorry.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    edited August 2016

    Its an old adage about keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Benn wasn't a rival for the leadership. But in sacking him the floodgates opened. The "coup" I keep reading about was instigated by Corbyn...

    Pretty smart of him, wasn't it? For all that his team is clearly a very incompetent organisation, they seem to have had little trouble in outwitting the PLP.
    The incompetent can beat the competent if they have enough advantages, such as membership support, and strength of will, sheer stubbornness, to overcome their lack of smarts. There is always a level of force no clever tactics can overcome.

    Which is not to say I think the PLP have been particualrly smart, but I'd have though history has shown sometimes if you are determined and certain enough, amidst a calvacade of the confused and uncertain, you can overcome what seem like impossible odds and an array of opposing forces which on paper should defeat you.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:

    Theakes overstates the case but it is more probable than possible that the Conservatives' divisions will resurface (and conceivably rancorously so) once the terms of Brexit become apparent and we're talking about only months before the election. Add to that quagmire an economic downturn or recession (it really doesn't matter if it's Brexit induced) and you can easily and credibly picture a scenario where re-election is far from a forgone conclusion.

    It is possible May could find it much harder than almost all think. It is harder to envisage a Corbyn led party taking full enough advantage of even the most beneficial circumstance however.
    That's the point. Of course the wheel will turn it always does, but Labour are proposing (as far as I understand) for PM at present a bloke who can't seemingly book a train ticket, who apparently supported the IRA, doesn't like Nato, thinks Trident is bad - but is happy to spend £37Bn or whatever on having them sail around empty (Geez just give everyone in Barrow half a million quid, it's cheaper), thinks mass immigration is great no questions asked, has a shadow CoE who used Mao's little red book as a prop, does not have the confidence of three quarters of his MP's, and thinks Scotland will be won back by being "anti austerity" And that's before we get on to the Venezuelan economics.

    It's not exactly a platform to be best placed to appeal to Mr and Mrs not very interested in politics in Bury, and Basildon and Bridgend is it?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    PlatoSaid said:
    Prof Hughes Hallett himself notes that oil prices fell around 54 per cent over the period, but asks “What…happened to the missing 45 per cent?”, referring to the difference between the 99 per cent number for the drop in revenues and the 54 per cent number for the drop in prices as if there were some connection between these two figures.

    LOL.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Cookie said:



    Ah, 09/10 was the coldest I can remember: -15 in Central Manchester, snow and ice on the pavements, trams all cancelled because they couldn't run in temperatures less than -7... - but it was a dry cold with little wind, and didn't feel particularly unpleasant.
    It also stayed cold for ages, finally getting warm at the start of April, with the blossom all coming out in one big powerchord the weekend my first daughter was born.

    Edit - not sure what happened here, but I seem to be replying to a completely unrelated point. I thought I was replying to something about the winter of 09/10, but apparently not. Oh well - I'll leave it. Sorry.

    Sorry, Cookie, After posting I realised that I had put my post, which did indeed include a reference to the winter of 2009/10, as a reply to something unrelated. Rather than faff about I simply deleted it.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    There's been a good berry crop this year - blackberries in particular are impressive.

    It would however be a little surprising if it was the coldest winter since 1947 as that of 1963 was colder and is one of only two occasions since 1814 that the Thames has frozen.

    The coldest I can remember is 2009/10, where temperatures in Gloucestershire were consistently below -8. My father says it was also very bad in 1981.
    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    Mr Dancer, I am basing my forecast on the fact that Plane Trees are shedding their leaves early (very early) this year, whereas the Plane Tree is usually the last of the deciduous trees the clear their branches in autumn and the last to leaf in the spring.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I believe that the need to deselect at least the ringleaders is warranted.

    My complain against Corbyn is that a leader needs to be a good butcher, the failed coup was a product of allowing people like Hilary Benn to stay inside and continue their plotting for too long.

    At least the members of the shadow cabinet who resigned in order to trigger this, they need to either fall on the swords or be cut out by a CLP guillotine in a trigger ballot.

    If deselections are still out of the question then at least force them to contest seats that are in line with their political beliefs, exile them as candidates to the rural south.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Cookie said:



    Ah, 09/10 was the coldest I can remember: -15 in Central Manchester, snow and ice on the pavements, trams all cancelled because they couldn't run in temperatures less than -7... - but it was a dry cold with little wind, and didn't feel particularly unpleasant.
    It also stayed cold for ages, finally getting warm at the start of April, with the blossom all coming out in one big powerchord the weekend my first daughter was born.

    In Gloucestershire it often got very foggy, although it was warmer than in Manchester. So what I particularly remember is the damp clinging to the trees and forming the most amazing rime so every tree looked like something off an iced cake. I lived in the Forest of Dean and sang in Westonbirt Arboretum, and it was absolutely stunning - beyond beautiful.

    Bloody cold though and very costly on the central heating for an unemployed researcher on casual contracts.
  • Options
    MikeK said:

    Winter is Coming on GOT and it's also coming to Britain.

    My forecast for the coming winter over the British Isle is that it will be the coldest winter since the winter of 1947/48. Be prepared for snowdrifts even in central London and even parts of the Thames may ice over.

    Where is GOT?

    Re your forecast. You are Piers Corbyn and I claim my five pounds....
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359

    Southam - they love it. Its an existential battle for Labour's soul. If doing things right means Iraq and PFI then what does it matter that mistakes are made its the PRINCIPLE that matters. Thats what people vote on, PRINCIPLE.

    Nick - thanks for your response. Can I refer you to Ann Widdecombe's description of Mad Frankie Howerd as having "something of the night about him" - it was referred to continually and plagued his time as leader. "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" was answered "ewww no". And these MPs will have your dead letter hung round their necks like a Widdiquote. They'll be a laughing stock. And they know it...

    People are rightly keen on principles relating to matters they think are important. I don't think 4-year-old internal party letters even reach voters' attention thereshold. There are other more difficult things to worry about! (I didn't say it was going to be easy...)
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    weejonnie said:
    Nate Sliver is cherry picking, shock.

    As I mentioned, metropolitan democrats can't even imagine a different conclusion to a Hillary landslide due to their political beliefs, so they are shopping around for evidence to support their belief.

    Now if one is consistent he would not suddenly start cherry picking.

    I use the same 7 pollsters with the same method since July 29th on my average daily tracking poll, and I'm pretty happy with it's consistency and solidness of it's results.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    One of Mrs Clinton's bag-carriers has made the extraordinary claim that Russia are funding UKIP.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/770955004127633408
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    Surely bricks and mortar provide better insulation than the worsen structure on the top of the bot? Unless it was a sub....
  • Options
    MikeK said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    There's been a good berry crop this year - blackberries in particular are impressive.

    It would however be a little surprising if it was the coldest winter since 1947 as that of 1963 was colder and is one of only two occasions since 1814 that the Thames has frozen.

    The coldest I can remember is 2009/10, where temperatures in Gloucestershire were consistently below -8. My father says it was also very bad in 1981.
    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    Mr Dancer, I am basing my forecast on the fact that Plane Trees are shedding their leaves early (very early) this year, whereas the Plane Tree is usually the last of the deciduous trees the clear their branches in autumn and the last to leaf in the spring.
    I am guessing the leaf shedding is down to the very wet year up to mid july after which it abruptly stopped and has hardly rained since.

    That said I have had an allotment here in Bedfordshire since 2003. In the early years it was very easy to things like hubbard squash and other veg more often seen in South Africa than here. Hardly a frost some years.

    Since 2010 that has been changing with cold wet weather lasting longer and longer in spring delaying the crop and leaving it vulnerable to rot. Then the chilliness and frost is returning earlier cutting the season short. Squeezed at both ends and much harder.

    This actually aligns with Corbyn (P) 's warnings that far from global warming we are heading into a mini ice age and now with the recent el ninio dispersing we are going to really start copping it the next few winters.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Corbyn will win the leadership election, that's obvious to any fool. Labour will go on limping right up to the next election, lose it by a landslide, and Corbyn will continue to be their leader. If anyone thinks he'll resign because Labour lost a GE, then they haven't been living in the real world for the last year or so. Labour are stuck with him, and there is nothing they can do about it.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    MP_SE said:

    One of Mrs Clinton's bag-carriers has made the extraordinary claim that Russia are funding UKIP.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/770955004127633408

    Brexitski.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    I seem to remember on top of all those wet summers from 2007 we had several bad winters in a row as well. 2010/11 was also cold, but nobody realised it because there was something far more important going on in Oz and we were all watching that.

    It has been suggested that a spell of unusually snowy winters in the 1840s also influenced the development of the humble Christmas card and its traditional snowy scene, which was not usual i n England (we tend to have more snow early in the year). I've no idea whether that's true or not though.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    MikeK said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    There's been a good berry crop this year - blackberries in particular are impressive.

    It would however be a little surprising if it was the coldest winter since 1947 as that of 1963 was colder and is one of only two occasions since 1814 that the Thames has frozen.

    The coldest I can remember is 2009/10, where temperatures in Gloucestershire were consistently below -8. My father says it was also very bad in 1981.
    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    Mr Dancer, I am basing my forecast on the fact that Plane Trees are shedding their leaves early (very early) this year, whereas the Plane Tree is usually the last of the deciduous trees the clear their branches in autumn and the last to leaf in the spring.
    I am guessing the leaf shedding is down to the very wet year up to mid july after which it abruptly stopped and has hardly rained since.

    That said I have had an allotment here in Bedfordshire since 2003. In the early years it was very easy to things like hubbard squash and other veg more often seen in South Africa than here. Hardly a frost some years.

    Since 2010 that has been changing with cold wet weather lasting longer and longer in spring delaying the crop and leaving it vulnerable to rot. Then the chilliness and frost is returning earlier cutting the season short. Squeezed at both ends and much harder.

    This actually aligns with Corbyn (P) 's warnings that far from global warming we are heading into a mini ice age and now with the recent el ninio dispersing we are going to really start copping it the next few winters.
    Doesn't climate change mean you have more extreme weather, hot or cold?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,405
    edited August 2016
    MP_SE said:

    One of Mrs Clinton's bag-carriers has made the extraordinary claim that Russia are funding UKIP.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/770955004127633408

    I think UKIP should be included in the quotes, no?
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited August 2016
    <
    MP_SE said:

    One of Mrs Clinton's bag-carriers has made the extraordinary claim that Russia are funding UKIP.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/770955004127633408

    Fargle has really rattled Clinton and the Democrats.

    How Dave must be wishing that Obama had been as successful in his interjection over here lol.

    The Irony is that if Obama hadnt so impertinently told us how to vote Fargle probably wouldnt have given that speech
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    Surely bricks and mortar provide better insulation than the worsen structure on the top of the bot? Unless it was a sub....
    No - but the roof wasn't the problem in most houses, after all they all had snow on top, it was the thin walls. A huge cushion of water up to head height sort of helped there.

    I think most people don't realise how much of the cabin of the average canal boat is below water level.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    On topic, I wonder if a couple of these issues are related?

    If some MPs are wavering about returning to the front bench after a Corbyn victory, the leadership can let it be known that the clamour for mass deselections would be irresistible if the front benches can't be filled with the current crop.

    In terms of the U-turn needed I'd agree with Nick it's trivial in the grand scheme of things. "The MPs asked the party members to give their view again. the members have spoken and I respect the democratic outcome. Nothing is more important than strong opposition to the Tory government doing so much damage to public services so after consulting with my local party I've accepted the offer to return to the frontbench blah de blah......" Not difficult to write.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Portrait In Flesh
    I am officially expelled from the Labour party. Thought police, much? https://t.co/RUHXxJsgkv

    He voted in an online opinion poll
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    I've been unable to get through Rolt's Landscape Trilogy - it's turgid. A shame, as he was a fascinating man.

    As for the winter of 1947: my dad was living with his parents in a remote farm near Leek in Staffordshire. After a few days of heavy snow his dad tried to get the milk to the local distributor. He got in his tractor and made his way towards the road. He turned back when he saw the roadside telegraph poles dip under the snow's surface, before emerging again on the other side of a small valley.

    The farmhouse had three-foot thick stone walls and he said it remained warm all winter with a couple of small fires. He also said it took all summer for the walls to warm up again!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    tpfkar said:

    On topic, I wonder if a couple of these issues are related?

    If some MPs are wavering about returning to the front bench after a Corbyn victory, the leadership can let it be known that the clamour for mass deselections would be irresistible if the front benches can't be filled with the current crop.

    In terms of the U-turn needed I'd agree with Nick it's trivial in the grand scheme of things. "The MPs asked the party members to give their view again. the members have spoken and I respect the democratic outcome. Nothing is more important than strong opposition to the Tory government doing so much damage to public services so after consulting with my local party I've accepted the offer to return to the frontbench blah de blah......" Not difficult to write.

    It wouldn't be difficult to write. But how many resigned because of policy/principle/power and how many because they felt they could not work a single second longer with someone so manifestly useless? Because for the latter group, going back is clearly not a decision to take lightly.

    Corbyn may promise to change, but given his record I would treat any such promise with large quantities of salt.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    PlatoSaid said:

    Portrait In Flesh
    I am officially expelled from the Labour party. Thought police, much? https://t.co/RUHXxJsgkv

    He voted in an online opinion poll

    Tory scum!
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Oh dear. Oxford Momentum are getting jittery. One of them did a phone bank shift last night and it was 27-16 to Smith....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    Surely bricks and mortar provide better insulation than the worsen structure on the top of the bot? Unless it was a sub....
    No - but the roof wasn't the problem in most houses, after all they all had snow on top, it was the thin walls. A huge cushion of water up to head height sort of helped there.

    I think most people don't realise how much of the cabin of the average canal boat is below water level.
    Ah, I suppose I'm thinking of an era before breeze blocks were a norm. Interesting!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334


    I've been unable to get through Rolt's Landscape Trilogy - it's turgid. A shame, as he was a fascinating man.

    As for the winter of 1947: my dad was living with his parents in a remote farm near Leek in Staffordshire. After a few days of heavy snow his dad tried to get the milk to the local distributor. He got in his tractor and made his way towards the road. He turned back when he saw the roadside telegraph poles dip under the snow's surface, before emerging again on the other side of a small valley.

    The farmhouse had three-foot thick stone walls and he said it remained warm all winter with a couple of small fires. He also said it took all summer for the walls to warm up again!

    True story. In April 2011 I was playing for a wedding at Hope Mansell near Ross on Wye. It was a fine sunny day and quite warm. So we left the door open for the whole service in the hope that the heat would come in!
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MikeK said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. K, my mother reckoned winter would be cold, based on the large number of berries on the hawthorns (I think).

    There's been a good berry crop this year - blackberries in particular are impressive.

    It would however be a little surprising if it was the coldest winter since 1947 as that of 1963 was colder and is one of only two occasions since 1814 that the Thames has frozen.

    The coldest I can remember is 2009/10, where temperatures in Gloucestershire were consistently below -8. My father says it was also very bad in 1981.
    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    Mr Dancer, I am basing my forecast on the fact that Plane Trees are shedding their leaves early (very early) this year, whereas the Plane Tree is usually the last of the deciduous trees the clear their branches in autumn and the last to leaf in the spring.
    I am guessing the leaf shedding is down to the very wet year up to mid july after which it abruptly stopped and has hardly rained since.

    That said I have had an allotment here in Bedfordshire since 2003. In the early years it was very easy to things like hubbard squash and other veg more often seen in South Africa than here. Hardly a frost some years.

    Since 2010 that has been changing with cold wet weather lasting longer and longer in spring delaying the crop and leaving it vulnerable to rot. Then the chilliness and frost is returning earlier cutting the season short. Squeezed at both ends and much harder.

    This actually aligns with Corbyn (P) 's warnings that far from global warming we are heading into a mini ice age and now with the recent el ninio dispersing we are going to really start copping it the next few winters.
    That squares with our experience on our allotment. Mind you, for the last couple of years the soft fruit crop has been wonderful, the onions, shallots and garlic dreadful. Though the spuds have done OK.

    Whether we are about to enter a new mini-ice age is moot. My personal view is that we live in England where whilst the weather is seldom extreme it is frequently variable and often bad.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    MP_SE said:

    One of Mrs Clinton's bag-carriers has made the extraordinary claim that Russia are funding UKIP.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/770955004127633408

    I think UKIP should be included in the quotes, no?
    wibble
  • Options
    madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    I've been unable to get through Rolt's Landscape Trilogy - it's turgid. A shame, as he was a fascinating man.

    As for the winter of 1947: my dad was living with his parents in a remote farm near Leek in Staffordshire. After a few days of heavy snow his dad tried to get the milk to the local distributor. He got in his tractor and made his way towards the road. He turned back when he saw the roadside telegraph poles dip under the snow's surface, before emerging again on the other side of a small valley.

    The farmhouse had three-foot thick stone walls and he said it remained warm all winter with a couple of small fires. He also said it took all summer for the walls to warm up again!
    We moved to three miles outside Macduff on the Moray Firth in the early 1960s. The winter of 1963 we had 4 meters of snow outside our back door and the side road on which our house was impassable for three months.

    We could not go to school for a week - my brother and I walked 3 miles there and back.

    The house had no central heating. A kitchen Rayburn kept one room warm.. Temperatures were well below freezing a paraffin heater kept our pipes form freezing. Ice on the inside of windows was the norm..

    The house was very very cold...
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Jason said:

    Corbyn will win the leadership election, that's obvious to any fool. Labour will go on limping right up to the next election, lose it by a landslide, and Corbyn will continue to be their leader. If anyone thinks he'll resign because Labour lost a GE, then they haven't been living in the real world for the last year or so. Labour are stuck with him, and there is nothing they can do about it.

    My, perhaps somewhat forlorn, hope for the Labour Party is that some sort of peace breaks out over the next two years with lessons being learned on both sides. Acceptance from Corbyn that perhaps he is not the man to lead them into the next election and acceptance from his MP's that the leadership and the Party does need to represent and reflect the left-wing views of the majority of the membership.

    So my hope is that there will be a period of uneasy truce where MP's will agree not to brief against Corbyn in an attempt to present a less disunited Party to the electorate and that during this period an agreement can be reached whereby Corbyn agrees to step down and his fellow MP's agree to make enough nominations for his chosen left-wing successor to make it on to the ballot paper in a leadership election.

    Just as long as his chosen successor is not McDonnell, then in those circumstances, I think Labour will still be in with a shout in a 202 election.

  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    ydoethur said:

    I seem to remember on top of all those wet summers from 2007 we had several bad winters in a row as well. 2010/11 was also cold, but nobody realised it because there was something far more important going on in Oz and we were all watching that.

    It has been suggested that a spell of unusually snowy winters in the 1840s also influenced the development of the humble Christmas card and its traditional snowy scene, which was not usual i n England (we tend to have more snow early in the year). I've no idea whether that's true or not though.

    I thought the Christmas card, like the Christmas tree, came to England with Prince Albert and it was his Germanic experience of Winter that set the trend for snowy scenes etc.. The traditional English practices of the yule log and decorating home and churches with evergreen plants and leaves is much, much older and quite possibly predates Christianity in these islands.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    Surely bricks and mortar provide better insulation than the worsen structure on the top of the bot? Unless it was a sub....
    No - but the roof wasn't the problem in most houses, after all they all had snow on top, it was the thin walls. A huge cushion of water up to head height sort of helped there.

    I think most people don't realise how much of the cabin of the average canal boat is below water level.
    Ah, I suppose I'm thinking of an era before breeze blocks were a norm. Interesting!
    Jessop's pointless fact #260594; some solid breeze blocks float!
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Telegraph
    Companies providing public services should be subject to Freedom of Information, says new Information Commissioner https://t.co/Y90fNM9HJO
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeK said:



    Well I have lived through the cold winters of 1939/40, the winter of 1947/48 and 1963 and 1947 was the longest winter with the deepest snows when the snows came late in February/March. 1963 may have been the coldest in the country as a whole but not where I lived in a London suburb, where it was cold but also short in duration.

    There is an account of the winter of 46/47 in Rolt's autobiography Landscape with Canals, which refers to the narrow boat he was living on being frozen in from November to March. He was just thankful he was on a boat, with its thick insulation of water, not in a house.

    It is interesting though that you say the snows arrived in February and March - my grandparents always said the snows arrived in November and left in March, to be followed of course by massive and disastrous floods. My mother was born in November and my father in March! But that was also in the Valleys and Shropshire, so it may have been different there from London.

    I will be very glad I've got the stove if it is as cold or colder than 2009. I shall also be cursing that History has been moved into a temporary classroom though!
    Surely bricks and mortar provide better insulation than the worsen structure on the top of the bot? Unless it was a sub....
    No - but the roof wasn't the problem in most houses, after all they all had snow on top, it was the thin walls. A huge cushion of water up to head height sort of helped there.

    I think most people don't realise how much of the cabin of the average canal boat is below water level.
    Ah, I suppose I'm thinking of an era before breeze blocks were a norm. Interesting!
    Jessop's pointless fact #260594; some solid breeze blocks float!
    So does (would) Saturn!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Doethur, wasn't it because Dickens had lots of snowy Christmases in his childhood, and then put snow into all the Christmases of his books?
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Getting information from May is like pulling teeth. Journalists clearly hating it. But it's going to be a British Brexit that much is clear.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Companies providing public services should be subject to Freedom of Information, says new Information Commissioner https://t.co/Y90fNM9HJO

    Bloody Canadians coming over here and telling us what to do... :D
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Jim Waterson
    OK, how many people knew that Lembit Opik was a BBC Radio Kent presenter these days. https://t.co/mLZihlAjBm
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited August 2016

    Mr. Doethur, wasn't it because Dickens had lots of snowy Christmases in his childhood, and then put snow into all the Christmases of his books?

    Yes, that's also something I've heard. There were a run of bad winters and wet summers in the post-Napoleonic period which caused a lot of social unrest.

    @HurstLlama not sure Albert was responsible for cards as he was for trees. I thought they were a marketing gimmick by the Royal Mail. But I don't know in any detail and I could easily be wrong. Yes, it has been suggested evergreen decorations are a Yuletide thing from the Druids and I find that eminently plausible given the themes of birth/rebirth/endurance typified by the yews they were so fond of.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    edited August 2016

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    They must have lost all sympathy by now, especially given the leaked chat which showed it was all about money.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    We could import thousands of Doctors if we didn;t have to keep accepting low skilled immigrants to serve Meeks cheap Quinoa and Brioche.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    Good job its a point of principle and not money grubbing, because that would make them just like everyone else and not saints.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Jim Waterson
    OK, how many people knew that Lembit Opik was a BBC Radio Kent presenter these days. https://t.co/mLZihlAjBm

    Nick Owen (of "TV-am" fame) does the Midlands local BBC news.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    If teachers went on strike for a full week the public would crucify us. But it is most unlikely anyone would die as a result.

    I really wonder if the junior doctors have thought this through. Even their own union wants to stop this, but they seem to be going on more or less for the hell of it.

    I don't think it will end well for them. Apart from anything else, a massive rise in recalcitrant patients seems likely.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    RobD said:

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    They must have lost all sympathy by now, especially given the leaked chat which showed it was all about money.
    "The BMA has said members felt it did not do enough to reward those who work the most weekends and there was strong opposition to the fact that it was being forced on them."

    All about the money....
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    You do get the sense they're pushing their luck now, especially being the BMA recommended the terms of the last deal.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Daniel Hamilton
    The result, in all its glory. Dilma Rousseff removed from office. Needed 54 votes to pass but got 61 in the end. https://t.co/t3jqT68Zrh
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jim Waterson
    OK, how many people knew that Lembit Opik was a BBC Radio Kent presenter these days. https://t.co/mLZihlAjBm

    Who knew Alan Partridge was gritty social realism
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Miss Plato, has Rousseff actually been charged with a crime?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,202
    ydoethur said:

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    If teachers went on strike for a full week the public would crucify us. But it is most unlikely anyone would die as a result.

    I really wonder if the junior doctors have thought this through. Even their own union wants to stop this, but they seem to be going on more or less for the hell of it.

    I don't think it will end well for them. Apart from anything else, a massive rise in recalcitrant patients seems likely.
    Two old school friends of mine are JDs and are all for the action. They're also Corbynistas.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Miss Plato, has Rousseff actually been charged with a crime?

    She's being impeached - not sure if this is just the kick off vote formally start it.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Junior Doctors are going out on strike again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37229680

    Potentially five-day strikes each month.

    If teachers went on strike for a full week the public would crucify us. But it is most unlikely anyone would die as a result.

    I really wonder if the junior doctors have thought this through. Even their own union wants to stop this, but they seem to be going on more or less for the hell of it.

    I don't think it will end well for them. Apart from anything else, a massive rise in recalcitrant patients seems likely.
    Two old school friends of mine are JDs and are all for the action. They're also Corbynistas.
    Not sure I'd be comfortable being treated by soembody who thought Jeremy Corbyn had the cure for society's ills. Or who was stupid enough to think he was intelligent or honest.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pew Research
    In advance of Trump speech tonight: 5 facts about Trump supporters’ views of immigration https://t.co/cyIB3U5DHk https://t.co/LSO4f1T5Od
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    PlatoSaid said:

    Miss Plato, has Rousseff actually been charged with a crime?

    She's being impeached - not sure if this is just the kick off vote formally start it.
    Na, it's now done and dusted.
This discussion has been closed.