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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence
Yesterday’s shock leader satisfaction ratings from Ipsos MORI that had May with net a positive from LAB voters while Corbyn was given a net negative by the same segment was totally unprecedented. Generally people respond to leader ratings on party basis.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/17/britain-should-leap-frog-hinkley-and-lead-21st-century-nuclear-r/
Mind you, neither potential Labour leader will be causing her sleepless nights. If she screws up, she will do it all by herself.
She cannot do nothing for much longer and is going to have to own the chaos of Fox, Johnson and Davies feuding over Brexit.
She needs to give the go ahead for expansion at Heathrow and probably Gatwick as well. A country that is open to the world for business cannot keep restricting its airport capacity.
She needs to make a decision about Hinkley C. It looks a really crap deal negotiated at a time when all the experts saw energy costs rising indefinitely. If she is not persuaded that is likely any more she needs to find an alternative and fast.
She needs to work out what her economic strategy is. If we are giving up on Osborne's plan to eliminate or at least consistently bear down on the deficit what is the alternative?
She needs to work out what her policy is on education. Are we really going down the grammar school cul de sac again, are we carrying on with the Gove reforms or are we doing something else?
She needs to focus above all on Brexit because the decisions there will impact on everything else. Leaving it to incompetents like Fox or Davis is not a good plan and will not assist in getting certainty quickly which is what is required.
Governing is hard and her ratings will come down fast enough.
Indeed, the only planning that government could sensibly do in this area, is to mandate that new homes come with building integrated solar.
No idea if it worked well. Or at all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37112199 No, Mr. Heatherwick. It means we have no confidence in your ability to design something that is fit for purpose (in fact, any purpose except self-aggrandisement) and anywhere near cost-effective. FFS. In Lord Davies eyes, having no meaningful purpose and being massively over-expensive sums up what is great about Britain. No wonder: he was a Labour minister and used to be in finance.
Lord Davies is the Garden Bridge!
The question then is what these people will do if there is an election and he's still 'leading' the party.
Of course if she wanted to drive up standards, reduce teacher workload and save large sums of money she could abolish OFSTED and the DfES. But given that they are in London and have the Cabinet's ears next to them that will unfortunately never happen.
Re Labour voters, I think it shows rather more just how deep loyalty to the Labour Party runs. It also suggests that the situation is still salvageable if only Corbyn can be removed.
That's the snag, of course..,
Similarly, there are issues about how Academies are monitored and held to account and that does require DfES to get its hands dirty. The assumption that everything is great about Academy status will prove to be wrong, there are no magic bullets in education.
I don't know enough about it but it seems as an outsider that there are major issues with exam boards in England as well and that competition between them has been a major factor in grade inflation.
But you only need to hear Mr & Mrs Trott speaking for 0.1secs to realise that the charge of drug taking is absurd.
Just got mine through and all of them were at least one grade above predictions, which would be rather nice if I weren't still gutted that a couple who had really worked hard and deserved a reward for that got Ds rather than Cs.
You could never have said that about Brown.
She has appointed the three clowns to Brexit and they are already fighting like cats in a sack, so it seems as though she has no intention of letting them "get on with it". All very well for Brexit (and understandable, given its importance and that she will be defined by it).
But for government as a whole? We shall see.
These test grades incidentally are also used in the new league tables to measure progress - the more grades a student rises on them, the better the teacher and the school scores.
Here's fingers crossed for @Cyclefree's youngest as well.
Rather than meddling.
Home Secretary is a tough job, one of the toughest in government but her main skill seemed not to be there when the buck stopped.
Perhaps the autobiography will tell us a bit more but it doesn't add up. Either he cared and she let him down (or it was undoable, probably as likely); or he didn't care, in which case that reflects badly on him.
None of which, of course, would have mattered sans EURef.
This cannot determine whether this is a good idea or not but at a time when confidence has been shaken this needs some management and presentational skill. Maybe an announcement on Crossrail 2 or HS3 could be accelerated to lessen the sting.
'That is true. The impression is of quiet, ruthless even efficiency. But as @AlastairMeeks has noted, she is a micromanager and that is all very well (not ideal) as SoS but is an unknown quantity in a PM.'
If micromanaging blocks a completely an untried , enormously expensive power plant that will stuff consumers with high energy bills for decades what's not to like ?
Lord Davies is the Garden Bridge!
It has a purpose but is not targetted to your particular interests so you don't value that.
I am not really blaming May for her failure in this area. I am just questioning this perception of "ruthless efficiency".
In the main game [early quest, not a spoiler], there's one numbered 114, I think. The computer records show the Overseer (Vault dictator) was selected based on the person least viable for the job. Labour may be Vault 114.
Geothermal means drilling down to where there is genuinely hot water naturally (thermal spring, geyser, volcanic fissure, most of Iceland, etc). This water is then used directly to heat homes or if its REALLY hot to flash to steam in a turbine/generator. The UK is not terribly suitable for this. I believe there is one truly geothermal district heating scheme in Southampton. But it's never going to amount to much in the UK.
Heat pumps are a very different beast. They are fridges in reverse. Icy refrigerant is pumped through pipes buried underground or in ponds etc. The refrigerant gets warmer. An electrically powered scroll pump compresses the now warm refrigerant and it gets very hot. It dumps this heat via a heat exchanger into a water loop. This is circulated round your house. The energy in the hot water comes about 20% from the electricity and 80% from your pond or ground under your lawn. In that sense they can be 400% efficient! If electricity is cheap then heat pumps absolutely rock as a cost effective way to heat homes (displacing demand for gas). If electricity is expensive they may not compete with a good modern gas boiler overall.
One problem they arent comparing "like for like". Number of black peoppe at top unis is very small, due to on average inferior a-level results, therefore it isn't racialism that means they earn less it is they have worse qualifications.
Similar reason behind less black people in high profile jobs.
The question is why are some demographics do much worse at school, especially when other non-white groups do way better than average eg Indian & Chinese.
I can only speak for the old, very generous system which I grabbed with both hands, as I'd just retired and had a small lump sum. My brother bought one recently under the much-reduced tariff but seems happy. I wouldn't have done as I'm not a committed Green.
The old system couldn't have continued. My system will have paid for itself by next year, and earlier this year, I had an offer from a company who offered to give me a lump sum (almost what I paid) to have the feed-in tariffs in the future. I would continue to benefit from the electricity and they would cover any future maintenance costs.
I refused it.
We greedys still toast the innocent stupidity of Mr Miliband. Good on yer, Ed.
Working in Cannock, which is hardly a hotbed of prosperity and high achievement, I keep reminding myself that I am still facing a far less difficult task than I did in Bristol.
Mr. Urquhart, a good point. There was also one about black people being more likely to be victims of homicide, but without mapping the distribution of such incidents and then looking at the ethnic composition of those areas, it's worthless. If black people are 50% of the population in gun-heavy areas, 33% of gunshot victims being black is actually under-representation. If black people are 8% of the population in gun-heavy areas, 33% of gunshot victims being black is massive over-representation.
One gem I picked up from my reading around on heat pumps and low carbon residential in general was that mean internal winter temperatures in 1970 were 12C, now they're 17.5C. Wonder if that has any bearing on our overall weight gains?
(Just to be clear, I don't think he deserved anything either.)
I guess we aren't allowed that discussion because it's racialist, instead they reports just exaggerate grievances & the level of racism & the proposed solution will be positive discrimination rather than addressing the underlying issues.
I love the countryside. I love engineering. I like grand projects. I love London's parks, which are the capital's under-appreciated jewels.
You will see me raving (*) about these topics all too often on PB.
Yet despite all that, I am against the Garden Bridge. Perhaps you should ask yourself if I am right, instead of continuing to defend the indefensible.
(*) In all sense of the term.
I missed most of yesterday's threads, but have we debated this little item? Broxtowe CLP now led by former Worker's Liberty, hard left activist:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/78213/excl-labour-bosses-probe-local-party-officials-far
Has Nick P commented on his old stomping ground?
(Actually a quality modern heat pump can easily heat water to 65c - so fine for bathwater too... Kensa heatpumps have a good website with a brilliant video explaining how they work. If we are about to enter an age of somewhat cheaper electricity because we crack the storage nut and thus open the floodgates for renewables to come into their own, then we're going to see a lot more heat pumps getting installed. We'll be importing a lot less gas.)
The question is how do you break that cycle of low expectations as a school so that they can find it within themselves to work without prompting? And there I have seen both some marvellous work and some genuine laziness.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/student-cheats-and-their-fixers-deserve-harshest-penalties-xlfq9320p
Nursing is apparently rife with it. That strikes me as appalling given the hand-on nature of the job!
I'm not sure if it's been mentioned here, but when talking about such things I'd often link to Mr MacKay's excellent book (available on-line for free) "Sustainable Energy without the hot air"
https://www.withouthotair.com/about.html
Sadly, Mr MacKay died earlier this year. I fear sane debate on energy will miss him.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/18/sir-david-mackay-obituary
Fast coming to the opinion that Rio is a good Olympics, depressingly let down by the locals.
Engineers have been baffled for quite some time. One's coming today, thinks it might be the circuit board.
I'd like it to be mended before winter...
After yesterday's discussion on margin gains in sports including high level statistical analysis, then we get this bollocks.
Both of those projects would be enough to be getting on with for the next 20 years. We need a much better long term energy policy than the legacy of Labour and Osborne. Selling our nuclear industry to the Chinese was a very poor idea. We have home grown nuclear alternatives that can be made to work. The Moltex MSR looks and sounds like a revelation, the £250m nuclear design competition was a wonderful idea and hopefully with HPC off the table the winners of that competition will have the funding to take their reactor design forwards.
The Finnish EPR has bankrupted Areva (to the point of being nationalised) by being 10 years late and 4x overbudget, the Chinese EPR hasn't been cycled up and is stuck in a testing phase similar to a cold shutdown simulation, the French EPR is already years late and massively over budget and doesn't look like it will ever work. It was utter madness to consider this design for the UK. Lets stick to CCGTs, build the Severn and Thames barrages and bet on a different type of nuclear for the future, the Lockheed fusion project looks very promising, it's sad that the UK doesn't back it's companies in the same way to do similar pioneering research.
Mr. Patrick, cheers for the suggestion.
Sorry, should have clarified. Solar PV not solar thermal. It's the greed element. Every three months I get a payment into my bank account - that's what we greedys like. Hot water? Pah!
‘ Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.
A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.
According to the report: "The net immigration from the AC-10 to the UK after the current enlargement of the EU will be relatively small, at between 5,000 and 13,000 immigrants per year up to 2010."
The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.
But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: “The number coming here for employment will be minimal.” ‘
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2967318.stm
June 2016:
' The number of UK workers from eight eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 has passed one million for the first time. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37109747
I am sure there is still a level of racism in the UK, but these kind of reports exaggerate it & don't tackle the root cause, poor educational attainment among certain demographics & not others .
Another example is bangleshi kids vs Indian kids.