Looking forward on the economy, many people (including most economists who are publishing forecasts) seem to be looking down the wrong end of the telescope. There's no point trying to estimate the economic effects of Brexit without first trying to get a good hold on the political aspects. For example, a scenario where we rapidly come to an amicable agreement with our EU friends which provides fullish access to the Single Market, and where the WTO tariff and quota schedules are rapidly sorted out, will be economically hugely different from a scenario where it all becomes acrimonious or simply bogged down in uncertainty for years. As yet, there's virtually no clarity on how that will turn out, so economic forecasts have to be taken with even more bucketloads of salt than usual.
If (for once) you are correct then you have obliterated the credibility of Osborne's Treasury forecasts that were widely quoted by REMAIN campaigners.
Actually no. The main widely-quoted Treasury forecasts were about the final position once the uncertainty is resolved, not how we get there over the next two or three years. If you recall (assuming that you bothered to read them, rather than just trashing them blind like most Leavers), they considered three main scenarios.
It was one of the curious features of the economic forecasting that the long-term forecasts were in some ways easier than the short-term forecasts, which depend so much on the length of the political uncertainty. I think that remains the case.
They may have considered 3 senarios but Osborne quoted just one. A net loss of £4,300 a family. A misleading statement akin to lying. But then you label "like most Leavers" as if Leavers were afflicted by some common disease that common people tend to get. "Richard_Nabavi 2 june 16 .... My central forecast is still something around 56% or so Remain, and I still expect a shift towards the status quo in the actual referendum, " wtf was that forecast based on? Deep insight? political modelling? I set up a very basic spreadsheet based on key assumptions for the main GE2015 voters and I entered the results in the political betting competition with a forecast of 53.65% .... for LEAVE. I was of course out by 1.75%.
"Labour leadership challenger Owen Smith has suggested the so-called Islamic State could be involved in negotiations with the West in the future."
If Hillary had said this, even Trump would be odds-on for the White House. In these negotiations, what would the West offer? A few teenage girls every year? We'll let you behead a few Christians now and again?
And even dafter, what would IS relent on? They are a death cult, it's convert to their branch of Islam or die.
It's a serious question and a foot in the mouth moment from Smith. Jezza is bonkers, but he'll make hay from this.
"Labour leadership challenger Owen Smith has suggested the so-called Islamic State could be involved in negotiations with the West in the future."
If Hillary had said this, even Trump would be odds-on for the White House. In these negotiations, what would the West offer? A few teenage girls every year? We'll let you behead a few Christians now and again?
And even dafter, what would IS relent on? They are a death cult, it's convert to their branch of Islam or die.
It's a serious question and a foot in the moth moment from Smith. Jezza is bonkers, but he'll make hay from this.
Smith was very stupid and clearly his position (since clarified) is untenable, but Corbyn said exactly the same earlier this year and is not capable of making hay from it. Given his support for the IRA, Hamas, Stop the War and so on, he does not want to get into an argument on those issues. Smith has provided a gift to the Tories, not to the hard left.
It might be a good idea for Smith to share his media commitments with other top Labour MPs in his Shadow Cabinet if he wins.
Looking forward on the economy, many people (including most economists who are publishing forecasts) seem to be looking down the wrong end of the telescope. There's no point trying to estimate the economic effects of Brexit without first trying to get a good hold on the political aspects. For example, a scenario where we rapidly come to an amicable agreement with our EU friends which provides fullish access to the Single Market, and where the WTO tariff and quota schedules are rapidly sorted out, will be economically hugely different from a scenario where it all becomes acrimonious or simply bogged down in uncertainty for years. As yet, there's virtually no clarity on how that will turn out, so economic forecasts have to be taken with even more bucketloads of salt than usual.
If (for once) you are correct then you have obliterated the credibility of Osborne's Treasury forecasts that were widely quoted by REMAIN campaigners.
Leaving the EU is not a single outcome.
We could decide to leave the WTO and impose 50% tariffs on all goods and services imported into the UK, for example. It would be economically disastrous, but we could.
Indeed, the range of possible outcome - from significantly richer to meaningfully poorer - is much wider than it was, simply because so much more is in our control than previously. Should Jeremy Corbyn become PM (which please God he won't), he would be able to do much more damage to the UK out the EU, than he would have done with us in,
If we rapidly agree a free trade deal with the EU, along the lines of something between where Switzerland (or even Norway is) and "Canada Plus", then I would expect that the Treasury forecasts will be unduly pessimistic.
If, on the other hand, we're still negotiating and the end destination is unclear at the beginning of 2018 (will we have passporting? will be going to WTO tariff rates?), then I would expect a meaningfully negative impact on investment decisions, and current forecasts - which are for a bounceback in growth in 2018 - might be excessively optimistic.
Furthermore, I would not underestimate the impact of a possible housing slowdown on the UK economy. Not only is construction a meaningful portion of economic output but the banks' solvency is based around current house prices, and consumer spending is supported by 'the wealth effect'.
I firmly believe that 10 years from now, few will regret Brexit. But it is incredibly Pollyanna-ish to believe that we get from here to there without problems.
"Smith has provided a gift to the Tories, not to the hard left."
You're probably right.
The problem is that even if he rows back asap, it was a statement made by a child carried away with his own rhetoric. Even Trump would know better. And it says a lot for the idiocy, that Jezza can seem almost normal by comparison.
There are sensible Labour MPs, why did they pick out the village idiot? Did he take a dive?
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
I'm very pleased by the figures. They are excellent, and a great send-off for Osborne. What a superb Chancellor he was.
The figures have absolutely zilch to tell us about Brexit, of course.
Why is it that any good figures "tell us zilch about Brexit" yet any bad figures however minuscule a move in the wrong direction proves beyond any doubt Remainers were absolutely correct in all respects.....
Conlan launched a furious, expletive-laden tirade live on Irish broadcaster RTE immediately after he dropped a points verdict to Russia's Vladimir Nikitin.
The reigning world champion called AIBA officials 'f****** cheats' and 'cheating b******s' during his post-fight interview, and even tweeted Russian president Vladimir Putin to ask: 'Hey Vlad, how much did they charge you bro??'.
Conlan's decision came 24 hours after a controversial verdict in the men's heavyweight final went the way of another Russian, Evgeny Tischenko.
Looking forward on the economy, many people (including most economists who are publishing forecasts) seem to be looking down the wrong end of the telescope. There's no point trying to estimate the economic effects of Brexit without first trying to get a good hold on the political aspects. For example, a scenario where we rapidly come to an amicable agreement with our EU friends which provides fullish access to the Single Market, and where the WTO tariff and quota schedules are rapidly sorted out, will be economically hugely different from a scenario where it all becomes acrimonious or simply bogged down in uncertainty for years. As yet, there's virtually no clarity on how that will turn out, so economic forecasts have to be taken with even more bucketloads of salt than usual.
If (for once) you are correct then you have obliterated the credibility of Osborne's Treasury forecasts that were widely quoted by REMAIN campaigners.
Leaving the EU is not a single outcome. ...................................etc............. I firmly believe that 10 years from now, few will regret Brexit. But it is incredibly Pollyanna-ish to believe that we get from here to there without problems.
rcs "Leaving the EU is not a single outcome." TC = true. rcs = "I firmly believe that 10 years from now, few will regret Brexit. But it is incredibly Pollyanna-ish to believe that we get from here to there without problems." TC = I agree. But there is a world of difference between accepting some problems and minor blips in a calm and balanced, dare I say mature manner and the incessant propaganda of turning any minor sign of an issue into a calamity that will bring about the End of Days. The Economist, FT and Guardian are amongst the worst proponents of this.
"Richard_Nabavi 2 june 16 .... My central forecast is still something around 56% or so Remain, and I still expect a shift towards the status quo in the actual referendum, " wtf was that forecast based on? Deep insight? political modelling? I set up a very basic spreadsheet based on key assumptions for the main GE2015 voters and I entered the results in the political betting competition with a forecast of 53.65% .... for LEAVE. I was of course out by 1.75%.
It was based on the polls, plus political judgement, in exactly the same way that my GE forecast immediately before polling day - which was miles more accurate than most pople's - was. In this event, I judged the likely movement wrongly.
You created a spreadsheet. How clever of you. And you guessed some numbers to plug into it in order to get some spurious accuracy. In this case your guess was better than mine. Good for you, but it's still a guess.
As for the Treasury forecasts, they were trying to quote a figure which people could relate to. I think that was very sensible - there seemed to be a feeling amongst many ordinary people that the economic consequences wouldn't affect them, and that GDP was an abstract concept of interest only to bankers.
Many Leavers are unbelievably tedious in flinging around accusations of lying. I don't know why Leavers particularly are prone to this silly and unpleasant trait.
Conlan launched a furious, expletive-laden tirade live on Irish broadcaster RTE immediately after he dropped a points verdict to Russia's Vladimir Nikitin.
The reigning world champion called AIBA officials 'f****** cheats' and 'cheating b******s' during his post-fight interview, and even tweeted Russian president Vladimir Putin to ask: 'Hey Vlad, how much did they charge you bro??'.
Conlan's decision came 24 hours after a controversial verdict in the men's heavyweight final went the way of another Russian, Evgeny Tischenko.
It is time to ban Russia from all sports - minimum of 5 years. No hosting, no participating, nothing.
And a zero tolerance of all drug users - lifetime bans are the only way to go.
Time to clean up sport.
Won't happen - the corruption is too deeply embedded.
Conlan launched a furious, expletive-laden tirade live on Irish broadcaster RTE immediately after he dropped a points verdict to Russia's Vladimir Nikitin.
The reigning world champion called AIBA officials 'f****** cheats' and 'cheating b******s' during his post-fight interview, and even tweeted Russian president Vladimir Putin to ask: 'Hey Vlad, how much did they charge you bro??'.
Conlan's decision came 24 hours after a controversial verdict in the men's heavyweight final went the way of another Russian, Evgeny Tischenko.
It is time to ban Russia from all sports - minimum of 5 years. No hosting, no participating, nothing.
And a zero tolerance of all drug users - lifetime bans are the only way to go.
Time to clean up sport.
Won't happen - the corruption is too deeply embedded.
What I find incredible is, they are totally banned from the Paralympics, but were allowed to compete here. One organisation had the balls to do what is right and the other, well...
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
I'm very pleased by the figures. They are excellent, and a great send-off for Osborne. What a superb Chancellor he was.
The figures have absolutely zilch to tell us about Brexit, of course.
Why is it that any good figures "tell us zilch about Brexit" yet any bad figures however minuscule a move in the wrong direction proves beyond any doubt Remainers were absolutely correct in all respects.....
Only asking?
They don't. As I've said many times, we'll need to wait many months before we can provide a sensible assessment. At the moment, we are simply seeing the expected very short-term effects on sterling, the markets and business confidence surveys, but those don't tell us very much that we didn't already know.
Conlan launched a furious, expletive-laden tirade live on Irish broadcaster RTE immediately after he dropped a points verdict to Russia's Vladimir Nikitin.
The reigning world champion called AIBA officials 'f****** cheats' and 'cheating b******s' during his post-fight interview, and even tweeted Russian president Vladimir Putin to ask: 'Hey Vlad, how much did they charge you bro??'.
Conlan's decision came 24 hours after a controversial verdict in the men's heavyweight final went the way of another Russian, Evgeny Tischenko.
It is time to ban Russia from all sports - minimum of 5 years. No hosting, no participating, nothing.
And a zero tolerance of all drug users - lifetime bans are the only way to go.
Time to clean up sport.
Won't happen - the corruption is too deeply embedded.
What I find incredible is, they are totally banned from the Paralympics, but were allowed to compete here. One organisation had the balls to do what is right and the other, well...
Absolutely - the IPC did the right thing. The IOC are heading towards FIFA levels of awfulness.
Martyn Zeigler Rio's ticketing director told me two weeks ago it had sold 29% of Paralympics tickets. Rio 2016 spokesman has just confirmed it is only 12%
and
Sporting Intelligence @RobHarris@pkelso IOC hoping 'low global TV audience' pips 'Corrupt senior IOC official nabbed (finally)' and 'Boxing: as bent as believed'
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
I'm very pleased by the figures. They are excellent, and a great send-off for Osborne. What a superb Chancellor he was.
The figures have absolutely zilch to tell us about Brexit, of course.
Why is it that any good figures "tell us zilch about Brexit" yet any bad figures however minuscule a move in the wrong direction proves beyond any doubt Remainers were absolutely correct in all respects.....
Only asking?
We won't be able to evaluate the impact of Brexit until at least a couple of years after it actually happens. Which appears to be well into the next decade, for sure.
Smith was very stupid and clearly his position (since clarified) is untenable, but Corbyn said exactly the same earlier this year and is not capable of making hay from it. Given his support for the IRA, Hamas, Stop the War and so on, he does not want to get into an argument on those issues. Smith has provided a gift to the Tories, not to the hard left.
I think you're right that Smith was in Corbyn's footsteps, and I'm not especially shocked by his general observation that to end wars you usually have to talk to someone in the end (if only to accept their surrender!) - this may be a rare exception where you can just crush the enemy, but that's quite rare.
But it's the kind of easily-misrepresented comment that Corbyn used to do frequently, and was struck by the crisp brevity that he said no to the same question. As with some other things (his tie and collar at a trivial level), he's learned from experience.
Martyn Zeigler Rio's ticketing director told me two weeks ago it had sold 29% of Paralympics tickets. Rio 2016 spokesman has just confirmed it is only 12%
and
Sporting Intelligence @RobHarris@pkelso IOC hoping 'low global TV audience' pips 'Corrupt senior IOC official nabbed (finally)' and 'Boxing: as bent as believed'
I wonder who has been buying all these super expensive touted tickets? I mean it isn't like there has been a rush on for any event.
Mr. Eagles, there were fools and wise men on both sides. I'm still waiting for those promised interest rates rises.
It was the threat of a major interest rate rises that gave me a little doubt about which way to vote. But it has turned out that it was just another great big lie from Osborne and Carney. Only one of them lost their job over it.
Furthermore, I would not underestimate the impact of a possible housing slowdown on the UK economy. Not only is construction a meaningful portion of economic output but the banks' solvency is based around current house prices, and consumer spending is supported by 'the wealth effect'. [snip]
The effect on housing is indeed one of the big unknowns in this. I do wonder whether the fears have been overdone. Looking at what is happening to the stock market (partly because of the fall in sterling, and partly central bank intervention), and with near-zero interest rates and direct support for the mortgage market, housing might start looking less over-valued compared with other assets.
Of course this doesn't help young people looking to buy, unless they've got well-off parents. But the price is set at the margin.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
"and I'm not especially shocked by his general observation that to end wars you usually have to talk to someone in the end"
World War Two? Unconditional surrender.
But the fight against ISIS isn't a war in the conventional sense and you know it. So the ISIS leader decides to renounce violence ... are you serious? How long would be remain alive? 0.3 seconds?
It's worthy of Jezza, but worse, it suggests that Labour in general have their head up their own arse. It's not a good look.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
"Smith has provided a gift to the Tories, not to the hard left."
You're probably right.
The problem is that even if he rows back asap, it was a statement made by a child carried away with his own rhetoric. Even Trump would know better. And it says a lot for the idiocy, that Jezza can seem almost normal by comparison.
There are sensible Labour MPs, why did they pick out the village idiot? Did he take a dive?
Smith was the right choice, given that Nandy said she would not run. Iraq ruled out many viable contenders.
Of course that is not what he said - but clickbait headlines are part of life.
His point is a very valid one. There are very few real Roma(ny?) travellers. There are a lot of people who choose that way of life without any minority heritage.
Time to be honest about such things and to stop pandering.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
Funny, but I don't remember us negotiating with Genghis Khan at all. Our bad. Clearly Jezza and Owen weren't around then to lead the talks (once they'd renounced violence, of course).
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
Mr. Eagles, my specific point was on the customs union.
Arguing a democratic vote should be respected in name only is not something with which I agree. There's a range of options for our departure (obviously, only partly within our gift because it'll be a negotiation). Removing the EU flags from official buildings and doing very little else is not acceptable.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
Yes, those are the ones. We'd been hoping to get them back with a profit, but looking at the effect of Brexit on bank share prices, that's looking unlikely now.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
Mr. Eagles, there were fools and wise men on both sides. I'm still waiting for those promised interest rates rises.
It was the threat of a major interest rate rises that gave me a little doubt about which way to vote. But it has turned out that it was just another great big lie from Osborne and Carney. Only one of them lost their job over it.
Quantitative Easing pushes interest rates lower. It's a desperate measure that is used only in times of crisis such as the 2008/09 recession and post Brexit. It has to be paid for in some manner in the future.
Mr. Eagles, my specific point was on the customs union.
Arguing a democratic vote should be respected in name only is not something with which I agree. There's a range of options for our departure (obviously, only partly within our gift because it'll be a negotiation). Removing the EU flags from official buildings and doing very little else is not acceptable.
Mr. Mark, nigh on inevitable.
I'm saying Leave never actually specified what sort of Brexit they wanted.
Let us remember Boris Johnson moaned like a whore that Cameron didn't set out what Brexit meant.
Mr. Eagles, my specific point was on the customs union.
Arguing a democratic vote should be respected in name only is not something with which I agree. There's a range of options for our departure (obviously, only partly within our gift because it'll be a negotiation). Removing the EU flags from official buildings and doing very little else is not acceptable.
Mr. Mark, nigh on inevitable.
I'm saying Leave never actually specified what sort of Brexit they wanted.
Let us remember Boris Johnson moaned like a whore that Cameron didn't set out what Brexit meant.
And you're still re-moaning about the Referendum result!
At a time of national pride that most on here welcome in the achievements at the Olympics, I missed this article from 2014 on the subject of patriotism and the smear of "little englanders", written, surprisingly, by a Lib Dem, Stephen Tall.
"Liberalism is about recognising individuality and promoting community – whether at family, village, town, city, county, national or international level. There’s nothing wrong with believing in Great Britain. But there’s nothing wrong with believing in England being Great either."
Mr. Eagles, my specific point was on the customs union.
Arguing a democratic vote should be respected in name only is not something with which I agree. There's a range of options for our departure (obviously, only partly within our gift because it'll be a negotiation). Removing the EU flags from official buildings and doing very little else is not acceptable.
Mr. Mark, nigh on inevitable.
I'm saying Leave never actually specified what sort of Brexit they wanted.
Let us remember Boris Johnson moaned like a whore that Cameron didn't set out what Brexit meant.
And you're still re-moaning about the Referendum result!
No, I want Brexit, I'd like people to sort it out PDQ.
Mr. Eagles, my specific point was on the customs union.
Arguing a democratic vote should be respected in name only is not something with which I agree. There's a range of options for our departure (obviously, only partly within our gift because it'll be a negotiation). Removing the EU flags from official buildings and doing very little else is not acceptable.
Mr. Mark, nigh on inevitable.
I'm saying Leave never actually specified what sort of Brexit they wanted.
Let us remember Boris Johnson moaned like a whore that Cameron didn't set out what Brexit meant.
And you're still re-moaning about the Referendum result!
No, I want Brexit, I'd like people to sort it out PDQ.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
Yes, those are the ones. We'd been hoping to get them back with a profit, but looking at the effect of Brexit on bank share prices, that's looking unlikely now.
Not wishing to score a point, is not the latest problem for the Banks the cut by the BoE in interest rates? To me that cut was unnecessary and creates more panic in the markets than would a statement of no change.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
And where's yer George now?
(and yer Dave for good measure?)
Osborne is about to earn squillions on the lecture circuit.
I've also written a thread about him for next week and offer him some sagacious career advice, I consider it my best ever PB thread.
Dave is chillaxing, and I believe working on his memoirs.
''Not wishing to score a point, is not the latest problem for the Banks the cut by the BoE in interest rates? To me that cut was unnecessary and creates more panic in the markets than would a statement of no change.''
I thought it was contemptible decision. If Carney has to reverse it in, say, six months, and even go in the opposite direction thereafter, he should resign. He should go anyway, for me.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
Not wishing to score a point, is not the latest problem for the Banks the cut by the BoE in interest rates? To me that cut was unnecessary and creates more panic in the markets than would a statement of no change.
That hasn't helped, but bank share prices collapsed before that.
Like you, I'm not sure that the BoE action is wise. It's a difficult judgement for them, but I think we've probably reached or exceeded the 'pushing on a string' point, not to mention the knock-on effects on pension-scheme deficits, and the diversion of investment into pushing up bond and other asset prices.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
And where's yer George now?
(and yer Dave for good measure?)
Osborne is about to earn squillions on the lecture circuit.
I've also written a thread about him for next week and offer him some sagacious career advice, I consider it my best ever PB thread.
Dave is chillaxing, and I believe working on his memoirs.
Osborne is about to earn squillions on the lecture circuit.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
£10 billion is a small figure? A rounding error.
So why did you Leavers get so exercised over our £10 bn or so net contribution to the EU?
I mean, as per you, it isn't something the country should even worry about.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
£10bn? Pah! That's only the size of the entire agricultural sector, or ten times the size of the fishing industry.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
Not wishing to score a point, is not the latest problem for the Banks the cut by the BoE in interest rates? To me that cut was unnecessary and creates more panic in the markets than would a statement of no change.
That hasn't helped, but bank share prices collapsed before that.
Like you, I'm not sure that the BoE action is wise. It's a difficult judgement for them, but I think we've probably reached or exceeded the 'pushing on a string' point, not to mention the knock-on effects on pension-scheme deficits, and the diversion of investment into pushing up bond and other asset prices.
Interest rate and tax cuts are basically spent weapons.
HMG needs to shell out some readies on infrastructure and pay for it by tax reform.
The proposal to make tax advisors liable for their advice looks a good one imo.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
£10bn? Pah! That's only the size of the entire agricultural sector, or ten times the size of the fishing industry.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
Post war Britain has been a tale of two halves: Managed decline and incoherent industrial policy outside the EU and progressive growth in confidence and dynamism as part of the EU. The political nature of the project which is so much derided by its critics may well prove to be the thing we miss most once we're back on the outside looking in.
Interesting move in USA - wages started to move up at starter level in law firms.
"Cravath’s announcement that the firm would raise associate salaries has dominated water cooler talk around the legal industry for the past two months. The list of firms that immediately followed Cravath’s lead and those that didn’t was closely scrutinized. Any firms that delayed announcing salary increases were subjected to conjecture and scorn, with open questions asked about the health of the firm and its commitment to associates. In the end, nearly every Am Law 50 firm fell into line and accepted Cravath’s new salary structure, or a slightly modified version of it, as its own."
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
£10 billion is a small figure? A rounding error.
So why did you Leavers get so exercised over our £10 bn or so net contribution to the EU?
I mean, as per you, it isn't something the country should even worry about.
£10bn at 38% net rate of tax is £3.8bn, plus I don't think that was £10bn income, rather £10bn in low margin trading which is quite a small figure.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
That's far too French for my liking.
Since when was Admiral Byng French ?
It was the use of the French language.
Mind you, I've written an upcoming thread partly in French.
Headline is 'Le Royaume-Uni est insulaire et maritime'
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I don't want to fight old battles, but "we might gain a lot more from being outside the EU regulatory system" is not even wrong.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
Post war Britain has been a tale of two halves: Managed decline and incoherent industrial policy outside the EU and progressive growth in confidence and dynamism as part of the EU. The political nature of the project which is so much derided by its critics may well prove to be the thing we miss most once we're back on the outside looking in.
Are you living in a parallel Britain ?
The only dynamic part of the EU is the Germanosphere and its euro subsidised businesses.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
It is not the direct cost. It is the having to comply with EU regs (the ones @MaxPB thinks we would be better off without) in order to do our business. It is the having to follow whatever EU regs are decided in Brussels without our input. It is the having to open a Paris office to be able to sell into the EU without the concomitant UK compliance. And it is perhaps having to comply with a whole new set of UK regs.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
would these be the tax revenues we all had to hand back to bail out the banks ?
I'd have let the banks fail.
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
yes , but we didnt and HMG dumped all the debt on the taxpayer. Osborne then made it worse by giving a nod and a wink to his mates that none of them would suffer too much.
I've spent the afternoon at a presentation on the Banking and FS industry in a post Brexit world, one bit of datum you'd have loved.
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
he'd have been safer letting a pile of the senior ones go to jail pour encourager les autres. It would have saved stacks of pointless legislation.
That's far too French for my liking.
Since when was Admiral Byng French ?
It was the use of the French language.
Mind you, I've written an upcoming thread partly in French.
Headline is 'Le Royaume-Uni est insulaire et maritime'
Isnt that from Hollande's speech when Dave got him to threaten us ?
First Francois, then Obama if youd have got them to say never use AV we;d have voted for electoral reform by now.
Not wishing to score a point, is not the latest problem for the Banks the cut by the BoE in interest rates? To me that cut was unnecessary and creates more panic in the markets than would a statement of no change.
That hasn't helped, but bank share prices collapsed before that.
Like you, I'm not sure that the BoE action is wise. It's a difficult judgement for them, but I think we've probably reached or exceeded the 'pushing on a string' point, not to mention the knock-on effects on pension-scheme deficits, and the diversion of investment into pushing up bond and other asset prices.
I view most of our largest banks as old, unchanging, locked into ways of operating and newer rivals will eat their lunch.
Mr. Eagles, you may think a BINO would be fine and dandy [ahem], but it could cause serious ructions within the blues as well as providing a perfect platform for purple resurgence.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
Let us see how you cope without the tax revenues of the City of London and the financial services industry as a whole.
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
Except that will never happen. The passport value has been grossly misjudged IMO, the trade we may lose to Dublin will be smaller than expected and we might gain a lot more from being outside of the EU regulatory system and out of ECJ jurisdiction. Making sweeping judgements about losing whole industries is premature at best.
I saw a few weeks ago that the cost of losing passporting to the City might be as much as £10bn per annum. That is so small a figure in the business conducted as to be the equivalent of a rounding error. A pisser if your business depends on it, of course, but not something the country should even worry about.
£10 billion is a small figure? A rounding error.
So why did you Leavers get so exercised over our £10 bn or so net contribution to the EU?
I mean, as per you, it isn't something the country should even worry about.
If you are asking me personally, then I cannot recall ever thinking the scale of our contribution was a necessary and sufficient reason for leaving the EU. Now, lets talk about context, the amount of money traded in the City each year is in the trillions. HMG spends a shade over £700bn of taxpayers money every year.
Comments
"Richard_Nabavi 2 june 16 .... My central forecast is still something around 56% or so Remain, and I still expect a shift towards the status quo in the actual referendum, "
wtf was that forecast based on? Deep insight? political modelling?
We could decide to leave the WTO and impose 50% tariffs on all goods and services imported into the UK, for example. It would be economically disastrous, but we could.
Indeed, the range of possible outcome - from significantly richer to meaningfully poorer - is much wider than it was, simply because so much more is in our control than previously. Should Jeremy Corbyn become PM (which please God he won't), he would be able to do much more damage to the UK out the EU, than he would have done with us in,
If we rapidly agree a free trade deal with the EU, along the lines of something between where Switzerland (or even Norway is) and "Canada Plus", then I would expect that the Treasury forecasts will be unduly pessimistic.
If, on the other hand, we're still negotiating and the end destination is unclear at the beginning of 2018 (will we have passporting? will be going to WTO tariff rates?), then I would expect a meaningfully negative impact on investment decisions, and current forecasts - which are for a bounceback in growth in 2018 - might be excessively optimistic.
Furthermore, I would not underestimate the impact of a possible housing slowdown on the UK economy. Not only is construction a meaningful portion of economic output but the banks' solvency is based around current house prices, and consumer spending is supported by 'the wealth effect'.
I firmly believe that 10 years from now, few will regret Brexit. But it is incredibly Pollyanna-ish to believe that we get from here to there without problems.
"Smith has provided a gift to the Tories, not to the hard left."
You're probably right.
The problem is that even if he rows back asap, it was a statement made by a child carried away with his own rhetoric. Even Trump would know better. And it says a lot for the idiocy, that Jezza can seem almost normal by comparison.
There are sensible Labour MPs, why did they pick out the village idiot? Did he take a dive?
It takes an extra special kind of tw8t to make Jeremy Corbyn look tough on terror.
Only asking?
The reigning world champion called AIBA officials 'f****** cheats' and 'cheating b******s' during his post-fight interview, and even tweeted Russian president Vladimir Putin to ask: 'Hey Vlad, how much did they charge you bro??'.
Conlan's decision came 24 hours after a controversial verdict in the men's heavyweight final went the way of another Russian, Evgeny Tischenko.
TC = true.
rcs = "I firmly believe that 10 years from now, few will regret Brexit. But it is incredibly Pollyanna-ish to believe that we get from here to there without problems."
TC = I agree. But there is a world of difference between accepting some problems and minor blips in a calm and balanced, dare I say mature manner and the incessant propaganda of turning any minor sign of an issue into a calamity that will bring about the End of Days. The Economist, FT and Guardian are amongst the worst proponents of this.
You created a spreadsheet. How clever of you. And you guessed some numbers to plug into it in order to get some spurious accuracy. In this case your guess was better than mine. Good for you, but it's still a guess.
As for the Treasury forecasts, they were trying to quote a figure which people could relate to. I think that was very sensible - there seemed to be a feeling amongst many ordinary people that the economic consequences wouldn't affect them, and that GDP was an abstract concept of interest only to bankers.
Many Leavers are unbelievably tedious in flinging around accusations of lying. I don't know why Leavers particularly are prone to this silly and unpleasant trait.
And a zero tolerance of all drug users - lifetime bans are the only way to go.
Time to clean up sport.
Won't happen - the corruption is too deeply embedded.
Leave.EU Wrongly Claims Team GB Is Threatening To Sue To ‘Stop Is Promoting Just How Great We’re Doing’
Only they could tarnish Team GB’s storming success at Rio.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/leave-eu-team-gb-british-olympic-association-rio-2016_uk_57b47a87e4b0edf5a37438c6?
If state sponsored doping won't get a country banned, what will?
I'm still waiting for those promised interest rates rises.
Clinton 42 .. Trump 45
http://www.protectmofamilies.com/news/clinton-trump-poll-081616
I agree it should have happened before. The IOC needs a clear out of the old guard now. Bach failed the movement and tainted the whole games.
If we get a deal as per Michael Roth's suggestions (which some Brexiteers were jizzing themselves inside out over this morning) then we'll be fine.
I'm not sure the Leadbangers will be happy though
Martyn Zeigler
Rio's ticketing director told me two weeks ago it had sold 29% of Paralympics tickets. Rio 2016 spokesman has just confirmed it is only 12%
and
Sporting Intelligence
@RobHarris @pkelso IOC hoping 'low global TV audience' pips 'Corrupt senior IOC official nabbed (finally)' and 'Boxing: as bent as believed'
The smile will have to be surgically removed from my face!
But it's the kind of easily-misrepresented comment that Corbyn used to do frequently, and was struck by the crisp brevity that he said no to the same question. As with some other things (his tie and collar at a trivial level), he's learned from experience.
Tory MP compares travellers to Genghis Khan and says they should not be classed as a vulnerable minority
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/17/tory-mp-compares-travellers-to-genghis-khan-and-says-they-should/
Of course this doesn't help young people looking to buy, unless they've got well-off parents. But the price is set at the margin.
I don't want to vote UKIP at the next General Election. My constituency (currently, obviously it may get rejigged) is a blue-red marginal with a hefty slab of purple support too. Nonsense like staying in the customs union would not endear the Conservative Party to me.
"It was so awful, it made me laugh. Ben Hur Hur Hur...."
"and I'm not especially shocked by his general observation that to end wars you usually have to talk to someone in the end"
World War Two? Unconditional surrender.
But the fight against ISIS isn't a war in the conventional sense and you know it. So the ISIS leader decides to renounce violence ... are you serious? How long would be remain alive? 0.3 seconds?
It's worthy of Jezza, but worse, it suggests that Labour in general have their head up their own arse. It's not a good look.
We should keep going until we have secured enough gold to replace that sold by Gordon Brown....
I'm sure the public will be fine with a few minor restrictions on freedom of movement.
For the greater good.
REMAIN 48%
Suck it up, TSE!
His point is a very valid one. There are very few real Roma(ny?) travellers. There are a lot of people who choose that way of life without any minority heritage.
Time to be honest about such things and to stop pandering.
Surely after the feminist ghostbusters, the sequel should be 'Ben HER'
Funny, but I don't remember us negotiating with Genghis Khan at all. Our bad. Clearly Jezza and Owen weren't around then to lead the talks (once they'd renounced violence, of course).
Martyn Zeigler
Why now 12% not 29% Paralympics tickets sold? - Rio mayor prevented buying 500k tickets to distribute for free so they're available too
True free market capitalist am I.
It is odd, how the bankers really managed to get the likes of Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond crawling up their arses.
Mr. Eagles, my specific point was on the customs union.
Arguing a democratic vote should be respected in name only is not something with which I agree. There's a range of options for our departure (obviously, only partly within our gift because it'll be a negotiation). Removing the EU flags from official buildings and doing very little else is not acceptable.
Mr. Mark, nigh on inevitable.
All women this time.
I look forward to the female-only remake of The Full Monty.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/leaked-document-prompts-german-turkish-diplomatic-spat-160817130351723.html
Let us remember Boris Johnson moaned like a whore that Cameron didn't set out what Brexit meant.
"Liberalism is about recognising individuality and promoting community – whether at family, village, town, city, county, national or international level. There’s nothing wrong with believing in Great Britain. But there’s nothing wrong with believing in England being Great either."
http://www.libdemvoice.org/time-for-nick-clegg-to-ditch-the-great-britain-not-little-england-line-38889.html
George Osborne (pbuh) really did tax the bankers that made the pips squeak, relatively speaking.
(and yer Dave for good measure?)
I've also written a thread about him for next week and offer him some sagacious career advice, I consider it my best ever PB thread.
Dave is chillaxing, and I believe working on his memoirs.
I thought it was contemptible decision. If Carney has to reverse it in, say, six months, and even go in the opposite direction thereafter, he should resign. He should go anyway, for me.
Like you, I'm not sure that the BoE action is wise. It's a difficult judgement for them, but I think we've probably reached or exceeded the 'pushing on a string' point, not to mention the knock-on effects on pension-scheme deficits, and the diversion of investment into pushing up bond and other asset prices.
so once agin he follows in Brown's footsteps.
Hello: have sent you a VM.
So why did you Leavers get so exercised over our £10 bn or so net contribution to the EU?
I mean, as per you, it isn't something the country should even worry about.
HMG needs to shell out some readies on infrastructure and pay for it by tax reform.
The proposal to make tax advisors liable for their advice looks a good one imo.
No sign of a huge, immediate contraction in employment opportunities in the wider economy.
The quarterly migration statistics are due later this month.
"Cravath’s announcement that the firm would raise associate salaries has dominated water cooler talk around the legal industry for the past two months. The list of firms that immediately followed Cravath’s lead and those that didn’t was closely scrutinized. Any firms that delayed announcing salary increases were subjected to conjecture and scorn, with open questions asked about the health of the firm and its commitment to associates. In the end, nearly every Am Law 50 firm fell into line and accepted Cravath’s new salary structure, or a slightly modified version of it, as its own."
Read More: http://www.law.com/sites/2016/08/16/which-law-firms-will-be-hurt-most-by-associate-salary-increases/
Mind you, I've written an upcoming thread partly in French.
Headline is 'Le Royaume-Uni est insulaire et maritime'
The only dynamic part of the EU is the Germanosphere and its euro subsidised businesses.
>£10bn.
First Francois, then Obama if youd have got them to say never use AV we;d have voted for electoral reform by now.