Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
I always use 'loose'.
'loose' just seems so un-kinetic.
Let loose the dogs of war? Seems pretty kinetic to me.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
I always use 'loose'.
'loose' just seems so un-kinetic.
Let loose the dogs of war? Seems pretty kinetic to me.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
So much of the gilt market is starting to remind me of the Big Short. It is blindingly obvious most of our sovereigns are irredeemably insolvent and only likely to become more so but people are desperate to lend them ever more money at ever tighter margins. It really is madness if you assume that the rules of the game still apply. The default (hah) assumption is therefore that they do not.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
I always use 'loose'.
'loose' just seems so un-kinetic.
Let loose the dogs of war? Seems pretty kinetic to me.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
I always use 'loose'.
'loose' just seems so un-kinetic.
Let loose the dogs of war? Seems pretty kinetic to me.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
I always use 'loose'.
'loose' just seems so un-kinetic.
Let loose the dogs of war? Seems pretty kinetic to me.
There's a new farcical situation in Rio. The four US swimmers who were held at gun point have been ordered to remain in the country and hand over their passports because the police don't want to look bad and are saying they made up the incident. Two have made it back to the US, the other two were on flights home only to have the plane halted and be escorted to a police station.
The USOC must be going nuts, it will turn into a full on diplomatic incident if the Brazilians aren't careful. I don't understand this mentality at all, it's like arresting women who report being raped in the Middle East.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
So much of the gilt market is starting to remind me of the Big Short. It is blindingly obvious most of our sovereigns are irredeemably insolvent and only likely to become more so but people are desperate to lend them ever more money at ever tighter margins. It really is madness if you assume that the rules of the game still apply. The default (hah) assumption is therefore that they do not.
As I said, it feels like a one way bet.
Forgive me, what is 'the bet' ?
Buying portugese debt ?
2.98 / doesn't seem so great, wouldn't buying gold be a better bet following this logic, as the 'insolvency' seeps out slowly with lower buying power of the major currencies ?
There's a new farcical situation in Rio. The four US swimmers who were held at gun point have been ordered to remain in the country and hand over their passports because the police don't want to look bad and are saying they made up the incident. Two have made it back to the US, the other two were on flights home only to have the plane halted and be escorted to a police station.
The USOC must be going nuts, it will turn into a full on diplomatic incident if the Brazilians aren't careful. I don't understand this mentality at all, it's like arresting women who report being raped in the Middle East.
Comment i saw said cctv showed them laughing and relaxed immediately after the reported incident. And carrying items they later reported stolen...
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
So much of the gilt market is starting to remind me of the Big Short. It is blindingly obvious most of our sovereigns are irredeemably insolvent and only likely to become more so but people are desperate to lend them ever more money at ever tighter margins. It really is madness if you assume that the rules of the game still apply. The default (hah) assumption is therefore that they do not.
As I said, it feels like a one way bet.
Forgive me, what is 'the bet' ?
Buying portugese debt ?
Yes, the bet is that the ECB will ramp up QE to weaken the Euro and bond prices will rise. Or, in the case of holding to redemption, Portugal won't default and you can take 2.98% per year on your investment. Much better than interest rates.
Bit unfair on him. He was just on a hunt, and happened across a naked lady who took umbrage.
Mr. kle4, I'm fairly relaxed about most such things, but do have some pet hates. Archers apparently all drawing back their bows and just holding it there is just ridiculous.
What's the correct verb to launch an arrow?
Don't you fire arrows? But perhaps we should borrow from the French and 'flesh an arrow'. Seems to conjure up a more graphic picture of what actually happens when bow hunting.
I always use 'loose'.
'loose' just seems so un-kinetic.
Let loose the dogs of war? Seems pretty kinetic to me.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
So much of the gilt market is starting to remind me of the Big Short. It is blindingly obvious most of our sovereigns are irredeemably insolvent and only likely to become more so but people are desperate to lend them ever more money at ever tighter margins. It really is madness if you assume that the rules of the game still apply. The default (hah) assumption is therefore that they do not.
As I said, it feels like a one way bet.
Forgive me, what is 'the bet' ?
Buying portugese debt ?
Yes, the bet is that the ECB will ramp up QE to weaken the Euro and bond prices will rise. Or, in the case of holding to redemption, Portugal won't default and you can take 2.98% per year on your investment. Much better than interest rates.
And right on queue, the ECB minutes are all about raising QE to €90bn per month and lowering the repo rate to -0.5%, how the German banks will survive that I don't know, but anyone who wants to brave the moral hazard should look at EU periphery debt for easy yield.
Spain was under 1% out to 10 years already, and Italy wasn't much more
Portugal would be my bet. 2.98% yield in 10y paper. Not going to find that easily elsewhere.
So much of the gilt market is starting to remind me of the Big Short. It is blindingly obvious most of our sovereigns are irredeemably insolvent and only likely to become more so but people are desperate to lend them ever more money at ever tighter margins. It really is madness if you assume that the rules of the game still apply. The default (hah) assumption is therefore that they do not.
As I said, it feels like a one way bet.
Forgive me, what is 'the bet' ?
Buying portugese debt ?
Yes, the bet is that the ECB will ramp up QE to weaken the Euro and bond prices will rise. Or, in the case of holding to redemption, Portugal won't default and you can take 2.98% per year on your investment. Much better than interest rates.
Pennies and steamrollers come to mind
Compared to the negative rates on offer elsewhere, I'll take the pennies!
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. There are going to be costs from leaving and this was something that the leave campaign conceded, to their credit. Remember Boris' hockey stick analogy? Neither side has lost any face yet, and the country hasn't lost much money yet. Brexit is a long term project and it will be 10 or 20 years before we can even begin to assess what its impacts are. We might all have to modify our opinions in the light of what happens. But if the UK starts slipping down the international league table relative to our European partners I think the idea that Brexit was a good idea will get steadily harder to sustain. That's when you'll start to find it hard to find anyone who ever supported Brexit - or at least whatever kind of Brexit we actually undertook. If it doesn't I suspect nobody will change their minds - we just won't talk about it. Don't expect anyone to confess they got it wrong.
Strange, I remember Osborne saying we'd need an emergency budget due to how calamitous a Brexit would be. No talk of the effects being so subtle that you'd need 10 or 20 years to assess them!
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. .
Just read the Times write up on the retail sales figures, at the end there is a comment from Sam Tombs of Pantheon, it reads as if he is willing the country to contract and fall to bits. It's comments like his which make me think that there is a small proportion of bitter remainers who want the economy to fail so the vote is reversed.
We've had two relatively positive pieces if hard data (not sentiment based indicators) and it feels like the small section of bitter remainers are now trying to make it fit their narrative of a stalling economy rather than change their narrative to suit the data.
I think there's also an element of personal credibility and reputations being on the line. It's tremendously hard to admit to a personal mistake or misapprehension.
I noticed a fair few 'just wait 'til the August numbers' asides in the Telegraph coverage.
Leavers would do better to drop this 'bitter remainers' trope and the related 'remoaners'. There are going to be costs from leaving and this was something that the leave campaign conceded, to their credit. Remember Boris' hockey stick analogy? Neither side has lost any face yet, and the country hasn't lost much money yet. Brexit is a long term project and it will be 10 or 20 years before we can even begin to assess what its impacts are. We might all have to modify our opinions in the light of what happens. But if the UK starts slipping down the international league table relative to our European partners I think the idea that Brexit was a good idea will get steadily harder to sustain. That's when you'll start to find it hard to find anyone who ever supported Brexit - or at least whatever kind of Brexit we actually undertook. If it doesn't I suspect nobody will change their minds - we just won't talk about it. Don't expect anyone to confess they got it wrong.
Strange, I remember Osborne saying we'd need an emergency budget due to how calamitous a Brexit would be. No talk of the effects being so subtle that you'd need 10 or 20 years to assess them!
Yep excuses coming thick and fast already
I am afraid I didn't realise anybody was still listening to George Osbourne's economic predictions as late as this summer. I've been ignoring him for years.
Comments
No loose there
The USOC must be going nuts, it will turn into a full on diplomatic incident if the Brazilians aren't careful. I don't understand this mentality at all, it's like arresting women who report being raped in the Middle East.
Buying portugese debt ?
2.98 / doesn't seem so great, wouldn't buying gold be a better bet following this logic, as the 'insolvency' seeps out slowly with lower buying power of the major currencies ?
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