On religion, it seems to me that if there are any supernatural powers, the ancients probably had it right with a whole set of jealous, squabbling gods; gods with honour but little morality, who are capricious, whimsical and at times downright cruel but who equally might, should the mood and their fancy take them, be beneficent too.
On politics, no, the PLP won't unite around Corbyn when he's re-elected for more any longer than it takes for him to prove why all the reasons he failed in his first year will apply again in his second.
And also, I've a new article out on Total Politics, if anyone's interested.
That goes widely against the way that part of the project's being reported. Could you provide a linky for your costings, please?
For instance, this reports the strengthening works of the tube station for the bridge as costing £3 million.
It also doesn't make the bridge any less of a £175 million white elephant.
It's what Mervyn told me when I last saw him, so no links I'm afraid
That was a little over a year ago though
Okay. I win.
I believe Mervyn. He's a friend of the family.
Most of your posts mention your family's links to the great and good. We mere plebs have to rely on documentation, not what we were told over caviar and canapes (*).
I'm not saying Mervyn's lying. I'm not saying you're lying. It's just that what you're saying seems to goes against what's being reported.
What's more, as it's public money, the reality should be available to we plebs in a document somewhere.
(*) Which probably shows how out-of-touch I am with that world. Canapes are probably very 1980s ...
Bribery and corruption by Team GB...disgraceful....
The cost? ‘After everything else, the thing it took to persuade the military to let us use it was the installation of a new dishwasher for the officers’ mess,’ explained Timson. ‘For the price of that, the triathlon team are able to complete their preparations in the best way possible. ’
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Don't Berserkers use skulls like this?
Joking aside, there are documented instances of skulls being used as drinking vessels e.g. Nicephorus (Byzantine Emperor) who made the mistake of losing a battle against Krum (a fantastic barbarian name). They were usually sealed in some fashion though.
On religion, it seems to me that if there are any supernatural powers, the ancients probably had it right with a whole set of jealous, squabbling gods; gods with honour but little morality, who are capricious, whimsical and at times downright cruel but who equally might, should the mood and their fancy take them, be beneficent too.
On politics, no, the PLP won't unite around Corbyn when he's re-elected for more any longer than it takes for him to prove why all the reasons he failed in his first year will apply again in his second.
And also, I've a new article out on Total Politics, if anyone's interested.
excellent July retail figures today-and anyone who's been out and about in London knows August is going to be even better. I can't see how the economy is going to show a slowdown despite the Markit sentiment reports- I pridict third quarter growth of 0.6% in October that might be a little optimistic given the sudden fall in sterling but I'll stick to it given the massivee proportion the services sector is a nd the feel good factor of the brexit Olympics awell.
Quote me on this in Oct 0.6% quarter on quarter.
Think that is a bit high. There was definitely a pause in the immediate aftermath and the period without an effective PM was not great either. My guess is 0.3 which is so far from the end of the world that you can't see it from there.
by the first revision it will show 0.6% growth if not on the first reading- services estimates come out later don't they?
Mr. Eagles, a serious point: from watching the excellent Lindy Beige Youtube videos [much stuff on ancient warfare], it seems lots of films have a historical consultant so they can put 'historical consultant' in the credits, rather than to actually pay attention to anything he has to say.
Mr. Herdson, quite. Zeus, Athena, Apollo and so forth seem more credible in personal terms than God. Plus, that era had a strong philosophical tradition from which morality was drawn, rather than bundling that up with theism. I think that would be much better today. Monotheism's apparent monopoly on morality is not a good thing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. (John) M, theism's a nice idea, but the beliefs are not persuasive and the actions at the extreme end (because 'God' is on their side) are horrendous.
A good man is quite capable of being good without a Flying Spaghetti Monster. A bad man will do worse (not least because groups form up for the purpose) if he believes he will be touched by His Noodly Appendage for acts of violence.
Mr. Eagles, a serious point: from watching the excellent Lindy Beige Youtube videos [much stuff on ancient warfare], it seems lots of films have a historical consultant so they can put 'historical consultant' in the credits, rather than to actually pay attention to anything he has to say.
Mr. Herdson, quite. Zeus, Athena, Apollo and so forth seem more credible in personal terms than God. Plus, that era had a strong philosophical tradition from which morality was drawn, rather than bundling that up with theism. I think that would be much better today. Monotheism's apparent monopoly on morality is not a good thing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. (John) M, theism's a nice idea, but the beliefs are not persuasive and the actions at the extreme end (because 'God' is on their side) are horrendous.
A good man is quite capable of being good without a Flying Spaghetti Monster. A bad man will do worse (not least because groups form up for the purpose) if he believes he will be touched by His Noodly Appendage for acts of violence.
Apollo's sister Artemis once spied a man perving on her while she was bathing in a stream. So she changed him into a deer and promptly killed him with her arrows.
Bribery and corruption by Team GB...disgraceful....
The cost? ‘After everything else, the thing it took to persuade the military to let us use it was the installation of a new dishwasher for the officers’ mess,’ explained Timson. ‘For the price of that, the triathlon team are able to complete their preparations in the best way possible. ’
"Speaking after her silver medal in the 200m individual medley in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Siobhan-Marie O’Connor said: “The conditions we had for the holding camp were brilliant. To get the only 50m pool in Brazil to train in was perfect. We had a tough trials but it meant we came here the best prepared team.”
I wonder what transferable training techniques will come out of Rio2016. Surely there's a wealth all manner of sports could copy or learn from.
On religion, it seems to me that if there are any supernatural powers, the ancients probably had it right with a whole set of jealous, squabbling gods; gods with honour but little morality, who are capricious, whimsical and at times downright cruel but who equally might, should the mood and their fancy take them, be beneficent too.
On politics, no, the PLP won't unite around Corbyn when he's re-elected for more any longer than it takes for him to prove why all the reasons he failed in his first year will apply again in his second.
And also, I've a new article out on Total Politics, if anyone's interested.
You are right in both your article and why the PLP won't unite around Corbyn. What they may do is go quiet and thus tacitly support him for who knows how long, as I cannot see them having the will to continue to fight him. But they said he was unfit to be leader. Winning a leadership contest, which he'd already proven he could do once, does not alter that they thought him unfit for the job. They can stop agitating against him, but if the bulk say now they do think he is fit for the job, when no new reason has emerged to change their view, means they would at worst be lying if they claimed so.
As for standing in the Cox by-election, it didn't upset me that they decided to go with emotion and say they wouldn't contest, but you lay out why carrying on as normal is perfectly acceptable in such tragic situations.
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Usually, the inside of the skull would be lined with silver to prevent the alcohol from spilling out.
King Alboin of the Lombards was an early Darwin award winner. He killed the King of the Gepids, and forced his daughter Rosamund to marry him. At feasts, he'd quaff from Rosamund's father's skull, and liked to taunt her with it. She smashed in his head with an axe while he was sleeping.
People who obsess with domestic violence today , especially the non physical shouting kind, need this kind of perspective.
Mr. Eagles, a serious point: from watching the excellent Lindy Beige Youtube videos [much stuff on ancient warfare], it seems lots of films have a historical consultant so they can put 'historical consultant' in the credits, rather than to actually pay attention to anything he has to say.
Mr. Herdson, quite. Zeus, Athena, Apollo and so forth seem more credible in personal terms than God. Plus, that era had a strong philosophical tradition from which morality was drawn, rather than bundling that up with theism. I think that would be much better today. Monotheism's apparent monopoly on morality is not a good thing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. (John) M, theism's a nice idea, but the beliefs are not persuasive and the actions at the extreme end (because 'God' is on their side) are horrendous.
A good man is quite capable of being good without a Flying Spaghetti Monster. A bad man will do worse (not least because groups form up for the purpose) if he believes he will be touched by His Noodly Appendage for acts of violence.
Historical consultants I would think are there to advise on what things were really like or really happened, to help the director create the necessary verisimilitude. The important thing is it looks and feels real and accurate, not that it actually be so, unless it is a documentary. Frustrating when it is something basic and fundamental and there's no need to alter the story vision by being accurate.
Which is fine, they are trying to tell interesting stories, although the downside is we end up sticking to well worn tropes with historical dressing, when sometimes reality, as best we can tell, was far more interesting that the standard historical movie tropes.
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Usually, the inside of the skull would be lined with silver to prevent the alcohol from spilling out.
King Alboin of the Lombards was an early Darwin award winner. He killed the King of the Gepids, and forced his daughter Rosamund to marry him. At feasts, he'd quaff from Rosamund's father's skull, and liked to taunt her with it. She smashed in his head with an axe while he was sleeping.
Re: Northern Ireland, I tried to explain to my wife recently that Ian Paisley called alcohol The Devil's Buttermilk.
She said, "oooh, can I have some? Where can we get that?"
I had to explain, "no, that's what he calls *all* alcohol."
On religion, it seems to me that if there are any supernatural powers, the ancients probably had it right with a whole set of jealous, squabbling gods; gods with honour but little morality, who are capricious, whimsical and at times downright cruel but who equally might, should the mood and their fancy take them, be beneficent too.
On politics, no, the PLP won't unite around Corbyn when he's re-elected for more any longer than it takes for him to prove why all the reasons he failed in his first year will apply again in his second.
And also, I've a new article out on Total Politics, if anyone's interested.
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Usually, the inside of the skull would be lined with silver to prevent the alcohol from spilling out.
King Alboin of the Lombards was an early Darwin award winner. He killed the King of the Gepids, and forced his daughter Rosamund to marry him. At feasts, he'd quaff from Rosamund's father's skull, and liked to taunt her with it. She smashed in his head with an axe while he was sleeping.
Re: Northern Ireland, I tried to explain to my wife recently that Ian Paisley called alcohol The Devil's Buttermilk.
She said, "oooh, can I have some? Where can we get that?"
I had to explain, "no, that's what he calls *all* alcohol."
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Usually, the inside of the skull would be lined with silver to prevent the alcohol from spilling out.
King Alboin of the Lombards was an early Darwin award winner. He killed the King of the Gepids, and forced his daughter Rosamund to marry him. At feasts, he'd quaff from Rosamund's father's skull, and liked to taunt her with it. She smashed in his head with an axe while he was sleeping.
Re: Northern Ireland, I tried to explain to my wife recently that Ian Paisley called alcohol The Devil's Buttermilk.
She said, "oooh, can I have some? Where can we get that?"
I had to explain, "no, that's what he calls *all* alcohol."
Bribery and corruption by Team GB...disgraceful....
The cost? ‘After everything else, the thing it took to persuade the military to let us use it was the installation of a new dishwasher for the officers’ mess,’ explained Timson. ‘For the price of that, the triathlon team are able to complete their preparations in the best way possible. ’
"Speaking after her silver medal in the 200m individual medley in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Siobhan-Marie O’Connor said: “The conditions we had for the holding camp were brilliant. To get the only 50m pool in Brazil to train in was perfect. We had a tough trials but it meant we came here the best prepared team.”
I wonder what transferable training techniques will come out of Rio2016. Surely there's a wealth all manner of sports could copy or learn from.
And at the other end of the spectrum....apparently the Romanian weightlifters kit was so badly made it shrank in the wash and started to break up when put under strains of competition.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Usually, the inside of the skull would be lined with silver to prevent the alcohol from spilling out.
King Alboin of the Lombards was an early Darwin award winner. He killed the King of the Gepids, and forced his daughter Rosamund to marry him. At feasts, he'd quaff from Rosamund's father's skull, and liked to taunt her with it. She smashed in his head with an axe while he was sleeping.
Re: Northern Ireland, I tried to explain to my wife recently that Ian Paisley called alcohol The Devil's Buttermilk.
She said, "oooh, can I have some? Where can we get that?"
I had to explain, "no, that's what he calls *all* alcohol."
starting HS2 from ... Sheffield/Leeds down to Birmingham
Given that they've yet to finalise the route around Sheffield, have a planning enquiry and then start on the multi-year process of everyone suing everyone, I'm not actually sure that we can bring the eastern section of HS2 part 2 materially forward even if the money suddenly appeared on May's doorstep.
If the project was done underground that would completely sidestep the majority of planning issues and the route would be simple, as the crow flies.
Would you really want to do a 3-4 hour journey underground? If you have no choice like the Channel tunnel then I suppose it is bearable (not done it myself) but as a regular thing? This island is crowded but it is not that crowded.
If it was quicker and had wifi I'd love it. We travel in trains at night after all.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
Eye sockets. Sorry. Barbarians have to quaff or swill, not sip. Horns are pretty much compulsory. Clearly you are but an armchair, wannabe barbarian.
Usually, the inside of the skull would be lined with silver to prevent the alcohol from spilling out.
King Alboin of the Lombards was an early Darwin award winner. He killed the King of the Gepids, and forced his daughter Rosamund to marry him. At feasts, he'd quaff from Rosamund's father's skull, and liked to taunt her with it. She smashed in his head with an axe while he was sleeping.
Re: Northern Ireland, I tried to explain to my wife recently that Ian Paisley called alcohol The Devil's Buttermilk.
She said, "oooh, can I have some? Where can we get that?"
I had to explain, "no, that's what he calls *all* alcohol."
That sounds like Bailey's - URGH.
She loves Baileys.
I confess to once being fond of Kaluha - that's the one with the elephant label? But very long ago.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
starting HS2 from ... Sheffield/Leeds down to Birmingham
Given that they've yet to finalise the route around Sheffield, have a planning enquiry and then start on the multi-year process of everyone suing everyone, I'm not actually sure that we can bring the eastern section of HS2 part 2 materially forward even if the money suddenly appeared on May's doorstep.
If the project was done underground that would completely sidestep the majority of planning issues and the route would be simple, as the crow flies.
Would you really want to do a 3-4 hour journey underground? If you have no choice like the Channel tunnel then I suppose it is bearable (not done it myself) but as a regular thing? This island is crowded but it is not that crowded.
If it was quicker and had wifi I'd love it. We travel in trains at night after all.
But you can't see anything at night! I try and do my "colouring in my Baker Atlas" journeys during daylight wherever possible.
Although there was the time, two years ago, when I "accidentally" did the Stechford to Aston connection, and the Perry Barr east to south curve, at night-time, by virtue of catching the last fast train from Coventry to Brum (11.30pm). I had no idea it actually took this rather circuitous route until I saw Aston Villa FC out of the window!
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
It's far too early to judge the effects of the Brexit vote.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Waiting until August data is eminently sensible. However, to call consumers ignorant and then base employment forecasts on sentiment based indices rather than hard data to justify his prediction of a slow down comes across as bitter.
Contrast that with the comment from Berenberg, who say that we are likely to avoid a recession based on the latest available data. The facts have changed and so has their forecast.
So far I think I'm going to beat our forecasting unit and many others out there. For someone who has never had any formal education in economics I'm not sure if that reflects well on me or badly on everyone else.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
There's an infection of this thinking around certain parts of the media, people who until a couple of months ago were cheerleaders for good economic news are now at best reserved about it.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
But there's no "fire" involved, is there? "Fire" is more appropriate for fire-arms.
Bribery and corruption by Team GB...disgraceful....
The cost? ‘After everything else, the thing it took to persuade the military to let us use it was the installation of a new dishwasher for the officers’ mess,’ explained Timson. ‘For the price of that, the triathlon team are able to complete their preparations in the best way possible. ’
"Speaking after her silver medal in the 200m individual medley in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Siobhan-Marie O’Connor said: “The conditions we had for the holding camp were brilliant. To get the only 50m pool in Brazil to train in was perfect. We had a tough trials but it meant we came here the best prepared team.”
I wonder what transferable training techniques will come out of Rio2016. Surely there's a wealth all manner of sports could copy or learn from.
The biggest lessons seem to be attention to detail, rigorous planning and, of course, determined implementation. Nothing new there.
Frankly, as we seem to be doing especially well at the sports requiring excellent aerobic fitness and rapidly physiological recovery (cycling, rowing and, to a lesser extent, swimming), my guess is that our sports physiology team is our competitive advantage.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. There are going to be costs from leaving and this was something that the leave campaign conceded, to their credit. Remember Boris' hockey stick analogy? Neither side has lost any face yet, and the country hasn't lost much money yet. Brexit is a long term project and it will be 10 or 20 years before we can even begin to assess what its impacts are. We might all have to modify our opinions in the light of what happens. But if the UK starts slipping down the international league table relative to our European partners I think the idea that Brexit was a good idea will get steadily harder to sustain. That's when you'll start to find it hard to find anyone who ever supported Brexit - or at least whatever kind of Brexit we actually undertook. If it doesn't I suspect nobody will change their minds - we just won't talk about it. Don't expect anyone to confess they got it wrong.
Bribery and corruption by Team GB...disgraceful....
The cost? ‘After everything else, the thing it took to persuade the military to let us use it was the installation of a new dishwasher for the officers’ mess,’ explained Timson. ‘For the price of that, the triathlon team are able to complete their preparations in the best way possible. ’
"Speaking after her silver medal in the 200m individual medley in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Siobhan-Marie O’Connor said: “The conditions we had for the holding camp were brilliant. To get the only 50m pool in Brazil to train in was perfect. We had a tough trials but it meant we came here the best prepared team.”
I wonder what transferable training techniques will come out of Rio2016. Surely there's a wealth all manner of sports could copy or learn from.
The biggest lessons seem to be attention to detail, rigorous planning and, of course, determined implementation. Nothing new there.
Frankly, as we seem to be doing especially well at the sports requiring excellent aerobic fitness and rapidly physiological recovery (cycling, rowing and, to a lesser extent, swimming), my guess is that our sports physiology team is our competitive advantage.
Another thing that seems to be coming out is some of the individuals were competitors at other sports and scouted into different programs.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. There are going to be costs from leaving and this was something that the leave campaign conceded, to their credit. Remember Boris' hockey stick analogy? Neither side has lost any face yet, and the country hasn't lost much money yet. Brexit is a long term project and it will be 10 or 20 years before we can even begin to assess what its impacts are. We might all have to modify our opinions in the light of what happens. But if the UK starts slipping down the international league table relative to our European partners I think the idea that Brexit was a good idea will get steadily harder to sustain. That's when you'll start to find it hard to find anyone who ever supported Brexit - or at least whatever kind of Brexit we actually undertook. If it doesn't I suspect nobody will change their minds - we just won't talk about it. Don't expect anyone to confess they got it wrong.
Strange, I remember Osborne saying we'd need an emergency budget due to how calamitous a Brexit would be. No talk of the effects being so subtle that you'd need 10 or 20 years to assess them!
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
But there's no "fire" involved, is there? "Fire" is more appropriate for fire-arms.
Probably historically one shot an arrow (as in 'he shot his bolt'), but nowadays 'fire' is as commonly used as 'shot', despite the illogicality of it.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. There are going to be costs from leaving and this was something that the leave campaign conceded, to their credit. Remember Boris' hockey stick analogy? Neither side has lost any face yet, and the country hasn't lost much money yet. Brexit is a long term project and it will be 10 or 20 years before we can even begin to assess what its impacts are. We might all have to modify our opinions in the light of what happens. But if the UK starts slipping down the international league table relative to our European partners I think the idea that Brexit was a good idea will get steadily harder to sustain. That's when you'll start to find it hard to find anyone who ever supported Brexit - or at least whatever kind of Brexit we actually undertook. If it doesn't I suspect nobody will change their minds - we just won't talk about it. Don't expect anyone to confess they got it wrong.
I'm entirely mellow, and I haved used neither of those tropes. There are pros and cons to both Leave and Remain.
I respect anyone, no matter which way they voted, simply because it's a complex, multi-faceted topic that none of us can fairly say we understood in its entirety. That said, I've seen a lot of entirely bogus rationales advanced by both sides.
I've stated multiple times that I think the early triumphalism is misplaced, though it's good to see the economy didn't suffer an immediate heart attack. Based on all the forecasts, the long term economic out-turn is mildly negative to neutral. It's the 2019-2024 period that's the worry - that'll be down to how well the Tories execute the separation. Whether we capitalise on the opportunities is in the lap of the Gods.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. .
Mr. Eagles, a serious point: from watching the excellent Lindy Beige Youtube videos [much stuff on ancient warfare], it seems lots of films have a historical consultant so they can put 'historical consultant' in the credits, rather than to actually pay attention to anything he has to say.
Mr. Herdson, quite. Zeus, Athena, Apollo and so forth seem more credible in personal terms than God. Plus, that era had a strong philosophical tradition from which morality was drawn, rather than bundling that up with theism. I think that would be much better today. Monotheism's apparent monopoly on morality is not a good thing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. (John) M, theism's a nice idea, but the beliefs are not persuasive and the actions at the extreme end (because 'God' is on their side) are horrendous.
A good man is quite capable of being good without a Flying Spaghetti Monster. A bad man will do worse (not least because groups form up for the purpose) if he believes he will be touched by His Noodly Appendage for acts of violence.
Plato bundled up morality with theism. In his Republic, atheists would have been executed.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
14-year-old became gun runner for gang of drug dealers because his mother didn't give him enough pocket money
I think they target under agers because the penalties for adults are draconian.
My Brother in law barrister says anyone caught with unlicensed working firearms is looking at a 10 stretch, especially if there's accompanying ammo.
Well lack of pocket money and morals and any sense of right or wrong. I think his parents have slightly more to feel bad about than being mean with the pocket money.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
So much of the gilt market is starting to remind me of the Big Short. It is blindingly obvious most of our sovereigns are irredeemably insolvent and only likely to become more so but people are desperate to lend them ever more money at ever tighter margins. It really is madness if you assume that the rules of the game still apply. The default (hah) assumption is therefore that they do not.
Comments
On politics, no, the PLP won't unite around Corbyn when he's re-elected for more any longer than it takes for him to prove why all the reasons he failed in his first year will apply again in his second.
And also, I've a new article out on Total Politics, if anyone's interested.
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-tories-should-stand-jo-coxs-seat-after-all
I'm sure Morris Dancer was the historical consultant on Braveheart
KingFirst Minister!"I'm not saying Mervyn's lying. I'm not saying you're lying. It's just that what you're saying seems to goes against what's being reported.
What's more, as it's public money, the reality should be available to we plebs in a document somewhere.
(*) Which probably shows how out-of-touch I am with that world. Canapes are probably very 1980s ...
The cost? ‘After everything else, the thing it took to persuade the military to let us use it was the installation of a new dishwasher for the officers’ mess,’ explained Timson. ‘For the price of that, the triathlon team are able to complete their preparations in the best way possible. ’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-3745991/Team-GB-better-prepared-347m-Lottery-money-available.html#ixzz4HgUt0nW2
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/766246213079498752
Mr. Herdson, quite. Zeus, Athena, Apollo and so forth seem more credible in personal terms than God. Plus, that era had a strong philosophical tradition from which morality was drawn, rather than bundling that up with theism. I think that would be much better today. Monotheism's apparent monopoly on morality is not a good thing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. (John) M, theism's a nice idea, but the beliefs are not persuasive and the actions at the extreme end (because 'God' is on their side) are horrendous.
A good man is quite capable of being good without a Flying Spaghetti Monster. A bad man will do worse (not least because groups form up for the purpose) if he believes he will be touched by His Noodly Appendage for acts of violence.
REMAIN 48%
Will it be 52% - 48% between the Donald and Crooked Hillary?
(though I suppose could easily be the other way round!)
The octo-lemur say Clinton wins.
Don't forget, their referendum forecast was spot on.
Edited extra bit: forget the chap's name, but I heard the same story, only he was killed by his own hunting hounds.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2016/08/10/rio-olympics-2016-how-british-swimming-was-transformed-after-lon/
"Speaking after her silver medal in the 200m individual medley in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Siobhan-Marie O’Connor said: “The conditions we had for the holding camp were brilliant. To get the only 50m pool in Brazil to train in was perfect. We had a tough trials but it meant we came here the best prepared team.”
I wonder what transferable training techniques will come out of Rio2016. Surely there's a wealth all manner of sports could copy or learn from.
As for standing in the Cox by-election, it didn't upset me that they decided to go with emotion and say they wouldn't contest, but you lay out why carrying on as normal is perfectly acceptable in such tragic situations.
Which is fine, they are trying to tell interesting stories, although the downside is we end up sticking to well worn tropes with historical dressing, when sometimes reality, as best we can tell, was far more interesting that the standard historical movie tropes.
She said, "oooh, can I have some? Where can we get that?"
I had to explain, "no, that's what he calls *all* alcohol."
And not just sports. We have potentially developed a world beating industry here that we should make sure to cash in on.
The article says the Australians visited the Sheffield base recently. I hope we charged them for the privilege.
Sturgeon mooning - Coleman’s Mustard & DishWasherGate – Another typical day on PB.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
Loose?
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
Although there was the time, two years ago, when I "accidentally" did the Stechford to Aston connection, and the Perry Barr east to south curve, at night-time, by virtue of catching the last fast train from Coventry to Brum (11.30pm). I had no idea it actually took this rather circuitous route until I saw Aston Villa FC out of the window!
Fire is wrong [I've probably used it before and try not to do so any more].
Edited extra bit: eyes are going fuzzy, so I'm off now (alas, I rather like finickity historical discussions).
Which Dinosaur Is Nearest To Your House?
Dozens of species of dinosaurs lived in Britain. Find your local monster.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tomchivers/when-dinosaurs-ruled-whitby?utm_term=.voBWaeJoW#.rej2G0DV2
Mine is Becklespinax altispinax
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Contrast that with the comment from Berenberg, who say that we are likely to avoid a recession based on the latest available data. The facts have changed and so has their forecast.
So far I think I'm going to beat our forecasting unit and many others out there. For someone who has never had any formal education in economics I'm not sure if that reflects well on me or badly on everyone else.
Surely the closest dinosaur to most of us is Laboursauraus corbynus
Court News UK
Consultant psychiatrist Nadir Omara struck off after he drunkenly called up a colleague while he masturbated
Have confidence: 36%
Do not have confidence: 49%
(via YouGov)
Frankly, as we seem to be doing especially well at the sports requiring excellent aerobic fitness and rapidly physiological recovery (cycling, rowing and, to a lesser extent, swimming), my guess is that our sports physiology team is our competitive advantage.
I read somewhere the People's Daily is going for the 'joy of taking part' these days after their underwhelming games.
I wouldn't want to be in their performance director's sandals when its done.
Otherwise it's lose.
If they're looking for a Governor, I'm game, and happy to seed my pith helmet with the feathers of a dead chicken.
Chinese company fines staff for not commenting on boss's Weibo posts https://t.co/68wZATam8Q #NewsFromElsewhere https://t.co/e4zPJGVaHP
I respect anyone, no matter which way they voted, simply because it's a complex, multi-faceted topic that none of us can fairly say we understood in its entirety. That said, I've seen a lot of entirely bogus rationales advanced by both sides.
I've stated multiple times that I think the early triumphalism is misplaced, though it's good to see the economy didn't suffer an immediate heart attack. Based on all the forecasts, the long term economic out-turn is mildly negative to neutral. It's the 2019-2024 period that's the worry - that'll be down to how well the Tories execute the separation. Whether we capitalise on the opportunities is in the lap of the Gods.
I will always hold my hand up as a Brexiteer.
Court News
14-year-old became gun runner for gang of drug dealers because his mother didn't give him enough pocket money
I think they target under agers because the penalties for adults are draconian.
My Brother in law barrister says anyone caught with unlicensed working firearms is looking at a 10 stretch, especially if there's accompanying ammo.